Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

noxiousdog wrote:
LawBeefaroni wrote:Right now the big thing causing a kefuffle with oil is the storage capacity. As refineries go offline for the spring retooling, Cushing (storage facility) is up around a historical high of 70% I think. It has never hit full capacity. If it does, all bets are off. Or so the experts say.

The funny thing about oil, no matter where it is, some experts always see some undeniable threat looming on the horizon that will drive prices up while others see some undeniable threat looming that will drive prices down.
That's exactly what the traders cited and they said it like it was a certainty.

On the plus side, they also said that modern drilling techniques have drastically cut the cost of drilling so most wells can still profitable under $30.
And now they say they found space for 20 million more barrels at the top of the tanks. Hilarious.

Contango yet lives!

Today's inevitability is Yemen.

I bought sqqq 25 March calls last Tuesday. Wrong expiration. Crap.

LL and PBR nice today though. And anyone with KRFT.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Random notes.

Have April PBR $5.5 calls that I really don't want to hold over the long weekend, with the Iran talks and all, but it's going to be tough to sell this run. Cost around .52. Currently around 1.15 (1.08x1.23). Still have Jan 2016 $10 calls as well.

VLCCF changed their ticker to GOGL. So far no repeat of TWTR/TWTRQ. :lol:

ABTL has been our sleeper for a while, since Nov or Dec. Just feels like a buyout or something.

McDonald's has joined the pay raise parade.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Isgrimnur »

LawBeefaroni wrote:VLCCF changed their ticker to GOGL.
Knightsbridge Shipping Limited ("Knightsbridge") has completed its previously announced merger with Golden Ocean Group Limited ("Old Golden Ocean").

In connection with the closing of the merger, Knightsbridge will change its name to Golden Ocean Group Limited. Trading in the shares of the combined company will commence on the Oslo Stock Exchange on April 1, 2015. The combined company will trade on the Oslo Stock Exchange under the ticker code "VLCCF" on April 1, 2015. Commencing on April 7, 2015, the combined company will trade on the Oslo Stock Exchange under the ticker code "GOGL". The combined company will begin trading under its new name and ticker symbol "GOGL" on the Nasdaq Global Select Market on April 1, 2015.
You can't tell me that the Nasdaq date switch didn't get some people confused.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Isgrimnur wrote:
LawBeefaroni wrote:VLCCF changed their ticker to GOGL.
Knightsbridge Shipping Limited ("Knightsbridge") has completed its previously announced merger with Golden Ocean Group Limited ("Old Golden Ocean").

In connection with the closing of the merger, Knightsbridge will change its name to Golden Ocean Group Limited. Trading in the shares of the combined company will commence on the Oslo Stock Exchange on April 1, 2015. The combined company will trade on the Oslo Stock Exchange under the ticker code "VLCCF" on April 1, 2015. Commencing on April 7, 2015, the combined company will trade on the Oslo Stock Exchange under the ticker code "GOGL". The combined company will begin trading under its new name and ticker symbol "GOGL" on the Nasdaq Global Select Market on April 1, 2015.
You can't tell me that the Nasdaq date switch didn't get some people confused.
Yeah, it's a bad date. I assume it was to coincide with the quarter but still.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Have April PBR $5.5 calls that I really don't want to hold over the long weekend, with the Iran talks and all, but it's going to be tough to sell this run. Cost around .52. Currently around 1.15 (1.08x1.23). Still have Jan 2016 $10 calls as well.
Sold half of the Aprils last Thursday to "freeride" so I could sleep well over the weekend. $1.85 (1.78x1.91) right now for anyone keeping score. :grund: But I did have a carefree weekend.


Meanwhile, individual Chinese retail investors are "investing" on credit as they pour into the market in record numbers.
To get a sense of the frenzy in China’s world-beating equity market, consider this: In a two-week span last month, the rally lured 2.8 million rookie stock pickers, almost the equivalent of Chicago’s entire population.

The number of new equity accounts surged to a record during the two weeks ended March 27, five times the average of the past year, data from China Securities Depository and Clearing Co. showed on Tuesday. About 4 million were opened in March, enough for every person in Los Angeles. More than two-thirds of new investors have never attended or graduated from high school, according to a survey by China’s Southwestern University of Finance and Economics.

