Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

nasai · Post by **nasai** » Wed Apr 29, 2015 1:42 am

Beautiful $TWTR straddle today netted me 64.8% before close. I love jacked moves like that.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:58 am

nasai wrote:Beautiful $TWTR straddle today netted me 64.8% before close. I love jacked moves like that.

Leaked/mis-released earnings 4TW.

Jumped in front of GPRO this morning with some May 1st puts.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Apr 29, 2015 10:16 am

LawBeefaroni wrote:
nasai wrote:Beautiful $TWTR straddle today netted me 64.8% before close. I love jacked moves like that.
Leaked/mis-released earnings 4TW.

Jumped in front of GPRO this morning with some May 1st puts.

And out.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Apr 29, 2015 10:37 am

LB (and others)

As much playing as you do and as positive your quick turn arounds sound here, do you ever get burned and just not post your FUCK!!!s ? You have to, right? From reading here, if I could do what you do for as long as you've been doing it I'd already be on the retirement train. Can I just give you my money and have you make me a ton of money?

Of course I'm risk averse. I can't imagine how much money I'd have to have to really play around to shoot for these options based in and out ROIs that you guys post here that I'm still don't fully understand. But I'm still in awe as I very slowly am starting to Buy and Hold in a Roth IRA outside of my 401k and now very very slowly buy and hold as an extension of my money-market savings account, trying to earn better than .1%. Soon I will make a second transfer. I have to figure out if I will still hold faith in SPY not taking a major step backwards in the foreseeable future or if I want to go somewhere else.

One day I may have to go into the local Scottrade office and learn how trading options works in their interface. That one day will probably many days from now.

In the mean time, time to read another book.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Apr 29, 2015 11:41 am

Ok, so here's some disclosure.

Here are the %G/L on the last 20 options trades from one of my accounts:

Code: Select all

Description	% G/L
PBR Apr 17 2015 5.5 Call	408.42%
PBR Apr 17 2015 5.5 Call	79.11%
AMD Apr 17 2015 3.00 Call -100.00%
SLV Jan 17 2015 17.00 Put	47.49%
GTI Oct 18 2014 5.00 Call	-100.00%
GTI Sep 20 2014 7.50 Call	-100.00%
NKE Sep 20 2014 82.50 Call	-100.00%
ORCL Aug 16 2014 44.00 Call	-100.00%
DIS Aug 16 2014 86.00 Call	19.78%
GTI Aug 16 2014 7.50 Call	36.14%
BBRY Jun 21 2014 10.00 Put	-81.51%
KNDI Jun 21 2014 12.50 Put	-100.00%
IGT May 17 2014 14.00 Call	-100.00%
IGT Apr 19 2014 13.00 Call	-10.49%
SQQQ May 17 2014 60.00 Call	30.00%
SQQQ Apr 19 2014 55.00 Call	33.38%
ZNGA Mar 22 2014 5.00 Put	-26.00%
RICK Feb 22 2014 10.00 Call	-32.54%
DIS Feb 07 2014 71.50 Call	299.07%
DIS Feb 07 2014 71.50 Call	314.57%

(the -100%s are when my out-of-the-money options expire worthless)

As you can see from some of the losses, I missed a few more big wins by a matter of days or weeks (pretty sure I posted my frustration on the IGT trades here). Others were doomed from the start teaching moments. Generally my smaller positions are the ones I will let crater to $0. The net for all those trades was around a 20% gain.

Keep in mind that I mostly only buy calls and puts (and maybe write some covered calls). I don't sell them short. I'm not comfortable doing so unless I'm able to devote full attention to the market. I don't want to get pulled into a meeting at work and have a short position run away on me. I'll dabble in verticals and other combos, as long as I can get an alert and sell them from my phone. I also only do options trades under $1000, usually under $500. It's a hobby.

Current options positions:
F $16 Call (May 1 weekly): cost $0.10, value $0.13 -- right now I'm hoping to break even after commissions. Ford is ex-div today which was priced in to the option obviously, but also mitigated what would have been an even better day.
PBR $7/$8 Strangle (May 2015): cost $0.85, value $1.56 -- well in the money but I'm not being very disciplined on this one. Should have sold when PBR hit $10.
PRB $10 Call (Jan 2016): Cost $1.07, value $1.30 -- Holding for oil rebound but also should have sold when PBR hit $10.
SIRI $3.5/$4 Strangle (May 2015): Cost $0.08, value $? -- Broker says it's around $0.15 but market liquidity is an issue here, I think it's more like $0.08. This one is not looking good.

