Star Wars WW - Game Over - Rebel Victory

[theohall]

We also clear the water on who R2 was a bit here. R2 cannot use his 3-vote power without an Imperial vote placed against him. Once my death reveals that I truly am Empire, you'll see that the only other players with votes against them were:

Unagi (on the Scoop train at N-1), seems seemly to a great degree
Semaj (on the Scooop train to N-2 leading to Scoop's "outing") alibi almost airtight
Triggercut (guilty seeming as all hell, but Empire.)
Chaos (Empire-ness proven, sadly.)
tru1cy
Scoop

One small flaw with this analysis:

R2D2: Can adjust the Imperial computers by adding 3 lynch votes to one player one time during the game. This vote, once cast cannot be changed. There must be at least one non Rebel vote on a player[/u] for this to succeed and there has to be at least 7 players left in the game. Players will not be notified the extra votes have been placed. This use will not reveal R2D2’s identity.

Note: it says one NON-rebel vote on a player, not one non-rebel vote on R2D2.

[theohall]

Yes, I went back and read the R2 rules after reading trig's analysis post, because what trig wrote didn't sound right.

[triggercut]

Ah, ok. I was transposing a bit of the Chewie rules (he can't attack without having a vote on *him*) but R2 can act if there's an Imperial vote on any of his teammates.

Still, I think the analysis stands. R2 knew he was unlikely to get any other chances to use his power.

I suppose I can see a case where the revelation of CR's seerness made him seem like a live target too, though.

[LordMortis]

Waiting for a shot to go off (or two or three...) before I go voting for scoop. Or perhaps waiting for no shot to go off before voting for scoop90210. Will wait for tomorrow to revisit the future.

[Qantaga]

Thankfully, we have a lot of data to work with today. Now, we need to roll up our sleeves and find out what the data is telling us.

It looks like our four big tasks today are:

1. What do we do with Scoop?

He's our known Rebel, but do we want to lynch him or shoot/strangle him (if we have those methods at our disposal)? I see that trig and Remus have concluded that Scoop is R2. I'm leaning more in Lassr's direction, that it's not necessarily true that Scoop is R2. As Lassr says, R2 may have acted impulsively. As stessier pointed out, it happened in a 5 minute window after Chaos revealed and trig removed his vote, but before El Guapo removed his vote. My initial impression is that I think it is possible that Chaos was killed because of his reveal as Emperor/Seer (meaning any R2 might have thought it worth killing Chaos and not just a Scoop/R2 afraid of not being able to use his power). I think this warrants discussion, because it will ultimately help us decide what to do with our known Rebel.

2. Do Scoop's posts and actions point to any of his rebellious cohorts?

3. What do we make of trig's claim and analysis?

4. What does stessier's death tell us?

[triggercut]

Trig I don't know if you are Count Dooku or not, but you are wrong about me. If that's the best you have then clearly the Sith and the Empire are in trouble. if there is a Vader hopefully he can redeem your order

19 players remain in the game.

1 of these players is a known Rebel.

10 of these players (I exclude myself here) can be said to, at least on Day 1, be Empire players.

1 of these players has Empire blood all over his hands, but claims an Empire role (me).

That leaves a pool of 7 players, of which 4 or 5 are likely to be Rebels.

1 player in that second pool at least was in the train for Scoop to go to N-1.

6 players remaining in that pool--which includes you, tru1cy--appear very rebellious.

[Lassr]

4. What does stessier's death tell us?

They did not have a scan before his death. He was not on many if any "watch" lists. Scoop tried to tie him and me together with my vote follow on after his vote. With Scoop now id'ed as rebel maybe they thought it would put stessier in an even better light and chose to eliminate him, not me because I do appear on a few possible evil lists.

[triggercut]

1. What do we do with Scoop?

Spindle, fold, and mutilate. As others have stated, a vote train on Scoop probably tells us nothing. Unless someone can make a good case that a vote train for a player 99.9% certain to be a badguy gives us anything but junk data, I think that's the best approach. Willing to admit that my tendency to binary thinking on this may have me missing something obvious in this.

