Holman wrote:This would be good news for Democrats, obviously, but it points to something that could really sour the entire media-driven process: the billionaire spoiler who can hold an entire party hostage.
My memory could be off but isn't that how a Clinton got elected the first time?
The consensus seems to be that Perot didn't cost GHW Bush enough votes to tip the balance. I believe I've read that Perot voters fairly evenly cast their other votes for Republican and Democratic governors, senators, and representatives.
Trump would pull almost entirely from Republican voters if he ran independently.
The effect of Ross Perot's candidacy has been a contentious point of debate for many years. In the ensuing months after the election, various Republicans asserted that Perot had acted as a spoiler, enough to the detriment of Bush to lose him the election. While many disaffected conservatives may have voted for Ross Perot to protest Bush's tax increase, further examination of the Perot vote in the Election Night exit polls not only showed that Perot siphoned votes nearly equally among Bush and Clinton, but of the voters who cited Bush's broken "No New Taxes" pledge as "very important," two thirds voted for Bill Clinton. A mathematical look at the voting numbers reveals that Bush would have had to win 12.2% of Perot's 18.8% of the vote, 65% of Perot's support base, to earn a majority of the vote, and would have needed to win nearly every state Clinton won by less than five percentage points. Furthermore, Perot was most popular in states that strongly favored either Clinton or Bush, limiting his real electoral impact for either candidate. He gained relatively little support in the Southern states and happened to have the best showing in states with few electoral votes. Perot appealed to disaffected voters all across the political spectrum who had grown weary of the two-party system. NAFTA played a role in Perot's support, and Perot voters were relatively moderate on hot button social issues.
Last edited by Holman on Thu Jul 23, 2015 4:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
GreenGoo wrote:
To them he's what's good about capitalism and the American dream and the lay person's idea of success.
Trumped-up
adj.
Fradulently devised; fabricated:
Concocted with intent to deceive
Trump
verb
(in bridge, whist, and similar card games) play a trump on (a card of another suit), having no cards of the suit led.
How wonderfully appropriate that we call him Trump.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
A local border patrol union pulled out of events involving Donald Trump on Thursday as the Republican presidential contender charged ahead with plans to visit the Mexican border to highlight his hardline stance on illegal immigration.
Patrol agents had planned to accompany Trump to the border and hold a meeting with him but canceled after consultations with their national union, the National Border Patrol Council, said Hector Garza, president of Local 2455.
The Trump campaign said in a statement he would go to the border anyway in the afternoon, "despite the great danger," and blamed the snub on the union's superiors "who do not want people to know how bad it is on the border — every bit as bad as Mr. Trump has been saying."
...
Garza said the union opted out of the Trump visit "after careful consideration of all the factors involved in this event and communicating with members of the National Border Patrol Council." He said agents had intended to give Trump and the accompanying press a "boots-on-the-ground perspective" at the border.
Holman wrote:This would be good news for Democrats, obviously, but it points to something that could really sour the entire media-driven process: the billionaire spoiler who can hold an entire party hostage.
My memory could be off but isn't that how a Clinton got elected the first time?
Something similar happened, but it wasn't the reason for why Clinton won:
A comprehensive national exit poll found that Perot voters were divided almost evenly on their second choice and that Clinton — in a two-way race — would still have beaten Bush by 5.8 million votes (his actual margin was 5.3 million in initial ’92 tally).
Holman wrote:
Trump would pull almost entirely from Republican voters if he ran independently.
According to this poll, he *might* pull as much as a quarter of his votes from Clinton when Trump is added to a poll between her and Bush (It's not exactly clear, but at least 4% of voters moved away from Clinton and either to undecided or Trump (or I suppose there's a possibility that they moved to Bush - some people are weird)
In a general election trial heat, Clinton leads Bush, the GOP fundraising leader, by a slight 50-44 percent among registered voters. But with Trump as an independent candidate that goes to 46-30-20 percent, Clinton-Bush-Trump – with Trump drawing support disproportionately from Bush, turning a 6-point Clinton advantage into 16 points.
Apparently Dennis Rodman has endorsed Trump for POTUS and Trump has thanked him for that support. What a time to be alive.
“@realDonaldTrump has been a great friend for many years,” he wrote. “We don’t need another politician, we need a businessman like Mr. Trump! Trump 2016.” Trump responded to the endorsement less than two hours later, writing, “Thank you @DennisRodman. It’s time to #MakeAmericaGreatAgain! I hope you are doing well!”
My blog (mostly photos): Fort Ephemera - My Flickr Photostream
“You only get one sunrise and one sunset a day, and you only get so many days on the planet. A good photographer does the math and doesn’t waste either.” ―Galen Rowell
Enough wrote:Apparently Dennis Rodman has endorsed Trump for POTUS and Trump has thanked him for that support. What a time to be alive.
“@realDonaldTrump has been a great friend for many years,” he wrote. “We don’t need another politician, we need a businessman like Mr. Trump! Trump 2016.” Trump responded to the endorsement less than two hours later, writing, “Thank you @DennisRodman. It’s time to #MakeAmericaGreatAgain! I hope you are doing well!”
Hmmm, President Trump could reestablish relations with NK and appoint Rodman as the first Ambassador....
Rodman as Secretary of State couldn't be much worse than Rodham.
