Lynching Liaisons - The End

[pr0ner]

Too long a night to linger and wonder,
As one by one we're cast away.
The feral shadows rend us asunder,
And who will stand at break of day?

Chant by the moonlight.
Chant by the dawn.
Sing me the evensong,
And I shall lead us on.

Did you seriously just say you're going to punt on Day 1 and start playing on Day 2?

[Qantaga]

I've a number of thoughts on a read-through, and Qantaga's post was just calling for attention:

So, Lagom's reveal seems to me to have caused one of two results:

A. He has perhaps revealed one of his cabal brothers redrun.
-or-
B. He has inadvertently rescued redrunwolf from the gallows.

Ah, so I'm either Cabel or Wolf? ...

Are you sure I'm not the Werewolf hunter? ...

Maybe I'm the mentalist and spoke with a Cabel member last night. All day I've know who Lagom and...somebodies are. ...

Maybe I'm the seer and one of my posts let a Cabel member know that I scanned him last night. ...

Maybe I am Cabel - why is it so important for you to know today? It's going to be a long game, you'll have plenty of time to figure things out. If the wolves don't know, they'll have to take a chance on tonight's kill - assume Lagom was protecting Redrun and kill Redrun hoping to get somewhere, or go random and hope to get lucky. ...

Maybe, just maybe, Lagom knows no more about me then any other good player knows about me. He's not given me a safety pass, he has in no way stated or implied sure knowledge of me being good - only that he thinks I'm good due to my style of play. He could be wrong - does that question really need to be answered today? By Qantaga's logic, as long as it isn't answered, I'm the most likely lynch tonight, or my odds of being a wolf go up. Works for me. .

redrun, you are correct in all you say. Every scenario you list is, of course, possible. I think you're missing the parts of my post that I bolded above. In quoting my post, you forgot to include the very first line where I said, "We should take the time to speculate about this."

The point of my post was not that you are only Cabal or Wolf, but it was my speculation as to why Lagom chose to reveal when he had no heat on himself and why he chose that moment to do so. The "-or-" part only meant that if you aren't a cabal member, Lagom may have inadvertently just let a wolf off the hook. It did not, by any means, exclude all other possibilities.

I could easily be mistaken. As a matter of fact, here's a flaw in my own speculation. If you (redrun) are a part of the cabal, why would Lagom need to come out? Why wouldn't cabal member redrun be the one to step forward?

I have no idea what the truth is, but I believe we need to look at every possibility.

I do want to address this specifically:

Maybe I am Cabel - why is it so important for you to know today?

It's not important for me to know today. The discussion is what's important to me today.

[Qantaga]

I will echo redrun: I have no idea why it makes a lick of sense to be calling for the rest of the Cabal to out themselves.

And I am very, very suspicious of Qantaga all of a sudden.

trig, I'm not calling for the rest of the Cabal to out themselves. I think you need to take a closer look at the intent of my post:

This is a very worthwhile debate to have. On one hand, it will give us some early insight and data into various players' motivations. On the other, it will help the cabal make the best decisions for how they ultimately reveal their knowledge and identities. ...

It is ultimately up to Lagom and his cabal brethren to decide how they want to play it, but I think a pro/con discussion on the matter will be very informative. .

[Qantaga]

BTW, Qantaga, for what it's worth, I certainly didn't catch the significance of redrun being on Lagom's good list.

That you pointed it out seems like you're saying "Let me talk the rest of the Cabal into stepping out." behavior.

I don't know whether there's any significance to redrun being on his list. Perhaps he's just pinging LL as good...

...but there you are, on LL's good list...so I don't feel comfortable pressing you to a vote right now, either.

I'll say this: if I'd have thought of that (and kudos to you for doing so) I'd have sure kept it under my hat, but diff'rent strokes, as they say.

trig, why is my bringing up a fairly obvious possibility interpreted as "let me talk the rest of the Cabal into stepping out?"

And why would I keep this under my hat?

