WWL: Chapter 1 - Friday [day] - Stessier: the final siesta

[Grundbegriff]

Yup, but as you said, the werewolves win if you dont die.

P: Any Villager who wakes up tomorrow will have to vote against one of the two remaining players. If I'm one of those players tomorrow, then the other Villager will say this to himself: "Grundbegriff is alive on the final day. That only happens if he's evil. Therefore, I have to vote against Grundbegriff." Then he'll vote against me, the Wolf will jump on the vote, and the Werewolves will win the game.

Am I mistaken about this? I don't think so. And this means that there's a sure two-step path to Werewolf Victory: (1) Keep me alive today, and (2) Keep me alive tonight.

You left out this part, which comes immediately afterward :

Therefore, short of actually killing the Wolf today, the only hope we have of achieving victory is to kill me today so that the Wolf cannot set up that scenario.

Most of this game, I have had Stessier near my top baddies and once Tru1cy ended day 2, he became one of my top baddies as well, along with you grund.

Reasonable, if you're human. This is, after all, a rather difficult endgame as these things go.

If I am not the wolf, based on my viewpoint, who do you think really is the final wolf? Me... I have a decent idea, which is why I like my chances of picking correctly in that coin flip tomorrow... Like I said though, this only works if you try looking at it from my perspective.

I've said what I have to say. I've interacted with each of the three of you. I hope I've turned up some earth and stones, and that two heroes will be able to pelt the pelt-bearer on the final day.

[Lassr]

Ok, I still want to remove Grund today just to be safe and then if he is really a villager then let it come down to the last day.

[Remus West]

[stessier]

Grund being could be a ruse to get us to lynch a innocent

Grund being what?

Keep catching up

What do you mean? I caught up and never saw what you meant.

There is a 3. I can see the WWs gambling on the villagers being antsy about Grund being alive and use him as red herring. A wasted lynch gets them one step closer to winning

Oh yeah, can't imagine why I didn't make that connection.

[stessier]

At this point, unless we decide not to lynch Grund, I see no point in announcing who I will vote for tomorrow if I make it... It allows the wolf the ability to pick and choose who they think gives them the best chance of winning.

Yeah, because you have been such an enigma to this point.

You made 3 posts on the last page. The third was quoting the Remus vote and saying a wolf voted for him.

OK thats 4... so no last words for remus...

Its all on Kraegor...

Prediction: he comes up wolfy... If he does... tonight Newcastle dies... Our vote tomorrow is pretty straight forward.. it's grund. Afterwards I suggest if he is a villager, we nuke stessier... if eh is still around

If he comes up human... Newcaslte first.. then I dont know... twitch.. Grund...

Either way... No idea what you were trying to do grund... but if you are a villager... You get the scoop/remus award for odd and possibly bad play. Because barring a minor miracle, I see no way we dont lynch you.

I like the options set forward...

My guess is Stessier is the wolf... Based on Vote 3 on Newcaslte amongst other reasons. MY guess is Newcaslte had 2 wolf votes and 1 nonwolf vote. As such our options are (as I see them)... Kill Grund, Kill Stessier hope Semaj is right... Or Kill Stessier, Kill Grund, Hope Semaj is right

Any comments/thoughts/Etc about the order/people we should lynch?

Gee, I wonder where you stand?

[stessier]

Even so, I think Lassr is human for a separate reason: the way he rode Remus after the revelation that Unagi had been killed. It's not just that he took on Remus; Remus's partner might well do that. But what persuades me is the way Lassr did this: he appealed to his growing sense of Bubbles's guilt --a sense I shared-- and he pointed out that Remus lacked that sense. Then Lassr called a lot of attention to the prospect that Remus had framed himself. On the whole, Remus wasn't garnering much attention at that point, and it would've been prudent for a Remus-partner to coast. But Lassr mounted a genuine and persuasive argument-- persuasive enough, it seems, that Newcastle decided to scan Remus in light of Unagi's plea and Lassr's analysis of it.

Newcastle said he scanned Remus because he thought he was good.

actually i picked you to scan, simply because if good, i could build a nice block of good guys...you should actually be pleased about that....i was surprised as hell that you came back wolfy to be honest. seriously surprised. Knowing i had you, i had to make some fast calculations and deductions and thought your likely partner was...and well here we are.

I'm not saying you are wrong, just that not everyone saw it that way.

That leaves tru1cy and Semaj.

Fourth: There's the huge superabundance of participation. I hadn't realized along the way just how much Semaj was posting. But rereading the thread makes it clear that he is outdoing himself when it comes to volume of posting.

How many posts are on a search page? 40? Do you really find that to be a lot for Semaj? I actually thought he had been quieter than normal.

Then there's the quality of all that material: it's long on words but short on substance. For example, in one case he wrote a summary of the game up to that point. But it wasn't just a summary: he paraphrased each post by every player into a single short sentence and then posted the whole list without meaningfully making use of all that stuff.

Now that I agree with, especially after my quote fest re-read.

If I'm right about Semaj, and if there's a consensus that he's the other Wolf, we can win outright just by killing him. But if discussion reveals significant disagreement among us, then I counsel that you kill me after the discussion in order to prevent scenario P (above) from unfolding.

You start by saying the best way to wolfy victory is keeping you alive and end by asking us to consider lynching Semaj? Because after re-reading with the knowledge that Remus was a wolf, I'm much less sure about my read on you. The quote that really bugs me is when you said that if you were a wolf, killing Unagi is something you would do. Unagi's death there is so not what I expected, and Remus was one of the ones in on it? I could see you being the one to convince him of it, and its bugging me.

