Rip wrote:El Guapo wrote:Rip wrote:El Guapo wrote:Pyperkub wrote:Rip wrote:
The truth begins to leak out.....
And
they are using the fight against ISIS as cover to round up the Kurds (at an 8-1 ratio):
Ankara's recent anti-terror sweep — which has resulted in the arrest of more than 800 suspected PKK members, compared with just over 100 suspected ISIS sympathizers — and the intensity of its bombing campaign in northern Iraq has made it clear that Turkey's main goal is not to prevent the consolidation of ISIS, but to halt the creation of an autonomous Kurdish state along its southern border.
And blowback — most recently in the form of attacks of security forces and the US consulate in Istanbul — is becoming increasingly likely.
Way to drive the Kurds into ISIS Turkey(s)!
It makes sense. The Kurds are far more of a threat to Turkey's territory than ISIS is. ISIS is nowhere near having the capacity to take on Turkey's military directly in an all-out war. Even if ISIS could get to that capacity (which would take decades) Turkey could reasonably count on NATO's support in fighting a defensive war against them.
However, if Turkey's Kurds declare an independent state in southeast Turkey, it's far less likely that Turkey would have international support for fighting that.
There is no reason Turkey shouldn't be able to get along with a Kurdish state in northern Iraq. They may find that they could reduce the tension with the Kurds in Turkey if there was and they could interact with it like an adult.
We force Israel's hand at how they deal with neighbors who they aren't fond of, no reason we should accept less from Turkey.
Turkey could get along ok with a Kurdish state in Northern Iraq. The danger for Turkey is that the Turkish Kurds would see that and get all agitated about how come they don't get that too. An independent Kurdistan in Northern Iraq would also face enormous internal pressure to support the Turkish Kurds as well, so they'd be more likely to (over time) supply them with money, arms, internal havens, etc.
If Turkey were inclined to behave like an adult, what they should do is allow the Kurds to break away and form their own state. But they are not inclined to do that.
And yes, we should pressure Turkey to treat the Kurds better. However, it is difficult to simultaneously ask for Turkey's assistance against ISIS and at the same time pressure them on the Kurds. The more we pressure Turkey on the Kurds, the less inclined Turkey will be to actively fight ISIS. To some extent we need to choose between the two.
It is also difficult to ask for the Kurds assistance (which we have been actually getting unlike assistance from Turkey) against ISIS and at the same time ignore the transgression by the Turks.
We don't need to choose between the two, any more than we need to choose between Israel and the Arabs/Persians.
We need to make it clear to both that we have expectations of conduct else we are likely to kick them both in the teach and to help neither.
Sure, of course. If we refuse to do anything about the Turkish attacks on the Kurds then I imagine that would make our relations with the Kurds difficult. Though of course, the Kurds (unlike the Turks) don't really have the option of not fighting ISIS, since ISIS is attacking them.
Ultimately we should try to work with both and reconcile them, but they have fundamental differences that are not based on misunderstanding, so that may not in the end be possible. One possible outcome is that we restrain the Turkish attacks on the Kurds somewhat but not entirely.
Like, if we do what you say and "make it clear to both that we have expectations of conduct else we are likely to kick them both in the teach and to help neither." then (aside from figuring out where "the teach" is) Turkey may well just go ahead and ignore our expectations and keep on bombing the Kurds. If we then help neither, that's fine with Turkey (since they're mostly happy with letting ISIS be while bombing the Kurds anyway) but not at all fine with the Kurds (since Turkey is, you know, bombing them). So is that materially different than siding with Turkey?
And it's not really comparable to Israel / Arabs. We don't need to choose between Israel and the Arab states over time, but to some degree we do need to choose between the competing interests of Israel and an Arab state(s) when those parties are actively at war.
Black Lives Matter.