(Almost) Simple WW Game #2 - Game Over

[El Guapo]

Dudes, Newcastle was such a Good Guy!

Newcastle, although I share your frustration, you shouldn't have self voted.

people should have actually...ya know participated and tried...maybe i wouldnt have self-voted then

Yes, it's totally their fault.

[Chaosraven]

Interesting how in a game where PM are allowed by the living during the Day, the Dead post in thread at Night...

[Austin]

First wolves, now ghosts! Can I just move to a new village?

Thanks to Q for the "game" reminder. I do get grumpy or frustrated sometimes and have to A) remember it's a game, B) be humble and happy or the victors when it's not me. We still have one miss. I am not sure I can let go of bb now though. I am torn. Gut says he's innocent, logic says he's a wolf.

[Chaosraven]

One miss?

[bb2112]

First wolves, now ghosts! Can I just move to a new village?

Thanks to Q for the "game" reminder. I do get grumpy or frustrated sometimes and have to A) remember it's a game, B) be humble and happy or the victors when it's not me. We still have one miss. I am not sure I can let go of bb now though. I am torn. Gut says he's innocent, logic says he's a wolf.

And I am in exactly the same place with you. I still have a hard time believing your play day 1 was a wolfy play, but at the same time, I have to believe you are a wolf in sheep's clothing. I keep coming back to, logic dictates that one of us three is a wolf. NC wasn't. I'm not. So that leaves... you.

If you are not a wolf, they must be laughing their heads off right now.

[bb2112]

One miss?

We already had this conversation. They count it as one free miss without the game ending. I like to think of it more like 2 strikes left.

[Austin]

If we miss tomorrow we must hit the next day.

If bb and I are both villagers, we might be screwed.

[Chaosraven]

Gotcha, we can afford one miss.

[stessier]

As yet another day dawns, the village is greeted to the glorious smell of fresh biscuits baking - which is troubling as the town is known for it's horrid cooking. A curious group walks around the square and finds a trail of sporks and napkins leading to a hut with the oven still on. Looks like the wolves were in the mood for an extra crispy bucket of raven and had to leave before the biscuits were finished.

Chaosraven is Dead!

It is Day. Villagers, do your thing!

Census

1. El Guapo - lost his ribs
2. Bubbles
3. Chaosraven - finger lickin' good
4. bb2112
5. Remus West
6. Lassr - WOLF
7. Austin
8. Theo
9. Trig - lynched
10. RMC
11. Unagi - traditional unadon takeout
12. Newcastle - suicide
13. Qantaga ( )

Majority is 4.

Deadline is Wednesday, July 11 at Noon Central Time.

[Austin]

I've got nuthin'.

[Austin]

 Remus West 
 


Still debating bb.

[bb2112]

1. They can analyze the message and look at tone and print. And wonder who would craft such a message. They could look at how the seer is speaking.

2. They could also look at the whole scope of the plan. At how calculated the plan is/was. They could look at the people sending it 2/3 of (newc, BB & Austin). And perhaps they discount those 2 from making such a plan. They then can peel away 3 other people from the pool because they know its not them. That brings the suspect pool to 6.

Now it gets fun. They can then eliminate certain people from this pool in terms of planning and foresight as seer in terms of capabilities to pull off such a move.

Would theohall do such a move? -Sorry Theo but no.
Would Bubbles do such a move? Again no. Not that much of a planner
Would RMC do such a move? No
Would Remus? Quite Possibly
Would CR? Quite Possibly
Would Newcastle? Probably not
Would BB? Possibly since he helped fashion it.
Would Austin? Maybe
Would Qantaga? Probably not.

What I am saying, is they could have analyzed the situation and have easily winnowed the field of suspects as to who the seer was…despite our best attempts at subterfuge.

The consensus is that the most likely source of a wolf (or two) is in the group {Austin, bb2112, Newcastle}

Less likely, but certainly possible, is that two wolves are in the group {Bubbles, Chaos, Remus, Theo, RMC, Qantaga}

If the second scenario is true, then it is almost certain that Remus and RMC are not both wolves, Bubbles and theo are not both wolves, or Chaos and Qantaga are not both wolves.

Thoughts?

[theohall]

Let's go back to Day One. Most thought Newcastle or Austin should die. It turned into Austin or triggercut should die. Two of those three turned out to be villagers. Guess who is still alive and was one of the three in Unagi's PM gambit?

This was one of Austin's Day One posts:

If you cannot see trig and newc working together here...

Test newc. Scan Trig, decide on lynching me tomorrow.

And this is Lassr, a known wolf, covering his tracks after Qantaga caught he and Austin in a lie.