[stessier]

the way he rode Remus

I need to print this out and frame it.

Really? Disturbing!

See, this is why I pray for the sweet release of death. Is wolfy Lassr mocking Grund, or is wolfy Grund mocking Lassr?

[stessier]

Being more careful?

Seriously?

Well prolly a little... More like I'd like to do more than read the spoilers after day 1... but the only thing I haven't done this game is spend all day and night on the boards and post a gazillion times. If that makes me a wolf.. bah humbug.

Not sure what grunds thing is, but if you really think I am the wolf because I saw no point to tipping my hand to the woves fine...

if thats the case, test me.. not like I didnt request to be scanned a few bajillion times by now.. Still...

lets go through the possible scenarios where I am not the wolf... because its fun.

1) Grund is the wolf... Shouldnt be a problem, we'll be killing him today or tomorrow.
2) Lassr is the wolf - Dont think he is a wolf, said this for about... 4 days now... said if he is playing one bravo to him.
3) Stessier is the wolf - I am scarily right... Screw you all, damn hippies. He's pretty much been all over my evil list for a day and a half now... Feel free to check my damn threat matrix sometime.
4) Tru1cy is the wolf - well I've had him on my list for a while now as well... Didnt like how he ended the day... He's the only one I'd debate voting for over stessier.

As such I've announced my votes... gee I wonder who the wolves will pick.

Still Lets compare and contrast why I think they are evil, in case the above wasnt enough....

1) Grund - fake seer gambit, "1 sly player" got Lagom killed... Would thoroughly enjoy screwing with us...
2) Lassr - Bah... Lassr is playing solid... hate him for it.
3) Stessier - he's been throwing accusations at EVERYONE... trying to find a few things to stick for when he is the last guy with 2 others. My guess is he is trying to get the two most likely to vote for each other and him. Which this decision process makes infinitely easier. The reason I saw no point to tipping my damn hand. It's not the way he's played, its the way he's done certain things.. .The trying to make everyone else look evil... The way he defended his own wolf claims... Makes me think he is the one, something you said yesterday, but when I dont feel the need to announce this (Although I did today.. go look) suddenly I am the wolf... for not saying everything I think and feel? Pshah
4) Tru1cy - Like I said before.. Not a fan of his voting or posting habits, or how he has said almost nothing about anyone. Still it's the way Tru1cy plays...

I'm amazed you just now are noticing the meal comment... And how this is suddenly a change from what I normally do? If anything, it's been my standard MO for almost every game I play. I get names and rules wrong. it's a skill of not really caring that shines through. I dont want to hear people argue rules for 3 days, I wanna try and find werewolves.

As for my superabundance of posting... I'm confuzzled... Any more posting than you do? Do I usually not post? How is this different than normal? If anything I'm posting less than most games... Not a lot less, but well, i guess if you are digging around searching for anything, this will do.

Tell ya what... You wanna lose the game, go with this, i'm the big bad werewolf. I'm down... We can call it grundacide, it'll rock.

However, lets look at a previous game and see why James Stopped trying to do things...

James was the only proven good, who couldn't be killed... He had the other evilder on him "People we should test today" list and Grund on his "Dont kill him" list.. then one of the other good guys decided to poison grund, who responded in kind, the third good guy jumped on the pile and allowed the bad guy to poison the last good guy and win the game for his team.

Meaning, Even when I am a proven, people don't really listen to what I have to say as much as just glance through it looking for screwups...

So yeah, I give you all a list of who I think is evil and why... But to expect me to spend 3 hours in massive detail calculating every possible outcome, not gonna happen anymore...

Wow. Just - wow.

[stessier]

Grund makes some sense.. The question is can I vote for Semaj? I think I can at this point

Could you elucidate the argument that made this possible?

[stessier]

Grund makes some sense.. The question is can I vote for Semaj? I think I can at this point

Then the village loses... good job.

Why would a vote against you mean that the village loses?

If it's OK for me to die as a human today, isn't it equally OK for you to die as a human today?

Yup, but as you said, the werewolves win if you dont die.

P: Any Villager who wakes up tomorrow will have to vote against one of the two remaining players. If I'm one of those players tomorrow, then the other Villager will say this to himself: "Grundbegriff is alive on the final day. That only happens if he's evil. Therefore, I have to vote against Grundbegriff." Then he'll vote against me, the Wolf will jump on the vote, and the Werewolves will win the game.

Am I mistaken about this? I don't think so. And this means that there's a sure two-step path to Werewolf Victory: (1) Keep me alive today, and (2) Keep me alive tonight.

So yes you are correct. Because most of us assume you are a wolf if you make it to the final day, there is nothing surprising about this, rumor has it you are pretty darn good at this game.

Wait, I'm confused. We lose if we lynch you, because in that scenario, we lynch Grund tomorrow - Because he is so very good at these games and makes it to the last day where we have no choice but to lynch him. But we only lose if we lynch 2 humans - so you know Grund is human?? And this after that last big post...

Most of this game, I have had Stessier near my top baddies and once Tru1cy ended day 2, he became one of my top baddies as well, along with you grund.

Now you tell me... who do you think I would be guessing is a wolf and why?

Now think some more. If I am not the wolf, based on my viewpoint, who do you think really is the final wolf? Me... I have a decent idea, which is why I like my chances of picking correctly in that coin flip tomorrow... Like I said though, this only works if you try looking at it from my perspective.

Yeah, glad you are keeping all that on the DL so the wolves won't know which way you intend to vote.