If it can occur to me, don't you think at least one of four wolves would have raised the possibility in their own secret discussions?

Why would we want to avoid the discussion around it?

[stessier]

Day 1 Vote Count

Spoiler:

• Scoop acc Qantaga (1)
  Bakhtosh acc Newcastle (1)
  bb2112 acc LordMortis (1)
  tru1cy acc Grundbegriff (1)
  Lassr acc redrun (1)
  theohall acc Chaosraven (1)
  LordMortis acc bb2112 (1)
  Lagom Lite acc Chaosraven (2)
  Remus West acc Newcastle (2)
  Bakhtosh wd Newcastle (1)
  Bakhtosh acc RMC (1)
  Vorret acc Grundbegriff (2)
  redrun acc Lassr (1)
  El Guapo acc Newcastle (2)
  RMC acc El Guapo (1)
  Lagom Lite wd Chaosraven (1)
  Lagom LIte acc Scoop (1)
  Unagi acc pr0ner (1)
  pr0ner acc Newcastle (3)
  bb2112 wd LordMortis (0)
  bb2112 acc Qantaga (2)
  Scoop wd Qantaga (1)
  Scoop acc Newcastle (4)
  theohall wd Chaosraven (0)
  theohall acc Grundbegriff (3)
  bb2112 wd Qantaga (0)
  bb2112 acc Newcastle (5)
• Newcastle acc Grundbegriff (4)
  Lagom LIte wd Scoop (0)
  Lagom Lite acc Grundbegriff (5)
  LordMortis wd bb2112 (0)
  LordMortis acc Qantaga (1)
  Unagi wd pr0ner (0)
  Unagi acc theohall (1)
  LordMortis wd Qantaga (0)
  LordMortis acc theohall (2)
  Vorret wd Grund (4)
  bb2112 wd Newcastle (4)
  bb2112 acc Lagom LIte (1)
  Scoop wd Newcastle (3)
  Scoop acc El Guapo (2)
  trig acc Scoop (1)
  theohall wd Grund (3)
  tru1cy wd Grund (2)
  Lagom wd Grund (1)
  Lagom acc Scoop (2)
  theohall acc Unagi (1)
  LordMortis wd theohall (1)
  Qantaga acc Lagom Lite (2)
  bb2112 wd Lagom Lite (1)
  bb2112 acc theohall (2)
  redrun wd Lassr (0)
  redrun acc Qantaga (1)
  bb2112 wd theohall (1)
  bb2112 acc Qantaga (2)
  Chaos acc Qantaga (3)
  Remus wd Newcastle (2)
  Remus acc redrun (2)
  Lagom wd Scoop (1)
  Lagom acc Qantaga (4)
  theohall wd Unagi (0)
  theohall acc bb2112 (1)
  RMC wd El Guapo (0)
• RMC acc redrun (3)
  LordMortis acc theohall (2)
  Bakhtosh wd RMC (0)
• Bakhtosh acc redrun (4)
  tru1cy acc redrun (5)
  Vorret acc redrun (6)
  El Guapo wd Newcastle (1)
• El Guapo acc theohall (3)
  pr0ner wd Newcastle (0)
• pr0ner acc triggercut (1)
  Scoop wd El Guapo (0)
• Scoop acc triggercut (2)
  Lagom wd Qantaga (3)
• Lagom acc El Guapo (1)
  theohall wd bb2112 (0)
• theohall acc triggercut (3)
  triggercut wd Scoop (0)
  triggercut acc Lagom (2)
  LordMortis wd theohall (2)
• LordMortis acc Vorret (1)
  triggercut wd Lagom (1)
  triggercut acc theohall (3)
  Vorret wd redrun (5)
• Vorret acc triggercut (4)
  Qantaga wd Lagom (0)
  triggercut wd theohall (2)
• triggercut acc Vorret (2)
  tru1cy wd redrun (4)
  Remus wd redrun (3)
  Lassr wd redrun (2)
  Unagi wd theohall (1)
• Unagi acc Scoop (1)
  redrun wd Qantaga (2)
  bb2112 wd Qantaga (1)
• bb2112 acc Purge (1)
  Chaosraven wd Qantaga (0)
• Chaosraven acc Remus West (1)

