Story of the Chaos Order of the Dark Mages(WW)-Game Over

[stessier]

Will anyone counter?

Seriously stess? With three wolves, it would be foolhardy for a real seer to counter. (And you know it).

Why? We've got cards that let any of us Act Seer like. And we've got ones that let us talk to the dead and protect people. Be nice to get a Wolf on Day 1.

[Qantaga]

Why? We've got cards that let any of us Act Seer like. And we've got ones that let us talk to the dead and protect people. Be nice to get a Wolf on Day 1.

I can't tell if you're being deliberately misleading or if you're still under the effects of jet lag.

Our two most powerful "seer-like" cards have likely/presumably already been exhausted. The only one left is Illumination, which is dicey because the information of that one scan then relies on a second card (dealt into the hands of a villager) to get that information from the dead player.

Our only protection is Shield!, but with only one card with three uses (as opposed to three separate cards), the odds are too low of it being in the hands of a villager today to risk exposing a real seer.

There are a few cards that let us talk to the dead. However, that would also require one of those cards being dealt to a villager before they are dealt to a wolf. Even if a villager gets a card that lets them talk to the dead real seer, that real seer gets exactly one scan (maybe not even that many)* if he counters today, instead of staying hidden, letting the night tell us about Bubbles, and potentially getting multiple scans.

*Lassr, what happens if a seer is killed by the dark mages at night (what is the turn order)? Does the seer get to scan before they die and carry that scan information with them to the grave? Or are they killed before they even get the opportunity to scan?

[bb2112]

bb2112's assertion that this is like lynching the Seer is idiotic. You do not lynch the Seer because of the potential for FUTURE information not because of anything he has done that day. Card users possess no more or less potential for future information than any other (non-Seer) player.

Wow dude. You need to put down that pipe you are smoking. Again, either you are not paying attention to what I'm saying, or you are doing your best to cause confusion. Either way it is not helping. I didn't say lynching redrun was like lynching a seer. I said the circumstances are the same. We have some information. We don't know if it is wrong or right at this point. Why lynch the guy that gave us that information right now? There is no good reason. None. We can wait to see if his information pans out or is a red herring. The same way the village should have done with Grund when he claimed seer. It is day one and we have other people with no information we can go after who are much better targets.

I swear at least 5 people said they would lynch Remus, so let's try it again and see if we get better results now that people can read the continued idiocy you are trying to sell.

 Remus West 
 

[bb2112]

*Lassr, what happens if a seer is killed by the dark mages at night (what is the turn order)? Does the seer get to scan before they die and carry that scan information with them to the grave? Or are they killed before they even get the opportunity to scan?

Great question. I was just getting ready to ask the same thing.

[Chaosraven]

 stessier 
 
batter up

[Qantaga]

How does that defy logic? Seriously, what do you expect the wolves to be doing other than trying to appear helpful without really being helpful. You can bet 100% that were I a wolf with a scan card I would use it on someone and, depending on the results, report the use of the card and some sort of results to the village. Doing so allows the wolves to plant a lie - whatever they want us to think the results were as well as the lie by omission of what they may very well have really been - while giving us enough truth - "Hey guys, I used this village beneficial card" - to seem like they are helping.
...

To me, redrun has looked like a wolf playing a long range game and trying to set me up. The claim of scan means jack to me.

I understand what you're saying. I can even see it as a logical wolf play, if it was played alone, but it wasn't.

Here's the heart of the matter for me:

- The wolves have 3 players to hide among 13 spots.
- theo "clears" bb. The village takes bb off the board for lynch consideration and virtually takes theo off the board, too.
- The wolves now have 3 players to hide among 11 spots.

This is the state of the game when redrun "cleared" me. Yes, I understand that redrun might very well be playing a long range game, but is that really in his best interests? And could he convince his 2 partners that it's in the best interests of the wolves as a whole?

By "clearing" me, he has now left the wolves at 3 players to hide in 10 spots, when he could have just burned the Mind's Eye card silently (leaving us to guess about if and when it might turn up for the rest of the game) and kept me in lynch consideration today.

