Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Crux · Post by **Crux** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 10:04 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote:I tried to buy more BAC the other day when it dropped down so low (it was a brief morning drop), but %^$#@%$^ Ameritrade website was down all morning, so I missed my shot. By the time the site was working, it was back up again.

I think short term, it's a crap shoot, but long long term, it looks BEAUTIFUL to me. Look at that nice dividend!

Any more dips like the other day, Internet Gods permitting, I will be buying more.

Me also. My big question is whether it will get back down again. If it looks likely, I'd feel comfortable dropping my position in it and buying back around $40.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 11:09 pm

Everyone is different when it comes to investing, but my personal motto for situations like this is if the company is something I think I would want to own in 5 years, the difference between $30 vs $40 shouldn't matter that much. I.e. buy now - you likely will not be able to time the bottom.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 11:53 pm

WCC went up about 15% for me today. I'm still recovering from my entry point in August though.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 12:22 am

Carpet_pissr wrote:I tried to buy more BAC the other day when it dropped down so low (it was a brief morning drop), but %^$#@%$^ Ameritrade website was down all morning, so I missed my shot. By the time the site was working, it was back up again.

Call or email customer service. They will probably give you free trades. I get 20 or so whenever it's down. I'd rather it be up, but I'll take what they give me.

I'm putting my new funds into my Zecco account and I'm thinking about getting an IB one too.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 10:59 am

LB: Ever had a problem with Zecco.com being down?

I have been quite happy with Ameritrade up until it was down at a time when I really wanted to make a trade. I had been waiting for BAC to take a hit just like it did recently...I was ready, cash in hand. Totally inexcusable for a company as large as that to go down, considering that is their core business. I guess it's like a delayed or cancelled flight with an airline though...so maybe I don't have much of a case.

I looked at Zecco briefly - free trades sounds like something I could go for, though at $5 a trade for Izone (Ameritrade), not sure it's worth it to switch. I don't buy/sell THAT much (though I am sure I would be surprised if I added up all my commission costs for the year - funny they don't do that for you on your year end summary!

)

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 11:09 am

Carpet_pissr wrote:Everyone is different when it comes to investing, but my personal motto for situations like this is if the company is something I think I would want to own in 5 years, the difference between $30 vs $40 shouldn't matter that much. I.e. buy now - you likely will not be able to time the bottom.

A 33% change in price doesn't make a difference to you? Crazy talk.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 11:15 am

If you have over $2500 with Zecco you get 10 free trades/mo. Fine if you're not really active. Additional trades are $4.50 so not much better tha Izone.

I've never had a problem with it down. Granted they don't have all the fancy streamers and the like but order execution has been fine.

I keep my Ameritrade account for the Apex stuff but I'm putting most new funds into Zecco.

I have a friend with Schwab and he likes that too. Me, never even considered it. Have heard good things about Scottrade too, but I've also heard it has downtime problems like Ameritrade.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 1:45 pm

noxiousdog wrote:
Carpet_pissr wrote:Everyone is different when it comes to investing, but my personal motto for situations like this is if the company is something I think I would want to own in 5 years, the difference between $30 vs $40 shouldn't matter that much. I.e. buy now - you likely will not be able to time the bottom.
A 33% change in price doesn't make a difference to you? Crazy talk.

Granted, it does make a bit more difference with a slow grower like BAC, but the point was that you won't be able to time or know the bottom, so if you believe in the company's prospects x number of years down the road, buy in now and if it goes even lower, buy more (if your investment thesis is still in tact of course).

Just a different way to look at it I guess.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 2:00 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: Granted, it does make a bit more difference with a slow grower like BAC, but the point was that you won't be able to time or know the bottom, so if you believe in the company's prospects x number of years down the road, buy in now and if it goes even lower, buy more (if your investment thesis is still in tact of course).

Just a different way to look at it I guess.

That assumes that your choice is to buy BAC or not buy anything.

raydude · Post by **raydude** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 2:08 pm

I sold SBUX for a loss yesterday. Bleh. I guess the good thing is that I can claim that loss on my tax return. Turned around and bought ACAS for $34.88

If you think the dividend yield on Bank of America is nice, check out ACAS at 11.42%. Plus their fundamentals look sound, so I'll be hanging on to this for a while.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 2:26 pm

There's no magic bullet. If there were, there would be no market.

