Story of the Chaos Order of the Dark Mages(WW)-Game Over

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Aug 14, 2012 11:07 pm

El Guapo wrote:
triggercut wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
triggercut wrote:Oh, and Remus West

Here's the question I'm pondering right now. Assume Remus is indeed a wolf. Who is your best guess right now for Remus' remaining wolf partner?
If Remus comes back a wolf, that's terrific. It puts things at 6-1. Given a successful Evil attack overnight, we start "tomorrow" out at 5-1.

At that point hopefully we have some guidance. I remain hopeful of a Seance card being played. Barring that, I guess it gets kind of nasty.
No, I get that, and I'm not suggesting that, if we conclude that Remus is indeed a wolf, that we nonetheless try to lynch his partner first. This question is part of my due diligence on Remus West's possible wolfitude - I'm trying to evaluate it through the conduct towards him of his wolf partner.

Reminds me: you never really answered my question on this, trig.

Remus and (to a lesser degree) Kraegor's absences are interesting, though. Remus, do you have anything to add?

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Tue Aug 14, 2012 11:33 pm

El Guapo wrote: Reminds me: you never really answered my question on this, trig.

I thought I had.

My thought is that at this point--without input from others supporting Remus--that we take him down today. If he's a wolf, we assess things on Day 4 based on kill targets, votes, and see if we finally get to contact Bubbles. In other words, if Remus is a Wolf, the third wolf is a problem for Day 4's village to worry over. If Remus is a Wolf I think we can draw some firm conclusions that will pretty much guarantee a Village win if not on Day 4, then Day 5.

If Remus isn't a wolf, then we're basically fooked, and we need to know right now. If he's a villager, everything I've been sort of playing off of is wrong, and I'm back at square one and am looking at everyone suspiciously.

Kraegor · Post by **Kraegor** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:52 am

El Guapo wrote: My gut's saying Remus right now, but I think my main concern is the apparent lack of opposition right now. I know that wolves can and do push for each other to give themselves cred, but with only two wolves left, would that be too risky now? But then, back on the first hand, the wolves could've pretty easily (I think) gotten Remus lynched on day one and I would think that they would jump on a chance to lynch Villager Remus, when they could have done so probably without blame falling on any one person / wolf.

newcastle did a decent amount of damage control to derail the Remus train on day 1. Remus has been angry and terse for most of the game which certainly speaks to frustration of some sort. These two elements together tend to back things into a corner.

The one thing that bugged me about remus' play was how he went after redrun after I went after theohall on day 1 (clarification: I pushed the bb2112 vote in order to confirm his status which would have lead to me then pushing a vote to lynch theohall on day 1). That disconnect has me leaning towards casting the killing vote on Remus. His move struck me as an attempt to muddy the waters. He didn't push for a logical sequence that would have given us certainty on 2 players. He pushed for a sequence to clear only 1.

Remus' play in addidtion to theo's hyper-defensiveness in this regard has piqued my interest.

I am concerned RMC is getting a pass but that's how it is with silents.

triggercut is being reasonable which is something I'm not accustomed to. He did hop aggressively onto newcastle and did not let go even after I attempted to trip him up on his initial vague reasoning. So I'm prone to trusting him at this point.

bb2112 was also quick to attack newcastle.

el guapo - yer on my radar, you've been lying low, not as silent as rmc but close. today was the most you've posted. the one thing that's got you in the clear was newcastle's irrational attack on you toward the end of his lunacy. although he did have a valid point... course being suspicious of a dead guy... I could relate since when I first read the notice I thought I was the one that was dead...

stessier - unclear

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:16 am

My absence has been due to flying to Colorado today and playing waterguns with my nephews all afternoon then reading with them and my niece then passing out for several hours due to exhaustion.

I will say this right now then I'm going back to sleep - Kraegor, you want to know why I've been frustrated this entire game then all you need do is look at stessier's vote on my. It outlines exactly what I knew was coming. Very early on I realized I shouldn't have played at all because a good portion of players would kill me off regardless of what I might do. You mention my going after redrun day 1. Go back and read everything I said and everything he did "knowing" I'm good. I wasn't targeting him to get information. I was going after him because I felt he was Evil and setting me up for a day like today when Evil needs us to miss and I make an easy scapegoat.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 4:49 am

If Remus West turns up to be a wolf, I'd be looking hard at RMC, vice Kraegor based on the Day One voting.

And, Kraegor, while I've been difficult, Remus West has done this same thing in three straight games - all of which he was evil. I know the odds suggest he should not be evil again. The issue for me is his almost complete lack of voting. He is leaving nothing for us to decide his villager-ness while looking like a very guilty wolf for barely committing to anything. I am not buying this style as "good" after letting it slide last game.

Day One - Remus West voted for bb2112 (likely Villager), redrun (known villager), and cast the killing vote on Chaosraven (known villager) also preventing El Guapo from wasting one use of the Deadline! card.

Day Two - Remus West voted for Newcastle in the midst of the Newcastle train. I think this was him hiding amongst the villagers to garner trust, since Newcastle was going down anyway.

