The Global Warming Thread

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 2:44 pm

Didn't I see an article this morning in my google newsfeed about arctic ice recovering a third of it's mass this year?

Not seeing anything now, so maybe I imagined it.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 2:48 pm

Register

The Arctic ice cap has not, contrary to the predictions of climate alarmists, completely disappeared: in fact it has been growing rapidly, increasing by an entire third just in 2013 and more since.
...
The Arctic ice has indeed cheered up a bit, particularly in thickness of the key areas north of Greenland and Canada, which had been getting nearly as thin as the stuff north of Siberia - which regularly breaks up enough to let ships through, though they generally have to be escorted by icebreakers. Thus actual ice volumes are looking especially good.

Arctic ice has also stabilised in area, which is a marked change from much of last decade when the northern sea ice extent over time seemed to be in free fall. (That said the drop was much less than normal seasonal variation, as can be seen in these graphs from Cryosphere Today.)
...
This growth, combined with the recent bounce-back in the Arctic, means that the world's total area of sea ice today is little different to that seen thirty years ago and more, when people first started monitoring it.

But that's not changing many world views in the climatology departments.

"The long-term trend of the ice volume is downwards and the long-term trend of the temperatures in the Arctic is upwards and this finding doesn't give us any reason to disbelieve that - as far as we can tell it's just one anomalous year," Tilling reassured the Beeb.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 2:49 pm

Deutsche Welle

Also Tuesday, the NOAA said that sea ice in the Arctic had been measured at 906,000 square kilometers (350,000 square miles), or 7.7 percent less than the average for the period 1981 to 2010.

"This was the third smallest June extent since records began in 1979," NOAA said.

It's all in how you want to spin it.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Tue Aug 04, 2015 3:36 pm

Glaciers melting faster than ever:

The world’s glaciers are melting at an unprecedented and alarming rate, warns a new study.

Scientists compiled tens of thousands of observations, some going all the way back to the 1600s. They compared those records to modern measurements and aerial and satellite images.

“The observed glaciers currently lose between half a meter and one meter of its ice thickness every year. This is two to three times more than the corresponding average of the 20th century,”...

...In the first part of the 21st Century, glaciers melted faster than at any point in the last 165 years, and possibly any point in recorded history.

The researchers say this is a global phenomenon.

“Exact measurements of this ice loss are reported from a few hundred glaciers only,” Zemp noted to CBS News. “However, these results are qualitatively confirmed from field and satellite-based observations for tens of thousands of glaciers around the world.”

Zemp warned that even if worldwide measures to prevent global warming were put in place today, it wouldn’t be enough to stop the glaciers from melting.

“These glaciers will suffer further ice loss, even if climate remains stable,” Zemp told CBS News.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Aug 14, 2015 8:57 am

El Nino may be most powerful on record

El Nino is gathering strength in the Pacific Ocean and could become the most powerful on record -- and that could be good news for Chicagoans already bracing for winter.

A strong El Nino could mean above-average temperatures and below-normal precipitation from December through February. The last time it was this strong was during the winter of 1997-98, and that ended up being the seventh-warmest on record for Chicago, according to the National Weather Service.

The average temperature between December and February was 33.2 degrees, and snowfall for the entire season was recorded at 29.6, 7.4 inches below normal.

This season's El Nino could be even stronger. A weather service blogger has already dubbed it "El Nino Bruce Lee" for the martial arts star.
...
According to a briefing issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, sea surface temperatures and wind currents indicate "a significant and strengthening El Nino" that will peak late in the fall and early in the winter.

The prediction center said there is a greater than 90 percent chance that El Nino will continue through the winter and an 85 percent chance it will last into early spring.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Fri Aug 14, 2015 11:08 am

Global warming increases 'food shocks' threat

In 2010-11, a heat wave in Russia led to the country's worst drought in 40 years, decimating the grain harvest and leading indirectly, to food riots in North African countries as prices of bread rose rapidly.

Now researchers from the US and the UK have analysed the chances of extreme weather events causing these types of food shocks as the world warms over the coming century. Looking at the production of rice, wheat, maize and soybeans, the scientists found that the the chances of a one in 100-year production disruption is likely to increase to a one in 30-year event by 2040. From 2070 onward, they estimate that severe shocks, which could see global production drop by 10%, could be happening in seven out of ten years.

"It is very difficult to characterise these extreme events and their frequency, but what we do see quite clearly is that events that are very rare in the present day are becoming more frequent in the future," said Kirsty Lewis, one of the authors, from the UK's Met Office. "The most extreme events of the future are likely to become more intense, so potentially larger shocks and more frequent shocks."

