Lynching Liaisons - The End

[triggercut]

and it looks like trig has come out as the medium...or was that a joke?

Not a joke.

For the exact reason you mention--Newcastle as Hunter--I elected to come forward.

If my seance is held, it forces the wolves to either kill me today leaving Remus alive for another scan, or we get to seance a dead Remus tomorrow.

For that reason...

Please remove or cancel your seance votes if you have them active!

If we decide today that it serves the village best by me seancing newcastle, everyone is welcome to switch back at that time.

I think that seance serves the wolves better than us, though, and would hate to see them jump that vote and force the issue.

[triggercut]

Pfft. Ignore that.

Unless I vote for the seance on that player, it doesn't happen.

Go crazy. Vote to your heart's content.

[Unagi]

 Seance no one at this time... 
 


I think that in order fo a seance to take place:

• A majority of players needs to have a "seance vote" placed on one player.
• and (this is key) The Medium needs to be one of those players.

So, there isn't any risk of an accidental seance that isn't Medium approved.

[Unagi]

heh, nevermind.

[Vorret]

So I can leave it on? I kinda like it, it's all mysterious.

[El Guapo]

 Seance El Guapo 
 

[redrun]

 Withdraw Triggercut 
 

[purge]

Frankly this feels wrong. Remuswolf wouldn't be so stupid as to spoof a role that could be disproven, and since LL clearly is alive and well, at best guess NC could have been 1 of 3 cabal. IIRC LL confirmed he was not, do that leaves one person to spoof as the other two were evil.

I'm ok with voting, but the seance should be saved. The cabal will be around to answer the NC issue. I don't trust Remus. The only good Remus is a dead one.

If the seer is not remus then they are likely alive. this simplifies their job. if Remuswolf manages to kill one player in a false lynch, the game is big enough, and they are at such a disadvantage that we can afford it for the seer to scan tonight and possibly even tomorrow night before revealing.

If remus is the seer, we can look forward to him leading us to failure.

Sent from my Nokia 920

[Scoop20906]

I don't believe trig is the medium. My vote stays there.

I'm a villager.

I think if I was a wolf I'd be tempted to go Hail Mary at this point.

[triggercut]

I don't believe trig is the medium. My vote stays there.

I'm a villager.

I think if I was a wolf I'd be tempted to go Hail Mary at this point.

Yes, and the best way to do that is to claim a role that is easily prove-able.

Want to try again, Wolfenshmidt?

[tru1cy]

I will state again mass outing sucks but I see the village is moving ahead with this plan nonetheless..

Sheesh how many specials have come out?

[RMC]

I don't believe trig is the medium. My vote stays there.

I'm a villager.

I think if I was a wolf I'd be tempted to go Hail Mary at this point.

I think the wolves have to go hail mary at this point. But I can't fathom how Remus could work this into anything other than him being the seer... At best we lynch someone now, and then question the people he put the 'proven' label on but we discover if the seer is dead this night regardless... So if he is not the seer, and NC was, it is a dumb play. If the seer is still alive, this is a dumb play, unless he is the seer.

I guess we hope NC was not the protector, so we get at least one more night, and we start playing the who did the protector protect game...

[triggercut]

I will state again mass outing sucks but I see the village is moving ahead with this plan nonetheless..

Sheesh how many specials have come out?

A whole bunch since the last time you posted.

1.

Me.

And I came out because we were moving towards that eventuality anyway, and there were very good reasons to do so.

[Lassr]

I don't believe trig is the medium. My vote stays there.

I'm a villager.

I think if I was a wolf I'd be tempted to go Hail Mary at this point.

WTFBBQ!

Why would a wolf fake a provable role this early in the game?
He will have to have a seance very soon unless he is killed by the wolves. Either way proves him.

[triggercut]

At any rate, this is silliness.

If Remus is spoofing the Seer, it'll be revealed shortly. I would imagine full well that the Cabal will scan Newcastle tonight, and if Newc comes up Seer, then we know Remus is lying. If he doesn't, then we know the Seer is alive, and we wonder why the heck he's being so quiet when revealing himself could've iced the game for us.

If I'm not the Medium, then someone else will either counter claim me. I welcome that, because it'll end the game as well when one of us can prove who we are.

Spoofing a role at this point is going to be a very short-lived, and very losing strategy that only quickens the end of the game. It's not a "Hail Mary" at all. With the Cabal out there, it's suicide for them.