Yes, it could be a long range lynch play. It defies logic to me, but I can see that wolves might use it as a strategy.

I'm not putting redrun on a trusted list, by any means, but I do think it's counter-productive for us to lynch him today.

[Mr Bubbles]

Interesting. Will anyone counter?

 withdraw Bubbles 
 

I've played exactly the way I always have and got burned for it.

I don't know why you think that matters. Silence will get you burned more times than it won't.

When was I silent?
and even when if I was.. when has poking the silents been a good policy. It usually ends up bad.

[redrun]

 withdraw redrun 
 



I believe the Bad Guys to be in:

Newcastle
Remus West
stessier
Mr. Bubbles

Oh my. I've got four folks that I have strong 'could be wolf' feelings about. The top three folks on Chaosraven list... and Chaosraven. So, given this post, I'm more than happy to see if I'm wrong about Chaosraven.

 withdraw Chaosraven 
 

[Mr Bubbles]

Considering how fast the train rolled you can find at least two of the wolves in the group that voted for me.

[Remus West]

By "clearing" me, he has now left the wolves at 3 players to hide in 10 spots, when he could have just burned the Mind's Eye card silently (leaving us to guess about if and when it might turn up for the rest of the game) and kept me in lynch consideration today.

By clearing you he has left 2 wolf players 10 spots to hide as opposed to 3 wolves hiding in 12 slots since many folks refuse to consider him. Thus he actually improved their odds for today being a miss by removing you and himself from consideration.

If all he had done today were to "reveal" a scan of Qantaga I wouldn't be looking to lynch him. What else he has done though is to plant a set up of me for the long term and to react to my vote against him by quickly shifting his own to the other player who had the most votes at that point. You guys are looking at one play through one lens and ignoring the rest of his actions.

[Newcastle]

Interesting. Will anyone counter?

 withdraw Bubbles 
 

I've played exactly the way I always have and got burned for it.

I don't know why you think that matters. Silence will get you burned more times than it won't.

When was I silent?
and even when if I was.. when has poking the silents been a good policy. It usually ends up bad.

one the BIG reasons i did this...people were floating accusations of him being silent, when i felt he wasnt. One thing that surprised me was that Redrun has pretty much disapeared in this game

POST COUNT UP till my last post:

Newcastle - 56
Chaosraven - 53
BB2112 - 51
stessier - 48
theohall - 43
Mr. Bubbles - 35
Remus West - 33
Qantaga - 32
triggercut - 26
El Guapo - 24
RMC - 20
kraegor - 17
redrun - 14

also am not the seer...and i kind of had the feeling bubbles was actually...dont know why...but just did...good job team!

can we now get on the lynching of stessier...or CR?

[Newcastle]

*Lassr, what happens if a seer is killed by the dark mages at night (what is the turn order)? Does the seer get to scan before they die and carry that scan information with them to the grave? Or are they killed before they even get the opportunity to scan?

Great question. I was just getting ready to ask the same thing.

yup, hopefully we can send him a post death PM or seance and he can pass us on along some information.

[Lassr]

*Lassr, what happens if a seer is killed by the dark mages at night (what is the turn order)? Does the seer get to scan before they die and carry that scan information with them to the grave? Or are they killed before they even get the opportunity to scan?

Seer does get a scan in before dying.

[Qantaga]

By clearing you he has left 2 wolf players 10 spots to hide as opposed to 3 wolves hiding in 12 slots since many folks refuse to consider him. Thus he actually improved their odds for today being a miss by removing you and himself from consideration.

In your scenario, it would be 2 in 9 (not 2 in 10). By doing so, he also puts a bigger spotlight on himself than he would by burning the card silently.

You guys are looking at one play through one lens and ignoring the rest of his actions.

What "us guys" (bb can correct me if I misrepresent him) are doing is looking at the events of the day and advocating that it is unwise to lynch redrun today.

[Qantaga]

Seer does get a scan in before dying.

Thanks Lasssr.

