(Almost) Simple WW Game #2 - Game Over

[Newcastle]

Initial Pm from UNagi:

I composed this about a day ago, and then waited, and actually came back and added more and more to it. I'm sorry if it's really long. Please do try and read it all.


I'm sending this out to 3 people only. (Newcastle, Austin, and bb2112)
For Real.

So, here is the meat of it: I am the Seer

I scanned Lassr last night : Lassr is a wolf

and bear with me, this is a long ass PM (sorry), because I want to show a few things that 'follow' as a result of Lassr being Evil. (primarily, why you are getting this PM)


Ist) Please - if you are Human and don't trust me after your read this whole message... Do not go into the game thread and share that I sent this PM (I hope, obviously.)... If you feel you must - I beg of you to let me beg of you not to, and discuss it in PMs first.

Now, if one (or 2) of you is a wolf; Well, I've exposed myself and I'll be killed real soon.... Congrats. but there will be at least 1 (or 2) human(s) that will know that I shared this, and that the Seer is dead (and Lassr, a wolf).

Newcastle, you are probably my biggest 'leap of faith' in this whole thing (not as a wolf, but as someone that may not trust me). So, I hope you give this all a read and true consideration (and I hope to high heaven you aren't a wolf.)

2nd) Clearly, feel free to PM eachother and verify that I sent each of you the PM. PLEASE DON'T go asking other people (not one of the 3) if I sent them this PM. I really don't need wolves to learn about this PM, or who got some strange PM (you). Provided I haven't already sent this to a wolf, clearly.

If any of you find that creepy or intolerable - let's discuss it, and if we can remedy it. Obviously, I can't control you.

Mainly, as you will read below - I am willing to also bring Qantaga or Chaosraven in as "PM witness" to this claim. If one of you wanted more than just you 3 guys.
I'm eager to invite Qantaga, myself.

Also, I realize that I am asking for Newcastle and Austin to figuratively hold hands right now, when they seem unlikely. It's not by choice so much as what I see and feel to be the people that are Good (and not theohall), and it just so happens that it may be very nice to pivot this game around at this point of contention.

With bb2112, I know you were still looking at Autin and Newcastle, but I think once you read (and certainly if you come to learn and know) Lassr is evil in a re-read, you will agree that Newcastle and Austin are both likely just targets of the wolves, ala' Lassrs love for the option of the two.

So, this is how I got here:
After yesterday's scandal, I came away feeling that Austin and Newcastle may very well be Good. (I already thought Austin was.)

I re-read the thread, and decided to scan Lassr.

This is how I came to conclude that Austin and Newcastle were both people so likely 'Good' that I would bring them into my circle; since they were being made 'swap-targets' by the Wolf, Lassr.

Read here where Lassr is very much ready to test Austin, then when/if Austin is villager --> test triggercut or Newcastle next.
Lassr wrote:
Austin's move does not seem like a wolf move he would make IMHO. But it might be best to test him and if he does turn up village then look at his suspicions of Newcastle and triggercut.
I do feel like Newcastle or Austin would make a good first lynch though. Just not sure which direction to go first.


Yesterday (game), I PMed him, asking for help lynching triggercut. He told me:
Lassr wrote:
Just starting to get caught up. triggercut or Austin will get my vote.


So, I feel Austin and Newcastle both actually are Good from these reads, and of course a lot of just gut feel and reading of what's going on between many players, etc.

(When you re-read; ask, "Is Austin evil?" then ask, "how about Newcastle??") I think not.

bb2112 is harder for me to present some bulletproof case (not that the case for NC or A was) for, but:
just from this morning - bb2112 starts into Lassr a bit (and Remus)
bb2112 wrote:
Some interesting things here. Chaosraven provided the last vote. Lassr put Trig in the precarious position of it being 6 and 6. Remus doesn't participate in either of the top two candidates and wanted to string us along instead of providing a final vote. Seriously, at the point it was at, what could Austin or Trig possibly say that would sway you, Remus? It just seems like a wolfy move to cop out and not be part of a lynch.

bb2112 had some back-n-forth with Lassr that read like they were not teamed. (You will see it in your re-read)

I'm not as 'dead certain' here (as with Austin and Newcastle), but bb2112 and Qantaga are both very strongly leaning Good to me. I decided to include bb2112, first (I explain below)

There is a ton of stuff that Qantaga has done to try and question Lassr, and it reads legit to me. (just search on Qantaga author with keyword Lassr, or simply keep your eye out for it, in your re-read.)
Additionaly, in PMs to me (solicited by me) - he expressed (day 1) that Lassr was his top choice:
Qantaga wrote:
1. Lassr
2. triggercut
3. Someone in the {Remus, Chaos, RMC} group.
4. Newcastle

I don't know what to think of Austin, but I'm leaning good on him.

You're also a conundrum to me. I want you to be good, but I just don't know right now.



Originally, I picked Qantaga as the third player to send this PM to. Then it struck me that Qantaga was already inclined to vote for Lassr, and shouldn't need to share a scan with him now, in order to get help to lynch Lassr. So, I decided to bring bb2112 into the circle instead.

Again, I'm actually quite willing to bring Qantaga into this as well.

CR has a few things too, here is an example:
Chaosraven wrote:
Lassr wrote:
bb2112 wrote:
Going back over the Austin Seer Archives. Anyone who had the sense to ask who the other two people were in case Austin got lynched get a passing grade. The wolves probably wouldn't care because they already know the answers.

Really? You don't think the wolves would be interested in that info also?

Lassr


Miffed that he Fails on the bblitmus, lassr attempts to muddy the analysis


The above post also shows how bb2112 had not given Lassr any high marks in his analysis, and this is CR calling more attention to that.
(All while triggercut, Austin, and Newcastle are being considered for lynch)

This helps me like bb2112 and CR.

My good list right now is: Newcastle, Austin, Qantaga, bb2112, and CR.
This is after deep consideration of my Lassr scan, ,the triggercut lynch, and the El G kill, - and a few rereads, and some day 1 PM stuff; the latter being mostly with bb2112, very little with CR.


Personally, I know that I have shared this with 1 human, at the very least. (Because I have caught a wolf) So, I know if I die - one of you can report that the Seer is dead.

