Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Wed Jan 16, 2008 5:48 pm

Doubled my BA last week (bought right at $80), but it's still not what I consider to be a "full" position.

My cost avg is now $86, and if it goes much below $75 I will be forced to buy more. It is looking ridiculously undervalued even here.

Watching the following closely as they are approaching ranges I would consider buying (have been watching some of these for a year or more looking for a good entry):

AAPL (Apple)
NVDA (Nvidia)
STP (Suntech Power)
NOK (Nokia)

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jan 16, 2008 6:02 pm

I can't touch NOK. I had it $16-$18 I think and sold in the $20s after I got tired of waiting. That one taught me patience. But I can't bring myself to buy more.

All solar plays scare me.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Wed Jan 16, 2008 11:41 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:All solar plays scare me.

Why? Too many alt energy possibilities on the horizon?

And to add to the scariness, that particular one is Chinese to boot!

(but extremely well run)

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 10:50 am

Just watching the runs in FSLR and SPWR. If I owned any of them, I'd be happy. They're just reaching bubble territory. Like ag (MOS, POT, MON...). It's just instinctive, no real number crunching to back it up.

cheeba · Post by **cheeba** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:09 am

SpaceLord wrote:I've stopped watching my portfolio, I don't want to panic like everyone else and pull out of the market.

I just looked into this thread for the first time, and looked at the OP, and... well... damn: (Red = Current Value)

SpaceLord wrote: My current portfolio:
ASPV $20.10 - 26.01
OPMR $7.56 - 4.45
PNCL $17.68 - 13.48
SHOO $31.69 - 16.28
AVCI $8.29 - 6.58
PWEI $32.22 - (not finding it)

...eouch!

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 1:18 pm

I think PWEI last traded around $33.90 when it merged (or was bought?) with J-M Manufacturing. It's private.

EDIT: Buyout was $33.50/share in June.

POT fell off a cliff today down 14% along with the rest of the sector.

Expirations on Friday, Bernanke testifying, it's crazy. Fast Money also hammered the sector last night. I imagine there's a lot of profit taking from the big winners going on too.

It'll come back, the chart is a day trader's dream.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 5:43 pm

I was watching the X files the other day. Someone was sleeping with the TV on and the news was saying, "...and another rough day on Wall Street as the DOW falls 14 points to 3650..." Probably from '93 or '94. Heh.

If you listen to the pundits, we're far from the bottom and absolutely need a 75 point cut from the fed and big fat economic stimulous package from the ole government.

I'm moving into savings mode from accumulation mode and waiting for the bargains.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 5:56 pm

NYSE just bought the AMEX.

manhack · Post by **manhack** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 8:14 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:
It'll come back, the chart is a day trader's dream.

I've just been farting around with swing stocks and have made around $500 this week doing trades in the AM, lunch and before going home. Good times.

pengo · Post by **pengo** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 8:19 pm

Guys,

Where can I borrow Yen @ 0% and convert it to AUD to do this carry trade I keep hearing about.

I'd like to borrow at 0.0-1% for Yen, convert it to AUD and throw it into a term deposit and earn the interest. Its highly unlikely interest rates in Australia will drop so I'm speculating I will be ok. Or can you only do this if you work for a broker? Do I need a Forex account?

I just know if I try and borrow Yen from a local bank they will charge me some stupid interest rate so it wouldn't be profitable for me. Do I have to go straight to the bank of japan? They will deal with a foreigner not residing in Japan?

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 8:22 pm

pengo wrote:Guys,

Where can I borrow Yen @ 0% and convert it to AUD to do this carry trade I keep hearing about.

I'd like to borrow at 0.0-1% for Yen, convert it to AUD and throw it into a term deposit and earn the interest. Its highly unlikely interest rates in Australia will drop so I'm speculating I will be ok. Or can you only do this if you work for a broker? Do I need a Forex account?

It's usually a highly leveraged trade and mostly done by institutions. I have no idea how to go about it here, let alone in Australia.

tswright · Post by **tswright** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 9:05 pm

A couple of indicators that I follow:

The percentage of stocks on the NYSE that are above their 200 day moving average dropped to about 23% today (yesterday it was at 36%... that's a huge drop and almost feels like a washout to me) . Values under or around 20 have traditionally signalled a bottom in past bear markets (the large caps are already below 20).

The VIX (Volatility Index) finally popped up today after being fairly flat during the recent decline. Spikes in the VIX frequently presage at least short-term bottoms.

Tough one to call tomorrow especially with the uncertainty of a possible pre-open rate cut.

pengo · Post by **pengo** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 9:24 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:
pengo wrote:Guys,

Where can I borrow Yen @ 0% and convert it to AUD to do this carry trade I keep hearing about.