[redrun]

Newcastle
Remus West
stessier
Mr. Bubbles

==================

Newcastle ---------- kraegor ----- Qantaga ----- redrun ----- Chaosraven ----- Newcastle ----- stessier ----- Chaosraven ----- stessier
Remus West ---------- bb2112 ----- redrun ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
stessier ---------- Mr. Bubbles ----- RMC ----- redrun ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- ----- ----- -----
Mr. Bubbles ---------- Chaosraven ----- stessier ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

Interesting. We'll have to see how Mr. Bubbles plays out - how long he lives, etc.. While a seer claim is exactly what I think a wolf would do in Mr. Bubbles position, time will tell. He's not been on my radar, so I've got little more to say about that. Note: reading this over, I feel that I need to add the following before someone twists my words. I won't vote for Mr. Bubbles today, I doubt that I'd vote for him tomorrow - there are other folks we can look at now, and the wolves cannot risk letting him live too long if he is the seer.

However, given the following:

16. Toss a dart (Choose 3 players that currently have votes against them and you will be told if those players contain at least 1 wolf.) 1 use

I do find it interesting that we've got
Newcastle voting for Stessier
Stessier voting for Mr. Bubbles.
Mr. Bubbles voting for Stessier.

I've wondered if that card would cause an unusual voting pattern. If one of these came up evil, I'd be willing to test a second one...

[redrun]

Newcastle
Remus West
stessier
Mr. Bubbles

==================

Newcastle ---------- kraegor ----- Qantaga ----- redrun ----- Chaosraven ----- Newcastle ----- stessier ----- Chaosraven ----- stessier
Remus West ---------- bb2112 ----- redrun ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
stessier ---------- Mr. Bubbles ----- RMC ----- redrun ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- ----- ----- -----
Mr. Bubbles ---------- Chaosraven ----- stessier ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

Interesting. We'll have to see how Mr. Bubbles plays out - how long he lives, etc.. While a seer claim is exactly what I think a wolf would do in Mr. Bubbles position, time will tell. He's not been on my radar, so I've got little more to say about that. Note: reading this over, I feel that I need to add the following before someone twists my words. I won't vote for Mr. Bubbles today, I doubt that I'd vote for him tomorrow - there are other folks we can look at now, and the wolves cannot risk letting him live too long if he is the seer.

However, given the following:

16. Toss a dart (Choose 3 players that currently have votes against them and you will be told if those players contain at least 1 wolf.) 1 use

I do find it interesting that we've got
Newcastle voting for Stessier
Stessier voting for Mr. Bubbles.
Mr. Bubbles voting for Stessier.

I've wondered if that card would cause an unusual voting pattern. If one of these came up evil, I'd be willing to test a second one...

OK. No editing.

That last post is wrong and stupid. My thinking is exactly backwards... the wolves would never do this. If they feared toss a dart, they wouldn't vote for each other, if they had toss a dart they wouldn't care.

[Lassr]

Newcastle ---------- kraegor ----- Qantaga ----- redrun ----- Chaosraven ----- Newcastle ----- stessier ----- Chaosraven ----- stessier
BB2112 ---------- Remus West ----- Remus West. ----- Newcastle ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- Remus West ----- ----- -----
theohall ---------- stessier ----- Chasoraven ----- RMC ----- Chaosraven ----- redrun ----- Chaosraven ----- stessier -----
kraegor ---------- Remus West ----- Chasoraven ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Remus West ---------- bb2112 ----- redrun ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
El Guapo ---------- Remus West ----- kraegor ----- RMC ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- ----- ----- -----
stessier ---------- Mr. Bubbles ----- RMC ----- redrun ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- ----- ----- -----
triggercut ---------- El Guapo ----- Remus West ----- RMC ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- ----- ----- -----
Chaosraven ---------- bb2112 ----- redrun ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- stessier ----- ----- ----- -----
Qantaga ---------- theohall ----- stessier ----- Newcastle ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
RMC ---------- Remus West ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
redrun ---------- Qantaga ----- Chasoraven ----- Newcastle ----- Chaosraven ----- ----- ----- -----
Mr. Bubbles ---------- Chaosraven ----- stessier ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
.
.
stessier -4 ---------- Newcastle, theohall, Mr. Bubbles, Chaosraven
Mr. Bubbles -2 -------- El Guapo, RMC
Chaosraven -1 ---------- kraegor
redrun -1 --------- Remus West
Newcastle -1 ---------- Qantaga
Remus West -1 ---------- bb2112

Majority = 7

[stessier]

Newcastle, RMC, and El Guapo.

