Story of the Chaos Order of the Dark Mages(WW)-Game Over

[triggercut]

For now I'm keeping my vote where it is on RMC. I appreciate bb2112's evidence and it is something to think on.

As for Kraegor, he continues to give me the willies, but I'm not voting for him yet. He's been very good at throwing suspicion around without doing a whole lot of voting in support of his suspicions...except today he has, which is kind of throwing me.

[Lassr]

Day 4
BB2112 ----- -----
theohall ----- kraegor -----
kraegor ----- theohall -----
stessier ----- RMC ----- kraegor
triggercut ----- theohall ----- RMC
RMC ----- stessier -----
.
RMC -1 ----- triggercut
stessier -1 ----- RMC
kraegor -2 ----- theohall, stessier
theohall -1 ----- kraegor





Majority = 4

[RMC]

So BB, where are you putting your vote? You are the semi-proven, you might as well suggest and vote on who you think is the wolf.

[bb2112]

Day 1 - Final Vote Count

I think I did this right. It was extensive, so let me know if you find any errors.

Spoiler:

• Chaos acc bb2112 (1)
  theo acc stessier (1) *accused everyone "silent"
  El Guapo acc Remus (1)
  Newcastle acc kraegor (1)
  Remus acc bb2112 (2)
  theo wd stessier (0)
  theo acc Chaos (1)
  redrun acc Qantaga (1)
  RMC acc Remus (3)
  Newcastle wd kraegor (0)
  Newcastle acc Qantaga (2)
  trig acc El Guapo (1)
  redrun wd Qantaga (1)
  Newcastle wd Qantaga (0)
  Newcastle acc redrun (1)
  trig wd El Guapo (0)
  trig acc Remus (4)
  Qantaga acc theohall (1)
  kraegor acc Remus (5)
  bb2112 wd Remus (4)
  Chaos wd bb2112 (1)
  redrun acc Chaos (2)
  Newcastle wd redrun (0)
  Newcastle acc Chaos (3)
  stessier acc Bubbles (1)
  Qantaga wd theo (0)
  Qantaga acc stessier (1)
  Newcastle wd Chaos (2)
  Newcastle acc Newcastle (1)
  Qantaga wd stessier (0)
• Qantaga acc Newcastle (2)
  Newcastle wd Newcastle (1)
  El Guapo wd Remus (3)
  El Guapo acc kraegor (1)
  theo wd Chaos (1)
  theo acc RMC (1)
  bb2112 acc Remus (4)
  El Guapo wd kraegor (0)
  El Guapo acc RMC (2)
  Newcastle acc stessier (1)
  stessier wd Bubbles (0)
  stessier acc RMC (3)
  trig wd Remus (3)
  trig acc RMC (4)
  Newcastle wd stessier (0)
  Newcastle acc Chaos (2)
  theo wd RMC (3)
  theo acc Chaos (3)
  Remus wd bb2112 (0)
  kraegor wd Remus (2)
• kraegor acc Chaos (4)
  bb2112 wd Remus (1)
  bb2112 acc Newcastle (2)
  redrun wd Chaos (3)
  redrun acc Newcastle (3)
  Bubbles acc Chaos (4)
  Remus acc redrun (1)
  Chaos acc redrun (2)
  theo wd Chaos (3)
  theo acc redrun (3)
  redrun wd Newacasatle (2)
  redrun acc Chaos (4)
  stessier wd RMC (2)
  stessier acc redrun (4)
  RMC wd Remus (0)
  theo wd redrun (3)
  theo acc Chaos (5)
  bb2112 wd Newcastle (1)
  bb2112 acc Bubbles (1)
  Newcastle wd Chaos (4)
  Newcastle acc stessier (1)
  El Guapo wd RMC (1)
• El Guapo acc Bubbles (2)
  RMC acc bubbles (3)
  theo wd Chaos (3)
  theo acc stessier (2)
  stessier wd redrun (2)
  stessier acc Bubbles (4)
  Bubbles wd Chaos (2)
  Bubbles acc stessier (3)
  trig wd RMC (0)
  trig acc Bubbles (5)
  Chaos acc Bubbles (6)
  trig wd Bubbles (5)
  stessier wd Bubbles (4)
  bb2112 wd Bubbles (3)
  Chaos wd Bubbles (2)
• bb2112 acc Remus (1)
  Chaos acc stessier (4)
  redrun wd Chaos (1)
  theo wd stessier (3)
  theo acc RMC (1)
• trig acc Chaos (2)
  RMC wd Bubbles (1)
  theo wd RMC (0)
• theo acc CHaos (3)
  stessier acc RMC (1)
  Chaos wd stessier (2)
• RMC acc Remus (2)
  Bubbles wd stessier (1)
• Bubbles acc Chaos (4)
• redrun acc stessier (2)
  Newcastle wd stessier (1)
• Newcastle acc Chaos (5)
  stessier wd RMC (0)
• stessier acc Chaos (6)
  Remus wd redrun (0)
• Remus acc Chaos (7)