I fessed up to him at this point to avoid him Newcastling. (I also fessed to Qantaga, and told Lassr to wait a t one point to avoid them Newcastling)

I'm a little curious about when you told Lassr to wait.

The Story of Lassr.
Message 1

hmmm, sure I'll play along. If you are a wolf we'll see where this leads. If you are truly the seer then what huge pair of kahunas you are sporting. If you are a villager playing around then kudos.

Message 2

if you truly are the seer I would probably agree but what mistake are you talking about?

Was it after his reply to Message 2, or was there further correspondence from Lassr on the subject?

it was in between message 1 and message 2 when I asked about the other PM recipients.

Sorry, I had the timing wrong. It was after message 2.

I went back and looked at our conversation and I can remember typing up a pm asking who the other PMs were to in case he died but never sent it. I thought I had. But I do remember deleting it now and decided to wait and see where Austin was going with this ruse. I did think it was a ruse from the start.

So his Wait PM was after I asked him about his mistake.

 Austin 
 
has to go. Still can't believe we have not lynched him and it's Day 4, when he was the clear Day 2 candidate prior to Unagi finding Lassr, which should have made Austin THE Day 3 candidate.

Austin, RMC, or Qantaga. My bets are on Austin and RMC. This Remus West stuff just looks like a smoke screen which Austin is seriously playing up.

[theohall]

Forgot to add... Austin and Lassr agreeing on things by not arguing on Day One seems very odd.

[Remus West]

 Remus West 
 


Still debating bb.

So with the odds seriously in favor of there being a wolf in the three Unagi contacted you would rather take a shot at someone outside that group then at the other remaining one? You are saying you feel the wolves got lucky the night they killed Unagi? How very interesting. I was planning on coming on last night to ask you and Newcastle what it was that made you trust bb2112 as I am having a hard time seeing it. Sadly, I logged on instead to find Newcastle had self voted and started a landslide against himself. Now you, out of the gate, vote for me with no explanation when logic would dictate that bb2112 be your vote not your "debate". This vote feels like your vote on Newcastle yesterday.

So, to me today is a choice between Austin and bb2112. Shall we not rush things people. Go back and read the first day. There are some interesting things connecting both bb2112 and Austin to Lassr.

[theohall]

 Remus West 
 


Still debating bb.

So with the odds seriously in favor of there being a wolf in the three Unagi contacted you would rather take a shot at someone outside that group then at the other remaining one? You are saying you feel the wolves got lucky the night they killed Unagi? How very interesting. I was planning on coming on last night to ask you and Newcastle what it was that made you trust bb2112 as I am having a hard time seeing it. Sadly, I logged on instead to find Newcastle had self voted and started a landslide against himself. Now you, out of the gate, vote for me with no explanation when logic would dictate that bb2112 be your vote not your "debate". This vote feels like your vote on Newcastle yesterday.

So, to me today is a choice between Austin and bb2112. Shall we not rush things people. Go back and read the first day. There are some interesting things connecting both bb2112 and Austin to Lassr.

As long as Austin winds up getting lynched, take all the time you want. Everyone keeps giving him second and third chances when at least two folks noted Austin's Day One play is the kind of thing he likes to do when the wolves do not have extra powers. Both of those folks are now dead.

[theohall]

BTW, Remus, you very well appear to be right about bb2112 and Austin. They could very well be our two remaining wolves based on re-reading Day One. Very little interaction between Lassr, bb2112, and Austin. bb2112 stating the only person he would not vote for on Day One was Austin, with the caveat he would see where things stood after. After, he has yet to put a vote on Austin, even though it was clear it was a choice of Austin, Newcastle or triggercut. Why not Austin?

My gut says take out Austin first - then look at bb2112.

[Qantaga]

To build on my thoughts about Austin posted yesterday:

Most of what I read from Lassr's actions Day 1 and Day 2 lead me to think Austin is good (detailed in the linked post).

However, there are two exceptions:

1. As theo points out, that is a very suspicious exchange where "Austin told Lassr to wait" during the initial PM play.

2. I still think Lassrwolf would have jumped at the chance to be the killing vote on an Austinwolf. However, there is an event that I forgot to factor in to that evaluation. Unagi had sent out a series of PMs asking (please) to help lynch trig. I got one. A couple other players have mentioned getting one. I wonder if Unagi sent one to Lassr. If Lassr did get a PM from Unagi asking for help lynching trig, would he rather (A) gain favor with Unagi by helping lynch trig (whom Lassr knew would be a miss anyway) or (B) lynch Austinwolf and gain at least a fair amount of "I told you so" credit?

How many of you got a PM from Unagi asking for help lynching trig on Day 1? (At least 4 responses will be truthful and should help with this little mystery).

bb2112:

As the game grows longer, I continue to doubt my initial read of his innocence. I'll read back through all bb's posts/votes/interactions later today.