Votes required for lynch - 11

Against triggercut (4) - pr0ner, Scoop20906, theohall, Vorret
Against redrun (2) - RMC, Bakhtosh
Against Vorret (2) - LordMortis, triggercut
Against theohall (1) - El Guapo
Against El Guapo (1) - Lagom Lite
Against Grundbegriff (1) - Newcastle
Against Scoop (1) - Unagi
Against Purge (1) - bb2112
Against Remus (1) - Chaosraven

No votes (7) - Purge, Grundbegriff, Qantaga, tru1cy, Remus West, Lassr, redrun

There are 17 villagers alive. The deadline for the lynch vote is June 6th at 9pm Eastern time.

[Qantaga]

I think Qantaga's assertion that this was a ploy to save redrunWolf is pretty easily dismissed and silly, btw.

That's not my assertion at all.

Why in the world would Lagom devise a ploy to save redrunwolf?

[Lassr]

BTW, Qantaga, for what it's worth, I certainly didn't catch the significance of redrun being on Lagom's good list.

That you pointed it out seems like you're saying "Let me talk the rest of the Cabal into stepping out." behavior.

I don't know whether there's any significance to redrun being on his list. Perhaps he's just pinging LL as good...

...but there you are, on LL's good list...so I don't feel comfortable pressing you to a vote right now, either.

I'll say this: if I'd have thought of that (and kudos to you for doing so) I'd have sure kept it under my hat, but diff'rent strokes, as they say.

trig, why is my bringing up a fairly obvious possibility interpreted as "let me talk the rest of the Cabal into stepping out?"

And why would I keep this under my hat?

If it can occur to me, don't you think at least one of four wolves would have raised the possibility in their own secret discussions?

Why would we want to avoid the discussion around it?

I agree with Q here. It was the first thing that popped into my head and is the reason why I did not immediately withdraw my vote on redrun. But I also thought that if redrun was cabal then redrun would have come forward instead of LL.

[Unagi]

I think Qantaga's assertion that this was a ploy to save redrunWolf is pretty easily dismissed and silly, btw. It's another reason he's just pinging the hell out of my badguy radar at the moment, but I suppose that's something for later in the game.

I don't think you read Qantaga's point on that correctly. He was saying that IF redrun wasn't part of the Cabal, then redrun could indeed be a wolf, and hence LL would have just unknowingly rescued him. Not that it was a ploy to do that.

[Unagi]

sorry, hadn't caught up...

[Remus West]

I'm debating asking the rest of the Cabal to come out. If they do then the Seer knows he doesn't need scan them. The Hunter can try protecting one of them as long as an odd number are alive (don't do it when there are 2 because if you guess wrong then the wolves will get the third right away although they won't know if you guessed wrong or not so....). Then we can go ahead and lynch whomever we want rather than be hemmed in.

This is a stupid thing to say. Are you the Sorcerer? One thing I do know: Remus West is not a member of the Cabal, so feel free to vote for him.

Obviously, the Seer would be wise to scan a player in my suspect list. The wolves would be wise to night-kill a player in my Good guy-list. The Hunter should not want more than one outed player to protect (if he would even care to protect a lowly Cabalist, which I doubt).

As for being "hemmed in", there are still like 10 players to vote for. Are you really running out of options that badly?

I agree with Q here. It was the first thing that popped into my head and is the reason why I did not immediately withdraw my vote on redrun. But I also thought that if redrun was cabal then redrun would have come forward instead of LL.

I fully agree with this and have been debating putting my vote back on redrun.

