[WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Conclusion

[Grundbegriff]

can someone remove their vote from him so he is at n-2.

Sure, for that reason:

 withdraw Qantaga 
 


even though he's a dirty, low-down scoundrel.

[redrun]

can someone remove their vote from him so he is at n-2.

Sure, for that reason:

 withdraw Qantaga 
 


even though he's a dirty, low-down scoundrel.

I'm hoping he is a tall, multi-colored robes, bearded, scoundrel.

[triggercut]

Newcastle was a bit less circumspect than I was trying to be, but yes....let's wait a bit here to give Frodo a chance to submit some sort of conditional order please.

[tru1cy]

Newcastle was a bit less circumspect than I was trying to be, but yes....let's wait a bit here to give Frodo a chance to submit some sort of conditional order please.

Again, we speculating the Bubbles hasn't done this already... Maybe you and Newcastle know something we don't?

[tru1cy]

Btw if there is another hobbit out there I think they should speak up now. Bubbles need all the options he can when he passes

[bb2112]

Observation about the clarification of the addendum... if we decide not to vote, the ringbearer will be scouted and he will get to choose who to hand the ring to. Gollum doesn't get a chance to steal from Frodo before he passes the ring. If we waited for day six to do this, Frodo would pass the ring to one of three hobbits. Gollum would have a 1/3 chance of trying to grab from the right hobbit. Evil would have a 1/3 chance of capturing the right hobbit. Overall, it might be better odds than trying to kill Saruman on night six (assuming our early attempts failed to find him.). If we'd already scouted Gollum, the odds for good improve.

Logicly, if Qantaga isn't Saruman, we should start hunting for Gollum tomorrow and not vote on day six to force the scout of Frodo from imprisionment. However, it doesn't feel right - like trying to win via a rules loophole.

I was trying to decide to bring this up due to it gaming the system (so to speak), but since redrun has already, we should discuss this a little more. I also think we should take at least one more if not 2 votes off of Q accounting for temptation for the last evil and/or gollum to pile on. Or maybe that would be ok, because if someone does pile on the vote, then we can choose to scout them next. But that is neither here nor there.

I guess I want to discuss either the hale mary option of waiting to the last second and scouting Q, or letting Frodo die a noble death. Either this turn, or in turn 6.

If we kill Q, and Frodo is not released (meaning we whiffed on Saruman), then we can always let Frodo die on day 6 by choosing not to scout and ensuring a pass of our choosing.

If we scout Q today and Frodo is released, we would have to pass the ring 4 times. Without hitting Gollum or having Gollum steal.

If we choose to not scout Q, and let Frodo die on day 6, then we would have to pass the ring twice, however, we would be down one hobbit. Probably 2 because evil will be playing hide the hobbit and we will have to keep hunting orc to get our hobbits back. Now that Theodalf has bit the big one, it seems like the smartest play by evil.

Thoughts...?

[Lagom Lite]

Rules Revision (addendum?): If the Ringbearer is killed as a result of the "Let The Ringbearer Decide" rule, the Ring is redistributed to a random player.

I know it's ad hoc, but I'm covering up an obvious exploit.

[Lagom Lite]

Qantaga (4) - RMC, coopasonic, tru1cy, Grundbegriff, rshetts2


Majority is 6

Deadline is Wednesday October 26th, at 9 p.m. Central European Time (GMT +1)

[rshetts2]

Do not forget that passing the ring is an option and Gollum has to consider that Frodo may choose to not pass the ring and hold it. To be honest I will need to re-read the rules but are we even notified if the ring is passed between the hobbits? If not, then its a shell game and the rings location remains a secret. This makes it much tougher on Gollum because he needs to be dead on or he doesnt get another steal shot.

[redrun]

Rules Revision (addendum?): If the Ringbearer is killed as a result of the "Let The Ringbearer Decide" rule, the Ring is redistributed to a random player.

I know it's ad hoc, but I'm covering up an obvious exploit.

Thanks. I was busy writing up a long note as to why I'd really rather not try to win via a ringbearer death caused by not voting while the ringbearer is imprisioned.

