(Almost) Simple WW Game #2 - Game Over

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 7:08 pm

And the village goes down.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 7:38 pm

I hope not...But we shall see...

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 7:50 pm

Day 5 Final Vote Count

Voting is closed.

Voting history

Spoiler:

Majority is 3.

Against bb2112 (3): theohall, Remus, RMC
Against theohall (1): bb2112

No Votes (1): Qantaga

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 7:51 pm

Dudes, bb2112 was such a Wolf!

It is Night.

Seer and Wolves, do your thing.

Deadline is 8pm Central Time on Tuesday, July 17.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 7:56 pm

YES!!!!!

Don't give the wolf any clues right now. Let him pick one of us to make the 50/50 decision without our input.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 7:58 pm

Kill yourself wolf!

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 8:24 pm

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Jul 16, 2012 11:29 pm

bb2112 wrote:

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:13 am

Dang Wolf! You have just under 14 hours. Kill yourself already!!!!!!!!

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Tue Jul 17, 2012 9:35 am

And now for the exciting conclusion:

Theohall is Dead!

It is Day. Villagers, do your thing!

Census

El Guapo - lost his ribs
Bubbles - fast food
Chaosraven - finger lickin' good
bb2112 - WOLF
Remus West
Lassr - WOLF
Austin - lynched with regret
theohall - the last supper
Trig - lynched
RMC
Unagi - traditional unadon takeout
Newcastle - suicide
Qantaga ( )

Majority is 2.

Deadline is Thursday, July 19 at 8pm Central Time.

The deadline for this day is a bit shorter because I have to be on a plane to Japan on Friday morning. If you really think you'll need the extra 12 hours, let me know and I'm sure one of the

will be happy to do the final reveal for you.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Tue Jul 17, 2012 10:52 am

Well so either Remus or Q is the final wolf...

So who do I think is the wolf??

Remus has played a semi-quiet game..But Q has tried to distance himself from BB in some of the PM's to me.

I need to go back and look at some voting history, I think Remus was missing from some voting if I remember correctly..

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Tue Jul 17, 2012 3:24 pm

In for a penny, in for a pound. If I've been used then I'll have to tip my hat to Qantaga but I still can not see him as a wolf. My only real doubt of him comes from the quick vote on a single day. I have plenty of questions regarding RMC's behavior this game, starting with the odd interaction with Lassr and continuing through yesterday's questioning of my voting for bb2112 when I had thought I made it very clear that bb2112 and RMC were easily my top two candidates.

RMC

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Tue Jul 17, 2012 3:28 pm

The good news is that I am now proven not to be a wolf.

The bad news is that I now have the fate of the game in my hands.

I'm virtually certain that I know which way I am going to vote, but I need to do my due diligence and take a final look.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Tue Jul 17, 2012 3:31 pm

Qantaga wrote:The bad news is that I now have the fate of the game in my hands.

This is why I went ahead and cast my vote. I did not want to be in that position.

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Tue Jul 17, 2012 5:01 pm

Isn't this going to be fun?

This post is just to chronicle my folly, in case I guess wrong on the last wolf.

Remus:

- If it turns out that Remus is the last wolf, I will go down as one of the most epicly manipulated players in the annals of OO WW games.

- Remus and I have been in PM contact from the start of the game. bb and I were in PM contact from the start of the game. They both pointed at each other from the start. I even went to great lengths with both of them to explain why I thought there was a decent chance that the other was good. I was dead solid wrong on bb. Am I that gullible that I could be wrong on both? Yes, I'm sure it is possible, but it would have taken a sustained, calculated effort from both of them for the entire game to maintain a two-step deception on me. I am certainly capable of such deception, but would they mount such an effort?

- Yesterday, when the vote was 1 on bb and 1 on theo (from each other), Remus was in a position to wait. There was still 2 hours and 15 minutes left (although RMC had just posted that there was only and hour and 20 minutes left, it was really two hours and 20 minutes because the deadline was Central). Remus was faced with voting theo or bb. For Remus to be a wolf, he would have to be bb's partner. So, why would a wolf vote for his partner in that situation? By PMs and by my posts in the main thread, Remus knew that I was leaning more toward an evil theo, than an evil bb. I had made it pretty clear, both in the main thread and in PMs to Remus and bb, that I was suspicious of theo being a wolf. If Remus and bb were teammates, they would have certainly shared my suspicions of theo and the PMs that I sent both of them, detailing why I thought both Remus and bb were possibly good. A Remuswolf would have known that and probably waited to at least see if I was going to vote theo, before he put his partner's neck in the noose. Or, if he felt the need to vote, why wouldn't Remuswolf put a vote on theo, knowing that if either RMC or I settled on theo, the wolves would have won outright? Also, Remus and I had just exchanged PMs, with me asking him his plan. It would have been very easy for him to wait to see which way I went. It would have meant a win for the wolves, if I voted theo, or Remus could have then killed bb and looked good for today, if I did vote on bb. But, placing the second vote on his partner makes me doubt that Remus was teamed with bb. It's certainly possible, but it would have meant that Remus by-passed the chance of winning yesterday for a gamble on winning today.