[tru1cy]

I agree with Q here. It was the first thing that popped into my head and is the reason why I did not immediately withdraw my vote on redrun. But I also thought that if redrun was cabal then redrun would have come forward instead of LL.

I fully agree with this and have been debating putting my vote back on redrun.

This I agree with  redrun 
 

[Vorret]

Damn...

Something is wrong... I'm going to remove my vote for now.

 withdraw Triggercut 
 

[LordMortis]

going to punish it, then I think day 1 is the ideal day to do it, as the village is probably going to miss on day 1 anyways. Each successive day the village gets more info, so voting based solely on silence is giving up a progressively more informed village vote each day.

Concurred.

why is Grund's manner of play suddenly so important? It seems to be that it became a quiet issue after he posted - until Lagom's move, and now suddenly we've got a couple of folks saying we should again make it a priority.

It's always been "important" IMO. I don't think it was quiet at all and largely responsible for my vote on Theo and a big part of "grrrrr" on LL and Lassr (I think) Reading through, it looked to me LL's move from my perspective was to protect himself and Grund than to protect you. He got special treatment. He was the only absent player in LLs list to get a pass. But then from where I sit the only absent players who would ultimately get a pass are members of the cabal, so that's my bias. OTOH, if I second guess myself, I would wonder why it's Grund who would come out as cabal. But we get a lot good games out of this.

If I read correctly the mentalist can contact LL tonight while the hunter protects him. Keeping LL as a beacon and opening the way for a trust group of 4.

They'd like to ensure that they have a good chance to kill a special tonight.

As far as I can tell their goal in kills should be 1) to improve their lot among whom to hide in. 2) Kill the circle of people whom can't be denied. Assuming LL is put is brothers in his "good" group, wolf kills should come from his good group, still leaving them with the potential problem of any wolves in his good group eventually sticking out.

Which I think is also potentially interesting. Is it better for the seer so see people in "good" group or in the not good group?

Too long a night to linger and wonder

And that just sound like a taunt from the guy who still does nothing.


Other assumptions on my part. LL has put some sort of code speak with brothers. That will be made apparent by LLs own words upon his death and the cipher of his bothers. RR implies that he's seen is somewhere. I'm too dense to find codes if they aren't spelled out for me. If LL hasn't set up some sort of impossible to decipher code made apparent by his comrades, I think it may be wise to start doing so now, but that's me.

This I agree with  redrun 
 

And this I don't understand. When the only concrete(ish) things we have to go on today are

1) LL is Cabal
2) While I don't think he's been explicit about it, it's been fairly well implied that 2 of these are Cabal:

redrun
Unagi
pr0ner
Qantaga
Remus West
Lassr
RMC
bb2112
tru1cy
theohall
Lagom Lite
Grundbegriff*

3) Remus is not Cabal

Which is to say the there is more weight to being wolves in the remaining players and that votes in this group are dead weight. If we are to ignore LL's guidance then I am jumping right back on Theo and I think we are going to end up in a bad way today. LL has given us a narrowed field. A gift we rarely get on day one.

[redrun]

Too long a night to linger and wonder,
As one by one we're cast away.
The feral shadows rend us asunder,
And who will stand at break of day?

Chant by the moonlight.
Chant by the dawn.
Sing me the evensong,
And I shall lead us on.

Did you seriously just say you're going to punt on Day 1 and start playing on Day 2?

Actually, I think he said he's punting on day one, and expects to be elected village leader on day 2.

[Vorret]

Too long a night to linger and wonder,
As one by one we're cast away.
The feral shadows rend us asunder,
And who will stand at break of day?

Chant by the moonlight.
Chant by the dawn.
Sing me the evensong,
And I shall lead us on.

Did you seriously just say you're going to punt on Day 1 and start playing on Day 2?

Actually, I think he said he's punting on day one, and expects to be elected village leader on day 2.

He's gonna need a bit more than a poem to do that.
Like, I dunno, nude pictures of our Seer.