For you, you may think that I am a wolf, and that the other 2 people are wolves - and that we will get you to help us kill a Human Lassr. If that happens - it's all on me - and each and every one of you can describe the deed that I did (this post). I can't really say that's some great trade - but I think it would be an odd trade for me to make if I were a wolf.


I hope that all of you give this a good thinking over, and consider what I'm saying (And help me with the next best move).

In any case :: My deed is done, the die is cast.


My reads, other than the 5 I trust right now
theohall: I feel he's perhaps good... but even if he is, he would go nuts on this whole thing, and there is really no way I would trust bringing him in.
Mr Bubbles: he's been pretty short on words, but he's had some. Most of my suspision is from his hanging in the shadows a bit.
RMC: I can go more into this whole thing later, but there are a few things where he just seems to position himself for a number of misses on Newcastle, and Austin coming up (and he started and parked on triggercut, certainly not blaming him...)
Remus: I feel he's coming across wolf, pretty strong - given what I know (who I am, and how CR seems to be on to Lassr a little, etc), and Remus' general creepy lurking but strong feelings, etc.
Lassr: my scanned wolf

I think the 3 are likely Remus, RMC, and I know: Lassr.

So, I guess now I'd like to hear feedback. (and thank you for reading this whole damn thing, if ya did)

What say you?

(and ooooohhh boy, I hope I didn't just blow it.... in any case- I know that I have Lassr nailed and I have shared that with at the very least: 1 human)

[Newcastle]

Here's my response and conversation w/ him:

I wrote:

I am not sure if i believe you or not...but....erring on the side of caution:

dont bring in CR in the circle of trust. He sent me a few weird PM's.

I am going to think about this some. I am not sure what to make of it. I think Austin is a wolf and you screwed up there. But thats just me.

I'd be open to testing lassr.

*****

I am not sure if i believe you or not...but....erring on the side of caution:

dont bring in CR in the circle of trust. He sent me a few weird PM's.

I am going to think about this some. I am not sure what to make of it. I think Austin is a wolf and you screwed up there. But thats just me.

I'd be open to testing lassr.

OK. thanks for giving me the benefit of the doubt.

Tell me what you think. I don't want to make it too obvious that I am behind a Lassr lynch.
(or tell me if you'd rather not, until you learn more, via Lassr, etc.)

I am also pretty hot on Remus right now (he will likely be my scan, or RMC) - so I am actually OK if Remus ends up being lynched today. I just feel that a wolf will likely claim Seer today at N-1.

I am also thinking that maybe I should try and look like I am after Austin a bit - and I may ask Austin if he is OK with that. I'm trying not to be targeted tonight, obviously.

I'm OK putting a vote on Lassr, I just don't want to drive the whole thing.

well, i think let the driving to other people. We have a few days. I think Austin is on the chopping block. I can always go back to Remus...i mean when is it not fun to try to lynch remus right?

I'd be curious to see who votes for who. Lets see what happens and see if we can get a train on lassr naturally.

(more coming)

[bb2112]

My PM at 8:30 and his at 8:51 in response

These are probably the 2 best PM's between Unagi and I about discussing the plan to bring in the rest of the village through PM's. It was essentially my plan that Unagi decided he liked enough to run with it. Our biggest thought was it would help provide him cover. I guess that didn't work very well.

Ok. Based on some more thinking and the fact that you are open to it, I think Austin, NC and myself should all pick 2 people to contact and say we were contacted by the seer.

Pro:
1. It gives you some protection. Nobody we contact can be sure if we are lying and that we are not really the seer.
2. If one of us dies, then it gives the group a direction to hunt.
3. It will focus the village on Lassr to test to see if we are lying. I would think voting should go pretty quick.
4. When Lassr comes up Wolf, we will have pretty stong unity in the village.

Con: (I am not going to even talk about if you are a wolf - So please forgive me if I don't go into this line of reasoning. It just leads to madness. Besides, if you are, you get tested soon enough.)
1. Tips our hand to the wolves. (I'm going to assume that Austin and NC are not wolves. Again, madness.) However, what would the wolves do in this situation? Lassr could claim seer. I don't think anyone would believe it under duress.
2. The wolves go along with the flow and vote Lassr to try and stay hidden. No worse off than we are right now.
3. I really can't think of anything else, but I can't help thinking I'm missing something.

Anyway, I think there is a lot more to recommend the plan than to not do it.

However, I want to talk to you about what Remus just did. He voted for Lassr. Coincidence? I'm wondering if I should send him a PM asking what his thought process is? Or maybe NC should do it since RW would probably be less suspicious of him than me. My biggest fear is, if he is a wolf and he has been told by NC or Austin and is now trying to get in some last second brownie points. Or could it be he is really just a villager and is catching his stride? I notice he checked in after Austin, but that could be coincidence too. I don't like this, but I'm not sure if it should alter our plans or not. Either way, I want to make sure we think this all through before we start putting our plans in motion. Thoughts?

(By the way, I would have been much happier if you picked Q as your third instead of NC.)

I'm on the train, so won't type much.

Did you see the version of "the crafty plan" I sent Newcatle.
(basically its your idea fleshed out)

What do you think of the people I assigned to send and receive?

I think Remus is building cred , but I don't think he's been tipped off. (there is a chance he's not evil too)

I think I'm going to compose a PM at work this morning, and send it to the 3 of you, so we are all on the same page.
Austin replied that he was ready to help in any capacity (he could still be a wolf)

It's funny.
You wish I didn't include Newcastle (he finds you the best of group)
Newcatle wishes I didn't included Austin.
Austin is just focused on Remus, RMC, Lassr, and Theo.

I still haven't heard back from Newcastle, this morning. I feel like if we all want to do the crafty plan, he'd be somewhat obligated to play his role.

[Chaosraven]

You would have to figure that Unagi sent his PM to a Wolf, or among the collection of chain PM the wolves narrowed down the choice and got lucky. Most probable is Wolf sent direct, as the other way leaves too many open options (ie if bb austin and newc sent out 2 pm, if only 1 wolf in each of 2 and none in 3rd that leaves quite afew to choose from). I already think it's Newc and RMC. Remus was suspicious of Unagi as a Wolf behind the scenes.