He's our known Rebel, but do we want to lynch him or shoot/strangle him (if we have those methods at our disposal)? I see that trig and Remus have concluded that Scoop is R2. I'm leaning more in Lassr's direction, that it's not necessarily true that Scoop is R2. As Lassr says, R2 may have acted impulsively. As stessier pointed out, it happened in a 5 minute window after Chaos revealed and trig removed his vote, but before El Guapo removed his vote. My initial impression is that I think it is possible that Chaos was killed because of his reveal as Emperor/Seer (meaning any R2 might have thought it worth killing Chaos and not just a Scoop/R2 afraid of not being able to use his power). I think this warrants discussion, because it will ultimately help us decide what to do with our known Rebel.

Good point. Chaos was a high-value target for the Rebels but even if Scoop wasn't R2, how does that affect our decision on disposing of him?

I'll leave the other two for now, but:

4. What does stessier's death tell us?

An engaged stessier on the other team is a dangerous player indeed. Beyond that, I don't know.

[Lassr]

Trig I don't know if you are Count Dooku or not, but you are wrong about me. If that's the best you have then clearly the Sith and the Empire are in trouble. if there is a Vader hopefully he can redeem your order

this puzzles me. Why are we in trouble? triggercut made a list of suspects and you were included on it. Are we in trouble because of just your name on it? You are 1 of many. How do you know which of the others are rebel or Empire? maybe triggercut hit 5 and missed on you. That was an odd statement.
Made it sound like you know the makeup of your team...

[coopasonic]

4. What does stessier's death tell us?

That the reb's are loving the confusion we are wallowing in right now. I went through all of stessier's posts on this thread and he didn't show any signs of knowing anything that would get him killed. I think they killed him for just that reason. He hasn't self-incriminated and he hasn't pointed the finger at anyone else so there nothing to be read into his death.

They appear to like the way all the attention is focusing on trig and the lists of suspects that have been raised so far and don't want to interfere with that.

I'll do a little playing around of my own with the vote analysis, but so far it seems like we have done a geat job of digging our own grave (yes, I appear to have been using an excavator) and the rebels are enjoying it from the sidelines.

[triggercut]

4. What does stessier's death tell us?

They did not have a scan before his death. He was not on many if any "watch" lists. Scoop tried to tie him and me together with my vote follow on after his vote. With Scoop now id'ed as rebel maybe they thought it would put stessier in an even better light and chose to eliminate him, not me because I do appear on a few possible evil lists.

This, too.

They had to kill someone from the Scoop to N-1 and Scoop to N-2 trains, and preferably one of the smaller subsets of players who were on both and who thus were obviously Empire. Had they killed someone who was not one of the list of ten I put up, that *really* narrows the field in which the Rebels can hide.

Due to his absence, he wasn't present for a lot of Day 1. They may have deemed other, more active players like Grund, Unagi, or Remus to be more engaged on Day 1, and hence more likely to maybe be protected. I don't know. Perhaps at that point they had to choose between Lassr, pr0ner, coopasonic, and stessier--all excellent players, but seemingly (I could be wrong) less active than those other three and thus less likely to have received protection on Night 1.

[triggercut]

They appear to like the way all the attention is focusing on trig and the lists of suspects that have been raised so far and don't want to interfere with that.

I disagree. I think they are reasonably confident that they can get my teammates to off me today...but I invite any Empire player to find any fault in my morning analysis of votes and what they mean.

We're not flying blind at all right now. In fact, I think we have a very good chance at winning the game and am frankly kind of surprised to see a teammate expressing so much confusion and uncertainty.

[coopasonic]

They appear to like the way all the attention is focusing on trig and the lists of suspects that have been raised so far and don't want to interfere with that.

I disagree. I think they are reasonably confident that they can get my teammates to off me today...

Up to this point, it sure feel like you agree with me. I'm talking about why they offed stess, which wouldn't consider the analysis you presented after that.

As to the rest I'm a pessimist by nature. Being seerless, down 2 already and our hidden vote revealed doesn't feel very good. If we can get scoop + 1 today I'll feel 100% better. If you target is as golden as it seems, then maybe we are in good shape, but I want to see 1 thing go our way before getting too excited.

[coopasonic]

If you target is as golden as it seems, then maybe we are in good shape, but I want to see 1 thing go our way before getting too excited.

My keyboard is not cooperating this morning. That should be "If your target list is as golden as it seems..."

