[WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Conclusion

[Newcastle]

You do realize that Aragorn cannot protect the same individual two nights in a row? Seriously, you all understand that dont you? You all need to cut poor Aragorn some slack. I have a feeling when all comes out you will find that he has done his job and done it well.

If you're not Evil, I suspect Evil will now try to kill you for hinting that you're Aragorn.

Him hinting that might be very wrong...Just say'in.

No I'm spartacus.....

/looks at cue cards

"oh sorry, wrong one"

/clears throat

"Yeah what RMC said"

[Lagom Lite]

Chapter 6 – Minas Tirith

They passed now into the wide land beyond the Rammas Echor. So the men of Gondor called the out-wall that they had built with great labour, after Ithilien fell under the shadow of their Enemy. The townlands were rich, with tilth and many orchards, and homesteads there were with oast and garner, fold and byre, and many rills rippling through the green from the highlands down to Anduin. Yet the herdsmen and husbandmen that dwelt there were not many, and the most part of the people in Gondor lived in the seven circles of the City.

Where the White Mountains of Ered Nimrais came to their end they saw the dark mass of Mount Mindolluin, the deep purple shadows of its high glens, and its tall face whitening in the rising day. And upon its out-thrust knee was the Guarded City, with its seven walls of stone so strong and old that it seemed to have been not builded but carven by giants out of the bones of the earth.

A strong citadel it was indeed, and not to be taken by a host of enemies, if there were any within that could hold weapons; unless some foe could come upon the narrow shoulder that joined the Hill of Guard to the moutain mass. But that shoulder, which rose to the height of the fifth wall, was hedged with great ramparts right up to the precipice that overhung its western end; and in that space stood the houses and domed tombs of bygone kings and lords, for ever silent between the mountain and the tower.

The Company held a great debate with the lords of Gondor and of Rohan. They decided that they should set forth with seven thousands, if these might be found; and the great part of this force should be on foot, because of the evil lands into which they would go.

tru1cy and triggercut should find some two thousands of those that he had gathered to them in the South; but Mr Bubbles and coopasonic should find three and a half thousands; and pr0ner five hundreds of the Rohirrim who were unhorsed but themselves warworthy, and Newcastle should lead five hundreds of their best Riders on horse; and another company of five hundred horse there would be, among which should ride Grundbegriff, redrun and bb2112: all told six thousand foot and a thousand horse.

Two days later the army of the West was all assembled on the Pelennor. Scouts reported that no enemies remained upon the roads east as far as the Cross-roads of the Fallen King. All now was ready for the last throw.

But as they approached the Black Gate, one of their number was yet again missing. Mr Bubbles and his cohort had not made it.


The Fellowship is carrying the Ring.

Mr Bubbles has been captured!


Players:
1. Grundbegriff
2. redrun
3. theohall of the Free People, Slain by Bureaucracy
4. Qantaga - a Servant of the Eye, Slain by the Fellowship
5. bb2112
6. rhsetts2
7. Remus West - a Servant of the Eye, Slain by the Fellowship
8. RMC
9. tru1cy
10. triggercut
11. Mr Bubbles - captured
12. coopasonic
13. pr0ner
14. Newcastle




Fellowship, how will you proceed?

You may Appoint a Scout
or
Hunt Some Orc.


Majority is 6.


Deadline is Sunday, October 30th at 9 p.m. Central European Time (GMT +1)

[rshetts2]

Well I figured the remaining servant wouldnt go for it but I threw it out there anyway, just to give him something to think about. Looks like we are now down to a guessing game. I am in fact Aragorn. The reason I didnt protect Theo the nite he got killed was because I got very lucky and blocked the kill attempt on him the previous nite. I have been trying to block captures on hobbits since Gandalfs demise but with Frodo, 3 hobbits and Gollum in the mix, the odds of me protecting the same one the servants chose were slim. I hinted Aragorn last nite because I planned on self protecting so that 1) there was no risk of losing todays protection which is far more important and 2) since I was self protecting I could try to draw Evils fire. I didnt think they would jump at it but it also allows me the option to protect any of the hobbits from capture on our final day. That is unless evil decides to capture me instead

Anyway unless someone knows who the final servant is we have only 1 option at this point and that is to  Hunt Some Orc 
 


lets roll those bones and hope lady luck is on our side! Now excuse me while I go have a threesome with Arwen and Eowyn.

[Grundbegriff]

Assuming you go uncontested -- as seems likely given the terrain -- well played!

