Scooby's Werewolf Village - Game Over

[Kraegor]

I'm not the were dog. Big shock there, right? Just a villager. A were dog, if other preparations were used up, will take a wolf with him if attacked at night - with 2 wolves unknown, attacking me at night would be foolhardy. Yet Kraegor never seemed to take that possibility into account when talking about the endgame. It seemed to me that he assumed I was lying about being a were dog. It's something that's been eating at me the last couple of days.

very good. now you are still only 2 steps behind analysis I figured out friday when I said outting wolfdog was fuckin stupid. think it over who knows ya might get there before christmas.

[Kraegor]

Why come out now? It's time we find out what we're dealing with. It's crunch time. I think we need any hidden specials to stand and be counted. With me in the mix, that throws the numbers off. I'm hoping that we have a couple of specials in the group of unknowns whose information when pooled with what we already know can help find us a wolf.

We need to have a really good guess about who to lynch today. If we can't come up with a really good suspect, we need to go ahead and off Bubbles.

Again, If Kraegor talks to ANYONE besides you and Bubbles, then it proves him. If he's a wolf, then you MUST be a wolf since there's been no conversion and he has spent the night with you. It doesn't matter who. It doesn't matter the reliability of this person. It just has to be someone besides you or Bubbles.

This would be the perfect game for the wolves to work in the "open" like you and Kraegor have. With the possibility of multiple roles, a wolf can fake a role and not be contradicted by a good guy unless he's scanned by the seer. The kill of a special on the first night would have given wolf CR the perfect opportunity to fake special.

That's why I think we need to out all of our specials. If the numbers don't add up, we need to know why.

wow anyone huh? and how does it prove me? Bubbles has confirmed I did not contact him at any point in this game. Obviously you believe him cuz apparently a cross-section of wolf and wolfbane communication is not evidence enough.

wtf do you need 3 people for? triangulation?

[Unagi]

I think we do need to hear from all specials today.

I really don't know about this move on Mr.Bubbles right now - I think it's a mistake. (I will not be joining it today)

Personally, here is what I can't believe regarding a "Kraegor" / "Chaos" evil move. (and I do believe they are either both good or both evil)

The premise would be that, as they (the wolves) killed off our specials (Lassr/Grund) - they then felt the need to hide behind this Whore/Wolfbane move that they had set up from the very beginning.

It just seems like a strange move to make if you are holding all the cards, and killed off a number of specials with your kills.

We've had 1 special that we all know of (99.99%) - stessier.
Mipe is likely a second.
Lassr, Scoop, Grund these could be 3 more. but much more likely just 1 or 2 more.

I put that at the high water mark of 4 Blue Specials accounted for. (mipe/stessier + 2 from "Lassr/Grund/Scoop")

The other 2? - well, why the hell would the instinct be anything other than the thought that it's Chaos and Kraegor.

Now, that's not to say that I haven't been running that over and over again in my head - and it could be that they are indeed lying - but then I think we would see quiet a few Specials come out today... and they would have - I think, already really - in an effort to point out that we may have 'too many specials' here.


I am not sure who I would put my vote on, and I am a little gun-shy after the Purge thing (although I do feel there is a good chance he was Sorcerer, as his position on things was always giving the wolves a break). I suppose we could be up against 3 unpowered wolves and 3 sorcerers - but I doubt that.


Again, this is a puzzle with no picture. No corner pieces - it's all just 'Behavior' - and well - for that I would say that I trust Chaos' move to come out as the Wolfbane on day 1. I had given that some thought a few days ago - and it seemed to me that if I got Wolfbane - I would likely feel compelled to tell everyone - just so they didn't start going all crazy on me if I never died at night, and then 'later' claimed Wolfbane. So, while I thought for a good while it was counter intuitive - I managed to convince myself it was how I may have handled it.


I am still trying to figure out Bakhtosh's move on calling himself weredog - and then removing that claim today.

[Unagi]

I don't trust Unagi. I rather kill a known versus and unknown so I"ll accuse  Mr. Bubbles 
 

 Mr. bubbles 
 
go with the known

Hey tru1cy. Yesterday you said you didn't trust Unagi - and hence you voted for Mr.Bubbles yesterday.