RMC:

His entire game has been "I'm not a wolf <shrug>."

Mr Bubbles:

Not much more to go on than RMC

I've got some thoughts on Remus and theo, but I need to re-read through their posts/votes/interactions again.

Our group decision, though, hinges on whether we think:

1. Unagi was betrayed directly - One or two wolves in {bb, Austin}

-or-

2. Unagi was discovered indirectly - Two wolves in {Remus, RMC, Mr Bubbles, theo, Qantaga}.

I do think it is incredibly important for all of us good villagers to vote only if we're willing to bet the entire game on our vote. If just two villagers vote mistakenly for a villager, the wolves can cause us to use our last miss (with any number of misleading explanations as to why they contributed to the miss).

[Qantaga]

For ease of reference:

Day 1 vote:

On the trig lynch: RMC, Unagi, Austin, Qantaga, bb2112, Lassr, Chaosraven
Off the trig lynch: El Guapo, triggercut, theohall, Mr Bubbles, Newcastle, Remus

Day 2 vote:

We really can't factor this in because of the Unagi PM pyramid. It would be worth everyone forming their opinions of the events before the "Lassr is a wolf" PMs went out.

Day 3 vote:

On the Newcastle lynch: Austin, RMC, Chaos, Newcastle, Qantaga
Off the Newcastle lynch: theohall, Bubbles, bb2112, Remus

[Qantaga]

The self vote never helps good. It's either a wolf ploy or a "woe is me/take my ball and go home" villager.

Ugh!

 Newcastle 
 

cant help a village that aint trying Q.

I realize that this will need to be addressed post-game, since Newcastle can't comment on this now.

However, before I forget:

cant help a village that aint trying Q.

Who are you to determine that the village wasn't trying? We still had over 72 hours before the deadline and we were coming off a holiday. Just because the game isn't moving to your expectations is no reason to give up (and penalize your team in the process).

[Qantaga]

Let's take a look at how bb's analysis of the responses to Austin's PMs turned out:

Roster

1. El Guapo - Fail - Pass - Half
2. Bubbles - Fail - Fail - Fail
3. Chaosraven - Pass - Pass - Pass
4. bb2112 - Pass - Pass - Pass
5. Remus West - Fail - Pass - Pass
6. Lassr - Fail - Fail - Half
7. Austin
8. Theo - Pass - Pass - Pass
9. Trig - Fail - Fail - Fail Half
10. RMC - Fail - Half - Half
11. Unagi - Pass - Half - Pass
12. Newcastle - Fail - Fail - Fail
13. Qantaga - Pass - Pass - Pass

Looks about 50/50, but maybe there's something in there, especially in regards to RMC and Bubbles (aren't they having a ball if they're the two wolves?).

[Remus West]

theohall, I wasn't trying to suggest they are both wolves, although I am not closed to that idea. What I was saying is that folks have been giving bb2112 a pass. I'm not sure why. It then becomes more interesting to me given Austin's rapid vote for me today. I'd like to hear why he feels I make a good vote today given the situation since it implies he feels very strongly regarding bb2112's role. As I write this I realize I am leaning towards both of them as wolves right now but I think that is really a difficult pill to swallow that Unagi may have picked the 2 remaining wolves to assist him in lynching the 1 wolf he had identified. I'm not certain I buy that possibility either.

[Austin]

What I was saying is that folks have been giving bb2112 a pass. I'm not sure why. .

Me neither. But there is at best 1 wolf in the bb/me set and if he is a miss (or me) and the other is also a villager, we are screwed tomorrow.

Ie we lynch bb today and he's innocent, tomorrow it's OMG lynch Austin and we lose. (or vice versa). I think I might prefer to take a shot outside the three today, but I admit it's gut over reason. (and like I said, if bb is innocent we are screwed tomorrow)

[theohall]

Yes, I received a PM from Unagi asking to lynch triggercut - and I threw Unagi under the bus after he did so, because I thought triggercut was the wrong target.

[Qantaga]

PM from Unagi asking to help lynch trig:

Qantaga: Yes
theo: Yes
bb: ???
Austin: ???
Remus: ???
RMC: ???
Mr Bubbles: ???

[theohall]

Qantaga, this bugs me in your assessement:

Austin - The $64,000 question: Would Austinwolf or Austinvillager make his "seer" gambit? Unfortunately, that's hard to say with Austin. My instinct tells me it was an Austinvillager play, but I completely misread Austin's play in the last game, so I'm not a good judge in that regard.