Aside for Day Two - RMC also stayed off the Newcastle vote completely and inexplicably voted for El Guapo. (Yes, I screwed up pulling my vote from Newcastle.)

Day Three - Remus West has yet to commit to anything, yet again, exhibiting the behavior he has shown when evil - a seeming unwillingness to throw a vote out there to garner information. Good Remus West works to help the village gather information. Evil Remus West plays too carefully with his votes.

While Remus West is claiming the village would kill him off regardless of what he would do, his play is not conducive to finding wolves. I find it telling he only addressed Kraegor in his last post. Why not RMC who has not committed either? Shouldn't he be addressing both of them in his effort to convince them not to cast the lynching vote?

1) RMC is his partner - most obvious conclusion
2) Kraegor is his partner and Remus West wrote that post to confuse us. (find this doubtful)
3) Remus West has basically accepted that none of the rest of the village will pull their vote.
4) A wolf has already voted for Remus West who is actually a villager (consider this least likely) and we are "screwed" tomorrow - but not as badly as it appears, thanks to RMC not committing either.

This makes Remus West look really, really guilty.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 9:04 am

Day 3
BB2112 ---------- Remus West --------
theohall ---------- kraegor -------- Remus West
kraegor ---------- --------
Remus West ---------- --------
El Guapo ---------- --------
stessier ---------- Remus West --------
triggercut ---------- Remus West --------
RMC ---------- --------
.
.
Remus West -4 ---------- bb2112, stessier, triggercut, theohall
----------
----------
--------
---------
----------
----------
----------

Majority = 5

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 9:18 am

theohall wrote:If Remus West turns up to be a wolf, I'd be looking hard at RMC, vice Kraegor based on the Day One voting.

And, Kraegor, while I've been difficult, Remus West has done this same thing in three straight games - all of which he was evil. I know the odds suggest he should not be evil again. The issue for me is his almost complete lack of voting. He is leaving nothing for us to decide his villager-ness while looking like a very guilty wolf for barely committing to anything. I am not buying this style as "good" after letting it slide last game.

Day One - Remus West voted for bb2112 (likely Villager), redrun (known villager), and cast the killing vote on Chaosraven (known villager) also preventing El Guapo from wasting one use of the Deadline! card.

Day Two - Remus West voted for Newcastle in the midst of the Newcastle train. I think this was him hiding amongst the villagers to garner trust, since Newcastle was going down anyway.

Aside for Day Two - RMC also stayed off the Newcastle vote completely and inexplicably voted for El Guapo. (Yes, I screwed up pulling my vote from Newcastle.)

Day Three - Remus West has yet to commit to anything, yet again, exhibiting the behavior he has shown when evil - a seeming unwillingness to throw a vote out there to garner information. Good Remus West works to help the village gather information. Evil Remus West plays too carefully with his votes.

While Remus West is claiming the village would kill him off regardless of what he would do, his play is not conducive to finding wolves. I find it telling he only addressed Kraegor in his last post. Why not RMC who has not committed either? Shouldn't he be addressing both of them in his effort to convince them not to cast the lynching vote?

1) RMC is his partner - most obvious conclusion
2) Kraegor is his partner and Remus West wrote that post to confuse us. (find this doubtful)
3) Remus West has basically accepted that none of the rest of the village will pull their vote.
4) A wolf has already voted for Remus West who is actually a villager (consider this least likely) and we are "screwed" tomorrow - but not as badly as it appears, thanks to RMC not committing either.

This makes Remus West look really, really guilty.

So after pushing for Remus on day one, and not moving my vote until I was basically told I was a wolf for staying on my vote to Remus, I am now his partner?

Also - There are 8 of us, 4 of us have not voted? Why am I the only one that has not 'committed'?

Your 'logic' and I use that word very loosely to describe how you came to the conclusions above are just wrong.

Why is it bad that I think El Guapo was/is playing wolfy? I did not vote for newcastle over the weekend, but was checking in and would have voted for him as I stated. I was waiting to play the quantum shift card, and did not want anything wonky to happen when I played it. And I was not convinced he was on team evil..I was wrong, and you all were right.

I wanted to lynch Remus, but now I am not convinced he is on team evil. I would rather look at others. If we just want to basically say, well he has been a wolf for the last few games, so let's lynch him, then fine I can get behind that. But his early vote, while a dumb play does not make him a wolf....

So if I vote for him now, does that mean I am more likely a villager? Or would I just be attempting to look like a villager?

<shrug>

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 9:45 am

withdraw Remus

I'd like a bit to finish going through the vote count. I have no problem with the vote, just want a few hours.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 10:22 am

Day 1 - Final Vote Count

Majority was 7.