GPRO this morning was about a 35% gain but I watched it become what would have been well over 100% right after I sold it.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Apr 29, 2015 11:50 am

LordMortis wrote: Of course I'm risk averse. I can't imagine how much money I'd have to have to really play around to shoot for these options based in and out ROIs that you guys post here that I'm still don't fully understand.

I have accounts where I am risk averse and others where I embrace risk. My larger accounts are the former.

LordMortis wrote: I can't imagine how much money I'd have to have to really play around to shoot for these options based in and out ROIs that you guys post here that I'm still don't fully understand.

The attractive thing about options for speculative purposes is that you don't need a lot of capital. But you do risk that lesser capital a lot more.

LordMortis wrote:But I'm still in awe as I very slowly am starting to Buy and Hold in a Roth IRA outside of my 401k and now very very slowly buy and hold as an extension of my money-market savings account, trying to earn better than .1%. Soon I will make a second transfer. I have to figure out if I will still hold faith in SPY not taking a major step backwards in the foreseeable future or if I want to go somewhere else.

Have you ever considered covered calls? It's a good way to generate income and hedge a bit if you are buying and holding.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Wed Apr 29, 2015 12:28 pm

When I first joined a sysadmin team, I found a very senior consultant and we literally had classes where he would be up at a white board and I would be furiously scribbling away at my notes as he taught me the basics. I had exactly zero sysadmin experience at that time, besides my game machine, although I did have IT training and was a senior code monkey (well, maybe a little more than that, but no low level stuff). I knew some stuff, but I had no experience with SANs, my networking knowledge was a joke, etc etc.

Lawbeef (and anyone else interested) should start a thread teaching those of us who know nothing, so that we can know something. Even if I weren't to put it to use, I'd feel better understanding things more and I could follow along in this thread a bit better.

I was lucky as my sysadmin dude loved to teach. It's a lot of work, and I'm certainly not volunteering anyone. I'm just putting the idea out there to see what the response might be like.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Apr 29, 2015 12:36 pm

I am intrigued by your idea and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

Options have always been scary to me. I'd love to learn more about them.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Apr 29, 2015 12:51 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:Have you ever considered covered calls? It's a good way to generate income and hedge a bit if you are buying and holding.

It's not something I've read about yet. I also don't understand "the market" well enough yet to comfortable with anything but "safe" old stocks of companies that aren't going any where, index funds, and one safe looking propane company that has a localish presence (that I bit it hard on at its peak because I wanted to put my IRA money in right when it was available. Reasonably I should be throwing more money at it after it went down but I'm not made of money and I don't want drain my money market account as it is both my operating budget and my emergency fund money.)

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Apr 30, 2015 11:19 am

Bought GG $18 May calls. $1.21. I like big moves at open on earnings that I think will come back in. Same idea as GPRO yesterday but this one is a bit more of a gamble and may have to hold a bit longer.

Oh and I passed up about another 100% selling those GPRO puts yesterday. Stock is down $2.00 today. Made about $65/contract and today it's looking like profit would be around $225 per. Hurray for discipline.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Thu Apr 30, 2015 11:47 am

Psst. What do you think of my proposal? Not that I'm volunteering anyone or anything.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Apr 30, 2015 11:54 am

GreenGoo wrote:Psst. What do you think of my proposal? Not that I'm volunteering anyone or anything.

It's a good idea. I've actually discussed a similar idea in the past with some of my friends. Just a barebones, facts-of-life resource explaining equities, markets, and derivatives. No trade tips, no techniques, or can't-miss "rules."

When I have time to give it a good effort I'll probably do it.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Thu Apr 30, 2015 2:18 pm

'The goal of the nonprofessional should not be to pick winners — neither he nor his 'helpers' can do that — but should rather be to own a cross section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well. A low-cost S&P 500 index fund will achieve this goal.'
—Warren Buffett, 2013 letter to shareholders

"From 1984 to 1998 — a full 15 years — only eight out of 200 fund managers beat the Vanguard 500 Index."

Sure would like to see a broader range on that last one...maybe through 2012.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Thu Apr 30, 2015 2:40 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote:'The goal of the nonprofessional should not be to pick winners — neither he nor his 'helpers' can do that — but should rather be to own a cross section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well. A low-cost S&P 500 index fund will achieve this goal.'
—Warren Buffett, 2013 letter to shareholders

"From 1984 to 1998 — a full 15 years — only eight out of 200 fund managers beat the Vanguard 500 Index."

