Lynching Liaisons - The End

[triggercut]

Oh and you're not alone, LM is your vote buddy

Just read back a bit, and so he is.

A train of two.

[Newcastle]

I don't like your play LL. Well, I guess I more do not like your timing of it.

 withdraw redrun 
 


I do not doubt your claim as they are not going to try faking a group and a single Cabal member outed to counter you would be a poor trade for them if you were lying but I do not like this. You just cut off too many avenues of discussion.

I agree with Remus. Silly idea to come out now. And you have cut off way too many avenues. They'll just pluck through that list of yours. Bad move. But what's done is done.

Still liking Lassr as my vote, he seems off.

[Newcastle]

and since i am pausing the haiku's.....what's up w/ Grund? He's made 1 poem thingy, and then disappeared. Is he going to be too busy to participate? I'd consider offing him. hate for him to pull a Cr from last game.

[Newcastle]

I'd also consider voting for Unagi, he's feeling forced to be honest.

[LordMortis]

and since i am pausing the haiku's.....what's up w/ Grund? He's made 1 poem thingy, and then disappeared. Is he going to be too busy to participate? I'd consider offing him. hate for him to pull a Cr from last game.

That's why I respect your move, dislike the others withdrawal from Grund, and I'd have moved to join you if I thought there a chance at lynching him (and was debating joining you in protest).

Sorta meta... I totally agree with Unagi's assessment that absence is poison and think that intentional absence is even more so. And that poison moves a game toward tedious as well as giving shelter to bad guys. The tediousness is worst part IMO. As redrun says, I'd rather lose a fun game win a bad one. All of this, or course, is my personal preference and why I mostly stopped playing these games a long time ago.

Right now the saving grace is, if Grund gets a pass for being some a sacred player of immunity and he is not a wolf then do wolves have to worry about him cabal. He holds a very special LL honor. I think that's at least interesting, even if it is still destructive.

[Unagi]

I do not doubt your claim as they are not going to try faking a group and a single Cabal member outed to counter you would be a poor trade for them if you were lying but I do not like this. You just cut off too many avenues of discussion.

I disagree. Doing this early actually helps, IMO.

Really? So with a week to go before the dealine rather than waiting until folks had been online to look at his posts he goes from causing a big splash (I like that part of the play) to explaining the splash before anyone gets wet and we can detect the bad guys by the smell of wet dog.

I can agree that he should have maybe gave his 'big splash' a little more time and seen how players reacted for maybe a day or over the weekend, but my comment was more about 'on day 1', versus 'day 2'.

[Unagi]

I'd also consider voting for Unagi, he's feeling forced to be honest.

Statements flow
like rocks
Newcastle no likey

[Unagi]

and since i am pausing the haiku's.....what's up w/ Grund? He's made 1 poem thingy, and then disappeared. Is he going to be too busy to participate? I'd consider offing him. hate for him to pull a Cr from last game.

That's why I respect your move, dislike the others withdrawal from Grund, and I'd have moved to join you if I thought there a chance at lynching him (and was debating joining you in protest).

I'm endlessly frustrated by this too. Not really sure what to say about it, other than it seems we are (collectively) unwilling to taint the "fun of the game" by punishing a non-participating player, and hence we are forced to live with the level of fun that leaves us. And it sucks.

[Newcastle]

I'd also consider voting for Unagi, he's feeling forced to be honest.

Statements flow
like rocks
Newcastle no likey

That's not a haiku, try harder.

[triggercut]

and since i am pausing the haiku's.....what's up w/ Grund? He's made 1 poem thingy, and then disappeared. Is he going to be too busy to participate? I'd consider offing him. hate for him to pull a Cr from last game.

That's why I respect your move, dislike the others withdrawal from Grund, and I'd have moved to join you if I thought there a chance at lynching him (and was debating joining you in protest).

I'm endlessly frustrated by this too. Not really sure what to say about it, other than it seems we are (collectively) unwilling to taint the "fun of the game" by punishing a non-participating player, and hence we are forced to live with the level of fun that leaves us. And it sucks.

I'm ok with "punishing" (note the quotes) that play style by voting.

[Unagi]

writing good haikus
is not something we do well
but I am better

[Unagi]

I'm ok with "punishing" (note the quotes) that play style by voting.

I feel lame doing it. I just feel like we shouldn't need to.

[Newcastle]

writing good haikus
is not something we do well
but I am better

needs to be 5-7-5, w/ a nature reference thrown in.

