Lynching Liaisons - The End

[El Guapo]

What if Bakhtosh is a wolf? What if he's the beserker and we kill him without a chance for him to go boom?

There's a 1 in 20 chance that he's the berzerker. There's a 4 in 20 chance that he could be the Seer, Hunter, Medium, or Mentalist.

There's also a 4 in 20 chance he's a wolf, period.

Right, but there's no difference between lynching a wolf now and lynching a wolf this evening, or tomorrow. Nor does it matter if he's the berserker wolf:

Beserker - responsible for turning in Night Kill before deadline if Alpha & Beta are dead. If lynched, can choose one player to kill before being lynched.

So there's no way to lynch him before he can go boom (the only way to avoid that, unless I'm missing something, is to peg him with the hunter's shot, but I don't think anyone's proposing using that yet).

Besides, this is a valuable opportunity for you to grow as a person by showing patience. Maybe go out back and paint a fence while pondering a koan.

[pr0ner]

[Qantaga]

There's also a 4 in 20 chance he's a wolf, period.

Yes, but the berzerker is the only one that hurts us by being a little patient. Any of the four good specials hurt us if we aren't patient.

[El Guapo]

Besides, since stessier decided to make him a "beserker" wolf instead of a berserker wolf I don't think we have to worry. I'm pretty sure all he can do is sell us some alternative clothing.

[El Guapo]

There's also a 4 in 20 chance he's a wolf, period.

Yes, but the berzerker is the only one that hurts us by being a little patient. Any of the four good specials hurt us if we aren't patient.

But there isn't any way that that hurts us, right? Unless I'm missing something it seems pretty clear that the "beserker" wolf only goes off upon lynch regardless of when we do it.

I gotta be honest that I'm actually enjoying pr0ner having an aneurysm over this. But that's neither here nor there.

[Qantaga]

Beserker - responsible for turning in Night Kill before deadline if Alpha & Beta are dead. If lynched, can choose one player to kill before being lynched.

Ah, so even the bezerker doesn't hurt us if we're patient, since he 'zerks after he's lynched.

[Qantaga]

But there isn't any way that that hurts us, right?

Yes, that is correct. My last was being composed while you were posting.

[El Guapo]

These are strong opinions to a question that does not have an absolute advantage on one side or the other.

Let's take a closer look.

Why are you pushing so hard on day one for revels? As long as we have a cabel member (that we know and trust) the wolves cannot spoof, so we really do want to protect our cabel members. Also, take all of your logic and add the following to it:
Tonight the hunter protect Lagom - wolves get to attack blindly.
Tonight the mentalist contacts Lagom - becomes proven and extends the power of team cabel (they can send him forth to present to us, and/or use him to avoid cabel spoofing by the wolves).
Tonight the seer will get a second scan.

Did Lagom really do that good of job of sorting out the wolves? I disagree with many of his choices, but am willing to let it run out a day. Between this, the "let's look at Grund" folks, and the "let's go after Redrun" folks I think the wolves are doing what they can to change the parameters - 'cause they really don't like where they are right now.

From catching up this post bugs me a little bit. Hard to see how you come away with "pushing so hard ... for revels [sic]" when Qantaga's bottom line is:

Cabal Reveal

The assertion that the other cabalists revealing themselves is only beneficial to the wolves is patently false. Both paths have advantages and disadvantages to each team.

- The cabalists remaining silent lessens the odds for both the wolves and the good specials to be successful in their goals.
- The cabalists revealing increases the risks and the rewards for both the wolves and the good specials.

Was redrun not really reading Qantaga's post or was he stirring up trouble?

[Newcastle]

OK LETS gives him some breathing room

 withdraw baktosh 
 

[Unagi]

The reason we wait is just to hear if he may claim Special. right?


ALSO, just gonna say, it would be highly comical for Grund to come in and lynch Bakhtosh before he has a chance to say something.

[redrun]

I'm all for accelerating the pace of the game and have no desire to let the game grind to a halt. However, it would be foolish to kill Bakhtosh without giving him a chance to share any information he might have.

+1

Pick a time limit, give him that long to respond. I'll throw out until Midnight today (Monday the 3rd) as a suggestion. We've been two weeks on day one, one more day is OK.

[El Guapo]

I'm all for accelerating the pace of the game and have no desire to let the game grind to a halt. However, it would be foolish to kill Bakhtosh without giving him a chance to share any information he might have.