We had two very experienced and now dead villagers point out Austin loves to do things out-of-the-box when playing a regular basic wolf. What Austin did is a classic wolf move of his in both of their opinions. Why not acknowledge the experienced opinions? It is almost like, yet again, someone finding excuses to keep Austin-wolf alive - when Day One it was clearly he, Newcastle, or triggercut as the most likely wolf.

[Qantaga]

theo, Lassr also took that same approach with Austin.

[Austin]

First off, Unagi did not contact me about Trig.

Secondly, I am a better wolf than villager because I am not great at analysis. If I know who the enemy is, I do alright at manipulating. That said, the idea that my play was 'Austin as wolf' is silly. It was for better or worse, just an Austin play. I like to try stuff. I like to try to come up with ideas.

I really didn't think that this one would blow up as much as it did.
I screwed up the night idea.
This led to the PMs at night problem, which was an oversight.
I have screwed up by PMing at night twice, both times due to checking the game with my morning coffee and A)responding to a PM which had been sent during day. B)communicating with the seer claimant about a PM being picked up.
Voting for Newcastle - If innocent, I thought he would take it as a wink. I said it was temporary or for now... It was one vote, so I was not expecting to be outted. (I recall feeling like I needed to calm Lassr and bb with PMs over and above to void being outted). Point being, I was planning to come out and reveal all the info once Remus and RMC had collected their PMs.

I think it could have worked better with better planning.

I will alo say though, that I do not just go and do hat ever I want when playing on a team. This plan might have looked a bit better had I had editors.

[theohall]

First off, Unagi did not contact me about Trig.

Secondly, I am a better wolf than villager because I am not great at analysis. If I know who the enemy is, I do alright at manipulating. That said, the idea that my play was 'Austin as wolf' is silly. It was for better or worse, just an Austin play. I like to try stuff. I like to try to come up with ideas.

I really didn't think that this one would blow up as much as it did.
I screwed up the night idea.
This led to the PMs at night problem, which was an oversight.
I have screwed up by PMing at night twice, both times due to checking the game with my morning coffee and A)responding to a PM which had been sent during day. B)communicating with the seer claimant about a PM being picked up.
Voting for Newcastle - If innocent, I thought he would take it as a wink. I said it was temporary or for now... It was one vote, so I was not expecting to be outted. (I recall feeling like I needed to calm Lassr and bb with PMs over and above to void being outted). Point being, I was planning to come out and reveal all the info once Remus and RMC had collected their PMs.

I think it could have worked better with better planning.

I will alo say though, that I do not just go and do hat ever I want when playing on a team. This plan might have looked a bit better had I had editors.

My argument now is the players who would refute everything you just wrote, based on their past experience with you, are now dead. This bothers me immensely. Heck, they even explained how you have done this before as a basic wolf.

[theohall]

Day One: Austin is one of the three big suspects.
Day Two: Austin is one of the three PM'd by Unagi.
Day Three: Austin, again, is one of the three suspects based on Night Two events.
Day Four: ? Austin is still one of the two suspects based on Unagi's PMs and death.

So how many times is Austin going to be a suspect before we test him?

[Remus West]

What I was saying is that folks have been giving bb2112 a pass. I'm not sure why. .

Me neither. But there is at best 1 wolf in the bb/me set and if he is a miss (or me) and the other is also a villager, we are screwed tomorrow.

Ie we lynch bb today and he's innocent, tomorrow it's OMG lynch Austin and we lose. (or vice versa). I think I might prefer to take a shot outside the three today, but I admit it's gut over reason. (and like I said, if bb is innocent we are screwed tomorrow)

This really bothers me a LOT. Given that 1 of the two of you is most likely a wolf then taking a shot outside the group of you two means that if we miss today and the wolf among you manages to talk us into voting against the other then the game is over. You seem to over look that while at the same time saying you are not giving bb2112 a pass. I'm having a hard time with that.

[bb2112]

I don't think people should give me a pass. I've been saying all along I think there is a wolf among us three. I know it isn't me, but nobody else knows that.

I think the last two wolves are buried in Austin, Remus, Mr. Bubbles or Q. I have been giving Q a pass all game, but he was very quick to cap NC. Yeah, the self vote is irritating, but NC would most likely have pulled it after he calmed down. He capped him before NC could do that.

I am out of town and having some connectivity issues. I should be back by tomorrow evening.

[Remus West]

I don't think people should give me a pass. I've been saying all along I think there is a wolf among us three. I know it isn't me, but nobody else knows that.

I think the last two wolves are buried in Austin, Remus, Mr. Bubbles or Q. I have been giving Q a pass all game, but he was very quick to cap NC. Yeah, the self vote is irritating, but NC would most likely have pulled it after he calmed down. He capped him before NC could do that.

I am out of town and having some connectivity issues. I should be back by tomorrow evening.