That's my best guess and with slightly worse than 50/50 odds. I probably still went 0-3.

Have at me. My cards a dud (for this round anyway). I was the Mortician.

[Remus West]

By clearing you he has left 2 wolf players 10 spots to hide as opposed to 3 wolves hiding in 12 slots since many folks refuse to consider him. Thus he actually improved their odds for today being a miss by removing you and himself from consideration.

In your scenario, it would be 2 in 9 (not 2 in 10). By doing so, he also puts a bigger spotlight on himself than he would by burning the card silently.

You guys are looking at one play through one lens and ignoring the rest of his actions.

What "us guys" (bb can correct me if I misrepresent him) are doing is looking at the events of the day and advocating that it is unwise to lynch redrun today.

You are right that it would be 2/9 rather than 10 but it still improves their odds. As for the spotlight on him, how so? It isn't as though we can hope to get more from him so the wolves have zero interest/reason to off him if he is a villager which gives him the perfect excuse for survival as a wolf. I'd say that is a pretty nice light to have on you as a bad guy.

[bb2112]

Give up Q. Remus is not going to see the light. He is stubborn.

And you are exactly right in my sentiments in your post above. RR does not get a pass for the game, but he deserves one for today.

[Lassr]

Thanks Lasssr.

was that parseltongue?

[Qantaga]

Thanks Lasssr.

was that parseltongue?

I'm using my phone today and didn't notice my typo. Maybe it's time for an eye exam.

[Remus West]

Give up Q. Remus is not going to see the light. He is stubborn.

And you are exactly right in my sentiments in your post above. RR does not get a pass for the game, but he deserves one for today.

Maybe my issue is that giving him a pass for today is silly as there is going to be no change in his standing tomorrow. Giving him a pass based on what he has done today is pretty close to the same as suggesting you give him a pass for the game.

[theohall]

My 3... although CR put some doubt in this when voting for stessier...

Chaosraven - because specific folks will not vote for him, yet quickly jump on other trains.
stessier - because he keeps "following" votes - like a wolf using a villager to hide behind. He also has the specific folks will not vote for him thing going, in spite of his actions seeming odd.
RMC - because he has been so quiet and is barely voting - like a wolf trying to be careful - which Chaosraven had been doing.

The Mr B train started and went to N-1 really quick, yet we can't get someone else to N-1? Seems like wolves pushing that train - of which stessier was one of the loudest and, of course, his vote again followed someone else's vote. If Newcastle is a villager, which I believe to be the case, it is stessier hiding behind a villager vote again.

[theohall]

Never placed a vote on Chaosraven
bb2112 - villager per my scan
Remus West - claims he will cast the Nth vote
El Guapo
stessier
triggercut
Qantaga - villager per redrun
RMC


Never placed a vote on stessier

bb2112 - villager per my scan
Kraegor
Remus West
El Guapo
triggercut
RMC
redrun

If these two are wolves and we exclude the suspected villagers, the overlaps are El Guapo, triggercut, Remus West and RMC.

If we go with the theory the wolves are avoiding committing themselves to votes by barely voting at all, the pool is Kraegor, Remus West, RMC, and Mr Bubbles.

Two names appear in all three locations and I am fairly confident either stessier or Chaosraven is a wolf. So, let us test if RMC not voting for either of them has some reason. Remus West claims he would cast the Nth vote on Chaosraven, but this vote review raises doubts about him, yet again.

 RMC 
 

[triggercut]

Give up Q. Remus is not going to see the light. He is stubborn.