What exactly did that have to do with trusting me?

[Unagi]

Why come out now? It's time we find out what we're dealing with. It's crunch time. I think we need any hidden specials to stand and be counted. With me in the mix, that throws the numbers off. I'm hoping that we have a couple of specials in the group of unknowns whose information when pooled with what we already know can help find us a wolf.

We need to have a really good guess about who to lynch today. If we can't come up with a really good suspect, we need to go ahead and off Bubbles.

Again, If Kraegor talks to ANYONE besides you and Bubbles, then it proves him. If he's a wolf, then you MUST be a wolf since there's been no conversion and he has spent the night with you. It doesn't matter who. It doesn't matter the reliability of this person. It just has to be someone besides you or Bubbles.

This would be the perfect game for the wolves to work in the "open" like you and Kraegor have. With the possibility of multiple roles, a wolf can fake a role and not be contradicted by a good guy unless he's scanned by the seer. The kill of a special on the first night would have given wolf CR the perfect opportunity to fake special.

That's why I think we need to out all of our specials. If the numbers don't add up, we need to know why.

wow anyone huh? and how does it prove me? Bubbles has confirmed I did not contact him at any point in this game. Obviously you believe him cuz apparently a cross-section of wolf and wolfbane communication is not evidence enough.

wtf do you need 3 people for? triangulation?

The point being that you are only proven a whore to the other guy that has positioned himself as 'trusted'. And the village is concerned about that - it's a legit concern (frankly, if you weren't wearing the short-shorts right now, you'd be having a wet dream over all of the possibly trickery being played against you.)

However - if Mr.Bubbles is killed and you visit a human tonight... you would likely die, and we have then proven nothing useful at all. Hell, I'd rather we LYNCH you then LYNCH Mr.Bubbles. At least you being lynched a wolf would have the nice effect of sinking Chaos too.


If you are a wolf, of course you wouldn't die at night - and no one could claim you had visited them - aside from your gang. The failure of Bakhtosh's idea is that he mistakenly assumes that if you are a wolf, your gang is just You and Chaos - when Chaos or You could easily be a Sorcerer/Witch (or have one online at the ready). So the remaining wolves may not have trouble coming up with a non-Chaos player to 'attest' to your whorish visit.

If you are the Whore, and we kill Mr.Bubbles - and you just simply die... again - I'll say it, what do we learn.

I'm still thinking that we test one of these guys pushing Mr.Bubbles right now. I am totally torn between the three for completely different reasons.

[Mr Bubbles]

wtf do you need 3 people for? triangulation?

I believe in your line of work they call it a threesome.

[tru1cy]

Unagi most likely Sorcerer

Mr. Bubbles has been labeled a Wolf by our seer, but yet everyone is wary to vote. The longer we take lynching Mr. Bubbles the more chances we allow the wolves and their ally to muddy the waters.

Lastly, Kill me if you like as I am a unpowered human, but my vote stays where it is. I won't engage in debate and post til this day is over.

[Remus West]

Mod's note:
I leave tomorrow evening to visit my sister. I will not be back until Saturday afternoon. I will have some access while there but will not likely want to take the time to monitor things closely.

[Kraegor]

empty bluffs all over the place this game. tru1cy threatening to do what he always does. my god! the suspense is nerve wracking!

[Scoop20906]

Happy Holidays from beyond the grave!

[Grundbegriff]

Happy Holidays from beyond the grave!

Happy Thanksgraving!

[redrun]

Mr. Bubbles has been labeled a Wolf by our seer, but yet everyone is wary to vote. The longer we take lynching Mr. Bubbles the more chances we allow the wolves and their ally to muddy the waters.

Lastly, Kill me if you like as I am a unpowered human, but my vote stays where it is. I won't engage in debate and post til this day is over.

-- I'll have a whole lot more time later today, so I'll post some more catchup later.

What I'm seeing:

We have Mr. Bubbles ensuring the whore stays alive.
Mr. Bubbles may have a special effect when he dies:
- The special effect does not change length of game
- The special effect could cost us a player
- Having the whore live does change length of game
So, best to leave Mr. Bubbles around for a day.