 Hunt Some Orc 
 

[triggercut]

 Hunt Some Orc 
 

[tru1cy]

 hunt some orc 
 

[Grundbegriff]

Tools:

Roles

• Frodo == Mr Bubbles
• Sam (Hobbit) == bb2112
• Merry (Hobbit) == tru1cy
• Pippin (Hobbit) == Grundbegriff
• Aragorn == rshetts
• Gandalf == theohall
• Boromir == redrun xor ???
• Eowyn (Free) == redrun xor ???
• Gimli (Free) == redrun xor ???
• Legolas (Free) == redrun xor ???
• Uruk == Remus West xor ???
• Saruman == Qantaga
• Witch-King == Remus West xor ???
• Gollum == ???

• Mr Bubbles == Frodo
• bb2112 == Sam
• tru1cy == Merry
• Grundbegriff == Pippin
• theohall == Gandalf
• rhsetts2 == Aragorn
• redrun (confirmed Free)
• coopasonic == ???
• Newcastle == ???
• pr0ner == ???
• RMC == ???
• triggercut == ???
• Qantaga == Saruman
• Remus West (confirmed Servant of the Eye)

The set {redrun, coopasonic, Newcastle, pr0ner, RMC, triggercut} comprises a Servant, Gollum, Boromir, Eowyn, Gimli, and Legolas (with redrun definitely neither Gollum nor the Servant).

[Newcastle]

 hunt some orc 
 

[Grundbegriff]

 Withdraw Orcage 
 


Should we pause to discuss the final play? It would be a shame to botch it. Or would it be better just to forge ahead?

[Newcastle]

well we have the ring thats the big big thing right now....do we let the hobbits "wink & nod" to each other and try to parse out the best passes? Problem with that is that evil can parse through that.....the fact we got the ring is huge i think and the ring bearer bears a great weight right now.....it's really down to a hobbit making the correct pass today/tonight/tomorrow.

i am not sure how much insight i could give on the ring tossing to be honest. But if we want to theorize, sure...but at risk of evil & gollum figuring out whats up and who might have the ring and where itmight be going...the more we keep that in the dark i think it's best.

So i am kind of thinking less discussion of potential ring targets or ring travellings might be good...unless it can be spelled out in a generic terms...just my two copper.


I think we have to free bubbles so there is another ring destination in the mix....that's a given.

Its right now down to a good protection w/ aragon & a good set of hobbit handoffs.

[Newcastle]

by the way rshetts....if you are aragon and are speaking words of truth.....nice blockage on theo!

[Grundbegriff]

Well, this is Chapter 6, which means that tonight is Journey 7-- Gollum's last chance to win.

Let's assume he has saved up his sole theft attempt for tonight.

After yesterday's Orc Hunt, bb2112 controlled the ring but was under the burden of passing it. Evil gambled that he had passed it back to Bubbles and attacked Bubbles. This turned out to be a bad guess, since Bubbles was captured by we still controlled the ring. This implies that bb2112 did one of three things: (1) passed it to tru1cy, (2) passed it to me, (3) passed it to someone other than tru1cy and me.

Since (3) is impossible to second-guess, let's disregard it.

Gollum's theft is resolved right off the bat at nightfall. So if he robs either tru1cy or me, and if we have the ring, then Gollum stands a 50/50 chance of winning the whole enchilada unless the ring is passed before nightfall. Of course, if I have it and pass it to tru1cy before nightfall, that changes nothing; likewise, if tru1cy has it and passes it to me before nightfall, that also changes nothing. Either would be a wasted move. Frodo is in captivity and is therefore ineligible to hold it, and bb2112 is likewise ineligible to hold it until Chapter 7. So basically, there's no counterplay against Gollum's attempt.

He flips a coin, and if he gets it right, he wins.

From the standpoint of Evil, things don't look good. As long as (a) we Hunt Orc, and (b) Aragorn protects tonight's ringbearer from Evil, the final morning is a cakewalk and there's nothing Evil can do about it.

Of course, the only way that (b) can happen is if Aragorn knows who has the ring, and he can't know that without Gollum also learning it and winning the game with a guaranteed theft. Aragorn's protection only works against Evil.

Everything now depends on three factors:
(s) Will Gollum guess who has the Ring and attempt to steal it before the Ring is passed?
(t) Will Aragorn protect the bearer of the Ring tonight?
(u) Will Evil guess who has the Ring tonight?

Am I missing anything?