I have some stocks that I want to own in 5 years and I will pay whatever their price is now. But I don't max out. I either DCA or buy when there's blood.

For high yields, I look at CEFs. Still have a few Canadian Oil Trusts for their yield, but Ottawa might be taking those away.

raydude · Post by **raydude** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 4:26 pm

CEF = Central Fund of Canada, Limited?

DCA = ???

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 4:58 pm

raydude wrote:CEF = Central Fund of Canada, Limited?

DCA = ???

CEF=Closed-end-fund. Like an exchange traded mutual fund, but not an ETF. They're actively managed. CEFA. The Oil Trusts aren't CEFs. Just another high yield option.

DCA=Dollar cost averaging.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:38 am

Well, BAC was added to the DJIA, effective Feb 19. Chevron was also added, Honeywell and Altria were removed.

Altria I can see, because of the Phillip Morris spin off, but Honeywell? And why add another financial?

Anyway, should be a nice short term bump for BAC as index funds add it.

Moggy123 · Post by **Moggy123** » Mon Feb 11, 2008 2:02 pm

Just worked out my returns for the last year.

9%

All hail the efficient frontier!

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Feb 26, 2008 1:03 pm

Stuck flipping in the bear market. Almost jumped on Genentech on Friday.

02/20/2008 Bought PTSC@$0.36

02/20/2008Sold CVLT@$15.36

02/06/2008 Bought CVLT@$14.20

02/06/2008 Sold XMSR@$12.46

01/28/2008 Bought XMSR@$11.08

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Tue Feb 26, 2008 2:31 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:
pengo wrote:How do you have a fraction of a share? lol
DRIPs allow you to buy fractional shares. If your dividend is $0.20/share and you have 200 shares, you get $40. If it's an $80 stock (or the DRIP price is $80 anyway) you get .5 share.

Yeah, a large part of my strategy over the past year or two to ride out the market has been based around DRIPs. Specifically, buy and hold and reinvest with DRIP, figuring that the possibility/probability of a drop only enhances the purchasing value of the DRIP.

I'm not necessarily looking for the largest Dividends, but rather solid companies with dividends, preferably strong.

BAC has been a large part of this, as is PCU.

DIS, PFE, COST, AET are as well, to a lesser degree (though DIS was viewed more as a safe, dividend-paying place to keep my gains from Pixar after the purchase).

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Tue Feb 26, 2008 2:42 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:Stuck flipping in the bear market. Almost jumped on Genentech on Friday.

I originally bought DNA at $75, and pressed the bet at $85. Was happy when it was at $95. Not so happy now at $78.

It's a long term play though. I've been toying with the idea of moving to Amgen, or maybe just covering my bet (er, investment) with them. I saw an interesting article on Alzheimer's therapy with one of Amgen's products that looked extremely promising, particularly in light of my anticipated Boomer Boom in Alzheimer's.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Feb 26, 2008 2:49 pm

Pyperkub wrote:
LawBeefaroni wrote:Stuck flipping in the bear market. Almost jumped on Genentech on Friday.
I originally bought DNA at $75, and pressed the bet at $85. Was happy when it was at $95. Not so happy now at $78.

It's a long term play though. I've been toying with the idea of moving to Amgen, or maybe just covering my bet (er, investment) with them. I saw an interesting article on Alzheimer's therapy with one of Amgen's products that looked extremely promising, particularly in light of my anticipated Boomer Boom in Alzheimer's.

Heh, cut loose AMGN in the $60s this year. I'm staying the heck out of biotech, at least the gene and drug makers, for a while. Unless it's for a quick move. Maybe SYK, that's about as close as I'll get.

I'm thinking silver these days. SLV maybe.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Mar 11, 2008 3:07 pm

54 minutes to close. No sell off, no sell off...

Crux · Post by **Crux** » Tue Mar 11, 2008 7:51 pm

Woo. Today was the first good stock day I've had in a while. After losing some money playing hot potato with BAC over the past few months I've been sitting out lately without any positions, waiting for a good buy to turn things around.