Signs of inexperienced investors’ growing influence on the $6.5 trillion market have already shown up in the outperformance of China’s equivalent of penny stocks and a jump in share-price volatility to the highest level in five years. While fresh capital may feed market momentum as the government steps up efforts to support economic growth, foreign money managers have been selling shares on concern the gains are overdone.
Shit is going to pop and pop hard. If only I knew when because until it does I don't want to get in front of all that irrationality.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Someone explain to me why a primary residence is a bad investment vehicle.

Because I am seriously tempted to upgrade to a much bigger, better located and more valuable home for quality of life reasons, but I would hope it would pay dividends in a couple of decades as well.

Borrowing costs are low, my mortgage and payments wouldn't change too much, but my taxes would go up.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

GreenGoo wrote:Someone explain to me why a primary residence is a bad investment vehicle.

Because I am seriously tempted to upgrade to a much bigger, better located and more valuable home for quality of life reasons, but I would hope it would pay dividends in a couple of decades as well.

Borrowing costs are low, my mortgage and payments wouldn't change too much, but my taxes would go up.
It depends on what you're using it for.

As an investment vehicle it's not very liquid. It tends to appreciate about 5% per year, but you can easily have that much in maintenance and taxes.

As a bonus to quality of life? It's a lot more value than a car or a boat.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Good point about the taxes and maintenance eating any appreciation.

Hmmm.

I could just remodel my current home, but that might require an addition. Any renovations have a pile of risks, not the least of which is finding a reputable contractor who does good work.

I thought this would be a kind of exciting decision. Instead it kind of sucks.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

GreenGoo wrote:Good point about the taxes and maintenance eating any appreciation.
But you're going to pay taxes and maintenance (or rent) regardless of where you live.

Moving out of boredom isn't a great idea but upgrading can have benefits. The thing is it's highly location and situation specific. It's hard to say if a move would be good for you or not.

Do you even buy houses in Canada? Don't you get them free or something? :wink:
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
GreenGoo wrote:Good point about the taxes and maintenance eating any appreciation.
But you're going to pay taxes and maintenance (or rent) regardless of where you live.

Moving out of boredom isn't a great idea but upgrading can have benefits. The thing is it's highly location and situation specific. It's hard to say if a move would be good for you or not.

Do you even buy houses in Canada? Don't you get them free or something? :wink:
Mostly, but our sense of civic duty is so strong that we "donate" the money to the previous owner. We "pay it forward" as it were.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

LawBeefaroni wrote: But you're going to pay taxes and maintenance (or rent) regardless of where you live.
Just as a caveat, while that's true, we are specifically talking about marginal dollars. We are talking about whether a spare 10k (or $x income) is a good investment in a primary residence as opposed to another investment vehicle.
Black Lives Matter

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

noxiousdog wrote:
LawBeefaroni wrote: But you're going to pay taxes and maintenance (or rent) regardless of where you live.
Just as a caveat, while that's true, we are specifically talking about marginal dollars. We are talking about whether a spare 10k (or $x income) is a good investment in a primary residence as opposed to another investment vehicle.
Yeah, I almost responded as Lawbeef did but then realized I specifically asked about the investment potential of buying a bigger house, as opposed to staying in the same house and dumping money into funds or something, since these aren't taxed every year simply by owning them, nor is money required to be pumped into them just to keep them from losing their initial value (i.e. house maintenance).
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

GreenGoo wrote:
noxiousdog wrote:
LawBeefaroni wrote: But you're going to pay taxes and maintenance (or rent) regardless of where you live.
Just as a caveat, while that's true, we are specifically talking about marginal dollars. We are talking about whether a spare 10k (or $x income) is a good investment in a primary residence as opposed to another investment vehicle.
Yeah, I almost responded as Lawbeef did but then realized I specifically asked about the investment potential of buying a bigger house, as opposed to staying in the same house and dumping money into funds or something, since these aren't taxed every year simply by owning them, nor is money required to be pumped into them just to keep them from losing their initial value (i.e. house maintenance).
Well, wasn't the other investment vehicle an addition? That can certainly lead to higher taxes in a reassessment and/or higher maintenance costs on the new square footage.


