Lynching Liaisons - The End

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 3:13 am

Vorret is very likely not a wolf. Remus West kept pushing at him being a wolf while Vorret was trying to get us to lynch Remus. I would move him to the good guy list and seriously question those calling him a bad guy.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 3:25 am

Unagi, cleared by Wolf West, voted for bb2112 early.
Chaosraven, cleared by Wolf West, voted for bb2112 early.
Lassr, conveniently left himself out of the early vote list for bb2112.

Very convenient that Lassr did not mention any of them when recording

After the Hunter shoots Remus West, my votes are going towards one of those three.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 3:26 am

theohall wrote:Unagi, cleared by Wolf West, voted for bb2112 early.
Chaosraven, cleared by Wolf West, voted for bb2112 early.
Lassr, conveniently left himself out of the early vote list for bb2112.

edit:
Very convenient that Lassr did not mention any of them when reviewing the bb2112 lynch.[/]

After the Hunter shoots Remus West, my votes are going towards one of those three.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 3:30 am

The other guy Lassr did not mention who was really on the bb2112 train, Lord Mortis. He has been doing the same as Remus West in pointing his finger at Vorret.

So those are my 4 wolf candidates after Remus West dies.

Unagi
Chaosraven
Lassr
Lord Mortis

I would not be surprised to find the other two wolves there.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 3:32 am

theohall wrote:The other guy Lassr did not mention who was really on the bb2112 train, Lord Mortis. He has been doing the same as Remus West in pointing his finger at Vorret.

So those are my 4 wolf candidates after Remus West dies.

Unagi
Chaosraven
Lassr
Lord Mortis

I would not be surprised to find the other two wolves there.

And given that list, Remus West is likely the Berzerker, which is why they had him faking the Seer role.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 3:41 am

If it weren't for those meddling kids, Remus West would have gotten away with it.

Lagom Lite · Post by **Lagom Lite** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 9:07 am

One thing I've noticed when playing these games is that generally, villagers think up much more elaborate conspiracy theories than the wolves do. So I'm going to Occam's Razor this scenario a bit:

Remus is probably the Berzerker wolf, and should be shot. There's a chance the wolves were clever and sent forward a non-zerker, but only a chance.

Why did Remus step forward? The wolves must have felt in dire straits. The only reason I can think of is that my list was actually frighteningly accurate, and they needed to distract us from it.

So maybe we should lynch Chaosraven. Although I'm still fine with Grundbegriff, because the above plays are just the kind of stuff he's done before as a wolf. The fact that he's pointed out - twice! - that "he wouldn't come up with a fool plan like that" is precisely what I'd expect him to say.

Lagom Lite · Post by **Lagom Lite** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 9:23 am

The Early List:

Maybe, baby:
purge
LordMortis
Vorret
triggercut
Newcastle

Bad guys:
Scoop20906
Chaosraven
Bakhtosh
El Guapo

The Day 2 List:

BAD GUYS?
Remus West
triggercut
El Guapo
purge
LordMortis
Vorret
Scoop20906
Chaosraven

(pr0ner was added later)

It stands to reason that Scoop, Chaosraven, purge, LordMortis and/or Vorret are wolves, with an emphasis on Scoop and Chaosraven.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 9:41 am

Lassr wrote:BB had 4 votes on him when he last spoke then these 6 voted before he was able to speak again.
pr0ner, Qantaga, redrun, El Guapo, Lagom Lite, Remus West

all on that list are identified except Pr0ner...with Remus being a wolf.

I was surprised by this list as well but you'd have thought he saw the potential coming.

Lassr wrote:and if it is the ole switcharoo then shoot Grund and lynch Remus. I wouldn't put it past these two to have the non zerker come out knowing Grund will probably get lynched eventually then he could go boom.

I don't see any gained a switcharoo, but then it's not my choice to make, much like scanning bb2112 over Q.

theohall wrote:Because Remus West lynched him at N-1, just like he lynched El Guapo.