Chaos acc bb2112 (1)
Chaos wd bb2112 (1)
Chaos acc redrun (2)
Chaos acc Bubbles (6)
Chaos wd Bubbles (2)
Chaos acc stessier (4)
Chaos wd stessier (2)

theo acc stessier (1) *accused everyone "silent"
theo wd stessier (0)
theo acc Chaos (1)
theo wd Chaos (1)
theo acc RMC (1)
theo wd RMC (3)
theo acc Chaos (3)
theo wd Chaos (3)
theo acc redrun (3)
theo wd redrun (3)
theo acc Chaos (5)
theo wd Chaos (3)
theo acc stessier (2)
theo wd stessier (3)
theo acc RMC (1)
theo wd RMC (0)
theo acc Chaos (3)

El Guapo acc Remus (1)
El Guapo wd Remus (3)
El Guapo acc kraegor (1)
El Guapo wd kraegor (0)
El Guapo acc RMC (2)
El Guapo wd RMC (1)
El Guapo acc Bubbles (2)

Newcastle acc kraegor (1)
Newcastle wd kraegor (0)
Newcastle acc Qantaga (2)
Newcastle wd Qantaga (0)
Newcastle acc redrun (1)
Newcastle wd redrun (0)
Newcastle acc Chaos (3)
Newcastle wd Chaos (2)
Newcastle acc Newcastle (1)
Newcastle wd Newcastle (1)
Newcastle acc stessier (1)
Newcastle wd stessier (0)
Newcastle acc Chaos (2)
Newcastle wd Chaos (4)
Newcastle acc stessier (1)
Newcastle wd stessier (1)
Newcastle acc Chaos (5)

Remus acc bb2112 (2)
Remus wd bb2112 (0)
Remus acc redrun (1)
Remus wd redrun (0)
Remus acc Chaos (7)

redrun acc Qantaga (1)
redrun wd Qantaga (1)
redrun acc Chaos (2)
redrun wd Chaos (3)
redrun acc Newcastle (3)
redrun wd Newcastle (2)
redrun acc Chaos (4)
redrun wd Chaos (1)
redrun acc stessier (2)

RMC acc Remus (3)
RMC wd Remus (0)
RMC acc Bubbles (3)
RMC wd Bubbles (1)
RMC acc Remus (2)

trig acc El Guapo (1)
trig wd El Guapo (0)
trig acc Remus (4)
trig wd Remus (3)
trig acc RMC (4)
trig wd RMC (0)
trig acc Bubbles (5)
trig wd Bubbles (5)
trig acc Chaos (2)

Qantaga acc theohall (1)
Qantaga wd theo (0)
Qantaga acc stessier (1)
Qantaga wd stessier (0)
Qantaga acc Newcastle (2)

kraegor acc Remus (5)
kraegor wd Remus (2)
kraegor acc Chaos (4)

bb2112 wd Remus (4)
bb2112 acc Remus (4)
bb2112 wd Remus (1)
bb2112 acc Newcastle (2)
bb2112 wd Newcastle (1)
bb2112 acc Bubbles (1)
bb2112 wd Bubbles (3)
bb2112 acc Remus (1)

stessier acc Bubbles (1)
stessier wd Bubbles (0)
stessier acc RMC (3)
stessier wd RMC (2)
stessier acc redrun (4)
stessier wd redrun (2)
stessier acc Bubbles (4)
stessier wd Bubbles (4)
stessier acc RMC (1)
stessier wd RMC (0)
stessier acc Chaos (6)

Bubbles acc Chaos (4)
Bubbles wd Chaos (2)
Bubbles acc stessier (3)
Bubbles wd stessier (1)
Bubbles acc Chaos (4)

Edit: Fixed kraegor final vote.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 10:53 am

Day 1 - Final Vote Count

Select votes

...El Guapo acc Remus (1)
......bb2112 acc Remus (2)
.........RMC acc Remus (3)
............trig acc Remus (4)
...............kraegor acc Remus (5)
............bb2112 wd Remus (4)
.........El Guapo wd Remus (3)
............bb2112 acc Remus (4)
.........trig wd Remus (3)
......kraegor wd Remus (2)
...bb2112 wd Remus (1)
RMC wd Remus (0)
...bb2112 acc Remus (1)
......RMC acc Remus (2)

...theo acc Chaos (1)
......redrun acc Chaos (2)
.........Newcastle acc Chaos (3)
......Newcastle wd Chaos (2)
...theo wd Chaos (1)
......Newcastle acc Chaos (2)
.........theo acc Chaos (3)
............kraegor acc Chaos (4)
.........redrun wd Chaos (3)
............Bubbles acc Chaos (4)
.........theo wd Chaos (3)
............redrun acc Chaos (4)
...............theo acc Chaos (5)
............Newcastle wd Chaos (4)
.........theo wd Chaos (3)
......Bubbles wd Chaos (2)
...redrun wd Chaos (1)
......trig acc Chaos (2)
.........theo acc CHaos (3)
............Bubbles acc Chaos (4)
...............Newcastle acc Chaos (5)
..................stessier acc Chaos (6)
.....................Remus acc Chaos (7)

...stessier acc Bubbles (1)
stessier wd Bubbles (0)
...bb2112 acc Bubbles (1)
......El Guapo acc Bubbles (2)
.........RMC acc Bubbles (3)
............stessier acc Bubbles (4)
...............trig acc Bubbles (5)
..................Chaos acc Bubbles (6)
...............trig wd Bubbles (5)
............stessier wd Bubbles (4)
.........bb2112 wd Bubbles (3)
......Chaos wd Bubbles (2)
...RMC wd Bubbles (1)

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:19 am

Some pretty cool stuff Stess.