[Newcastle]

here's the thing unagi...i'm skeptical of your claim.

However, i'd be open to getting Lassr lynched and we take it from there.

The problem i have is trusting austin here...but i guess would be willing to defer for now.

Next, i worry about being played. The what if unagi is a wolf w/ BB & austin. Since all of you have read wolfy to me at some points. You've seemed strange, austin, well you know how i feel bout austin. Finally BB leans the most as good in this game of the three of you.

Now the beauty of this, if you are a wolf. you just do the same thingg tomorrow. Find some fool and do the same thing...BUT if lassr comes up human, i can squeal tonight and blow this thing up. Hmmm.

Calculated risk you've taken.

Lets get Lassr lynched and then take it from there. We have 4 votes that can migrate that way. I think majority is 6. Shouldnt be too hard to get the final 2 i'd think.

****

here's the thing unagi...i'm skeptical of your claim.

However, i'd be open to getting Lassr lynched and we take it from there.

The problem i have is trusting austin here...but i guess would be willing to defer for now.

I fully expected you to be skeptical, clearly. And that made me struggle with going forward with the plan, but I'm glad I did.

I'm fine with getting Lassr lynched and taking it from there.

Also, one of the strengths of my plan (if I am right) is that it will provide a way for both you and Austin to find a little more faith in one another (should I live tonight).

(One of it's weaknesses is, if the wolves randomly kill me (even if I am right) you guys will likely all turn on eachother. So, that would sorta suck....)

Next, i worry about being played.

couple things.

First, I totally understand that. If I was in your shoes I would basically find myself wanting to put some faith in it, but I'd be annoyed to no end that I was being asked to.
Second, I feel the need to say that I'd really feel like a major ass if I was doing this to play you, following the recent history. I would not do it. You don't need to believe that, but it's true.

The what if unagi is a wolf w/ BB & austin. Since all of you have read wolfy to me at some points.

That is why I told 3 of you. After you see Lassr hang as a wolf (at some point, we will) - there are only 2 left, and it can't be Unagi w/ BB & austin. Each of you (You, BB, and Austin) have that same insurance going into this. Again, that's why I told 3 of you.

Additionally, I really nearly told Qantaga instead of bb2112. They were both equally very high in my trusted column after learning Lassr's guilt.

So, we could add him, guaranteeing everyone that they had a human-co-witness to this.

You've seemed strange,

I tried to play normal, and I was actually going after triggercut in honesty - perhaps with some added gusto - as I knew that I was actually probably better off if I was wrong and fought hard for it. The wolves would let me live a night, thinking they could get me lynched. Ala Remus West's push on me.... the other wolves, I bet will keep the whole Newcastle vs Austin argument alive until you are both misses.

austin, well you know how i feel bout austin.

his day 1 PM seemed way too 'look at me' for a wolf move, IMO. But I do get the points you've made about Austin's 'big-move' playstyle. It was when Lassr came up wolf that his entire "It's either Newcastle or Austin" angle shed the Good Light on you both.

Finally BB leans the most as good in this game of the three of you.

I actually totally agree with you, but - heh... I don't know about you - but that always then concerns me... I actually already told bb2112 this. (because I'm basically commited to this).... I feel that if I have blown this (with my big PM) that it would be bb2112 that tricked me.
And I could see Qantaga as being best supporting actor.... but - I don't feel that way - it's just my paranoia...

Now the beauty of this, if you are a wolf. you just do the same thingg tomorrow. Find some fool and do the same thing...BUT if lassr comes up human, i can squeal tonight and blow this thing up. Hmmm.

Exactly. That's one reason I felt I needed to tell at least 3. And I want to stress - I would be happy to add Qantaga - (although bb2112 has expressed that he would rather tell Qantaga himself, via PM, that bb2112 was contacted by the Seer, etc, etc...) - and with Qantaga added - you would be totally sure that at least 1 other human knew of my claim. I wanted to be sure of that too, and that is the other reason I wanted 3 - so that I could be sure a Human knew I told the 3 of you.

Calculated risk you've taken.

yep I'm nervous, if ya wanna know, but so far - your reaction and bb2112's have given me some faith (Austin hasn't picked it up yet)

Lets get Lassr lynched and then take it from there. We have 4 votes that can migrate that way. I think majority is 6. Shouldnt be too hard to get the final 2 i'd think.

bb2112 is asking me to think about having him PM some players (debatable if we should 'bait' those we think are evil, or try and appeal to those we don't) - and bb2112 would tell them that "he has been contacted by someone claiming Seer, and the Seer has caught Lassr".

I'm just now trying to figure out if we should do that. It's not a horrible idea.
(as always, let me know what you think.... I'll stop saying that - please assume it)

Now, we could do that with just CR and Qantaga, and see if bb2112 is killed in the night, (you had said that CR was giving you the creeps)

bb2112 also thinks maybe he should target the PM to those we think are evil (not sure if you are in agreement with those people being Remus and RMC and Mr Bubbles maybe, and maybe Theohall... but I think bb2112 leans towards them a bit too) (and you don't need to tell me right now)

Anyhow - clearly the idea there would be for bb2112 to perhaps get killed in the night, giving me a night where they don't take a swing on me.

He could also simply PM everyone with this information (well - not Lassr) and we see where it takes us (bb2112 being the only obvious target for the wolves at night)

bb2112 offering to do this gives me even more faith in the whole thing (again, unless I am 100% wrong here), but still not sure why he'd even bother with any of this, now that I think of it.

So, I'm thinking about that stuff right now.

****
I responded:

thanks for teh explanatory PM. Still unsure about it, but i think nabbing Lassr is the positive first step.

Have you thought that Lassr (as a wolf) would throw his partner under the bus? Partner being Austin?

When you talk to BB, i say let him contact 2 people. 1 whom gives you the wilies. The other we think of taking in the trust. Say he's been contacted and take it from there.

And why be afraid of playing me...its a game...and just a game. Yeah it might piss me off every now and then and i am sure it ticks people off in general who play here and there...but at the end of the day no one here is looking to do the eternal mind screw to anyone. Just a game.

