[WW] Crimson Moon III - Game ends in a Draw?

[Austin]

I was just sitting here and trying to remember when was the last time I was lynched as an innocent. Been a looooong time♦.

If we lynch you today Lassr, your record will still be intact.

[Austin]

Basing the reason on his Austin vote and also Remus reasoning of a bandwagon emerging. I looked at the Austin vote, and what is interesting is that remus pretty much called it out, and it stopped dead in it’s tracks. The first on there was proner, truicy, unaqi and then Lassr. (I think that is how it went). I think lassr thought ok the wind can blow that way. Also, I think people have a natural suspicion of austin, and hence wolves thought easy candidate. so i think lassr is a bad guy and either proner or truicy potentially. will have to think it through, but the more obvious one is lassr right now.

Thank you.

Notice last night he looked for an out too. I think he's a wolf but "I'm having too much fun with him and I'd miss that... ". No way he'd consider leaving me alive if he really thought I was a wolf. Trouble is he's getting some pressure now and the hairline cracks are becoming crevices. Lassr is not structurally sound. I wouldn't be surprised if he Kelric'd all over the floor.

[Lassr]

I was just sitting here and trying to remember when was the last time I was lynched as an innocent. Been a looooong time♦.

If we lynch you today Lassr, your record will still be intact.

You'll be surprised...well, actually you probably won't be surprised because you know I'm innocent.

Am I at 4 votes now? If we get to 5 then I may commit suicide and vote for myself that way I can at least dig my on grave.

[Austin]

I was just sitting here and trying to remember when was the last time I was lynched as an innocent. Been a looooong time♦.

If we lynch you today Lassr, your record will still be intact.

You'll be surprised...well, actually you probably won't be surprised because you know I'm innocent.

Am I at 4 votes now? If we get to 5 then I may commit suicide and vote for myself that way I can at least dig my on grave.

Is that a threat Hans Brinker?

[Lassr]

I was just sitting here and trying to remember when was the last time I was lynched as an innocent. Been a looooong time♦.

If we lynch you today Lassr, your record will still be intact.

You'll be surprised...well, actually you probably won't be surprised because you know I'm innocent.

Am I at 4 votes now? If we get to 5 then I may commit suicide and vote for myself that way I can at least dig my on grave.

Is that a threat Hans Brinker?

How did you know I stuck my finger in a dyke once...

[Remus West]

How did you know I stuck my finger in a dyke once...

I'm guessing she wasn't happy about that. Next time try a lipstick lesbian, she might just be posing.

[tru1cy]

Still deadlocked. Think I've seen this movie before

[triggercut]

I'd be highly surprised if either Lassr OR Austin was a wolf. I hate the way we've decided it's a "deadlock" and an either/or situation here.

That plays exactly into the hands of the wolves. Those promoting "deadlock" and "stalemate" the most seem the most suspicious to me.

[Lassr]

I'd be highly surprised if either Lassr OR Austin was a wolf. I hate the way we've decided it's a "deadlock" and an either/or situation here.

That plays exactly into the hands of the wolves. Those promoting "deadlock" and "stalemate" the most seem the most suspicious to me.

I would be somewhat surprised if Austin is not a wolf. As I've stated he's played this game like he played another game where he was a wolf. That's really all I have.

Silky was on my radar and so were you triggercut.

I've got to ditch this game for a while as I make my trip. I'll be back tonight.

[Remus West]

I'd be highly surprised if either Lassr OR Austin was a wolf. I hate the way we've decided it's a "deadlock" and an either/or situation here.

That plays exactly into the hands of the wolves. Those promoting "deadlock" and "stalemate" the most seem the most suspicious to me.

Last time it happened like this it was a choice between LordMortis and Sir Real. Both were wolves. Just sayin'.

[Zurai]

I'll be posting my vote tonight. I will have some quiet moments to think. Then we shall send someone to the gallows.

So where's your vote?

[Austin]

I'd be highly surprised if either Lassr OR Austin was a wolf. I hate the way we've decided it's a "deadlock" and an either/or situation here.

That plays exactly into the hands of the wolves. Those promoting "deadlock" and "stalemate" the most seem the most suspicious to me.

I would be somewhat surprised if Austin is not a wolf. As I've stated he's played this game like he played another game where he was a wolf. That's really all I have.

Silky was on my radar and so were you triggercut.

I've got to ditch this game for a while as I make my trip. I'll be back tonight.