Three other hobbits, as compared to the rest of us? No, I don't think we want random.org to make this decision.

[triggercut]

Newcastle was a bit less circumspect than I was trying to be, but yes....let's wait a bit here to give Frodo a chance to submit some sort of conditional order please.

Again, we speculating the Bubbles hasn't done this already... Maybe you and Newcastle know something we don't?

I am speculating on the fact that in the past Mr. Bubbles has gone MIA at least once in a game that I'm aware of, and at times tends to have a lurk-ish presence in others.

Missing your Precious, are you?

[bb2112]

Ok, so based on LL's revised rule we still have a decision. I think letting Frodo die by not scouting is probably no longer a good option.

1A. Scout Q today and hope he is Saruman, 4 ring passes

1B. Scout Q today and hope he is Saruman, find out he isn't, scramble to find Saruman without the benefit of Theodalf - we are in trouble

2. Randomly scout another player today, reduce the number of ring passes, and hope Q is Saruman for a later lynch

Can anyone think of any options I may be missing here?

I think our path is pretty clear unless you guys see something I don't.

[Grundbegriff]

Let me reiterate something that others have noted:

Right now, I'm a hobbit and tru1cy and bb2112 are either hobbits or Gollum.

The only way any member of the set {Grundbegriff, tru1cy, bb2112} is Gollum is if a hobbit is in hiding.

If you are a hobbit in hiding, and you know that that set includes Gollum and you're not saying anything, you should expect to be banned from all future events at the Green Dragon. For this is no time to be protecting Gollum rather than exposing him (or at least diminishing the pool of candidates).

[bb2112]

Let me reiterate something that others have noted:

Right now, I'm a hobbit and tru1cy and bb2112 are either hobbits or Gollum.

The only way any member of the set {Grundbegriff, tru1cy, bb2112} is Gollum is if a hobbit is in hiding.

If you are a hobbit in hiding, and you know that that set includes Gollum and you're not saying anything, you should expect to be banned from all future events at the Green Dragon. For this is no time to be protecting Gollum rather than exposing him (or at least diminishing the pool of candidates).

+1

[tru1cy]

Let me reiterate something that others have noted:

Right now, I'm a hobbit and tru1cy and bb2112 are either hobbits or Gollum.

The only way any member of the set {Grundbegriff, tru1cy, bb2112} is Gollum is if a hobbit is in hiding.

If you are a hobbit in hiding, and you know that that set includes Gollum and you're not saying anything, you should expect to be banned from all future events at the Green Dragon. For this is no time to be protecting Gollum rather than exposing him (or at least diminishing the pool of candidates).

+1

+ 2. If a hobbit is on hiding they need to speak up now.. Smedgel can speak up well if he likes

[rshetts2]

Im thinking we have a hidden Gollum because if it was a hobbit they should have come out yesterday and didnt. This should make things a bit easier for Frodo upon release as he has 4 soild options upon release. Keep the ring or pass it to one of the three probable hobbits.
Hopefully, Qan is Saruman because if we have to search through our unknowns to find him we are going to need some luck on our side.

[triggercut]

I have been stuck on a hunch that Grundbegriff was Boromir, posing as a hobbit and hoping that he would be passed the ring. Leaving any specific player out of this:

1. Let's say that a Ringbearer passes it to Boromir. I think as a Fellowship we're stuck waiting to the next Chapter to discover whether or not we have the ring back in our possession or not--correct? So, hypothetically, if Bubbles is Frodo and passes the ring to Boromir TODAY during Chapter 4 upon being freed, we don't find that information out until TOMORROW, at the start of Chapter 5, correct?

2. Next problem: Boromir immediately realizes his corrupted-ness and gains access to communicating with the Shadow. At that point he can pass the ring directly to a remaining alive member of Team Shadow, n'est-ce pas? Even more diabolical--he can pass the ring to a Free Person, and the Freep becomes an immediate member of Team Shadow himself.