[Grundbegriff]

 withdraw triggercut 
 

Fascinating. Watch-and-waiting.

[bb2112]

Wow! Once again a lot to take in. I 100% agree we should save the seance for Remus for when he is dead.

[bb2112]

While it is now rendered moot by Remus' claim, I do want to answer this:

If the Cabal reveal themselves now we gain 3 trusteds (4 if the mentalist also reveals). If the wolves start ripping through the Cabal we lose one trusted a night. Seer scans, we either replace that trusted, or get a wolf. With 19 players and 3 wolves, odds are more than likely we will get 3 more trusteds and not wolves. <snip> In all likely hood, by revealing now, we are trading one trusted for another when the wolves start killing them and the seer scans. This is not a net gain for the village.

Here's the essential component that you're missing. If the wolves start ripping through the Cabal, not only are they leaving the Seer alive, they are leaving the Hunter and the Medium alive, too.

It would be a net gain for the village because, after the wolves rip through the Cabal, the Seer would hold those scans and could come forward with them. Then, the Hunter could protect the Seer for one additional scan. Then, the next day, if/when the Seer dies, the Medium holds a seance for another scan. So, it's a net of +4 for the village in that (now hypothetical) case.

You are wrong. You can't see it and I can't convince you. Time to move on.

[Lagom Lite]

Well I'm not going to out anyone - they can do that themselves if they wish - but I'll verify any outings of course.

I haven't thought through what I think of these mass-outings Remus is suggesting. At the back of my head is a gnawing suspicion that Newcastle was the Seer, and Remuswolf is trying to get every special in the village outed. If that's the case, the best thing to do would be to lynch someone on my shit list (e.g. Scoop) until we can verify tonight that Newcastle wasn't the Seer.

The drawback to THAT is that Remus won't have a clear shot at scanning since he won't know which players to avoid, if he's indeed telling the truth about him being the Seer.

But you know, I'm kind of feeling sorry for the wolves... They've had awful luck and if this is a ploy to get every special outed, then maybe we should give it to them...

I need to ponder this a little, I think.

[Qantaga]

You are wrong.

No, I'm not.

[bb2112]

Speaking of mass outings. If the hunter which is provable or the medium which is provable come out and are not chaosraven or purge that would put the village at 9 knowns. 7 if they happen bet purge and chaosraven...

Hmmm, LM makes a rare lucid point. There could be an overlap of scans by the seer and trusteds who come out, thus lowering our lock number. Also, NC could have been a trusted which also lowers our lock number. So we could have a maximum of 9 players known with reveals and scans and a minimum of 6. Hardly a game lock situation if we are on the low side, but still pretty good.

[Remus West]

Speaking of mass outings. If the hunter which is provable or the medium which is provable come out and are not chaosraven or purge that would put the village at 9 knowns. 7 if they happen bet purge and chaosraven...

Hmmm, LM makes a rare lucid point. There could be an overlap of scans by the seer and trusteds who come out, thus lowering our lock number. Also, NC could have been a trusted which also lowers our lock number. So we could have a maximum of 9 players known with reveals and scans and a minimum of 6. Hardly a game lock situation if we are on the low side, but still pretty good.

Did you not bother to read the whole post when I came forward? I already "made" that point.

[bb2112]

I don't believe trig is the medium. My vote stays there.

I'm a villager.

I think if I was a wolf I'd be tempted to go Hail Mary at this point.

Yes, and the best way to do that is to claim a role that is easily prove-able.

Want to try again, Wolfenshmidt?

Yeah, that doesn't make sense. I could vote for Scoop or Vorret today, but I prefer Scoop.

[triggercut]

I don't believe trig is the medium. My vote stays there.

I'm a villager.

I think if I was a wolf I'd be tempted to go Hail Mary at this point.

Yes, and the best way to do that is to claim a role that is easily prove-able.

Want to try again, Wolfenshmidt?

Yeah, that doesn't make sense. I could vote for Scoop or Vorret today, but I prefer Scoop.

He says he's a villager, though!

[bb2112]

I don't believe trig is the medium. My vote stays there.

I'm a villager.

I think if I was a wolf I'd be tempted to go Hail Mary at this point.

Yes, and the best way to do that is to claim a role that is easily prove-able.

Want to try again, Wolfenshmidt?

Yeah, that doesn't make sense. I could vote for Scoop or Vorret today, but I prefer Scoop.