There is a possibility El Guapo was the Hunter... assuming the Hunter has not shot Remus West already. (Still reading to catch up)

I meant before N-1. I mean during his exchanges as he was taking on more and more heat.

Also, while I don't think he should have, El Guapo did speak up. I don't think he was the hunter.

theohall wrote:Ummmm....what?? The wolves always win in your two scenarios. So what the heck are you saying about this odd even thing?

I don't think I have it in me to go over it again.

theohall wrote:The other guy Lassr did not mention who was really on the bb2112 train, Lord Mortis. He has been doing the same as Remus West in pointing his finger at Vorret.

So those are my 4 wolf candidates after Remus West dies.

Unagi
Chaosraven
Lassr
Lord Mortis

I would not be surprised to find the other two wolves there.

I wouldn't be surprised to find one. I would be surprised if all three wolves were on bb2112. Especially because Scoop (and someone else but I don't remember who) was closer when his train got rolling. The end of the chain exemplifies how easy it was get him to n-1 without wolves.

Rereading had some benefits. Go figure.

Lagom Lite wrote:One thing I've noticed when playing these games is that generally, villagers think up much more elaborate conspiracy theories than the wolves do. So I'm going to Occam's Razor this scenario a bit:

Remus is probably the Berzerker wolf, and should be shot. There's a chance the wolves were clever and sent forward a non-zerker, but only a chance.

Why did Remus step forward? The wolves must have felt in dire straits. The only reason I can think of is that my list was actually frighteningly accurate, and they needed to distract us from it.

So maybe we should lynch Chaosraven. Although I'm still fine with Grundbegriff, because the above plays are just the kind of stuff he's done before as a wolf. The fact that he's pointed out - twice! - that "he wouldn't come up with a fool plan like that" is precisely what I'd expect him to say.

bb2112 "liked your list". I don't know if it was from scanned innocents or scanned evils, though I do believe he concurred with you after Remus claimed seer.

Lagom Lite wrote:It stands to reason that Scoop, Chaosraven, purge, LordMortis and/or Vorret are wolves, with an emphasis on Scoop and Chaosraven.

Don't know if it stands to reason but as good a list as any and better than many.

Still waiting on chaosraven before I place a vote remus. He gets until Monday from me at that point LL and Theos lists look better if only because I really hate absenteeism.

Last appearance by chaosraven, June 16th:

Chaosraven wrote:
Lagom Lite wrote:Newcastle wasn't the Seer.
I would guess he wasn't the Hunter either, as the Furbies seem to be looking for one.
(Logic: killing Special if Hunter known to be dead, rather than working thru Unknown Pile)

This is where the Q's "The story of" would come in handy.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 9:53 am

theohall wrote:Unagi, cleared by Wolf West, voted for bb2112 early.
Chaosraven, cleared by Wolf West, voted for bb2112 early.
Lassr, conveniently left himself out of the early vote list for bb2112.

Very convenient that Lassr did not mention any of them when recording

After the Hunter shoots Remus West, my votes are going towards one of those three.

my comment was about who voted after BB last spoke, I was trying to figure out why BB did not mention he was the seer. At the time he spoke he had 4 votes and probably didn't feel threatened. The 6 kill votes piled on before he came back.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 10:00 am

LordMortis wrote:
Lassr wrote:and if it is the ole switcharoo then shoot Grund and lynch Remus. I wouldn't put it past these two to have the non zerker come out knowing Grund will probably get lynched eventually then he could go boom.
I don't see any gained a switcharoo, but then it's not my choice to make, much like scanning bb2112 over Q.

Remus is probably the Berzerker wolf, and should be shot. There's a chance the wolves were clever and sent forward a non-zerker, but only a chance.

and I agree with this. We have a wolf in hand and he should be shot. If the hunter wants to go the other route I think Grund would be my target.

Who has not checked in besides Chaosraven?