But I do agree. We're still in the same place we bought 12 years ago precisely because I'm far more comfortable putting additional assets in to something more liquid and higher yielding than more housing debt/equity.

And I still need to make that bumper sticker for our 16-year-old car that says "My Other Car is Boeing Shares."
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

LawBeefaroni wrote:And I still need to make that bumper sticker for our 16-year-old car that says "My Other Car is Boeing Shares."

:D
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

LawBeefaroni wrote: And I still need to make that bumper sticker for our 16-year-old car that says "My Other Car is Boeing Shares."
That's fantastic.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Here's an idea: Swiss 10-year bonds.

You pay them to loan them money!
The Swiss government became the first ever to auction off 10-year debt at a negative yield on Wednesday, as quantitative easing and deflation fears pushed up bond prices.

Sold at a yield of -0.055pc, investors bought 232.51m Swiss francs (£161.76m) of debt at a price that could mean they end up paying Switzerland’s government to hold their money.

Investors will be hoping to offload the notes before they mature in 2025 if they wish to make a return.

The launch of a European Central Bank QE scheme and global disinflation have led to higher prices for government bonds. Many short-dated notes have sold at negative yields, but the Swiss auction is the first benchmark 10-year issue to be auctioned in such territory.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Lol, but there is still the possibility of capital gains on those right? Don't they separate the rate from the bond value and trade them separately?

I don't really know how bonds work, other than the obvious gic-type bond, but I vaguely understand that the value of the bond is related to it's rate versus current bond rates and some other stuff mumble mumble mumble.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

You'd basically be betting on the Swiss Franc. Yes, it's possible to profit from the bonds but as long as you hold them you're paying 5 1/2 bips every 6 months.

It's probably a good deal for someone living in Switzerland, their overnight rate is -0.8%.

It's a strong currency. Those bonds would basically be a safety play for non-Swiss currency holders.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Nothing like a phantom maintenance call to make Monday morning more enjoyable. Brokerage can't explain it (since I have a $0 margin and nothing naked or short) and nothing executed but still gets the heart racing. They said not to worry about it but I still transferred cash.
LawBeefaroni wrote:
LawBeefaroni wrote: Have April PBR $5.5 calls that I really don't want to hold over the long weekend, with the Iran talks and all, but it's going to be tough to sell this run. Cost around .52. Currently around 1.15 (1.08x1.23). Still have Jan 2016 $10 calls as well.
Sold half of the Aprils last Thursday to "freeride" so I could sleep well over the weekend. $1.85 (1.78x1.91) right now for anyone keeping score. :grund: But I did have a carefree weekend.
The calls are now around 2.65x2.70. That's around +360%. Sold half at around +110% (above).

Also bought a May strangle in the same ($7 put/$8 call) on Friday since my April calls are expiring and I was expecting fireworks around the earnings report or further delay thereof at the end of the month. The strangle turned profitable this morning. Barely profitable but not so bad for 1 day ($0.85/pair now at $1.01).



I'm not sure what I'm doing [at lunch] the rest of the week. Checking earnings calendar and waiting for China to collapse. VIX seems low, UVXY?
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Sold those Aprils a few days before expiration for 3.35 (from .52).

The .85 strangle is now 2.21. My idea was movement on the Q4/FY release but now they also announced they'll be doing Q1 on May 15 (expiration day). Depending on timing of the release I may keep it in play or roll it. I can roll from a May 15 (monthly) 7/8 to a 9.5/10 May 22 (weekly) for a credit just about equal to the original price of the strangle. PBR is currently around $10 and change.

Been too busy at work to pay much attention to earnings. AMZN looks like they've killed it though. Holy crap.



Oh, and put on a May strangle in SIRI last week. Not a high probability choice but I wanted something on SIRI. Probably should have done Amazon.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

I wish I understood your jargon. I read books. I think I have a basic understanding. I read Internet speak on the topics and I'm still lost. The good news is you guys speak in options and such and I don't think I'll be that type of investor for a long time, if ever.

