[WW] The Crimson Moon Returns

Mr Bubbles · Post by **Mr Bubbles** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 7:01 pm

Newcastle wrote:
Mr Bubbles wrote:
Newcastle wrote: To be honest, I have three people on the top of my suspect list:
Lassr, Bubbles and Proner.
Can I ask you why you suspect me? What did I ever do to you.
has nothing bout what you might or might not have done to me. It's more along with your actions. Mainly, your posts at the begining of the game had the feel of trying to sow the seeds of doubt on others. It just seemed as if you were trying to plant doubt on folks and see if it would stick. That has simlpy carried with me, and i cant shake that feeling.

am curious why you voted for remus, pulled back, then said something along the lines why it was fishy.

I did voice doubts. I genuinely thought Grund acting Wolfish. I make no excuse for those actions. I voted for Remus more as a reaction and thought about it. Im not sure Remus a wolf. He seemed a lot more serious in this game then in ones in the past. Like he was irritated. Sure this could have been a rouse to detract away from himself, but I've played with him before and right or wrong I thought him innocent. I am not like Grund and analyze as close as he does. That being said I also make sure when I do vote that its the best guess I had, and I just think there are others out there.. More silent types that worry me more then Remus did.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 8:07 pm

I think the priest must come out and then the seer. If no priest than the seer must come out if he has info on 2 living players or at least one wolf. I'll say right now that I am not the priest - not the seer either so don't wait on me to come out.

Pr0ner, Zurai, Tru1cy? Are any of your the priest?

Lassr, Bubbles, Newcastle? Are any of you the seer?

Or if the wolves would kindly step forward we could just get on with this.

Zurai · Post by **Zurai** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 10:58 pm

Austin wrote:Pr0ner, Zurai, Tru1cy? Are any of your the priest?

Lassr, Bubbles, Newcastle? Are any of you the seer?

I am neither the priest nor the seer. I am but a lowly poet, retired to the country for inspiration. I didn't quite expect to land in a town inhabited by murderous savages, though. It's quite put me off my stride.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 11:36 pm

i am not going to say what i am. When it becomes necessary i will. Read into it what you want.

Having said that...

I dont think grund was our seer. He just didnt play as a seer. I think if he were our seer, i think he would have provided us with any information.

If he were a seer, I think he would done a scan on night 1, and would have tried to give us those results. Would he have covertly given us those results or would he have blatantly said what he was? I would tend to think he would have blatantly informed us. It was his one main card to play. I think he would let us know what we were facing. i could be wrong though, i know i would seriously think bout taking it to the grave.

As far as unaqi (i know am mispelling that) - i dont think he was special. From his one game post, nothing in there triggers any reaction for me. There were no blatant hints. I could be wrong though and the wolves got a lucky strike.

If Remus were a special, he would not have killed himself.

Having said that, I think our two specials are alive. This is obvious based on hope, and some reasoning.

Am just curious do you think Grund could have been in contact with the seer? It would have to have been a helluva gamble. Reason i bring this up is that one of grunds last posts is about a trust chain. There are two people whom i think could fill that role..but just speculation.

the more i think about this, the more i think its a good time for the specials to come out. I think if the seer has a wolf, they should seriously think bout coming out. I know it removes the seer, however we then take out a wolf.

I also think if the priest has two live confessional folks, he should come out. That way he can also tell us if remus was a wolf or not (assume he isnt).

This is not a pressure by any means. I simply think if they have relevant information, they should seriously think it over. Do it at your own pace however. Wait for whatever information needs to be discussed.

Main reason I am advocating the specials, is that we HAVE to hit a wolf either today or tomorrow. If we dont hit one by tomorrow evening. We have lost. If the seer does have one, it pretty much buys us one more day.