[redrun]

I think Qantaga's assertion that this was a ploy to save redrunWolf is pretty easily dismissed and silly, btw. It's another reason he's just pinging the hell out of my badguy radar at the moment, but I suppose that's something for later in the game.

I cannot see in any fashion how Qantaga's post could be taken as saying Lagom's move was a ploy to save redrunWolf.

[Newcastle]

to even further blow up the Q thought process...what if LL is not only protecting the other two Cabal members, but also the mentalist? Now, to quote Q....."if it's occured to me, am sure its occured to the wolves". I still dont like the play at face value currently. If there is other machinations behind it, then so be it.

In terms of the list if it was to protect your cabal brothers and make a public way of being able to identify each other, i'd think there would be other and better ways to do it, rather than a hands off list.

I also dont like that list that LL provided. Namely because it cut off the two who i've highly suspected throughout this day, though one is fading a bit (that being Unagi & Lassr). Though who the heck is gonna follow me on a train, i dont have that sway.

Anyway, I guess Grund is paying attention since we rang his gong yesterday and he delivered a lovely poem for us.

I still dont see the downside of the cabal revealing themselves now. I can see value in the remaining two revealing later to better clear up the fog. BUT, i can also see their reveal now helping push the wolf team on the defensive. Of course it would require them sacrificing themselves, and us losing their coroner ability. BUT it could potentially lead to some gut wrenching choices on team wolf and perhaps some blocks by the hunter.

[redrun]

Too many wolves.

All subjective:

likely: Tru1cy, Remus, Newcastle
Possible: Unagi, El Gaupo, Triggercut, RMC, Lassr
Maybe leaning good: Vorret, LordMortis
Good: Lagom Lite

Tru1cy has been setting off "I'm guilty" fireworks for me for a bit.
Remus seems to me to either be Evil, or wearing blinders.
Newcastle has come out of his poetry, and I'm not liking what I see.
Triggercut... I don't get it. His pushing on Qantaga has moved him into the "might learn stuff if he is put to the final test".

SUSPECTS:

purge?
Newcastle?
LordMortis?
Vorret?

Remus West?
triggercut?

El Guapo
Scoop20906
Chaosraven
Bakhtosh

Newcastle, Remus, Triggercut, or El Guapo? Newcastle and El Guapo can wait. I think Remus tells us more about Triggercut, then Triggercut tells us about Remus.

 Remus West 
 

[Remus West]

going to punish it, then I think day 1 is the ideal day to do it, as the village is probably going to miss on day 1 anyways. Each successive day the village gets more info, so voting based solely on silence is giving up a progressively more informed village vote each day.

Concurred.

why is Grund's manner of play suddenly so important? It seems to be that it became a quiet issue after he posted - until Lagom's move, and now suddenly we've got a couple of folks saying we should again make it a priority.

It's always been "important" IMO. I don't think it was quiet at all and largely responsible for my vote on Theo and a big part of "grrrrr" on LL and Lassr (I think) Reading through, it looked to me LL's move from my perspective was to protect himself and Grund than to protect you. He got special treatment. He was the only absent player in LLs list to get a pass. But then from where I sit the only absent players who would ultimately get a pass are members of the cabal, so that's my bias. OTOH, if I second guess myself, I would wonder why it's Grund who would come out as cabal. But we get a lot good games out of this.

If I read correctly the mentalist can contact LL tonight while the hunter protects him. Keeping LL as a beacon and opening the way for a trust group of 4.

They'd like to ensure that they have a good chance to kill a special tonight.

As far as I can tell their goal in kills should be 1) to improve their lot among whom to hide in. 2) Kill the circle of people whom can't be denied. Assuming LL is put is brothers in his "good" group, wolf kills should come from his good group, still leaving them with the potential problem of any wolves in his good group eventually sticking out.

Which I think is also potentially interesting. Is it better for the seer so see people in "good" group or in the not good group?

Too long a night to linger and wonder

And that just sound like a taunt from the guy who still does nothing.