[Lagom Lite]

Hunt Some Orc (4) - rshetts2, Grundbegriff, triggercut, tru1cy, Newcastle


Majority is 6

Deadline is Sunday, October 30th at 9 p.m. Central European Time (GMT +1)

[redrun]

Gollum's theft is resolved right off the bat at nightfall.

Am I missing anything?

Agree with the rest, wonder about this. From what I see, there is a race condition at nightfall - who puts the order in first, Gollum or Hobbit X? If Hobbit X goes first, Gollum has a three way decision.

So, unless I'm missing something, I'd recommend that we keep the vote two short of complete, then let Grund and Tru1cy put the last two votes in.

This last bit assumes we hunt orc today. If we scout Gollum today, it's a 1/3 shot for Evil to capture the ringbearer, but no Gollum to worry about.

[Grundbegriff]

This last bit assumes we hunt orc today. If we scout Gollum today, it's a 1/3 shot for Evil to capture the ringbearer, but no Gollum to worry about.

The cost of this plan would be leaving bb2112 in captivity. He'd be unavailable to catch on the final morning.

What's interesting is that this probably doesn't matter. The hobbit who possesses the Ring on that morning will still have two others hobbits to act as recipient.

Pursuing this line would allow us to take a crack at Gollum. Sure, we might miss, but if we find him, we've secured victory.

I propose that we back off the Orc Hunt for a moment and consider this plan; it appears to have merit. If several of us have the same intuition about Gollum's identity, then we might be able to lock this thing down right now.

I'm withholding my opinion on that question for the moment, because I don't want to influence others too early and skew the poll.

[tru1cy]

 withdraw hunt some orc 
 
I'll give my hobbit cousin room to speak

[Grundbegriff]

Gollum must be one of these players:

• coopasonic
• Newcastle
• pr0ner
• RMC
• triggercut

If we try to Scout him and fail, bb2112 will remain in captivity, but the hobbit bearing the Ring will still be able to achieve a definite win tomorrow morning.
If we try to Scout him and succeed, bb2112 will remain in captivity, but the hobbit bearing the Ring will still be able to achieve a definite win tomorrow morning.
Therefore, we should try to Scout him.

Bear in mind, too, that one of those folks is the final Servant of the Eye. Take that into account as you weigh your intuition and the evidence.

(One of those or redrun is Boromir, but that no longer matters. Boromir wins with Evil, and it's now certain that Evil will either lose to us or lose to Gollum.)

[Newcastle]

my thoughts on the others:

RMC - he's been kind of quiet; but i think he's the other freep


That leaves:

pr0ner - my gut is screaming that he's gollum; he's been playing quiet and in the shadows; he's around though...just my gut says gollum here. 85% certain of this i guess

triggercut - he's been playing very hard to read...for a while i thought he was gollum, but i am starting to lean toward boromir for now...he still very much could be gollum though (guessing boromir...slight chance he could be gollum)..i'd say 85% leaning to boromir; 15% gollum....the way he drew fire earlier i am guessing it was more out of a desire to make contact w/ his team mates of evil.

coop - he made some interesting comments during the game which made me look twice at him; if i had to bet, i'd say he's the last evil dude; just his comments have been very off this whole game (am guessing evil for him; say 90% certainty)

[rshetts2]

Gollum must be one of these players:

• coopasonic
• Newcastle
• pr0ner
• RMC
• triggercut

If we try to Scout him and fail, bb2112 will remain in captivity, but the hobbit bearing the Ring will still be able to achieve a definite win tomorrow morning.
If we try to Scout him and succeed, bb2112 will remain in captivity, but the hobbit bearing the Ring will still be able to achieve a definite win tomorrow morning.
Therefore, we should try to Scout him.

This is interesting. On the flip side, if we miss Gollum and scout the final servant, then evil has no one to put in a capture order tonite and they are removed from the equation. Scouting is sounding like a pretty good idea.

 WITHDRAW Hunt Some Orcs 
 

[Grundbegriff]

If you're Frodo and you decide to pass the ring to tru1cy, and instead of passing it back to you the next night he keeps it, you've found Gollum.

Use the grey, people.

i kind of like this idea; the big thing for us is to insure that we have a clean pass to a hobbit (no gollum) as the final play....one not named frodo.....

...hmm much to think about
/sticks some weed in his pipe
/wanders off for more coffee and a leg of lamb

Emphasis added

[Grundbegriff]

tread carefully my friends; i fear a great burden has been placed upon all our shoulders...

Lighten the load, eh?