[stessier]

Gonna try and not pad the post count this time.

 grundbegriff 
 


i say we lynch him today...sorry i dont buy letting him live. I also dont buy his absence on day 1. A good grund would have done as much as possible to wring information from the day....and day 1 as well. He is very cognizant of his time alotted in these games, and it's usually not much. So yeah...grund is a wolf.

slow down wolf boy.

Unless Grund starts getting close on pinpointing an actual wolf then I do not think they will kill him at night knowing we must eliminate him eventually. Do we risk keeping him alive? Sorry, that backfired on me a few games back and I cannot do that. I really want to vote for you though Newcastle but we need to discuss this Grund vote. I've seen nothing that convinces me Grund is innocent, I've also not seen much that points to his guilt, other than the fact that he is dead wrong about me and he voted for theohall.

I devoted considerable effort to analyzing the first day's gameplay. I merely did it on the second day.

The clearest demonstration of my innocence is the fact that Lagom Lite was slain last night. I would've left him alive to toy with him, to savor the challenge of trying to turn the crowd against him, if I were a werewolf. I certainly wouldn't have removed him from play merely for being dangerous.

I still believe that {Lassr, Newcastle, Semaj} contains two werewolves.

using your argument, the clearest demonstration of my innocence is the fact that Unagi was slain on the second night. I would've left him alive so the villagers could toy with him the next day, distracting them from the real wolves and possibly lynch him.

tru1cy's behavior day one by voting early was odd. His vote yesterday showed a lack of concern regarding who died (meaning possible role not player) - also out of character. His post today regarding pushing Grund to 2 is out of character. I could easily vote tru1cy today.

The reason I have not yet is that I worry about Grund. I see nothing to say that Grund is a wolf right now. This is not the first game he has been quiet on day 1 iirc. His behavior on day 2 seemed to justify his day 1 to me. He used people's reactions to his day 1 behavior to split the group into sections of folks he leaned one way or the other regarding - He used his day 1 activities to form his conclusions about folks day 2. This is typical Grund. My trouble is that this is typical Grund regardless of his alignment. I lean that Grund is good but every time I have done this in the past I have gotten burned. I'm busy second guessing myself regarding him. The only thing that folks have given as a real reason to vote him is his silence and as I noted above, I see his silence as part of typical Grund analysis.

This brings me to Newcastle. I would have expected him to have the same analysis regarding Grund as I did with regards to his (Grund's) day 1. I feel like Newcastle and I tend to approach the game similarly so his reading the exact opposite into Grund bothers me. Particularly when that is the entire push he makes against him - ignoring Theohall's push entirely.

Which is not to say I think Theohall is the Seer. Were he the Seer and had scanned a wolf in Grund he would have announced it rather than just pushed. I think. This makes me think that, if Theohall were the Seer and Grundbegriff a wolf, I doubt Grund would have made those posts claiming to lean towards Theo's innocence. Which means that I do not see a tru1cy/Grund partnership with tru1cy casting his vote to silence a potential Seer. I could see tru1cy tossing his vote there if he were a wolf and his side was confident they had identified the Seer.

I feel like I might be partially responsible for that. I thought Lagom Lite was the Seer (If I'm wrong then I think the Seer needs to come forward today as tomorrow we will have no way to trust him anyway if we miss today because tomorrow will be our last miss). Lagom's listing of the players with the comment that Lassr "checks out" made me think he was claiming a scan of Lassr (and was what I intended on calling him out on today to either force him to claim or admit to setting grounds for faking). It was why I posted that "check it out" bit about Lassr being scared of Grund calling him a wolf. Maybe my post highlighted it for them and got him killed. Either way, right now I lean very heavily towards trusting Lassr because of it.

I would think that if tru1cy is a wolf (and I think he is) then his partner would want the credit for "catching" him. Thus stessier's vote stands out to me since he also provided very little in the way of reasoning behind it. He says that tru1cy is "hiding around the fringes" when from my perspective tru1cy is closer to in the thick of it than he has ever been before. Odd.

I see a tru1cy/stessier combo much more readily than a tru1cy/newcastle one.

I have no read on Semaj right now. He seems busy patting himself on the back for not being the focus of the lynch mob which is a bad sign but he also has obviously not read the thread carefully which shows a lack of wolfy interest.

sorry for the semi-stream of consciousness post.

 tru1cy 
 

That actually makes me feel a little better about tru1cy. Remus only needed to get 4 votes that day and his was the second with a pack mate waiting to make it 3.

Forgive me for actually playing this time. Voting Theohall was impatience on my part. Nonetheless, I'll follow my gut  grundbegriff 
 
If it was early in the game I would have voted for myself, but since I'm a simple village..

Been putting on weight over the holidays?

This is Lagom's post that I was thinking of. Notice he says I am a good guy (which he had mentioned thinking earlier so I did not read much into that) but that Lassr "checks out". Only one role has the ability to check anyone out.
.

Thanks for reminding me of that post, with all the outages I had lost track and forgot about it.

At the time of his post I was thinking he is either trying to get on my good side because I had him on my short list or he was leaving a hint that he scanned me. Because how could he know I checked out just from my posts when we haven't even played a game together and I have no feel for how he plays and surely he doesn't have a feel for how I play since he came on board after my last game.

So now that he has died at night it makes me really wonder if he was the seer. The seer would have 2 scans now. This may be a good time to step forward (if I recall the wolves will not know if they killed the seer at night so faking could be risky).

Is this two wolves making sure the Seer is gone before spoofing?