- When yesterday (game day) dawned, Remus sent me a PM saying that he needed to know why I thought there was a chance that bb was good. I went through seven possible reasons that bb might be good, in detail. Remus' response? He basically ignored my post and went into the game thread and said:

Remus West wrote:I think it would be silly to pursue anyone other than bb2112 today due to the Unagi angle though and I'd like to do that then we have either lost or get to see where we are at tomorrow. A final decision between theohall, RMC, and Qantaga will either be made easier or taken out of my hands entirely.

While that could easily be posturing by a Remuswolf, it doesn't seem to line up with a wolfy Remus. If I had gone to such pains to explain why I thought his wolfy partner might be good, he could have easily played that to the fullest extent and acted like my "logic" had swayed him, but he never wavered in his suspicion (both public and private) of bb.

That stands in stark contrast from what bbwolf actually did. bb sent me a PM, saying that he was planning to put a vote on Remus. I sent him a detailed PM of why I thought Remus was good. Then, bb changed his stance and voted publicly for theo. A vote that, in retrospect, was certainly designed to play on my suspicions and hope that I would join the theo vote. Remus did not change his stance to accomodate my suspicions. He remained decisive about bb, even when it would have benefitted him greatly to pretend to go along with some of my reasons.

Just the fact that bb (in his PMs to me) led with Remus being the one bb planned to vote on in the open thread, leads me to believe Remus good. bb didn't lead with theo or RMC, he led with Remus. Had I not been the one to say why I thought Remus was good, he would have needed to go through with the public vote on Remus or looked very suspicious when he didn't. Yes, it could have been a calculated play, but it would have meant giving up any chance of winning on Day 5 and betting everything on sacrificing a partner and trying to win on the final day.

RMC:

- I have been suspicous of RMC for most of the game. Mainly because of his almost complete absence during the Day 1 fireworks and because of his little swat at Lassr, that still looks contrived. theo picked up on it, too. I originally thought that might mean that theo was a wolf, too, but I now think that theo's perceptions caught it, too.

- RMC's voting patterns on Day 4 and comments that day still strike me very strange. His non-commital mid-day shift from bb to Austin led to the higher probability of an Austin lynch than a bb lynch and he looked more like a wolf positioning than a villager in search of a wolf.

- As I looked, at the final wolf pairs yesterday, I narrowed the pairs down to {Remus/theo}, {theo/RMC}, {RMC/bb}. The only one left is {RMC/bb}.

bb's death

Either Remus or RMC is a wolf. Both of them participated in bb's lynching yesterday. Remus with vote number 2. RMC with the killing vote, after pausing.

Here's where the game hinges and where I'm going to kick myself for a long time, if I guess wrong here.

1. RMC posts that the deadline is only an hour and 20 minutes away (as mentioned above, we actually had 2 hours and 20 minutes since stess' deadline was CST).
2. RMC also says that he is probably going to vote bb, while questioning, "are we going to vote for either bb or theo? or does someone think neither theo or bb is a wolf?"
3. Remus comes in three minutes later and votes for bb, saying that he cannot see theo as a wolf.
4. RMC then says that neither can he see theo as a wolf.
5. RMC points out that following his logic through would mean that Remus was making a play for the next day.
6. RMC kills bb.

So, I'm left to wonder if (A) Remus jumped the bb vote, thinking RMC meant to vote bb and, thus set himself (Remus) up for today?, or (B) RMC put the killling vote on bb to make himself look good for today.

I've already discussed option (A) above but, just to re-iterate. If Remus and bb are teammates, Remus knows that I have an already biased opinion toward theo being a wolf. Plus, Remus and I had been in contact at that time, so that he knows that I am active in the game and still planning to cast a vote soon. It would have been easy for Remus to give it a little longer to see if I would cast the theo vote that would win him the game right there, without having to worry about what happens today.

While RMC knew that I was leaning theo over bb, he may have felt pressured by Remus' vote, knowing that if I came into the thread with the deadline looming and saw that bb had two votes and theo had one, that I might have put the vote on bb. So, RMC may have been looking for credibility today by casting the killing vote.

It's certain that one of them helped kill their teammate, I just hope I'm guessing the correct one.

The kicker

There is one, particular, over-riding reason that I think Remus is good. Way back on the night Unagi was killed, I got a PM from Remus. I'll provide it at game's end, if the discussion merits.