[Grundbegriff]

The hobbits coming forward would help with that conundrum and best to do it before anyone dies so there are fewer questions. We'll still have too many hobbits and since Gandalf is unlikely to make it two more journeys, not enough scans to clear that up.

coopasonic is definitely not Gollum, for Gollum would not have been first on the block to advocate this. coop is probably Eowyn, judging by the walk.

[Grundbegriff]

...hmm much to think about
/sticks some weed in his pipe
/wanders off for more coffee and a leg of lamb

Emphasis added

I'm only up to page 6, but I think Newcastle is Gollum. He's hinting here through his usual roleplay elements that he's a citizen of the Shire. A Free Person would never emulate a hobbit in this game in order to draw fire, since the survival of Free Persons is the only way that we maintain the ability to Hunt Some Orc.

Only Gollum or a Servant of the Eye would hint at being a Hobbit. And since all genuine Hobbits have stepped forward uncontested, this roleplay is a nearly-forgotten seed that he never returned to water.

Thoughts?

[Grundbegriff]

I'm Fellowship, but have good reason to keep the remainder of my identity secret for the time being.

And what the heck was this?

[tru1cy]

Can the Servant make multiple captures if they have someone already?

[Grundbegriff]

Why is Newcastle getting a pass?

This is a good question, considering he just ignored what happens if Gollum gets the Ring, which I spelled out earlier. Add him to the list.

[Grundbegriff]

Frankly I can see no good reason for the Servants not to hunt last night, so it is likely they were blocked. Even though the odds are not great it was Gandalf they targeted, it is possible.

Good thoughts.

Again, nicely done.

[Newcastle]

...hmm much to think about
/sticks some weed in his pipe
/wanders off for more coffee and a leg of lamb

Emphasis added

I'm only up to page 6, but I think Newcastle is Gollum. He's hinting here through his usual roleplay elements that he's a citizen of the Shire. A Free Person would never emulate a hobbit in this game in order to draw fire, since the survival of Free Persons is the only way that we maintain the ability to Hunt Some Orc.

Only Gollum or a Servant of the Eye would hint at being a Hobbit. And since all genuine Hobbits have stepped forward uncontested, this roleplay is a nearly-forgotten seed that he never returned to water.

Thoughts?

actually i was just having fun...at the time...cant recall my thought process of why exactly...just seemed like a fun thing...lynch me if you want...dont bother me...except we wont free bubbles....and you will miss out on nailing gollum.

[Grundbegriff]

uhm, guys.....IF qantaga is sarumon...why wouldnt he self vote right now? he dies....before bubbles can even get here....gollum steals ring.....

My point being, we know qantaga is dead....lets give bubbles a bit of time to sumbit an order if needed...

And can you see Gollum making this argument rather than taking advantage of the shortsighted timing of the run on Qantaga?

The pseudo-hobbit roleplay combined with this move suggests that if Newcastle is in the set {Gollum, Servant}, he's the Servant.

[Grundbegriff]

1. Let's say that a Ringbearer passes it to Boromir....

2. Next problem: Boromir immediately realizes his corrupted-ness and gains access to communicating with the Shadow. At that point he can pass the ring directly to a remaining alive member of Team Shadow, n'est-ce pas? Even more diabolical--he can pass the ring to a Free Person, and the Freep becomes an immediate member of Team Shadow himself.

3. In any event, once Boromir gets the Ring, the Fellowship loses all chain of custody on the thing. Team Shadow has it, and even if Boromir holds it, when we send him scouting he still gets to pass the thing and can do so to a member of Team Shadow...or to a player they're reasonably sure is a Freep who will immediately join the badguys.

4. Worse--I see no rules to prevent Team Shadow--now that they've identified 3 hobbits/Gollum for sure--from passing the ring around willy-nilly to Free Peoples, converting them en masse to their side.

If cases #3 or #4, then I think if we have a hidden Hobbit, his remaining hidden may be our only protection from that scenario.

This sure looks as if triggercut is laying groundwork to reveal that "the other half" of his Fellowship+ identity is "hidden hobbit"-- not a bad way to engineer a pass to Gollum.

[Grundbegriff]

Rshetts, I'm actually a good candidate to send scouting after Qantaga if he's Saruman and the Ring is back in our possession. I am a Fellow, and not Boromir.

[Grundbegriff]

Rshetts, I'm actually a good candidate to send scouting after Qantaga if he's Saruman and the Ring is back in our possession. I am a Fellow, and not Boromir.

Previously you stated:

I'm Fellowship, but have good reason to keep the remainder of my identity secret for the time being.

I'm interested in what has changed?