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 10:09 am

Since LLs revelation. No one.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 1:45 pm

Grundbegriff may be the Hunter. He checks in sporadically enough, he might be waiting to see what everyone has to say.

To Lassr, you may have been commenting on the final 6 votes, but wolves starting a train on someone and letting the village finish most of it is also likely. You are part of the early start.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 4:48 pm

theohall wrote:Grundbegriff may be the Hunter. He checks in sporadically enough, he might be waiting to see what everyone has to say.

I don't want to incite false hopes. I'm not the Hunter. I'm a simple villager.
This time, no tropes. To be still blunter: I'm not a pillager.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 5:32 pm

I wonder if the Hunter is dead and unscanned if he hasn't shot by now.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 5:53 pm

I say we shoot the wolf we know. Seems foolish not to strike a blow.
Hunter, step up, guns a-blazin'! If West ain't Splody, nice evasion.
If he is, then, threat averted, we can fix what he perverted.
Free of Remie's fuzzy math, we'll discern a winning path.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 5:57 pm

pr0ner wrote:I wonder if the Hunter is dead and unscanned if he hasn't shot by now.

The only unknown dead guy is El Guapo.

Holman - Sorcerer
Newcastle - villager
bb2112 - Seer
Qantaga - villager per Mentalist
triggercut - Medium per himself. Wolves had to kill him to prevent a bb2112 seance.
Leaving El Guapo.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 6:00 pm

theohall wrote:
pr0ner wrote:I wonder if the Hunter is dead and unscanned if he hasn't shot by now.
The only unknown dead guy is El Guapo.

Holman - Sorcerer
Newcastle - villager
bb2112 - Seer
Qantaga - villager per Mentalist
triggercut - Medium per himself. Wolves had to kill him to prevent a bb2112 seance.
Leaving El Guapo.

Future

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 6:01 pm

theohall wrote:
theohall wrote:
pr0ner wrote:I wonder if the Hunter is dead and unscanned if he hasn't shot by now.
The only unknown dead guy is El Guapo.

Holman - Sorcerer
Newcastle - villager
bb2112 - Seer
Qantaga - villager per Mentalist
triggercut - Medium per himself. Wolves had to kill him to prevent a bb2112 seance.
Leaving El Guapo.
Forgot Bakhtosh - wolf

Darn kindle Swype.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 6:02 pm

pr0ner wrote:I wonder if the Hunter is dead and unscanned if he hasn't shot by now.

that would mean El Guapo or am I missing someone else?

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 7:17 pm

Day 4 Vote Count

Spoiler:

Votes required for lynch - 8

No votes (15) - Remus West, Lassr, Vorret, tru1cy, RMC, Purge, Grundbegriff, pr0ner, Scoop20906, Chaosraven, theohall, redrun, Lagom Lite, Unagi, LordMortis

Votes for Seance

Spoiler:

Requires as least 8 Votes of which the Medium must be 1

For bb2112 (2): tru1cy, Remus West

There are 12 villagers + 3 wolves alive. The deadline for the lynch vote is July 3rd at 1pm Eastern time (please check my math).

redrun · Post by **redrun** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 8:12 pm

Lagom Lite wrote:One thing I've noticed when playing these games is that generally, villagers think up much more elaborate conspiracy theories than the wolves do. So I'm going to Occam's Razor this scenario a bit:

Remus is probably the Berzerker wolf, and should be shot. There's a chance the wolves were clever and sent forward a non-zerker, but only a chance.

Why did Remus step forward? The wolves must have felt in dire straits. The only reason I can think of is that my list was actually frighteningly accurate, and they needed to distract us from it.

So maybe we should lynch Chaosraven. Although I'm still fine with Grundbegriff, because the above plays are just the kind of stuff he's done before as a wolf. The fact that he's pointed out - twice! - that "he wouldn't come up with a fool plan like that" is precisely what I'd expect him to say.