That said, I'm watching Ford drop again so I'm debating taking some of my savings and putting it into Ford. I can't see it taking a real or sustained hit in stock value or see them dropping dividends, and I'd be much happier making close to 4% in dividend than the .1% I am earning in interest.

Still it's my rainy day money, so I'm not sure what I'll do.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

LordMortis wrote:I wish I understood your jargon.
Lol. I'm basically the same.

Lawbeef, can you be my friend and just tell me what to do? I'll take an "install guide" or "Faq" and then you just say "jump" and I throw away thousands of dollars based on a stranger telling me to on the internet.

Sounds legit.

Let's do this thing.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

If you understand the fundamental idea of calls and puts, it's pretty straightforward. The jargon is there to make it seem harder than it is.

For the PBR calls I bought in March (March 24th), I was just betting that PBR would go up. But rather than spending ~$5.80 per share (the price on March 24), I paid ~$0.52 per share by buying options ($5.50 calls). On April 15th, when I sold my last call, PBR was around $8.80. 100 shares of PBR would have had a $300 profit while 1 call option (100 shares) would have had around a $270 profit. The key difference being the initial investment for 100 shares would have been $580 and the initial investment for 1 call option was $52. So spend $580 to make $300 (51% profit) or $52 to make $270 (500+% profit), albeit the latter with higher risk. (And the latter probably involves selling some or all well before that 500% because it's hard to turn down 50%, 100%, 200%, etc.)

For the PBR strangles I bought later (April 10th), I was betting that PBR would continue to move after the big run-up but I wasn't 100% if it would be up for down. Strangles are just a combination of calls and puts that are designed to you make money if a stock moves a lot and lose if it doesn't move a lot. In fact, all options are either calls, puts, or a combination thereof with a fancy name. Strangles, straddles, butterflies, condors, they're all just a combination of calls and puts.




Keep in mind, I've spent a lot of time on PBR and know more about oil and graft in Brazil than I care to. Yesterday when the write-down news "came out", PBR was all over the place. Right around it's lows I texted a friend and told him how everyone was misreading PBR news and how $17B in write-downs was actually a good thing. Sure enough, it rallied big time and was up over a buck from those lows.

Still, I'm just a hobbyist. I see it as training for retirement (the way some people view golf). I still let the pros manage my 401K and pension even though I don't really trust them.






Just bought some F May (May 1st weeklies) $16 calls...
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

LawBeefaroni wrote:Just bought some F May (May 1st weeklies) $16 calls...
Welcome!

And because I was feeling particularly automotive...ly last month, I initiated a position in GM as well. USA! USA! :P
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Post by Pyperkub »

Holy Fuck Amazon! I go to RSA for a day and fuck. I vaguely knew that the earnings news was good, but still.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

Pyperkub wrote:Holy Fuck Amazon! I go to RSA for a day and fuck. I vaguely knew that the earnings news was good, but still.
I still don't understand the Amazon profit story. This is a nice synopsis and comparison from "tulula" on the motley fool:
Just a sample news title today:
"Amazon stuns Wall Street with cloud business profits"

And few from a couple days earlier after IBM's earnings report:
"IBM Is Still Dead Money"
"IBM Continues Sharp Spin Downward"
"IBM Reports Another Disappointing Quarter"

Well, the sentiment is clear. I prefer to anchor on following:
AMZN cloud revenue -- $1.6b in the quarter, up 50% from last year.
IBM cloud revenue -- $7.7b on a trailing 12-month basis, up over 75%
year-to-year.

So, one company is spinning downward with 26% operating margin, 17%
profit margin and 34% return on capital. The other has investors
awestruck with admiration for 5.5% operating margin, 0% profit margin
and 0% return on capital.

Both spend $4 to $5 billion on capital expenditures. One makes no money
doing it, the other is frustrating investors with $16b normalized in
free cash flow, dividend and buybacks.