[triggercut]

The only flaws in the list of trusted and targets is the potential turning of Mara Jade, if he/she is present in the game.

[coopasonic]

The only flaws in the list of trusted and targets is the potential turning of Mara Jade, if he/she is present in the game.

This raises a question. Victory conditions aren't spelled out anywhere. Should I just know?

[tru1cy]

 scoop 
 

[LordMortis]

4. What does stessier's death tell us?

That the reb's are loving the confusion we are wallowing in right now. I went through all of stessier's posts on this thread and he didn't show any signs of knowing anything that would get him killed. I think they killed him for just that reason. He hasn't self-incriminated and he hasn't pointed the finger at anyone else so there nothing to be read into his death.

They appear to like the way all the attention is focusing on trig and the lists of suspects that have been raised so far and don't want to interfere with that.

I'll do a little playing around of my own with the vote analysis, but so far it seems like we have done a geat job of digging our own grave (yes, I appear to have been using an excavator) and the rebels are enjoying it from the sidelines.

If last game is any indication, we had 7 people who refused to join in on day one. Of the 7, 6 were special good guys and one was the berzerker bad guy. Now if you are a bad guy, you know the low participating good guys are and you are looking for specials. But that's just my speculation based on the last game which surprised the hell out of me and things change.

The only flaws in the list of trusted and targets is the potential turning of Mara Jade, if he/she is present in the game.

This raises a question. Victory conditions aren't spelled out anywhere. Should I just know?

Standard victory conditions are that the wolves win if at any point they equal humans. So if we presume 7 living wolves right now then they win when the total population is 14. If there are 8 then they win when there's 16. If they convert mara they'd win at 16 (or 18 if there are 8). That's why the overvote could be so powerful and in a way we should be thankful R2 got out of the way on day one, though it really sucks that he's out of the way by killing what we assume is the emperor. With 19 left, technically the right circumstances and 8 rebels having converted a potential mara, we could see a rebel win with a vote on a possible chewie today before we even kill scoop. I'm rather inclined to doubt 8 rebels, though. However, that circumstance should let us know exactly how much it sucks to empire. More good news though with R2 in the chance for chewie, yoda, and luke being in the game all go down.

[coopasonic]

Players who I'd bet know all the best places to get a burger on Alderaan
Scoop (likely R2D2)
tru1cy
RMC
Isgrimnur
Newcastle
Mr. Bubbles

My rank ordering of this list:
Scoop (duh)
tru1cy
Isgrimnur
RMC
Mr Bubbles
Newcastle

Grund's accuse on tru1cy feels reasonable to me now (sorry Grund).
Isgrimnur found a reason to vote for trig and left it there when it was really poor justification
RMC and Mr Bubbles are very quiet so I don't have much there.
Newcastle was making sense to me over day 1... and based on the things he said, if he is rebel it implicates me (hint: I'm not rebel)

[theohall]

Ah, ok. I was transposing a bit of the Chewie rules (he can't attack without having a vote on *him*) but R2 can act if there's an Imperial vote on any of his teammates.

Still, I think the analysis stands. R2 knew he was unlikely to get any other chances to use his power.

I suppose I can see a case where the revelation of CR's seerness made him seem like a live target too, though.

That is still wrong. It's an Imperial vote on ANY player - not just rebel players. Why do you keep mis-reading that?

[Mr Bubbles]

Sorry for absence. Still home sick, but awake enough to soak all these last quick 15 pages or so
Will be reading through everything today and will catch myself back up now that day 2 is in action.

[tru1cy]

Voting off one the Emperor's loyal son will be helping the rebel cause. I will not be moving my vote or trying to actively dissuade this ramble. I've learned a vigorous defense will only get you lynched. The Empire's justice is swift but merciful.

[triggercut]

Ah, ok. I was transposing a bit of the Chewie rules (he can't attack without having a vote on *him*) but R2 can act if there's an Imperial vote on any of his teammates.

Still, I think the analysis stands. R2 knew he was unlikely to get any other chances to use his power.

I suppose I can see a case where the revelation of CR's seerness made him seem like a live target too, though.

That is still wrong. It's an Imperial vote on ANY player - not just rebel players. Why do you keep mis-reading that?

Because it is an absurd conditional as a gameplay mechanic.