Other assumptions on my part. LL has put some sort of code speak with brothers. That will be made apparent by LLs own words upon his death and the cipher of his bothers. RR implies that he's seen is somewhere. I'm too dense to find codes if they aren't spelled out for me. If LL hasn't set up some sort of impossible to decipher code made apparent by his comrades, I think it may be wise to start doing so now, but that's me.

This I agree with  redrun 
 

And this I don't understand. When the only concrete(ish) things we have to go on today are

1) LL is Cabal
2) While I don't think he's been explicit about it, it's been fairly well implied that 2 of these are Cabal:

redrun
Unagi
pr0ner
Qantaga
Remus West
Lassr
RMC
bb2112
tru1cy
theohall
Lagom Lite
Grundbegriff*

3) Remus is not Cabal

Which is to say the there is more weight to being wolves in the remaining players and that votes in this group are dead weight. If we are to ignore LL's guidance then I am jumping right back on Theo and I think we are going to end up in a bad way today. LL has given us a narrowed field. A gift we rarely get on day one.

Lagom's list includes 12 players (well, before he booted me it did) leaving 10 in the other group. Remove 3 (Lagom and his 2 brothers) for the Cabal and the split becomes 9 in his "good" group to 10 in the "other" group. Practically an even split. Exactly how much more weight are you giving to the "other" group containing the wolves?

Also, why is Grund's relative silence so important when he is not even the most quiet player right now. Where is Bahktosh? Scoop?

[Newcastle]

Since i am kind of lazy - what was the case against redrun?

[LordMortis]

Lagom's list includes 12 players (well, before he booted me it did) leaving 10 in the other group. Remove 3 (Lagom and his 2 brothers) for the Cabal and the split becomes 9 in his "good" group to 10 in the "other" group. Practically an even split. Exactly how much more weight are you giving to the "other" group containing the wolves?

2 among 10 are presumably known to be good by LL. Versus 0 among 11 on the other list. What are you giving more weight to?

Also, why is Grund's relative silence so important when he is not even the most quiet player right now. Where is Bahktosh? Scoop?

Against triggercut (4) - pr0ner, Scoop20906, theohall, Vorret
Against redrun (2) - RMC, Bakhtosh

Whereas grund has done what? Implied he will be our leader tomorrow? Worthy of pr0ner like scorn. (This does not mean forget about Bakhtosh or Scoop or even Purge for that matter)

[Remus West]

Your numbers are wrong.

Good guys:
redrun
Unagi
pr0ner
Qantaga
Lassr
RMC
bb2112
tru1cy
theohall
Lagom Lite
Grundbegriff*

Maybe, baby:
triggercut?
purge?
Newcastle?
LordMortis?
Vorret?
El Guapo
Scoop20906
Chaosraven
Bakhtosh
Remus West

Above is Lagom's final list with my name removed from the good and placed in maybe.
11 in good. 10 in maybe.
3 Cabal in good so 8 potential wolves.
9 potential wolves in maybe.

This is AFTER he decided I no longer merit good status.

BEFORE he changed his mind on me the numbers were:
12 in good. 9 in maybe.
3 Cabal in good. 8 potential wolves in "good" and 9 in maybe.

1 difference between the groups in both cases.

[Remus West]

Whereas grund has done what? Implied he will be our leader tomorrow? Worthy of pr0ner like scorn. (This does not mean forget about Bakhtosh or Scoop or even Purge for that matter)

Also, I was not bringing it up to compare those three but rather to point out that those who keep speaking to the Grundbesilent are ignoring those who are equally as guilty of silence. Why? If the silence is such a huge issue why do those others get a pass?

[LordMortis]

Your numbers are wrong.