Looking back at 2 games where Austin was a wolf I see that he over states numerous times his innocence and brings up being scanned to prove it. He makes connections between posters such as if player A is wolf then he wouldn't be surprised if player B and player C are wolves.

He has not latched onto his innocence in this game so far but he has brought up a scenario earlier where he made connections on who he thought the 3 wolves could be if...

Triggercut is a little suspicious like Remus said and Mr. Bubbles just because he's quiet but that's really not unusual which makes him dangerous.

So I'm sticking with Austin simply because he has shown a few traits that were common in some of his other games where he was the bad guy.

BUT I do agree it's not much to go on right now. Someone give me a better target and I'll consider changing my vote.

Do I have to point out what I'm looking at here or should I just allow him to speak for himself? Explanation available upon request.

[Remus West]

Awww, state it out right. We like to hear your thoughts.

[Austin]

He keeps researching how I've played a bad guy before. I do X, I do Y... whatever. He keeps saying, "OMG! Austin is playing like he has when he's been a wolf!11!!eleventyone!1!"! But he actually names one thing (doesn't link it and I don't even recall what he's talking about) that I do regardless of good or bad role and other's do all the time also. I thought it was pretty transparent.

[Mr Bubbles]

Lassr Im not totally convinced, but its the best I can do at the moment.

[Remus West]

1. Austin - Zurai (w) Unagi (w) Lassr
2. pr0ner - Austin
3. Lassr - Unagi (w) Austin
4. Zurai - Silky
5. tru1cy - Austin
6. Remus West - Silky (w) triggercut (w) Lassr
7. Grundbegriff - eaten
8. Mr Bubbles - Lassr
9. Unagi - Austin
10. triggercut - Silky (w) Remus West (w) Silky (w) Remus West
11. Newcastle - Remus West (w) Lassr
12. Silky - triggercut (w) Lassr

Austin - 4
Silky - 1
Remus West - 1
Lassr - 5

Majority is 6

I believe this is correct.

[Zurai]

If we're not into the night by the time I get home and settled in from work (3-4 hours from now), I guess I'll have to end this. I don't think either Austin or Lassr are wolves, but this day started out slow and never picked up steam.

To that end - and because I'm now alone on Silky and it doesn't look like that'll change - withdraw Silky. I'll check back in a few hours.

[Unagi]

I'm totally torn.
Over the last few pages of posts I have become pretty sure that we are looking at no less than 8 wolves.

The Silky/Triggercut thing is very hard for me to tie down right now. I can't come up with a scenario that I feel comfortable with.

Austin, Remus, and Lassr... Hmm.
Austin's been dropping breadcrumbs, I'm curious if it's purposeful or not - but only time can tell with that.
Remus... One second I'm sure he's clean, the next I remind myself of a few things he said earlier that I promised I wouldn't lose sight of... I'm watching him closely.
Lassr. He made my original suspect list just barely, and reacted as if I set his tail on fire. I've told myself a number of times he's a wolf.
Zurai... I'm almost afraid to bring his name up.

pr0ner,Mr.Bubbles,tru1cy,Newcastle... these will have to be subjects for day2 at this point. I can easily build up my level of suspicion against them, but I can't really articulate any of it beyond reasonable doubt. Hell, I can't really be sure of anything at this point.

So. Since Lassr was on my original list and has only compounded his guilt, I am thinking I may move my vote to him. Since my other two original suspects (Remus and Austin) both have their votes on Lassr, I'm perplexed. To think that I may actually join Austin's charge on Lassr doesn't sit well in my head, but - again, I myself am thinking he's a wolf anyhow, so this may be a good time to act.

I'd like to formally announce that I know this may come across as a wolf move... but since I know that we all know that I hope that we can apply the "He-knew-we-knew-he-knew" counter-rule.
withdraw Austin
Lassr
Please remember I expressed some trepidation.

[Remus West]

[quote="Remus West"]1. Austin - Zurai (w) Unagi (w) Lassr
2. pr0ner - Austin
3. Lassr - Unagi (w) Austin
4. Zurai - Silky (w)
5. tru1cy - Austin
6. Remus West - Silky (w) triggercut (w) Lassr
7. Grundbegriff - eaten
8. Mr Bubbles - Lassr
9. Unagi - Austin (w) Lassr
10. triggercut - Silky (w) Remus West (w) Silky (w) Remus West
11. Newcastle - Remus West (w) Lassr
12. Silky - triggercut (w) Lassr

Austin - 4
Remus West - 1
Lassr - 6

Majority is 6

That seals it. Wish I got to know right away if I were right or not.