+1

Pick a time limit, give him that long to respond. I'll throw out until Midnight today (Monday the 3rd) as a suggestion. We've been two weeks on day one, one more day is OK.

Yeah that's pretty much my thinking. To be sure as others have said given an absence of a week or whatever it is there's a fairly high chance that he doesn't speak up today. But given the cost/benefit analysis there's potentially a quite significant benefit to waiting and not much cost beyond pr0ner's sanity.

[Scoop20906]

That would have been funny!

[Scoop20906]

Lets give Bahk til Tuesday noon EST.

[Remus West]

OK LETS gives him some breathing room

 withdraw baktosh 
 

[Vorret]

OK LETS gives him some breathing room

 withdraw baktosh 
 

I don't get it either.

[bb2112]

Tonight should be fine, I would rather not wait until Tuesday at noon. If he does come back and claim special right before tje deadline, then that gives us (hopefully) enough time to wait for a counter or at least discuss what to do. By waiting until tomorrow, that limits us even more. But I do agree with Q and El G, waiting a little bit helps us more than it hurts.

[bb2112]

For what it is worth, LL should not place the last vote. Trig will want to disect the vote train and having LL on it tells us nothing. I will be willing to cap Backlash when it comes time.

[LordMortis]

For what it is worth, LL should not place the last vote. Trig will want to disect the vote train and having LL on it tells us nothing. I will be willing to cap Backlash when it comes time.

You and Remus both say this and yet if it's a foregone conclusion, does it matter who the last vote is? Are they more guilty or innocent that for making a vote on villager? Are they more praise worthy or suspect for making the final vote on a wolf?

[El Guapo]

For what it is worth, LL should not place the last vote. Trig will want to disect the vote train and having LL on it tells us nothing. I will be willing to cap Backlash when it comes time.

You and Remus both say this and yet if it's a foregone conclusion, does it matter who the last vote is? Are they more guilty or innocent that for making a vote on villager? Are they more praise worthy or suspect for making the final vote on a wolf?

I don't think it matters whether Lagom casts the final vote or not, as if the outcome is essentially predetermined (i.e. Bakhtosh is going to get lynched regardless) then it doesn't tell us much about whether the final voter is a wolf or not. But it seemed to be important to some people that Lagom specifically cast the final vote, which seems silly.

[Remus West]

I do not actually have a care if he is the last vote or not. I simply think it silly to wait for him if we are going to lynch Bahkotsh anyway.

I think removing the temptation was silly too so
 Bahktosh 
 


n-1.

If someone is that antsy to off him before he speaks then have at it.

[Unagi]

Tonight should be fine, I would rather not wait until Tuesday at noon. If he does come back and claim special right before tje deadline, then that gives us (hopefully) enough time to wait for a counter or at least discuss what to do. By waiting until tomorrow, that limits us even more. But I do agree with Q and El G, waiting a little bit helps us more than it hurts.

So, you are saying that there is some specific amount of time that is "not enought to recover from", and if we slip into that window, we would have been much better off just lynching a completely silent/abscent Bakhtosh? While part of what you are saying makes sense, you've taken it to a weird place.

And also, what's the point of saying "LL must not place the last vote, I will do that... as Trig will want to disect the whole thing". What's the point in that?
(what El Guapo just said...)

[Qantaga]

it seemed to be important to some people that Lagom specifically cast the final vote, which seems silly.

I think it is important for Lagom to cast the deciding vote only if Bakhtosh does not speak. A silent Bakhtosh, in the event that he possibly comes up villager instead of wolf, places an additional decision on the cabal. I think Lagom should have some control over the timing of the lynch of a silent Bakhtosh.

[Unagi]

it seemed to be important to some people that Lagom specifically cast the final vote, which seems silly.

I think it is important for Lagom to cast the deciding vote only if Bakhtosh does not speak. A silent Bakhtosh, in the event that he possibly comes up villager instead of wolf, places an additional decision on the cabal. I think Lagom should have some control over the timing of the lynch of a silent Bakhtosh.

Makes sense. I agree. It's the Cabal's world that gets screwed up by not waiting, so we can let LL tell us how he'd like for that to go down.