Enter CVH. For no discernible reason, CHV stockholders panicked this morning and by 10am or so it was down 20%. I had been keeping an eye on it on and off, and its financials are sound. So I jumped in. I took up a position at 42.07, and then added to it at 41.69. For the sake of my nerves, I then avoided looking for the rest of the day, and am happy to report it closed at 43.00.

Hopefully I'll catch a couple more bargains tomorrow.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:31 am

Crux wrote:Woo. Today was the first good stock day I've had in a while. After losing some money playing hot potato with BAC over the past few months I've been sitting out lately without any positions, waiting for a good buy to turn things around.

Enter CVH. For no discernible reason, CHV stockholders panicked this morning and by 10am or so it was down 20%. I had been keeping an eye on it on and off, and its financials are sound. So I jumped in. I took up a position at 42.07, and then added to it at 41.69. For the sake of my nerves, I then avoided looking for the rest of the day, and am happy to report it closed at 43.00.

Hopefully I'll catch a couple more bargains tomorrow.

It was down on the WellPoint forecast. Not exactly no good reason. Check WLP, CI, AET, UNH, HUM...

It was down way too much and can probably be flipped off today's bottom. But if WellPoint is right, the sector is looking ugly. I guess it depends on who guides next.

Crux · Post by **Crux** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 9:22 am

LawBeefaroni wrote:It was down on the WellPoint forecast. Not exactly no good reason. Check WLP, CI, AET, UNH, HUM...

It was down way too much and can probably be flipped off today's bottom. But if WellPoint is right, the sector is looking ugly. I guess it depends on who guides next.

I guess 'no discernible reason' isn't a true statement

But, really it was a reaction to Wellpoint more than anything 'real'. Typical investor over-reaction, which you have to love because it creates opportunities. I'm not sure if I consider CVH to be a long-term hold right now... I figure I'll have a few days to make up my mind on that. If you have any thoughts to share I'd love to hear them, Lawbeef.

I just saw this as a good short-term play, since I figured CVH and the others in the industry to bounce back given their earnings forecasts are still solid.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 9:49 am

Crux wrote:
LawBeefaroni wrote:It was down on the WellPoint forecast. Not exactly no good reason. Check WLP, CI, AET, UNH, HUM...

It was down way too much and can probably be flipped off today's bottom. But if WellPoint is right, the sector is looking ugly. I guess it depends on who guides next.
I guess 'no discernible reason' isn't a true statement But, really it was a reaction to Wellpoint more than anything 'real'. Typical investor over-reaction, which you have to love because it creates opportunities. I'm not sure if I consider CVH to be a long-term hold right now... I figure I'll have a few days to make up my mind on that. If you have any thoughts to share I'd love to hear them, Lawbeef.

I just saw this as a good short-term play, since I figured CVH and the others in the industry to bounce back given their earnings forecasts are still solid.

The reasons given by WellPoint for their lowered guidance are sector-wide factors. If WLP is right, then everyone is going to see similar pressures. Humana just did a similar revision today. Check the news for HUM. Not pretty.

CIGNA and Aetna have bounced. Everyone else is getting sold.

Crux · Post by **Crux** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 10:16 am

Looks like I might have been a day or two too early. Obviously could have gotten a much better deal today than yesterday. I wonder what else is going to shake out of the trees in the next 24-48 hours.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:19 pm

Crux wrote:Looks like I might have been a day or two too early. Obviously could have gotten a much better deal today than yesterday. I wonder what else is going to shake out of the trees in the next 24-48 hours.

On the CCall, Humana said their revision was the result of an error in predicting/pricing certain reimbursement and premiums. I think the CFO called it "a professional embarrassment" and so it might be limited to Humana. Should ease some pressure on CVH and the others.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:21 pm

Crux wrote:Looks like I might have been a day or two too early. Obviously could have gotten a much better deal today than yesterday. I wonder what else is going to shake out of the trees in the next 24-48 hours.

On the CCall, Humana said their revision was the result of an error in predicting/pricing certain reimbursement and premiums. I think the CFO called it "a professional embarrassment" and so it might be limited to Humana. Should ease some pressure on CVH and the others.

