Story of the Chaos Order of the Dark Mages(WW)-Game Over

[stessier]

Presume theo is a villager, How probable is it for bb2112 to get spartacus 2 days in a row? well I spose he could have been lying about getting it on day 2. So 2 of the 3 wolves got spartacus on consecutive days? I'd have to suspect the mod is in on it and we lynch lassr tomorrow.

I thought this was a joke. I also thought it said Day 1.

[Kraegor]

Good god now the spelling nazis will strike! Run for yer lives!!!

[El Guapo]

So what are the odds that Remus is a wolf three games in a row?

I guess they might be good, but not that good..

Same odds of being assigned a wolf role as anyone else this game.

That's rather disingenous. Flipping heads is 50%. Flipping heads 3 times in a row is not.

But his odds this game don't care that it would be the third head flip in a row. So he's got the same 3/13 chance we all have. It would only be of historical note if he ends up being a wolf that the coin landed heads all three times.

Yeah, I took stats as well. So I know that odds are the same as each of us for this game. But to be a wolf three times in a row, the probability of that occurring is less with each wolf designation in each game in a row that he is a wolf.

It is rather a moot point, as I pushed for his head on day one, and will vote him off tonight if no one comes up with a viable reason not to.

No, the odds of him being a wolf in any game are exactly the same regardless of whether or not he was a wolf in the previous game or the previous 100 games. Assuming, for the moment, that the mod at issue isn't loading the dice to avoid such an outcome, but I don't think there's any evidence that Lassr would do that.

So yes, starting from any three game interval, the odds of wolf-wolf-wolf are low. The odds of any one roll coming up wolf are exactly the same regardless of the other outcomes, however.

Not that this really matters at this point.

[El Guapo]

So what are the odds that Remus is a wolf three games in a row?

I guess they might be good, but not that good..

Same odds of being assigned a wolf role as anyone else this game.

That's rather disingenous. Flipping heads is 50%. Flipping heads 3 times in a row is not.

But his odds this game don't care that it would be the third head flip in a row. So he's got the same 3/13 chance we all have. It would only be of historical note if he ends up being a wolf that the coin landed heads all three times.

Some mighty fine flawed analysis.

Google probability. 3 Independent flips All ending up heads = 1/2 X 1/2 X 1/2 = 0.125

Yes, I agree that the odds of any one flip coming up heads is the same for each flip.

[Kraegor]

So yes, starting from any three game interval, the odds of wolf-wolf-wolf are low. The odds of any one roll coming up wolf are exactly the same regardless of the other outcomes, however.

Not that this really matters at this point.

You do realize the core of this is that you and stessier took odds literally when probably would have sufficed?

[El Guapo]

So yes, starting from any three game interval, the odds of wolf-wolf-wolf are low. The odds of any one roll coming up wolf are exactly the same regardless of the other outcomes, however.

Not that this really matters at this point.

You do realize the core of this is that you and stessier took odds literally when probably would have sufficed?

I'm confused by what it means to take odds literally. As opposed to metaphorically?

[Lassr]

Assuming, for the moment, that the mod at issue isn't loading the dice to avoid such an outcome, but I don't think there's any evidence that Lassr would do that.

random.org did all the assignments for this game. Mod just wrote the numbers down next to the player list.

[Kraegor]

I'm confused by what it means to take odds literally. As opposed to metaphorically?

Sheldon: More wrong? Wrong is an absolute state and not subject to gradation
Stuart: Of course it is! It's a little wrong to say a tomato is a vegetable. It's very wrong to say it's a suspension bridge

edit: remove de,

[RMC]

I'm confused by what it means to take odds literally. As opposed to metaphorically?

Sheldon: More wrong? Wrong is an absolute state and not subject to gradation
Stuart: Of course it is! It's a little wrong to say a tomato is a vegetable. It's very wrong to say it's a suspension bridge

edit: remove de,

Love that show.

[stessier]

So what are the odds that Remus is a wolf three games in a row?

I guess they might be good, but not that good..

