Ukraine

[GargoyleBoy]

I think it's a mental trap to assume that the Kremlin didn't sanction it because it hurts them in the end. People make mistakes. So do governments. We can't assume the people at the Kremlin automatically know what's best for Russia, any more than our own government knows what's best for the U.S.

Sure. And there are probably anti-semites within Russia's government. That said, absent inside knowledge that it would make very little sense for Russia to do it is a reasonable basis for surmising that Russia probably did not do it.

Except: a) They can shuffle the task off to a regional agent, a couple steps removed from anyone with real authority

b) They know that they can denounce it (as they already have done)

So what on the face would be a net loss for them ends up (they hope) looking like the actions of "rogue agents" - absolving them of any responsibility while still contributing to the instability of the area. If they get away with it.

My entire POINT is that the whole region is so messed up right now we CAN'T know who's responsible with any certainty. You can make assumptions (as you have) but that doesn't make them fact.

The fact is we don't know.

[El Guapo]

I think it's a mental trap to assume that the Kremlin didn't sanction it because it hurts them in the end. People make mistakes. So do governments. We can't assume the people at the Kremlin automatically know what's best for Russia, any more than our own government knows what's best for the U.S.

Sure. And there are probably anti-semites within Russia's government. That said, absent inside knowledge that it would make very little sense for Russia to do it is a reasonable basis for surmising that Russia probably did not do it.

Except: a) They can shuffle the task off to a regional agent, a couple steps removed from anyone with real authority

b) They know that they can denounce it (as they already have done)

So what on the face would be a net loss for them ends up (they hope) looking like the actions of "rogue agents" - absolving them of any responsibility while still contributing to the instability of the area. If they get away with it.

My entire POINT is that the whole region is so messed up right now we CAN'T know who's responsible with any certainty. You can make assumptions (as you have) but that doesn't make them fact.

The fact is we don't know.

I never said that we know or that what I was saying was known facts. I specifically said that I was guessing, in fact.

However, I do think that this hurts Russia's interests regardless of whether it's ever linked back to the Russian government. Russia already has the instability it needs. But to the extent that western governments and polities conclude that the pro-Russian separatists are basically Nazis (and that, if left in power, they may perpetrate atrocities against the Jews) they are more likely to actively intervene in the Ukraine, which Russia desperately does not want to happen.

[GreenGoo]

What would be Putin's motive for publicly going after the Jews in such a fashion that it very clearly brings to mind the atrocities of WWII? It's fine to say people make mistakes, but what on earth would he be trying to accomplish?

Unless we assume he's actually an anti-semite who really does want to get rid of the Jews? What do we know about the 200k or so jewish population in Russia?

We need to know what Russia was trying to do before we can suggest that they made a mistake.

[Zarathud]

What I know is that a former colleague of mine is pretty damn happy her Jewish family fled from Russia and Ukraine after the fall of the Berlin wall. Sometimes your intent in killing someone is to make them dead!

Have we devolved into children? It's a terrible mess, but we're arguing over penny ante stuff and ignoring how seriously fucked up the situation is there. And we can't do much militarily even if the American people really wanted another war.

[Isgrimnur]

As with most things, it's complicated.

Antisemitism is one of the most common expressions of xenophobia in post-Soviet Russia, even among some groups of politicians.[ Despite stipulations against fomenting hatred based on ethnic or religious grounds (Article 282 of Russian Federation Penal Code), antisemitic pronouncements, speeches and articles are not uncommon in Russia, and there are a large number of antisemitic neo-Nazi groups in the republics of the former Soviet Union, leading Pravda to declare in 2002 that "Anti-Semitism is booming in Russia". Over the past few years there have also been bombs attached to antisemitic signs, apparently aimed at Jews, and other violent incidents, including stabbings, have been recorded.

The government of Vladimir Putin takes an official stand against antisemitism, while some movements parties and groups are explicitly antisemitic. In January 2005, a group of 15 Duma members demanded that Judaism and Jewish organizations be banned from Russia. In June, 500 prominent Russians, including some 20 members of the nationalist Rodina party, demanded that the state prosecutor investigate ancient Jewish texts as "anti-Russian" and ban Judaism. An investigation was in fact launched, but halted after an international outcry.

[Holman]

What would be Putin's motive for publicly going after the Jews in such a fashion that it very clearly brings to mind the atrocities of WWII? It's fine to say people make mistakes, but what on earth would he be trying to accomplish?

Unless we assume he's actually an anti-semite who really does want to get rid of the Jews? What do we know about the 200k or so jewish population in Russia?