Go figure.
And there was a recent survery commissioned by microsoft with IBM cloud services prefered 3:1 over Amazon.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Carpet_pissr wrote:
LawBeefaroni wrote:Just bought some F May (May 1st weeklies) $16 calls...
Welcome!

And because I was feeling particularly automotive...ly last month, I initiated a position in GM as well. USA! USA! :P
+60%, I don't think I want to hold through earnings. Do I?
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

noxiousdog wrote:
Pyperkub wrote:Holy Fuck Amazon! I go to RSA for a day and fuck. I vaguely knew that the earnings news was good, but still.
I still don't understand the Amazon profit story. This is a nice synopsis and comparison from "tulula" on the motley fool:
So, one company is spinning downward with 26% operating margin, 17%
profit margin and 34% return on capital. The other has investors
awestruck with admiration for 5.5% operating margin, 0% profit margin
and 0% return on capital.
And there was a recent survery commissioned by microsoft with IBM cloud services prefered 3:1 over Amazon.
Amazon is a stock you date. IBM is a stock you marry.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Pyperkub »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
noxiousdog wrote:
Pyperkub wrote:Holy Fuck Amazon! I go to RSA for a day and fuck. I vaguely knew that the earnings news was good, but still.
I still don't understand the Amazon profit story. This is a nice synopsis and comparison from "tulula" on the motley fool:
So, one company is spinning downward with 26% operating margin, 17%
profit margin and 34% return on capital. The other has investors
awestruck with admiration for 5.5% operating margin, 0% profit margin
and 0% return on capital.
And there was a recent survery commissioned by microsoft with IBM cloud services prefered 3:1 over Amazon.
Amazon is a stock you date. IBM is a stock you marry.
Because Amazon is actually bigger than all of the above in the space (cloud):
Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains larger than Microsoft (MSFT), IBM (IBM), Google (GOOG) and Salesforce.com (CRM) combined in the cloud infrastructure service market.

AWS continues to grow faster than the cloud infrastructure service market as a whole, according to Synergy. The market intelligence firm said AWS' market share increased 29 percent in the first quarter of this year; AWS previously reported $1.566 billion in net sales during the time frame, too.
As IBM has moved to a services/consulting company, they've done well (they've been on my watch list and have more than doubled over that time), but I'd expect that the reason IBM folks are happy with them are the add-on consulting relationships.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

Shrug. If you say so. I'll take the high margin business.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Pyperkub »

noxiousdog wrote:Shrug. If you say so. I'll take the high margin business.
By all means. It is possible to hold both ;). I actually have a bunch of MS as well (probably a larger share). Amazon is one of those "let's take a flyer on them" - as stated before, I don't have a large stake (just 25 shares currently). I have a number of other 'safe' stocks just DRIP'ing their way up in my long-term porfolio.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

Pyperkub wrote:
noxiousdog wrote:Shrug. If you say so. I'll take the high margin business.
By all means. It is possible to hold both ;). I actually have a bunch of MS as well (probably a larger share). Amazon is one of those "let's take a flyer on them" - as stated before, I don't have a large stake (just 25 shares currently). I have a number of other 'safe' stocks just DRIP'ing their way up in my long-term porfolio.
Indeed. I just have lost too much money on flyers. :)
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Pyperkub »

noxiousdog wrote:
Pyperkub wrote:
noxiousdog wrote:Shrug. If you say so. I'll take the high margin business.
By all means. It is possible to hold both ;). I actually have a bunch of MS as well (probably a larger share). Amazon is one of those "let's take a flyer on them" - as stated before, I don't have a large stake (just 25 shares currently). I have a number of other 'safe' stocks just DRIP'ing their way up in my long-term porfolio.
Indeed. I just have lost too much money on flyers. :)
And I've lost too much money on Blue Chips. I'm still declaring deferred losses from my BofA investment prior to the crash (see a few years upthread).

I tend to take flyers on tech companies who have tech I really like, expect to do well and follow.