3. In any event, once Boromir gets the Ring, the Fellowship loses all chain of custody on the thing. Team Shadow has it, and even if Boromir holds it, when we send him scouting he still gets to pass the thing and can do so to a member of Team Shadow...or to a player they're reasonably sure is a Freep who will immediately join the badguys.

4. Worse--I see no rules to prevent Team Shadow--now that they've identified 3 hobbits/Gollum for sure--from passing the ring around willy-nilly to Free Peoples, converting them en masse to their side.

If cases #3 or #4, then I think if we have a hidden Hobbit, his remaining hidden may be our only protection from that scenario.

Gollum may be hiding in the set of previously Captured and freed players: tru1cy and bb2112.
Grundbegriff may be a hobbit, Gollum, or Boromir, in order of least to most screwed we would be based on what he really is.
Bubbles is Frodo. (One more reason I thought it prudent to give him time to get an order in was to spell this scenario out while I wasn't Dayquilled to the gills, but also because Bubbles held the ring after a few of us pointed out that doing so was an increasingly bad idea.)

One final bit of gloom and doom: In most best-case scenarios I can come up with, during Journey 7, I think Team Shadow and/or Gollum--if they survive--may both have about a 1-in-3 or 1-in-4 chance to steal the ring, all other things being equal. That's a dangerously high chance against us winning, even if it seems that we're in OK shape right now with Qantaga in our sights.

Thoughts?

[coopasonic]

I have been stuck on a hunch that Grundbegriff was Boromir, posing as a hobbit and hoping that he would be passed the ring.

For this to be true one of the hobbits has to be screwing us by not coming forward. I don't buy it (well unless it's pr0ner who makes his own rules).

[bb2112]

Thoughts?

Trig, nice analysis.

This is exactly what I was thinking when I posted about Grund earlier. This is also why it is so important that the last hobbit step forward if he is out there. If he doesn't step forward, then we have to assume that Grund is probably telling the truth and is a hobbit and that Gollum is in hiding. Passing Gollum the ring would be a disaster, but giving it to Boromir would be even worse.

We are walking a very fine line, and without Theodalf, there isn't a safety net anymore.

If we free Frodo today we have to make 4 ring passes using each other hobbit only once and hope that Gollum chooses wrong when he goes to make his one time steal.

[coopasonic]

This is exactly what I was thinking when I posted about Grund earlier. This is also why it is so important that the last hobbit step forward if he is out there.

If a hobbit steps forward now, I'm not sure I'm going to buy it. Actualyl I'm pretty sure I'm not going to buy it. The time has passed.

[coopasonic]

4. Worse--I see no rules to prevent Team Shadow--now that they've identified 3 hobbits/Gollum for sure--from passing the ring around willy-nilly to Free Peoples, converting them en masse to their side.

Hey, there's a plus for us free people's.

[bb2112]

4. Worse--I see no rules to prevent Team Shadow--now that they've identified 3 hobbits/Gollum for sure--from passing the ring around willy-nilly to Free Peoples, converting them en masse to their side.

Hey, there's a plus for us free people's.

Ok, so if for some odd reason we choose to not scout Q today, Coop just volunteered. Thanks Coop.

[coopasonic]

4. Worse--I see no rules to prevent Team Shadow--now that they've identified 3 hobbits/Gollum for sure--from passing the ring around willy-nilly to Free Peoples, converting them en masse to their side.

Hey, there's a plus for us free people's.

Ok, so if for some odd reason we choose to not scout Q today, Coop just volunteered. Thanks Coop.

silly hobbit, jealous?

[bb2112]

Don't mock the little people.

Is it time for second breakfast yet?

[rshetts2]

Thoughts?

If we free Frodo today we have to make 4 ring passes using each other hobbit only once and hope that Gollum chooses wrong when he goes to make his one time steal.

This is not true. Frodo has the option of NOT passing the ring as well. This is a very important distinction because Gollum now has to decide not only who the ring gets passed to, but if it gets passed at all. That makes it a much more difficult decision for Gollum. Of course if Qan is not Saruman its all moot because Frodo will remain imprisoned once again.

