2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sun Aug 28, 2011 6:12 pm

Exactly. There are reports of a tornado that touched down in South Jersey, though nothing I've seen from the national weather service saying it's official. There are pictures showing the roof of an apartment building pulled off, so it looks likely. Elsewhere in that part of the state, some 20 year old panicked and lost her life, trapped in her car when it was swept away by flooding water.

The media is absolutely out of control, but I don't question for one second what people in my state were ordered to do. It's still a mess outside and the flood waters are at insane levels.

And apparently this is the first hurricane that's touched ground in NJ since 1903.

RLMullen · Post by **RLMullen** » Sun Aug 28, 2011 6:33 pm

I'm in agreement with YK!

There is a very fine line between "it's just a bunch of rain and wind" and "oh my god, I'm gonna die!!" I've been on both sides of that line several times, and I can say from experience that you never know where that line is even when you cross it. The line certainly can't be marked with a simple scale such as cat 1 to cat 5. Hurricane Fran did most of her destruction at a level of cat 2. When oak trees are dropping all around you in the dark, and you can feel the ground shake... when you see an oversized pine tree cut your neighbor's house in two... when you see 50 foot hardwoods bend over touch the ground and then snap back upright, you don't care what category has been assigned to the storm; you wonder if you'll see daylight. When the eye of the hurricane passes directly overhead, and the sky is as clear as a winter's night... and you see more stars than you've ever seen, because there is absolutely NO light pollution, you feel a great amount of peace. Then you realize that it's just half-time!

NJ and NY got lucky... real damned lucky. I was surprised that the storm maintained its strength as it progressed up the coast. I've got to think that if it had made landfall as a Cat 3, we wouldn't be seeing any posts from our friends in NJ and NY for at least a week or two. You guys got close to that line, and I hope you never have to see the other side of it.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sun Aug 28, 2011 7:07 pm

I didn't lose power. Walking around this morning, I saw that a tiny little brook had transformed into a massive, roaring rapid that looked like it might overflow. I saw one tree that had been partly knocked down, and a street had become flooded.

So thankful it wasn't any worse.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sun Aug 28, 2011 7:16 pm

msduncan wrote: If a category 3, 4, or 5 had hit NY it would have been catastrophic. If it ever comes to that, a lot of people are going to die because they will think back to this weak system and stay where they are instead of evacuate.

This. Unfortunately.

(Well, I also think the city government will probably make themselves more prepared after this scare, but yeah)

Odin · Post by **Odin** » Sun Aug 28, 2011 7:31 pm

RLMullen wrote:NJ and NY got lucky... real damned lucky. I was surprised that the storm maintained its strength as it progressed up the coast. I've got to think that if it had made landfall as a Cat 3, we wouldn't be seeing any posts from our friends in NJ and NY for at least a week or two. You guys got close to that line, and I hope you never have to see the other side of it.

Luckily, there's a decent chance that it'll be 70-100 years before the next time a storm like this rolls along.

hentzau · Post by **hentzau** » Sun Aug 28, 2011 7:41 pm

I bet I can look forward to a change freeze for the rest of the week!

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Sun Aug 28, 2011 8:51 pm

Another "What YK said" post.

One key thing to remember about the population centers Irene was aimed at versus hurricanes in the gulf: you have sizable metropolitan populations in New York and Boston (and even DC and Philly) who do not own cars and do not drive. Can't decide to evacuate on 12 hours notice.

That and for most of Friday it wasn't the winds that the forecasters were cautioning about--it was coastal storm surge flooding (which happened) and rain-induced flash flooding of inland waterways (also happened.)

Not here, necessarily, but I've seen a lot of caterwauling from folks who seem to feel inconvenienced that they spent a Saturday indoors watching movies and playing games while it poured rain outside. First-world problems indeed.

Jag · Post by **Jag** » Sun Aug 28, 2011 8:59 pm

Glad to hear everyone came out ok.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sun Aug 28, 2011 9:06 pm

hentzau · Post by **hentzau** » Sun Aug 28, 2011 9:11 pm

You know how I can tell if there's a huge storm about to hit? I watch the value of my 401k plummet...

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sun Aug 28, 2011 9:12 pm

triggercut wrote: Not here, necessarily, but I've seen a lot of caterwauling from folks who seem to feel inconvenienced that they spent a Saturday indoors watching movies and playing games while it poured rain outside.

Ditto, very much.

KeriKitKat · Post by **KeriKitKat** » Sun Aug 28, 2011 9:36 pm

I saw a really impressive pic of the cloud bands moving into VA coast on Facebook, is it uncool to steal it and repost it here?

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Sun Aug 28, 2011 10:14 pm

msduncan wrote:I was wondering what all the panic was about. Being from the gulf coast, we usually ride out even weak category 3 hurricanes. The weak cat 1 that just blew through the northeast wouldn't even cause us to board our windows up. It's nothing more than a very wet thunderstorm (without the thunder).