Against Chaos (7) - kraegor, trig, theo, Bubbles, Newcastle, stessier, Remus
Against Remus (2) - bb2112, RMC
Against stessier (1) - redrun
Against Bubbles (1) - El Guapo
Against Newcastle (1) - Qantaga

No Vote - Chaos

More to come...

This is interesting.

[bb2112]

.but with 3 wolves out there and only 3 votes on our leading vote-getter, the chances are very good that one or two could swoop in and force a hung jury and we go to nighttime without hanging ANYONE.

quoted for lulz....swooping in wolves in early game...in formation, swooping in to force a hung jury....dumb play by the wolves...if they do that...seriously i hope they do...

Pg21 12:49am

[bb2112]

Day 2
Newcastle ---------- Qantaga -------- El Guapo --------
BB2112 ---------- Newcastle -------- Newcastle --------
theohall ---------- Remus West -------- Newcastle -------- kraegor
kraegor ---------- -------- --------
Remus West ---------- -------- --------
El Guapo ---------- Newcastle -------- --------
stessier ---------- -------- --------
triggercut ---------- Remus West -------- Newcastle --------
RMC ---------- El Guapo -------- --------
redrun ---------- Newcastle -------- --------
.
.
Newcastle -3 ---------- El Guapo, triggercut. Bb2112
El Guapo -2 ---------- RMC, Newcastle
kraegor -1 ---------- theohall
--------
---------
----------
----------
----------

Majority = 6

Pg21 1:21am

[bb2112]

 Newcastle 
 


I'm not going to be awake before the deadline this morning and this is the only thing that makes sense to me for our lynch. Cancel a vote or add a vote won't change things now unless someone jumps on El Guapo. Or pulls off Newcastle.

Pg21 2:46am

[bb2112]

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.

Seriously theo?

Indeed! Why the heck is Newcastle still alive? I don't care about any of his apologies - he should be dead.

 Newcastle 
 

Pg21 6:46am

[bb2112]

Day 2
Newcastle ---------- Qantaga -------- El Guapo --------
BB2112 ---------- Newcastle -------- Newcastle --------
theohall ---------- Remus West -------- Newcastle -------- kraegor
kraegor ---------- -------- --------
Remus West ---------- Newcastle -------- --------
El Guapo ---------- Newcastle -------- --------
stessier ---------- Newcastle -------- --------
triggercut ---------- Remus West -------- Newcastle --------
RMC ---------- El Guapo -------- --------
redrun ---------- Newcastle -------- Newcastle --------
.
.
Newcastle -6 ---------- El Guapo, triggercut. Bb2112, Remus West, stessier, redrun
El Guapo -2 ---------- RMC, Newcastle
kraegor -1 ---------- theohall
--------
---------
----------
----------
----------

Majority = 6 Votine Closed

Pg22 9:39 am

[bb2112]

Day 3
BB2112 ---------- Remus West -------- --------
theohall ---------- kraegor -------- Remus West -------- RMC -------- Remus West
kraegor ---------- Remus West -------- --------
Remus West ---------- theohall -------- --------
El Guapo ---------- Remus West -------- --------
stessier ---------- Remus West -------- --------
triggercut ---------- Remus West -------- --------
RMC ---------- theohall -------- --------
.
.
Remus West -5 ---------- bb2112, triggercut, El Guapo, kraegor, theohall
theohall -2 ---------- Remus West, RMC
----------
--------
---------
----------
----------
----------

Majority = 5 Voting Closed

[stessier]

Day 1 - Final Vote Count

I think I did this right. It was extensive, so let me know if you find any errors.