Regarding Trigger-servant's attempts to muddle our thinking with the whole Grund may be Boromir stuff. This only makes sense if a hobbit is still in hiding and a hobbit staying in hiding makes no sense at all. That is unless the said hobbit is trying to completely throw the game. Since a hobbit cant be killed by servants and Frodo needs all possible pass options available to him, any hobbit still in hiding is SCREWING THE FELLOWSHIP! This has been pointed out several times ever since Frodo was imprisoned and I can see no viable reason to believe a hobbit would not have come forth by now.
Because of this and because of earlier posts by Triggercut, I believe that Triggercut is either our missing servant or Boromir himself and hes trying his best to mislead the Fellowship.

[bb2112]

Yes, not passing the ring is an option. When I say 4 passes, that has to be included as an option as well, but I didn't want to take the time to write it all out, plus I had hoped the thought would have ocurred to our Frodo without it being spelled out. But either way...

[triggercut]

I think our best proof of the reality of our 4 hobbits being genuine is as coop says. I wouldn't buy a new hobbit reveal now either. That said, I wanted to be sure we were at least aware of where the clock is and what we could be facing with the good but imperfect knowledge we have.

[triggercut]

Rshetts, I'm actually a good candidate to send scouting after Qantaga if he's Saruman and the Ring is back in our possession. I am a Fellow, and not Boromir.

Thoughts?

If we free Frodo today we have to make 4 ring passes using each other hobbit only once and hope that Gollum chooses wrong when he goes to make his one time steal.

This is not true. Frodo has the option of NOT passing the ring as well. This is a very important distinction because Gollum now has to decide not only who the ring gets passed to, but if it gets passed at all. That makes it a much more difficult decision for Gollum. Of course if Qan is not Saruman its all moot because Frodo will remain imprisoned once again.

Regarding Trigger-servant's attempts to muddle our thinking with the whole Grund may be Boromir stuff. This only makes sense if a hobbit is still in hiding and a hobbit staying in hiding makes no sense at all. That is unless the said hobbit is trying to completely throw the game. Since a hobbit cant be killed by servants and Frodo needs all possible pass options available to him, any hobbit still in hiding is SCREWING THE FELLOWSHIP! This has been pointed out several times ever since Frodo was imprisoned and I can see no viable reason to believe a hobbit would not have come forth by now.
Because of this and because of earlier posts by Triggercut, I believe that Triggercut is either our missing servant or Boromir himself and hes trying his best to mislead the Fellowship.

[redrun]

Rshetts, I'm actually a good candidate to send scouting after Qantaga if he's Saruman and the Ring is back in our possession. I am a Fellow, and not Boromir.

Previously you stated:

I'm Fellowship, but have good reason to keep the remainder of my identity secret for the time being.

I'm interested in what has changed?

[redrun]

 Qantaga 
 


Shall we find out where this is all going?

[bb2112]

 Qantaga 
 

[Qantaga]

[Lagom Lite]

Qantaga (6) - RMC, coopasonic, tru1cy, Grundbegriff, rshetts2, redrun, bb2112


Voting is closed.

[Lagom Lite]

Journey 5 – Helm’s Deep

The sky was utterly dark, and the stillness of the heavy air foreboded storm. Suddenly the clouds were seared by a blinding flash. Branched lightning smote down upon the eastward hills. For a staring moment the Company saw all the space between them and the Man-made Dike at Helm’s Deep lite with white light: it was boiling and crawling with black shapes, some squat and broad, some tall and grim, with high helms and sable shields. Hundreds and hundreds more were pouring over the Dike. The dark tide flowed up to the walls from cliff to cliff. Thunder rolled in the valley. Rain came lashing down.

Arrows thick as the rain came whistling over the battlements, and fell clinking and glancing on the stones. Some found a mark. Brazen trumpets sounded. The enemy surged forward, some against the Deeping Wall, others towards the causeway and the ramp that led up to the Hornburg-gates. There the hugest Orcs were mustered, and the wild men of the Dunland fells. They reached the summit of the rock; they drove towards the gates.