And you are exactly right in my sentiments in your post above. RR does not get a pass for the game, but he deserves one for today.

Maybe my issue is that giving him a pass for today is silly as there is going to be no change in his standing tomorrow. Giving him a pass based on what he has done today is pretty close to the same as suggesting you give him a pass for the game.

The idea behind giving redrun a "pass" on day 1 is that he would have been a good candidate to scan for our Seer.

For my thinking he still gets a pass on day one and we hope that if Bubbles is our Seer he picks wisely from a small field and is either able to protect himself or we get a rez card right away. My willingness to "pass" him pretty much disappears after today absent other events.

[Mr Bubbles]

My 3... although CR put some doubt in this when voting for stessier...

Chaosraven - because specific folks will not vote for him, yet quickly jump on other trains.
stessier - because he keeps "following" votes - like a wolf using a villager to hide behind. He also has the specific folks will not vote for him thing going, in spite of his actions seeming odd.
RMC - because he has been so quiet and is barely voting - like a wolf trying to be careful - which Chaosraven had been doing.

The Mr B train started and went to N-1 really quick, yet we can't get someone else to N-1? Seems like wolves pushing that train - of which stessier was one of the loudest and, of course, his vote again followed someone else's vote. If Newcastle is a villager, which I believe to be the case, it is stessier hiding behind a villager vote again.

See that is always my issue and why people just seemed lazy with this vote. When a train goes that easy it almost always is off base. But I didn't want to take the chance of not stating my role, so I wasn't about to hope beyond hope that someone would back off. I agree with your three and the reasoning. I am favoring Newcastle as good and Q at this point. Remus.. I am reluctant to let him off the hook, but I don't necessarily suspect him.

[Newcastle]

Give up Q. Remus is not going to see the light. He is stubborn.

And you are exactly right in my sentiments in your post above. RR does not get a pass for the game, but he deserves one for today.

Maybe my issue is that giving him a pass for today is silly as there is going to be no change in his standing tomorrow. Giving him a pass based on what he has done today is pretty close to the same as suggesting you give him a pass for the game.

The idea behind giving redrun a "pass" on day 1 is that he would have been a good candidate to scan for our Seer.

For my thinking he still gets a pass on day one and we hope that if Bubbles is our Seer he picks wisely from a small field and is either able to protect himself or we get a rez card right away. My willingness to "pass" him pretty much disappears after today absent other events.

oooh i hadnt thought about the rez card.....well i think its a given that if someone gets it...you use it ASAP on Bubbles (if he should die tonight of course...blahblahblah...but i think he's true so..)...but that adds a WHOLE new wrinkle to things actually.


LASSR - if someone is resurected during the day time....are they given a card?

[triggercut]

Rez card can only be used on a lynched player, so that wouldn't be applicable as long as we're not stupid enough to lynch an uncontested Seer.

We're not that stupid, right? Right?

Anyway, I misspoke. I meant the seance card, which allows us to have a dead player make a single post.

Also, there's a Talk To The Dead card, but that looks like a 1:1 PM between a player and a dead player that requires us to once again take on faith what is said and reported.

[Newcastle]

Ah crud...was hoping the rez card would work on a night kill...gah...

[stessier]

stessier - because he keeps "following" votes - like a wolf using a villager to hide behind. He also has the specific folks will not vote for him thing going, in spite of his actions seeming odd.

Since you like to get hung up on things, I'll repeat myself - I am not following voters. I vote where I see a chance to lynch someone if I don't have a reason not to - like, you know, everyone else.

[theohall]

stessier - because he keeps "following" votes - like a wolf using a villager to hide behind. He also has the specific folks will not vote for him thing going, in spite of his actions seeming odd.

Since you like to get hung up on things, I'll repeat myself - I am not following voters. I vote where I see a chance to lynch someone if I don't have a reason not to - like, you know, everyone else.

You SAY you are not following voters. Outside of the Mr Bubbles vote, every single vote of yours has been darn near immediately after someone else placed a NEW vote on someone who had no votes prior to the NEW vote. That is FOLLOWING and it is an ACTION which can be ascribed to your voting pattern, regardless of your words.