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:55 pm

July was Earth's hottest month on record, NOAA says

July was the hottest month on Earth since records began, averaging 16.6 C (61.9 F), according to US scientists. That is 0.08 degrees higher than the previous record, set in July 1998 - a significant margin in weather records. Scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in a report that they expect 2015 to be the hottest year on record. Nine of the 10 hottest months since records began in 1880 have occurred since 2005, the NOAA report said. Scientists say global climate change and the impacts of the El Nino weather phenomenon are behind the record temperatures. The first seven months of 2015 have already set an all-time temperature record for the period.

"The world is warming. It is continuing to warm. That is being shown time and time again in our data," said Jake Crouch, physical scientist at NOAA's National Centres for Environmental Information. "Now that we are fairly certain that 2015 will be the warmest year on record, it is time to start looking at what are the impacts of that? What does that mean for people on the ground?" Mr Crouch said.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:07 pm

Carbon credits undercut climate change actions says report

The vast majority of carbon credits generated by Russia and Ukraine did not represent cuts in emissions, according to a new study. The authors say that offsets created under a UN scheme "significantly undermined" efforts to tackle climate change. The credits may have increased emissions by 600 million tonnes. In some projects, chemicals known to warm the climate were created and then destroyed to claim cash.

As a result of political horse trading at UN negotiations on climate change, countries like Russia and the Ukraine were allowed to create carbon credits from activities like curbing coal waste fires, or restricting gas emissions from petroleum production. Under the UN scheme, called Joint Implementation, they then were able to sell those credits to the European Union's carbon market. Companies bought the offsets rather than making their own more expensive, emissions cuts.

But this study, from the Stockholm Environment Institute, says the vast majority of Russian and Ukrainian credits were in fact, "hot air" - no actual emissions were reduced. They looked at a random sample of 60 projects and found that 73% of the offsets generated didn't meet the key criteria of "additionality". This means that these projects would have happened anyway without any carbon credit finance. "Some early projects were of good quality, but in 2011-2012, numerous projects were registered in Ukraine and Russia which had started long before and were clearly not motivated by carbon credits," said Vladyslav Zhezherin, a co-author of the study. "This was like printing money."

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:37 pm

Max Peck wrote:July was Earth's hottest month on record, NOAA says
July was the hottest month on Earth since records began, averaging 16.6 C (61.9 F), according to US scientists. That is 0.08 degrees higher than the previous record, set in July 1998 - a significant margin in weather records. Scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in a report that they expect 2015 to be the hottest year on record. Nine of the 10 hottest months since records began in 1880 have occurred since 2005, the NOAA report said. Scientists say global climate change and the impacts of the El Nino weather phenomenon are behind the record temperatures. The first seven months of 2015 have already set an all-time temperature record for the period.

"The world is warming. It is continuing to warm. That is being shown time and time again in our data," said Jake Crouch, physical scientist at NOAA's National Centres for Environmental Information. "Now that we are fairly certain that 2015 will be the warmest year on record, it is time to start looking at what are the impacts of that? What does that mean for people on the ground?" Mr Crouch said.

How come it's never December or January that's the hottest month on record? Also apparently as much as it doesn't feel like it, I can still thank the polar vortex. While it's been sucky and muggy her in the great lakes region. It was suckier and hotter as recently as three or four years ago.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:26 pm

LordMortis wrote:
Max Peck wrote:July was Earth's hottest month on record, NOAA says
July was the hottest month on Earth since records began, averaging 16.6 C (61.9 F), according to US scientists. That is 0.08 degrees higher than the previous record, set in July 1998 - a significant margin in weather records. Scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in a report that they expect 2015 to be the hottest year on record. Nine of the 10 hottest months since records began in 1880 have occurred since 2005, the NOAA report said. Scientists say global climate change and the impacts of the El Nino weather phenomenon are behind the record temperatures. The first seven months of 2015 have already set an all-time temperature record for the period.

"The world is warming. It is continuing to warm. That is being shown time and time again in our data," said Jake Crouch, physical scientist at NOAA's National Centres for Environmental Information. "Now that we are fairly certain that 2015 will be the warmest year on record, it is time to start looking at what are the impacts of that? What does that mean for people on the ground?" Mr Crouch said.
How come it's never December or January that's the hottest month on record? Also apparently as much as it doesn't feel like it, I can still thank the polar vortex. While it's been sucky and muggy her in the great lakes region. It was suckier and hotter as recently as three or four years ago.