Kraegor · Post by **Kraegor** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:54 am

Too bad its wrong, huh

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:57 am

Kraegor wrote:Too bad its wrong, huh

Kraegor · Post by **Kraegor** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:00 pm

I never voted for Qantaga. I voted to kill Chaos

search.php?keywords=&terms=all&author=kraegor&fid" target="_blank[]=16&sc=1&sf=all&sr=posts&sk=t&sd=d&st=30&ch=-1&t=0&submit=Search

Kraegor · Post by **Kraegor** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:00 pm

search.php?keywords=&terms=all&author=k ... mit=Search

Kraegor · Post by **Kraegor** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:01 pm

/sigh whatever...

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:08 pm

Day 1 - Final Vote Count

Majority was 7.

Spoiler:

Chaos acc bb2112 (1)
Chaos wd bb2112 (1)
Chaos acc redrun (2)
Chaos acc Bubbles (6)
Chaos wd Bubbles (2)
Chaos acc stessier (4)
Chaos wd stessier (2)

theo acc stessier (1) *accused everyone "silent"
theo wd stessier (0)
theo acc Chaos (1)
theo wd Chaos (1)
theo acc RMC (1)
theo wd RMC (3)
theo acc Chaos (3)
theo wd Chaos (3)
theo acc redrun (3)
theo wd redrun (3)
theo acc Chaos (5)
theo wd Chaos (3)
theo acc stessier (2)
theo wd stessier (3)
theo acc RMC (1)
theo wd RMC (0)
theo acc Chaos (3)

El Guapo acc Remus (1)
El Guapo wd Remus (3)
El Guapo acc kraegor (1)
El Guapo wd kraegor (0)
El Guapo acc RMC (2)
El Guapo wd RMC (1)
El Guapo acc Bubbles (2)

Newcastle acc kraegor (1)
Newcastle wd kraegor (0)
Newcastle acc Qantaga (2)
Newcastle wd Qantaga (0)
Newcastle acc redrun (1)
Newcastle wd redrun (0)
Newcastle acc Chaos (3)
Newcastle wd Chaos (2)
Newcastle acc Newcastle (1)
Newcastle wd Newcastle (1)
Newcastle acc stessier (1)
Newcastle wd stessier (0)
Newcastle acc Chaos (2)
Newcastle wd Chaos (4)
Newcastle acc stessier (1)
Newcastle wd stessier (1)
Newcastle acc Chaos (5)

Remus acc bb2112 (2)
Remus wd bb2112 (0)
Remus acc redrun (1)
Remus wd redrun (0)
Remus acc Chaos (7)

redrun acc Qantaga (1)
redrun wd Qantaga (1)
redrun acc Chaos (2)
redrun wd Chaos (3)
redrun acc Newcastle (3)
redrun wd Newcastle (2)
redrun acc Chaos (4)
redrun wd Chaos (1)
redrun acc stessier (2)

RMC acc Remus (3)
RMC wd Remus (0)
RMC acc Bubbles (3)
RMC wd Bubbles (1)
RMC acc Remus (2)

trig acc El Guapo (1)
trig wd El Guapo (0)
trig acc Remus (4)
trig wd Remus (3)
trig acc RMC (4)
trig wd RMC (0)
trig acc Bubbles (5)
trig wd Bubbles (5)
trig acc Chaos (2)

Qantaga acc theohall (1)
Qantaga wd theo (0)
Qantaga acc stessier (1)
Qantaga wd stessier (0)
Qantaga acc Newcastle (2)

kraegor acc Remus (5)
kraegor wd Remus (2)
kraegor acc Chaos (4)

bb2112 wd Remus (4)
bb2112 acc Remus (4)
bb2112 wd Remus (1)
bb2112 acc Newcastle (2)
bb2112 wd Newcastle (1)
bb2112 acc Bubbles (1)
bb2112 wd Bubbles (3)
bb2112 acc Remus (1)

stessier acc Bubbles (1)
stessier wd Bubbles (0)
stessier acc RMC (3)
stessier wd RMC (2)
stessier acc redrun (4)
stessier wd redrun (2)
stessier acc Bubbles (4)
stessier wd Bubbles (4)
stessier acc RMC (1)
stessier wd RMC (0)
stessier acc Chaos (6)

Bubbles acc Chaos (4)
Bubbles wd Chaos (2)
Bubbles acc stessier (3)
Bubbles wd stessier (1)
Bubbles acc Chaos (4)

Some thoughts

Newcastle - if kraegor is a Villager, then Newcastle only voted for Villagers (YMMV).
theohall - if RMC is a Villager, then theo only voted for Villagers (YMNV)
RMC only voted for Bubbles and Remus
If RMC and kraegor are both Villagera, the only one with a worse record than Newcastle is me (at least he voted for a wolf!)