Spoiler:

• Chaos acc bb2112 (1)
  theo acc stessier (1) *accused everyone "silent"
  El Guapo acc Remus (1)
  Newcastle acc kraegor (1)
  Remus acc bb2112 (2)
  theo wd stessier (0)
  theo acc Chaos (1)
  redrun acc Qantaga (1)
  RMC acc Remus (3)
  Newcastle wd kraegor (0)
  Newcastle acc Qantaga (2)
  trig acc El Guapo (1)
  redrun wd Qantaga (1)
  Newcastle wd Qantaga (0)
  Newcastle acc redrun (1)
  trig wd El Guapo (0)
  trig acc Remus (4)
  Qantaga acc theohall (1)
  kraegor acc Remus (5)
  bb2112 wd Remus (4)
  Chaos wd bb2112 (1)
  redrun acc Chaos (2)
  Newcastle wd redrun (0)
  Newcastle acc Chaos (3)
  stessier acc Bubbles (1)
  Qantaga wd theo (0)
  Qantaga acc stessier (1)
  Newcastle wd Chaos (2)
  Newcastle acc Newcastle (1)
  Qantaga wd stessier (0)
• Qantaga acc Newcastle (2)
  Newcastle wd Newcastle (1)
  El Guapo wd Remus (3)
  El Guapo acc kraegor (1)
  theo wd Chaos (1)
  theo acc RMC (1)
  bb2112 acc Remus (4)
  El Guapo wd kraegor (0)
  El Guapo acc RMC (2)
  Newcastle acc stessier (1)
  stessier wd Bubbles (0)
  stessier acc RMC (3)
  trig wd Remus (3)
  trig acc RMC (4)
  Newcastle wd stessier (0)
  Newcastle acc Chaos (2)
  theo wd RMC (3)
  theo acc Chaos (3)
  Remus wd bb2112 (0)
  kraegor wd Remus (2)
• kraegor acc Chaos (4)
  bb2112 wd Remus (1)
  bb2112 acc Newcastle (2)
  redrun wd Chaos (3)
  redrun acc Newcastle (3)
  Bubbles acc Chaos (4)
  Remus acc redrun (1)
  Chaos acc redrun (2)
  theo wd Chaos (3)
  theo acc redrun (3)
  redrun wd Newacasatle (2)
  redrun acc Chaos (4)
  stessier wd RMC (2)
  stessier acc redrun (4)
  RMC wd Remus (0)
  theo wd redrun (3)
  theo acc Chaos (5)
  bb2112 wd Newcastle (1)
  bb2112 acc Bubbles (1)
  Newcastle wd Chaos (4)
  Newcastle acc stessier (1)
  El Guapo wd RMC (1)
• El Guapo acc Bubbles (2)
  RMC acc bubbles (3)
  theo wd Chaos (3)
  theo acc stessier (2)
  stessier wd redrun (2)
  stessier acc Bubbles (4)
  Bubbles wd Chaos (2)
  Bubbles acc stessier (3)
  trig wd RMC (0)
  trig acc Bubbles (5)
  Chaos acc Bubbles (6)
  trig wd Bubbles (5)
  stessier wd Bubbles (4)
  bb2112 wd Bubbles (3)
  Chaos wd Bubbles (2)
• bb2112 acc Remus (1)
  Chaos acc stessier (4)
  redrun wd Chaos (1)
  theo wd stessier (3)
  theo acc RMC (1)
• trig acc Chaos (2)
  RMC wd Bubbles (1)
  theo wd RMC (0)
• theo acc CHaos (3)
  stessier acc RMC (1)
  Chaos wd stessier (2)
• RMC acc Remus (2)
  Bubbles wd stessier (1)
• Bubbles acc Chaos (4)
• redrun acc stessier (2)
  Newcastle wd stessier (1)
• Newcastle acc Chaos (5)
  stessier wd RMC (0)
• stessier acc Chaos (6)
  Remus wd redrun (0)
• Remus acc Chaos (7)

Against Chaos (7) - kraegor, trig, theo, Bubbles, Newcastle, stessier, Remus
Against Remus (2) - bb2112, RMC
Against stessier (1) - redrun
Against Bubbles (1) - El Guapo
Against Newcastle (1) - Qantaga

No Vote - Chaos

More to come...