Anyway, if youre playing me. Well played. I'll let my vote migrate toward Lassr later. I'm letting it explore some venues for now. His reaction to my RMC vote is interesting i think.

****

Have you thought that Lassr (as a wolf) would throw his partner under the bus? Partner being Austin?

I did think about it.

It's the places where Lassr has made it clear that he's willing to miss on '1 of you' and then test 'the other'. If he tossed a Partner-Austin under the bus, then there would be no point to make it clear that a Villager Result on Austin would have him looking back at You. That would be a dead-end... It's too early to just toss a partner to the grinder (certainly they will toss eachother's name in the mud a bit - I think RMC may have done that with Lassr just now, in reply to that exchange your vote started) - I feel Lassr is doing it to get a sequence of misses. If it was an Austin-Wolf that was ultimately lynched by Lassr's pushing, then he would not be able to go back and test you - he would have basically Cleared You - and he doesn't want to do that.

That's my take on it.

I certainly could be wrong, but I will say that the same thing that made me "clear Austin" was the Lassr scan, before that I wasn't as sold as I sounded.

Given bb2112's thoughts and PM's on some additional plans - I feel he's not a wolf. (A wolf would say "Whoa, OMG - let's kill Lassr - and just sorta play on, and kill me tonight")

You're not acting the way a wolf would with being contected by the Seer - So I really now feel you are certainly not a wolf too.

At this point, I think Austin is the only risk in my 3 people group - and I will be honest - I still don't think he's a wolf. (clearly... CLEARLY on me, if he is)

Austin was at N-2 and there was a lot of momentum headed his way yesterday.
He had a big chance to claim Seer. Instead he told us:

Whatever. Agree with my play or not, at least we have something to work with on a Day 1. Enjoy your gift. It's all legit info, which you will have to put into context and figure out if it has any value. When I am dead and gone and proven, the village has something that may be useful.

You can take my weighing of the evidence with many grains of salt.

That's just my take on that.

When you talk to BB, i say let him contact 2 people. 1 whom gives you the wilies. The other we think of taking in the trust. Say he's been contacted and take it from there.

And why be afraid of playing me...its a game...and just a game. Yeah it might piss me off every now and then and i am sure it ticks people off in general who play here and there...but at the end of the day no one here is looking to do the eternal mind screw to anyone. Just a game.

I hear ya, and agree- but I still wouldn't have done it to you as a play.



Here is the latest stuff that bb2112 (his idea to split the message between the 3 of you sending to the 6 others) and I have been thinking about. I told him that I wasn't so sure you would actually get behind this idea: but the more I think about this - it's actually kinda a neat idea, and I want to run it by you (and then also, good ol' Austin too) - as it really has a lot of advantages.

The crafty plan
bb2112 send the below PM to {Qantaga and CR}:
Austin sends the below PM to {Remus and RMC}:
Newcastle sends the below PM to {Theohall and Mr Bubbles}:

I was contacted by the Seer today, and he has given me the following information and instructions, and I was asked to pass it on:

Lassr is a wolf. At N-1 he will very likely claim Seer. You, and everone but Lassr, are being told this information. Please do not question the person who sent you this PM for any more information. Also - If someone else asks you for more information on what you were told in a PM - DO NOT GIVE THEM ANYTHING, wait for the results on Lassr.
If Lassr turns out to be Human, Each And Every One of you players can freely expose this PM at night fall. Additionally, the person who is passing this information on, would be in a position to expose me.
- The Seer

I plan to follow this request today.

This does a number of interesting things.

1) If one of you dies in the night, we may have some nice and narrow information on who was wanting to silence their Seer's mouthpiece.
2) If I die, the 3 of you may then have caught a wolf in (bb2112, Newcastle, Austin)... (maybe not, clearly)
3) Each player (accept Lassr) will have been given a chance to counter the claim, not that it matters at this stage, and I don't think any wolf will do it.
4) This gives everyone the pre-knowledge that Lassr is an exposed wolf and the Seer expects the counter claim, pre-emptively from his caught wolf, it gives Lassr very little wiggle room.

This should result in everyone basically coming into the thread and getting Lassr to N-1, where he himself would then claim Seer, I am guessing
Now, everyone was just told the Seer directed this lynch, so that would be pretty hard for Lassr to deal with, I would think.


So, that's the super crafty plan (I sorta worked on the idea that bb2112 had given me)

I actually kinda like it.

Obviosly, it hinges on all 3 of you guys being willing to do it and being Good, etc.

Talk with you more tomorrow.

[RMC]

You would have to figure that Unagi sent his PM to a Wolf, or among the collection of chain PM the wolves narrowed down the choice and got lucky. Most probable is Wolf sent direct, as the other way leaves too many open options (ie if bb austin and newc sent out 2 pm, if only 1 wolf in each of 2 and none in 3rd that leaves quite afew to choose from). I already think it's Newc and RMC. Remus was suspicious of Unagi as a Wolf behind the scenes.

So by this reasoning, NC is the wolf in the trio. And I think you are right one of the three has to be a wolf.

I am not the third wolf, but no one will believe that from me.

So who should we vote for NC, as the wolf that was trusted? I am still not sure of Austin myself, but I have not been very good at picking wolves lately...

So I am willing to vote Austin or NC. I think BB is a villager... Not sure on the other two at all.

<shrug>

[Newcastle]

Thats pretty much the end of the personal messages between Unagi & I. Didnt cherry pick anything just plopped everything chronologically. Our conversation started Sunday morning at some point. I can provide time stamps if you guys really want em.

The rest of the communications was on a group mail sent within the circle. I had a few other PM's between Unagi & I but that was more discussing the particulars of the plan. I'd be happy to share those, but i dont think those shed any light on the situation at hand.

[Newcastle]

All three of you have finally picked up the main PM and responded.

I am sending this PM to all three of you at once - so we are all on the same page.

The design of the below plan is to yeild the most information and provide me the most protection.

Before we act on the plan - I clearly need to know if everyone is "on board' with the plan, and will do their part.

If not, we need to change the plan.