Right, but that's like saying a snow storm that only dumps two feet of snow on you in Alabama is no big deal because in Buffalo, they only bring out the big plows when a storm dumps four feet of snow.

It's all relative. A Cat 2 hurricane in an are that is prepared for and used to hurricanes probably isn't the end of the world. The same Cat 2 hurricane slamming into the NJ coast would be utterly devastating in terms of property damage and lives lost. We just aren't prepared to deal with that, any more than the deep south would be prepared to deal with lake effect snow that happens south of Buffalo several times a year.

While my house held up rather well, many of my neighbors experienced severe flooding in their basements. Spent most of tonight dragging soaking wet carpet padding out of a friends basement. He woke up to almost two feet of water in his finished basement.

Also saw that they are expecting the Delaware river to peak tomorrow at 31 feet above normal at the Easton/PBurg bridge. Flood stage is at 22 feet. That is going to suck for the heroin dens in PBurg.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 12:08 am

KeriKitKat wrote:I saw a really impressive pic of the cloud bands moving into VA coast on Facebook, is it uncool to steal it and repost it here?

It would definitely be cool. I'd like to see it.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 8:28 am

Down the hill from me in the Manayunk neighborhood of Philadelphia:

zinckiwi · Post by **zinckiwi** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 1:10 pm

When Trees Attack

A man who was in a tent in Dauphin County, near Harrisburg, died when the storm knocked down a tree that fell on him about 5 a.m.

A second man who was sitting in a camper in Luzerne County in northeast Pennsylvania died when a tree fell on his vehicle. The third victim was driving on the Northeast Extension of the Pennsylvania Turnpike in Carbon County when his car went over water on the road and he lost control, went over an embankment and struck a tree. No names, ages or other details were given about the victims.

The fourth victim, Michael Scerarko, 44, was killed Sunday when a tree fell on him in his yard in Stroudsburg.

Looks like the Ents are finishing up at Orthanc and turning their sights on us.

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 1:31 pm

A collection of photos, compiled by the Denver Post

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 2:49 pm

No power at my house since yesterday morning... Could be out all week.

yay free wifi at the mall!

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 3:08 pm

On a I didn't think they couldn't get any worse but yet they continue to amaze me note. Work heard I had no power and asked me to drive into the still rising flood waters to work. Being not a idiot I declined. Got a message a few hours later that the other office is flooded and all roads are closed. I REALLY need to find a new job!

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 3:50 pm

A guy I work with has a hunting lodge next to a creek (not sure where in NC). They got flooded up to about 3 feet and have had to rip out walls, carpet, everything. Huge mess. Four houses nearby were flooded off their foundations and are total losses.

SpaceLord · Post by **SpaceLord** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 8:27 pm

Good night, Irene.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 8:42 pm

After exhausting the OED, we started numbering them. When overlapping hurricanes formed at all points on the Earth's surface, and our scheme was foiled by Cantor diagonalization, we just decided to name them all "Steve". Your local forecast tomorrow is "Steve". Good luck.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:19 am

TS Katia is building out in the Atlantic.

Katia has maximum sustained winds late Tuesday morning near 45 mph (72 kph). The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says gradual strengthening is forecast and Katia is expected to be near hurricane strength by late Wednesday or early Thursday.

The storm's forecast track shows it could become a major hurricane over the weekend.

Based on the map at wiki, it's far enough north that it's not likely to make it into the Gulf of Mexico, but could head up the Eastern seaboard again if the track gets settled in just the wrong path. Of course, it may just hook back out to sea before then, too.

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 12:50 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:TS Katia is building out in the Atlantic.

Katia has maximum sustained winds late Tuesday morning near 45 mph (72 kph). The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says gradual strengthening is forecast and Katia is expected to be near hurricane strength by late Wednesday or early Thursday.

The storm's forecast track shows it could become a major hurricane over the weekend.
Based on the map at wiki, it's far enough north that it's not likely to make it into the Gulf of Mexico, but could head up the Eastern seaboard again if the track gets settled in just the wrong path. Of course, it may just hook back out to sea before then, too.

I am betting it will recurve and go fishing.

telcta · Post by **telcta** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 1:23 pm

Forced perspective makes this tree look enormous...

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 1:33 pm

Current Irene tally: 38 dead, 3.3 million without power. What a bunch of hype!

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:03 pm

YellowKing wrote:Current Irene tally: 38 dead, 3.3 million without power. What a bunch of hype!

Some of my more intelligent friends have been lowering their perceived IQ points going off on what a overly hyped storm this was. I may borrow this quote word for word...

Covenant72 · Post by **Covenant72** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:07 pm

Finally got my power back a couple hours ago! Been out since Sunday morning. Overall we got lucky; a few big branches in the backyard that will need dealing with, but no property damage.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:22 pm

YellowKing wrote:Current Irene tally: 38 dead, 3.3 million without power. What a bunch of hype!

If only one person dies, there wasn't enough hype.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 3:01 pm

Vorret wrote:
YellowKing wrote:Current Irene tally: 38 dead, 3.3 million without power. What a bunch of hype!
If only one person dies, there wasn't enough hype.