E.g: I still have half of my original TiVo stake (about 100 shares of 200 - not much), bought at ~$5.15/share - I sold the first batch after a spike to about $17/18. It hasn't done much lately (hovering between $10-12), and I'm thinking that the patent portfolio might not be as valuable anymore in a cord-cutting world, but I'm in full gravy realm and it's just the opportunity cost of what else the money could be doing that I'm risking.
Last edited by Pyperkub on Mon Apr 27, 2015 4:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Carpet_pissr wrote:
LawBeefaroni wrote:Here's the list with last week's IBD's Composite Rating (1-99, with 99 being their highest):

CVX (Energy - Oil Gas) - 61
APA (Energy - Oil Gas) - 68
CVS (Consumer retail - Ubiquity) - 81
ABT (Pharma/Medical supplies) - 57
OXY (Energy - Oil Gas) - 75
KO (Consumer goods - staples) - 55
XOM (Energy - Oil Gas) - 64
T (Communications) - 54
LOW (Consumer retail - Big Box) - 48
TJX (Consumer retail - Discount) - 47

Keeping in mind that IBD's composite is based on EPS (growth), "Relative Strength" (12 month performance vs all other stocks), Sales+Margin+ROE, 3 month AC/D.
Excellent! Now just for the hell of it, I am going to buy OXY on Monday as a kind of experiment to see if our little trifecta of newsletters are on the money. I am not counting Zack's here, due to the shorter time frame generally considered, but if anyone is interested, OXY is currently listed as HOLD for short term (1-3 months I think is the frame), and NEUTRAL on the longer term, with a "target price" of $106.

Their reasoning for not being more bullish (though they list quite a few positives) is potential "stringent regulation, volatile commodity prices, and risks associated with exploration and production" which is pretty standard fare risk for such a company IMO.
So just to revisit this OXY purchase (the above is from July last year), I am currently down 22%, but plan to hold until oil prices go back up of course.

Also of note (and to keep myself honest), a couple of weeks after I wrote that, I noted that I sold Amazon on the big swing up before its earnings (and profited nicely). Had bought it 3 months prior at $304, then sold it around $360. Funny thing is I wrote that I planned to hold it for YEARS - just sit on it like Fezzil for half a decade or so. Close last Friday? $452.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

How long can you defer capital losses?

I was under the impression that they must be claimed in the year they are realized. Are you holding onto the stock and selling when you have capital gains to offset?
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

Pyperkub wrote:
And I've lost too much money on Blue Chips. I'm still declaring deferred losses from my BofA investment prior to the crash (see a few years upthread).
I don't have any preference for Blue Chips either. I look for stuff where there is obvious value that other people aren't recognizing. I'm not afraid of high P/Es or anything. Google has been very good to me. I hold Tesla now (clearly my biggest gamble), but you can see where the profits will come from.

AMZN is just one I can't figure out. At the end of they day they are retail. and retail has profit margins of 3%. Even if they "win" cloud, without service add-ons it's still a low margin business. I'm also not sure they can beat Microsoft, in the long run, due to licencing costs.

Obviously other people see more promise.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

GreenGoo wrote:How long can you defer capital losses?

I was under the impression that they must be claimed in the year they are realized. Are you holding onto the stock and selling when you have capital gains to offset?
IRS wrote:If your capital losses exceed your capital gains, the amount of the excess loss that you can claim on line 13 of Form 1040 to lower your income is the lesser of $3,000, ($1,500 if you are married filing separately) or your total net loss shown on line 16 of the Form 1040, Schedule D (PDF), Capital Gains and Losses. If your net capital loss is more than this limit, you can carry the loss forward to later years. You may use the Capital Loss Carryover Worksheet found in either Publication 550, Investment Income and Expenses, or the Form 1040, Schedule D Instructions (PDF), to figure the amount you can carry forward.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

What, like forever?

Sweet deal. Assuming that you have capital gains in the future. Otherwise it doesn't help much. :wink:
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

AAPL just boomed with earnings.

I think it might be an overreaction, looking at it.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Pyperkub »

GreenGoo wrote:What, like forever?

Sweet deal. Assuming that you have capital gains in the future. Otherwise it doesn't help much. :wink:

Otherwise I may have had a decent refund that year. Honestly, I probably wouldn't have thought to claim it, but TurboTax automatically prompted me for it.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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