The Plan
bb2112 is being assigned: Qantaga and Chaosraven (and Austin)

Austin is being assigned: Remus and RMC (and Unagi and Newcastle)

Newcastle is being assigned: Theohall and Mr Bubbles (and bb2112)

The plan is for you to send Only the below message to your 2 assigned players - and we see what happens.

I was contacted by the Seer today, and he has given me the following information and instructions, and I was asked to pass it on:

Lassr is a wolf. At N-1 he will likely claim Seer. You, and everyone but Lassr, are being told this information.
Lassr will be told by his partners.
Please do not question the person who sent you this PM for any more information. Also - If someone else asks you for more information on what you were told in a PM - DO NOT GIVE THEM ANYTHING, wait for the results on Lassr.
If Lassr turns out to be Human, Each And Every One of you players can freely expose this PM at night fall. Additionally, the person who is passing this information on, would be in a position to expose me. (and you, them)
- The Seer

I plan to follow this request today, please don't contact me for more information - or others.

I think this plan does a number of things. First it leverages the fact that I've (perhaps successfully) managed to trust 3 people and share this all with them.


1) If one of you dies in the night, we may have some nice and narrow information on who was wanting to silence their "Seer's mouthpiece".
2) If I die, the 3 of you may then have caught a wolf in (bb2112, Newcastle, Austin)... (maybe not, clearly)
3) Each player (accept Lassr) will have been given a chance to counter the claim, not that it matters at this stage, and I don't think any wolf will do it.
4) This gives everyone the pre-knowledge that Lassr is an exposed wolf and the Seer expects the counter claim, pre-emptively from his caught wolf, it gives Lassr very little wiggle room.

This should result in everyone basically coming into the thread and getting Lassr to N-1, where he himself would then claim Seer, I am guessing
Now, everyone was just told the Seer directed this lynch, so that would be pretty hard for Lassr to deal with, I would think.


Are you on board?

[Newcastle]

personal PM between the two of us:

in the super crafty plan, it leaves you exposed. there are 9 people in that chain (one of us + 2 contacts). Say it somehow blows up and one of each of the group exposes it. That means the three senders have been exposed. Once that happens the 2nd receiver will say "hey i was contacted also'. So that means it will show 9 people in the daisy chain, with you being out. Wolves will pounce on you. Best safeguard probably is to have you pretend to be one of the "contactees" and remove 1 person from the list of communication.

That's not a bad idea. But here is what the will know.
1) they will BOTH either get the PM from 1 of you
2) they may get the PM from 2 different people.

I think if they get the PM from 2 people - (say, 1 wolf hears from you - another wolf hears from bb2112) - I think they may guess that One of you is the Seer and the other is the 1 guy the Seer felt he could trust.

It's unlikely for the wolves to think that the Seer trusted a whole bunch of players with his name. (I'm just a fool!)

Here is what I did to counter that problem (in my mind)

One, I expressly ask everyone to sit on the info they were just told and not pester people for more information until the Lassr lynch is complete - after that people could (but they wont) feel free to expose everything - should Lassr turn up Human.

I think most people should honor that - and that the wolves may be the only ones that put up a huge protest when this thing is brought to their attention.

I'm kinda excited to see how the game 'reacts' to this.

Anyhow - I think we should all probably try and PM as a group of 4 maybe, to keep us all on the same page.

I sent me "the plan" PM - before I read this, so we may have overlapped a little.

[bb2112]

Sunday Evening. 10:15 PM When I first came up with the idea to PM the village before we fleshed it out. Gives some of his thoughts on various villagers.

I'm wondering if I should approach a couple of people through PM and say that I have been contacted by the seer and instructed to vote Lassr.

My first thought is not right now.

First, never theohall, who would announce it. I think you would agree. (and I'm in no way totally convinced he's good)

For the others that I do heavily suspect as evil; Remus, RMC and then Mr B and to a lesser degree theohall (although those last two are very nearly at the same level to me) -- I really strongly want to keep them in the dark right now. I don't want them creating a counter move. I'd love to have 2 tomorrow morning (man, I hate when I start thinking like I'm figuring it out - that's when I start to doubt myself.)

I do feel there is a very great (why wouldn't they??) chance that any wolf that's brought to N-1 will claim seer.

Majority is 6.

We have 4 right now (as long as Austin gets on board.... and really, the little sneak, how could he not get on board.)

So, maybe in a day or so... (or less if things are not moving well) Qantaga could be maybe someone that we have you contact and say you were contacted by the Seer.

However, as I said in my main PM, I am not sure that we would need Qantaga swayed or convinced into it.



CR is also someone I would consider for that. However, I should point out that Newcastle expressed concerns to me including CR in the PM (although what we are talking about is once removed... )

I think we look at this as our insurance policy.

If things turn bad, or some claim of seer has something move us away from Lassr (or Remus, because I would actually be OK with him being tested by lynch), maybe that's when we have you PM those two.

We can develop this as the next day transpires.

Until then, certainly don't do anything that we don't agree on (please. )

[Newcastle]

Summary of his conversation w/ Austin:

Austin has replied to me on the main PM:
Just waiting to hear from him on The Plan

update: Just as I went to send this - Austin did replied (just to me). I pasted his Reply at the end of all this - and I have Replied to it at the bottom too.


Austin - please reply now to all of us (Unagi, Newcastle, and bb2112)

Also - I am going to shorten "The Seer" message a little


Just to share - Austin has replied to me this morning (last one was 2 hours ago) - I am sharing his PMs (and my replies) below.

Well you saw my list.

Lassr, Remus, RMC, theo.

What would you like me to do? Claim the seer told me Lassr? Just casually move toward Lassr; the ground work is already there and we have a um. . . history.

The good thing is that IF Lassr = wolf then this is not Unagi, Newcastle, BB all pulling something with me

I'm riding the train into work.
I plan to send the three of you a PM from work.

I think our best plan is to have You tell 2 people, Newcatle 2, and BB 2 ; a very specific message that I provide.

More in a bit.