This is interesting.

So either all three wolves voted for Chaos - rare, but not unheard of, or else RMC is the wolf.

[RMC]

And since I am not the wolf..Did all three wolves vote 1,2,3.

That would not be my guess for the wolves to vote in that order..As it is just too..ballsy?

 Withdraw Stessier 
 

[bb2112]

I don't know guys. I am baffled. The last wolf is playing well. I have started 2 posts, one against Kraegor and one against Stess. Then after looking at the CR vote, it makes RMC look guilty, but then again he was pushing for RW all Day 1.

I feel pretty good about Trig. He has been solid all game. Theo is a mixed bag of good moves followed by bad. RMC has looked like he has been trying to help the village. Overall, I feel he is pretty good.

That only leaves Kraegor and Stess.

Kraegor who is acting like he has brain damage and will only go after one person all game, or Stess who really hasn't been a help all game long. He came real late to the NC party and then wasn't at the RW party at all.

I think I am just going to have to go with my gut.

 Stessier 
 

[bb2112]

And since I am not the wolf..Did all three wolves vote 1,2,3.

That would not be my guess for the wolves to vote in that order..As it is just too..ballsy?

 Withdraw Stessier 
 

I was thinking this too, but then you have to remember, the wolves didn't want El G to use the time card. This could have been a move to avoid that.

[bb2112]

For now I'm keeping my vote where it is on RMC. I appreciate bb2112's evidence and it is something to think on.

As for Kraegor, he continues to give me the willies, but I'm not voting for him yet. He's been very good at throwing suspicion around without doing a whole lot of voting in support of his suspicions...except today he has, which is kind of throwing me.

Today he has, but all game long he has been going after Theo with the only justification is to prove me. Terrible logic.

[theohall]

I could vote stessier for the same reasons bb2112 pointed out. My issue with stessier being the last wolf is his Day One interchange with Newcastle. The discussion about the rules seems like the kind of thing two wolves would discuss and ask the mod privately, so as not to raise suspicion. The public discussion looks very much like two people not discussing things privately at all. This is the main reason I believe it is Kraegor over stessier. And, yes, that is just as flimsy a reason I do not believe it is RMC, either. RMC actually seemed somewhat upset we did not focus on a Day One lynch of Remus West.

[Kraegor]

The discussion about the rules seems like the kind of thing two wolves would discuss and ask the mod privately, so as not to raise suspicion. The public discussion looks very much like two people not discussing things privately at all. .

Ironic. You draw the exact opposite conclusion I would from the same analysis.

Kraegor who is acting like he has brain damage and will only go after one person all game

What I've done is keep a concept alive. I've "gone after" theo today. I've annoyed him all game. There is a particular difference. You do understand he has spent the game going ballistic anytime someone questions his scan, right?
As for why, it's fairly simple. No reason to chase down newcastle or remus. That legwork was already accomplished. I saw no need to repeat it. I was trying to flush out number 3. Theo makes a useful lightning rod.

stessier has spent the game being Switzerland.

<accuse>stessier</accuse>

Today he has, but all game long he has been going after Theo with the only justification is to prove me. Terrible logic.

Actually your logic is bad. I don't need to prove you.

[Kraegor]

 stessier 
 

[theohall]

This is funny. bb2112's logic is bad so Kraegor follows his vote.

Kind of seals it for me as it looks like Kraegor is trying to be opportunistic with at least two more of us also questioning stessier, although one of us has not voted for him and the other has withdrawn his vote.

[stessier]

And since I am not the wolf..Did all three wolves vote 1,2,3.

That would not be my guess for the wolves to vote in that order..As it is just too..ballsy?

 Withdraw Stessier 
 

I was thinking this too, but then you have to remember, the wolves didn't want El G to use the time card. This could have been a move to avoid that.

There are 4 lights!!! Er, I mean the card had two uses!!! I doubt the wolves cared if one use was burned there or not.. But I am not a wolf, so I'm just guessing.

[Kraegor]

This is funny. bb2112's logic is bad so Kraegor follows his vote.