We have Mr. Bubbles giving the wolves an extra vote.
We have folks trying to figure who to lynch based on
their votes for Mr. Bubbles - without any knowledge if
Mr. Bubbles is a special effect wolf or a plain ol wolf.
The whore has a number of other folks she could hide
between, and at least one player would like her to do so at
least once. We learn stuff when Mr. Bubbles dies.
There may be evil humans making Mr. Bubbles vote even
more dangerous.

[Unagi]

We have Mr. Bubbles ensuring the whore stays alive.
Mr. Bubbles may have a special effect when he dies:
- The special effect does not change length of game
- The special effect could cost us a player
- Having the whore live does change length of game
So, best to leave Mr. Bubbles around for a day.

We have Mr. Bubbles giving the wolves an extra vote.
We have folks trying to figure who to lynch based on
their votes for Mr. Bubbles - without any knowledge if
Mr. Bubbles is a special effect wolf or a plain ol wolf.
The whore has a number of other folks she could hide
between, and at least one player would like her to do so at
least once. We learn stuff when Mr. Bubbles dies.
There may be evil humans making Mr. Bubbles vote even
more dangerous.

+1

I look forward to the rest.

Of the remaining two wolves, part of me feels that at this moment - one of them is on the MrB vote, one is hanging back.

[Bakhtosh]

1. Mr Bubbles
2. Newcastle
3. Chaosraven
4. Unagi
5. redrun
6. Kraegor
7. Bakhtosh
8. Austin
9. Semaj
10. tru1cy

2 wolves + Mr.Bubbles
2 Evil powers (some combination of Wolves and/or evil humans)
Worst Case: 3 wolves & 2 evil humans. If that were the case, the evil players could run the board right now with but a single vote on an innocent. We cannot afford to vote for an innocent this turn.

If we miss today, there will be 3 wolves alive tomorrow and as many as 2 evil humans. There will be 8 players alive, leaving a majority vote of 5, giving the wolves the victory by virture of their votes.

I don't think we can afford to NOT hit a wolf today.

If no other specials self out today, what does that mean?
6 good powers
Possible good powered:
Stessier - confirmed special
Lassr - hints, but no claim
Grund - no claim (iirc)
Scoop - claimed special, but no details
Chris - claimed unpowered at lynch time
Purge - claimed unpowered at lynch time

If Stess, Lassr, Grund AND Scoop were all powered, and no other powers out themselves today, then we have to trust Chaos and Kraegor. So we need every good power to self out right now.

No one needs to cast a vote for someone who may be good. Obviously Bubbles is a wolf, and I will never fault anyone for voting for a wolf - even if strategy says there may be a "better" move...the goal of the game is to kill wolves.

We don't NEED Chaos & Kraegor alive to win the game...but if they are who they claim, then it makes the endgame a breeze.

If Kraegor is a wolf, chaos MUST be an evil player. There is no way Chaos can be good if Kraegor is not the whore.

It is possible that Chaos is evil and Kraegor is the whore. I'd rank it as unlikely, but possible.

I still can't kick the gut feeling that Bubbles needs to die now. I refuse to play an active role in leaving a known wolf alive while lynching a possible human that will give the game to the wolves.

I realize that if Kraegor is the whore, lynching Bubbles will likely end up getting Kraegor killed...unless Kraegor finds one of the other two wolves out of the 7:
1. Newcastle
2. Unagi
3. redrun
4. Bakhtosh
5. Austin
6. Semaj
7. tru1cy

That's a 2/7 chance of him living through the night (33% if he takes my name off the list since I'm human).

[Bakhtosh]

Of the remaining two wolves, part of me feels that at this moment - one of them is on the MrB vote, one is hanging back.

Who's on the Bubbles vote? tru1cy and myself?

According to your theory, you have a 50/50 shot of hitting a wolf. Them's good odds.

[Unagi]

Of the remaining two wolves, part of me feels that at this moment - one of them is on the MrB vote, one is hanging back.