I pray you aren't a wolf.
Out of the three of you, your reply was the most wolfy. :-p

But I've had most of yesterday night with a ton of back n forth with both of them

In fairness, the way I hooked Lassr in the infamous PM game was by acting ultra suspicious of him. So, that's a bit more my wolf MO. (If you're a wolk, I'm going to be so upset for trusting you, oh the drama! - that sort of thing)

Frankly, I'm just a bit tired out from this game. I screwed up a couple things and it hasn't gone the way I envisioned. I have not even bothered with the math on how many misses we have left.

Why not just claim that the seer contacted me and vote Lassr. If he's human, you die, if he's a wolf you gain cred. (Not proof) We keep quiet about your identity for now though. What am I missing?

Austin's Reply to "The Plan"

Struggling with my Internet today. It is awful. It's like 45 second windows every 4 minutes.

In short, I am in. That said, if we are all villagers, the wolves will each receive the same PM, albeit from at least 2 different people. So wolf A and B revive Austin PM's and wolf C receives BB PM. Does this matter? (not thinking much yet an need to catch my window)

Here is my reply to that, Austin:

Yes, there is a reasonable chance that Wolf1 hears from You - while Wolf2 hears from Newcastle.

My hope is such: They feel that the Seer trusted 1 player with this information (not 2 or 3) - but they split up who should tell who.

My hope is that the wolves thinks 1 of the 2 is the real Seer.

[Newcastle]

PM within the circle:

question on safeguards: i see you having us send to another person (austin supposed to send to unagi & newcastle). How is that suppose to work if uncovered. I think i understand it, just want to walk it through.

If this hits the shitstorm...what do we do? Each claim the following:
newcastle - i got my PM from Austin
Austin - i got my PM from BB
BB - i got my PM from newcastle

That how its suppose to work? Ok that leaves a lot of false trails, no one can spot the genesis. Is every player covered...except Lassr of course. Should we exclude anyone? Or make sure everyone gets it?

What you described is basically how I see it - if, as you say - we are forced into some strange shitstorm on this.

I seriously would like to not have people discuss openly about who sent what to whom. (And I think after Lassr is lynched, people will know they shouldn't press the person that told them).

The alternate idea would be this:
If forced to: Maybe Each of you says that they were contacted by the seer (and therefor, we don't pretend that Austin sent Newcastle the PM at all) - and that only I need to pretend I was sent one. (that being from Austin)

Maybe we wait until there is a shitstorm, then we re-group and decide what route we should take.

[Newcastle]

From Mon AM. As we got closer to releasing it:

People are not going to keep quiet. They will talk. We should plan & expect it. We should also probably roll out this plan sooner rather than later. Since the deadline is 3 days aways...people are going to want to discuss it. I think unless there are any more objections...Unagi send us the final text, and austin lead the charge in PMs, then we go from there.

+1 We need to get this out today. Someone will Newcastle it (see what I did there) and blow it up, we just have to be adament. Test Lassr and let's see what happens. Don't try to overly engage. I know if I was not on the inside I would try to poke holes in this and badger you into giving more info. Just hold strong. Pretty soon the only recourse will be to test Lassr. I think Q and Remus are already leaning that way. If Austin, NC and I also join in that is already 5 out of 6 votes. We should leave Unagi to either deal the last vote, or stay off the vote as he sees fit.

I am going to be following on this info today. please don't contact me or others for more information.

Please help me with the green text. I think this will cause someone receiving a text from me to go straight to the forums.

Also, I think you should leave off the part where you say don't contact me. I know I would ignore it and be put off by it. Let them contact you again, just say you have nothing else to add and we need to test Lassr today. If he is not a wolf, then we can go from there. Be consistent, and be firm.

****

One little thing.

I think the 3 of you should certainly NOT pretend that you got the PM from one of the other 2.

You 3 are the Seer-proxy. Don't need to muddy things.

And - you guys are just sworn to be secretive about who you were told to send to.


I can hide in that.

[Newcastle]

to note above...also what pressed me a bit and realized we had to get this out NOW. Was the fact that BUbbles had just voted for me. I realized we had to get this moving right away to give max time for people to discuss and shift their votes as needed. i didnt expect Lassr to go down that quick. I really thought this would blow up and we'd have blowback in teh thread questioning the veracity of the seer claim.

[bb2112]

Sorry guys for dumping all this info on you. But you need to sift through it.

I'm going to shut up for a while and let you guys catch up. If you have any specific questions, I would be more than happy to answer them.

I will post my thoughts later after people have a chance to digest things.

[Newcastle]

Yeah i am going to shut up. I have a few ideas, but will wait to see a more full on discussion than sharing what i think. I'll be happy to put time stamps ont eh PM's if people request it. Or dig through more.

Good news is: we only have 2 wolves to go

Bad news: we lost our seer,

Good news: high odds that there is a wolf in the following: austin, BB, Newcastle

Bad news: could have been a lucky strike on Unagi:

Cynically good news: no one can spoof the seer eh? (yeah its cynical, black thought thinking...but its a bright point right? so at least we wont be confused there)

[theohall]

Okay... When Newcastle sent me a PM about the Seer contacting him. He never mentioned Unagi's name. Which of the three of you was giving out Unagi's name in the PMs you sent? From what I have seen so far, that appears to be Austin which should put his head on the chopping block.... Again.

[Austin]

Okay... When Newcastle sent me a PM about the Seer contacting him. He never mentioned Unagi's name. Which of the three of you was giving out Unagi's name in the PMs you sent? From what I have seen so far, that appears to be Austin which should put his head on the chopping block.... Again.

No one gave out Unagi's name. READ!

edit: I emailed RMC and Remus. My emails were almost exactly the same as the other two. Pay attention. Unagi was never mentioned by anyone. This is why bb, Newc, and I are the top suspects. HELLO? Reading?

[Qantaga]

I've got a lot of catching up to do...

I've been skimming, but I've got to go back and do a much more thorough read-through.

[triggercut]

[bb2112]

Just read Triggercuts tag line. I'm just glad I was not drinking milk at the same time.

[Qantaga]

Now that Unagi is dead, that leaves one of two things:

1. One of us three is a wolf.
2. The wolves compared notes. They probably got the note from two of the three of us, and decided to go in a different direction and they got lucky with Unagi.

I think number one is probably more likely.

