Austin wrote:Chaosraven wrote:Unagi wrote:I actually planted a
secret message to Chaos that I hoped someone would find and call 'us' on.
Very nice! Be careful of using that as a Good Guy, though, as some people don't use the Blue/White
Heh. I read that (I use black and gold) and didn't really make anything of it.
+1
Congrats to the Good Guys. Though I was one of 'em, I didn't really play this game. It was a lot of fun to watch, though. I avoided spoilers for most of the game in a deliberate attempt to "play along".
Some observations:
First, to the folks who feel you may have made some mistakes-- maybe even some blunders: don't take it too hard. Every one of us has stepped in it on occasion, and we always talk it through afterward so everyone can learn and improve. It's just part of the School of Hard Knocks in Werewolfville.
Second, kudos to stessier. I think you played very well indeed (though you dragged out the Helo shot a bit on account of pr0ner), and you are now officially on my People To Worry About list for these games.
Third, thanks for the creativity and humor you put into the game, Lassr. Nice work.
Fourth, a note on Baltar.
Under some rules, the Sorcerer's
life continues to count toward the Goodguy tally even though the Sorcerer's
fidelity and
victory conditions are with the Badguys. In games of that sort, the Good team has a strong incentive to keep the Sorcerer alive but ignore his ravings. A body is a body, after all, and the margin is often close.
Under these rules, though, the Sorcerer is Baltar and Baltar's
life as well as his allegiance goes with the Badguys if he manages to hook up.
This introduces a paradox: Since Baltar is a timebomb, the most rational thing for the Good team to do if it pegs Baltar would be to kill him whether he has converted or not. But if Unconverted Baltar is
sincerely playing for the Goodguys, it follows that the most rational thing Unconverted Baltar can do is
out himself immediately.
Since it would not be much fun to play Baltar that way, this proves that
under these rules it is
never the case that Baltar plays with undivided loyalty for the Goodguys. It's not possible to play Baltar the way Chaosraven prescribes without Doing The Right Thing and Kelricking.
Fifth, an observation on the Toaster forum: triggercut and Scoop are right that under these rules, it makes sense to
avoid finding #12, and for #12 to
avoid being found. Functionally, #12 is a mole.
Remaining a mole until it's time to explode is the best way to handle that power, since it leaves Six and Cavil free to kill people (and thereby gain an edge in the numbers game).
Sixth, an observation about being an outsider. It's
hard to evaluate one's intuitions when one has no influence over what happens in the thread. My initial intuitions were pretty good-- not amazing, but pretty good-- when I first sent them to Lassr. The inability to affect things, though, quickly led me to doubt myself and waver even on some of my correct guesses.
That's an interesting phenomenon. I'm pretty sure that if I had been in the game for a day, I would've pinned down, rather than doubted, some of those early glimmers of truth. I recommend that each first night kill
play along silently and test himself rather than receive spoilers. You'll learn a lot about your own gameplay that way.
Finally, here's my one amusing bullseye, from a note to Lassr on 06 Dec, before the death of Remus:
Grundbegriff to Lassr wrote:
Unless Newcastle was Baltar, I guess it was wrong to suspect him. Even so, I can't imagine what he was thinking/doing if he wasn't Baltar. So much peacock struttin'.
Still no spoilers wanted. But I predict that if triggercut isn't Cavil|Six, then they'll attack triggercut. And if triggercut is Cavil|Six, they'll kill Remus.
Better watch your tells, triggercut
I picked up a Baltar vibe from Kraegor but didn't really realize it was intentional. Nice work Kraegor.
I am so kicking your ass in Magic next time we play. That will teach you to allow triggercut to besmerch(sp?) my good role. 
. I was actually going to out myself day 1 but you all lynched Newcastle so quickly that it was night by the time I logged on that day and I figured it was to late. 
When triggercut almost pulled off the "I am Apollo" thing I wanted to scream. Then folks managed to mention "Hey, what was Remus?" but you never went and looked or even discussed it. First time I drop hints and everyone ignores them. 