Good guys:
redrun
Unagi
pr0ner
Qantaga
Lassr
RMC
bb2112
tru1cy
theohall
Lagom Lite
Grundbegriff*

Maybe, baby:
triggercut?
purge?
Newcastle?
LordMortis?
Vorret?
El Guapo
Scoop20906
Chaosraven
Bakhtosh
Remus West

Above is Lagom's final list with my name removed from the good and placed in maybe.
11 in good. 10 in maybe.
3 Cabal in good so 8 potential wolves.
9 potential wolves in maybe.

This is AFTER he decided I no longer merit good status.

BEFORE he changed his mind on me the numbers were:
12 in good. 9 in maybe.
3 Cabal in good. 8 potential wolves in "good" and 9 in maybe.

1 difference between the groups in both cases.

And so what? Work your math to whatever it is that make you happy and show me how picking from:

redrun
Unagi
pr0ner
Qantaga
Lassr
RMC
bb2112
tru1cy
theohall
Lagom Lite
Grundbegriff*

Where LL is presumably telling us he knows two are good guys is better than picking from

triggercut?
purge?
Newcastle?
LordMortis?
Vorret?
El Guapo
Scoop20906
Chaosraven
Bakhtosh
Remus West

Which brings me back to what is it you are giving more weight to? What is it you expect me/us to know beyond what LL is telling us?

Exactly how much more weight are you giving to the "other" group containing the wolves?

What is this fishing for? A math breakdown? I don't have it. Why didn't you do the math your self? Say what you mean to say. Why numbers do you have that say screw LL revelation, there's a better plan?

[Newcastle]

Whereas grund has done what? Implied he will be our leader tomorrow? Worthy of pr0ner like scorn. (This does not mean forget about Bakhtosh or Scoop or even Purge for that matter)

Also, I was not bringing it up to compare those three but rather to point out that those who keep speaking to the Grundbesilent are ignoring those who are equally as guilty of silence. Why? If the silence is such a huge issue why do those others get a pass?

maybe because grund has a bigger impact on games when he chooses to participate for better or worse. I'd say Bakshot is also being quiet and so is scoop. But i am wondering if scoop is simply gunshy because he doesnt want to be the day 1 pinata for the second game in a row. At least purge has posted a few.

[Newcastle]

I guess with LL's list, i dont mind being on the "maybe/evil" side. I really dont care to be honest. I do mind that it cut off half the population from being opened up to being prodded today. We dont know the truth of his list, but rather I would assume a gut instinct with his other two cabalists.

Just to tease out the thought process a bit more. And to do some quick math (some small mistakes might be made, just trying to get at ball park). There were 22 players at the start right? 21 today, w/ 4 wolves. Wolves win when they hit 8 players remaining. So thats roughly 6-7 days from now.


NOW, if the cabal comes out. That means there would be 17 players unknown (-3 cabal, -1 self).

This would enable the seer to better focus their scan. Actually for the seer it would be 16 players unknown including 1 scan.

Also need to keep into account that for the wolves - they are at 16 players unknown (-4 self, -1 LL). If cabal comes out that means that's reduced their hunting grounds to 14.

Just wanted to run these numbers out, something to chew on. IF the cabal does come out, they also do provide a pressing choice for the Wolves to deal with. We have about 6-7 days left. They could serve as helping clear hte fog of war for the village and to a small and better extent the wolves.

The wolves would have to deal with the cabal at some point, whether tonight or three days from now. They cant let known innocents be out there. They deal better in the shadows.

What's the downside of them coming out now? I really dont see it, you've already revealed part of yourselves.

I realize LL has given the seer and small hunting ground in his "maybe/evil category". BUt not all of those in his "good" list have been cleared. At best are 3-4.

Cabal should come out.

[LordMortis]

Whereas grund has done what? Implied he will be our leader tomorrow? Worthy of pr0ner like scorn. (This does not mean forget about Bakhtosh or Scoop or even Purge for that matter)

Also, I was not bringing it up to compare those three but rather to point out that those who keep speaking to the Grundbesilent are ignoring those who are equally as guilty of silence. Why? If the silence is such a huge issue why do those others get a pass?