Edit to fix kraegor final vote.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:11 pm

Kraegor wrote:I never voted for Qantaga. I voted to kill Chaos

search.php?keywords=&terms=all&author=kraegor&fid" target="_blank[]=16&sc=1&sf=all&sr=posts&sk=t&sd=d&st=30&ch=-1&t=0&submit=Search

I got it right in 2 out of 3 places!

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:33 pm

Day 2 - Final Vote Count

This was the wild day. There were no votes cast before the deadline was announced.

Spoiler:

Against Newcastle (6): El Guapo, triggercut, bb2112, Remus, stessier, redrun, (kraegor)
Against El Guapo (1): RMC
Against kraegor (1): theohall

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:48 pm

Day 2 - Final Vote Count

Thoughts and questions -

Why was Q chosen over bb2112?
Why did theo move his vote off Newcastle and onto kraegor?
A redrun quote kind of counts in trig's favor in retrospect (the last line). That actually makes me sad as he has really been giving me the heebie geebies.
El Guapo's first vote and alleged card use today seems to count in his favor. Against him is that he was around at the time of Q's death. For him was Newcastle pointing out his Bubbles slip. Against him - his Bubbles slip. ***Le sigh.***
There was real doubt by a number of people as to the guilt of Newcastle due to his having no card at the time of Q's death. Despite that, Remus put a vote on Newcastle knowing he'd be away past the deadline. It moved him to 4.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:17 pm

hopefully really quickly 'cause I'm on lunch:

1. I don't specifically know why Qantaga was chosen other than the obvious--he'd been scanned by redrun. Didn't say it at the time because I was hoping the wolves wouldn't notice, but redrun playing the swipe on Newcastle plus Q's death proved redrun 100% as villager to me. Guess Team Evil saw that too.

2. That was exceptionally, unbelievably odd to me. Still is. At the time it was late night on a Saturday night. The deadline was about 9 hours away, on a Sunday morning. I had no idea at the time whether anyone else was even going check in before the deadline (stessier had said he'd check in, but that was hours earlier and I figured he'd gone to bed). At a time when a deadlocked vote could result in no one hanging, theohall took Newcastle from 4 votes to 3, and allowed Newcastle to piggyback onto El Guapo to put him at 2 votes. It was a dangerous situation without knowing that Remus, stessier, and redrun (I think that's the order of votes) would actually come in before deadline to vote on Newc and put him in the noose.

3. I think that redrun quote makes me look wolfier, but maybe I'm looking at it too literally. If I'm putting off heebie jeebies, it's because after my embarrassing exit from the last game I've decided not to let these games get under my skin again like I had there. I'm not generally an asshole, but I sure was there, and no matter which team I'm on in a game going forward, I'm not doing that ever again.

4. That Bubbles slip has been causing me consternation. No way a member of Team Evil doesn't know who their kill target was...unless it was a ham-handed and effective way to throw us off. I dunno. Smells villager-y from here.

5. Looking at it now, it looks like a "What the hell are you doing, theohall?" kind of vote, which is now making me reconsider a bit my feelings on my Remus vote.

That was longer than I meant to be!

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:20 pm

One other thing.

When theohall moved his vote off Newcastle and on to Kraegor, Newcastle had a couple of choices of where to put his piggyback vote on. Instead of joining theohall on Kraegor, he joined RMC on El Guapo.

Perhaps that's nothing, but just occurred that it could be interesting to bring to light.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:22 pm

triggercut wrote:
El Guapo wrote: Reminds me: you never really answered my question on this, trig.

I thought I had.

My thought is that at this point--without input from others supporting Remus--that we take him down today. If he's a wolf, we assess things on Day 4 based on kill targets, votes, and see if we finally get to contact Bubbles. In other words, if Remus is a Wolf, the third wolf is a problem for Day 4's village to worry over. If Remus is a Wolf I think we can draw some firm conclusions that will pretty much guarantee a Village win if not on Day 4, then Day 5.

If Remus isn't a wolf, then we're basically fooked, and we need to know right now. If he's a villager, everything I've been sort of playing off of is wrong, and I'm back at square one and am looking at everyone suspiciously.

I mean, you gave that answer before, but didn't speculate as I was hoping on possible wolf partners, which is what I was looking for. That's fair enough if you don't want to, though. I have some time now think about that and hopefully go back through the thread some more.

By the way, since it is evidently ok to disclose cards you had but didn't play, I had "extra vote" yesterday, and didn't use it. There didn't seem to be a good use for it as it played out (no point in surprising the village with it, even if I were to use it on Newcastle). The main possible use for it would've been to break a deadlocked vote to avoid a missed "Deadlines" lynch, but that didn't happen so no need.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:22 pm

That first question is bothersome - why was Q chosen over bb2112?

bb2112 claimed to have the Told Ya So card and offered to let us run him up to prove it. Theo claims to have had the Seconds card netting him the Free Scan and Swipe. I'll take Seconds has 2 uses, but only 1 card. So bb2112 could not have had both Spartacus and Told Ya So. A wolf claiming to have Told Ya So and not actually having it is insanity (imo). So I strongly feel bb2112 is a Villager.

From my point of view, that leaves two wolves in theo, kraegor, Remus, El Guapo, trig, and RMC.