I think the math works out like this:

scenario 1 (if we get a wolf today)
7 players left

today - lynch 1, wolves get one

tomorrow - 5 players left
lynch one, wolves get one

3 players left
lynch one, wolves get the remaining one

Scenario 2
(assuming 2 wolves left)
7 players left

today - lynch 1, wolves get one

tomorrow - 5 players left
lynch one, wolves get one
GAME OVER

Thats the way i worked it out in my head. If there are any errors, please let me know. Basically, if we get one today, we extend our game 1 day. So we have definitely 2 more lynches left...maybe a third depending how we do.

Was just fiddling with the numbers. Anyway, my two cents right now

And bubbles, thanks for responding. Doesnt get you off the hook though.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 11:41 pm

Austin wrote:I think the priest must come out and then the seer. If no priest than the seer must come out if he has info on 2 living players or at least one wolf. I'll say right now that I am not the priest - not the seer either so don't wait on me to come out.

Pr0ner, Zurai, Tru1cy? Are any of your the priest?

Lassr, Bubbles, Newcastle? Are any of you the seer?

Or if the wolves would kindly step forward we could just get on with this.

Have we had enough discussion on this. If we all start saying who we are not, the wolves are really going to be able to narrow down the next kill. I prefer to wait and see if one of them steps forward first with valuable info.

Like others, I wasn't convinced Remus was a wolf but I was also convinced Grund was so what do I know.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 1:42 am

Austin, why would you want the priest or the seer to come out?

Unless the priest or seer has any information, they need to stay hidden.

FYI, I'm neither the priest, nor the seer. I'm just a candlemaker.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 8:14 am

pr0ner wrote:Austin, why would you want the priest or the seer to come out?

Unless the priest or seer has any information, they need to stay hidden.

FYI, I'm neither the priest, nor the seer. I'm just a candlemaker.

Yeah good point. If he scanned Unagi and tried to PM Grund or something went horribly wrong he should stay put.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:03 am

PLAYERS - My take on things
1. Unagi - Eaten
2. Austin - Innocent
3. Remus West - Lynched
4. Grundbegriff - Eaten
5. Newcastle - Likely Innocent
6. tru1cy - Neutral
7. Lassr - Likely Innocent
8. Mr Bubbles - Likely Innocent
9. pr0ner - Likely wolf
10. Zurai - Likely wolf

If there's one 1 wolf it's
Zurai, Pr0ner or Tru1cy in that order and in my estimation. If there are 2 wolves they're both in that grouping I'd bet.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:46 am

Austin wrote:I think the priest must come out and then the seer. If no priest than the seer must come out if he has info on 2 living players or at least one wolf. I'll say right now that I am not the priest - not the seer either so don't wait on me to come out.

Pr0ner, Zurai, Tru1cy? Are any of your the priest?

Lassr, Bubbles, Newcastle? Are any of you the seer?

Or if the wolves would kindly step forward we could just get on with this.

I'm quoting this again.

Austin, if you're innocent, why would you want both the priest and the seer to come out? The only reason why you'd want the priest and seer to come out without concrete evidence is so that you would know who to eat next.

What makes you think I'm wolf if I'm the one going against wanting the priest and seer to come out (them hidden until they have concrete information is the best course of action if the village has any chance)? What makes you guaranteed innocent if you're making the absolute wrong play?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 12:57 pm

I"m the Seer and I scanned Lassr and Bubbles. They ain't wolves. I'm pretty sure Newcastle is innocent as am I. Tru1cy becomes neutral as he was highly regarded by Grund for some reason but he's still on my short list. I'm confirmable by death tonight or PM tomorrow. That really leaves you and Zurai as the primaries. What say you?

I did try to mention Lassr a bunch yesterday but since figured I'm easily confirmed so so no biggie on that. I've been trying very hard to look unseer-like though. For instance my 'OMG I'm so puzzled by Grund's use of the Kelric innocent villager message" was done to make me look like I'd received a townsfolk/innocent villager PM and his didn't match up. I've been trying to subtly wonder if the seer/priest are alive and such. I just really didn't want to die last night but I won't risk another night.