My question I have about tru1cy as a wolf is would he be the type to throw out a quick kill vote on an innocent , knowing it would put him directly in the cross-hairs of everyone. That's risky play and I can't clearly recall him ever being that in your face when he's bad. Of course, my memory is not what it use to be so maybe he has in the past.

Not sure I remember his ever being a wolf but the quick vote is a change in his usual behavior. That is what makes me think he is a wolf. When has tru1cy ever been impatient before? When has he voted for someone other than himself day 1 with nothing at all to go on? When has he been this active?

Yes, I agree but would tru1cy be so obvious in his behavioral change if he's a wolf. He's a vet, he should know that would draw attention. But, if he's no wolf, then why the change in behavior? I'm not ruling out the possibility that he's a wolf, just not ready to cast a vote yet on anyone.

Lassr sets him up and Remus runs with it, followed by a Lassr "please show everyone you convinced me it was necessary" post. Just biding their time to see if anyone bites on the Seer stuff?

Then Newcastle comes out as Seer.

Grumble...

Newcastles the seer? And he says tru1cy is a villager? Frrraaaaak Well if I wasn't completely wrong...

OK lesse... Here is hoping above all hopes the guy he scanned who is innocent is me.... which would be odd, but pausible.

I am not sure what else you wanted from me in terms of thoughts... but since I will get to exclude you from my "probably evil list" and into the "I knew you were a special... just had you pegged wrong" list... It'll make it more interesting.

I very much would post what I think occurred and why, but I assume itr would be stealing some of your thunder... If you want, before you post explanations give me a shot at trying to guess

Anyways:
People Left:
1. Remus West
2. Grundbegriff
3. Lassr
5. Newcastle
8. Semaj
10. stessier
11. tru1cy

Remus: I recall a gambit where he thinks he was framed. Not near the minor framejob I in theory got... Thinks my lack of caring makes me less wolfy. He's right, but for the wrong reason. I rarely study anything anyone does as much as get general feels. I assume the rest of you will be english nazi's for me.
Grund: Been saying he needs to die today or tomorrow unless the seer(in theory newcastle) outs him as a non-wolf. Even then I would prolly question the seer as actually being the seer. Lot of deaths at this point, the only good thing is if the wolves are faking a seer gambit, they have no idea if the seer is really dead.
Lassr: Been pretty much completely and utterly under my radar this entire game. I havent seen anything from him that feels wofly, which probably means he is one... And I have him completely wrong.
Newcastle: Claims seer. You are pretty much the only person to even try putting the screws to me, which makes me wonder if you are indeed the seer. Why the hell doesnt the seer ever scan me when I am good?
Semaj: Villager
Stessier: been saying Stess felt wolfish to me... as in I could very well and truly throw him into the well or however the hell the lynches occur. I cant say there is any truly solid evidence... but I just got that o so important gut feeling.
Tru1cy: I didnt like the end of yesterday at all... Up until then I didnt really have him very wolfish... but afterwards, he became very very testable. I dont know if he really is a villager yet... but I still dont like his move at the end of yesterday and thats my main reason I had him high on my threat matrix.

If you asked me to name 2 and only 2 wolves:
Stessier and Grund...

Although I am thinking Lassr is one because I dont think he is...

If Newcastle hadn't outed himself and asked me:
Tr1cy and Stessier, Grund... Possibly Newcastle... I was also high on him being a wolf...

I forgot about this. Newcastle pretty much indicated that tru1cy was his scan by asking Remus and I to remove our votes so no villager dies today. Semaj is still not sure but tru1cy feels validated.

told everyone I was a villager

tru1cy has to be a Villager. We had no proof whether or not Newcastle was the real Seer, but tru1cy knew right away that he was read correctly.

Grund - how did you miss that?

But, if he's no wolf, then why the change in behavior? I'm not ruling out the possibility that he's a wolf, just not ready to cast a vote yet on anyone.

Now you're all careful and circumspect?

of course, we only need 4 votes to kill now. 2 wolves and 2 villagers, I'm not going to haphazardly throw a vote out now.

No, no - you'd never do that! Especially with Newcastle sitting there saying he has a wolf.

Why on earth would Newc step forward as Seer, though, and not fully share his information in the same post? There's little room for subterfuge under these rules.

I think I did that once when I found a wolf to see what reactions I got and see if his partner gave himself away...didn't work as I recall.

This was posted after Grund counter claimed Newcastle.

Given that Grund did not counter your claim until AFTER you named me a wolf it seems extra unlikely that he is the only other wolf.

Suppose that Grund and I are actually wolves but the village believes us and lynches you. The game does not end and thus the next two days find Grund and I hanging and losing. Regardless of his odds for surviving tomorrow, they would be better than zero. Thus it seems silly to suggest that we are both wolves. In fact, it seems a stupid play for any wolf to make countering a true Seer. I think you picked me to name wolf because I had made it clear I was not the Seer with my comments about Lagom yet many folks had expressed belief in me so I was dangerous to your side if only because you would have a harder time getting me lynched without the lie.

Given Grund's comments and steady holding to his comments on stessier and myself I would have guessed that he had scanned the two of us and found us clean but his recent interchange with stessier makes me doubt that and thus maybe I was at least right about stessier if not about tru1cy (still not ruling him out though).

Remus is still trying to get tru1cy and I killed. That would leave Lassr and Semaj alive for later.


Interesting. When Grund counterclaimed, Lassr immediately decided we needed to test Newcastle while Semaj thought we should test Remus.

/does the happy dance

we got our two wolves...villagers won! villagers won!

you know we must test you to be sure though. If you are a villager then we win by killing grund and remus the next 2 days.