I realize that virtually anything goes in these PM games (and I have certainly learned a lot through the course of this one), but if Remus is a wolf, that PM will lands very firmly in the territory of a "trick." While I know other players (Austin and stess come to mind) advocate anything goes strategies like faking posts to look like they were in the wrong forum, etc., I don't think Remus is a player that resorts to "tricks." I could very well be wrong (and this is certainly not a judgement of him if it is a trick), but I just don't think Remus is a player that would use trickery.

Unfortunately for the village, my "analysis" has been off for most of this game. I was wrong about trig on Day 1 (although I was right about Lassr, thankfully). I was wrong about Newcastle (more on that post-game). I was wrong when I cast the vote on Austin (it came down to a figurative coin toss between he and bb with the deadline approaching), but at least I was right in my constant "defending" of Austin prior to that mis-placed vote. And, worst of all, I was dead wrong on bb.

For better or worse:

RMC

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Tue Jul 17, 2012 5:11 pm

The night PM I sent you was a complete accident as far as the timing. The contents were true to my designs at that point. I regret the timing and as I asked when I realized I had sent night PMs I want the timing to be ignored. It was a true screw up on my part.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 10:07 am

Not sure if this is my place...BUT....since Stessier is getting ready to go to Japan ...he might be a wee bit busy to update this thread...SO....if any of the remaining folks want to be spoiled w/ the results shoot me a PM and I'll send you the results back.

Just figure to do this since the game "ended" almost 18 hours ago...I know i'd hate to be in suspense that long.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 10:10 am

Seems like since the write ups are simply "Joe is/is not a wolf!" that anyone could do it on stessier's behalf. Though I suppose that it's better etiquette to wait for stessier.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 10:25 am

Sorry - trip planning meetings are killing me.

Update incoming!

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 10:26 am

Yeah, I really want to know if the good and righteous wolves won this one.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 10:32 am

/* Camera swoops in and sees the world through RMC's eyes */

So the last two were Remus and Q... They have conspired against me from the start, but how to seek my revenge? They have taken out my fellow brothers, and I must convince them not to lynch me. But how?

What is that outside my door? The sounds of booted feet? Have they already reached a decision?? How can this be! They shall die a painful death! I will munch on their bones if the attempt to lynch me!

I am not to be trifled with! For I am the king of the world!

KNOCK KNOCK.
"Pizza delivery for a Mr. Werewolf", Snickered Remus. "Look at this Q, RMC is an idiot, he will fall for the Pizza delivery guy. Oldest gag in the book."

KNOCK KNOCK.

/* Scene dissolves and Q clearly wakes from a dream */

Lynchings always mess with my mind, but why do I still smell pizza, thinks Q?

Q walks to the door and opens it.

"I brought you over your favorite pizza", Snickered Remus. "Cheese with extra slices of RMC." And with that, Remus lunged through the door and ripped Qantaga's throat out.

WOLVES - AGAINST ALL ODDS AND REASON - WIN!

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 10:35 am

stessier wrote:

AGAINST ALL ODDS AND REASON - WIN!

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 10:38 am

Qantaga wrote:I realize that virtually anything goes in these PM games (and I have certainly learned a lot through the course of this one), but if Remus is a wolf, that PM will lands very firmly in the territory of a "trick." While I know other players (Austin and stess come to mind) advocate anything goes strategies like faking posts to look like they were in the wrong forum, etc.,

Does anyone remember the game where I did this on purpose? I think I did it to Unagi where I made sure he was on and only he was on, posted something, then deleted the post before anyone replied. I can't find it because I have no idea what to search on or even if Unagi was the one involved. I remember being quite pleased with the result, but I also can't remember if I was Good or Evil.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 10:40 am

In terms of this game, I'm impressed how hard everyone worked to stay within the rules. There was absolutely no way for me to monitor if PMing stopped at Night and no way for anyone to tell if a report of rule breaking was truthful or not short of a lynch, and yet most of you tried your hardest to stick to the rule and tattle on anyone who didn't. I was amused.

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 10:41 am

Qantaga wrote: If it turns out that Remus is the last wolf, I will go down as one of the most epicly manipulated players in the annals of OO WW games.

Someone hang the plaque.

Very nicely done wolves.

My sincere apologies to the village.

I'll be back to accept my well deserved ridicule soon but, for the moment, I'm going to pretend that this is just a bad dream.

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 10:41 am

The only good Remus is...

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 10:48 am

coopasonic wrote:The only good Remus is...

And you guys think I am kidding.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 10:55 am

Qantaga wrote:
Qantaga wrote: If it turns out that Remus is the last wolf, I will go down as one of the most epicly manipulated players in the annals of OO WW games.

Someone hang the plaque.

Very nicely done wolves.

My sincere apologies to the village.