Here's my info and if the priest is alive he can come forward knowing I'll die tonight. If I'm alive tomorrow vote on who I should PM and it will be done.

Edit: I chose Lassr to scan first as I figured he'd come after me first thing on Day 1.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 1:01 pm

Other thought on Newcastle. He was up to 4 votes and didn't come out as anything. We take this as innocence. I will later, or if someone else can sooner, check back and see if perhaps he was down to fewer than 4 votes when he actually showed. It would be a shame to put too much trust in him IF the evidence is faulty.

tru1cy · Post by **tru1cy** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 1:11 pm

I'm the priest. Grund was a butcher. Review my post and you will see that I used some words to communicate to him that he was our buther

Mr. Bubbles is our Thatcher and likes to peek in on us while fixing our roofs

Remus was a wolf and his trade was weaver

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 1:37 pm

Nice to meet you Mr. Priest.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 3:36 pm

WOW!!!!
Ok that is wow!!! Interesting, very interesting. I just got back from golfing (i know saturday recreationg). SO i am going to take a while (couple of hours) to respond to this. But this floors me. Really really floors me.

That means a whole bunch of people were exposed. Need to go go back through this and see how this adds up. If my scan is correct...then that means...zurai and proner are one of the guilty part. Again this is based on a scan of what just transpired.

I am an innocent villager. If you want i can confirm my identity (well reveal) but that really doesnt do too much...since only the priest or seer would know. In fact am not going to reveal, so that way the priest or seer can tell us tomorrow.

Also, please do not vote yet. Let everyone chime in.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 4:35 pm

ok...

initial response is that I am leaning toward trusting truicy more than austin. This is not to say i dont think austin is credible. it's just my view on it.

In all honesty for the last game day I have thought that truicy was our priest.
(grunds trust factor and something else)

Now, austin being our seer. Interesting, very interesting. I am inclined to trust him, simply because I have no reason to distrust him in this game.

What this also does is get BUbbles off the hook in my eyes. Sorry bubbles..take heart though you are now fully exonerated in my eyes.

PLAYERS matrix according to Newcastle- (borrowed from austin)

KNOWN
1. Unagi - Eaten (innocent)
4. Grundbegriff - Eaten (innocent)
3. Remus West - Lynched (most likely wolf)

Innocent
Bubbles

Most lilkely true
Specials
Truicy - Priest
Austin - seer(?)

Most lilkely innocent
Newcastle - Likely Innocent
Lassr - Likely Innocent

Most likely a fanged one
9. pr0ner - Likely wolf
10. Zurai - Likely wolf

Ok since you were able to double confirm bubbles, I moved him up to innocent. That is the one solid piece that came out of this. I created this matrix trying to add reasonable doubt in it. Simply a way to look at things. I moved myself to likely because even though I know...no one else does.

If Remus was in fact a wolf...that means we have three days to figure this out. provided truicy is correct. I am inclined to believe him.

As for my guilt or innocence. I am an innocent villager. I am not going to reveal my profession, for i am going to allow that for the priest to confirm with me.

Hmm interesting, very interesting. Zurai or Proner, Proner or zurai. Which one is it?

Also Austin, feel free to look up on my past posts, near death voting experience (i believe I was up to 4, before uhm my immpasioned plea). It is perfectly natural to have some doubts in me. I know i am innocent, you dont know it though. However, I would urge the village to focus on wether they believe austin and truicy's claim. Then once they have come to a conclusion about that...then think about the remaining players. I think then we should focus on proner or zurai. Feel free to probe what i have done, i have nothing to hide.

Now, am thinking if there is any deception in both Austin and Truicy's claim. I would be greatly interested in hearing a confirmation from Bubbles as to his profession though.

Ok, also CR question - does the seer have to notify you the night prior whom he wants to PM? Also, when he does a scan, does he get the information on the person's profession?