Ima throw this one out there for funziez....

Both lads could be faking seer, it could be Grund and Newcastle both as wolves, which would make me way happier. I guess it all hinges on whether Remus is a wolf.

Not sure why they would make the play tho... Grund getting near death for this game? Hoping to buy him at least 1 day if not credibility?

Anyways... I am down for testing remus since it'll get us a wolf regardless and if the "wolves" let "grund" live through 2 nights, clearly he is lying as well.

Although I do like newcastles arguing/defense/etc.... Course Grund prolly has the same hints. Bleh... at least the last 2 or 3 days will be interesting.

We still hadn't heard any of Grund's scans, though.

So right now...going back through the players list...this is where i am standing, a bit more expanded.

Remus - WOLF
Grund - most likely the partner wolf (around 90% sure, could still be wrong, but i am highly doubtful)

Dude, are you the Seer or not? Grund is claiming Seer and you are claiming Seer. How can you be only 90% sure on this one? Kelric much?

It may be part of your nature, but really bad choice of language there Newcastle.

[stessier]

Ima throw this one out there for funziez....

Both lads could be faking seer, it could be Grund and Newcastle both as wolves, which would make me way happier. I guess it all hinges on whether Remus is a wolf.

I thought about this, but if we kill Newcastle today and Grund doesn't die tonight then he dies tomorrow. Case closed if they are both wolves.

Grund is way way too smart of a player to fake seer as a wolf when that loses the game for them.


So, if Newcastle scanned Remus why the hell was he pushing Grund so hard at the start of the day?

But you made that decision that Grund would never fake as a wolf in an instant. Grund BOOMED at 11:15 and you reasoned we had to test Newcastle at 11:22. Maybe I'm just slow or NASA knew what it was doing when it hired you.

When you gonna give us your scans Grund?

He's not, apparently he doesnt have em ready.

Grund, not ready...

I think I know where he's going with this so I'll wait.

You were so very sure he was faking.

/does the happy dance

we got our two wolves...villagers won! villagers won!

you know we must test you to be sure though. If you are a villager then we win by killing grund and remus the next 2 days.

So you're saying, Lassr, that this was a probe and not a serious agenda for evaluating Newc's claim?

Newcastle: Isn't it interesting that his thought here was

(a) kill you first, and if that fails
(b) kill me second, and if that fails
(c) finally get around to killing the one you claim to have scanned.

Doesn't that look, on the face of it, like an attempt to "test" you in the way most likely to keep Remus alive down to the wire (and himself as manager of the test)?

Why would Lassr have been gathering reactions at the point when he said that? It doesn't make sense.

So here's the deal, Newcastle. I know you're hung up on your intuition that i'm a Wolf, but I'm not. So I want you to step back and think carefully about the situation, and then join me (and tru1cy) in killing  Remus West 
 


and if he turns up a furball, as you say, then we should kill Lassr next. Can you see it?

wrong.

I suspected all along that you were not actually the seer and were testing Newcastle to see if he was telling the truth. If you continued to cling to the seer role and then provided scans then I could see testing Newcastle. If he was a villager then we lynch Remus then you or vice versa.

 Remus West 
 

Yes, you were quite steadfast in your belief that he was faking.

Now that you admit that you are a villager then it just means that this could have been a ploy just to make you look good after we lynch Remus.

But making sure we don't forget we have to lynch Grund before this is all over.


And that catches me up.

[stessier]

In case people don't read through those big long posts:

I forgot about this. Newcastle pretty much indicated that tru1cy was his scan by asking Remus and I to remove our votes so no villager dies today. Semaj is still not sure but tru1cy feels validated.

told everyone I was a villager

tru1cy has to be a Villager. We had no proof whether or not Newcastle was the real Seer, but tru1cy knew right away that he was read correctly.

So I won't be voting for tru1cy.

Grund - I'm going to be voting for you today, so I'd like you to reconsider Lassr and Semaj for me.

Lassr

• Would never have voted for Unagi
• Was focusing wolf hunt on the No Votes for Bubbles group on Day 2
• Agreed with Remus that Lagom looked like Seer
• Instantly knew you were faking
• Was very happy when you named him human

Semaj

• Doesn't know who's playing
• Think Unagi kill was a "bad move"
• Does a phenomenal job of getting himself lynched - except this game
• Wanted to lynch Remus after you claimed Seer
• Doesn't want the wolves to know his lynch targets - so just repeats them every other page instead of every other post
• Made that amazing post after you named him a wolf
• Is sure the Village loses if we lynch him

Do you still think Semaj is the wolfiest?

[Grundbegriff]

I forgot about this. Newcastle pretty much indicated that tru1cy was his scan by asking Remus and I to remove our votes so no villager dies today. Semaj is still not sure but tru1cy feels validated.

told everyone I was a villager

tru1cy has to be a Villager. We had no proof whether or not Newcastle was the real Seer, but tru1cy knew right away that he was read correctly.

That is an excellent point. I'll venture to say that tru1cy is definitely human in light of that detail. Of course, Newcastle didn't scan tru1cy; he scanned Lagom Lite. But tru1cy had no way to know that, and it did look as if Newc was about to exonerate tru1cy.

Wolf is one of {Lassr, Semaj, stessier}

Grund - how did you miss that?

Not as OCD as you?

[Grundbegriff]

Grund being could be a ruse to get us to lynch a innocent

Grund being what?

Keep catching up

What do you mean? I caught up and never saw what you meant.