He says he's a villager, though!

Oh, then it must be true.

[Scoop20906]

I actually am a villager but misses don't seem a big deal at this point.

If no one has noticed Unagi hasn't been screaming for my blood so that should tell you something there.

[bb2112]

Speaking of mass outings. If the hunter which is provable or the medium which is provable come out and are not chaosraven or purge that would put the village at 9 knowns. 7 if they happen bet purge and chaosraven...

Hmmm, LM makes a rare lucid point. There could be an overlap of scans by the seer and trusteds who come out, thus lowering our lock number. Also, NC could have been a trusted which also lowers our lock number. So we could have a maximum of 9 players known with reveals and scans and a minimum of 6. Hardly a game lock situation if we are on the low side, but still pretty good.

Did you not bother to read the whole post when I came forward? I already "made" that point.

Ha, yeah, but LM got it. That is worthy of reposting.

[Vorret]

I'm also a villager but if you want to lynch (or scan one) hit me, I've come up a lot in recent discussions so I'd be happy to sacrifice myself for the good of the village.

[Remus West]

It only makes sense to intentionally off a villager if we are going to do the Hunter shot and mass outing today. Otherwise we need to continue trying to target wolves.

Interesting that some seem eager to offer up their "villager" status and offer to be the lynch. Maybe you guys do not realize that works against the village right now. If we do not do the mass outing then you are narrowing the field for the wolves if you are being honest.

[theohall]

Just got caught up on the Remus West reveal.

 withdraw Chaosraven 
 


Going back to read from that point forward.

[theohall]

Speaking of mass outings. If the hunter which is provable or the medium which is provable come out and are not chaosraven or purge that would put the village at 9 knowns. 7 if they happen bet purge and chaosraven...

So you completely discount the Seer/Remus West naming them as villagers? Seems odd to me being somewhat certain in your questioning.

Still reading.

[theohall]

Speaking of mass outings. If the hunter which is provable or the medium which is provable come out and are not chaosraven or purge that would put the village at 9 knowns. 7 if they happen bet purge and chaosraven...

Which I mentioned in my initial post.

The point of using the Seance on Newcastle is that there is then no question and we can go from there. It also assures that I do not end up scanning the Medium in the night. Also why the Hunter, Cabal, and Mentalist should come out. Hitting any of the specials throws my numbers out of whack.

Well.

That's a good point. On the rare chance you hit a special--especially one that can be proven--this plan gets a wrench in it.

This has probably been said already, but I am still reading. A mass outing also gives the wolves a better chance at finding the Seer if Remus West is not telling the truth. Considering the wolves are down one of their own AND the sorceror, it is a gamble I can see the remaining three wolves taking. I don't think it is a gamble Remus West would take, though.

[theohall]

Speaking of mass outings. If the hunter which is provable or the medium which is provable come out and are not chaosraven or purge that would put the village at 9 knowns. 7 if they happen bet purge and chaosraven...

Which I mentioned in my initial post.

The point of using the Seance on Newcastle is that there is then no question and we can go from there. It also assures that I do not end up scanning the Medium in the night. Also why the Hunter, Cabal, and Mentalist should come out. Hitting any of the specials throws my numbers out of whack.

Well.

That's a good point. On the rare chance you hit a special--especially one that can be proven--this plan gets a wrench in it.

All of them except me are able to be proven either through numbers (the Cabal) or through their power use.

What? You are provable by scanning Lagom Lite. Right??? Or either of the other Cabal members? Or the Mentalist? Any of those powers could confirm your role. But you supposedly are not provable?????? BS flag raised!!!

[theohall]

Frankly this feels wrong. Remuswolf wouldn't be so stupid as to spoof a role that could be disproven, and since LL clearly is alive and well, at best guess NC could have been 1 of 3 cabal. IIRC LL confirmed he was not, do that leaves one person to spoof as the other two were evil.

I'm ok with voting, but the seance should be saved. The cabal will be around to answer the NC issue. I don't trust Remus. The only good Remus is a dead one.

If the seer is not remus then they are likely alive. this simplifies their job. if Remuswolf manages to kill one player in a false lynch, the game is big enough, and they are at such a disadvantage that we can afford it for the seer to scan tonight and possibly even tomorrow night before revealing.

If remus is the seer, we can look forward to him leading us to failure.

Sent from my Nokia 920

Wolves get the roles of dead people. It makes spoofing a bit easier than usual.