"There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences." — P. J. O'Rourke
"A lie can run round the world before the truth has got its boots on." -Terry Pratchett, The Truth "The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to those who think they've found it." -Terry Pratchett, Monstrous Regiment
I actually suspect that The Donald would be perfectly happy as a Senator. All the insider trades he could handle, with no repercussions. Not like that Ted Cruz feller who keeps shutting down the government whilst tilting at windmills.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Pyperkub wrote:I actually suspect that The Donald would be perfectly happy as a Senator. All the insider trades he could handle, with no repercussions. Not like that Ted Cruz feller who keeps shutting down the government whilst tilting at windmills.
He would need a solidly reactionary base to get elected.
The Honorable Donald J. Trump of... where? Alaska? Kansas? Trumptucky, America's newest, smallest, Reddest, and blingiest state?
Cohen, who is one of Trump's top lawyers, threatened to sue the Daily Beast reporter and ruin the reporter's life.
"I will make sure that you and I meet one day while we're in the courthouse. And I will take you for every penny you still don't have. And I will come after your Daily Beast and everybody else that you possibly know," Cohen said, according to the Daily Beast. "So I'm warning you, tread very f---ing lightly, because what I'm going to do to you is going to be f---ing disgusting. You understand me?"
The people supporting him in the polls are like the victims of an abusive relationship. I hope they get out before something tragic happens, but until they realize that the person they love would walk over their dead body to get a Snapple, there's not much that can be done for them.
“It is true,” Cohen added. “You cannot rape your spouse. And there’s very clear case law.”
Ivana Trump’s assertion of “rape” came in a deposition—part of the early ’90s divorce case between the Trumps, and revealed in the 1993 book Lost Tycoon: The Many Lives of Donald J. Trump.
The book, by former Texas Monthly and Newsweek reporter Harry Hurt III, described a harrowing scene. After a painful scalp reduction surgery to remove a bald spot, Donald Trump confronted his then-wife, who had previously used the same plastic surgeon.
“Your fucking doctor has ruined me!” Trump cried.
What followed was a “violent assault,” according to Lost Tycoon. Donald held back Ivana’s arms and began to pull out fistfuls of hair from her scalp, as if to mirror the pain he felt from his own operation. He tore off her clothes and unzipped his pants.
“Then he jams his penis inside her for the first time in more than sixteen months. Ivana is terrified… It is a violent assault,” Hurt writes. “According to versions she repeats to some of her closest confidantes, ‘he raped me.’”
Trump's own lawyer seems confused by the marital rape laws.
"The world is suffering more today from the good people who want to mind other men's business than it is from the bad people who are willing to let everybody look after their own individual affairs." - Clarence Darrow
Trump’s lawyer then changed tactics, lobbing insults and threatening a lawsuit if a story was published.
“I will make sure that you and I meet one day while we’re in the courthouse. And I will take you for every penny you still don’t have. And I will come after your Daily Beast and everybody else that you possibly know,” Cohen said. “So I’m warning you, tread very fucking lightly, because what I’m going to do to you is going to be fucking disgusting. You understand me?”
“You write a story that has Mr. Trump’s name in it, with the word ‘rape,’ and I’m going to mess your life up… for as long as you’re on this frickin’ planet… you’re going to have judgments against you, so much money, you’ll never know how to get out from underneath it,” he added.
Terrific fit for Trump - I can see why he hired the guy.
When the lawyer, Elizabeth Beck, asked for a medical break, Mr. Trump and his lawyers objected, demanding that the deposition continue. Ms. Beck said it was urgent — she needed to pump breast milk for her 3-month-old daughter, and she took the pump out to make her point.
Mr. Trump erupted.
“You’re disgusting,” he told Ms. Beck, in a remark that is not disputed by either side. He then walked out of the room, ending the testimony for the day.
I guess there's a few different ways to spin that, but this seems like they're trying to destroy any chance women under the age of 50 will vote for him.
Did we talk about the "If Hillary Clinton couldn't satisfy her own husband, how can she expect to satisfy America?" tweet yet?
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
I can understand being uncomfortable, but he just reacts like a dick to everything. Most people without an ego that size would just let the judge or other authority figure know that they were uncomfortable with it. That or just tell her that it does so. But jumping up and calling her disgusting? Christ, he continually comes across as a 9 year old with parents who don't care what he does.
RunningMn9 wrote:Did we talk about the "If Hillary Clinton couldn't satisfy her own husband, how can she expect to satisfy America?" tweet yet?
He's churning this stuff out at an ungodly pace. We're only human!
hepcat wrote:That's even outside my comfort zone to joke about.
I'm a lot more comfortable joking about it than trying to make it an actual campaign issue.
Hey, it could be worse. It could just be a poster simply throwing out unflattering picture after unflattering picture of one of the candidates as a campaign issue.
hepcat wrote:That's even outside my comfort zone to joke about.
I'm a lot more comfortable joking about it than trying to make it an actual campaign issue.
Hey, it could be worse. It could just be a poster simply throwing out unflattering picture after unflattering picture of one of the candidates as a campaign issue.
Don't look at me, I didn't make them unflattering.
But you don't deny that one of your issues with Hillary is the way she looks?
edit: although to be fair, I've compared Ted Cruz to Snidely Whiplash in the past. And I've made fun of Trump's hair. So I've got very little room to talk.
Last edited by hepcat on Wed Jul 29, 2015 2:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