Trig was pushing hard to lynch Newcastle yesterday. His overall helpful but not pushing persona this game was only broken on that point. As mentioned, I was really starting to lean to him as evil. But the Newcastle push is hard to ignore. I think it was an obvious vote, but reading back, not many others did. I'm going with less likely to be evil.

El Guapo hasn't given me much to review, just a bunch of possible coincidences. The Bubbles slip is the one that bugs me the most. Why in the world would he think Bubbles could be a wolf? Who did he mean instead? But then, Newcastle specifically called attention to it at a time when it was not at all clear Newcastle would be lynched. I just don't know.

kraegor has been largely silent, but I didn't see anything particularly damning when he did speak. Yeah, he was on the wrong side of a couple of issues, but I certainly can't throw any stones there. Newcastle voted for him very early on and all his other votes were for Villagers (I'm on the list, so YMMV). My gut says to put him just on the Good Side of I Don't Know.

Remus has baggage. I really wish we would have lynched him over Chaos. He never got a vote from Newcastle. Actually, the only people who voted for him are on this list and he made it all the way to 5. So did two wolves vote for him or did 1 wolf vote for another wolf? Who should have been an easier quick vote on Day 1 than Remus? And then he quick voted the end of Chaos. Was that a wolf trying to save an extra use for a multi use card who figured he'd be lynched anyway? Or just what he said? Need to think on this more.

RMC has been largely absent in my estimation. theo voted for all Villagers plus RMC on Day 1. RMC hasn't cast a lot of votes - only 3 actually - Remus & Bubbles on Day 1 and El Guapo on Day 2.

theo named bb2112. At the time he did it, he certainly seemed extremely human. Re-reading, I'm not so sure. It is a great place for a wolf to hide and also a horrible place for a wolf to hide. The way to prove bb2112 is to lynch theo. theo voted for all Villagers plus RMC on Day 1. He was adamant that bb2112 not need to play the Told Ya So card. Yet yesterday, despite a diatribe against Newcastle, he voted for kraegor - the one day where "Leading vote getter" was lynched at the deadline. That "blank vote" (since kraegor was only at 1) theoretically made it harder to lynch Newcastle.

I hate this part because I always end up looking like a fool at the end and know there are

s shouting at the screen with how obvious it is and I'm a rube for missing it.

I need to think.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:33 pm

Lassr wrote:Day 3
BB2112 ---------- Remus West --------
theohall ---------- kraegor -------- Remus West
kraegor ---------- --------
Remus West ---------- --------
El Guapo ---------- --------
stessier ---------- Remus West --------
triggercut ---------- Remus West --------
RMC ---------- --------
.
.
Remus West -4 ---------- bb2112, stessier, triggercut, theohall
----------
----------
--------
---------
----------
----------
----------

Majority = 5

The n-1 status on Remus - stessier has since withdrawn his vote.

My gut sense with two wolves out there is that the wolves do not want to lynch the other even for "I told you!" cred if they can at all avoid it. So if Remus is a wolf, his partner is *probably* among Kraegor, RMC, me, or now with stessier off I'd add him. Interesting with stessier - risky for him to let Remus sit at n-1 for awhile, though he may have wanted a time to pull off that seemed less suspicious.

If Remus is not a wolf, we flip it and bb, trig, theo, move up the list, with stessier halfway again. Trig does not seem suspicious to me, so I'd focus mainly on bb or theo.

Anyways, gut thoughts from the Remus vote, going to take those into a readthrough.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:35 pm

triggercut wrote:hopefully really quickly 'cause I'm on lunch:

1. I don't specifically know why Qantaga was chosen other than the obvious--he'd been scanned by redrun. Didn't say it at the time because I was hoping the wolves wouldn't notice, but redrun playing the swipe on Newcastle plus Q's death proved redrun 100% as villager to me. Guess Team Evil saw that too.

He was effectively chosen at 1:37pm and then killed 7 hours later. Newcastle seemingly contrived the argument to get the vote on Q, so he could have equally contrived it on bb2112. While I agree the combination of Q's death and the swipe card proved redrun, I don't think the redrun/Q combo would have been anymore trustworthy than the theo/bb2112 combo is now (had they instead taken out bb2112).

One reason not to take out bb2112, though, is because then you have to take out theo at night or else it makes him look like a wolf and we lynch him, which a wolf wouldn't want. I'm not saying that's the case, just something that I keep going back to when I hear the

s laughing in the night.

2. That was exceptionally, unbelievably odd to me. Still is. At the time it was late night on a Saturday night. The deadline was about 9 hours away, on a Sunday morning. I had no idea at the time whether anyone else was even going check in before the deadline (stessier had said he'd check in, but that was hours earlier and I figured he'd gone to bed). At a time when a deadlocked vote could result in no one hanging, theohall took Newcastle from 4 votes to 3, and allowed Newcastle to piggyback onto El Guapo to put him at 2 votes. It was a dangerous situation without knowing that Remus, stessier, and redrun (I think that's the order of votes) would actually come in before deadline to vote on Newc and put him in the noose.

Yeah.