Zurai · Post by **Zurai** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:25 pm

Alright. From my perspective, and assuming that both Austin and Tru1cy are telling the truth (for the purposes of this post, at least):

KNOWN INNOCENTS:
Austin
Tru1cy
Zurai
Mr. Bubbles
Lassr

DEAD:
Unagi
Remus West
Grundbegriff

REMAINING:
pr0ner
newcastle

Now, a question remains to me: What would be gained from spoofing the seer? How about the priest? I do not believe that the wolves would risk double-outing if they were both still alive, so one or the other (or both of course) almost certainly is telling the truth.

Spoofing the seer means that tru1cy is probably telling the truth, and Austin, pr0ner, newcastle, or lassr are the wolf.

Spoofing the priest means that Austin is probably telling the truth, and tru1cy, pr0ner, or newcastle are the wolf or wolves.

Personally, I fully believe tru1cy. Austin I'm mildly suspicious about, but I'm willing to take him on face value since the final wolf outing himself by claiming to be the seer seems exceedingly risky.

That means that, for the moment, I'm betting on pr0ner being the remaining wolf.

Zurai · Post by **Zurai** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:27 pm

Austin wrote:PLAYERS - My take on things
1. Unagi - Eaten
2. Austin - Innocent
3. Remus West - Lynched
4. Grundbegriff - Eaten
5. Newcastle - Likely Innocent
6. tru1cy - Neutral
7. Lassr - Likely Innocent
8. Mr Bubbles - Likely Innocent
9. pr0ner - Likely wolf
10. Zurai - Likely wolf

If there's one 1 wolf it's
Zurai, Pr0ner or Tru1cy in that order and in my estimation. If there are 2 wolves they're both in that grouping I'd bet.

I'm curious about this, though - why is newcastle "likely innocent"? He remains, with myself and pr0ner, the only living player with no powered corroboration.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:40 pm

Austin the seer, my worst nightmare, I may not be able to lynch him.

Part of me still doesn't trust him but I cannot see an advantage if he's a wolf of coming out right now.

Grund apparently caught the hints tru1cy was dropping about his profession so I think we can trust him.

I still say Zurai.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 6:42 pm

I'm going to agree with Zurai here. Why is Newcastle such a "likely innocent"? He's about as likely to be innocent as Zurai and myself, which is to say, he's unproven. He hasn't been scanned by Austin, and tru1cy doesn't have a confessional of him. His whole "woe is me, real life is too busy, I'm innocent, kill me" play when he was on the brink of the deciding vote in day 1 reeks of a wolf desperate to save his neck.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 6:55 pm

First off Newcastle, I don't get told roles. Just so and so is NOT a WOLF.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 7:07 pm

I had him there because he didn't spoof seer or priest with his head pretty much in the noose. I notedin my postafter coming out that I should really move him down a bit out of likely innocent. I kind of wanted to see what my friends in pink thought about him being green too though.

Again, you only have to trust me today as tomorrow I'll proove myself through death or I suppose by PM'ing Mr. Bubbles.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 7:44 pm

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 7:48 pm

I havent been proven beyond a reasonable doubt, the only thing going for me is my blubbering when i was about get the noose. Who knew emasculating oneself in a game would prove to be a boon? I certainly didnt.

Anyway, if what we have observed is true...truicy and austins roles...then we basically have 3 days left. What that means is that zurai, proner will face the noose...if you guys have doubts about me, If it proves a detriment for the villages analysis, I am more than happy to be swinging in the gallows. I am more interest in a village victory than not. I am lucky in the fact that i know i am an innocent. Therefore, my analysis is centered on two people, unlike most of you folks who have to gauge wether i am innocent or not.

Right now am leaning toward Proner... he seems more kneejerky

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 7:49 pm

+1

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 7:49 pm

Newcastle wrote:I havent been proven beyond a reasonable doubt, the only thing going for me is my blubbering when i was about get the noose. Who knew emasculating oneself in a game would prove to be a boon? I certainly didnt.