What? His logic is bad regarding my intentions. I did not say it was bad concerning stessier.

I did imply your logic was bad concerning stessier.

[bb2112]

Theohall - Kraegor, Stessier
Stessier - RMC, Theohall
Triggercut - RMC, Theohall
RMC - Stessier, Triggercut
Kraegor - Theohall
bb2112 - Kraegor, Stessier

Kraegor's unwillingness or inability to play in the reindeer games does not help my thoughts about him. I see wolfy behavior in a lot more than one person, why is he only focused on one? I know I was tunnel visioned on Remus for the first three days, but I was pretty certain. Is Kraegor that certain about Theo?

Now that we have this list, what do we think?

I am pretty convinced that either Kraegor or Stess is the last wolf. They both have a lot of wolfish tendencies this game. I have never played with Kraegor before and a lot of people keep saying things like, yep it is the same old Kraegor, except he is not as aggressive as he was. I don't know this from anything. What I do know is Stess is a very good detective and I don't think he has played up to his potential this game. This is the only reason why I think Stess over Kraegor.

And it doesn't help that neither one had each other on their threat matrix and now they are both voting for each other. If Kraegor really is the villager, he sure didn't help the village much.

[bb2112]

This is funny. bb2112's logic is bad so Kraegor follows his vote.

Kind of seals it for me as it looks like Kraegor is trying to be opportunistic with at least two more of us also questioning stessier, although one of us has not voted for him and the other has withdrawn his vote.

That's funny, because it seemed to me that Stess's vote on Kraegor also smacked of opportunism.

Trig, what do you think of this mess? I know you are suspicious of RMC, but after that?

[triggercut]

I'm sorry, there's something else going on this weekend besides Guild Wars 2?

Give me a bit to defib, and I do have some thoughts.

[Lassr]

Day 4
BB2112 ----- stessier -----
theohall ----- kraegor -----
kraegor ----- theohall ----- stessier
stessier ----- RMC ----- kraegor
triggercut ----- theohall ----- RMC
RMC ----- stessier -----
.
kraegor -2 ----- theohall, stessier
stessier -2 ----- bb2112, kraegor
RMC -1 ----- triggercut
-----





Majority = 4

[theohall]

This is funny. bb2112's logic is bad so Kraegor follows his vote.

What? His logic is bad regarding my intentions. I did not say it was bad concerning stessier.

I did imply your logic was bad concerning stessier.

[theohall]

This is funny. bb2112's logic is bad so Kraegor follows his vote.

What? His logic is bad regarding my intentions. I did not say it was bad concerning stessier.

I did imply your logic was bad concerning stessier.

Forgot to say - I am glad my logic was so bad you are still voting for stessier.

[theohall]

Having had time to think...

Why would a villager (Kraegor) be casting doubt upon someone else the entire game? The only players doing this should be wolves.

[stessier]

Okay, let's make a decision to get this game moving again.

[RMC]

Going with, I can't pick a wolf to save myself line of thought.

I will go with:  Kraegor 
 


Most of the arguments for him are persuasive. I think some of the voting patterns of Stessier give him enough doubt for me as well.

[triggercut]

Day 1 - Final Vote Count

I think I did this right. It was extensive, so let me know if you find any errors.

Spoiler:

• Chaos acc bb2112 (1)
  theo acc stessier (1) *accused everyone "silent"
  El Guapo acc Remus (1)
  Newcastle acc kraegor (1)
  Remus acc bb2112 (2)
  theo wd stessier (0)
  theo acc Chaos (1)
  redrun acc Qantaga (1)
  RMC acc Remus (3)
  Newcastle wd kraegor (0)
  Newcastle acc Qantaga (2)
  trig acc El Guapo (1)
  redrun wd Qantaga (1)
  Newcastle wd Qantaga (0)
  Newcastle acc redrun (1)
  trig wd El Guapo (0)
  trig acc Remus (4)
  Qantaga acc theohall (1)
  kraegor acc Remus (5)
  bb2112 wd Remus (4)
  Chaos wd bb2112 (1)
  redrun acc Chaos (2)
  Newcastle wd redrun (0)
  Newcastle acc Chaos (3)
  stessier acc Bubbles (1)
  Qantaga wd theo (0)
  Qantaga acc stessier (1)
  Newcastle wd Chaos (2)
  Newcastle acc Newcastle (1)
  Qantaga wd stessier (0)
• Qantaga acc Newcastle (2)
  Newcastle wd Newcastle (1)
  El Guapo wd Remus (3)
  El Guapo acc kraegor (1)
  theo wd Chaos (1)
  theo acc RMC (1)
  bb2112 acc Remus (4)
  El Guapo wd kraegor (0)
  El Guapo acc RMC (2)
  Newcastle acc stessier (1)
  stessier wd Bubbles (0)
  stessier acc RMC (3)
  trig wd Remus (3)
  trig acc RMC (4)
  Newcastle wd stessier (0)
  Newcastle acc Chaos (2)
  theo wd RMC (3)
  theo acc Chaos (3)
  Remus wd bb2112 (0)
  kraegor wd Remus (2)
• kraegor acc Chaos (4)
  bb2112 wd Remus (1)
  bb2112 acc Newcastle (2)
  redrun wd Chaos (3)
  redrun acc Newcastle (3)
  Bubbles acc Chaos (4)
  Remus acc redrun (1)
  Chaos acc redrun (2)
  theo wd Chaos (3)
  theo acc redrun (3)
  redrun wd Newacasatle (2)
  redrun acc Chaos (4)
  stessier wd RMC (2)
  stessier acc redrun (4)
  RMC wd Remus (0)
  theo wd redrun (3)
  theo acc Chaos (5)
  bb2112 wd Newcastle (1)
  bb2112 acc Bubbles (1)
  Newcastle wd Chaos (4)
  Newcastle acc stessier (1)
  El Guapo wd RMC (1)
• El Guapo acc Bubbles (2)
  RMC acc bubbles (3)
  theo wd Chaos (3)
  theo acc stessier (2)
  stessier wd redrun (2)
  stessier acc Bubbles (4)
  Bubbles wd Chaos (2)
  Bubbles acc stessier (3)
  trig wd RMC (0)
  trig acc Bubbles (5)
  Chaos acc Bubbles (6)
  trig wd Bubbles (5)
  stessier wd Bubbles (4)
  bb2112 wd Bubbles (3)
  Chaos wd Bubbles (2)
• bb2112 acc Remus (1)
  Chaos acc stessier (4)
  redrun wd Chaos (1)
  theo wd stessier (3)
  theo acc RMC (1)
• trig acc Chaos (2)
  RMC wd Bubbles (1)
  theo wd RMC (0)
• theo acc CHaos (3)
  stessier acc RMC (1)
  Chaos wd stessier (2)
• RMC acc Remus (2)
  Bubbles wd stessier (1)
• Bubbles acc Chaos (4)
• redrun acc stessier (2)
  Newcastle wd stessier (1)
• Newcastle acc Chaos (5)
  stessier wd RMC (0)
• stessier acc Chaos (6)
  Remus wd redrun (0)
• Remus acc Chaos (7)

Against Chaos (7) - kraegor, trig, theo, Bubbles, Newcastle, stessier, Remus
Against Remus (2) - bb2112, RMC
Against stessier (1) - redrun
Against Bubbles (1) - El Guapo
Against Newcastle (1) - Qantaga

No Vote - Chaos

More to come...

This is interesting.

So either all three wolves voted for Chaos - rare, but not unheard of, or else RMC is the wolf.

Ok. This to me is perhaps the biggest piece of evidence we've seen in the game so far, and it comes down to this question: would Remus--acting quickly and forcefully--really be willing to be the 3rd wolf in a train of 7 on someone they knew was going to come back as a villager? For me, that's what I'm wrestling with. He came slamming in pretty abruptly with the hang vote on CR.

I guess what I'm thinking is this. Newcastle didn't get "caught" with his hand in the cookie jar until day two when the combination of redrun catching him with no cards shortly after the deadline card was played made him a big suspect (and then confirmed for me when Qantaga died with a Newcastle vote on him when NC hit n-1.) That first day though? Newcastle was maybe suspicious to some, but so was everyone, kind of. I can't speak for the rest of you, but Newcastle was only slightly on my radar, and there were other folks who seemed more suspicious than him that first day.