And I also guess that I really don't want Remus to be the last wolf, if he is a wolf.

So I am willing to put my vote on him, but want to make sure everyone, and Remus has a chance to use a card/speak up prior to putting the last vote on him.

So I will put my vote on Remus, after he get's his last words in, and give everyone a chance to play any cards they want to..

I have meetings and work until 9ish PM EST, so I will put my vote on Remus after that time, unless someone gives me a good reason not to.

I don't think you should vote for Remus tonight. I think a bit more discussion is warranted.

[RMC]

So what are the odds that Remus is a wolf three games in a row?

I guess they might be good, but not that good..

And I also guess that I really don't want Remus to be the last wolf, if he is a wolf.

So I am willing to put my vote on him, but want to make sure everyone, and Remus has a chance to use a card/speak up prior to putting the last vote on him.

So I will put my vote on Remus, after he get's his last words in, and give everyone a chance to play any cards they want to..

I have meetings and work until 9ish PM EST, so I will put my vote on Remus after that time, unless someone gives me a good reason not to.

I don't think you should vote for Remus tonight. I think a bit more discussion is warranted.

Okay... Anyone else want to chime in? I have been called wolfy because of my non-voting record. I just want to point out, that I am not going to vote tonight because I was asked to hold off.

I really would like to hear if Remus has some suspects, so that is my other reason to not vote right now, let him have his say and accuse some people, so if he is lynched and comes back villager, we at least have some info. If he comes back wolf, we have even more info.

[bb2112]

[RMC]

Great commentary..

[bb2112]

Great commentary..

Thanks!

[theohall]

This is too reminiscent of Remus West playing us by barely paying attention - yet again. It screams of someone who does not have to worry about who the remaining wolves are.

[RMC]

This is too reminiscent of Remus West playing us by barely paying attention - yet again. It screams of someone who does not have to worry about who the remaining wolves are.

No harm in waiting for him to speak up prior to lynching him. If he doesn't respond we lynch him anyway.. If he responds we get more information, and help us out in the future..

[theohall]

This is too reminiscent of Remus West playing us by barely paying attention - yet again. It screams of someone who does not have to worry about who the remaining wolves are.

No harm in waiting for him to speak up prior to lynching him. If he doesn't respond we lynch him anyway.. If he responds we get more information, and help us out in the future..

Let's see. Remus West was at N-1. His reply - try to convince Kraegor not to vote for him - not RMC or anyone else. He spoke at N-1 already. Doubt he says much more other than trying to point the finger at me, bb2112, or triggercut.

[Remus West]

So....famous last words time I suppose. I think we'll go with "I told ya so" while lacking the card to make it worth while.

So, suspects.....all of you. Some more so than others.

triggercut's vote on me feels mighty middle of the road. Seems like a wolf that wants to be in the middle of the pack. His vote sort of beefs up the train to keep it going and thus get me hung while allowing him to not stick out as the driver. Don't like that.

theohall's vote seems to bank on the idea that he can get away with drumming after normals and escape blame because "that's normal theo". Don't like that.

bb2112's vote seems to bank on his having been "scanned" and offering to play the told ya so card. I figure he'll fall back on those two things when I'm lynched as a method to drive any votes away from himself. Don't like that.

There, now that theohall's ego has been assuaged I'll get on to the real deal.

RMC's being very careful with his vote and being very certain we know he is being careful with it. He may as well post "Look guys, I'm not going to do the same thing Remus did to Chaosraven. Look how much I help the village." That makes me wonder.

stessier was almost silent for much of the beginning of the game and now has started posting all sort of voting lists. Seem a common evil tactic to do in order to show how helpful you are. That makes me wonder.

Both of these players have basically said they don't want me to live to the end due to the risk of losing to me again. Gee, thanks for playing this game guys, not that I did not fully expect that thought process from people. Still, its a crappy reason to vote for me, imo.

Krageor has played exactly as Kraegor used to play. Slightly irascible and provocative but all in all repeatedly pointing out things that seem to be helping.