I agree with Occam's Razor as to why Remus came forward (ie: wolves were worried, berserker came forward hoping to out and kill the seer). However, I think list or no list the wolves were in a very bad position - the sorcerer and a wolf were already dead, so a few seer scans would have assured the win, even if the seer only found good players. Thus I'm less sure that the lists caused the wolf actions.

I'm really hoping that Chaosraven is the hunter, as I somehow suspect he'd enjoy shooting Remus.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 8:46 pm

I did raise this possibility about Remus...Maybe we should go back and see who rationalized why the wolves would not make that play...

Don't have time myself, driving back from Florida. but will look later.

Of course this might make you suspect me I guess as some elaborate ploy...

redrun · Post by **redrun** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 8:51 pm

Page 8:

Chaosraven wrote:Have we EVER lynched a silent player and gotten a bad guy?

I think you need to ask Baktosh about that.

redrun · Post by **redrun** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 9:12 pm

Page 11, and the vote on me is interesting.

Lassr starts it, Remus jumps in, RMC jumps in, Baktosh jumps in... the first three were on my original 'likely evil list':

Lassr wrote:After a week of observations here are the few things that I took note of that could be something or could be nothing.

We'll start with my redrun vote:

But Lassr goes on to post throughts about several players. He and I were in each other's face on day one, but he's not completely focused on me, however...

Remus West wrote: redrun

seems awfully confrontational which is very out of character for him. Right now I'm torn between him and Mr. Rational himself, theohall.

RMC really tries to get the train rolling:

RMC wrote:After the long weekend, I somehow agree with Remus saying that redrun seems defensive. While not horribly so, he seems a little more aggressive in his defense.

So:

Withdraw El Guapo

redrun

Now scoop be a good little follower, and switch your vote as well.

Baktosh comes along and shovels coal:

Bakhtosh wrote: Withdraw RMC

I still think RMC & Theohall are likely candidates for wolf, but redrun

is literally howling.

redrun · Post by **redrun** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 9:13 pm

RMC. Wolf number three?

Page 3: BB2112 throws a question to RMC at start of day one, leading me to suspect he scanned RMC. His response to RMC's reply... a followup to RMC's known skill at finding wolves, or a shout-out that RMC is evil? I dunno.

bb2112 wrote:
RMC wrote:
bb2112 wrote:RMC, who do you think are the wolves?
Remus, BB2112, ChaosRaven are my top three guesses. Followed by everyone else not named RMC.

Oh, I think that Holman is not a wolf.

That's about all I got. Who do you think is a wolf?
Ok, I will not be voting for Remus, Chaosraven or myself today. Thanks!

Baktosh goes after RMC (and Triggercut), then we get:

RMC wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:
everybody wrote:How can you people let Remus West live? You know that's always a bad idea.

I usually push for Remus on day one. But the last game he was not a wolf, and helpful. So I say we give him a pass for day one. We can always off him on day two.

RMC keeps covering for Remus one day one (after naming Remus as a suspect), and Remus doesn't like it:

Remus West wrote:
RMC wrote:
Newcastle wrote:suspicious people
BB, remus, unagi
daylight bright
Really? BB and Remus? What has you thinking them?

And Unagi, I guess I didn't see anything about him either.
What have we done that is not suspicious? That is probably a better way to approach today. Once someone has been lynched and we have gotten to see how and why folks pushed it that way then we will have some information. Which is why Newcastle's poems are worse than his usual stuff since they are giving us nothing as to the why which is the most important part.

redrun · Post by **redrun** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 9:17 pm

I'm still on the fence about Vorret, Lassr. More Vorret than Lassr at this point. Only 11 pages into the re-read at this point.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 9:18 pm

I feel fine

I think I'll go for a walk.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 10:06 pm

redrun wrote:RMC. Wolf number three?

Page 3: BB2112 throws a question to RMC at start of day one, leading me to suspect he scanned RMC. His response to RMC's reply... a followup to RMC's known skill at finding wolves, or a shout-out that RMC is evil? I dunno.