While I agree that number one is more likely, we shouldn't forget number two in our discussions.

Austin: RMC and Remus
bb2112: Qantaga and Chaos
Newcastle: theohall and Mr Bubbles

That would tend to (although certainly not definitively) eliminate those particular pairs [RMC/Remsu] [Qantaga/Chaos] [theohall/Bubbles] as wolfy partners.

[Newcastle]

Our PM's should have been sent individually...ie i sent 1 to theohall with the text and then sent 1 to Bubbles.

The recipients should not have been able to cross reference w/ each other by being able to look at the PM and go "oh newcastle also sent this PM to theo/bubbles".

[Austin]

Our PM's should have been sent individually...ie i sent 1 to theohall with the text and then sent 1 to Bubbles.

The recipients should not have been able to cross reference w/ each other by being able to look at the PM and go "oh newcastle also sent this PM to theo/bubbles".

Correct. I sent a PM to RMC and one to Remus. RMC read his and never responded nor posted. I WEIGH THIS HEAVILY! Okay that did not work out on Trig, but maybe on Newc. RMC has been pretty quiet but I do not know his MO.

[Qantaga]

Our PM's should have been sent individually...ie i sent 1 to theohall with the text and then sent 1 to Bubbles.

The recipients should not have been able to cross reference w/ each other by being able to look at the PM and go "oh newcastle also sent this PM to theo/bubbles".

What I mean is after the fact.

Example:

If RMC gets a PM from Austin and theohall gets a PM from you (Newcastle), they know there is a more convoluted plot at hand. They then compare notes and look to kill someone other than Austin and Newcastle.

If RMC and Remus both get a PM from Austin, they're left to wonder if Austin is the seer (concocting a "the seer contacted me" scheme) or if there is a third party, thus perhaps choosing to kill Austin and not look for a third party.

[bb2112]

I will confirm I sent my PM's out individually as well.

[Newcastle]

Our PM's should have been sent individually...ie i sent 1 to theohall with the text and then sent 1 to Bubbles.

The recipients should not have been able to cross reference w/ each other by being able to look at the PM and go "oh newcastle also sent this PM to theo/bubbles".

What I mean is after the fact.

Example:

If RMC gets a PM from Austin and theohall gets a PM from you (Newcastle), they know there is a more convoluted plot at hand. They then compare notes and look to kill someone other than Austin and Newcastle.

If RMC and Remus both get a PM from Austin, they're left to wonder if Austin is the seer (concocting a "the seer contacted me" scheme) or if there is a third party, thus perhaps choosing to kill Austin and not look for a third party.

we kind of anticipated something like that would happen. Or at least i did. one of the flaws in the plan, but we'd hoped we had enough safeguards in place to hide that track back to Unagi.

[bb2112]

Now that Unagi is dead, that leaves one of two things:

1. One of us three is a wolf.
2. The wolves compared notes. They probably got the note from two of the three of us, and decided to go in a different direction and they got lucky with Unagi.

I think number one is probably more likely.

While I agree that number one is more likely, we shouldn't forget number two in our discussions.

Austin: RMC and Remus
bb2112: Qantaga and Chaos
Newcastle: theohall and Mr Bubbles

That would tend to (although certainly not definitively) eliminate those particular pairs [RMC/Remsu] [Qantaga/Chaos] [theohall/Bubbles] as wolfy partners.

Even though I thought of this as a possibility, I just think that occams razor suggests one of us three is a wolf. But this is when you throw Mara Jade in my face again.

But by all means, go on. I would like to be very careful today and make sure we sort this out and get it right.

[Chaosraven]

Now that Unagi is dead, that leaves one of two things:

1. One of us three is a wolf.
2. The wolves compared notes. They probably got the note from two of the three of us, and decided to go in a different direction and they got lucky with Unagi.

I think number one is probably more likely.

While I agree that number one is more likely, we shouldn't forget number two in our discussions.

Austin: RMC and Remus
bb2112: Qantaga and Chaos
Newcastle: theohall and Mr Bubbles

That would tend to (although certainly not definitively) eliminate those particular pairs [RMC/Remsu] [Qantaga/Chaos] [theohall/Bubbles] as wolfy partners.

most likely no pairs, as lassr as the third they would not know the other four plus unagi... Choice of Five to eat unagi. Even with the reamining Pair being in those 6, they would have a set of three Unknown to eat seer. So it is most probable; one wolf of bb,austin,newc and one in the six. Next would be two wolves in bb, newc, austin.

[Chaosraven]

Factors I want to examine: hesitation, response, voting

[Remus West]

First off, sorry for sending out night PMs. I logged on and saw the PM from Austin, replied with something very much along the lines of "I can do that" since I had already voted Lassr that day. Then I read the write up in thread and got excited and PM Qantaga - whom I feel pretty trustworthy based off his analysis of Lassr on day 1 - and Austin - who had contacted me regarding the whole thing, basically a second reply to the initial PM asking that I vote Lassr. None of those PMs should have been sent as it was night. It didn't even cross my mind at the time. Sorry.

As for wolves, I agree we need to look at Austin, bb2112, and Newcastle.

As I was pointing out yesterday though, Bubbles actions seem off to me so I'd look there as well. That said, Unagi seemed off to me as well so I think the instinct pretty good with regards to Bubbles since Unagi seems to have been playing a non-villager role. I want to go back and reread yesterday for Bubbles posts and actions then I'm going to try and make it through the massive wall of PMs you guys put up to see what I think of the triumvirate.

[Mr Bubbles]

You dirty hairball.. You are barking up the wrong tree.

[Newcastle]

I believe mostly everyone has checked in. I am also assuming there is some conversations going on via PM's. I wanted to toss this thought out there.......

So lets look at this differently........


Wolves got say…2 PM’s from various sources. They are able to cut the pool of potential seers down to 6 of 11. (-3 wolves and -2 Pm senders)


Now they also have 3 more significant clues they can use

1. They can analyze the message and look at tone and print. And wonder who would craft such a message. They could look at how the seer is speaking.

2. They could also look at the whole scope of the plan. At how calculated the plan is/was. They could look at the people sending it 2/3 of (newc, BB & Austin). And perhaps they discount those 2 from making such a plan. They then can peel away 3 other people from the pool because they know its not them. That brings the suspect pool to 6.