El Guapo gains a ton of credit from being Newcastle's seeming effort towards gaining a "fall guy".

As for me.

People bring up Newcastle not voting for me. What can I say to that but "well done Newcastle" you seem to have pulled off what I thought redrun was doing. Anyone who has been evil with me knows I'm all about throwing each other under the bus to gain cover credit. At best if Newcastle and I were partners then he'd have been acting against my wishes there. Do not even try to pretend otherwise when pushing that little argument, it just makes you look sillier.

Folks mention the vote against Chaosraven. Yes, I should have allowed El Guapo to play the deadlines card before voting. That aside, look at that vote. A vote pushed hard by theohall - as is this one which will yield similar results. A vote he pushed hard for me to join. Compare it to today's vote.

If theohall were a villager then shouldn't he be questioning why I haven't been pushed over the edge yet? More specifically, shouldn't he be looking at others to figure out why they don't want to vote me. You'd need to consider both scenarios of my being a wolf and my being normal. He doesn't even try to consider them but simply push for that final vote on me. He shows no doubt because he doesn't have any.

 theohall 
 


I have more but I just heard the nephews upstairs and I'm going to go play before they head off for school.

[RMC]

This is too reminiscent of Remus West playing us by barely paying attention - yet again. It screams of someone who does not have to worry about who the remaining wolves are.

No harm in waiting for him to speak up prior to lynching him. If he doesn't respond we lynch him anyway.. If he responds we get more information, and help us out in the future..

Let's see. Remus West was at N-1. His reply - try to convince Kraegor not to vote for him - not RMC or anyone else. He spoke at N-1 already. Doubt he says much more other than trying to point the finger at me, bb2112, or triggercut.

He pointed it at you, and questioned everyone else. Other than giving El Guapo a pass, as he said Newcastle tried to make him a fall guy..A tactic he explained was how he liked to play when a wolf.

I can not say that I feel he is a wolf. I feel better with Theo, or even El Guapo.

But I know I am not going to get traction on the El Guapo.

So as much as it pains me, I am following Remus's lead and voting for Theo.

 Theohall 
 


I just don't think Remus got lucky/unlucky three games in a row and is a wolf.

[Lassr]

Day 3
BB2112 ---------- Remus West --------
theohall ---------- kraegor -------- Remus West
kraegor ---------- --------
Remus West ---------- theohall --------
El Guapo ---------- --------
stessier ---------- Remus West --------
triggercut ---------- Remus West --------
RMC ---------- theohall --------
.
.
Remus West -3 ---------- bb2112, triggercut, theohall
theohall -2 ---------- Remus West, RMC
----------
--------
---------
----------
----------
----------

Majority = 5

[theohall]

So....famous last words time I suppose. I think we'll go with "I told ya so" while lacking the card to make it worth while.

So, suspects.....all of you. Some more so than others.

triggercut's vote on me feels mighty middle of the road. Seems like a wolf that wants to be in the middle of the pack. His vote sort of beefs up the train to keep it going and thus get me hung while allowing him to not stick out as the driver. Don't like that.

theohall's vote seems to bank on the idea that he can get away with drumming after normals and escape blame because "that's normal theo". Don't like that.

bb2112's vote seems to bank on his having been "scanned" and offering to play the told ya so card. I figure he'll fall back on those two things when I'm lynched as a method to drive any votes away from himself. Don't like that.

There, now that theohall's ego has been assuaged I'll get on to the real deal.

RMC's being very careful with his vote and being very certain we know he is being careful with it. He may as well post "Look guys, I'm not going to do the same thing Remus did to Chaosraven. Look how much I help the village." That makes me wonder.

stessier was almost silent for much of the beginning of the game and now has started posting all sort of voting lists. Seem a common evil tactic to do in order to show how helpful you are. That makes me wonder.

Both of these players have basically said they don't want me to live to the end due to the risk of losing to me again. Gee, thanks for playing this game guys, not that I did not fully expect that thought process from people. Still, its a crappy reason to vote for me, imo.