We need to know what Russia was trying to do before we can suggest that they made a mistake.

Anti-semitism plays well locally, especially with the kind of thugs you need for street-level chaos. Putin could be easily partner with them on the ground while denouncing them in the media. It's not a difficult game to play.

[Kurth]

What would be Putin's motive for publicly going after the Jews in such a fashion that it very clearly brings to mind the atrocities of WWII? It's fine to say people make mistakes, but what on earth would he be trying to accomplish?

With all due respect, do we really need to ask that question? "Go after the Jews" is a tried and true tactic. Galvanize the people by scapegoating a vulnerable minority. This has been happening over and over and over again for centuries. This is nothing new.

[Rip]

A number of the main actors in the pro-Russian protests in the Donetsk region have strong links with far-right parties. Pavel Gubarev, for example, is a Donetsk business owner and the head of the "People's Militia". On March 1, he was supposedly elected "people's governor" and led a crowd in storming the Donetsk regional administration building, demanding that a referendum be held on the oblast's secession and calling for Russian military intervention. His detention was presented by Russian TV channels as politically motivated persecution. They preferred not to delve into Gubarev's ideological roots as a member of the neo-Nazi Russian National Unity Party.

Gubarev, and a number of other leading figures in the Donetsk federalist protests, are members of Natalya Vitrenko's Progressive Socialist Party. That party was singled out by Josef Zissels, head of the Euro-Asian Jewish Congress when he rejected Russian claims that the EuroMaidan protesters were anti-Semitic. He said that the Congress which monitors anti-Semitism and xenophobia had instead found a lot of anti-Semitic material on pro-Russian sites like that of the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) aimed at inciting antagonism to EuroMaidan. The latter was presented as having been instigated by Jews.

A rather small rally in Mykolaiv on April 6 declared another PSP supporter, Dmitry Nikonov, "people's governor", while two members - Alexander Kharytonov and Alexander Kravtsov - are leading figures in the Luhansk Guard, a major separatist organisation in the south-east. Kravtsov is also involved in organisations with neo-Nazi leanings.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinio ... 26439.html

Hell of an article. Never expected to be saying that about something from Al Jazeera, but there it is.

[paulbaxter]

Yanukovich:
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine ... 44461.html

[Pyperkub]

Yanukovich:
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine ... 44461.html

Well, duh. He (Yanukovic) was effectively bribed to run Ukraine for Russia and Putin, what do you expect of him? His ouster, and Russia's lack of control of Ukraine following the ouster of their puppet is what drove the incursion into Crimea and the ongoing mess in Eastern Ukraine.

I don't know how accurate the analogy would be, but it has more than a whiff of the US's reaction(s) to the revolution in Cuba.

[Rip]

Going to finally step it up a notch, finally.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/04 ... ed-monday/

Leaders of the G-7 announced late Friday they had agreed to "move swiftly" to impose new sanctions against Russia over its continued role in the unrest in Ukraine.

A statement released by the White House said the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission "have now agreed that we will move swiftly to impose additional sanctions on Russia.

"Given the urgency of securing the opportunity for a successful and peaceful democratic vote next month in Ukraine's presidential elections, we have committed to act urgently to intensify targeted sanctions and measures to increase the costs of Russia's actions."

While not addressing any specific actions, the statement said, "We reiterate our strong condemnation of Russia's illegal attempt to annex Crimea and Sevastopol, which we do not recognize. We will now follow through on the full legal and practical consequences of this illegal annexation, including but not limited to the economic, trade and financial areas."

[GreenGoo]

Did I miss something?

What sanctions are in place now, that they are going with "additional" sanctions?

[Pyperkub]

Did I miss something?

What sanctions are in place now, that they are going with "additional" sanctions?

No soup for you!

[Rip]

Did I miss something?

What sanctions are in place now, that they are going with "additional" sanctions?

Try looking back to pages 14-18 of this very thread.

[GreenGoo]

Did I miss something?

What sanctions are in place now, that they are going with "additional" sanctions?

Try looking back to pages 14-18 of this very thread.

I did a quick scan (that's a lot of words!) and didn't see anything substantial. Are we talking the few people who had their assets frozen? I mean, those are sanctions, I guess, but hardly enough to influence much of anything. If I remember correctly, some of those people were corrupt Ukranian citizens.

I guess my point is, I recall that some people had assets frozen. It wasn't a large number (5-10 at most is what I remember), some of whom had no power to do anything, and were being punished because they were essentially former Ukrainian politicians (corrupt ones) who had looted the Ukraine.