Anyway, if what we have observed is true...truicy and austins roles...then we basically have 3 days left. What that means is that zurai, proner will face the noose...if you guys have doubts about me, If it proves a detriment for the villages analysis, I am more than happy to be swinging in the gallows. I am more interest in a village victory than not. I am lucky in the fact that i know i am an innocent. Therefore, my analysis is centered on two people, unlike most of you folks who have to gauge wether i am innocent or not.

Right now am leaning toward Proner... he seems more kneejerky

I'm always happy to string up Pr0ner. He doesn't get my jokes.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 8:03 pm

Assume Newcastle, Pr0ner and zurai are our guilty ones. Assume Remus was a wolf (this is assuming I and Tru1cy are being truthful) and take a look at voting records. who voted for Remus? Who didn't? Who voted with Remus? Who never voted with Remus? Damn I wish Chaos as playing, he'd have done this already.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 8:06 pm

Zurai was the 3rd vote on the Remus lynch. Does this work for or against him? Normally I'd say for, but Remus' suicide makes me wonder...

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 8:12 pm

I'm going with Pr0ner.

Mr Bubbles · Post by **Mr Bubbles** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 8:30 pm

Wow I log out for a while and come back to all of this. Obviously tru1cy has my trust as I am indeed the Thatcher. Pr0ner has my vote. I hope this puts a bit more trust in tru1cy as he is indeed correct. I've been suspicious of pr0ner for a while. Out of all of them he has my vote followed by Zurai.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 9:47 pm

Voting for me is a mistake. I'm just an innocent candlemaker. I'm afraid of the dark; why do you think I make candles?

I think Newcastle is most wolfy to me.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 9:50 pm

i will end up voting for proner. i just want to let folks have a chance to chime in.

Bubbles, thanks for chimming in. That removes ALL doubt i had about truicy, and makes him 100% in my eyes.

I think proner is at 2 right now.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:08 pm

Newcastle wrote:i will end up voting for proner. i just want to let folks have a chance to chime in.

Bubbles, thanks for chimming in. That removes ALL doubt i had about truicy, and makes him 100% in my eyes.

I think proner is at 2 right now.

I'm not sure I get yours or Zurai's reluctance. There are 3 unknowns. Newcastle, Zurai and Pr0ner. One is a wolf. As an innocent I'm jumping on the vote as I know that my death is bad for the village and this is a chance for me to live. On the other hand I guess I can see a wolf wanting to avoid casting the killing vote as it might be used against him the next day and he'll want to stay alive as long as possible...

I'm thinking of changing my vote to Zurai. What say you sir?

I picked Zurai over Newcastle because A) I don't think Newcastle is a wolf and B) Newcastle popped in to comment rather than quietly observing without comment.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:52 pm

Zurai

Zurai · Post by **Zurai** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:53 pm

Austin wrote:I'm thinking of changing my vote to Zurai. What say you sir?

I picked Zurai over Newcastle because A) I don't think Newcastle is a wolf and B) Newcastle popped in to comment rather than quietly observing without comment.

I'm "quietly observing without comment"? Nothing really substantive has happened since I posted my two comments following yours and tru1cy's revelations.

Here's the text for you in case you missed them:

Zurai wrote: Alright. From my perspective, and assuming that both Austin and Tru1cy are telling the truth (for the purposes of this post, at least):

KNOWN INNOCENTS:
Austin
Tru1cy
Zurai
Mr. Bubbles
Lassr

DEAD:
Unagi
Remus West
Grundbegriff

REMAINING:
pr0ner
newcastle

Now, a question remains to me: What would be gained from spoofing the seer? How about the priest? I do not believe that the wolves would risk double-outing if they were both still alive, so one or the other (or both of course) almost certainly is telling the truth.

Spoofing the seer means that tru1cy is probably telling the truth, and Austin, pr0ner, newcastle, or lassr are the wolf.