Krageor has played exactly as Kraegor used to play. Slightly irascible and provocative but all in all repeatedly pointing out things that seem to be helping.

El Guapo gains a ton of credit from being Newcastle's seeming effort towards gaining a "fall guy".

As for me.

People bring up Newcastle not voting for me. What can I say to that but "well done Newcastle" you seem to have pulled off what I thought redrun was doing. Anyone who has been evil with me knows I'm all about throwing each other under the bus to gain cover credit. At best if Newcastle and I were partners then he'd have been acting against my wishes there. Do not even try to pretend otherwise when pushing that little argument, it just makes you look sillier.

Folks mention the vote against Chaosraven. Yes, I should have allowed El Guapo to play the deadlines card before voting. That aside, look at that vote. A vote pushed hard by theohall - as is this one which will yield similar results. A vote he pushed hard for me to join. Compare it to today's vote.

If theohall were a villager then shouldn't he be questioning why I haven't been pushed over the edge yet? More specifically, shouldn't he be looking at others to figure out why they don't want to vote me. You'd need to consider both scenarios of my being a wolf and my being normal. He doesn't even try to consider them but simply push for that final vote on me. He shows no doubt because he doesn't have any.

 theohall 
 


I have more but I just heard the nephews upstairs and I'm going to go play before they head off for school.

I did question why Remus West was not pushed over the edge yet, but it appears he is ignoring it was even said. When he was at N-1, I was mentioning potential partners and even included the possibility a wolf was already among the N-1 voters. Remus West is not going to push himself over the edge. Say all of the villagers had actually already voted for Remus West. That would leave wolves among the following 4 - Remus West, RMC, Kraegor, and El Guapo.

So let's do this again. No, I did not mention El Guapo as a potential wolf last time, because I believe him to be innocent based on Day One and Day Two play.

1) RMC is likely Remus West's partner. See #3.
2) Kraegor is likely a villager.
3) El Guapo is likely a villager. Refer to the Deadline card not getting played thanks to Remus West and RMC and Newcastle immediately blaming El Guapo for when the Deadline card was played the next day while not mentioning Remus West did not give El Guapo the chance to waste 1 of the uses.
4) Remus West. Once again trying to deflect everything away from himself while barely posting and hardly voting at all. This is the 3rd game in which he has demonstrated this pattern. He has been evil in all three games. A Good Remus West actually posts more and provides considerably more analysis than one or two posts per day. The Evil Remus West knows he does not have to provide said analysis and just skates through the game whilst trying to deflect attetion.
5) If there are two wolves in this group, it explains perfectly why Remus West has not been lynched, yet. Two of the 4 outstanding votes are wolves. This potential fact seems to elude Remus West in his little reply.

A lynch of me will show villager and then you all had better kill Remus West and RMC.

[bb2112]

The slowest train ever.

[Kraegor]

We could lynch theo and elg for being lazy asses with their quote tags. Is it really neccessary to spam a thread with a chained reply to a comment from the same fricking page? Really really?

[Kraegor]

The slowest train ever.

Not really. The three of you have been walking in lockstep for a few days now. Taking a vote for granted without actually explaining it is going to be met with some resistance. This is not a Mean Girls village.

So far all that has been presented on Remus is a Not Again! campaign. I don't feel the same sense of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KqqRPvM_Sw" target="_blank that you Heathers seem to be feeling.

The deadlines thing. That helped the village out. Newcastle got backed into a small corner he didnt have the time or spin his way out of.

I'm still pondering.

[RMC]

Well I am very comfortable with my vote on Theo. If you want to prove that you need to lynch Theo, go ahead and lynch me.

I will come back a villager.

And for the record I never blamed El Guapo for the deadline card, it was all Remus on that one. I pointed out Remus not playing it.

[Kraegor]

that's a NSFW link to a cartman rant btw/

[Kraegor]

Well I am very comfortable with my vote on Theo. If you want to prove that you need to lynch Theo, go ahead and lynch me.

I will come back a villager.