There is a 3. I can see the WWs gambling on the villagers being antsy about Grund being alive and use him as red herring. A wasted lynch gets them one step closer to winning

Oh yeah, can't imagine why I didn't make that connection.

I think what he was saying there is that my actual existence is inherently a ruse.

[Grundbegriff]

Even so, I think Lassr is human for a separate reason: the way he rode Remus after the revelation that Unagi had been killed. It's not just that he took on Remus; Remus's partner might well do that. But what persuades me is the way Lassr did this: he appealed to his growing sense of Bubbles's guilt --a sense I shared-- and he pointed out that Remus lacked that sense. Then Lassr called a lot of attention to the prospect that Remus had framed himself. On the whole, Remus wasn't garnering much attention at that point, and it would've been prudent for a Remus-partner to coast. But Lassr mounted a genuine and persuasive argument-- persuasive enough, it seems, that Newcastle decided to scan Remus in light of Unagi's plea and Lassr's analysis of it.

Newcastle said he scanned Remus because he thought he was good.

actually i picked you to scan, simply because if good, i could build a nice block of good guys...you should actually be pleased about that....i was surprised as hell that you came back wolfy to be honest. seriously surprised. Knowing i had you, i had to make some fast calculations and deductions and thought your likely partner was...and well here we are.

I'm not saying you are wrong, just that not everyone saw it that way.

That's a good point, too. Apparently Newcastle wasn't persuaded against Remus by Lassr's probing of him immediately after Kraegor revealed Unagi's death. My impression on reading Lassr v. Remus at that point is that Lassr was pushing rather hard at a time when a Wolf wouldn't have needed (or wanted) to do that to his partner.

Perhaps you could reread that section too, stessier, and see whether Lassr's response strikes you as human: starting here.

Of course, my initial reaction to Lassr was that he had voted unusually early (when he normally waits and watches) and that he had then done a 180 and joined the vote of the person he had been accusing, and that that was odd. What pulled me away from that problem was my revisiting the passage linked immediately above. So if that passage is disqualified as not humanesque, then I'm left with my original creeped out intuition about Lassr's voting pattern.

How many posts are on a search page? 40? Do you really find that to be a lot for Semaj? I actually thought he had been quieter than normal.

I think it's that the individual posts are longer than usual, and that more of them go through the motions of being "helpful". These characteristics make the overall list seem longer, I guess. Plus, we usually kill him on the second day or so.

If I'm right about Semaj, and if there's a consensus that he's the other Wolf, we can win outright just by killing him. But if discussion reveals significant disagreement among us, then I counsel that you kill me after the discussion in order to prevent scenario P (above) from unfolding.

You start by saying the best way to wolfy victory is keeping you alive and end by asking us to consider lynching Semaj?

No. I start by saying that short of killing a wolf today, the best move is to prevent them from exploiting my aura tomorrow. And then I end by saying that short of killing the wolf today, you should kill me.

Feel the match?

Because after re-reading with the knowledge that Remus was a wolf, I'm much less sure about my read on you. The quote that really bugs me is when you said that if you were a wolf, killing Unagi is something you would do.

I'm. I'm. I'm just being honest. I'm just being honest.

Unagi's death there is so not what I expected, and Remus was one of the ones in on it? I could see you being the one to convince him of it, and its bugging me.

Don't be distracted from the task at hand.

[Grundbegriff]

So I won't be voting for tru1cy.

Grund - I'm going to be voting for you today, so I'd like you to reconsider Lassr and Semaj for me.

Why? Are you that sure that you're going to be alive tomorrow and positioned to make the final choice?

Or are you just being a Boy Scout?

Let's take it as given that tru1cy is human. That means that there are three scenarios at hand:

(a) we actually hit the Wolf today in the group {Lassr, Semaj, stessier}
(b) we kill me today, and (given his uncontestable humanity) the Wolf kills tru1cy tonight. Left standing are {Lassr, Semaj, stessier}
(c) we kill one of {Lassr, Semaj, stessier} today thinking he's a wolf and miss. The Wolf kills tru1cy tonight. Left standing are {Grundbegriff} and two of {Lassr, Semaj, stessier}. The Wolf in that set manipulates the human in that set to vote against me, and we lose.

First off, it looks as if there's a strong chance that tru1cy will die tonight if the game continues to tonight. In other words, the guy who faces the final Lady | Tiger choice tomorrow will have learned nothing by the night death. tru1cy is as good as confirmed by the way he responded to Newcastle's first gesture at self-revelation. So we now know as much today as the final pair will know tomorrow.

Second, we're trying to set up circumstance (b) since (a) is hard and (c) is unacceptable.

The key issue is this: if (a) is hard, won't (b) be even harder? How can we make it simpler today. After all, as noted, we're not going to learn anything else.

Notes:
* Lassr ain't sayin' much.
* Semaj's defensive, but Semaj's always defensive.
* stessier has learned that I consider the busy-bee-works-the-petals a sign of humanness, and so he has redoubled his effort to draw inferences from the material.

Does anyone find any of these three factors noteworthy?

[Semaj]

Yeah...

So what, we vote lassr today for fun? if tru1cy dies tonight, its me, Grund and Stessier for arguably the most confusing and difficult final round in history?

Grund will say one of the other two is the wolf, Stess and I will say the same... at which point we'll all decide to never vote and end in a draw when we all die from time, lol

At this point, I'd really like to thank you for screwing up my test case by proclaiming tru1cy as an innocent. He becomes the prime target for a lynch tonight.

[Grundbegriff]

At this point, I'd really like to thank you for screwing up my test case by proclaiming tru1cy as an innocent. He becomes the prime target for a lynch tonight.