Now it gets fun. They can then eliminate certain people from this pool in terms of planning and foresight as seer in terms of capabilities to pull off such a move.

Would theohall do such a move? -Sorry Theo but no.
Would Bubbles do such a move? Again no. Not that much of a planner
Would RMC do such a move? No
Would Remus? Quite Possibly
Would CR? Quite Possibly
Would Newcastle? Probably not
Would BB? Possibly since he helped fashion it.
Would Austin? Maybe
Would Qantaga? Probably not.

3. They then could have asked: Who would have scanned Lassr? Who would have done such a thing? Who was acting differently to Lassr? Who suspected him?



What I am saying, is they could have analyzed the situation and have easily winnowed the field of suspects as to who the seer was…despite our best attempts at subterfuge.

Its something to think about. This might seem a craven attempt at saving my skin. It isn’t. I just don’t want us to hit a death spiral. I have to look differently at this. If I go, we lose a villager and edge closer to the abyss. What if I am wrong about Austin? And he is indeed innocent (though I still think he is evil). Say I am voted first, then he is and we are both innocent? The village is really in a bind. Do you question BB then?

So despite our initial glance at the situation. I think its VERY possible they could have analyzed the situation and winnowed down the potential seer pool to a small number and then tossed a chance.

There is a chance that there is no mole within the circle.

Now if we buy this approach, we can then turn the tables on the wolves and ask this question: Who amongst the remaining people and pool of suspects would be able to ferret out such information?

Think about it.

[Newcastle]

I believe mostly everyone has checked in. I am also assuming there is some conversations going on via PM's. I wanted to toss this thought out there.......

So lets look at this differently........


Wolves got say…2 PM’s from various sources. They are able to cut the pool of potential seers down to 6 of 11. (-3 wolves and -2 Pm senders)


Now they also have 3 more significant clues they can use

1. They can analyze the message and look at tone and print. And wonder who would craft such a message. They could look at how the seer is speaking.

2. They could also look at the whole scope of the plan. At how calculated the plan is/was. They could look at the people sending it 2/3 of (newc, BB & Austin). And perhaps they discount those 2 from making such a plan. They then can peel away 3 other people from the pool because they know its not them. That brings the suspect pool to 6.

Now it gets fun. They can then eliminate certain people from this pool in terms of planning and foresight as seer in terms of capabilities to pull off such a move.

Would theohall do such a move? -Sorry Theo but no.
Would Bubbles do such a move? Again no. Not that much of a planner
Would RMC do such a move? No
Would Remus? Quite Possibly
Would CR? Quite Possibly
Would Newcastle? Probably not
Would BB? Possibly since he helped fashion it.
Would Austin? Maybe
Would Qantaga? Probably not.
Would Unagi? Yup

3. They then could have asked: Who would have scanned Lassr? Who would have done such a thing? Who was acting differently to Lassr? Who suspected him?



What I am saying, is they could have analyzed the situation and have easily winnowed the field of suspects as to who the seer was…despite our best attempts at subterfuge.

Its something to think about. This might seem a craven attempt at saving my skin. It isn’t. I just don’t want us to hit a death spiral. I have to look differently at this. If I go, we lose a villager and edge closer to the abyss. What if I am wrong about Austin? And he is indeed innocent (though I still think he is evil). Say I am voted first, then he is and we are both innocent? The village is really in a bind. Do you question BB then?

So despite our initial glance at the situation. I think its VERY possible they could have analyzed the situation and winnowed down the potential seer pool to a small number and then tossed a chance.

There is a chance that there is no mole within the circle.

Now if we buy this approach, we can then turn the tables on the wolves and ask this question: Who amongst the remaining people and pool of suspects would be able to ferret out such information?

Think about it.

[Newcastle]

To sum up. They could have analyzed the situation from a pool of 6/7 candidates. They then could have tossed a few people by the way side to up their chances to say 4 people and then took a shot.

[Remus West]

Is there a reason why you quoted yourself right after in order to make what amounts to a double post?

[Newcastle]

Is there a reason why you quoted yourself right after in order to make what amounts to a double post?

yup. I needed to make a small edit....added "Would Unagi? Yup"

[theohall]

Just looking at a few things:

1) Voting record: Newcastle, RMC, Qantaga, theohall

These four did not vote for Lassr. Newcastle, via PM, and Qantaga publicly both asked to hold off on a lynch to attempt to gather data. This makes neither of them a likely wolf. I held off the kill vote for this very reason. This makes me suspect RMC from that list. I, however, should still be high on everyone's list for not killing a wolf and repeatedly mis-reading and mis-interpreting crap. I have seen Qantaga play as if he were completely being helpful when a wolf, so that still has to be a consideration IF RMC comes up villager.

2) Austin and bb2112 are early enough in the vote, I doubt they are wolves. (yes, I changed my mind on Austin after re-reading).

3) Remus West being first to vote Lassr makes him look rather innocent as well.

4) Mr. Bubbles casting the kill vote when there were enough posts asking us to wait, makes me suspect him as the other wolf. It looks like a wolf trying to cover his butt by killing his pack-mate and make himself seem innocent.

So... it looks to me like none of the three Unagi chose are wolves. While the two most likely suspects are Mr Bubbles and RMC.

That is all I have.

[Chaosraven]

So any quiet ones on that list? Get them out of the way quickly; Qantaga better start talking!

Qantaga better start talking!

You are confusing quantity with contribution. You know better, which makes me instantly suspicious of your motivations.

No Votes (4): Bubbles, Remus West, triggercut, Qantaga

Qantaga posts since the one above: Zero.

<Lassr dangles a raw piece of meat in front of the cage>

[Chaosraven]

The Plan
bb2112 is being assigned: Qantaga and Chaosraven (and Austin)

Austin is being assigned: Remus and RMC (and Unagi and Newcastle)

Newcastle is being assigned: Theohall and Mr Bubbles (and bb2112)

The plan is for you to send Only the below message to your 2 assigned players - and we see what happens.

So the three of you had this PM?

The full assignment?