Spoofing the priest means that Austin is probably telling the truth, and tru1cy, pr0ner, or newcastle are the wolf or wolves.

Personally, I fully believe tru1cy. Austin I'm mildly suspicious about, but I'm willing to take him on face value since the final wolf outing himself by claiming to be the seer seems exceedingly risky.

That means that, for the moment, I'm betting on pr0ner being the remaining wolf.

Zurai wrote: I'm curious about this, though - why is newcastle "likely innocent"? He remains, with myself and pr0ner, the only living player with no powered corroboration.

I've posted the same number of times pr0ner and newcastle have, and with more content to my posts. Turn your witch-hunt elsewhere. I havn't said anything since those two posts because I was waiting for everyone to check in - giving people a chance to step forward and claim to be the priest/seer if they wished.

Now that everyone HAS checked in (<counts heads to make sure> - me austin tru1cy bubbles newcastle pr0ner lassr yep!), I'm going to go with my initial leaning, the same way I did for the prior Remus vote: pr0ner, it's either you or newcastle. I apologize if I have chosen poorly.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:01 pm

austin, honestly, i really want to go back and drudge through the thread to see if anything pops up (pointing to zurai or proner). I think i know what you are doing, and that is to assess 100% if i am innocent. You want to see if i am going to squirm with my votes. That is fine, and i understand that. YOu have to do that, i am an unknown quantity, you might htink i am innocent, you might believe it, but you dont know it. (gah i hope i am not talking myself into the grave here)

Since i believe we have our priest 100%, that means Remus was a wolf. Why did he kill himself? Did he think that his partner was carefully ensconced and would be able to last 3 days to procure a victory? Or was he frustrated at being on the edge of death and wanted to get it over with. I think he probably felt safe that his partner was safe. Now that brings up this fact...how was his partner safe at that vote? Did his partner vote for him (a la Zurai), not vote for him (a la proner) or not vote for him and due to uncertainty (newcastle). I Know i am innocent, you guys dont...hence why i am keeping myself in the equation. I want to be intellectually honest and approach this from not only your guys viewpoint but also mine.

Now forgive me when i say this...but i have to bring it up to simply play devils advocate...again playing devils advocate.

Let's say that Austin is hte other wolf? Whats his game plan? What would be his advantage to coming out? I think to cause confusion. However, it would be a gutsy play now. Real gutsy. He can claim two innocents off the bat. He knows that he has to last 3 days. Could he do it? What if there was a counter claim?

/end devils advocate

having gone through this, and mentally asked myself these. I am inclined to believe that Austin is the Seer. We know he can prove himself (through death or PM). And if he couldnt, he wouldnt not be able to last two nights. It is simply too risky i think. I think the fact that he could be counter claimed would be a detriment, and not enable him to life more than 2 days. I think the remaining wolf HAS to fly under the radar. And I think remus was betting on this. Coming out as the lone remaining wolf would not be a good play.

Also Austin an aside here. I dont think you should state whom you are choosing. Just in case we whiff tonight, and the remaining wolf decides to take out bubbles (i know you and truicy are more of a juicy target...lets simply keep fangy guessing). There are three candidates you could PM: truicy, lassr, and bubbles. Obviously truicy is a risk, so that leaves lassr and bubbles.

The reason I dont want to vote yet. I want to strike true. I want us to hit the wolf. I want people to reflect and chime in with an opinion. An observation made by one of us might be the final straw in terms of deciding guilt. I want to talk ourselves into it. I know we have breathing space of 3 days..with two suspects (odds are very good for us). But, after tonight we lose 1 of our specials...truicy or austin. Tomorrow night (if we whiff again), we lose another.

I could very well vote for Zurai, austin...my prefered candidate is proner though. He seems nervous. Proners vote for me seemed spurred by the past vote. He knows he has to act to save himself. He doesnt cast doubt on Zurai, but looks for the one who doubt could more easily be sown upon (me). Proner has been playing a VERY low key game. Very low key. I think Remus was betting that Proner could still be under the radar. He wasnt making many waves (if i recall correctly), but he was just hanging around on the outskirts.