So what does Remus's vote mean? Would he willingly hang both of his teammates out to dry, so to speak, by putting all 3 wolves on the opening kill train of a villager? I don't know. Maybe he wasn't worried about people analyzing the vote. They would have known that Mr Bubbles was a self-identified Seer, and that everyone on that train would be a prime scan target though. Hmm.

What also interest me, now that I've typed that, is this. They took out Mr Bubbles with no hesitation on Night 1, right? On night 3, with bb2112 completely proven* with the death of Remus, they elected NOT to kill him, and instead killed El Guapo. Why? My own hypothesis is that there was some worry over a Shield card being in play on bb. Why weren't they worried about a Shield card on Mr Bubbles on night 1? Perhaps they were, but having a Seer identified had them "go for it" on a high-risk/high reward play. Maybe they had the Reveal card, and after so many players identified their own card on Day 1, they narrowed their search and knew no shield was in play? Maybe one of them HAD the Shield card and used it?

So Day 1. Here's what I'm looking at.

1. They know Mr Bubbles is the Seer.
2. They know CR is a villager.
3. They know Remus is a suspected wolf by nearly everyone because he's Remus.
4. Remus jumps in before CR gets a chance to do any talking, before El G can play his Deadline card...pretty much before anything and slaps what looks like a very fast hanging vote on CR, an unpowered villager.

All of that seems tied together in a groupthink for the wolves. Would part of that groupthink allow them to all 3 be on one vote train to kill an unpowered, innocent villager? CR's a fine player, but unpowered, is he worth that risk?

I don't know. Perhaps.

For now though, I'm going with a simple calculation that the wolves have played a calculated enough game to have us all kind of stumped here and so I'm guessing that Remus doesn't jump in that quickly if all three wolves are on that train. Honestly, I'm not even sure my thinking puts that at a 60-40 chance of RMC being the third wolf...more like 55-45...but for right now, that's kind of where I'm at. In my mind still, there's a slightly better chance that RMC is the final wolf than not the final wolf.

That seems more likely in my head than the idea of HypotheticalWolf theohall willingly sitting in a vote train as the third wolf on an unpowered CR. It seems more likely than a HypotheticalWolf stessier or HWKraegor (or a HWtriggercut, even!)--all of whom look at stuff like past votes--being happy about being part of 3 wolves in 7 votes on an unpowered villager.

I'm rambling now. I guess what I'm saying is, someone's got to make a better case for stess, Kraegor, or theo before I move my vote from RMC.

[triggercut]

...and now I see that Kraegor is at n-1.

Hmm.

The arguments that he's a wolf are sound, and his almost studious LACK of voting is troublesome--especially the casting of suspicion without actually backing that suspicion up with a vote.

[Kraegor]

The arguments that he's a wolf are sound, and his almost studious LACK of voting is troublesome--especially the casting of suspicion without actually backing that suspicion up with a vote.

So vote for me. Remove a stumbling block if that's how you choose to view me. Game can't go on forever and a staring contest is rather asinine in a forum game.

What also interest me, now that I've typed that, is this. They took out Mr Bubbles with no hesitation on Night 1, right? On night 3, with bb2112 completely proven* with the death of Remus, they elected NOT to kill him, and instead killed El Guapo. Why? My own hypothesis is that there was some worry over a Shield card being in play on bb. Why weren't they worried about a Shield card on Mr Bubbles on night 1? Perhaps they were, but having a Seer identified had them "go for it" on a high-risk/high reward play. Maybe they had the Reveal card, and after so many players identified their own card on Day 1, they narrowed their search and knew no shield was in play? Maybe one of them HAD the Shield card and used it?

Every scenario you've identified leads where? Not to mention it's all moot to begin with. Presume they had shield... net result? already known. Presume reveal card.... net result? already known. Presume lassr told them without asking cuz he's a super nice guy... net result? already known.

Seems you are trying to tie together events that would explain what's happening now. I've illustrated how the net result benefits every player still alive. I do believe day 1 was the most informative as it was the most fluid. But drawing conjecture on what the wolves would or would not have done concerning killing bb2112 merely implies you don't trust bb2112. I don't see how it illuminates anyone else in the village.