[Vorret]

I kinda dislike player that are AFK most of the game BUT it's day one and we have 22 players so I think we can let it slip for the first day... starting tomorrow (game day) there's no excuse.

[Qantaga]

really...

I don't like your play LL. Well, I guess I more do not like your timing of it.

I think that was a good play , LL. Earlier, I had also thought how it may be good for a single cabal to step forward.

I agree with Remus. Silly idea to come out now. And you have cut off way too many avenues.

Really? So with a week to go before the dealine rather than waiting until folks had been online to look at his posts he goes from causing a big splash (I like that part of the play) to explaining the splash before anyone gets wet and we can detect the bad guys by the smell of wet dog.

I can agree that he should have maybe gave his 'big splash' a little more time and seen how players reacted for maybe a day or over the weekend, but my comment was more about 'on day 1', versus 'day 2'.

We should take the time to speculate about this.

Why did Lagom come out at this particular time? And why was his "Good guys" list so important to his cause?

I was torn this afternoon on whether or not I should drag this out into the open, but if I can imagine this (whether it's true or not), then so can the wolf team.

At the time of Lagom's reveal, redrun was the leading lynch candidate. Lagom's read-through (and subsequent vote on El Guapo) had pulled me back to three votes. trig and theo also had three votes, but redrun was the leading vote-getter at six and, one would guess, he would become increasingly at risk for a lynch as the deadline next Thurs (with very little traction over the last few days) got closer and closer.

The conclusion that leaps out at me is that Lagom felt the need to reveal at this time (without waiting to see if his "read-through" posts netted any nuggets of information/suspicious behavior), and felt the need to include redrun on his "Good guys" list in order to make sure that redrun was not led to the gallows.

So, Lagom's reveal seems to me to have caused one of two results:

A. He has perhaps revealed one of his cabal brothers redrun.
-or-
B. He has inadvertently rescued redrunwolf from the gallows.

I'm debating asking the rest of the Cabal to come out. If they do then the Seer knows he doesn't need scan them. The Hunter can try protecting one of them as long as an odd number are alive (don't do it when there are 2 because if you guess wrong then the wolves will get the third right away although they won't know if you guessed wrong or not so....). Then we can go ahead and lynch whomever we want rather than be hemmed in.

This is a very worthwhile debate to have. On one hand, it will give us some early insight and data into various players' motivations. On the other, it will help the cabal make the best decisions for how they ultimately reveal their knowledge and identities.

Pros to the cabal revealing immediately:

- We would have three provens and the lynch pool would be reduced to give us greater odds of lynching wolves (or the Sorcerer) as long as any cabal members are alive.
- As Remus points out, currently Lagom has restricted our Day 1 lynch pool to nine players and taken 12 players (who knows how many wolves are in that dozen?) off the board. The revelation of the other cabal members would bring ten players back into Day 1 evaluation.
- If the three cabal members reveal today, the wolves will be faced with a significant decision. Do they:

A) methodically knock off the provens, thus allowing the Seer three nights of scans (in addition to his Night O scan)?
-Or-
B) Ignore the proven cabal members and try to hit the Seer, effectively reducing their own hiding places significantly as the days grow longer?

Con to the cabal revealing immediately:

- If the two remaining cabal members reveal today and the wolves decide to pursue the Seer instead of the eliminating the proven cabal members, it will increase the wolves' odds of finding the Seer with a night kill.

It is ultimately up to Lagom and his cabal brethren to decide how they want to play it, but I think a pro/con discussion on the matter will be very informative.

[Qantaga]

El Guapo fun fact: I got a perfect score on the verbal portion of the SAT college admission test.

Qantaga fun fact: I got a perfect score on the math portion. Verbal portion, not so much.

[Unagi]

writing good haikus
is not something we do well
but I am better

needs to be 5-7-5, w/ a nature reference thrown in.

writing good haikus
is not something we do well
I am better, tree.

[Unagi]

El Guapo fun fact: I got a perfect score on the verbal portion of the SAT college admission test.

Qantaga fun fact: I got a perfect score on the math portion. Verbal portion, not so much.

Unagi fun fact: I got an $1,100 speeding ticket in the middle of no-where California back in college. Also, 760 on the math SAT in 6th grade. But alas, I had to just make sure I spelled college right.

[Unagi]

hmm. mulling over the 'cabal reveal'. Ultimately, it's (obviously) their call. It may be a good idea and it may help direct us and the seer, etc.

I'm sure I will mess up the numbers here...

If the 3 cabal were then systematically killed, that would actually imply that they managed to keep Everyone else from dying - and we'd have 4 nights of seer scans, against what would be a pool of (after 3 days) 15 players (? think that's right).