Crux · Post by **Crux** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:31 pm

Well, despite the horrid opening, I added some more at 39.50. I've been riding the ups and downs all day, but now we're back above 42 again. So if I did decide to get out now I've turned a small profit for a 48 hour investment.

I'm tempted to hold onto this one though.

USB is another one I am looking at. Less than 5% of their mortgage business is sub-prime, and Buffet has been adding this to his portfolio of late. This is honestly a little surprising to me given it doesn't have the consistent EPS growth he normally looks for... but I suppose with prices driven down it might be a good buy.

Crux · Post by **Crux** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:37 pm

BTW Law, what's your take on the whole Countrywide mess with BAC? I was very big on BAC before that particular crap hit the fan. BAC had so little exposure to the mortgage mess...

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:56 pm

Crux wrote:BTW Law, what's your take on the whole Countrywide mess with BAC? I was very big on BAC before that particular crap hit the fan. BAC had so little exposure to the mortgage mess...

I'm staying out of financials. There's probably a good bottom out there but I'm not dodging falling knives to find it. CFC is toxic. I don't know what BAC is doing, admittedly because I don't understand probably. Perhaps the are more in the mortgage business than we know.

C has been tempting too, but screw it, I'll catch them on the way up if at all.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 5:18 pm

As someone much wiser and far richer than me said, the only business harder to understand than insurance companies, in terms of investing, is/are banks.

Having said that, I started a position in BAC not too long ago and plan to add a little more at these levels. I think very long term, this is a great place to get in on a great dividend paying company.

tswright · Post by **tswright** » Sun Mar 16, 2008 7:41 pm

JPMorgan to Buy Bear for $2 a Share:

The deal represented a 93.3 percent discount to Bear Stearns' market capitalization as of Friday, and roughly a 98.8 percent discount to its book value as of Feb. 29.

Ouch.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 10:12 am

tswright wrote:JPMorgan to Buy Bear for $2 a Share:

The deal represented a 93.3 percent discount to Bear Stearns' market capitalization as of Friday, and roughly a 98.8 percent discount to its book value as of Feb. 29.
Ouch.

I remember thinking about it when it was above $130.

Crux · Post by **Crux** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 10:24 am

Well CVH did lower their estimated earnings, but only by a small amount. They've opened a little lower this morning, but I think they'll be in a happy place in another month or two.

JPM came out of the gates strong on the bargain-basement purchase of Bear. Wish I'd made a small buy in them on Friday

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 10:50 am

What a freaking dip and rebound today... so far... Let's see if we can gain 350 and drop to 125 lower today.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 12:58 pm

Crux wrote: Wish I'd made a small buy in them on Friday

Hindsight is a terrible thing with this kind of volatility in the financials. I know a few people who felt the same when CFC did one of its jumps. I feel that way about Citi right now but screw financials.

Got a little POT around $153. Dance with who you know and who brung ya.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 3:31 pm

Street seems to think JPM got a good deal. It's 10% gain is anchoring the DOW.

KingB · Post by **KingB** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 7:03 pm

What are people thoughts on Circuit City? There stock is sitting at $3.73 right now. They have huge cash reserves and little debt. Does anyone think they can make a come back and compete with Best Buy? I have bought quite a few things from CC and was extremely pleased every time.

Crux · Post by **Crux** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 7:10 pm

KingB wrote:What are people thoughts on Circuit City? There stock is sitting at $3.73 right now. They have huge cash reserves and little debt. Does anyone think they can make a come back and compete with Best Buy? I have bought quite a few things from CC and was extremely pleased every time.

One of the problems I have with CC is that they are in a price competitive industry. There is *no* reason to buy from them instead of from Best Buy or another electronics retailer. Best Buy has better name recognition, so they seem to be the slower horse in that particular race.

pengo · Post by **pengo** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 11:28 pm

fucking stoked, put it all on the line and went short on CBA before market open on Monday and made 50k ! lol a years salary.. Was using CFDs fyi so margin effectively. Made sure I put in-place a guarenteed stop loss, it reduced my profit in doing so but ensured I wouldn't lose my shirt taking so much risk

I think I might take a month off from CFD trading now, might be tempting fate if I continue haha!