[Austin]

That seals it. Wish I got to know right away if I were right or not.

Yeah, that's a big one. I think the priest comes out on Day 3 in this game though. Thoughts?

[Remus West]

Unagi, wolves voting for wolves happens all the time so do not discount any other thing merely based on the voting record. It can help but I find it the least useful frankly. Last game I told pr0ner NOT to vote for me specifically because it was so common for bad guys to vote for each other.

[Remus West]

That seals it. Wish I got to know right away if I were right or not.

Yeah, that's a big one. I think the priest comes out on Day 3 in this game though. Thoughts?

I think he comes forward when his information dictates it not some predetermined time.

[Austin]

That seals it. Wish I got to know right away if I were right or not.

Yeah, that's a big one. I think the priest comes out on Day 3 in this game though. Thoughts?

I think he comes forward when his information dictates it not some predetermined time.

Well I have some thoughts, and typed them out but I guess this is night-speak now so I'll shut up. I don't want to tip any hands.

[Remus West]

Still day until Chaosraven checks in and the lynching takes place.

[Austin]

Still day until Chaosraven checks in and the lynching takes place.

Village votes to Hang one Player. Majority is actual Majority and Irreversible once achieved.

Yeah, technically you're right but if Lassr has 6 votes we might as well treat this as night speak as we won't know anything from the lynch yet anyway.

[Silky]

The scary part is we might not ever know. The seer is usually the man in these games but has some serious competition with the coroner in this rule set.

[Austin]

The scary part is we might not ever know. The seer is usually the man in these games but has some serious competition with the coroner in this rule set.

Yeah Coroner is awesome. Seer is still tops as can give a positive hit. The two together are potentially game winnars. Of course the priest is sort of valuable too... sort of.

[Chaosraven]

After a seemingly endless discussion and much finger-pointing, the Village finally decided to put Lassr to the noose. "Looser" one called. "Tighter" called another. He danced on air and became still.

The Village then headed to bed with questions unanswered

It Is Night.
Wolves must choose a Victim
Seer must choose Scan/Contact
Coroner may choose a body to ID

[Remus West]

The Village then headed to bed with questions unanswered

The rest of the non-wolf village may have, but this helpless innocent is not even thinking about sleep. I'm huddling behind the door with a sharp stick. Or somewhere in my house anyway, might be the door might not. Dirty wolves.

[Chaosraven]

The night erupts in howls and growls, the screams of the unlucky cut short by ripping and chewing noises... when the sun rises tru1cy lay in ragged pieces in the Village Square.

It Is Day
9 Players remain
Majority is 5

[Remus West]

That's not good.

[Grundbegriff]

[Remus West]

Stop that. They didn't leave you a stomach and I'm tired of cleaning up all the damn crushed kernals.

[triggercut]

9 of us left? 7 v 2 if we got lucky, or 6 v 3 if we didn't.

We'd better hope Lassr was a Werewolf, or we're up against it lads.

I will do some analyzing and be back, but my radar is perking hard on Remus West.

[Mr Bubbles]

9 of us left? 7 v 2 if we got lucky, or 6 v 3 if we didn't.

We'd better hope Lassr was a Werewolf, or we're up against it lads.

I will do some analyzing and be back, but my radar is perking hard on Remus West.

Ok.. call me crazy but that just went through my head now. Of course he knows his heads on the block.

[triggercut]

That's not good.

This particular quote set off my radar.

It has been noted on numerous occasions that we villagers have no protection scheme to possibly thwart the nightly werewolf attacks. Given that, we can expect that every night to day turn, we're going to lose a villager, right up until the end of the game.

"That's not good" seems like a bit of a slip. If you're a villager, I think you recognize the stark reality of our situation, and the "not good"-ness of it all is fairly self-apparent. If he was aiming that at the specific loss of tru1cy, it should've been more personal.

"That's not good" looks like the kind of rote "tsk tsk, what a shame" that someone who had something to do with his death would say.

I didn't like the way Remus was shaping the day one vote as a Lassr vs. Austin thing, either....as if other candidates couldn't be considered.

That said....RW isn't my first suspect anymore. The more I think about it, the more I think we have some EXCELLENT information to work from, just within this thread itself, absent the guidance of any of our powereds.

More in a bit.

[triggercut]

Ok. We have some very interesting and solid information.

Bear with me, my brain is swimming right now. I'm going to try to post this with some clarity, so I hope it can be followed.