Who's on the Bubbles vote? tru1cy and myself?

According to your theory, you have a 50/50 shot of hitting a wolf. Them's good odds.

Smells a little like you are taunting me.

[Mr Bubbles]

Of the remaining two wolves, part of me feels that at this moment - one of them is on the MrB vote, one is hanging back.

Who's on the Bubbles vote? tru1cy and myself?

According to your theory, you have a 50/50 shot of hitting a wolf. Them's good odds.

Smells a little like you are taunting me.

I wouldn't worry Unagi. Seeing how the bandwagon hasn't really materialized to this point I think a lot of people are cautious. I don't blame them, I would be too.

[Unagi]

I forgot that he hadn't actually cast his vote yet. I would include Austin in the bunch with you and Tru1cy.

I agree with Tru1cy. We need to force Kraegor to talk to someone else. Yes, I changed my mind as I have not heard him confirmed from a reliable source really yet. Anyone he talks to gives us information. If he talks to a wolf who denies him, we get the wolf. If he talks to a villager, unconfirmed or not, at least we can rely on Kraegor being confirmed or not. (Of course if he talks to a wolf and they confirm him, it's a tough call but it's still info)

I'll wait on my vote though in case anything fun happens.

Actually, I should include him in both groups.

One Wolf:
Austin
Bakhtosh
tru1cy

The Other Wolf:
Austin
Newcastle
redrun
Semaj
(Unagi)

I'll also note that Austin claims to be agreeing with Tru1cy, but then says it's about forcing Kraegor to talk to someone else (which is more Bakhtosh's angle). Austin should have said he agreed with Bakhtosh. Tru1cy said that he just doesn't want to over-think things, and simply wanted to vote for the wolf we know about.

[Unagi]

I wouldn't worry Unagi.

I actually have you to thank. I think you mistakenly verified Kraegor a while back.

If it was done purposefully to establish his cred, and he's truly a wolf - I will applaud the move. But I think you slipped.

Now, so as to avoid looking the total fool. I will wait until the end of the game to point it out. (and only do so, if I am right. )

[purge]

Happy Holidays from beyond the grave!

Happy Thanksgraving!

Happy normal day from Canada!

[Mr Bubbles]

I wouldn't worry Unagi.

I actually have you to thank. I think you mistakenly verified Kraegor a while back.

If it was done purposefully to establish his cred, and he's truly a wolf - I will applaud the move. But I think you slipped.

Now, so as to avoid looking the total fool. I will wait until the end of the game to point it out. (and only do so, if I am right. )

Everything I do has a reason. When it's all over I'll explain. Then we can compare notes

[Mr Bubbles]

I wouldn't worry Unagi.

I actually have you to thank. I think you mistakenly verified Kraegor a while back.

If it was done purposefully to establish his cred, and he's truly a wolf - I will applaud the move. But I think you slipped.

Now, so as to avoid looking the total fool. I will wait until the end of the game to point it out. (and only do so, if I am right. )

Actually you could lynch Kraegor and after the fact I'll confirm what I know

[Unagi]

I agree with Tru1cy. We need to force Kraegor to talk to someone else. Yes, I changed my mind as I have not heard him confirmed from a reliable source really yet. Anyone he talks to gives us information.

There are just so many holes though in this test.


Let's say we've got a whore, and she sleeps with a Bubba-Villager tonight.
1. Tomorrow Bubba steps up and says "yeah, whore spoke with me... bummer that she's dead now." Does Bubba gain any cred, I think yes, right? unless 2 people claim it...
2. Tomorrow Bubba steps up and says "yeah, whore spoke with me... and we're both still alive!" Does the village have any clue what to do with this result?, It looks just like #3 and #6.

or, the whore sleeps with a wolf.
3. Tomorrow Hidden-Wolf steps up and says "yeah, whore spoke with me... and we're both still alive!" Does the village have any clue what to do with this result? It looks just like #2 and #6.
4. Tomorrow Hidden-Wolf denies the Whores claim. (this looks just like #5. We test the 'whores' claim - and kill the Hidden-Wolf, Good Result. Now the whore is proven, but could be used create a double kill the following night.