Given that those came and went without a peep from pretty much anyone, and the media dropped it as a worthy news item nearly right away, I didn't get the impression the sanctions, such as they were, had the *potential* to be effective, let alone *be* effective.

If you are talking about something else I didn't see it, but again I just skimmed the pages fairly quickly.

Maybe someone could just tell me directly what sanctions are currently in place?

edit: Ok, google to the rescue. So yes, the current sanctions are the revoking of visas and asset freezing. Meh. And it looks like the next sanctions will be "second stage" sanctions, which are STILL not designed to hurt Russia economically. They might be as little as just adding more names to the "no visa freeze assets" list.

Whoopee.

edit2: further reading has all but confirmed the new sanctions are just new names having their visas withheld and assets frozen. Yay?

[Pyperkub]

Speaking on Friday, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said that any extra European measures would likely fall within the scope of "second stage" sanctions, which are much less punitive than the "third stage" sanctions that would target key sectors of the Russian economy.

In effect, many of the new measures could simply mean adding further names of Russian officials to an existing list who face visa and asset bans.

Senior European Union diplomats will reportedly meet in Brussels on Monday to consider a fresh round of sanctions against Russia over the crisis in Ukraine.

Ambassadors from the 28 member states "will meet on Monday 28 April with a view to the adoption of an additional list of 'stage 2' sanctions," such as asset freezes and travel bans, said an EU official speaking on condition of anonymity.

A list adding 15 people to the 55 Russians and Ukrainians already blacklisted by the EU was approved in principle on the eve of the Geneva talks on April 17, an EU diplomat said.

But the EU refrained from putting the sanctions into effect immediately, in order to give the peace accord a better chance of success.

[Unagi]

Rip, this is what you were waiting for, finally?

[Rip]

Rip, this is what you were waiting for, finally?

Finally making more movement. I expected this long ago and to actually be getting into more effective action by now. We are moving the right direction but at a far slower pace than I desire. Still at least there continues to be movement in the right direction which is far better than doing nothing.

[Isgrimnur]

Who shot the mayor of Kharkiv?

The mayor of Ukraine's second-largest city was shot in the back and pro-Russia insurgents seized more government buildings Monday as the U.S. hit Russia with more sanctions for allegedly fomenting the unrest in eastern Ukraine.
...
Hennady Kernes, the mayor of Kharkiv, was shot in the back Monday morning, underwent surgery and "doctors are fighting for his life," city hall said.

Kharkiv city hall spokesman Yuri Sydorenko told the Interfax news agency Kernes was shot while cycling on the outskirts of the city. Officials have not commented on who could be behind the attack.
...
Kernes was a staunch opponent of the pro-West Maidan movement that toppled President Viktor Yanukovych in February and was widely viewed as the organizer of activists sent to Kyiv from eastern Ukraine to harass those demonstrators.

But he has since softened his stance toward the new Kyiv government. At a meeting of eastern Ukrainian leaders and acting Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk earlier this month, Kernes insisted he does not support the pro-Russia insurgents and backed a united Ukraine.

[El Guapo]

Rip, this is what you were waiting for, finally?

Finally making more movement. I expected this long ago and to actually be getting into more effective action by now. We are moving the right direction but at a far slower pace than I desire. Still at least there continues to be movement in the right direction which is far better than doing nothing.

There is another reason not to go too far too fast. The primary policy goal has to be to keep Russia from invading eastern Ukraine. So you want to keep the biggest sticks in reserve to deploy if Russia does do that. If the West deploys all of its realistic harsh reprisals now then Putin has little reason not to go ahead and invade the east.

[raydude]

"Make your opponent believe that there is a road to safety, and thus prevent his fighting with the courage of despair." - Sun Tzu

[GreenGoo]

"Make your opponent believe that there is a road to safety, and thus prevent his fighting with the courage of despair." - Sun Tzu

And then "close the road from both ends and nuke it from orbit!" - Rip

[Rip]

“Intel is producing taped conversations of intelligence operatives taking their orders from Moscow and everybody can tell the difference in the accents, in the idioms, in the language. We know exactly who’s giving those orders, we know where they are coming from,” Kerry said at a private meeting of the Trilateral Commission in Washington. A recording of Kerry’s remarks was obtained by The Daily Beast.

Kerry didn’t name specific Russian officials implicated in the recordings. But he claimed that the intercepts provided proof of the Russians deliberately fomenting unrest in eastern Ukraine—and lying about it to U.S. officials and the public.