1. Let us assume that on the first day, we faced 3 werewolves. I highly doubt they'd kill Grund on day one to "throw us off". There's zilch to be gained from it, and I'm pretty sure that it's against the rules. SO: 3 werewolves.

2. Let us also assume that the werewolves would try--within reason--to keep their teammates upright in the game. Since this game doesn't give the village immediate feedback on the guilt or innocence of their lynch victims, defending your wolfpal is probably less risky than in games where the team allegiance is revealed at the lynch.

Given those two things, I think all signs point to the fact that:

Lassr was a villager. Probably unpowered--I hope.

I base this not off any powered information. I base it off simple deduction. Take a look at the day 1 vote as it shook out this morning. Lassr stands at five votes, and resignedly says that he might as well vote for himself. Then--and this is the key to the whole deduction I've made--he gives us the keys to solving this: he says he'll be otherwise occupied for the rest of the day.

Ok. lets take the assumption that Lassr was a werewolf, and shoot it down. Let's say you're on the werewolf team, and you see your teammate Lassr on the verge of hanging. He then announces that he's out for the day. Given that information,

1. It would start off as being extremely unlikely that a werewolf would have an active vote sitting on Lassr, but even if that were the case...

2. When Lassr announced he was leaving, surely any wolf with an active vote on their buddy would've pulled it.

Nothing of the sort happened, of course. Unagi changed his vote, and Lassr bought it.

If Lassr was a werewolf, we can then assume that his two accomplices had votes on other players. Let's look at registered non-Lassr voters.

1. Triggercut voted for Remus. I never bought into Lassr being a werewolf.

2. pr0ner, Lassr, and tru1cy voted for Austin. 2 of those players are now dead. We know one was innocent. I'm 99% sure the other was, too.

3. Zurai pulled his Austin vote at the last minute and didn't register a vote before the lynch.

So then. What we have is this:

Either the other two werewolves are in the set of Zurai, pr0ner, and me....or all three wolves are fat and happy and Lassr was innocent. I'm telling you that from where I sit as an innocent, I know I'm good. That means that Zurai and pr0ner are our other two (along with Lassr) werewolves.

And, if you believe that, you believe also that without any guidance from a priest, seer, or coroner, six villagers lit on Lassr and got it right on the first day. I don't buy it. Here's what I think is the more likely scenario:

1. One wolf got into a Lassr vote early on, just to test the waters. The other two stayed out, or had votes on other players just to see how things played.

2. Eventually, as Lassr attracted a few more votes, a second wolf jumped on-board.

3. Finally, a third wolf either committed to coming onto the Lassr vote...or pulled off altogether to "think about it."

I think this scenario is the correct one, based on simple probability. That gives us 2 and possibly 3 werewolves in the set of:

Austin
Remus
Bubbles
Unagi
Newcastle
Silky

I think there are a number of possible scenarios here involving various members of these six. Right now though, I think Unagi is an innocent dupe who saved Zurai from having to commit to being the third wolf in the vote of an innocent. Zurai, I think is a wolf.

I think either Mr. Bubbles or Newcastle is the second wolf.

I think Austin or Remus is the instigator wolf.

More in a while.

[Zurai]

3. Zurai pulled his Austin vote at the last minute and didn't register a vote before the lynch.

I only registered a single vote on day 1, and that was for Silky, not Austin. Just a nitpick (which may or may not hurt your perception of me as a wolf).

I'll sleep on the rest of your post and try and give a more thorough response in the morning.

[Newcastle]

/walks into the village center, inhales briskly, and gives a slight shudder

/sits down, and pulls out an ornately carved pipe, packs it full of tobacco and starts to smoke it.

/shakes his head

"so much to contemplate, so much to contemplate. I'll be honest with you. My heads is thrown for a loop right now. I feel as if I am fighting in a cloud of confusion. The one truth that i do know, is my own innocence, I wish i could share that to each of you, and hence we each unveil a bit of this cloud to help clear the confusion. However, i cant share it with each of you.

I looked back upon all of truicy's posts just now, and to be honest, i am left puzzled as to why he was targeted. The main people whom he targets is Austin, with Remus mentioned almost on a casual basis. He was open to other ideas, but never really expressed distrust in anyone else. No one made a case to move him. am wondering if his steadfastness did him in?"

I think unaqi said it best when he said he thought that there were 8 wolves polaying. My head is spinning trying to sort out the truth.

One thing I am hoping for is that Lassr was a wolf. I am hoping that. I really am. However, I am going to play as if he wasnt, as if it was a mistake. i would urge each of you to do the same. The only reason I am saying this is that we need to be careful here. Expect the worst, hope for the best. At least until the coroner comes out (knocks on wood).

