Lynching Liaisons - The End

[Qantaga]

While it is now rendered moot by Remus' claim, I do want to answer this:

If the Cabal reveal themselves now we gain 3 trusteds (4 if the mentalist also reveals). If the wolves start ripping through the Cabal we lose one trusted a night. Seer scans, we either replace that trusted, or get a wolf. With 19 players and 3 wolves, odds are more than likely we will get 3 more trusteds and not wolves. <snip> In all likely hood, by revealing now, we are trading one trusted for another when the wolves start killing them and the seer scans. This is not a net gain for the village.

Here's the essential component that you're missing. If the wolves start ripping through the Cabal, not only are they leaving the Seer alive, they are leaving the Hunter and the Medium alive, too.

It would be a net gain for the village because, after the wolves rip through the Cabal, the Seer would hold those scans and could come forward with them. Then, the Hunter could protect the Seer for one additional scan. Then, the next day, if/when the Seer dies, the Medium holds a seance for another scan. So, it's a net of +4 for the village in that (now hypothetical) case.

[RMC]

While it is now rendered moot by Remus' claim, I do want to answer this:

If the Cabal reveal themselves now we gain 3 trusteds (4 if the mentalist also reveals). If the wolves start ripping through the Cabal we lose one trusted a night. Seer scans, we either replace that trusted, or get a wolf. With 19 players and 3 wolves, odds are more than likely we will get 3 more trusteds and not wolves. <snip> In all likely hood, by revealing now, we are trading one trusted for another when the wolves start killing them and the seer scans. This is not a net gain for the village.

Here's the essential component that you're missing. If the wolves start ripping through the Cabal, not only are they leaving the Seer alive, they are leaving the Hunter and the Medium alive, too.

It would be a net gain for the village because, after the wolves rip through the Cabal, the Seer would hold those scans and could come forward with them. Then, the Hunter could protect the Seer for one additional scan. Then, the next day, if/when the Seer dies, the Medium holds a seance for another scan. So, it's a net of +4 for the village in that (now hypothetical) case.

Of course the wolves ignored LL last night to go after Newcastle and leave the cabal alone. <shrug> So who knows what they would do if they had 3 people that they knew were not the seer, I don't know, maybe not kill them. Who cares abot the cabal in the grand scheme of things right now, other than the 3 provens that is.

[El Guapo]

Ok, let me go through this myself to make sure that Remus isn't getting it wrong (or obfuscating anything on purpose). Assuming FTM that Remus is telling the truth, then the village looks like this, accounting for Newcastle's currently unknown role:

16 villagers, 3 wolves

Lagom Lite (Cabalist #1) (proven)
Cabalist #2 (provable)
Cabalist #3 (provable)
Medium (possibly dead - Newcastle) (provable)
Werewolf Hunter (possibly dead- Newcastle) (provable)
Mentalist (provable via cabalists)
Seer (Remus?)
Berserker Werewolf
Werewolf #2
Werewolf #3
Villager #1 (Chaosraven?)
Villager #2 (purge?)
Villager #3
Villager #4
Villager #5
Villager #6
Villager #7
Villager #8
Villager #9
Villager #10 (possibly dead - Newcastle)

Deceased: Holman (Sorceror), Bakhtosh (Werewolf) Newcastle (Villager #10?).

Unknown: Remus is seer or (let's assume) Berserker Werewolf; Newcastle was one of: Villager #10, Medium, or Werewolf Hunter (I'll take off seer as that would require idiot wolves as I mentioned earlier).

Can this be mechanically solved? Cabalists out themselves. Potentially the medium outs himself/herself today by seancing Newcastle. Werewolf Hunter (assume for the moment that it wasn't Newcastle) protects the seer, who does another scan. Mentalist is provable via the cabalists, either outs themselves tomorrow (after another contact) or is outed by the cabalists posthumously tomorrow).

So IF Remus is the seer and IF the hunter is still alive, things go roughly like this assuming we don't hit wolves with our lynches:

We lynch Villager #3 today (our specials being all proven / provable except for the seer, whom we are assuming ATM is Remus. We could get a wolf here, but let's say not for now) - 15 villagers, 3 wolves

Wolves kill Hunter (say they get lucky) - 14 villagers, 3 wolves

Seer scans Villager #4 and outs / proves him.