I'd like to borrow at 0.0-1% for Yen, convert it to AUD and throw it into a term deposit and earn the interest. Its highly unlikely interest rates in Australia will drop so I'm speculating I will be ok. Or can you only do this if you work for a broker? Do I need a Forex account?
It's usually a highly leveraged trade and mostly done by institutions. I have no idea how to go about it here, let alone in Australia.

Yeah thats what I was thinking. Currently the rate in Japan is 0.75% and I can get 8% interest on a cash account her in Australia. So thats a profit of 7.25%, tho for it to be anything worthwhile I'd have to borrow close to 250k+.. So you'd have to take a massive amount of leverage. Even still, the Aussie rate is only going to climb so any increases in the BOJ rate would be negated.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 9:37 pm

I don't have enough self control to hold onto cash here...buying like crazy today and yesterday. I love shopping on Wall St when the sales are on!

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Tue Jan 22, 2008 10:51 am

D'oh! Bought too early!

Well, you can't always catch the bottom. Looks like there will be plenty o time to buy companies on sale.

Oddly enough, one of my few green holdings today is BAC! Go figure...guess I need to read the earnings report more closely. From the headlines this a.m. I was expecting it to bomb. Wow...up 2.1%...WTH? Interest rate cut had that much of an offset to their depressing conference call/earnings release?

And btw, Lawbeef, I saw Y in your Caps holdings, looked into it a little more, and bought a little just so I can watch it. Looks good for the long term hold to me.

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:05 am

Annnnd, here's my update from the initial posting.

May 17th:

ASPV $20.10
OPMR $7.56
PNCL $17.68
SHOO $31.69
AVCI $8.29
PWEI $32.22

January 22

ASPV -company was sold
OPMR $3.74
PNCL $12.75
SHOO $16.05
AVCI $6.26
PWEI $0.00 - company was sold

Sooo, my portfolio has lost 60% of its value for now, 8 months in. I don't plan to do anything with the existing stocks for a while, so it's no big deal.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:05 am

Going to be a long day.

BAC is "strong" on the rate cut, not really their earnings.

I'm still holding off anything new. Might add a bit to UTX or Procter.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:08 am

MELLLLTINGGGG! MELLLLLTTTTINGGGG!

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:12 am

I have about 25% of my total investment ability in cash, so it's not all bad. I'm still not buying yet though. I think it might get messy for a while. Isn't WB (Wachovia) releasing earnings today? Maybe BAC too... wait and see.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:53 am

The financials are leading on the rate cut. Retail too.

BAC did release earnings. They weren't great, but the lack of any big surprises probably helped.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:59 am

LawBeefaroni wrote:The financials are leading on the rate cut. Retail too.

BAC did release earnings. They weren't great, but the lack of any big surprises probably helped.

Yeah Wachovia pretty much mirrored BoA's 97-98% drop in profits.

pengo · Post by **pengo** » Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:32 pm

no comments on the MASSIVE cut by the fed?!

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:59 pm

Fed Thread.

Moggy123 · Post by **Moggy123** » Tue Jan 22, 2008 3:12 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:The financials are leading on the rate cut. Retail too.

With 40% of my investments in quality bonds, I'm happy!

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jan 23, 2008 11:44 am

UTX with a great report. Their guidance is a highlight.

United Technologies Corp.'s (UTX) end markets remain strong, despite widespread fears of a broad economic slowdown, a top company executive said Wednesday.

"We have not seen it," said Greg Hayes, United Tech's vice president of accounting and finance. "I think that's the best news that we could convey to everyone."

Hayes, speaking on a post-earnings conference call with analysts, said he expects the broad trends that have been driving growth for the Hartford, Conn., diversified manufacturer to continue this year.

That's some good news. I haven't heard a single peep on CNBC. UTX must not be sexy enough. I think it's as big as IBM's report and outlook.

I'll listen to the conference call tonight.

Apple disappointed on their outlook, it's down 12%. I think MSFT reports after the bell. EDIT: It's actually after the bell tomorrow.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Wed Jan 23, 2008 12:08 pm

I have been waiting and watching Apple a while to get in at a low level. If it gets down to around $120 or so, I will be picking some up.

How many more ipods, or iphones do they have up their sleeves I wonder?

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jan 23, 2008 2:41 pm

Ouch. This guyjust got margined out. 2440 shares of AAPL at $171.80.

If anything, it shows why you should never go long/short on margin unless you are a professional.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Wed Jan 23, 2008 3:47 pm

Good lord.

I tried margin once. Never again.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jan 23, 2008 3:55 pm

Looking at it more, he actually took out a loan for part of it and margined on the loan. Like $72K wasn't enough to gamble with. Geez.

Well, at least they'll say about him, "he had balls."

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jan 23, 2008 4:40 pm

Rumor of bond insurer bail-out?

Dow now up 220. Some of the intraday moves have been insane.