Perhaps for flavor texture...ok, whatever.

But gosh, what are the odds that at some point in a turn an Imperial player might put a vote down on someone?

I mean...really?

[Unagi]

I clearly need to ask the obvious question.

Triggercut,

1. How do we know that you aren't Yoda.
2. Is this why you were, earlier, trying to point out how Yoda isn't likely in the game?


I just never saw Dooku as a provable player - and yet, it seems you do.

(we are all provable upon death)

[Unagi]

Ah, ok. I was transposing a bit of the Chewie rules (he can't attack without having a vote on *him*) but R2 can act if there's an Imperial vote on any of his teammates.

Still, I think the analysis stands. R2 knew he was unlikely to get any other chances to use his power.

I suppose I can see a case where the revelation of CR's seerness made him seem like a live target too, though.

That is still wrong. It's an Imperial vote on ANY player - not just rebel players. Why do you keep mis-reading that?

Because it is an absurd conditional as a gameplay mechanic.

Perhaps for flavor texture...ok, whatever.

But gosh, what are the odds that at some point in a turn an Imperial player might put a vote down on someone?

I mean...really?

R2D2: Can adjust the Imperial computers by adding 3 lynch votes to one player one time during the game. This vote, once cast cannot be changed. There must be at least one non Rebel vote on a player for this to succeed and there has to be at least 7 players left in the game. Players will not be notified the extra votes have been placed. This use will not reveal R2D2’s identity.

I assume this means that if R2D2 wants to OVER VOTE on Bakhtosh, then Bakhtosh must at least have One Imperial Vote on him already. (in other words, an Imperial Must Help R2D2 Over-vote someone)


It's not just "any old player" - it's the player that R2D2 is targeting.

(this is my highly likely to be totally correct opinion)

[triggercut]

I clearly need to ask the obvious question.

Triggercut,

1. How do we know that you aren't Yoda.
2. Is this why you were, earlier, trying to point out how Yoda isn't likely in the game?


I just never saw Dooku as a provable player - and yet, it seems you do.

(we are all provable upon death)

No ironclad proof whatsoever.

The only circumstantial proof is what I offered before: I showed two times where I did calculations where I speculated that Yoda might or might not be in play, but neglected to mention anything about Dooku's similar role and/or whether he was in play...suggesting strongly that I possessed a knowledge of exactly what Dooku was or was not doing with his special power.

[Lassr]

I clearly need to ask the obvious question.

Triggercut,

1. How do we know that you aren't Yoda.

we don't, the question is if he is Dooku, how long will the rebels allow him to live? And at what point must we take him out because he cannot survive to the end game now. He dies by our hand or the rebels.

[Unagi]

Sorry for absence. Still home sick, but awake enough to soak all these last quick 15 pages or so
Will be reading through everything today and will catch myself back up now that day 2 is in action.

(I do seriously hope you are feeling OK, and/or getting better)


Hey Hey! Congrats for becoming an "End Game Problem" for everyone.

[triggercut]

Ah, ok. I was transposing a bit of the Chewie rules (he can't attack without having a vote on *him*) but R2 can act if there's an Imperial vote on any of his teammates.

Still, I think the analysis stands. R2 knew he was unlikely to get any other chances to use his power.

I suppose I can see a case where the revelation of CR's seerness made him seem like a live target too, though.

That is still wrong. It's an Imperial vote on ANY player - not just rebel players. Why do you keep mis-reading that?

Because it is an absurd conditional as a gameplay mechanic.

Perhaps for flavor texture...ok, whatever.

But gosh, what are the odds that at some point in a turn an Imperial player might put a vote down on someone?

I mean...really?

R2D2: Can adjust the Imperial computers by adding 3 lynch votes to one player one time during the game. This vote, once cast cannot be changed. There must be at least one non Rebel vote on a player for this to succeed and there has to be at least 7 players left in the game. Players will not be notified the extra votes have been placed. This use will not reveal R2D2’s identity.

I assume this means that if R2D2 wants to OVER VOTE on Bakhtosh, then Bakhtosh must at least have One Imperial Vote on him already. (in other words, an Imperial Must Help R2D2 Over-vote someone)


It's not just "any old player" - it's the player that R2D2 is targeting.