We lynch villager #5 - 13 villagers, 3 wolves

Wolves kill Remus / seer - 12 villagers, 3 wolves

We lynch villager #6 - 11 villagers, 3 wolves

Wolves kill Lagom (cabalist #1) - 10 villagers, 3 wolves

We lynch villager #7 - 9 villagers, 3 wolves

Wolves kill cabalist #2 - 8 villagers, 3 wolves

We lynch villager #8 - 7 villagers, 3 wolves

Wolves kill cabalist #3 - 6 villagers, 3 wolves

We lynch villager #9 - 5 villagers, 3 wolves.

At this point we are out of unknown villagers and so are left with proven specials, scanned/proven villagers, and wolves.

Wolves kill Mentalist - 4 villagers, 3 wolves

We lynch berserker wolf, who takes the Medium with him - 3 villagers, 2 wolves.

Wolves kill someone, 2 villagers, 2 wolves --> wolf victory.

SO assuming I have this right, and taking Remus at face value, we can't quite auto-win via revealing everyone, but we are close. The above is a worst case scenario, since we miss on lynching every single time plus the wolves kill the hunter tonight. Or almost a worst case scenario, as I suppose the true worst case is that Newcastle is the Hunter.

[triggercut]

I think the wolves thought or had reason to think that newcastle was the Seer.

Maybe he was.

Only explanation I can conceive of where they'd actually kill the guy who was going to be Day 2 Prime Suspect.

[El Guapo]

I think the wolves thought or had reason to think that newcastle was the Seer.

Maybe he was.

Only explanation I can conceive of where they'd actually kill the guy who was going to be Day 2 Prime Suspect.

I really doubt it. If the wolves know that Newcastle was the seer, then they know that the Medium and Hunter are both alive. They also know that the cabalists will get a deceased scan tonight. So if Newcastle was the seer, either we medium Newcastle now (and Remus is promptly shot by the Hunter), OR we wait until tomorrow, the cabalists reveal that Newcastle was the seer, and Remus is promptly shot / lynched.

Either way in that scenario they're giving up a wolf for no apparent gain.

If Remus is a wolf, he's doing this to draw out the seer.

[triggercut]

So, pik 'em:

Scoop
Vorret
LM
Remus
I kind of like LM or Vorret here, but can be talked into Remus or Scoop.

LM, Vorret, or Scoop, now.

FWIW, I'd be willing to vote for a seance on newcastle, as it does remove all doubt on Remus's claim.

Let me get this vote in:

 Scoop 
 

[triggercut]

I think the wolves thought or had reason to think that newcastle was the Seer.

Maybe he was.

Only explanation I can conceive of where they'd actually kill the guy who was going to be Day 2 Prime Suspect.

I really doubt it. If the wolves know that Newcastle was the seer, then they know that the Medium and Hunter are both alive. They also know that the cabalists will get a deceased scan tonight. So if Newcastle was the seer, either we medium Newcastle now (and Remus is promptly shot by the Hunter), OR we wait until tomorrow, the cabalists reveal that Newcastle was the seer, and Remus is promptly shot / lynched.

Either way in that scenario they're giving up a wolf for no apparent gain.

If Remus is a wolf, he's doing this to draw out the seer.

If Remus is a wolf and trying to draw out the Seer, that's another bad trade for wolves to make.

[RMC]

So, pik 'em:

Scoop
Vorret
LM
Remus
I kind of like LM or Vorret here, but can be talked into Remus or Scoop.

LM, Vorret, or Scoop, now.

FWIW, I'd be willing to vote for a seance on newcastle, as it does remove all doubt on Remus's claim.

Let me get this vote in:

 Scoop 
 

<shrug> Looks like we have the win then as long as everyone is telling the truth, and the protector is still around.

So  Scoop 
 


He actually followed me at one point this game, so that looks like a guilty move right there.

[El Guapo]

I think the wolves thought or had reason to think that newcastle was the Seer.

Maybe he was.

Only explanation I can conceive of where they'd actually kill the guy who was going to be Day 2 Prime Suspect.