3. I think that redrun quote makes me look wolfier, but maybe I'm looking at it too literally. If I'm putting off heebie jeebies, it's because after my embarrassing exit from the last game I've decided not to let these games get under my skin again like I had there. I'm not generally an asshole, but I sure was there, and no matter which team I'm on in a game going forward, I'm not doing that ever again.

The way I see it, redrun says you were asking everyone to just vote without thinking. I don't see it that way, but if you do, it should also be noted that the target was Newcastle. It's a mighty deep play to rush a vote to net us a wolf - not saying you aren't capable, just that it hasn't been part of your repertoire.

4. That Bubbles slip has been causing me consternation. No way a member of Team Evil doesn't know who their kill target was...unless it was a ham-handed and effective way to throw us off. I dunno. Smells villager-y from here.

I agree with the first part - no way he forgets. So what if it was a name that was first and foremost on his mind because they had just killed him? That's what is bugging me. Which typing my last post, I tried typing bb2112 and it came out Bubble because I was thinking about this topic. Slips are very, very rarely actually slips which is why this bugs me all the more.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:35 pm

El Guapo wrote:
I mean, you gave that answer before, but didn't speculate as I was hoping on possible wolf partners, which is what I was looking for. That's fair enough if you don't want to, though. I have some time now think about that and hopefully go back through the thread some more.

By the way, since it is evidently ok to disclose cards you had but didn't play, I had "extra vote" yesterday, and didn't use it. There didn't seem to be a good use for it as it played out (no point in surprising the village with it, even if I were to use it on Newcastle). The main possible use for it would've been to break a deadlocked vote to avoid a missed "Deadlines" lynch, but that didn't happen so no need.

Did you think that perhaps playing it and announcing as such would,

1. tell everyone what was up, so there'd be no surprise, and
2. burn the card so it wouldn't fall into the hands of the wolves?

Hmm....it has 3 uses. Still, burning a use wouldn't have been a bad thing, especially since we don't know that it hadn't been used before.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:38 pm

stessier wrote:
El Guapo hasn't given me much to review, just a bunch of possible coincidences. The Bubbles slip is the one that bugs me the most. Why in the world would he think Bubbles could be a wolf? Who did he mean instead? But then, Newcastle specifically called attention to it at a time when it was not at all clear Newcastle would be lynched. I just don't know.

On this - I'm assuming that you're referring to day 2 (the short deadlines day). I really paid essentially zero attention to this thread last week. I think I opened it a couple times on Monday, then maybe once before the weekend. Busy, and just for whatever reason my interest wasn't there. So I popped open the thread on Saturday morning, saw the deadline, and since I was going to be in New Hampshire almost all day I wanted to get my uninformed gut thoughts and a vote while I could. Having not read the thread almost all week, I was unaware that Mr Bubbles was both outed as the seer and was dead. The three I named were the three I had some suspicion of from probably a week or so before.

Good thing I didn't vote for him - voting for a dead, proven seer would've been an all new level of WW fail.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:41 pm

El Guapo wrote:Good thing I didn't vote for him - voting for a dead, proven seer would've been an all new level of WW fail.

Yes. Yes it would've. I'm not even sure we would name that play - what is the point in naming something that would never, ever be repeated.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:41 pm

triggercut wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
I mean, you gave that answer before, but didn't speculate as I was hoping on possible wolf partners, which is what I was looking for. That's fair enough if you don't want to, though. I have some time now think about that and hopefully go back through the thread some more.

By the way, since it is evidently ok to disclose cards you had but didn't play, I had "extra vote" yesterday, and didn't use it. There didn't seem to be a good use for it as it played out (no point in surprising the village with it, even if I were to use it on Newcastle). The main possible use for it would've been to break a deadlocked vote to avoid a missed "Deadlines" lynch, but that didn't happen so no need.
Did you think that perhaps playing it and announcing as such would,

1. tell everyone what was up, so there'd be no surprise, and
2. burn the card so it wouldn't fall into the hands of the wolves?

Hmm....it has 3 uses. Still, burning a use wouldn't have been a bad thing, especially since we don't know that it hadn't been used before.

I thought about that. But doing it that way takes away its most important potential use on day 2 - avoiding a deadlines deadlock that results in no lynch. A conditional vote PM doesn't really help either, as I didn't think I could do that without knowing who the two potential deadlocked people might be. And anyways, I don't think burning a use is as important for that card, given that it's 3 uses and there's a max of what, 5 or 6 days in this game?

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:53 pm

I'm trying to eat my sammich, dangit!

I will say this in agreement with El Guapo: if we hang Remus and he comes back Village, then theohall and bb2112 have to be part of the Day 4 discussions. In fact, it could have been that they expected to be found out eventually (reading from stessier's "great place to hide/terrible place to hide"...I read that as "great place to hide until the house of cards comes down, and then we get a two-fer if they're wolves.") and Newcastle was their ace in the hole to go undetected...and then he got detected starting with redrun's Swipe play. The unexpected always trips up stuff like that...if it happened, it would be like a rerun of the JLA game.