What test case?

[Lassr]

* Lassr ain't sayin' much.

a lot of other stuff going on right now but I've stated that I'm ready to lynch you and see what happens.

If you are innocent then we've got some info here to work with and we'll let it come down to the final day.

[Semaj]

At this point, I'd really like to thank you for screwing up my test case by proclaiming tru1cy as an innocent. He becomes the prime target for a lynch tonight.

What test case?

Think about it... it's a moot point... but clearly there was a method to my movements.

[stessier]

That's a good point, too. Apparently Newcastle wasn't persuaded against Remus by Lassr's probing of him immediately after Kraegor revealed Unagi's death. My impression on reading Lassr v. Remus at that point is that Lassr was pushing rather hard at a time when a Wolf wouldn't have needed (or wanted) to do that to his partner.

Perhaps you could reread that section too, stessier, and see whether Lassr's response strikes you as human: starting here.

Of course, my initial reaction to Lassr was that he had voted unusually early (when he normally waits and watches) and that he had then done a 180 and joined the vote of the person he had been accusing, and that that was odd. What pulled me away from that problem was my revisiting the passage linked immediately above. So if that passage is disqualified as not humanesque, then I'm left with my original creeped out intuition about Lassr's voting pattern.

I re-read it a few times.

Here's the thing - I think you are going to get lynched today. I think tru1cy is human. That means for tomorrow and that passage to matter at all, the wolf is either Lassr or Semaj. If you read at the starting point you indicated on page 7 and go to the end of page 8, both comment meaning one was putting on a show. Which one?

If you read it with Human Lassr in mind, it works. Lassr pushes hard on Remus and then starts to defend himself when you name him a wolf. Remus moves on as you name him Unlikely to be Wolfy (well done, by the way! ).

Of course, if you read it with Wolfy Lassr in mind, it also works. He pushes hard on Remus. Remus tries to explain himself. You name Lassr a wolf. Lassr moves to his defense and Remus drops it and moves on.

And then there is Semaj.

The move is good if Unagi got scanned, otherwise it's a bad move, period.

My guess is it was used as misdirection to make certain people look guiltier than others.

I dont have any real suspects yet today, but until fridayish, I wont be able to really sit down, reread day one and see if I can find any breadcrumbs. I might be able to get it done now, but I should probably run errands before I do it... sucks to be me, lol.


Thoughts in nor particular order.

I've covered why I thin Unagi was a bad play... my guess is they were trying to eliminate potential seer scans or set someone else up. We could look at Who Unagi thought was evil besides bubbles and see if he hit a nerve, but I wouldn't count that for much ATM (at the moment, not arse to mouth). Then again, they could have done it to cause confusion and bewilderment about the choice.

Grunds quietness isnt good, but if he has a legitimate reason I wont lynch him yet, he's a day 3er..ish.

I am always a fan of the one on, one off mentality for wolf voting on day one. There isnt enough people to merit all the votes off, but it could have happened. I dont know if they would put both on... it's going to link them in some way. But who knows, maybe they wanted him the hell gone. Barring them being bad wolves, I wouldnt assume that route yet tho.

I will wait for Newcastle to analyse "Why Unagi" and save me the trouble. I also will be holding off on my vote until grund resurfaces.

I'll post some kind of threat matrix later... There is no rush... Unless the seer comes out with 2 wolf scans we got some talking to do today.

Unspecific support of killing Unagi to make others looks bad. Mention that one vote on Bubbles, on off Bubbles is most likely. Mention of the Seer having 2 wolf scans after the first night to bolster his "I don't pay attention" street cred.

And then a bit later (http://new.octopusoverlords.com/forum/v ... 6#p1486646" target="_blank), he says that there could be 1 in either pile and chooses to start looking through the Not for Bubbles vote. Technically, both piles had equal unknowns for him so it shouldn't matter where he started...except Remus was in his pile.

I would say that looks bad for him except Lassr does the exact same thing in the very next post. Lassr makes the point, though, that Newcastle and tru1cy are his highest suspects that just happen to be in the No Bubbles pool.

Lassr and Semaj can't both be wolves, so it shows that the choice can be made by a human...which helps not at all.

Why? Are you that sure that you're going to be alive tomorrow and positioned to make the final choice?
Or are you just being a Boy Scout?

Only made it through Webelos, but yes. Why else would any of this matter?

[stessier]

At this point, I'd really like to thank you for screwing up my test case by proclaiming tru1cy as an innocent. He becomes the prime target for a lynch tonight.

What test case?

Think about it... it's a moot point... but clearly there was a method to my movements.

I hated this when pr0ner did it last game too.

Assume I am an idiot and explain your genius, please.

[Grundbegriff]

At this point, I'd really like to thank you for screwing up my test case by proclaiming tru1cy as an innocent. He becomes the prime target for a lynch tonight.

What test case?

Think about it... it's a moot point... but clearly there was a method to my movements.

I'm not seeing it.

I know the kind of thing that might've been put forward as a test. But I don't see you having put it forward.

[Lassr]

At this point, I'd really like to thank you for screwing up my test case by proclaiming tru1cy as an innocent. He becomes the prime target for a lynch tonight.

What test case?

Think about it... it's a moot point... but clearly there was a method to my movements.

I'm not seeing it.

I know the kind of thing that might've been put forward as a test. But I don't see you having put it forward.

Not sure what he's talking about either.

[Grundbegriff]

Think about it... it's a moot point... but clearly there was a method to my movements.