And I was pointing out the difference (for me). A measurable (and intentionally defiant) notice of being mute which not even Scoop, BT, CR or Purge have been.

"Look, you know how hard it's going to be to get 11 of 21 people to agree on something. How about you get 11 or 20 and see how much easier it is."

This is the same dance and the same discussion.

[triggercut]

Cabal should come out.

No.

Just no.

[LordMortis]

What's the downside of them coming out now? I really dont see it, you've already revealed part of yourselves.

Potential downsides I see: Bigger field for protector to protect. Gives power of directed kills and once the brotherhood is dead make wolf spoofing easier.
Up sides: To have a better place to hide in they must kill the brotherhood before hoping to kill other specials.

[Newcastle]

Cabal should come out.

No.

Just no.

why not? I've not seen a major downside? It helps clear up the field for team good, and yes opens up a squosh more for team evil. Shows a better path for our seer to scan. Also forces the wolves to have to deal w/ the cabal and really takes away their choice of night snacks. Now instead of everyone, they are forced to deal w/ 3 other true good players.

So why...JUST NO?

[Newcastle]

What's the downside of them coming out now? I really dont see it, you've already revealed part of yourselves.

Potential downsides I see: Bigger field for protector to protect. Gives power of directed kills and once the brotherhood is dead make wolf spoofing easier.
Up sides: To have a better place to hide in they must kill the brotherhood before hoping to kill other specials.

is it just me, or does that sound like its coming form the wolf perspective?

[LordMortis]

is it just me, or does that sound like its coming form the wolf perspective?

meh

[Chaosraven]

By coming out, LL has narrowed our search to 19 other players (assuming no selfvoting).
He knows his 2 partners, so to him/them it is 17.

The wolves know themselves (4 of 21)
The wolves know Lagom, leaving 16 players to find their "targets"
As the Cabal are 2/3 expendable, assume they would RATHER kill the other specials.

By revealing the other 2, rather than spend 3 days playing Tag with a protector, would they not be more likely to go for the other specials amongst the smaller pool of 14?

To me that alone is reason to leave them out of it for today.

Stop helping the furry.

[Chaosraven]

Also, assuming the Cabal stays alive and hidden, their info could even be held to discourage spoofing... hmmm

[Vorret]

At least we'll know who Holman was tomorrow, let's hope they didn't luck out on the seer like we did last game

[LordMortis]

Also, assuming the Cabal stays alive and hidden, their info could even be held to discourage spoofing... hmmm

Hey... One of just said that...

[Chaosraven]

Also, assuming the Cabal stays alive and hidden, their info could even be held to discourage spoofing... hmmm

Hey... One of just said that...

Really?

Mine meant: "Cabal holds info BACK until important"

[Newcastle]

By revealing the other 2, rather than spend 3 days playing Tag with a protector, would they not be more likely to go for the other specials amongst the smaller pool of 14?

Sure i can see that...BUT...they will HAVE to start nibbling into the cabal at some point in the next 6 days....why not have them start worrying about it now? Any which way you can throw monkey wrenches and have the wolves think about more things than needed....is a good thing by my book.

Yeah, i'd probably work on the population of 14 initially, but you know in the days to come they will have to deal w/ an outted good 3 block. Thats just too damn powerful to ignore.

[Chaosraven]

and here's the "us" you left on the counter.

[Chaosraven]

By revealing the other 2, rather than spend 3 days playing Tag with a protector, would they not be more likely to go for the other specials amongst the smaller pool of 14?

Sure i can see that...BUT...they will HAVE to start nibbling into the cabal at some point in the next 6 days....why not have them start worrying about it now? Any which way you can throw monkey wrenches and have the wolves think about more things than needed....is a good thing by my book.

Yeah, i'd probably work on the population of 14 initially, but you know in the days to come they will have to deal w/ an outted good 3 block. Thats just too damn powerful to ignore.

my point is with 2 cabal thrown in the mix, that's 2 less chances they hit the other specials.