Sure would like to see a broader range on that last one...maybe through 2012.

That is interesting and probably not a surprise to anyone today. In the early 90's though, they were really hard selling who the manager was of any given fund and how important it was to choose a good manager over a good fund (well, sorta).

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Thu Apr 30, 2015 2:44 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:
GreenGoo wrote:Psst. What do you think of my proposal? Not that I'm volunteering anyone or anything.
It's a good idea. I've actually discussed a similar idea in the past with some of my friends. Just a barebones, facts-of-life resource explaining equities, markets, and derivatives. No trade tips, no techniques, or can't-miss "rules."

When I have time to give it a good effort I'll probably do it.

I'm sure there are more than 3 of us interested in this. You could start small, then add posts on different subjects over time. You could paste those posts into the original post until it starts to take a more cohesive shape. You could treat it like a game guide post that you see on popular game forums.

Honestly, you couldn't start too basic for me. I mean, I know stuff, but not much and not comprehensively, so even if you covered commonly known ground for some of it I think it would be beneficial.

I'd like to see what your thoughts are as an initial step and then obviously questions would arise that would flesh out the discussion.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Apr 30, 2015 2:46 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote:
"From 1984 to 1998 — a full 15 years — only eight out of 200 fund managers beat the Vanguard 500 Index."

And one of those eight was Bernie Madoff, right?

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue May 05, 2015 11:15 am

Held F $16 calls to expiration on Friday, 100% loser.

Just sold the PBR May Call half ($8) of the strangle for ~$2.25, purchase was $.46. So 204% win. Still have the put side from the strangle ($7), it's worth $0.02 so I'm not going to bother selling it. Total for the strangle, assuming the put goes to zero, is $.85 purchase, $2.25 sale, $1.4 net, 60% 160% gain. Could be leaving a lot on the table but happy to get out with the win and before expiration on Friday, which also happens to be PBR earnings. And I still have the Jan $10 calls for any upside.

Tried to get out of the $18 GG calls with a profit this morning but they're not so liquid.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed May 06, 2015 10:02 am

Bought 2 HLF May $47 puts.

Was too late on TSLA, wanted to get puts there too.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed May 06, 2015 11:20 am

LawBeefaroni wrote:Held F $16 calls to expiration on Friday, 100% loser.

Sorry to hear that. I just picked up more Ford at something like 15.53 this morning. I probably shouldn't have dipped into my savings but the price seems good to buy again as it really looks like Ford should be sitting around $16 and I'm much happier making 3.8% on my savings rather than the .01% it makes sitting in savings. I didn't put in too much though, as I still like a fairly plush savings cushion, as I always feels like I am about one paycheck away from unemployment.

One day I will worry about options. One day...

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Tue May 12, 2015 2:31 pm

OK, Lawbeef, gimme the skinny on what IBD says about SU and RYAM. Leaning towards RYAM currently, as I am still pretty energy heavy right now (and just sold DVN at a small 13% gain).

Those two are the only picks that both Zacks and M* agree on are worthy of new money currently, so I am interested. Need a tiebreaker though.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue May 12, 2015 3:41 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote:OK, Lawbeef, gimme the skinny on what IBD says about SU and RYAM. Leaning towards RYAM currently, as I am still pretty energy heavy right now (and just sold DVN at a small 13% gain).

Those two are the only picks that both Zacks and M* agree on are worthy of new money currently, so I am interested. Need a tiebreaker though.

SU has a 9 IBD Composite (of 99), EPS growth rating of 26, D in Sales+margin+ROE, and a C+ in 3 month Ac/D. But then a lot of energy is getting bad ratings by IBD.

Don't see RYAM, what are they, chemicals?

I probably jumped in front of HLF and SUNE way too early but liking what I see today. GG pushing $19.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Tue May 12, 2015 3:46 pm

RYAM = Rayonier

Rayonier Advanced Materials manufactures cellulose specialties, or CS, for a variety of applications. It is the industry's biggest player, with about 30% of the 1.6 million-ton market. Acetate tow, used mainly in cigarette filters, is the company's top product, accounting for about 80% of the 479,000 tons of CS that Rayonier sold in 2014. Rayonier is the world's top acetate producer, supplying a little more than half of the market.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed May 13, 2015 9:55 am

Carpet_pissr wrote:RYAM = Rayonier

Rayonier Advanced Materials manufactures cellulose specialties, or CS, for a variety of applications. It is the industry's biggest player, with about 30% of the 1.6 million-ton market. Acetate tow, used mainly in cigarette filters, is the company's top product, accounting for about 80% of the 479,000 tons of CS that Rayonier sold in 2014. Rayonier is the world's top acetate producer, supplying a little more than half of the market.