You dead as a wolf doesn't prove theo. You dead as a villager doesn't prove theo. You dead will be much the same as any other day. Sorta quiet. Although yes, I do suspect you. There is no chain of evidence that leads from you to theo so... wtf?

[Kraegor]

the time or spin his way out of.

<trebek>
Oh sorry no. The question we were looking for was "time or room". time. or room.

Next answer...

[bb2112]

The slowest train ever.

Not really. The three of you have been walking in lockstep for a few days now. Taking a vote for granted without actually explaining it is going to be met with some resistance. This is not a Mean Girls village.

Actually I have explained myself to the point where I'm ready to vomit. If you don't get why I'm voting the way I'm voting by now, then you will never get it. So I figured I would let you guys hash it out for a while. It looks like it is going swimmingly, btw.

[RMC]

Well I am very comfortable with my vote on Theo. If you want to prove that you need to lynch Theo, go ahead and lynch me.

I will come back a villager.

You dead as a wolf doesn't prove theo. You dead as a villager doesn't prove theo. You dead will be much the same as any other day. Sorta quiet. Although yes, I do suspect you. There is no chain of evidence that leads from you to theo so... wtf?

He keeps making comments that are not true. I never accused El Guapo of anything related to the deadlines card. I blamed Remus. I am not working for Remus, I pushed for his lynch on day one.

I have taken a different position and that is why Theo wants to lynch me. I guess if he says lynching him proves that myself and Remus are wolves, then the opposite should be true as well, right?

[bb2112]

The slowest train ever.

Not really. The three of you have been walking in lockstep for a few days now.

Just for grins, who are the three of us that are in lockstep?

[Kraegor]

Is the vote and reasoning for killing Remus not apparent to you?

[Kraegor]

I have taken a different position and that is why Theo wants to lynch me. I guess if he says lynching him proves that myself and Remus are wolves, then the opposite should be true as well, right?

Your premise is not the opposite. You are pointing at each other and then at someone else.

Both are not true, so "as well" does not apply.

[theohall]

Well I am very comfortable with my vote on Theo. If you want to prove that you need to lynch Theo, go ahead and lynch me.

I will come back a villager.

And for the record I never blamed El Guapo for the deadline card, it was all Remus on that one. I pointed out Remus not playing it.

It was "all Remus" on that one? So why were YOU voting for El Guapo along with Newcastle on Day Two?? What are you pointing to Remus West "not playing" if it was about El Guapo not playing a card???

This post makes no sense.

It's either RW or RMC ... since the wolf and villagers seem to not to want to vote for Remus West for the 3rd game in a row when RW has been evil....

 RMC 
 

[Lassr]

Day 3
BB2112 ---------- Remus West --------
theohall ---------- kraegor -------- Remus West
kraegor ---------- --------
Remus West ---------- theohall --------
El Guapo ---------- --------
stessier ---------- Remus West --------
triggercut ---------- Remus West --------
RMC ---------- theohall --------
.
.
Remus West -2 ---------- bb2112, triggercut
theohall -2 ---------- Remus West, RMC
RMC -1 ---------- theohall
--------
---------
----------
----------
----------

Majority = 5

[bb2112]

Seriously, what the hell is going on? There are only 2 wolves left, right? Why is it so difficult to lynch RW? With as hard as it has been, I would think there are 5 wolves.

If it will move the game along, I will post again tonight all the reasons why I think RW should go.

[El Guapo]

 Remus West 
 


(Finally) doing a re-read this morning. I'll be back with more thoughts soon.

[Kraegor]

Seriously, what the hell is going on? There are only 2 wolves left, right? Why is it so difficult to lynch RW? With as hard as it has been, I would think there are 5 wolves.

stessier and el guapo went radio silent. Just giving them a chance to respond.

[stessier]

Sorry, no one chimed in on Wednesday and there was/is a crisis at work today. I'll try to post some more thoughts in a bit.

[triggercut]

I won't be voting for theohall this turn, I don't think, barring something extraordinary. I could be persuaded to RMC, but for right now I'm unconvinced to move my vote.