ABK has had a crazy 5 days.

raydude · Post by **raydude** » Wed Jan 23, 2008 8:58 pm

Whew, been busy the past week supporting the MESSENGER Mercury flyby. But I did get one trade in:

ACAS (American Capital Strategies, Inc) 1/18/2008 @ 28.285. I am pleasantly surprised that its already up 8%. The current 12.95% dividend yield is nice too.

I also clicked on the + symbol to expand some of my stock listings on Etrade. Lo and Behold, I have some dividend reinvestments! I completely forgot that I enrolled in DRIPs for Exxon (XOM) and the Dow Diamonds Exchange Traded fund (DIA) last year.

So, I now have .163 more DIA shares and .237 more XOM shares! Go go auto-DRIP!

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:41 pm

MSFT results look good. Top end of estimates and BTE Xbox and Windows sales.

Their outlook will be the only important thing though.

Shares are +4% AH, +8% on the day.

pengo · Post by **pengo** » Fri Jan 25, 2008 4:20 am

How do you have a fraction of a share? lol

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Jan 25, 2008 10:44 am

pengo wrote:How do you have a fraction of a share? lol

DRIPs allow you to buy fractional shares. If your dividend is $0.20/share and you have 200 shares, you get $40. If it's an $80 stock (or the DRIP price is $80 anyway) you get .5 share.

raydude · Post by **raydude** » Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:50 am

LawBeefaroni wrote:
pengo wrote:How do you have a fraction of a share? lol
DRIPs allow you to buy fractional shares. If your dividend is $0.20/share and you have 200 shares, you get $40. If it's an $80 stock (or the DRIP price is $80 anyway) you get .5 share.

Its like compound interest but with shares instead of money, which is why I like it. I only recently realized that Etrade allows me to enroll in DRIPS for companies which offer them. I thought I had to enroll in DRIPs personally, i.e. hold the shares in my own name, not through the broker.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 4:56 pm

So I guess on Friday, Jim Cramer pimped SIRI at the end of his show. He said the merger was probably going to go through, but even if it didn't, SIRI was the better company, etc. etc. and he probably pressed a lot of dumb sound effect buttons.

Sure enough, SIRI gapped a bit and is up 6% with about 15 minutes left in trading. XMSR, however, has barely moved. Up about 1.4% right now.

SIRI is at $3.07 (gapped to a $3.10 open) and XMSR is at $11.14 ($11.36 open). Calculating the premium based on DJ's 4.6 shares of SIRI for XMSR, I get $2.92 or 26.7%. Which tells me either:

Jim is helping his boys out, pumping up SIRI so they can play arb and probably short SIRI and buy XMSR.

or

The street doesn't share his optimism about the merger and it's only his sheep and momo players buying SIRI. The steet isn't touching the XMSR arb.

I've been watching these two for a while and they tend to trade in tandem, obviously. Today is weird (which is why I went looking for news and found the Cramer recap). The only other news was programming information, about SIRI having a Gay POTUS Caucus channel and other non-noteworthy PR pieces.

Anyway, I know these are popular stocks, wondering if anyone here is holding and has any ideas.

I'm tempted to get some XMSR on SIRI strength. Unlike Cramer, I think it's a merger play only. If you don't think the merger is going through, neither is worth owning at these prices.

EDIT: While I was typing, my "toe in the water" limit order hit. 60 shares of XMSR at $11.08. This would really be better as an options play but I'm staying out of that game.

Crux · Post by **Crux** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 3:39 pm

What are people's thoughts on BAC? IS this rally going to hold or are we going to see another drop into the 30's? I'm trying to decide whether or not to dump what I have for now and come back to it later when the industry has settled down a bit.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 4:21 pm

BAC? Volatility is extremely high. It's hard to say what to do from day to day in that stock, that sector, or even the market in general. It really depends what your time horizon is and whether you're up or down in your position. And what the rest of your portfolio looks like.

It's party time for day traders.

I put MAS in my CAPS last week. I've been watching it for about a year and when it broke below $20 it was tempting. Of course I didn't buy.

Oh well. $23.40 today. I think Soros paid over $30 for 5M shares so at least I don't have that to worry about.

Crux · Post by **Crux** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 4:25 pm

Well, I took up a position in BAC right before all of the bank crap hit. Right now I'm down on it just under 9%, which given the overall market state I can't complain. But, I'm thinking if it looks to be dropping down again in the next little while I might jump out now and buy back in later.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 9:51 pm

I tried to buy more BAC the other day when it dropped down so low (it was a brief morning drop), but %^$#@%$^ Ameritrade website was down all morning, so I missed my shot. By the time the site was working, it was back up again.

I think short term, it's a crap shoot, but long long term, it looks BEAUTIFUL to me. Look at that nice dividend!

Any more dips like the other day, Internet Gods permitting, I will be buying more.