I really doubt it. If the wolves know that Newcastle was the seer, then they know that the Medium and Hunter are both alive. They also know that the cabalists will get a deceased scan tonight. So if Newcastle was the seer, either we medium Newcastle now (and Remus is promptly shot by the Hunter), OR we wait until tomorrow, the cabalists reveal that Newcastle was the seer, and Remus is promptly shot / lynched.

Either way in that scenario they're giving up a wolf for no apparent gain.

If Remus is a wolf, he's doing this to draw out the seer.

If Remus is a wolf and trying to draw out the Seer, that's another bad trade for wolves to make.

Still makes more sense than Newcastle as the seer, as in that case the wolves are trading a wolf for nothing.

That trading RemusWolf for the Seer would be a bad trade suggests that Remus is the seer and telling the truth.

[pr0ner]

I've laid out reasons for voting for scoop. Let's do it.

 scoop20906 
 

[El Guapo]

<shrug> Looks like we have the win then as long as everyone is telling the truth, and the protector is still around.

That's not quite true, unless I messed something up in my analysis above. Even assuming that the protector is still alive (i.e. was not Newcastle) then we could still lose. We're just really close to winning.

[triggercut]

I think the wolves thought or had reason to think that newcastle was the Seer.

Maybe he was.

Only explanation I can conceive of where they'd actually kill the guy who was going to be Day 2 Prime Suspect.

I really doubt it. If the wolves know that Newcastle was the seer, then they know that the Medium and Hunter are both alive. They also know that the cabalists will get a deceased scan tonight. So if Newcastle was the seer, either we medium Newcastle now (and Remus is promptly shot by the Hunter), OR we wait until tomorrow, the cabalists reveal that Newcastle was the seer, and Remus is promptly shot / lynched.

Either way in that scenario they're giving up a wolf for no apparent gain.

If Remus is a wolf, he's doing this to draw out the seer.

If Remus is a wolf and trying to draw out the Seer, that's another bad trade for wolves to make.

Still makes more sense than Newcastle as the seer, as in that case the wolves are trading a wolf for nothing.

That trading RemusWolf for the Seer would be a bad trade suggests that Remus is the seer and telling the truth.

Emphasis mine there.

The one thing I will say...our wolves made a misplay (in my opinion) in targeting newcastle. If they made one mistake, this could be a second. Dunno.

What it does tell me though is that we face a choice.

If newcastle wasn't the Medium (meaning, the Medium is still alive out there), here's what I see:

1. Medium stays in the tall grass, possible target of wolves. The wolves may go after Remus next...but if they go hunting Cabal from Lagom's list of "Good" and the Medium is also in there somewhere, there's a chance they miss their target and hit Medium instead.

2. Medium comes out, verifies either by contacting Newc or by simple lack of counter-claim. Wolves now must figure out how to hunt amongst Seer, Medium and Cabal, while hopefully one of those is protected.

I'm not sure which is the better path.

[El Guapo]

 Seance Newcastle 
 


I'm inclined to think that we should do that now. Mainly I'd like to know now: (1) was Newcastle the Hunter (and so, do we have another protection or not); (2) was Newcastle the seer (unlikely, but we've got an auto-wolf if so). And another proven as well, which would help peg a wolf.

If people don't agree though I'm fine with Newcastle as the lynch.

[Remus West]

 withdraw Remus West 
 


So if I read this right you want a villager volunteer to be lynched today ? Or I read that wrong?

Not really. What I was saying is that if we are overly concern about the possibility of lynching the Berserker today then we should intentionally lynch a villager as it would then make our numbers a lock already. Personally, I'm more lynch your suspects and go from there but the option is there to do otherwise.

[El Guapo]

Whoops! I meant I'm fine with Scoop as the lynch. We should not vote for a deceased player as the lynch. Is that even a legal move?

[El Guapo]

 withdraw Remus West 
 


So if I read this right you want a villager volunteer to be lynched today ? Or I read that wrong?

Not really. What I was saying is that if we are overly concern about the possibility of lynching the Berserker today then we should intentionally lynch a villager as it would then make our numbers a lock already. Personally, I'm more lynch your suspects and go from there but the option is there to do otherwise.