Interesting. No interest in RMC or theohall? I'd be interested in the reasoning behind those.

[bb2112]

I don't think people should give me a pass. I've been saying all along I think there is a wolf among us three. I know it isn't me, but nobody else knows that.

I think the last two wolves are buried in Austin, Remus, Mr. Bubbles or Q. I have been giving Q a pass all game, but he was very quick to cap NC. Yeah, the self vote is irritating, but NC would most likely have pulled it after he calmed down. He capped him before NC could do that.

I am out of town and having some connectivity issues. I should be back by tomorrow evening.

Interesting. No interest in RMC or theohall? I'd be interested in the reasoning behind those.

Ok. I don't think they are wolves. They strike me as confused, but not necessarily evil. But hey, I could be wrong. I thought NC was the wolf of the Unagi three, but now I have to conclude it is either Austin, or NC might have been right all along with his grouping theory.

Well, I am off to my hotel room. The only way I'm getting connectivity is by sitting in a stairwell on the other side of the hotel.

[theohall]

These are all of Lassr's posts in regards to Austin. The one thing you won't see is a vote against Austin until Day Two when Austin had been PM'd already by Unagi. Does this clear bb2112, no? However, Qantaga seems this Lassr stuff clears Austin. I don't, because Lassr is wishy-washy the whole time about it - not consistently saying this is a wolf ploy by Austin - as Newcastle and triggercut were consistently mentioning. At the end of Day One, Lassr is completely agreeing with Austin and waiting to see who Austin wants to lynch to help him make up his own mind.

Kindly do not lynch me during the night. Lassr especially.

Well, it would require some help from others

Obviously, I'm Wolf.

Hey, you are not on the list!

Anyone have any thoughts on Austin? Be wary of any PM from him!

Can't believe Remus hasn't garnered a vote yet.

'

Like he knew were going to get PMs from Austin before Austin had even sent them. Nice little plant. At least that post was before I had received one.

 austin 
 


i think he's a wolf...got a PM from him claiming seer...oh yeah...i went there...i dont believe him

I got the PM too, but man.. if he turned out to be the real seer, you just screwed us over...

So, that is 2 of the 4 Austin claimed to have PM'ed.

I certainly didn't make up my mind about Austin one way or another, but I would have liked to give him more time to also gather information on my end. that outing causes that avenue to be shut prematurely. Would have liked it to play out a bit more than it did.. Thanks Newcastle...

+1

I was waiting to see where Austin was going with this.

See, I think it could've been made by a brazen wolf, but I wanted to see where he went with it. Wanted to give him a turn or two. I was about to ask him who his other contacts were, mostly because I figured that if Austin's contacts turned out to be a wolf hit-list, we'd know which team he played on. But hey, give him a shot, and if he turns up a wolf in the first two turns then kudos to him.

Honestly, it was a puzzling play by Austin. Really questionable. I have numerous questions about it that we can discuss to take this a different direction now that watching Austin to see what he does is off the table.

I asked him the same thing and he told me to be patient.

This is when Qantaga called out Lassr as to when he asked and when Austin told him. However, there is also a pattern of Qantaga consistently protecting Austin, which bugs me to no end - will post that next

My biggest problem--and Unagi and Newcastle and I are all in the same boat on this--is Austin's decision to use timeliness of reply as his key "Wolf Detector" here.
.

well, I have used that exact test in prior PM games. So I don't think much of that but that doesn't mean I trust Austin...far from it.

Austin gets bored when he's on a wolf team but doesn't have wolfy powers beyond just group nighttime kills.

In one game (Bloodsucking Freaks, I think) I was converted to team evil. Austin at one point seriously suggested posting a doctored up post to make it look like he'd just posted a PM.

Seriously.

He thought that was a good play.

Bakh and I talked him out of it.

I'm beginning to think that the other two wolves couldn't talk him out of this. Dunno. He leans wolfy to me.

Heh, remember in the game we just finished where Austin faked that he posted in the wrong forum. We, the other imperials, didn't think anyone would believe it.

Note - it is triggercut calling out Austin - not Lassr. Lassr just makes an off-hand remark about a prior game kind of agreeing with triggercut, but not enough to accuse Austin

I fessed up to him at this point to avoid him Newcastling. (I also fessed to Qantaga, and told Lassr to wait a t one point to avoid them Newcastling)

I'm a little curious about when you told Lassr to wait.

The Story of Lassr.
Message 1

hmmm, sure I'll play along. If you are a wolf we'll see where this leads. If you are truly the seer then what huge pair of kahunas you are sporting. If you are a villager playing around then kudos.

Message 2

if you truly are the seer I would probably agree but what mistake are you talking about?