Also, i think proner would have felt more comfrortable with Grund around as long as remus was here. Once remus was gone, then maybe proner thought it best to take out Grund.

Or maybe Remus thought that the priest would not show up yet, and that he would not be proven a wolf. And hence took the chance that his suicide would hide his pack mate. Hence also all that talk about checking out Unagi.

Just simple ramblings right now, and thouhgts. I am not going to vote tonight. I want to see where people's thinkings are, and their reasons for voting for whom they do.

I am being slow, because I want us to strike true.

However having said that....unless there is a massive wildcard in here, we should win. We have three nights...three suspects (according to the villages view). We have this in the bag.

Zurai · Post by **Zurai** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:14 pm

OK, newcastle has me beat on the content point now

I pretty much agree with him, overall.

At this point, assuming tru1cy is indeed the priest, it is 100% possible for Austin to prove himself as the seer by PMing someone tomorrow or dieing tonight. A wolf, especially a LONE wolf, CANNOT take that risk - it's a gauranteed death sentence for him tomorrow because he has no partner to spoof the seer PM with, and if he comes up with no PMs he's obviously not the seer and thus gallows bait. (Whew, run-on sentence)

As for the assumption that tru1cy is the priest, I believe that is also actually confirmable right now. There are only two wolves; we know this. Mr. Bubbles was confirmed as innocent by Austin AND confirmed that he is the Thatcher to corroborate tru1cy's statement. The "wolf-as-seer" option wouldn't have confirmed Bubbles' innocence, while the "wolf-as-priest" option would have had about a 1/100000 chance to get the profession right, unless his partner was in on it - but in that case Austin would be lieing about Bubbles being innocent, which is completely and totally illogical.

That, to me, pretty much solidifies the fact that Austin, Bubbles, and tru1cy are telling the truth and are known innocents. That also confirms Lassr as an innocent via Austin's scanning.

As I said before, that leaves me, pr0ner, and newcastle as unconfirmed and possibly wolfy. I know for a fact that, while I'm hirsute and like my steaks rare, I don't bay at the moon or eat my fellow townspeople.

That leaves pr0ner and newcastle. IMO, newcastle just plain hasn't been playing like a wolf. He's been out in the spotlight, decisive, and provided a good amount of thoughtful pro-village thinking.

pr0ner hasn't.

Thus, my vote for pr0ner.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:16 pm

Also - whats the case v. Zurai?

Just wanted to fully understand people's votes for him.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:27 pm

I've been sitting here trying to figure out if Austin was a wolf what is his strategy.

If he gets an innocent lynched then we have 5 left tomorrow. He would take out the priest tonight. He would play the "wolf killed the priest so the village would kill me card" if we bought that and hung another innocent and we woke up the next day with Austin alive he'd then play the "wolf wants the village to do it's work and lynch me, wolf wins card."

But Austin should have 2 scans left. You would think he'd hit a wolf (if everyone is telling the truth), if he didn't then it would be obvious it was him. He could say he scanned a villager and then the wolf killed that villager that night but then why would the wolf kill villagers that were still suspect. You'd want to go after the knowns. In that case it would make Austin very suspicious also.

I can't see anyway that this plan would work or if it did it would be a lot less successful than if he just kept his mouth shut.

So, I'm pretty sure Austin is telling the truth but don't be surprised if he is alive tomorrow, that wouldn't mean he's a wolf though.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:36 pm

withdraw Zurai

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:38 pm

Actually...

I have been a bit reckless with my Pr0ner/Zurai votes as I'm not sure which and figured maybe one would screw up under pressure. Keep in mind I don't know anymore than any of you (innocents) right now. I'd hate to have to deal with the moniker Austicide.