But that's not quite true unless I messed something up in my analysis above (which is certainly possible).

[Remus West]

Speaking of mass outings. If the hunter which is provable or the medium which is provable come out and are not chaosraven or purge that would put the village at 9 knowns. 7 if they happen bet purge and chaosraven...

Which I mentioned in my initial post.

The point of using the Seance on Newcastle is that there is then no question and we can go from there. It also assures that I do not end up scanning the Medium in the night. Also why the Hunter, Cabal, and Mentalist should come out. Hitting any of the specials throws my numbers out of whack.

[Unagi]

This is all very odd.

 Seance Newcastle 
 

[Remus West]

 withdraw Remus West 
 


So if I read this right you want a villager volunteer to be lynched today ? Or I read that wrong?

Not really. What I was saying is that if we are overly concern about the possibility of lynching the Berserker today then we should intentionally lynch a villager as it would then make our numbers a lock already. Personally, I'm more lynch your suspects and go from there but the option is there to do otherwise.

But that's not quite true unless I messed something up in my analysis above (which is certainly possible).

We have 19 players right now.
Of those 19 we have the potential for the following "knowns"
3 Cabal
1 Mentalist - these 4 are certainly alive or we would have been told by Lagom
1 Hunter
1 Medium - these two are potentially deceased which could be an issue
1 Seer
2 Scans - if either scan is the Hunter or Medium then there is a problem

So, assuming that none of {Chaosraven, purge, Newcastle} are/were the Hunter or Medium we have 9 of those 19 players in the known pool.
If we shoot an unknown and lynch an unknown we will be at 9 of 17 even without tonight's scan. Subtract the Wolf kill of a known and add in the scan and tomorrow we are at 9 of 16. Suppose we lynch the Berserker then and we still maintain half the group in the known catagory which is enough to lock the game down.

BTW, can we not vote for people until everyone checks in and we deal with reveals or refusals and the seance question? I realize nobody is close to the needed number of votes for a lynch but lets keep it that way for now.

[triggercut]

Speaking of mass outings. If the hunter which is provable or the medium which is provable come out and are not chaosraven or purge that would put the village at 9 knowns. 7 if they happen bet purge and chaosraven...

Which I mentioned in my initial post.

The point of using the Seance on Newcastle is that there is then no question and we can go from there. It also assures that I do not end up scanning the Medium in the night. Also why the Hunter, Cabal, and Mentalist should come out. Hitting any of the specials throws my numbers out of whack.

Well.

That's a good point. On the rare chance you hit a special--especially one that can be proven--this plan gets a wrench in it.

[triggercut]

Fine,

 Withdraw Scoop 
 

[Remus West]

Speaking of mass outings. If the hunter which is provable or the medium which is provable come out and are not chaosraven or purge that would put the village at 9 knowns. 7 if they happen bet purge and chaosraven...

Which I mentioned in my initial post.

The point of using the Seance on Newcastle is that there is then no question and we can go from there. It also assures that I do not end up scanning the Medium in the night. Also why the Hunter, Cabal, and Mentalist should come out. Hitting any of the specials throws my numbers out of whack.

Well.

That's a good point. On the rare chance you hit a special--especially one that can be proven--this plan gets a wrench in it.

All of them except me are able to be proven either through numbers (the Cabal) or through their power use.

[El Guapo]

 withdraw Remus West 
 


So if I read this right you want a villager volunteer to be lynched today ? Or I read that wrong?

Not really. What I was saying is that if we are overly concern about the possibility of lynching the Berserker today then we should intentionally lynch a villager as it would then make our numbers a lock already. Personally, I'm more lynch your suspects and go from there but the option is there to do otherwise.

But that's not quite true unless I messed something up in my analysis above (which is certainly possible).