(this is my highly likely to be totally correct opinion)

Your reading makes more sense, but theohall's interpretation ("If an Imperial player casts a vote") seems to be literally correct.

Theohall's interpretation is not a "condition" for activating the power at all. "If an imperial player uses the letter 'e' in a thread post, then Player X can use power Y." Just seems like it wouldn't need to be conditional at all.

[Unagi]

I clearly need to ask the obvious question.

Triggercut,

1. How do we know that you aren't Yoda.

we don't, the question is if he is Dooku, how long will the rebels allow him to live? And at what point must we take him out because he cannot survive to the end game now. He dies by our hand or the rebels.

Yeah, but triggercut came blowing hard into this day with "Let me prove you so wrong, before you lynch me".

Why on earth wasn't he killed over night. Am I the only one that thought he was going to start this day with a shot or a choke?

[triggercut]

BTW--of the list of 7 players who were never on a Scoop Train, to me tru1cy doesn't seem like the best first target for a lynch vote. His playing is very much in line with how I remember him playing when he is an unpowered goodguy.

Perhaps he has me snowed, but I'd say that some of the other targets on that list are worth testing first.

[Lassr]

Ah, ok. I was transposing a bit of the Chewie rules (he can't attack without having a vote on *him*) but R2 can act if there's an Imperial vote on any of his teammates.

Still, I think the analysis stands. R2 knew he was unlikely to get any other chances to use his power.

I suppose I can see a case where the revelation of CR's seerness made him seem like a live target too, though.

That is still wrong. It's an Imperial vote on ANY player - not just rebel players. Why do you keep mis-reading that?

Because it is an absurd conditional as a gameplay mechanic.

Perhaps for flavor texture...ok, whatever.

But gosh, what are the odds that at some point in a turn an Imperial player might put a vote down on someone?

I mean...really?

R2D2: Can adjust the Imperial computers by adding 3 lynch votes to one player one time during the game. This vote, once cast cannot be changed. There must be at least one non Rebel vote on a player for this to succeed and there has to be at least 7 players left in the game. Players will not be notified the extra votes have been placed. This use will not reveal R2D2’s identity.

I assume this means that if R2D2 wants to OVER VOTE on Bakhtosh, then Bakhtosh must at least have One Imperial Vote on him already. (in other words, an Imperial Must Help R2D2 Over-vote someone)


It's not just "any old player" - it's the player that R2D2 is targeting.

(this is my highly likely to be totally correct opinion)

BB2112! Clarification please!

[bb2112]

Ah, ok. I was transposing a bit of the Chewie rules (he can't attack without having a vote on *him*) but R2 can act if there's an Imperial vote on any of his teammates.

Still, I think the analysis stands. R2 knew he was unlikely to get any other chances to use his power.

I suppose I can see a case where the revelation of CR's seerness made him seem like a live target too, though.

That is still wrong. It's an Imperial vote on ANY player - not just rebel players. Why do you keep mis-reading that?

Sorry, this may be an instance where rushing to get the game out I was not as clear as I could have been.

In order for R2D2 to use his power, there has to be at least one Imperial vote on the intended victim.

[Unagi]

Ah, ok. I was transposing a bit of the Chewie rules (he can't attack without having a vote on *him*) but R2 can act if there's an Imperial vote on any of his teammates.

Still, I think the analysis stands. R2 knew he was unlikely to get any other chances to use his power.

I suppose I can see a case where the revelation of CR's seerness made him seem like a live target too, though.

That is still wrong. It's an Imperial vote on ANY player - not just rebel players. Why do you keep mis-reading that?

Because it is an absurd conditional as a gameplay mechanic.

Perhaps for flavor texture...ok, whatever.

But gosh, what are the odds that at some point in a turn an Imperial player might put a vote down on someone?

I mean...really?

R2D2: Can adjust the Imperial computers by adding 3 lynch votes to one player one time during the game. This vote, once cast cannot be changed. There must be at least one non Rebel vote on a player for this to succeed and there has to be at least 7 players left in the game. Players will not be notified the extra votes have been placed. This use will not reveal R2D2’s identity.

I assume this means that if R2D2 wants to OVER VOTE on Bakhtosh, then Bakhtosh must at least have One Imperial Vote on him already. (in other words, an Imperial Must Help R2D2 Over-vote someone)


It's not just "any old player" - it's the player that R2D2 is targeting.