Was it after his reply to Message 2, or was there further correspondence from Lassr on the subject?

it was in between message 1 and message 2 when I asked about the other PM recipients.

Q catching Lassr, which may have just been something convenient to protect himself in the future.

This next couple of Lassr posts are the most telling, since it essentially contradicts Qantaga's claim about Lassr's view on Austin. 1) Lassr is wishy-washy. 2) He is not willing to lynch Austin, but someone completely different.

Austin's move does not seem like a wolf move he would make IMHO. But it might be best to test him and if he does turn up village then look at his suspicions of Newcastle and triggercut.

I do feel like Newcastle or Austin would make a good first lynch though. Just not sure which direction to go first.

The more I think about Trig's behaviour, and Newc/El Guapo's similar attacks. The harebrained/stupid/discrediting, the personal look at my dumb moves in previous games, and general focused rush on me - the more I think we could have a sweep available. Please, let's lynch Newcastle or Trig today. If a wolf, scan Guapo or the other and if a wolf let us know via a proxy. Then the remaining one. If at anytime we miss, scan or lynch me. (unless I am dead)

Trig claims he is not the seer and I have offered about the most compelling Day 1 evidence you're gonna' get. Newc and Trig are tied for my tops, with El Guapo as runner up. Vote Triggercut or Newcastle for lynch.

I'd be willing to vote for one today and see what that gets us. Nabs us a wolf then we can continue on tomorrow, nabs a villager then some reassessment will be needed.

That's what I said, I or what I meant to say, I think.

It is, I was just saying I'm willing. As I stated this does not feel like a wolf move from you. Oh you've fooled me before but I'd like to think I have a little more experience these days compared to 5 years ago.

If you did this gambit on day 2 I'd be a lot more leery.

Lassr again agreeing with Austin - twice.

I'd be willing to vote for one today and see what that gets us. Nabs us a wolf then we can continue on tomorrow, nabs a villager then some reassessment will be needed.

I think of the three, NC nabs us the most info. If he is wolf, then yay, if not, then it paints Austin in a pretty bad light. I also think he is most likely a wolf based on my threat matrix, so for me it is a pretty easy decision.

Maybe. My vote is currently on EL Guapo. I want to hear which way Austin wants to vote though. This was his test.

Lassr wants to rely on Austin how to vote

I believe that is enough to discredit Qantaga's claim that Lassr was questioning Austin's Day One play. Lassr agreed with Austin for most of Day One and seriously agreed with him when it mattered.

A bigger question - why doesn't Qantaga want us to lynch Austin? This is the third time this game he has not wanted an Austin lynch. Why??? He started it on Day One.

[theohall]

From Day One:

When Austin went to N-1, the following remaining players could have placed Austin, other than Austin, could have cast the Nth vote on Austin and did not:

RMC, Qantaga, bb2112, Remus.

Instead, the lynch winds up being triggercut with these four: Austin, Qantaga, bb2112, Lassr in the middle of the vote. Chaosraven was the Nth vote. Hey look. There are two consistent names there along with Austin.

Our two wolves are in this grouping of three, IMO: Austin, bb2112, and Qantaga.

[Austin]

From Day One:

When Austin went to N-1, the following remaining players could have placed Austin, other than Austin, could have cast the Nth vote on Austin and did not:

RMC, Qantaga, bb2112, Remus.

Instead, the lynch winds up being triggercut with these four: Austin, Qantaga, bb2112, Lassr in the middle of the vote. Chaosraven was the Nth vote. Hey look. There are two consistent names there along with Austin.

Our two wolves are in this grouping of three, IMO: Austin, bb2112, and Qantaga.

You are barking up the wrong tree. All this "evidence" is irrelevant or antithetical to your position.

[Austin]

Furthermore, you seem eager to point out that all these wise people who know my wolf-play so well have all *gasp* been killed. HEY EVERYONE, AUSTIN MUST HAVE KILLED OFF ALL THE ONES TRYING TO REVEAL HIS SECRETS! A) I have addressed the wolf-play V Austin-play thing. B) You are coming off as a wolf who is PO'd that no one has seen his frame attempt. (Although no one sees it because there is no pattern) C) I don't have a C yet, but will edit it in later if I think of one.

[theohall]

1st time Q is not willing to lynch Austin.

As for me, I'm not inclined to push Austin over.

I'd like to see what does or doesn't happen to Austin tonight and then evaluate that tomorrow.