[bb2112]

Giving him a pass based on what he has done today is pretty close to the same as suggesting you give him a pass for the game.

Wow. Your statements are getting more and more rediculous.

[stessier]

stessier - because he keeps "following" votes - like a wolf using a villager to hide behind. He also has the specific folks will not vote for him thing going, in spite of his actions seeming odd.

Since you like to get hung up on things, I'll repeat myself - I am not following voters. I vote where I see a chance to lynch someone if I don't have a reason not to - like, you know, everyone else.

You SAY you are not following voters. Outside of the Mr Bubbles vote, every single vote of yours has been darn near immediately after someone else placed a NEW vote on someone who had no votes prior to the NEW vote. That is FOLLOWING and it is an ACTION which can be ascribed to your voting pattern, regardless of your words.

It's so sad to see you stick your head in the sand once again. Or maybe a better visual is sticking your fingers in your ears. Either way, you are wrong again. But you seem happy, so who am I to judge?

[triggercut]

Hmm. Perhaps we've had other trains get to N-2, but I'd like to focus on three of them.

Way back in July(!), we took Remus to N-2. It's on page 3.

Remus West -5 -------- El Guapo, bb2112, RMC, triggercut, kraegor

Remus never went to n-1. Chaosraven publicly declined, saying that he was saving his vote against Remus for the killing blow. It was humorous, and in keeping with CR's persona with regards to Remus. Perhaps that's all it was.

Then we later got CR to N-2. Page 12:

Chaosraven -5 ---------- Newcastle, kraegor, Mr. Bubbles, redrun, theohall

That vote train never went further.

Finally, we put Mr Bubbles to N-1 for an hour. That's one page back on 13:

Mr. Bubbles -6 -------- bb2112, El Guapo, RMC, stessier, triggercut, chaosraven

Here's where my vote is going--and probably staying today--and why.

I put Mr Bubbles at N-2 for three reasons. First, I honestly thought Mr B was acting oddly and had suspected him. I said as much when I put him at N-2. What I left unsaid is that, secondly, I wanted to see what the reaction of other players would be to that N-2. Sure enough, less than ten minutes later CR slaps vote number 6 on him. That's stuck in my craw since, and has me totally thinking in a new way about Chaosraven. It felt opportunistic as hell.

I cannot shake the idea that perhaps Chaosraven is on a team with Remus West. The lack of a 6th vote on Remus with the too-easy "Obviously I want to be the killing vote on him" and the fact that Remus isn't on Chaos's vote is troubling to me. I could vote for either, but for now I think Chaos's behavior is the most....curious to me. I may be totally misreading this, but it's worth my vote.

 Chaosraven 
 

[RMC]

 Withdraw Mr Bubbles 
 


Well that sucked.

My reread was totally wrong... <sigh>

[theohall]

stessier - because he keeps "following" votes - like a wolf using a villager to hide behind. He also has the specific folks will not vote for him thing going, in spite of his actions seeming odd.

Since you like to get hung up on things, I'll repeat myself - I am not following voters. I vote where I see a chance to lynch someone if I don't have a reason not to - like, you know, everyone else.

You SAY you are not following voters. Outside of the Mr Bubbles vote, every single vote of yours has been darn near immediately after someone else placed a NEW vote on someone who had no votes prior to the NEW vote. That is FOLLOWING and it is an ACTION which can be ascribed to your voting pattern, regardless of your words.

It's so sad to see you stick your head in the sand once again. Or maybe a better visual is sticking your fingers in your ears. Either way, you are wrong again. But you seem happy, so who am I to judge?

Other than your initial Mr Bubbles vote, when did your vote NOT follow someone else's vote? Hmmmm.... Oh... that's right. Actions speak louder than words. Why so defensive when you are not even close to being lynched?

[theohall]

Let's try this again, then, since someone else is finally questioning Chaosraven's actions.

 Chaosraven 
 

[Chaosraven]

Now there's a suspicious dude for sure.