Now, let's say, there is no whore... (that made me think of The Matrix)
5. Tomorrow the whore claims to have slept with Bubba. Bubba denies the whore's claim. This looks just like #4. We test the whore's claim - and kill Bubba, Bad Result. Now the whore is exposed as a wolf, perhaps a good deal.
6. Tomorrow the whore claims to have slept with Hidden-Wolf, who says "yeah, whore spoke with me... and we're both still alive!" Does the village have any clue what to do with this result? It looks just like #2 and #3.


What did we gain exactly?

#1 is a net 'hit' to our situation. 'Bubba' will simply be the next nights kill.
#2 is nice but looks just like #3 and #6 which are Not Nice.
#3 is a mess for the village.
#4 is great for the vilalge, but the wolves make the call between #3 and #4. I wonder which they would pick.
#5 perhaps the best outcome - as it would clearly expose a wolf, but at the cost of a miss.
#6 looks just like #2 and #3 and how will we pick which it is exactly?

Did I miss any scenarios?

I feel the vast majority - if not all of those scenarios look like 'no gain', or worse.

The scenarios that all fall under "We have a Whore" (#1 - #4) are really not as informative as I'd like. (again, #4 is good, but the wolves control it).

This makes me lean that wolves are pushing for this Kraegor test.
And, of course - add to that the strong desire the wolves have to remove a self-protecting whore.

I'm open to hear people discuss this - I just think this is only a smart play if you are leaning strongly that you feel Kraegor is lying.

If you are 50/50 or leaning slightly that Kraegor is truly the whore, I think it's a bad play, potentially a horrendous play.

[Unagi]

Not to mention, would Mr.Bubbles really be such a bothersom gnat if it was in our best interest to lynch him?

No, he wants everyone to be reminded that they have a great target - him.. and why don't we just take it !?

[Mr Bubbles]

Not to mention, would Mr.Bubbles really be such a bothersom gnat if it was in our best interest to lynch him?

No, he wants everyone to be reminded that they have a great target - him.. and why don't we just take it !?

Maybe I'm trying to annoy you so you do lynch me... Or maybe I'm trying to infer I'm the berserker so you keep me alive and leave three wolves out and about for that much longer. What to believe, what to believe.

[Bakhtosh]

Checked in today (not claiming special):
Unagi
redrun
Bakhtosh
Austin

Checked in (claims special):
Chaosraven
Kraegor

Has not checked in:
Newcastle
Semaj
tru1cy (I think he checked in before the call for all specials to out)

Who cares:
Mr Bubbles

I'll say it again, unless we get some unexpected specials outed, we have no choice but to trust the existing claims.

[Bakhtosh]

I'll say it again, unless we get some unexpected specials outed, we have no choice but to trust the existing claims.

If we have no other specials come out, it means that Lassr, Grund, Stess, and Scoop were all specials (assuming we believe Grenard and Purge).

[Semaj]

ton of musings following, mainly thoery on powers left and who may have had what... once I read a few bajillion pages... twitch...

[Unagi]

ton of musings following, mainly thoery on powers left and who may have had what... once I read a few bajillion pages... twitch...

Yes, let's get some actual input from you Semaj.

[Semaj]

Original List:

Players:
1. Scoop20906 - Claimed Special
2. Mr Bubbles - Wolf
3. Purge - Claimed Normal Villager
4. theohall - Wolf
5. Newcastle - ?
6. Mipe - Claimed Herbalist
7. Chaosraven - Claims Wolvesbane
8. Unagi - ?
9. redrun - ?
10. Lassr - Died First (Herbailst?)
11. stessier - Seer
12. Chris Grenard - Claimed Normal Villager
13. Grundbegriff - ?
14. Kraegor - Claims Whore
15. Bakhtosh - Claims Wolf Pup
16. Austin - ?
17. Semaj - for this: ?
18. tru1cy - ?

Where we are at Based off above:
Dead:
1. Scoop20906 - Claimed Special
3. Purge - Claimed Normal Villager
4. theohall - - Wolf
6. Mipe - Claimed Herbalist
10. Lassr - Died First (Herbailst?)
11. stessier - Seer
12. Chris Grenard - Claimed Normal Villager
13. Grundbegriff - ?