“It’s not an accident that you have some of the same people identified who were in Crimea and in Georgia and who are now in east Ukraine,” said Kerry. “This is insulting to everybody’s intelligence, let alone to our notions about how we ought to be behaving in the 21st century. It’s thuggism, it’s rogue state-ism. It’s the worst order of behavior.”

The intercepts also come as more proof has mounted inside Ukraine that Russia is behind the provocations, uprisings and other actions aimed at ripping the country apart. On Monday Ukraine's internal security service claimed they caught the self appointed separatist deputy mayor of Slavyansk with cash and encryption equipment on a return trip from Moscow. Last month, The Daily Beast reported the first signs of a Russian shadow invasion of Ukraine, noting Ukrainian arrests in eastern cities of people suspected of espionage.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... spies.html

[GreenGoo]

Meh. Everyone knows they are lying. Proof might be useful, but I think it's just a campaign of dis-information for general public, and proof won't necessarily be effective in stopping that.

Everyone from the west knows they are full of shit. Everyone from Russia has their media controlled and won't have access to this proof anyway, although I suppose some of it will trickle in through the internet.

I get that this gives evidence to back up one side's stance while undercutting the other side's, I just don't see how this changes much.

Even without this proof, we should have been acting as if it were true anyway. This is not a court of law. When you know something to be fact, you act on it as if it is fact (because it is). Proof that it is true is not required.

It solidifies the west's stance, but....what pratical difference does it make?

[Rip]

Meh. Everyone knows they are lying. Proof might be useful, but I think it's just a campaign of dis-information for general public, and proof won't necessarily be effective in stopping that.

Everyone from the west knows they are full of shit. Everyone from Russia has their media controlled and won't have access to this proof anyway, although I suppose some of it will trickle in through the internet.

I get that this gives evidence to back up one side's stance while undercutting the other side's, I just don't see how this changes much.

Even without this proof, we should have been acting as if it were true anyway. This is not a court of law. When you know something to be fact, you act on it as if it is fact (because it is). Proof that it is true is not required.

It solidifies the west's stance, but....what pratical difference does it make?

None, which I would guess is why it came out in a meeting among friends rather than at a press conference.

[Rip]

Things are beginning to devolve even farther. It sounds as though things are about to get even more violent.

Ukraine's military has stepped up its own activity, including the launch Friday of its biggest push yet to reassert control over parts of the nation's east.
Earlier this week, acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov acknowledged that the central government has effectively lost control of the country's Donetsk and Luhansk regions to the pro-Russian separatists.
The violence has spilled over into cities like Odessa, on the Black Sea. Saturday there was calm relative to the previous day -- when 46 people died in a blaze and clashes, a spokesperson for the local prosecutor's office told CNN -- with the frustration palpable on the city streets.

It's in Luhansk where separatist leader Valeriy Bolotov on Saturday declared a state of emergency and announced the formation of a "South-East" army for the entire region.
In a video statement aired on local stations, Bolotov also introduced a curfew, a ban on political parties, and his expectation that local law enforcement officials will take an oath of allegiance to the people of Luhansk.
"In case of not following this, you will be announced traitors of people of Luhansk and wartime measures will be taken against you," he announced in the video statement.
Bolotov stated that the new armed forces wouldn't just protect the region, it would try to move forward to take Ukraine's capital.
"We are not going to sit and wait until we are encircled and burned," he said.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/03/world/eur ... index.html

[GreenGoo]

I just had a Russian accented phone technician doing some work at my house. I asked him what he thought of the situation in the Ukraine.

Apparently, the current Ukraine government is illegitimate (sorta true-ish) and that the US is at fault for everything that's happening there.

Also, 50 russian sympathizers were trapped in a government building just last week while the Ukraine military burned them alive and the local police did nothing to help them.

Oh, and Ukraine controlled buildings have pro-nazi slogans and pictures of hitler on them. And the Ukraine tanks have swastikas painted on them. I asked him who he thought was in charge of the Military or whether he thought they were doing things on their own and he said it was the current illegitimate government.

This is a former russian national that has been living in Canada for a couple of years. Apparently we do not frequent the same news sources.

I just nodded politely and lamented the deplorable situation other there. The more he talked, the angrier he got. Oh yeah, also Russia saved Europe from Hitler, those Ukrainians need to pay attention to history.

I...was surprised by his response.

[Chrisoc13]

Of course we are at fault... Please.