I highly doubt BB had scanned a wolf and stayed quiet when Remus came out as the seer. He could have netted us 2 wolves at once leaving only 1 to defend himself against the village horde. He in all likelihood had 2 villagers and was hoping for one more night before revealing.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 10:08 pm

Lassr wrote:
redrun wrote:RMC. Wolf number three?

Page 3: BB2112 throws a question to RMC at start of day one, leading me to suspect he scanned RMC. His response to RMC's reply... a followup to RMC's known skill at finding wolves, or a shout-out that RMC is evil? I dunno.
I highly doubt BB had scanned a wolf and stayed quiet when Remus came out as the seer. He could have netted us 2 wolves at once leaving only 1 to defend himself against the village horde. He in all likelihood had 2 villagers and was hoping for one more night before revealing.

and if one of his scans was dead then I can understand even more why he may have chosen to stay quiet. 1 more scan then reveal and then another scan with protection then another scan and the medium contact him if killed.

Still with all those extra scan opportunities I wish he would have revealed...of course hindsight is 20/20.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Sun Jun 23, 2013 12:06 am

Leave vorret alone!!!

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sun Jun 23, 2013 3:05 am

redrun wrote:I'm still on the fence about Vorret, Lassr. More Vorret than Lassr at this point. Only 11 pages into the re-read at this point.

Why? Remus West and Lord Mortis have actively painted Vorret as evil when we already know Remus West is evil. The last person who should be on anyone's list based on prior postings is Vorret. IMO, Lord Mortis has over played his hand. Chaosraven, with his now silent role after being cleared by Wolf West raises major red flags. A good Chaosraven actually posts information about who has posted what. That is stunningly absent in this game.

Chaosraven

Since the Hunter won't shoot Remus West for some reason, we might as well lynch his silent accomplice.

Lord Mortis should be next.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Jun 23, 2013 4:05 am

stessier: I shoot Remus West in the face.

everybody else: The Hunter was in D.C. this week.

Lagom Lite · Post by **Lagom Lite** » Sun Jun 23, 2013 4:54 am

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Sun Jun 23, 2013 7:14 am

redrun wrote:RMC. Wolf number three?

Page 3: BB2112 throws a question to RMC at start of day one, leading me to suspect he scanned RMC. His response to RMC's reply... a followup to RMC's known skill at finding wolves, or a shout-out that RMC is evil? I dunno.
bb2112 wrote:
RMC wrote:
bb2112 wrote:RMC, who do you think are the wolves?
Remus, BB2112, ChaosRaven are my top three guesses. Followed by everyone else not named RMC.

Oh, I think that Holman is not a wolf.

That's about all I got. Who do you think is a wolf?
Ok, I will not be voting for Remus, Chaosraven or myself today. Thanks!
Baktosh goes after RMC (and Triggercut), then we get:
RMC wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:
everybody wrote:How can you people let Remus West live? You know that's always a bad idea.

I usually push for Remus on day one. But the last game he was not a wolf, and helpful. So I say we give him a pass for day one. We can always off him on day two.
RMC keeps covering for Remus one day one (after naming Remus as a suspect), and Remus doesn't like it:
Remus West wrote:
RMC wrote:
Newcastle wrote:suspicious people
BB, remus, unagi
daylight bright
Really? BB and Remus? What has you thinking them?

And Unagi, I guess I didn't see anything about him either.
What have we done that is not suspicious? That is probably a better way to approach today. Once someone has been lynched and we have gotten to see how and why folks pushed it that way then we will have some information. Which is why Newcastle's poems are worse than his usual stuff since they are giving us nothing as to the why which is the most important part.

This is all true..But you omitted all the posts where I really want to lynch Remus. <shrug> I don't get home tonight until late, but should be able to do a little more research and post everything.