Alive:
2. Mr Bubbles - Wolf
5. Newcastle - ?
7. Chaosraven - Claims Wolvesbane
8. Unagi - ?
9. redrun - ?
14. Kraegor - Claims Whore
15. Bakhtosh - Claims Wolf Pup
16. Austin - ?
17. Semaj - ?
18. tru1cy - ?

Claimed Roles:
Chaosraven, Kraegor, Bakhtosh, Scoop, Mipe, Stessier

If no one is lying we have our 6.

If Someone is lying we do not, based on that thought, there are 4 Possibly dead people who could have had roles:
Lassr, Grund, Purge and Chris.

Two claimed nothing, 2 claimed Normal Villager.

There is also a chance we have caught and killed a Witch/Sorcerer in the same grouping. Still better to be wrong and assume we have missed than be wrong and assume we have hit.

Based on that:

Wolf Pile:
Given:
4. theohall - - Wolf
2. Mr Bubbles - Wolf

Not so Given:
5. Newcastle - ?
7. Chaosraven - Claims Wolvesbane
8. Unagi - ?
9. redrun - ?
14. Kraegor - Claims Whore
15. Bakhtosh - Claims Wolf Pup
16. Austin - ?
17. Semaj - ?
18. tru1cy - ?

We have 2 wolves.. There are 2 more (Or humans sympathizing with the wolf cause), 1 of the three left is unpowered.

More Coming...

[Semaj]

Trying not to make one gigantic post here...

More coming

[Mr Bubbles]

I feel like I have scarlet letter over my chest. Man people think you're a wolf and all of a sudden you're no one's friend. Speciesist!

[Semaj]

Last on as the semaj posts.

We have 2 wolves.. There are 2 more (Or humans sympathizing with the wolf cause), 1 of the three left is unpowered.

Now on Semaj

Odds of Bubbles Being unpowered:
1/3rd (if you go by 1 out of 3 left)
1/5th (if you go by 5 possible wolf powers)

Odds of Bubbles being powered:
66% (2 out of 3 for left)
80% (4 outof 5 for possible wolf powers)

Odds of Bubbles being a berserker:
44% (If you go by someone elses post)
25% (Actual math, 1 out of 4 5th is unpowered, not counting for that))



Misses left based on 3 baddies left:
Misses left not killing bubbles till last:
10 people left, 3 baddies:
Miss, Night kill
8 people left
Miss, Night Kill
6 people left, 3 baddies
If no bad guys have died, game ends: 2 misses, 2 days

Misses if Bubbles is not berserker, and he dies today.
10 people left, 3 baddies
Kill Bubbles, Night kill
8 people left, 2 Baddies
Miss, Night kill
6 people left, 2 baddies
Miss, Night Kill
4 people left, 2 baddies
Game Over: 2 misses, but 3 days.

Misses if Bubbles is the berserker, and he dies today:
10 people left, 3 baddies
Kill Bubbles, he kills someone, night kill
7 People Left, 2 Baddies
miss, night kill
5 people left, 2 baddies
miss, game over (4 people, 2 baddies)
2 misses, 3 days.

The only way this changes is if Bubbles is a berserker and They cant a 2 for 1 with kraegor (if whore).

More coming...

[Semaj]

We have 2 misses based on this....

Questions that have been bugging me:
1) Why Mipe over Chaosraven/Bakhtosh?
It lends strength to Mipe being a Herbalist, but if they cannot kill Chaosraven and Bakhtosh, wouldnt they worry about killing one or the other? If they havent used all their kill the pup moves, Bak can be ignored. If they have a second berserker, Chaos can be killed at a later point in time. But at some point in time, we have to wonder about the possible wolf levels of someone out in the open.

2) Provability: If I were a wolf and I got a special, I could then claim ANY OTHER special in the game, esp one that is hard to prove. The fact I cant be killed or somewhat close should say a lot about difficulty levels. Plus the Seer died after 2 or 3 scans. Of which only one can be found out with the aid of another powered individual. From this point on, even if we get a good guy or a bad guy, we dont actually know. If Bak dies and is a wolf, he could very well be telling the truth or he could be lying. But this is fixable to some extent, explained later.