We have 19 players right now.
Of those 19 we have the potential for the following "knowns"
3 Cabal
1 Mentalist - these 4 are certainly alive or we would have been told by Lagom
1 Hunter
1 Medium - these two are potentially deceased which could be an issue
1 Seer
2 Scans - if either scan is the Hunter or Medium then there is a problem

So, assuming that none of {Chaosraven, purge, Newcastle} are/were the Hunter or Medium we have 9 of those 19 players in the known pool.
If we shoot an unknown and lynch an unknown we will be at 9 of 17 even without tonight's scan. Subtract the Wolf kill of a known and add in the scan and tomorrow we are at 9 of 16. Suppose we lynch the Berserker then and we still maintain half the group in the known catagory which is enough to lock the game down.

BTW, can we not vote for people until everyone checks in and we deal with reveals or refusals and the seance question? I realize nobody is close to the needed number of votes for a lynch but lets keep it that way for now.

9 knowns, 3 wolves, 7 unknowns.

shoot & lynch unknown - 9 knowns, 3 wolves, 5 unknowns.
Wolves kill known - 8 knowns, 3 wolves, 5 unknowns
Seer scans an unknown - 9 knowns, 3 wolves, 4 unknowns.
Wolves kill seer - 7 knowns, 3 wolves, 4 unknowns.
Village kills berserker, who kills known - 6 knowns, 2 wolves, 4 unknowns.
Wolves kill known - 5 knowns, 2 wolves, 4 unknowns.
Village kills unknown - 5 knowns, 2 wolves, 3 unknowns.
Wolves kill known - 4 knowns, 2 wolves, 3 unknowns
Village kills unknown - 4 knowns, 2 wolves, 2 unknowns.
Wolves kill known - 3 knowns, 2 wolves, 2 unknowns.
Village kills unknown - 3 knowns, 2 wolves, 1 unknown
Wolves kill known - 2 knowns, 2 wolves, 1 unknown
Village kills unknown - 2 knowns, 2 wolves, 0 unknown - wolf victory.

Yes the proven specials would have control over the lynch at 9 of 17, BUT if they go on a bad run and hit only unknown villagers (and not wolves) then the village loses. So we would have a lock on voting, but not on winning at that point. Again, unless I'm missing something.

[LordMortis]

It also assures that I do not end up scanning the Medium in the night. Also why the Hunter, Cabal, and Mentalist should come out. Hitting any of the specials throws my numbers out of whack.

That's about the only reason I see for seancing today.

BTW, can we not vote for people until everyone checks in and we deal with reveals or refusals and the seance question? I realize nobody is close to the needed number of votes for a lynch but lets keep it that way for now.

I see no reason to pull my vote. It doesn't change the discussion and it doesn't put someone at risk for lynching unless multiple go all Newcastle.

[Remus West]

I see your point. We would end up 1 short of complete lock on the game if we do not shoot the Berserker.

[triggercut]

It also assures that I do not end up scanning the Medium in the night. Also why the Hunter, Cabal, and Mentalist should come out. Hitting any of the specials throws my numbers out of whack.

That's about the only reason I see for seancing today.

It's a pretty compelling reason, no?

[Lagom Lite]

 withdraw Remus West 
 


I don't think we should seance Newcastle, we'll learn his role soon enough. Better to save the seance for Remus.

[LordMortis]

It also assures that I do not end up scanning the Medium in the night. Also why the Hunter, Cabal, and Mentalist should come out. Hitting any of the specials throws my numbers out of whack.

That's about the only reason I see for seancing today.

It's a pretty compelling reason, no?

It is compelling. I don't know if it's the right end all be all of reasons but it is compelling.

[Lagom Lite]

It also assures that I do not end up scanning the Medium in the night. Also why the Hunter, Cabal, and Mentalist should come out. Hitting any of the specials throws my numbers out of whack.

That's about the only reason I see for seancing today.

It's a pretty compelling reason, no?

It is compelling. I don't know if it's the right end all be all of reasons but it is compelling.

Why couldn't the Medium simply step forward and say "Hey guys, I'm the Medium"? Has the same effect, and saves his seance.

[triggercut]

It also assures that I do not end up scanning the Medium in the night. Also why the Hunter, Cabal, and Mentalist should come out. Hitting any of the specials throws my numbers out of whack.

That's about the only reason I see for seancing today.

It's a pretty compelling reason, no?

It is compelling. I don't know if it's the right end all be all of reasons but it is compelling.