Meanwhile if you do lynch me, remember this when I turn up villager.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Sun Jun 23, 2013 7:46 am

Chaosraven wrote:stessier: I shoot Remus West in the face.

everybody else: The Hunter was in D.C. this week.

And I am entertained. Assuming you will be the target tonight, it would be good to get an accounting of your thoughts before days end.

And theo I don't mind being next. If I go today, the village can learn to ignore you for this game. While I like some of your premises they always go off end up in crazy town.

OTOH, you and redrun come from totally different perspectives and both seem to be pointing at lassr and he's fairly high on my list. I'd be happy to vote his way.

From the peanut gallery before Remus gets shot, even though we all chimed in:

Vorret = suspicion on purge
Purge = nothing
Unagi = Gives general thoughts. Maybe purge or scoop.
Grund = nothing
Scoop = Grund
Pr0ner = nothing
Lassr = probably not unagi, and some general accountings of the past
rmc = "Maybe we should go back and see who rationalized why the wolves would not make that play"
Lordmortis = ...Well you can read a ton...

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Sun Jun 23, 2013 7:52 am

I left out what why I list what I did. I think we should follow the knowns but I don't like that not many opinions were put out there while waiting around. I don't like that we've essentially got Theo's and redruns opinions before the peanut gallery's. For now, it's my opinion that they should be judges of our opinions.

redrun · Post by **redrun** » Sun Jun 23, 2013 8:25 am

RMC wrote:
redrun wrote:RMC. Wolf number three?
This is all true..But you omitted all the posts where I really want to lynch Remus. <shrug> I don't get home tonight until late, but should be able to do a little more research and post everything.

Meanwhile if you do lynch me, remember this when I turn up villager.

I'll be very interested to see all the posts where you really want to lynch Remus.
search.php?keywords=Liaisons&terms=all& ... mit=Search" target="_blank

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Sun Jun 23, 2013 8:45 am

A challenge had been made and no one dared make another move until the situation was resolved.

Remus stalked around the assembly, furious and indignant. "If everyone was so sure I am lying", he shouted, "just shoot me. Come on - I'm standing right here!" As the morning wore on and everyone continued to stand around waiting for something to happen, he began to taunt the crowd for it's inaction and revisioninst history.

And then, from the distance, came a sound. Everyone turned to look and the more observant noticed a cloud of dust over the far away hills. As they watched, the cloud slowly resolved into the shape of Chaosraven running at full speed, legs churning, arm pumping, and beard blowing in the wind behind him. As he neared, the crowd realized the buzz was actually a song in-between the most lung wrenching wheezes. "Nah - Nah, you're dead, 50 bullets in your head!"

As the last chorus finished, Chaos lurched to a stop right in front of Remus. Bent in half, hands on his knees, Chaos looked up at Remus's towering figure. "Got a light?" Remus chuckled and tossed him his lighter. Chaos straightened up, produced a cigarette as if by magic in his right hand, and took a long drag. "That's better."

And in the next instant, Chaos produced a gun and shot Remus right in the face!

Remus dropped like a sack of rocks to the ground. The transformation was nearly immediate and his furry hide brought a smile to everyone's face.

REMUS WAS A WOLF!

Day 4 Vote Count

Spoiler:

Votes required for lynch - 8

No votes (15) - Remus West, Lassr, Vorret, tru1cy, RMC, Purge, Grundbegriff, pr0ner, Scoop20906, Chaosraven, theohall, redrun, Lagom Lite, Unagi, LordMortis

Votes for Seance

Spoiler:

Requires as least 8 Votes of which the Medium must be 1

For bb2112 (2): tru1cy

There are 12 villagers + 2 wolves alive. The deadline for the lynch vote is July 3rd at 1pm Eastern time (please check my math).[/quote]

redrun · Post by **redrun** » Sun Jun 23, 2013 9:11 am

stessier wrote: There are 12 villagers + 3 wolves alive. The deadline for the lynch vote is July 3rd at 1pm Eastern time (please check my math).

About that number of wolves still alive...