3) Wolf Role thoughts:
Sorcerer thoughts: Theo was a berserker, As such, even if there is a sorcerer, the other powered wolf would have to be an apprentice, find him to then be able to pm him. So if we do have a sorcerer, he's playing without wolf help.
Apprentice Wolf: We could have 1 or even 2 of them. They spend every night twiddling thier thumbs. They are essentially unpowered for this. Meaning you have a chance of 3 unpowered wolves left.

Bubbles being powered matters for calculating things. If he is powered, we can cut down on the roles the wolves have immensely.
If he doesnt explode, he is either unpowered, Master or Apprentice.
If He does explode, they have 1 powered left:
Either a Berserker, Master or Apprentice. Meaning we have a 66% chance they have been killing at night blind.

Reasoning: They would have to have used a rabid wolf by now. So we can remove him.
Wolf Roles:
Sorcerer, Witch, Master, Berserker, Apprentice, Unpowered

Bubbles is a wolf: he has to be Master, Berserker, Apprentice or Unpowered.

Rather than worry about what people are, we can spend much less time calculating possible wolf roles left and what it does to our selection process and determining if people who die are actually human or not.

I really need to read through what we have closer and see if I can get better thoughts on people.

[Mr Bubbles]

I can give you a quick analysis. You guys need to find the other two wolves and fast.

[Unagi]

Huh?

[Semaj]

My real problem is I have to go hit the bars in a little bit, and I'll be out... o ... 8 to 12 hours minimum... Since well everyone I know is working tonight and it means I can drink for free at like 6 different places.

So I probably cant really do player analysis until I get back, meaning tomorrow.

But since I'ma be by myself with nothing to do all day it's a good day to do it... twitch...

Hopefully the number crunching gives you all something to think about...

[Unagi]

That was to Semaj.


Huh?

[Unagi]

Hopefully the number crunching gives you all something to think about...

No, it didn't.
I read your first two posts and just glossed over it all.
We don't know enough to paint any meaningful "odds of their being another zerker" and what the hell diference does it make.

You are not even talking to the mater at hand here at all.

What is your opinion on Anything?

How did you come to this conclusion:

Sorcerer thoughts: Theo was a berserker, As such, even if there is a sorcerer, the other powered wolf would have to be an apprentice, find him to then be able to pm him. So if we do have a sorcerer, he's playing without wolf help.

And -

I really need to read through what we have closer and see if I can get better thoughts on people.

Just how many times are we going to re-read you saying you are going to really need to read.

[Kraegor]

/shrug. largely irrelevant what Bubbles is.

 Mr Bubbles 
 


As for Unagi being the sorceror that's a useful viewpoint in only one respective. With lack of any better options, if a miss must be made, killing the lunatic tends to help calm things down. Thus presuming the worst case happens and Chaos and I are dead come daylight Friday. Kill Unagi.

Bahltosh claims wolfdog which would assure him of not dying at night until 2nd to last. i.e. very last would be chaos.
Bahktosh returns and says "aww I was just kiddin yous guys!"
Bahktosh then accuses me of being "suspect" because I did not reveal his entire house of half-chewed cards. Which is asinine.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. I am the one power in this game that does not have to do a damn thing. I do not have to "prove" myself to any specific one of you because such action is inherently flawed. You already have dual verification of my status from 2 separate observers. The claims already conflict. A 3rd contact exists in the form of a dead wolf, theohall. I confirmed that one by calling theohall an idiot for trying to "force" me out and I then voted for him based on that behavior. But all those things are not good enough for some. They need 1 more contact... someone not a wolf... cuz really... if I contact someone not a wolf it will cement that I am indeed the whore. IDIOCY!

Do I find all doubters to my claim suspicious? Hell yes. And with 4 apparent wild cards in this deck it is easy to find a cross-section of behavior amongst the doubters.

Let's run down how the doubter plan for proving the whore is fuckin stupid, shall we?