[bb2112]

All I'm saying on the time thing is that waiting until tonight is fine, but waiting for another 24 hours is too long in my opinion. I am also telling you that I am going to place the last vote tonight. If LL wants to do it, whatever. I think there is slightly (probably in reality, not much) more value inseeing who casts that vote than having LL do it. LL is pretty much a trusted so you learn absolutely nothing if he does it. Hell, maybe you learn nothing either way, but I know I would rather see someone else do it, when they do it, what they say when they do it, and see who that someone else is. If you don't care, then that is your option.

[Unagi]

All I'm saying on the time thing is that waiting until tonight is fine, but waiting for another 24 hours is too long in my opinion. I am also telling you that I am going to place the last vote tonight. If LL wants to do it, whatever. I think there is slightly (probably in reality, not much) more value inseeing who casts that vote than having LL do it. LL is pretty much a trusted so you learn absolutely nothing if he does it. Hell, maybe you learn nothing either way, but I know I would rather see someone else do it, when they do it, what they say when they do it, and see who that someone else is. If you don't care, then that is your option.

You would rather see someone else do it, and yet you are telling the entire world that you will do it later tonight.

The only thing that will do is keep that 'interesting party that may place the last vote' sit back and let you do it.

IMO, that's an odd think to forecast... doublely weird under the banner of 'for the data!'.

[Unagi]

it seemed to be important to some people that Lagom specifically cast the final vote, which seems silly.

I think it is important for Lagom to cast the deciding vote only if Bakhtosh does not speak. A silent Bakhtosh, in the event that he possibly comes up villager instead of wolf, places an additional decision on the cabal. I think Lagom should have some control over the timing of the lynch of a silent Bakhtosh.

Makes sense. I agree. It's the Cabal's world that gets screwed up by not waiting, so we can let LL tell us how he'd like for that to go down.

Actually, their hand is (IMO) totally tied. Cabal MUST scan Holman tonight, since the wolves would also be in the dark as to what role Bakhtosh might have, but they would have learned if Holman was something.

[theohall]

All I'm saying on the time thing is that waiting until tonight is fine, but waiting for another 24 hours is too long in my opinion. I am also telling you that I am going to place the last vote tonight. If LL wants to do it, whatever. I think there is slightly (probably in reality, not much) more value inseeing who casts that vote than having LL do it. LL is pretty much a trusted so you learn absolutely nothing if he does it. Hell, maybe you learn nothing either way, but I know I would rather see someone else do it, when they do it, what they say when they do it, and see who that someone else is. If you don't care, then that is your option.

Seeing as Lagom likely won't be posting until after midnight and the deadline is Thursday, waiting is a necessity, unless you are as antsy as pr0ner and absolutely must do it sooner - which is awfully wolfish, again, in relation to your posts.

Surprised the rest of you aren't seeing how wolfish bb2112 is behaving.

[Lassr]

For what it is worth, LL should not place the last vote. Trig will want to disect the vote train and having LL on it tells us nothing. I will be willing to cap Backlash when it comes time.

You and Remus both say this and yet if it's a foregone conclusion, does it matter who the last vote is? Are they more guilty or innocent that for making a vote on villager? Are they more praise worthy or suspect for making the final vote on a wolf?

I'm trying to figure this out also. If Bahktosh is a wolf are we saying those that didn't place the vote are possibly partners? I think we know after years of experience that wolves will often vote for wolves and kill them too.

Do we think when it comes time there are going to be players saying, "I'm not gonna kill, you kill him." I'm not gonna kill you kill him." "hey let's ask Lagom. Hey Lagom!"

I'm learning more from the ones that do not want to give Bahktosh enough time to come in and supply info to us. But I have a feeling if Bahktosh has not been paying attention that means he probably is not a special anyhow. Plain villager or a wolf letting his partners control the action.

[Lassr]

it seemed to be important to some people that Lagom specifically cast the final vote, which seems silly.

I think it is important for Lagom to cast the deciding vote only if Bakhtosh does not speak. A silent Bakhtosh, in the event that he possibly comes up villager instead of wolf, places an additional decision on the cabal. I think Lagom should have some control over the timing of the lynch of a silent Bakhtosh.

Makes sense. I agree. It's the Cabal's world that gets screwed up by not waiting, so we can let LL tell us how he'd like for that to go down.

Actually, their hand is (IMO) totally tied. Cabal MUST scan Holman tonight, since the wolves would also be in the dark as to what role Bakhtosh might have, but they would have learned if Holman was something.