Please note: that's a totally hypothetical scenario that deserves a second look only if Remus hangs, and then only if Remus comes up villager.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:05 pm

So what are the odds that Remus is a wolf three games in a row?

I guess they might be good, but not that good..

And I also guess that I really don't want Remus to be the last wolf, if he is a wolf.

So I am willing to put my vote on him, but want to make sure everyone, and Remus has a chance to use a card/speak up prior to putting the last vote on him.

So I will put my vote on Remus, after he get's his last words in, and give everyone a chance to play any cards they want to..

I have meetings and work until 9ish PM EST, so I will put my vote on Remus after that time, unless someone gives me a good reason not to.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:06 pm

RMC wrote:So what are the odds that Remus is a wolf three games in a row?

I guess they might be good, but not that good..

Same odds of being assigned a wolf role as anyone else this game.

Kraegor · Post by **Kraegor** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:16 pm

El Guapo wrote:
RMC wrote:So what are the odds that Remus is a wolf three games in a row?

I guess they might be good, but not that good..
Same odds of being assigned a wolf role as anyone else this game.

That's rather disingenous. Flipping heads is 50%. Flipping heads 3 times in a row is not.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:17 pm

Kraegor wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
RMC wrote:So what are the odds that Remus is a wolf three games in a row?

I guess they might be good, but not that good..
Same odds of being assigned a wolf role as anyone else this game.
That's rather disingenous. Flipping heads is 50%. Flipping heads 3 times in a row is not.

Yes, but if you flip a coin three times, flipping heads on the third flip is 50% regardless of what the results of the first two flips were.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:19 pm

Kraegor wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
RMC wrote:So what are the odds that Remus is a wolf three games in a row?

I guess they might be good, but not that good..
Same odds of being assigned a wolf role as anyone else this game.
That's rather disingenous. Flipping heads is 50%. Flipping heads 3 times in a row is not.

But his odds this game don't care that it would be the third head flip in a row. So he's got the same 3/13 chance we all have. It would only be of historical note if he ends up being a wolf that the coin landed heads all three times.

Kraegor · Post by **Kraegor** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:29 pm

triggercut wrote:I'm trying to eat my sammich, dangit!

I will say this in agreement with El Guapo: if we hang Remus and he comes back Village, then theohall and bb2112 have to be part of the Day 4 discussions. In fact, it could have been that they expected to be found out eventually (reading from stessier's "great place to hide/terrible place to hide"...I read that as "great place to hide until the house of cards comes down, and then we get a two-fer if they're wolves.") and Newcastle was their ace in the hole to go undetected...and then he got detected starting with redrun's Swipe play. The unexpected always trips up stuff like that...if it happened, it would be like a rerun of the JLA game.

Please note: that's a totally hypothetical scenario that deserves a second look only if Remus hangs, and then only if Remus comes up villager.

There is no direct link between theo and bb2112 from my perspective. A wolf clearing a villager is plausible. A wolf absolutely making every effort to prevent same villager from being proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, also plausible. In order to be dark one must have shade. theo fingered bb2112. I do not believe bb2112 asked for it.

If you find my theorum implausible, then I would set them both aside and focus on what remains.

The idea that both are wolves or that bb2112 is the only wolf seems unlikely to me.

Presume theo is a villager, How probable is it for bb2112 to get spartacus 2 days in a row? well I spose he could have been lying about getting it on day 2. So 2 of the 3 wolves got spartacus on consecutive days? I'd have to suspect the mod is in on it and we lynch lassr tomorrow.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:32 pm

stessier wrote:
Kraegor wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
RMC wrote:So what are the odds that Remus is a wolf three games in a row?

I guess they might be good, but not that good..
Same odds of being assigned a wolf role as anyone else this game.
That's rather disingenous. Flipping heads is 50%. Flipping heads 3 times in a row is not.
But his odds this game don't care that it would be the third head flip in a row. So he's got the same 3/13 chance we all have. It would only be of historical note if he ends up being a wolf that the coin landed heads all three times.

Yeah, I took stats as well. So I know that odds are the same as each of us for this game. But to be a wolf three times in a row, the probability of that occurring is less with each wolf designation in each game in a row that he is a wolf.

It is rather a moot point, as I pushed for his head on day one, and will vote him off tonight if no one comes up with a viable reason not to.

Kraegor · Post by **Kraegor** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:35 pm

stessier wrote:
Kraegor wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
RMC wrote:So what are the odds that Remus is a wolf three games in a row?

I guess they might be good, but not that good..
Same odds of being assigned a wolf role as anyone else this game.
That's rather disingenous. Flipping heads is 50%. Flipping heads 3 times in a row is not.
But his odds this game don't care that it would be the third head flip in a row. So he's got the same 3/13 chance we all have. It would only be of historical note if he ends up being a wolf that the coin landed heads all three times.

Some mighty fine flawed analysis.

Google probability. 3 Independent flips All ending up heads = 1/2 X 1/2 X 1/2 = 0.125

Kraegor · Post by **Kraegor** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:41 pm

Although now that I think on it in deference to sematic nitwits of the world, yes the odds are the same.

It would seem there is a probable likelihood that I just fed some trolls