I urge each of you to explain your votes as well, and share as much as you can. I know i havent been around much, however am tryin to make up for it when i can.We need to let others into our thinking.

back to truicy, i can come up with three scenarios. Ah, i will do that last, i want to still think that one through.

I think we also need to kind of talk about the specials. I think the rule should be dont come out unless you have game breaking info. However, gauge the time and place when you want to come out. If you feel threatened and if you have a wolf in your sights, let the village know...if you have 2...seriously think of coming out, you are playing with fire. That could seriously change the game and give us a huge lead. I am thinking seer here. The priest, definitely can use your thoughts. Again when appropriate, when you feel as if your info could be useful for us. and finally the coroner, you know how we have fared, and with that you also hold a special role. IF you think you can guide our actions, or if you know we have taken down a wolf or two, I think you should think abouut comign out. I hate this flying blind crap to be hoenst. I really do. I really want to know the results of the lynchings. of course this all could be moot, because we are down three people so far...2 known innocents, one unknown.

Am not advocating that any come out, just expressing my thoughts, since this discussion is bound to happen and more likely than not i wont be able to take part in it.

right know if all our specials are alive we know
1. 2 people's true nature (seer)
2. 2 people's profession (priest)
3. the nature of 1 dead person (either grund or lassr)

-in this case we know the identity of 4 people out of 9 (if they dont overlap). Which could have a very serious impact.

Thats the best case scenario we are looking at. If we have lost any of our specials well that changes things

Case 1 no seer or priest
1. we have the identify of 2 people
2. Know the nature of 1 dead body

case 2 no seer no priest (get on your knees and start praying time)
1. know nature of 1 dead body

no coroner
1. know the nature of 4 people
2. dont know lassrs/grunds identity

I just bring this out so that way we know where we potentially could be. And also, I want to do some work for the village since i havent been around during hte day. Feel its the least i could do. Perhaps give a bit of focus to folks.

Ok now for truicy -
1. He was stuck on austin pretty much and never switched his vote. Maybe the wolves didnt want someone so obstinant. His lack of truly identifying other suspects. This makes me think that maybe the other wolves dont feel threatened quite yet by others. Ledaing me to ask are we even on the right trail?
2. Confusion - maybe the whole point was to throw us for a loop.
3. maybe they didnt like something he said and/or did and zeroed in on him. I scanned through his posts, and nothing jumps out at me.
4. maybe the wolves thought since the vote on austin was so close to death yesterday, perhaps they could recreate a bandwagon.

Those were some thoughts that came to me as i thought about why truicy.

Remus - why did you make your comment not good? Seems like an interesting comment to make. Any villagers death is not good right now, but we know its going to happen at night.

Now for suspects -

Silky - still unsure of his first day accusation, his follow ups havent really sold me on his innocence

Bubbles - i try to give people a break on things, but i would like to hear more from you.

middle ground
austin - i honestly dont know where to put you. you dont strike me as a wolf, however, you never have even when guilty. Am wondering if truicy's death was a frame up job, counter frame up job...oh god my head hurts thinking of the variations here.

Unagi - i like his analysis he is trying however anyone find it odd of his vote switching when zurai stated he would come back later with a vote. Pre-emptive voting? You kind of made a show of it.

pr0ner - would like to hear more of what he has to say bout the village. i am not impressed with his lack of a rationale.

Zurai -not sure where his vote ended up. Mildly suspicious, cant back it up though.

Remus West - my faith is wavering a bit, i liked your day 1 actions, in terms of questioning things, i dont like how you started off day 2.

triggercut - not sure on him. Though, i do like his deadlock comment that he made. Make me believe more in his humanity.

newcastle - i have to throw myself in here to complete the list, and be honest with you guys. I know my innocence. you dont.

possible - innocents.

-no one here. I just dont have a strong bead on anyone. when i start to think i have a bead on someone, something happens to dissipate that. maybe we are just a village full of sinners, and hence innocence is dead. Maybe it's "the end of innocence"

anyway, am done for the night, i hope i have been able to shed some light on my thinking, to see where i am at. I am interested to hear what you guys have to say.

[Newcastle]

very interesting analysis there triggercut. nice little dissection.

couple of questions -
why is silky not part of the equation in terms of your guilty parties?

am curious to see more on your rationale also on zurai also? maybe i missed something here on him.

Very interesting perspective there. will definitely have to reread the thread now, and see if i can get more from it.