(this is my highly likely to be totally correct opinion)

Your reading makes more sense, but theohall's interpretation ("If an Imperial player casts a vote") seems to be literally correct.

Theohall's interpretation is not a "condition" for activating the power at all. "If an imperial player uses the letter 'e' in a thread post, then Player X can use power Y." Just seems like it wouldn't need to be conditional at all.

FIXED:

R2D2: Can adjust the Imperial computers by adding 3 lynch votes to one player one time during the game. This vote, once cast cannot be changed. There must be at least one non Rebel vote on a that player for this to succeed and there has to be at least 7 players left in the game. Players will not be notified the extra votes have been placed. This use will not reveal R2D2’s identity.

Can we move on?

[triggercut]

I clearly need to ask the obvious question.

Triggercut,

1. How do we know that you aren't Yoda.

we don't, the question is if he is Dooku, how long will the rebels allow him to live? And at what point must we take him out because he cannot survive to the end game now. He dies by our hand or the rebels.

Yeah, but triggercut came blowing hard into this day with "Let me prove you so wrong, before you lynch me".

Why on earth wasn't he killed over night. Am I the only one that thought he was going to start this day with a shot or a choke?

More like: "let me tell you why this analysis shouldn't be dismissed out of hand as Rebel propaganda."

Why wasn't I killed overnight? Didn't Lassr just answer that question for you? The rebels (and I) fully expect the Empire to take me out, teammate or no.

At any rate, I was up for my morning bike ride and wanted to beat the strangle...

[Lassr]

I clearly need to ask the obvious question.

Triggercut,

1. How do we know that you aren't Yoda.

we don't, the question is if he is Dooku, how long will the rebels allow him to live? And at what point must we take him out because he cannot survive to the end game now. He dies by our hand or the rebels.

Yeah, but triggercut came blowing hard into this day with "Let me prove you so wrong, before you lynch me".

Why on earth wasn't he killed over night. Am I the only one that thought he was going to start this day with a shot or a choke?

If the rebels think he's trying to take a hit for the Empire...
<note: I am not defending him. Just playing devil's advocate>

[Unagi]

BTW--of the list of 7 players who were never on a Scoop Train, to me tru1cy doesn't seem like the best first target for a lynch vote. His playing is very much in line with how I remember him playing when he is an unpowered goodguy.

Perhaps he has me snowed, but I'd say that some of the other targets on that list are worth testing first.

For the Imperial Record, Count Triggercut; who are your top 3 (or 6, but in order) Rebel suspects?

[triggercut]

BTW--of the list of 7 players who were never on a Scoop Train, to me tru1cy doesn't seem like the best first target for a lynch vote. His playing is very much in line with how I remember him playing when he is an unpowered goodguy.

Perhaps he has me snowed, but I'd say that some of the other targets on that list are worth testing first.

For the Imperial Record, Count Triggercut; who are your top 3 (or 6, but in order) Rebel suspects?

RMC, Isgrimnur, and Newcastle

then

tru1cy, Mr. Bubbles, Kenetickid

then

El Guapo

I regret that I have but one life to give to my Empire.

[Isgrimnur]

Wow. I think this is the first time that I've missed a train, only to have someone try to throw me under the bus. I'm so sorry that I didn't adhere to triggercut's talking points memo yesterday and march lockstep with everyone else.

Yeah, Scoop's got to go. I don't need anyone to hold my hand on that one. As my only manner to affect that is by voting, I'll leave the shoot/strangle/Death of a Thousand Papercuts decision to those with a higher pay grade.

[Unagi]

I agree 100% on the RMC and Newcastle reads.



Isgrimnur, I am curious as to how you feel about Triggercut. I'd really like to get your take on things.


tru1cy, Mr. Bubbles, Kenetickid: our end game problem.

El Guapo. Re-read his cool defense of Scoop - I think he's higher on the list than you have him.


Trig, why are you giving no attention to LM's "oops I put CR within reach of R2D2 moment". For him to join the CD lynch, alone, on it's absurd merrits, I found that odd as hell - for it to put him into reach of R2D2 is nearly inexcusable.
(LM's only imperial moments are when he keeps talking about going back and finishing on Scoop)