”Come!” said bb2112. ”This is the hour when we draw swords together!”

Running like fire, the Company sped along the wall, and up the steps, and passed into the outer court upon the Rock. As they ran they gathered a handful of stout swordsmen.

”Two!” said rshetts2, patting his axe.

”Two?” said RMC. ”I have done better, though now I must grope for spent arrows; all mine are gone.”

”I make my tale twenty at the least!” said tru1cy.

”That is only a few leaves in the forest,” said triggercut.

Down from the wall leapt coopasonic with a fierce cry that echoed in the cliffs. He soon had work enough.

”Ai-oi!” pr0ner shouted. ”The Orcs are behind the wall. Ai-oi!”

”Come! There are enough for us both,” replied Newcastle.

”Twenty-one!” cried Grundbegriff.

”Good!” said redrun. ”But my count is now two dozen. It has been knife-work up here.”

And then, sudden and terrible, from the tower above, the sound of the great horn of Helm rang out. All that heard that sound trembled. Many of the Orcs cast themselves on their faces and covered their ears with their claws. But on the walls men looked up, listening with wonder; for the echoes did not die. Ever the horn-blasts wound on among the hills; nearer now and louder they answered one to another, blowing fierce and free.

”Helm! Helm!” the Riders shouted. ”Helm is arisen and comes back to war. Helm for Theoden King! Forth Eorlingas!”

Captains and champions fell or fled before them, among those, the White Hand General known as Qantaga. Neither orc nor man withstood them. In Qantaga's keep were the Fellow known as Mr Bubbles. Chained to the General's cage he wept and cursed.

So King Theoden rode from Helm’s Gate and clove his path to the great Dike. The hosts of Isengard roared, swaying this way and that, turning from fear to fear. Again the horn sounded from the tower. Down through the breach of the Dike charged the king’s company. The Orcs reeled and screamed and cast aside both sword and spear. Like a black smoke driven by a mounting wind they fled. Wailing they passed under the waiting shadow of the trees; and from that shadow none ever came again.

Mr Bubbles turned to the Company. "What took you so long?" he asked.


Qantaga has been slain by the Fellowship!

Qantaga was a Servant of the Eye!


Mr Bubbles has been freed!


Players:
1. Grundbegriff
2. redrun
3. theohall of the Free People, Slain by Bureaucracy
4. Qantaga - a Servant of the Eye, Slain by the Fellowship
5. bb2112
6. rhsetts2
7. Remus West - a Servant of the Eye, Slain by the Fellowship
8. RMC
9. tru1cy
10. triggercut
11. Mr Bubbles
12. coopasonic
13. pr0ner
14. Newcastle


Gollum, will you guide a player?
Gollum, will you steal from a player?
Boromir, will you scan a player?
Gandalf, will you scan a player?
Witch-King, will you scan a player?
Aragorn, will you protect a player?
Servants of the Eye, will you hunt a player?

[redrun]

For what you once were, you will be remembered and stories will be told.
For what you became, the memories and stories will be cautionary,
speaking the tale of your desire for power and the folly that followed your desire.

[Mr Bubbles]

Excellent! I got so tired of drinking that crap the orc kept giving me..

[Grundbegriff]

Excellent! I got so tired of drinking that crap the orc kept giving me..

Welcome back again!

[tru1cy]

Theodalf! Theodalf! Theodalf!!!

[rshetts2]

Welcome back Bubbles, now point out on Grund, where the bad wizard touched you.
This has worked out well so far. We got an extra day to work things out, taking out Remus and then took out Saru-Qan. Only one evil left and of course that pesky Gollum fella. Hopefully, our nite goes smoothly. Nice job, Theo on your scans.

[Mr Bubbles]

Welcome back Bubbles, now point out on Grund, where the bad wizard touched you.

Well it all started when he flew up in his broom and said he was looking for his lost toad Trevor.. He asked me to help him find it, with the promises of candy and after the first lollipop I blacked out.