[pr0ner]

pr0ner - my gut is screaming that he's gollum; he's been playing quiet and in the shadows; he's around though...just my gut says gollum here. 85% certain of this i guess

Nice try, but incorrect.

[Lagom Lite]

Hunt Some Orc (2) - rshetts2, Grundbegriff, triggercut, tru1cy, Newcastle


Majority is 6

Deadline is Sunday, October 30th at 9 p.m. Central European Time (GMT +1)

[rshetts2]

Interesting that the two people still voting "Hunt some orc" are Newcastle and Triggercut.

[redrun]

This last bit assumes we hunt orc today. If we scout Gollum today, it's a 1/3 shot for Evil to capture the ringbearer, but no Gollum to worry about.

The cost of this plan would be leaving bb2112 in captivity. He'd be unavailable to catch on the final morning.

I threw the hunt orc line out to see if we'd learn anything interesting from it. At this point I don't think we really will:

The Fellowship is carrying the Ring.

Mr Bubbles has been captured!

since it's Mr. Bubbles that has been captured, and the discussion has been based around BB2112 being in captivity.

The odds as I see them:

Don't free Mr. Bubbles, scout instead:

Hit Gollum or Servant on scout ~2/5 chance of doing so.
Remaining one has a 50/50 shot of stealing_the_ring/Capture_the_ringbearer.
(Odds of evil sucess down this path is 1/2)

Fail to hit Gollum or Servant on scout ~3/5 chance of doing so.
Each has a 50/50 shot of stealing_the_ring/Capture_the_ringbearer.
(Odds of evil success down this path are 15/20) ((1/2 + 1/2) - (1/2*1/2))

(Overall odds: ((2/5 * 1/2) + (3/5 * 15/20)) = 13/20 chance of evil success.)


Free Mr. Bubbles in such a way that both evil are unsure if a pass to Mr. Bubbles could have already happened:
Gollum/Servant each has a 1/3 chance of stealing_the_ring/Capture_the_ringbearer.
(1/3) + (1/3) - (1/3*1/3) = 5/9 -or- just over 11/20 chance of evil success.

So, either way, good is more likely to lose than win. Better round-cow odds with hunting orc to free Mr. Bubbles. If we felt we could identify an evil player to scout and were correct, odds would drop to 1/2 for evil success - but only a gain of about 6% over hunting orc this turn. I've got a couple of suspects that I think are guilty, but not for a 6% chance of improvement vs. a 20% worse chance if wrong.

I think think Tru1cy and Grund should put the final two votes in.
Since I have no idea of who is the ringbearer, I recommend Tru1cy then Grund.

[rshetts2]

Ok is there any reason to free Frodo? He doesnt have the ring and if it does get passed to him he will have to pass it immediately at chapter 7 or the fellowship loses. If we free Frodo and he gets the ring passed, then he must make another pass. Fortunately at that point all hobbits are available to take the ring.
You can pass the ring at any time with a PM so my question here is, if Frodo is passed the ring during chapter 7 can he pass it along or does that finalize the win for the Servants.

[Newcastle]

Interesting that the two people still voting "Hunt some orc" are Newcastle and Triggercut.

because hunting some orc and freeing bubbles opens up more avenues for a ring toss...i dont think scouting someone will yield the best results...what if we miss? then a ring toss is gonna happen somewhere between truicy & grund. Those are some stellar odds if you are evil (usiing evil here to include gollum). Freeing bubbles gives another avenue for them to toss the ring...hence the better play. IF we hit one...great....but they still get to strike back tonight...

If we had more misses and more margin for error; i'd be more interested in testing a few people...but since this is our last day......just a better play than a hail mary which could potentially net us 1 evil but not both. I'll take my bird in hand over 2 in the bush please.

[Newcastle]

/grabs his pipe
/drinks a sip of coffee
/takes a long inhale from the pipe
/exhales and puffs out shapes .... a rabbit, a boat, and a fuzzy bear

[Newcastle]

uhm, guys.....IF qantaga is sarumon...why wouldnt he self vote right now? he dies....before bubbles can even get here....gollum steals ring.....

My point being, we know qantaga is dead....lets give bubbles a bit of time to sumbit an order if needed...

And can you see Gollum making this argument rather than taking advantage of the shortsighted timing of the run on Qantaga?

The pseudo-hobbit roleplay combined with this move suggests that if Newcastle is in the set {Gollum, Servant}, he's the Servant.

/sounds buzzer
/in bob barker voice

"oh so sorry there grund; that is not the correct price....care to guess again?"