So, the seer could come forward and (lets' just say) tell us who 3 more 'trusted' are (running with that scenario, to keep it simple). Plus himself.

That's 15 - 4 = 11. (15 unknowns, minus the 3 scans and the seer himself)

In that 11, the mentalist could come forth, perhaps making the pool of unknowns 10.
In that 10, the medium could be made to get himself trusted too, making the pool of unknowns 9
And then that leaves us the hunter - bang, we have 8 (and then one shot dead), make that 7 unknowns - with 4 wolves and 1 sorcerer in that group of 7.
That sounds like we'd be doing really good with a somewhat rapid set of reveals. (after 3 days, in the above scenario)

Although, I'm not sure I'm really doing proper analysis there - just kinda one super strange scenario....

There is a pretty good chance that the 3 cabal are not knocked off 1 by 1, and instead the wolves look for the Seer, etc.

Honestly, it's probably not a Horrible play for them all to come forth, but meh- I don't know if it's particularly needed either... I kinda like the ambiguity that Lagom has built into the current model, and probably holding that information has all sorts of advantages in certain situations.

[Remus West]

Unless the wolves kill the hunter at some point then we get at least 4 more nights from the Cabal - possibly more if the Hunter picks the right one to protect the first night.

[Unagi]

Maybe, baby:
triggercut?
purge?
Newcastle?
LordMortis?
Vorret?

Bad guys:
El Guapo
Scoop20906
Chaosraven
Bakhtosh

Of that list, two I wouldn't vote for today are; El Guapo, LM
Four I share mild concerns on: trigg, purge, newcastle, CR
Both trigg is like redrun at this point, where I feel I could extrapolate a good deal from their interactions with others, if I knew their alignment.
Newcastle, is a little like that, but to a lesser degree. Otherwise, I'm not 'hot' on Newcastle that much.

People that indeed concern me: Scoop (He is totally holding back, IMO) and Bakhtosh (where is he?), Vorret to a lesser degree, but if Newcastle is evil, I'd bet vorret is too.

You had a number of people on your good list that I didn't agree with.

redrun - not sure... main reason I'd be ok with a lynch mostly because he intersected with a bunch of people and that would then shed light. Otherwise, he wasn't really catching my eye.
pr0ner - not sure, but I mildly agree with him seeming agressive and human as a result... but not entirely sold.
Qantaga - not sure, watching closely.
Remus West - not sure, although I feel I'm able to read him fairly well. He doesn't scream 'evil' to me yet, but he hasn't really flashed any of his halmark 'absurd plans' that are indeed (I've come to learn) normally hatched by 'villager remus'.
Lassr - can't read Lassr very well at all. Feels mostly normal.
RMC - leaning good on him, just from his 'pacing' of posts...
bb2112 - I felt his moves today seemed wolfy for the most part.
tru1cy - not sure really at all.
theohall - I feel his poke-the-silent stuff today was basically a 'chew toy' to keep him from doing anything else, and he tried to keep himself in the background with it.
Lagom Lite - quite happy to take you off my concern list, Cabal
Grundbegriff* - honorary good guy

In orange are the ones I'd be OK with helping lynch today.

[Lassr]

I thought I read somewhere earlier that we do not get werewolf or villager results and it was up to the cabal to provide that data but that is not how I understood it. Cabal just scans for actual roles. So they would know which wolf we killed or if any villager was a special.

If that is the case then I may be leaning toward a total reveal of the cabal today. If we lost all 3 over the next few days then we just lose the ability to know if a dead seer is faked by the wolves. That is major but something we could live with IF we get wolf or villager on lynch.

[Unagi]

sadistic sob, author of BSG

[bb2112]

Wow, that was a crap load of stuff to read and digest. I hate the reveal btw. In my head I already pushed LL to leaning good and it seemed very unlikely that he was going to get lynched. The only good thing I see is that the wolves probably have a harder time figuring out what to do with that info than the village. The bad is LL is pushing us into a limited vote by ignoring his leaning good players, which being day one, is as likely to harbor wolves as not.

I guess if we are to play along, I would prefer  Purge 
 
.

He seems too quiet and doesn't seem to be stirring the pot like normal.

[Newcastle]

probably best if the cabal reveals. Creates some clarity for us. However, the wolves could simply ignore the cabal for now and try to fish for the other specials we have hiding around. I'd do that if i were a wolf, take a few stabs, hope for the best, then in a couple of turns work on taking down the cabal.