Btw not saying you think that, it just made me laugh. Although it could be argued Russia did save Europe from Hitler. Certainly I don't think the allies would have won without Russia. Maybe they would have though who knows.

[GreenGoo]

Of course we are at fault... Please.

Btw not saying you think that, it just made me laugh. Although it could be argued Russia did save Europe from Hitler. Certainly I don't think the allies would have won without Russia. Maybe they would have though who knows.

Yes, I was just repeating what he said.

I should clarify, with regard to the US. He started out saying that the US is supporting an illegitimate government in the Ukraine, which is sorta true, although interim government is kind of necessary to avoid complete anarchy so...

After that comment, later in the conversation was more of a general "US is bad, US is responsible" sentiment.

[Grifman]

Of course we are at fault... Please.

Btw not saying you think that, it just made me laugh. Although it could be argued Russia did save Europe from Hitler. Certainly I don't think the allies would have won without Russia. Maybe they would have though who knows.

Berlin would have been nuked first so the Allies still would have won.

[Grifman]

Oh yeah, also Russia saved Europe from Hitler, those Ukrainians need to pay attention to history.

What's interesting is that Stalin wanted to join the Nazi alliance with Japan and Italy. He sent Molotov to Berlin to negotiate such a treaty. But Hitler knew he wanted to move east and put Molotov off with all sorts of excuses and conditions. I always wonder what would have happened if that had happened?

That said, your Russian friend should study some history himself. While Hitler was conquering the rest of Europe, the Russians were all too willing to supply him all the raw materials he wanted.

[Holman]

There's no denying that, when the war was going full steam, it was the Russians who inflicted the great majority of German casualties and tied down most German war production. If the German forces committed to the East had been available in the West, D-Day and the advances afterward would have been impossible. The Russians didn't beat Hitler alone, but they put way more blood and struggle into it than we did.

That said, Putin is still a douchebag who deserves to be isolated and cast down.

[Isgrimnur]

And without Lend Lease support from the Allies, there might not have been an unoccupied Moscow from which to push the Germans back.

[Grifman]

There's no denying that, when the war was going full steam, it was the Russians who inflicted the great majority of German casualties and tied down most German war production. If the German forces committed to the East had been available in the West, D-Day and the advances afterward would have been impossible. The Russians didn't beat Hitler alone, but they put way more blood and struggle into it than we did.

I don't think anyone is denying that. My point is that the Russians created their own problem and have only themselves to blame for the above facts. They were seeking an alliance with Hitler and supplying him with large amounts of crucial raw materials while the Western Allies were thrown off the continent 3 different times - Norway, France, and Greece. After all that, they were left alone facing Hitler on the continent. Those are "facts" that Russians tend to ignore.

[Grifman]

And without Lend Lease support from the Allies, there might not have been an unoccupied Moscow from which to push the Germans back.

From what I've read, Allied Lend Lease wasn't crucial in defeating the Germans before Moscow in 1941-42. The amounts arriving then were too small. But what Allied resources did provide that were crucial to subsequent Russian offensives were 500,000 trucks, food enough to supply every Russian soldier a meal a day for the entire war, most of Russia's aviation fuel, and thousands of train engines and cars. Without that aid the Russians still would have won but it would have taken much longer between offensives to transport and build up supplies for the next offensive. US trucks and trains kept the offensives of 1943-1945 going.

[GreenGoo]

That said, your Russian friend should study some history himself.

Just a reminder that this "friend" was random phone technician working on my home line.

[Grifman]

That said, your Russian friend should study some history himself.

Just a reminder that this "friend" was random phone technician working on my home line.

Sure, you Commie lover! Maybe I should have said "comrade" instead!

[Matrix]

Older Russians and eastern europeans have the Usa is bad, russia is good point of view. I have seen it number of times, usually less educated ones will have more extreme opinions. I dont argue with those, just listen, it certainly interesting for entertainment value of conversation. I havent been following situation over past few weeks, so not sure whats happening.

[cheeba]

Who the hell uses home phone lines anymore? I am suspicious of you, Goo.

Also,

That said, Putin is still a douchebag who deserves to be isolated and cast down.

Yes, absolutely true, BUT, I think we now have to start blaming Russians as a whole for their nationalism and willingness to put up with this shit.

[El Guapo]

"Now" meaning after hearing from GreenGoo's phone technician?

Anyhow, it's tough to assess the "nationalism and willingness to put up with this shit" of Russians when being unwilling to put up with this shit may get you a beating, jail time, employment troubles, etc.