Since Chaos has left me as the only one voting for Lassr and the deadline is looming, I'll move to, as explained earlier:

- trig. Regardless of what Pete Hogswallop thinks, I'm still bugged by trig's "categorically: I am not the Seer" remark. I can't discern why a villager (Seer included) would make that statement. That leads me to see trig more in an evil light than a good one. Then, there's the (momentary) self vote. I know I am blinded by my own prejudices regarding the self-vote (I don't see any reason for a good player to ever help the wolves decrease the numbers required to lynch), so this adds to my suspicion of trig ("take my ball and go home" explanation or no).

 triggercut 
 

Nothing happened to Austin in the night. Lassr was outed by Unagi. So when should we have re-evaluated Austin? On Day Three, right? A short aside now. Beginning of Day Two - before Lassr has been outed. Guess who lists Lassr has his #1 evil? Yep. Qantaga. As if he got the info from a his brother wolf who had been PM'd. And he is still pushing the "don't lynch Austin" thing.

Day 2 musings:

- Lassr is still my top evil candidate.

- Unagi - would Unagi really have pleaded for help in lynching trig, if Unagi was a wolf (knowing that trig would come up good)? Or is Unagi devious enough to make that play to be able to say (something along the lines of), "a wolf would never make that play?"

- theohall - theo is moving up my list with a bullet. Last game, his single-mindedness (blindness to any other possibilities) proved spectacularly wrong. theo is a smart enough guy that I would expect him to re-evaluate that approach and become at least slightly more open-minded if he were a villager this game. His same damn the torpedoes approach this game strikes me more as a wolf hiding behind "consistency," than a villager searching for truth.

- Austin - I honestly don't know what to think of Austin. My feeling is that he is a villager trying for info, but I can easily see him being evil, too. What concerns me is those that rush today to a "Austin must be tested" stance. While Austin might be a good lynch candidate for today, it's certainly not a given that he is evil and he should merit a lot more discussion. We're currently at 8g/3e. A miss today takes up to 6g/3e tomorrow, which puts the wolves at a very big advantage. Today, we should be digging as deeply as possible to find wolves, not just "testing."

- Newcastle - I'm still bugged by Newcastle's "blow it up" play, but I was wrong in judging trig's "categorically: I am not the seer" statement, so I'm going to have to reevaluate my thoughts on Newcastle today.

- bb2112 - I'm still leaning good on bb, but I plan on reading up on him a little further today.

- Bubbles, Chaos, Remus, RMC - How many wolves are hiding here? One, two, all three?

More Day 2 Qantaga asking us not to test Austin

In this game I say better safe than sorry on Austin. Don't let him fool ya.

Even if Austin is a wolf, there are two others. Should we really rush to test Austin before we even make a decent effort of finding the other two?

This is Qantaga on Austin on Day Three, when Austin did not die on Night One and is one of the three PM'd by Unagi and now twice a suspect.

The consensus is that the most likely source of a wolf (or two) is in the group {Austin, bb2112, Newcastle}

Less likely, but certainly possible, is that two wolves are in the group {Bubbles, Chaos, Remus, Theo, RMC, Qantaga}

If the second scenario is true, then it is almost certain that Remus and RMC are not both wolves, Bubbles and theo are not both wolves, or Chaos and Qantaga are not both wolves.

If you are good (well, even if you're a wolf and you'd like to give us a helping hand) and you had a PM conversation with another player along the lines of "Did you get a PM from Player X? No, but I got a PM from Player Y" before bb revealed the plan (the morning after Unagi's death), now would be the time to reveal that information (as it could very well help us nab a wolf).

Musings on Unagi's direct contacts:

Austin - The $64,000 question: Would Austinwolf or Austinvillager make his "seer" gambit? Unfortunately, that's hard to say with Austin. My instinct tells me it was an Austinvillager play, but I completely misread Austin's play in the last game, so I'm not a good judge in that regard.

Lassr declined to lynch Austin Day 1, then tried to get him lynched Day 2 (well before Unagi's PM plan was activated to the masses).

Would Day 1 Lassr rather try to get trigvillager killed (his vote put trig n-1), in hopes of saving his partner from the noose? Or would Lassr not want to be the killing vote on Austin (if Austin is good)?

My instinct tells me that (in that particular situation), Lassr might have wanted to be the killing vote on a bad Austin, but not the killing vote on a good Austin, but Lassr is skilled enough for any level of lynching sleight of hand.

As a matter of fact, this whole thing leads me to think that Ausin is good. Lassr's mantra has been "don't trust Austin." If Austin is a wolf, wouldn't Lassr have loved to be able to say, "I told you so" when Austin came back evil, especially considering that Austin was n-1 at the time and a very probable lynch (if not Day 1, then at least Day 2)?"