[El Guapo]

I kinda dislike player that are AFK most of the game BUT it's day one and we have 22 players so I think we can let it slip for the first day... starting tomorrow (game day) there's no excuse.

I dunno, if we're going to punish it, then I think day 1 is the ideal day to do it, as the village is probably going to miss on day 1 anyways. Each successive day the village gets more info, so voting based solely on silence is giving up a progressively more informed village vote each day.

[redrun]

I've a number of thoughts on a read-through, and Qantaga's post was just calling for attention:

Why did Lagom come out at this particular time? And why was his "Good guys" list so important to his cause?

I was torn this afternoon on whether or not I should drag this out into the open, but if I can imagine this (whether it's true or not), then so can the wolf team.

At the time of Lagom's reveal, redrun was the leading lynch candidate. Lagom's read-through (and subsequent vote on El Guapo) had pulled me back to three votes. trig and theo also had three votes, but redrun was the leading vote-getter at six and, one would guess, he would become increasingly at risk for a lynch as the deadline next Thurs (with very little traction over the last few days) got closer and closer.

The conclusion that leaps out at me is that Lagom felt the need to reveal at this time (without waiting to see if his "read-through" posts netted any nuggets of information/suspicious behavior), and felt the need to include redrun on his "Good guys" list in order to make sure that redrun was not led to the gallows.

So, Lagom's reveal seems to me to have caused one of two results:

A. He has perhaps revealed one of his cabal brothers redrun.
-or-
B. He has inadvertently rescued redrunwolf from the gallows.

Ah, so I'm either Cabel or Wolf?

Are you sure I'm not the Werewolf hunter? I mean, if I am I'm sitting pretty - I've got someone to protect tonight (Lagom), the wolves are screwed and have to go with random guess - unless they can determine if Lagom took his action to protect *someone*, or unless they can convince another good special to come forward and thus make it hard for the Werewolf hunter to know who to protect. (BTW - I'm not claiming Werewolf hunter, and the real Werewolf Hunter should not step forward to challenge me).

Maybe I'm the mentalist and spoke with a Cabel member last night. All day I've know who Lagom and...somebodies are. (Same disclaimer again - not claiming mentalist, real one should not come forward).

Maybe I'm the seer and one of my posts let a Cabel member know that I scanned him last night. (Same disclaimer again - not claiming seer, real one should not come forward).

Maybe I am Cabel - why is it so important for you to know today? It's going to be a long game, you'll have plenty of time to figure things out. If the wolves don't know, they'll have to take a chance on tonight's kill - assume Lagom was protecting Redrun and kill Redrun hoping to get somewhere, or go random and hope to get lucky.

Maybe, just maybe, Lagom knows no more about me then any other good player knows about me. He's not given me a safety pass, he has in no way stated or implied sure knowledge of me being good - only that he thinks I'm good due to my style of play. He could be wrong - does that question really need to be answered today? By Qantaga's logic, as long as it isn't answered, I'm the most likely lynch tonight, or my odds of being a wolf go up. Works for me.

Finally (and not addressed to Qantaga in particular)... why is Grund's manner of play suddenly so important? It seems to be that it became a quiet issue after he posted - until Lagom's move, and now suddenly we've got a couple of folks saying we should again make it a priority.

My gut feeling is that the wolves are nervous - Lagom's play has put them in a bad spot, and they are looking for a path to better ground. They'd like to have more than just Lagom out'ed, so as to make the hunter have to guess on protection. They'd like to get rid of the three person block (Cabel) and it's going to be hard to do so if the first night each member comes forth they are protected. They'd like to know if Lagom was protecting someone when he came out. They'd like to ensure that they have a good chance to kill a special tonight. They'd like to move the lynch away from Lagom's list. Good players can say that they would prefer not to vote for this player or that, but really, we're still doing a lot of guessing. Wolves on the other hand do know wolves, and do not want folks picking from a shorter list if the shorter list contains one or more wolves.

[triggercut]

I will echo redrun: I have no idea why it makes a lick of sense to be calling for the rest of the Cabal to out themselves.

And I am very, very suspicious of Qantaga all of a sudden.

[Grundbegriff]

Too long a night to linger and wonder,
As one by one we're cast away.
The feral shadows rend us asunder,
And who will stand at break of day?

Chant by the moonlight.
Chant by the dawn.
Sing me the evensong,
And I shall lead us on.

[Lagom Lite]

Could we get a vote update please? Mr Mod?

[Lagom Lite]

Calling for the reveal of the other Cabal members is a terrible idea. It narrows down the pool of players that might be the Seer, so the wolves can kill him in the night.