Didn't see it in the print edition. Online it doesn't get high marks either.

LawBeefaroni on 4/30 wrote:Bought GG $18 May calls. $1.21. I like big moves at open on earnings that I think will come back

Just sold the GG $18 May Calls at $1.60. So +32%. More a gold rally than an earnings overreaction but I'll take it with just a few days until expiration.

HLF and SUNE recovering a bit after yesterday, I need them to keep going down. This simply will not do.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed May 20, 2015 11:41 am

Catching up...

Lost on both HLF and SUNE puts. Should have sold on that nice Wed or Thurs dip. Ahh well. Both expired worthless when both stocks blew up on expiration Friday.

Bought 200 shares of OREX around $4.90, sold 2 June $5 calls against at $0.30. So either the 200 shares get called away and I make ~$0.40 or they don't and I get my cost basis down to around $4.60. So basically I need OREX to finish up between $4.60 and $5.30.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Wed May 20, 2015 12:25 pm

Your SUNE loss is my gain. Sorry Lawbeef.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed May 20, 2015 12:28 pm

pr0ner wrote:Your SUNE loss is my gain. Sorry Lawbeef.

Glad you were in. I should have done a strangle but I got cocky. Would have made a fair profit with a strangle.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Wed May 20, 2015 5:17 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:
pr0ner wrote:Your SUNE loss is my gain. Sorry Lawbeef.
Glad you were in. I should have done a strangle but I got cocky. Would have made a fair profit with a strangle.

A partnership I'm a member of has had a pretty decent number of SUNE shares for a while. The guy who runs it is rather bullish on their prospects.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed May 20, 2015 5:30 pm

pr0ner wrote: A partnership I'm a member of has had a pretty decent number of SUNE shares for a while. The guy who runs it is rather bullish on their prospects.

I do like them long term, I was just looking for a quick move.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Wed May 20, 2015 5:31 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:
pr0ner wrote: A partnership I'm a member of has had a pretty decent number of SUNE shares for a while. The guy who runs it is rather bullish on their prospects.
I do like them long term, I was just looking for a quick move.

Makes sense.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed May 20, 2015 5:32 pm

pr0ner wrote:
LawBeefaroni wrote:
pr0ner wrote: A partnership I'm a member of has had a pretty decent number of SUNE shares for a while. The guy who runs it is rather bullish on their prospects.
I do like them long term, I was just looking for a quick move.
Makes sense.

My problem is I got the move but I tried to predict the direction.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu May 21, 2015 12:55 pm

Lumber Liquidators

Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc.’s stock slide is a perfect example of two Wall Street trading maxims, that some big investors have been reminded of the hard way: Cheap can always get cheaper, and don’t try to catch a falling knife.

It’s easy to see why so-called “smart money” investors, a nickname often given to institutional, or professional investors with large resources, may have been tempted to take new positions in the troubled company. There is another Wall Street adage, said to be espoused by famed investor Warren Buffett, that one should be greedy when others are fearful, or buy when everyone is selling.

The stock had tumbled as much as 59% in less than two weeks through March 9, after a “60 Minutes” report alleged the company’s China-sourced laminated wood flooring contained dangerous levels of a known cancer-causing agent.

But after a brief bounce in late March, the stock renewed its decline in April, as the company’s attempt to dispel those concerns fell flat, and after it disclosed that the Justice Department was seeking criminal charges.

Of Lumber Liquidators top 50 shareholders, 14, or 28%, are those who added new positions in the company during the first quarter, according to data provided by FactSet.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu May 28, 2015 4:59 pm

Getting in front of ULTA this time. Sold June vertical calls ($170/$175 for those playing along). Long story short, I need it to stay below $171 for the duration.

They killed on earnings but it's only up $2-3 in after hours. We'll see tomorrow.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri May 29, 2015 9:42 am

Decay. Can buy back that ULTA vertical for around $0.30. Sold it for around $.80.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri May 29, 2015 10:32 am

Bought the call back for $0.17. Sold it for $1.60.