On Day 2, was Lassr's vote on Austin (and his continued support of that vote) the act of a Lassrwolf going after an easy target or a Lassrwolf going after his brethren to gain cred? The question is, did Lassr feel in danger of a lynch? Chaos had voted Lassr and later withdrew on Day 1. I had clearly listed Lassr as my first choice (and made a case why) on Day 1. However, those were the only two votes Lassr got and he was never in any danger of being lynched on Day 1. On Day 2, Lassr cast his vote for Austin before Remus cast his vote of Lassr and before I re-iterated that I still had Lassr as my top candidate.

Obviously, these games have become very sophisticated with wolves-accusing-partners becoming a standard play. The question for all of us to evaluate is, does Lassr's actions tell us anything at all about Austin?

bb2112 - bb seems to have been given a clean bill of health by all (myself included). That makes me nervous in and of itself. bb has proven very skillful in deception.

Newcastle - I still can't let go of Newcastle blowing up Austin's play. He claims it was in retaliation for Austin's vote, but Austin's was the only vote on Newcastle at the time. Why the urgency to expose Austin's plan? One of the original suggestions was that perhaps Newcastle was a nervous seer wanting to blow up a wolf's play, but we know now that's not the case. Unagi seemed to clear Newcastle, but I'm seeing Newcastle more in a suspicious light.

As for Bubbles, Chaos, Remus, theo, and RMC, I need to dig a little deeper. They've mostly (theo being the exception) played a low-key game. I'll try to put together some thoughts on them a little later.

Then Qantaga casts the killing vote on Newcastle ending further discussion - even though 72 hours still remained to talk Newcastle off the self-vote ledge.

On to Day 4. According to Q on Day One we should have re-evaluated Austin by now, but he seems to be refusing to want to re-evaluate Austin. Why?? Q on Austin on Day 4.

To build on my thoughts about Austin posted yesterday:

Most of what I read from Lassr's actions Day 1 and Day 2 lead me to think Austin is good (detailed in the linked post).

However, there are two exceptions:

1. As theo points out, that is a very suspicious exchange where "Austin told Lassr to wait" during the initial PM play.

2. I still think Lassrwolf would have jumped at the chance to be the killing vote on an Austinwolf. However, there is an event that I forgot to factor in to that evaluation. Unagi had sent out a series of PMs asking (please) to help lynch trig. I got one. A couple other players have mentioned getting one. I wonder if Unagi sent one to Lassr. If Lassr did get a PM from Unagi asking for help lynching trig, would he rather (A) gain favor with Unagi by helping lynch trig (whom Lassr knew would be a miss anyway) or (B) lynch Austinwolf and gain at least a fair amount of "I told you so" credit?

How many of you got a PM from Unagi asking for help lynching trig on Day 1? (At least 4 responses will be truthful and should help with this little mystery).

bb2112:

As the game grows longer, I continue to doubt my initial read of his innocence. I'll read back through all bb's posts/votes/interactions later today.

RMC:

His entire game has been "I'm not a wolf <shrug>."

Mr Bubbles:

Not much more to go on than RMC

I've got some thoughts on Remus and theo, but I need to re-read through their posts/votes/interactions again.

Our group decision, though, hinges on whether we think:

1. Unagi was betrayed directly - One or two wolves in {bb, Austin}

-or-

2. Unagi was discovered indirectly - Two wolves in {Remus, RMC, Mr Bubbles, theo, Qantaga}.

I do think it is incredibly important for all of us good villagers to vote only if we're willing to bet the entire game on our vote. If just two villagers vote mistakenly for a villager, the wolves can cause us to use our last miss (with any number of misleading explanations as to why they contributed to the miss).

He still believes Austin to be good.

theo, Lassr also took that same approach with Austin.

Yet at the end of Day One, Lassr was waiting for Austin to decide on his lynch target. So this statement is untrue. Lassr started the day by "questioning" Austin, but by the end of Day One was agreeing with him..

Question for Qantaga: WHY DON'T YOU WANT US TO LYNCH AUSTIN? . You have asked us not to lynch him all game, yet we were supposed to re-evaluate if he did not die on Night One. Well, he has not died on any night and all of your evaluations claim he is a villager. Shouldn't that tell us something??

[theohall]

Apologies for the walls of text.

The gist of it.

1) Qantaga claims Lassr was taking the same approach to Austin as Newcastle and triggercut, which is not true. Newcastle and triggercut were adamant that it was a wolf-play by Austin. Lassr started out that way, but shifted, while never once accusing Austin other than threats of maybe accusing him once.
2) By the end of Day One, Lassr was clearly agreeing with Austin.
3) Qantaga has consistently asked us not to lynch Austin, even when he has claimed we should re-evaluate Austin's play after Night One. His re-evaluation has been more of the same - "Austin is a villager and we should keep analyzing his play" crap while lynching someone else.

Austin needs to go, now. If he comes up wolf, Qantaga is next.