All of that seems tied together in a groupthink for the wolves. Would part of that groupthink allow them to all 3 be on one vote train to kill an unpowered, innocent villager?

Risk of what? Yourself and RMC are both backing off of a vote because of a hesitation concerning 3 wolves on a train, therefore the strategy is obviously effective at throwing people off the scent, yes? And in fact that very logic that you use to remain on RMC... RMC is using to avoid voting for stessier... Ironic?

[Kraegor]

]
think some of the voting patterns of Stessier give him enough doubt for me as well.

Dude! Watch what you say. Start throwing around doubt and theo will be humping your leg like a puppy just released from the pound.

[Kraegor]

The arguments that he's a wolf are sound, and his almost studious LACK of voting is troublesome--especially the casting of suspicion without actually backing that suspicion up with a vote.

Tho I consider meta poor etiquette the style has already been abused this game, so I will mention that my studious lack of voting is actually par for the course. I see no reason to place a vote on someone for the sake of placing a vote on them. Is it not obvious that my accusations alone are enough to draw suspicion?

if that's what you need, pretend I'm newcastle, and every time I said something that cast doubt on another player <GASP!!!> envision that I voted with invisible ink. How does that change you perception? Is it like having one of those itty bitty inspected by stickers on an apple? Do you not buy an apple if it lacks a tag? Do you stare at it suspiciously and give passing store employees dirty looks?

[RMC]

The arguments that he's a wolf are sound, and his almost studious LACK of voting is troublesome--especially the casting of suspicion without actually backing that suspicion up with a vote.

Tho I consider meta poor etiquette the style has already been abused this game, so I will mention that my studious lack of voting is actually par for the course. I see no reason to place a vote on someone for the sake of placing a vote on them. Is it not obvious that my accusations alone are enough to draw suspicion?

if that's what you need, pretend I'm newcastle, and every time I said something that cast doubt on another player <GASP!!!> envision that I voted with invisible ink. How does that change you perception? Is it like having one of those itty bitty inspected by stickers on an apple? Do you not buy an apple if it lacks a tag? Do you stare at it suspiciously and give passing store employees dirty looks?

Just to point out, if you don't vote, then there is no proof that you really meant what you said, or were just trying to 'flush' out a wolf...Or something along those lines.

So the 'vote' is not merely ceremonial, it cements intent.

[Kraegor]

Ok. This to me is perhaps the biggest piece of evidence we've seen in the game so far, and it comes down to this question: would Remus--acting quickly and forcefully--really be willing to be the 3rd wolf in a train of 7 on someone they knew was going to come back as a villager? For me, that's what I'm wrestling with. He came slamming in pretty abruptly with the hang vote on CR.

You don't think CR and RW have a side bet every game for who lynches whom first? There's probably and extra $20 for being the final vote...

I'd be more curious about the motivation for rushing the vote. Why not wait and earn brownie points? Well Remus and Newcastle played the "oh my bad, oops!" card in this game. newcastle did it with a drama queen twist and remus tried the mcqueen approach. Who else did the oops I messed up ploy? See what I did there?

[Kraegor]

So the 'vote' is not merely ceremonial, it cements intent.

Sure it does. So what does constantly voting do? Is it like flour and water? How bout when you swap votes amongst several players cuz well that train didn't work so let's try another one and oh damn that one's not working... c'mon guys wtfbbqsauce?

[Kraegor]

So the 'vote' is not merely ceremonial, it cements intent.

Sure it does. So what does constantly voting do? Is it like flour and water? How bout when you swap votes amongst several players cuz well that train didn't work so let's try another one and oh damn that one's not working... c'mon guys wtfbbqsauce?

And understand. By your logic. I have been the most certain player in this game. My vote is the closest thing to cement in comparison to the rest of you hoppers.

[RMC]

So the 'vote' is not merely ceremonial, it cements intent.

Sure it does. So what does constantly voting do? Is it like flour and water? How bout when you swap votes amongst several players cuz well that train didn't work so let's try another one and oh damn that one's not working... c'mon guys wtfbbqsauce?

And understand. By your logic. I have been the most certain player in this game. My vote is the closest thing to cement in comparison to the rest of you hoppers.

Actually I have not voted on that many different people either. One of the reasons that some said I was a wolf...