You must walk around in a steel plated bubble.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 5:52 pm

Video of Irene from start to finish.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 7:13 pm

Enough wrote:
YellowKing wrote:Current Irene tally: 38 dead, 3.3 million without power. What a bunch of hype!
Some of my more intelligent friends have been lowering their perceived IQ points going off on what a overly hyped storm this was. I may borrow this quote word for word...

I've seen this too. They're missing that "hype" in this case isn't about persuading people to buy the newest gadget or try the newest fad. It's about getting people to take a not-yet-visible threat seriously enough to take inconvenient precautions. While some news and weather types have obnoxious delivery styles, the message itself requires extensive repetition.

If they were never in personal danger but the hype caused someone else in range to escape harm, then the hype was still valuable.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 7:34 pm

The one valid criticism I saw was the media trying desperately to make certain "man on the scene" reports look far more dramatic than they actually were. I saw one example where the reporter was talking about barely being able to stand up in the high winds. What viewers didn't see were the dozens of people ambling around off-camera behind him.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 7:59 pm

YellowKing wrote:The one valid criticism I saw was the media trying desperately to make certain "man on the scene" reports look far more dramatic than they actually were. I saw one example where the reporter was talking about barely being able to stand up in the high winds. What viewers didn't see were the dozens of people ambling around off-camera behind him.

I was actually embarrassed for The Weather Channel at one point. One of the ground people held up a wind meter. Reported it at 50+ MPH and said he saw the sky lightening and thought he might be seeing the end of the heart of the storm. This was just after the anchormen did a setup about how this guy was in the "most dangerous" portion of the storm.

The anchormen ignored his comment and played up how dangerous it looked. FFS, can I get one "news" outlet that isn't all about sensationalism. Probably not. At the end of the day, they are just turning around the NWS product and providing "value add" commentary. I should just stick to the original source.

wonderpug · Post by **wonderpug** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 8:02 pm

Yesterday I was supposed to drive from Rochester back to Boston. I've done the drive a bunch of times; it takes 7 or 8 hours and is easily doable in a day. On non-hurricane aftermath days, that is.

I don't know how much of this made national news, but the Gilboa Dam was threatening to burst and flood northward along the Schoharie Creek. All bridges crossing the Schoharie Creek were closed, including the major I90 interstate artery. This translates to a huge impassable wall to east/west travel.

Ok, I think, I can still do this. I just need to go north of the Mohawk River that Schoharie feeds to. Except I find that there's plenty of flooding along the Mohawk, too. That Interstate 90 artery isn't just closed at a bridge; it's closed for over 120 miles indefinitely. Oh, and the primary alternate highway that parallels it is completely flooded and also closed.

So instead of my original highway sequence of "take 90 to 87 back to 90," I instead plotted the slightly more circuitous route of "take 90 to 81 to 31 to 46 to 274 to 28 to 29 to 87 to 'wing it when I get there because they keep opening and closing the highways at that point.'" I was way out in the middle of nowhere on empty (but scenic!) county highways. I start feeling foolish. Surely I didn't have to go this far out on my detour.

I didn't go far enough. My leg on 29 was where my cockamamie route overlapped with the department of transportation's recommended cockamamie detour, and I was stuck in unmoving traffic on a highway that saw more traffic yesterday then it may have seen in the past decade combined.

Luckily I had family I could crash with nearby for the night, and the travel today went relatively smoothly (though the interstate is still closed for 120 miles). I can't imagine what the people without that option did for the night. It's not like these tiny towns have huge hotels or anything to house all these stranded travelers. I checked online at 10pm and Google Maps was still showing long stretches of 'severely slow' traffic all along the region.

That's just the experience for me, a guy trying to cross the flooded state once and be done with it. Tons and tons of people typically try to cross that way as part of their daily commute, not to mention all the truckers that travel the route. Just crazy!

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:09 pm

I am pretty sure that NJ is falling back into the earth. Major highways here in the People's Republic have had sections collapse, and sink holes have been opening up all over the place.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 10:26 pm

Finally got my power at 7pm today. That really wasn't fun...

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:21 pm

Octavious wrote:Finally got my power at 7pm today. That really wasn't fun...

A couple of my friends in South Bound Brook got power back tonight too -- for 10 minutes. They're back out.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Wed Aug 31, 2011 12:41 am

malchior wrote:
Octavious wrote:Finally got my power at 7pm today. That really wasn't fun...
A couple of my friends in South Bound Brook got power back tonight too -- for 10 minutes. They're back out.

I think i'll just burn the place down if that happens.

KKBlue · Post by **KKBlue** » Wed Aug 31, 2011 12:41 am

Don't it always seem to go, that you don't know what you got till it's gone...

I'm wondering how much of my local water damage here was because of storm drains emptying into the nearby rivers? I have a hard time believing that the over flowing water was solely caused from the rain itself. I truly feel that the rain water is diverted from streets to city approved rivers and streams, which caused the overflow.