I'll be back to accept my well deserved ridicule soon but, for the moment, I'm going to pretend that this is just a bad dream.

Second time you have killed me to give the wolves a win.. I think that was you the last time it happened.

And you didn't even give me a chance to talk or anything, just here's the AX.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 11:10 am

Good job wolves. Also nicely done BB in somehow confusing everyone when you were amongst the 3 trusted. I would be really, really curious to see the PM"s that were exchanged between Remus & you when Unagi contacted you.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 11:17 am

Due to Remus essentially outing bb2112 while I was getting everyone to lynch Austin, I would have tried to lynch Qantaga had they let me live. Well-played wolves.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 12:16 pm

Qantaga wrote:
Qantaga wrote: If it turns out that Remus is the last wolf, I will go down as one of the most epicly manipulated players in the annals of OO WW games.

Someone hang the plaque.

You do not know how much I appreciate it. I will gladly pass the plaque to you.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 12:16 pm

I kept trying to tell RMC and Q that you guys were both villagers and that Remus was a wolf. Nobody would believe me. With all the lies I was spinning, I was not lying about this!

I think this was a good game for me. It is the first time I was evil and had any success, so I understand the evil game mechanics a little better than I used to. Although part of me feels proud for all the lying, part of me still feels dirty. I am starting to understand why Grund likes being a villager.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 12:30 pm

I thought I would get scanned early...just not day 1. I was just trying to act crazy and maybe misdirect some who dissected my posts after I was lynched. I am surprised that Remus won it. I thought it would be bb that pulled this one out.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 12:34 pm

...in the files of even a blind squirrel finds a nut.....my final guess to Stessier before being spoilerd and right after being lynched:

Newcastle wrote:hmm final guesses

i think it could be either

remus/CR
or
Remus/BB
or
or maybe austin in the mix

i think it is not:
Qantaga
Theohall
Bubbles

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 12:34 pm

I didn't think so. I was surprised I lasted to the 2nd to the last day. I was hoping Q would vote for Theo, but he was being extremely cautious. Pitting me and Theo against each other meant one of us was going to die. Remus did a great job of jumping on the opportunity.

Didn't somebody mention again, a good Remus is a...

If he makes it to the end, he is not good, people!!!

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 12:37 pm

And sorry Q. I realized earlier in the thread that Stess mentioned the theme of this game was to crush your spirit. It didn't occur to me until we were getting ready to lynch NC that Remus and I were working you hard and how that was going to look post game.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 12:39 pm

Main reason i came up w/ Remus in that...and yes this is after the fact....is that his move on to Lassr on Sunday night. This was about 12 hours when we moved on Lassr. It really gave me pause, and made me think that he had prior knowledge about it. This led to fact #2....Austin had not been in contact w/ Unagi by then. He had not picked up his PM. The only person who had been in communication w/ Unagi was BB and I.

Also at the end I was in the ...austin is most likely innocent camp. Granted it was wishy washy, but i had come a long way from my belief that he was a wolf. Reading his PM's and his actions I just really started to think he was innocent. This also led me to question BB some.

The other thing against BB was he made a slip in my mind about 3 misses. Even after I corrected him he said 3 misses again. That really made me wonder about his perspective. This is around P. 19. He eventually covered it up in the fact that he was thinking in 3 strikes & youre out mentality.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 12:42 pm

Newcastle wrote: The other thing against BB was he made a slip in my mind about 3 misses. Even after I corrected him he said 3 misses again. That really made me wonder about his perspective. This is around P. 19. He eventually covered it up in the fact that he was thinking in 3 strikes & youre out mentality.

Nope, that was not a slip. I was really thinking of it as 3 strikes. Even if I was a good little villager, we would have had the exact same conversation.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 12:44 pm

bb2112 wrote:
Newcastle wrote: The other thing against BB was he made a slip in my mind about 3 misses. Even after I corrected him he said 3 misses again. That really made me wonder about his perspective. This is around P. 19. He eventually covered it up in the fact that he was thinking in 3 strikes & youre out mentality.
Nope, that was not a slip. I was really thinking of it as 3 strikes. Even if I was a good little villager, we would have had the exact same conversation.

Here's the thing we had 2 misses. For me it seemed like a slip, you might not think of it. But we didnt have 3 misses. We only had 2. Third we had to hit it. We had 3 attempts, but not 3 misses. 3 misses would infer we had the luxury of having a 4th attempt. When we really had 3 attempts.

For me I interpreted as a slip.

I still am not going to take away from what you guys did. Brilliant game on your parts and well positioned on all angles.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 12:45 pm

Also, not sure how many people read my summary of Lassr's posts. But i found it to be very informative. It didnt lead me to 1 person directly. But it helped me see a few people in more of an innocent light than not. Most notably Austin.