[theohall]

At any rate, this is silliness.

If Remus is spoofing the Seer, it'll be revealed shortly. I would imagine full well that the Cabal will scan Newcastle tonight, and if Newc comes up Seer, then we know Remus is lying. If he doesn't, then we know the Seer is alive, and we wonder why the heck he's being so quiet when revealing himself could've iced the game for us.

If I'm not the Medium, then someone else will either counter claim me. I welcome that, because it'll end the game as well when one of us can prove who we are.

Spoofing a role at this point is going to be a very short-lived, and very losing strategy that only quickens the end of the game. It's not a "Hail Mary" at all. With the Cabal out there, it's suicide for them.

This is the big flaw in all of this. Remus West has claimed Seer. Now, he can say he scanned a) triggercut - and he is the Medium or b) Lagom Lite - and he is Cabal. The problem with mass outing is it makes faking the Seer immensely simple - he just scans those who have outed and "verifies" their claim. I know, trig can be verified via mod when the seance happens.

There are complexities being created here from these two and their reveals. Are they faking, hoping we buy it and wait it out to buy them time, or are they serious about their claims? I don't know. I doubt Remus and trig are faking.

Right now, my #1 suspect is  Lord Mortis 
 
. He keeps pointing at what I believe to be good guys and was doing the same on the prior day.

IMO, we vote someone off, let the Cabal scan Newcastle, and move forward tomorrow. My vote is cast. If LM suddenly claims a) a special or b) ezmating - my vote is not moving. Me buying an ezmate pulled my vote off a wolf last game whom I would have vehemently argued to lynch otherwise.

[theohall]

Last one for tonight...

I am very interested in hearing Grundbegriff's take on this. His poetry has been very astute, IMO.

[theohall]

I thought that was the last one...

Thinking about the RW/Seer/mass outing/provable thing....

He is right. Proving his role is darn near impossible unless he scans someone whose role he does not know via someone else and then reveals that role.

It make mass outing sound like the right thing to do, so he can scan the remainder for wolves. The danger is if he is faking the Seer, which I don't believe, since we will find out tomorrow about Newcastle.

IMO, Newcastle was a villager intentionally drawing fire by hinting at roles he was not. This, IMO, is what all villagers should do without being completely overt. Heck, RW thought I was the Seer in the pirate game (this was intentional on my part), but the village, unfortunately, lynched me before the wolves could kill me.

[Remus West]

I thought that was the last one...

Thinking about the RW/Seer/mass outing/provable thing....

He is right. Proving his role is darn near impossible unless he scans someone whose role he does not know via someone else and then reveals that role.

It make mass outing sound like the right thing to do, so he can scan the remainder for wolves. The danger is if he is faking the Seer, which I don't believe, since we will find out tomorrow about Newcastle.

IMO, Newcastle was a villager intentionally drawing fire by hinting at roles he was not. This, IMO, is what all villagers should do without being completely overt. Heck, RW thought I was the Seer in the pirate game (this was intentional on my part), but the village, unfortunately, lynched me before the wolves could kill me.

Go check my rules again. I don't get told anyone's role except the Berserker wolf. Everyone else shows as "Villager" or "Werewolf". I can not prove myself by naming a role as I am not given the player's role. Sorry. As I said, I am the only unprovable role.

[triggercut]

Last one for tonight...

I am very interested in hearing Grundbegriff's take on this. His poetry has been very astute, IMO.

Yeah, his one and only accuse in the game was spot on.

[theohall]

I thought that was the last one...

Thinking about the RW/Seer/mass outing/provable thing....

He is right. Proving his role is darn near impossible unless he scans someone whose role he does not know via someone else and then reveals that role.

It make mass outing sound like the right thing to do, so he can scan the remainder for wolves. The danger is if he is faking the Seer, which I don't believe, since we will find out tomorrow about Newcastle.

IMO, Newcastle was a villager intentionally drawing fire by hinting at roles he was not. This, IMO, is what all villagers should do without being completely overt. Heck, RW thought I was the Seer in the pirate game (this was intentional on my part), but the village, unfortunately, lynched me before the wolves could kill me.

Go check my rules again. I don't get told anyone's role except the Berserker wolf. Everyone else shows as "Villager" or "Werewolf". I can not prove myself by naming a role as I am not given the player's role. Sorry. As I said, I am the only unprovable role.

Point taken. FYI, I don't believe you are faking as Seer.