Here's the thing: I know the identity of three players. That's more than the Seer knows currently. By revealing myself now and splitting the vote target in two, I've given my knowledge to the village while not destroying too many hiding-places for the Seer.

Should I have come out later? How about three days before deadline, forcing us to do a mad rush for voting majority, most likely ill-conceived and driven by wolves? No - this is the best thing I could have done right now. Cabal knowledge of living players diminishes in value over time and is at the strongest in the early game.

Now, unless you're certain that there are no wolves in my list (and how could you be?), I'd recommend discussing which one we might lynch today. Tomorrow is a new discussion but please don't make the Seer's life any harder than I just did.

[Lagom Lite]

I'm debating asking the rest of the Cabal to come out. If they do then the Seer knows he doesn't need scan them. The Hunter can try protecting one of them as long as an odd number are alive (don't do it when there are 2 because if you guess wrong then the wolves will get the third right away although they won't know if you guessed wrong or not so....). Then we can go ahead and lynch whomever we want rather than be hemmed in.

This is a stupid thing to say. Are you the Sorcerer? One thing I do know: Remus West is not a member of the Cabal, so feel free to vote for him.

Obviously, the Seer would be wise to scan a player in my suspect list. The wolves would be wise to night-kill a player in my Good guy-list. The Hunter should not want more than one outed player to protect (if he would even care to protect a lowly Cabalist, which I doubt).

As for being "hemmed in", there are still like 10 players to vote for. Are you really running out of options that badly?

[Lagom Lite]

SUSPECTS:

purge?
Newcastle?
LordMortis?
Vorret?

Remus West?
triggercut?

El Guapo
Scoop20906
Chaosraven
Bakhtosh

[triggercut]

BTW, Qantaga, for what it's worth, I certainly didn't catch the significance of redrun being on Lagom's good list.

That you pointed it out seems like you're saying "Let me talk the rest of the Cabal into stepping out." behavior.

I don't know whether there's any significance to redrun being on his list. Perhaps he's just pinging LL as good...

...but there you are, on LL's good list...so I don't feel comfortable pressing you to a vote right now, either.

I'll say this: if I'd have thought of that (and kudos to you for doing so) I'd have sure kept it under my hat, but diff'rent strokes, as they say.

LL has a list of 10 up now. I know that I am a villager, so from my viewpoint (and obviously no one else's), the hunting field is 9 players.

I think there's an exceptional probability that 1 wolf is among those 9.

I think there's a very good probability that 2 wolves are among those 9.

I think there's a reasonable probability that maybe 3 wolves are among those 9.

Thus and so. I think it was smart of LL to reveal the way he has, and I think it's a lousy play for anyone else in the Cabal to come forward.

I think Qantaga's assertion that this was a ploy to save redrunWolf is pretty easily dismissed and silly, btw. It's another reason he's just pinging the hell out of my badguy radar at the moment, but I suppose that's something for later in the game.

[tru1cy]

I don't get the push to reveal the rest of the cabal, but I am dead set against it. It's the cabal decision ultimately but I think it's unwise at this juncture.

Probably will have a vote by Monday

[Lassr]

Not sure there was much of a push to reveal. Just some thoughts on should they reveal now that LL has revealed. I'm 50/50 on it.

There are benefits on staying hidden and to revealing their identity. Which out weighs the other? I don't know.

[RMC]

In my opinion the Cabal has a harder decision for the next day whether to reveal then or not. It makes no sense to reveal today, as it just gives the wolf some extra targets.

We already have a list that does not include the cabal members to choose from, so the reveal does nothing for us at all currently.

[Chaosraven]

and since i am pausing the haiku's.....what's up w/ Grund? He's made 1 poem thingy, and then disappeared. Is he going to be too busy to participate? I'd consider offing him. hate for him to pull a Cr from last game.

Hey now, his poem has my LastGame "Participation on Day One" beat already.

[Chaosraven]

Logically, the remaining Cabal should NOT reveal themselves, unless Lagom is lying. Which would make for a bizzaro move on a wolfs part, given the number of players.

In the event the Cabal does not include Lagom, one of them should step forward before we vote.
If that doesn't happen, we can trust:
(1) Lagom
(2) Lagoms information on Who Got Killed
(3) Lagoms eventual reveal of his partners.

In the event Lagom dies, a second member should appear and continue.
In the event THAT player dies (or a member dies before Lagom) we will be unable to trust a third claim of a solo Cabal.

[Chaosraven]

And I am certainly ok with  Remus West