Assume I am an idiot and explain your genius, please.

[MichaelScott](((audio)))[/MichaelScott]

[Semaj]

Well... Since no one wants to think...

If you say 1 person is good and two people need to die... for 3 straight days... and the last day is the good person and someone who needs to die, who would you actually vote for?

[Grundbegriff]

Well... Since no one wants to think...

If you say 1 person is good and two people need to die... for 3 straight days... and the last day is the good person and someone who needs to die, who would you actually vote for?

That would depend on (a) how confident you are that you've correctly classified the "good" person and (b) whether you're a Wolf.

[Lassr]

So how are we voting today?

I plan to vote Grund today. Anybody else have a better idea?

[Semaj]

Well... Since no one wants to think...

If you say 1 person is good and two people need to die... for 3 straight days... and the last day is the good person and someone who needs to die, who would you actually vote for?

That would depend on (a) how confident you are that you've correctly classified the "good" person and (b) whether you're a Wolf.

sometimes, I just love how you refuse to look and just throw the word wolf out there for funziez.

Unless someone paints me as a wolf, which you did, and I was confident I am a villager, which I am, then who in their right mind would put me who wanted them dead for 3 straight days in against someone I have no intention of voting for.

[Semaj]

So how are we voting today?

I plan to vote Grund today. Anybody else have a better idea?

I cant forsee how it ends well if we dont vote grund. I mean if you think someone else is more wofly and like grunds chances of not being a wolf, feel free to vote elsewhere. But like you both have said, no one can possibly trust grund when its down to the final 3, too many people get burned that way.

[Grundbegriff]

So how are we voting today?
I plan to vote Grund today. Anybody else have a better idea?

Despite the fact that I advocate this-- or perhaps because of it-- I'm taken with how easily some folks make that choice.

[Lassr]

So how are we voting today?
I plan to vote Grund today. Anybody else have a better idea?

Despite the fact that I advocate this-- or perhaps because of it-- I'm taken with how easily some folks make that choice.

if anything, it is a compliment to you. If you live to tomorrow I fear, if you are a wolf, you will be able to manipulate the vote and win. I for one have learned my lesson though.

[Semaj]

was that the game me and grund were both wolves, anyone with spoilers expected us to lose and we won?

[stessier]

was that the game me and grund were both wolves, anyone with spoilers expected us to lose and we won?

That was the Simple Werewolf game I ran, wasn't it? You and Grund couldn't talk and you died rather quickly letting Grund soldier on alone. Yeah, that's one of the reasons I'm voting for Grund today. Grund - remember when you quoted Lassr and said "I thought so too" because he parroted your reasoning for offing your nightime snack? It was high comedy at the time. Now it gives me the willies.

Anyway, I've run out of stuff. Unless anyone else has anything to add, I'm ready to vote.

[Lassr]

 Grundbegriff 
 

[Lassr]

was that the game me and grund were both wolves, anyone with spoilers expected us to lose and we won?

That was the Simple Werewolf game I ran, wasn't it? You and Grund couldn't talk and you died rather quickly letting Grund soldier on alone. Yeah, that's one of the reasons I'm voting for Grund today. Grund - remember when you quoted Lassr and said "I thought so too" because he parroted your reasoning for offing your nightime snack? It was high comedy at the time. Now it gives me the willies.

Anyway, I've run out of stuff. Unless anyone else has anything to add, I'm ready to vote.

and Grund led the charge to kill semaj and that's what saved Grund (then I find out that Grund didn't even know semaj was his partner at the time). I think was semaj knew Grund was a wolf but Grund didn't know semaj was a wolf.

[Semaj]

was that the game me and grund were both wolves, anyone with spoilers expected us to lose and we won?

That was the Simple Werewolf game I ran, wasn't it? You and Grund couldn't talk and you died rather quickly letting Grund soldier on alone. Yeah, that's one of the reasons I'm voting for Grund today. Grund - remember when you quoted Lassr and said "I thought so too" because he parroted your reasoning for offing your nightime snack? It was high comedy at the time. Now it gives me the willies.

Anyway, I've run out of stuff. Unless anyone else has anything to add, I'm ready to vote.

Well... sorta... I think I went after grund tooth and nail when I knew my time was upcoming trying to give him as much to work with as possible.

I am fairly positive we knew who the other wolf was, but were not allowed to talk.

[Grundbegriff]

So how are we voting today?
I plan to vote Grund today. Anybody else have a better idea?

Despite the fact that I advocate this-- or perhaps because of it-- I'm taken with how easily some folks make that choice.

if anything, it is a compliment to you. If you live to tomorrow I fear, if you are a wolf, you will be able to manipulate the vote and win. I for one have learned my lesson though.

I just have this troubling feeling that you're hiding behind that excuse. You've said "I've been burned before" and the equivalent a few too many times for my liking.

In any event, let's do this. Good luck to the pair o' humans who survive till tomorrow.

(Memories: I recall a game in which we were allowed to PM and in which I persuaded Lassr to join me in an alliance of sorts. I think that was the first time I deceived him badly. Which game was that?)

[Lassr]

(Memories: I recall a game in which we were allowed to PM and in which I persuaded Lassr to join me in an alliance of sorts. I think that was the first time I deceived him badly. Which game was that?)

I remember the one where I pm'ed Austin (he was a wolf) and you were the other wolf. Then the last game that we were just talking about where I kept saying I would vote for you the last day but all along I thought Chaos was the other wolf and when I lived through the night that cemented in my mind that it was Chaos. There could have been another somewhere in there but I may have mentally blocked it out...