Yes, I agree with this. If Holman was special then the wolves know. If Bahktosh is then we are both in the dark but we can learn his role later, the wolves cannot.

[RMC]

All I'm saying on the time thing is that waiting until tonight is fine, but waiting for another 24 hours is too long in my opinion. I am also telling you that I am going to place the last vote tonight. If LL wants to do it, whatever. I think there is slightly (probably in reality, not much) more value inseeing who casts that vote than having LL do it. LL is pretty much a trusted so you learn absolutely nothing if he does it. Hell, maybe you learn nothing either way, but I know I would rather see someone else do it, when they do it, what they say when they do it, and see who that someone else is. If you don't care, then that is your option.

You would rather see someone else do it, and yet you are telling the entire world that you will do it later tonight.

The only thing that will do is keep that 'interesting party that may place the last vote' sit back and let you do it.

IMO, that's an odd think to forecast... doublely weird under the banner of 'for the data!'.

Eh... I can see what he is saying. And who has not been in the spot, where you really don't want to cast the vote, as you feel the person might not be a wolf, but yet know the last vote is going to get cast on the individual.

<shrug> BB is a little more careful than I am about just blurting stuff out, but I can see where he is coming from.

[Qantaga]

Actually, their hand is (IMO) totally tied. Cabal MUST scan Holman tonight, since the wolves would also be in the dark as to what role Bakhtosh might have, but they would have learned if Holman was something.

You are correct.

Holman must be their scan tonight. The wolves' kill every night will be their priority, if and until the wolves kill a known role. So, it might not be an issue in the long run, but a silent (and innocent) Bakhtosh will be an irritant for the cabal that could grow more daunting as the game lengthens.

I'd prefer a vocal Bakhtosh. For a silent Bakhtosh, I'd like Lagom to have a say in his demise.

[Newcastle]

finish him!

 baktosh 
 

[Newcastle]

honestly, i doubt he's anything. If he doesnt care to check in for over a week (i pray its not RL occurences) I can only imagine the game is of no consequence to him.

/puts on fire retardant suit
/grabs some steaks to BBQ
/awaits the outrage

[Newcastle]

question for lagom - the good/maybe/evil list you drew up earlier, was that based on your own observations or of the three in the cabal talking together?

[Qantaga]

[El Guapo]

Well, at least I can now marginally raise the odds of Newcastle being a wolf.

[Remus West]

Well....that is quite the about face from giving him some breathing room.

[bb2112]

All I'm saying on the time thing is that waiting until tonight is fine, but waiting for another 24 hours is too long in my opinion. I am also telling you that I am going to place the last vote tonight. If LL wants to do it, whatever. I think there is slightly (probably in reality, not much) more value inseeing who casts that vote than having LL do it. LL is pretty much a trusted so you learn absolutely nothing if he does it. Hell, maybe you learn nothing either way, but I know I would rather see someone else do it, when they do it, what they say when they do it, and see who that someone else is. If you don't care, then that is your option.

You would rather see someone else do it, and yet you are telling the entire world that you will do it later tonight.

The only thing that will do is keep that 'interesting party that may place the last vote' sit back and let you do it.

IMO, that's an odd think to forecast... doublely weird under the banner of 'for the data!'.

So you are saying you are so sure of me that you don't care if I vote or even when I vote? And what if after I announce that I am going to place the last vote I don't? Or what if someone else jumps in front of me and votes before I get a chance to? Does this not yield something? At least something better than just having trusted LL place the last vote which yields nothing? Unagi, you are better than this.

[bb2112]

All I'm saying on the time thing is that waiting until tonight is fine, but waiting for another 24 hours is too long in my opinion. I am also telling you that I am going to place the last vote tonight. If LL wants to do it, whatever. I think there is slightly (probably in reality, not much) more value inseeing who casts that vote than having LL do it. LL is pretty much a trusted so you learn absolutely nothing if he does it. Hell, maybe you learn nothing either way, but I know I would rather see someone else do it, when they do it, what they say when they do it, and see who that someone else is. If you don't care, then that is your option.

Seeing as Lagom likely won't be posting until after midnight and the deadline is Thursday, waiting is a necessity, unless you are as antsy as pr0ner and absolutely must do it sooner - which is awfully wolfish, again, in relation to your posts.

Surprised the rest of you aren't seeing how wolfish bb2112 is behaving.

Theo, you are not better than this.