Why couldn't the Medium simply step forward and say "Hey guys, I'm the Medium"? Has the same effect, and saves his seance.

Hey guys, I'm the Medium.

How's that?

[Vorret]

Not bad but a crystal ball would have added some interesting effects

[El Guapo]

Not bad but a crystal ball would have added some interesting effects

How's this?

[triggercut]

Not bad but a crystal ball would have added some interesting effects

How's this?

I hate my hair in that picture.

[LordMortis]

It also assures that I do not end up scanning the Medium in the night. Also why the Hunter, Cabal, and Mentalist should come out. Hitting any of the specials throws my numbers out of whack.

That's about the only reason I see for seancing today.

It's a pretty compelling reason, no?

It is compelling. I don't know if it's the right end all be all of reasons but it is compelling.

Why couldn't the Medium simply step forward and say "Hey guys, I'm the Medium"? Has the same effect, and saves his seance.

Hey guys, I'm the Medium.

How's that?

All good points. I like it. Where ever my hot to cold trig??? list is. He can be removed contingent on 1) newcastle not being the medium and 2) no other medium standing forward.

[Lassr]

 withdraw Remus West 
 


I don't think we should seance Newcastle, we'll learn his role soon enough. Better to save the seance for Remus.

The one problem I see with the seance now is what if Newcastle was the hunter. Then Remus gets offed tonight and no seance left for him...

[triggercut]

It also assures that I do not end up scanning the Medium in the night. Also why the Hunter, Cabal, and Mentalist should come out. Hitting any of the specials throws my numbers out of whack.

That's about the only reason I see for seancing today.

It's a pretty compelling reason, no?

It is compelling. I don't know if it's the right end all be all of reasons but it is compelling.

Why couldn't the Medium simply step forward and say "Hey guys, I'm the Medium"? Has the same effect, and saves his seance.

Hey guys, I'm the Medium.

How's that?

All good points. I like it. Where ever my hot to cold trig??? list is. He can be removed contingent on 1) newcastle not being the medium and 2) no other medium standing forward.

or 3) Me seancing someone, which would require the complicit treachery of stessier to pull off.

[Lassr]

and it looks like trig has come out as the medium...or was that a joke?

[El Guapo]

It also assures that I do not end up scanning the Medium in the night. Also why the Hunter, Cabal, and Mentalist should come out. Hitting any of the specials throws my numbers out of whack.

That's about the only reason I see for seancing today.

It's a pretty compelling reason, no?

It is compelling. I don't know if it's the right end all be all of reasons but it is compelling.

Why couldn't the Medium simply step forward and say "Hey guys, I'm the Medium"? Has the same effect, and saves his seance.

Hey guys, I'm the Medium.

How's that?

Actually, we could have everyone announce their role. Wolves would basically have to say that they're villagers, right? Otherwise any faked role would be immediately countered, exposing the wolf. Then Remus could be sure that he wouldn't hit a special with his scan (guaranteeing a wolf or a villager).

The wolves would then get to pick killing either the Hunter or the Medium (assuming Newcastle was neither), with the Hunter protecting the Seer. If they kill the Hunter, then after they kill the Seer (remus) the next day, Remus scans on his deathbed and then the Medium contacts Remus and gets a second scan result out of him.

Seems like a good plan.

[El Guapo]

 Withdraw Seance Newcastle 
 


Pending discussion of my proposal.

[LordMortis]

 withdraw Remus West 
 


I don't think we should seance Newcastle, we'll learn his role soon enough. Better to save the seance for Remus.

The one problem I see with the seance now is what if Newcastle was the hunter. Then Remus gets offed tonight and no seance left for him...

I see no point at all in seancing now. 1) Remus dies tonight and trig gets his last scan. 2) Trig dies tonight and we get Remus' last scan. 3) One is wolf and is either outed by objection today or by discovering who newcastle is tomorrow. 4) Both are wolves and are outed by being contested and/or newcastles role discovery tomorrow.

Right now the wolves have one good play but I'm not going to say what it is.

I will say that a mass outing and shot from the hunter (if alive) sound really good right now. I also think the hunter (if alive) coming out right now is interesting. Would the wolves kill the hunter tonight or the seer?