Have a sell in for $0.05 on the other call. Anything less than that and I'd rather sit on them.

Short story:
Yesterday: Sold $170 calls for $1.60. Bought $175 calls for $0.80. Net credit: $0.80 per.
Today: Bought $170 calls for $0.17. Trying to sell $175 calls for $0.05. Net debit: $0.17 per (or $0.12 if the $175 call sells).
Profit per option spread: $0.63 (or $0.68 if the $175 call sells at $0.05). No outlay (got paid $0.80 per for the spread) and my max risk was $420 on a ~20% out-of-the-money spread.

I'm getting all detailed because I'm just starting to learn these short-term vertical spreads and it helps me to talk them through.

FWIW, ULTA is down around $1.00 today at $155 and change. After hours yesterday it was up over $160 after earnings after closing around $156.5. Don't play in after hours or pre-market. That's where they slaughter retail investors.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:02 pm

Speaking of horrible pick'ems in Drazzil's thread, I can't win. FGP was nearly $29 when I bought a small amount. It proceeded to bottom at $22. It got up to around $25 again by the time I had money, so I bought a lot (for me) more.

Today they announced they were buying another company for nearly a billion dollars and boom goes the dynamite. Down to almost $24.

Everything I touch. I have the curse...

And this is why I can't just put money in to earn better than .09% interest from my money market savings.

I am in it for the long haul. I am in it for the long haul. I am in it for the long haul.

Edit:

Apparently FGP will also be increasing dividends from $.50 up to $.5125 per share per quarter. So I got that going for me.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 2:53 pm

Ugh. Guess what day I bought a bunch of FGP

That would be a few days before they announce they are releasing 6 million more shares and buying a company they are apparently can't turn into profit right way. My touch truly is magic. Everything I touch wilts within days after touching it.

My F continues to falter well below what I paid.

I'm even on SPY, though. I'm even up when you add two quarters of dividends. Fortunately, that's where most of my money is... Just not nearly enough to cover F and FGP.

On the bright side. So far it's been 7 months of watching and I'm in the red less than I lost when I met RM9, Trent Steel, ND, Malchoir and Octavious in AC. Of course, that was the weekend that left such a bad gambling taste in my mouth that I've mostly sworn off gambling. There was no give and take at all that weekend. There was no entertainment. I was Clark Griswald. Just giving them money hand after hand, roll after roll, pull after pull, waiting for my kick in the nuts to tell me it was over.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 3:49 pm

Just about a year ago to the day, they issued debt. This time they issue another $500M in debt and use a public offering of shares to raise an additional $140M-$160M in proceeds. Not sure what all that means.

If you're in a lot, there's a lot to digest in their updated prospectus. It covers the Bridger deal.

If you're not in a whole lot, autopilot until the June 9 earnings and conference call. Should be fun.

LordMortis wrote:That would be a few days before they announce they are releasing 6 million more shares and buying a company they are apparently can't turn into profit right way. My touch truly is magic. Everything I touch wilts within days after touching it.

I feel this way a lot. But FGP trades a few hundred thousand shares a day. It's probably a combined magic touch.

I sold an AMBA vertical call spread yesterday but I'm still in it so no postmortem yet.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 4:28 pm

I'm in a lot for me. I just can't believe I've been watching them for 7 months and then this deal surface right after I bought and tanks the stock more than 10% (much closer to 11%) off what I just paid for it in a matter of a couple of days. Just a couple of days later and I'd be all about buying at just over $22 instead of just under $25.

I am in it for the long haul. I am in it for the long haul. I am in it for the long haul.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Jun 30, 2015 8:34 am

I was up to down about $400 until last the tail end of last week, which is not small perentage of what I put personally put in the marked beyond my 401k. Now, not so much.

The good news is that it's a new month and for once I have money (It's good to have a house paid off) during what appears to be already entering a down cycle that I hope to be able time reasonably as opposed to being right at peak and watching my initial investment crash. We'll see if this works out for me.

The bad news is that work just put my annual match into my 401k on the 26th. It has since evaporated.

I think my next dumps will be into VTI and will possibly where I put all of my "spare" money for the remainder of the year unless I get a lot more spare money than I am budgeting for.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Jun 30, 2015 9:36 am

I lost on that AMBA spread. Bought for a loss on expiration Friday. On the very next Monday the stock dropped like 25%, I would have done well. Son of a bitch. I swear the markets know what I'm doing.