Because the Earth's orbit isn't a perfect circle.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:52 pm

Pyperkub wrote: Because the Earth's orbit isn't a perfect circle.

And we're tilted the wrong way (I think). (for the record, I thought about responding like this but then passed. Pyperkub was good enough to follow through though).

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:29 pm

GreenGoo wrote:
Pyperkub wrote: Because the Earth's orbit isn't a perfect circle.
And we're tilted the wrong way (I think). (for the record, I thought about responding like this but then passed. Pyperkub was good enough to follow through though).

These responses are off to me.

Two things:
1) The planet is closest to the sun in January (something I read said 3% closer than in July). Now why is earth (not, the northern hemisphere) the hottest in July?

2) What does the tilt have to do with the average temperature on the planet? The tilt accounts for the seasons and why it's hot in the northern hemisphere in July and not January, but seems like it should be irrelevant to the average temperature on the planet.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:40 pm

I have an assumption but no science. My assumption is that we have more land mass in the northern hemisphere is and either through land mass or people/pollution, we heat up the earth when the northern hemisphere is closer to the sun. But that's totally me talking out my ass and being angry at hot summers without the benefit of tempered winters.

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:44 pm

that makes a certain kind of sense and would make GreenGoo right, even if on accident.

Pyperkub, however, appears to remain in left field.

Malificent · Post by **Malificent** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 6:09 pm

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2015/08/15/hottest-month/

But it turns out (as was quickly pointed out by a blog commenter) earth is actually hottest in July. That’s because when the southern hemisphere is tilted toward the sun in January, all that solar heat mainly strikes ocean, which dominates the southern hemisphere rather than land. The thermal inertia of the oceans is much greater than that of the land masses, so it heats up more slowly, and just doesn’t get that hot even at the peak of summer.

I feel like I should have used some sort of Isgrimnur tag or something.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 6:53 pm

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:18 pm

coopasonic wrote:that makes a certain kind of sense and would make GreenGoo right, even if on accident. Pyperkub, however, appears to remain in left field.

I assumed he cared and was talking about the temperature at his geographical location. I'm not sure why he'd care about the planet's overall temperature during any particular month.

em2nought · Post by **em2nought** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:57 pm

Maybe we just need to cover an ocean or two with those reservoir shade balls from California.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:01 pm

Pyperkub wrote:
LordMortis wrote:How come it's never December or January that's the hottest month on record?
Because the Earth's orbit isn't a perfect circle.

Well...

[edit:]Oh, I see this was covered.

How about whether the Northern or Southern hemishphere has more susceptible-to-temperature-fluctuation landmass? When the Northern hemisphere is tilted towards the sun, we gather the heat (despite being at apogee).

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:53 am

That explains why Obama wants to move North America south -- playing right into China's hands, as usual.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:55 pm

Kraken wrote:That explains why Obama wants to move North America south -- playing right into China's hands, as usual.

IRAN, duh! They're a desert. They *like* global warming.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Mon Aug 31, 2015 8:35 pm

I find it really interesting that most of the documented sea level rises are in the middle of the oceans.

NASA just released results from several satellite observations going back to 1992. Those 23 years of data show that the oceans of the planet have risen substantially in that time: over 6 centimeters (2.5 inches) on average, with some places on Earth seeing more than 22 cm (9 inches)!

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Aug 31, 2015 8:58 pm

It's not global warming, the moon is getting more massive.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:16 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:It's not global warming, the moon is getting more massive.

And mars is helping

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Tue Sep 01, 2015 12:02 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:It's not global warming, the moon is getting more massive.

That's not a moon...

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Sep 01, 2015 12:03 pm

We must Kill the Moon space creature egg...

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Tue Sep 01, 2015 12:43 pm

Obama weighs in strongly on global warming.

President Barack Obama challenged fellow world leaders in unusually blunt language Monday to act boldly on climate change or "condemn our children to a world they will no longer have the capacity to repair."

em2nought · Post by **em2nought** » Fri Sep 04, 2015 12:13 am

I planted an acre of trees. I wonder if I can get some financing under the Kyoto protocol?

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... ate-change

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Fri Sep 04, 2015 12:19 am

Pyperkub wrote:I find it really interesting that most of the documented sea level rises are in the middle of the oceans.

NASA just released results from several satellite observations going back to 1992. Those 23 years of data show that the oceans of the planet have risen substantially in that time: over 6 centimeters (2.5 inches) on average, with some places on Earth seeing more than 22 cm (9 inches)!

As all the oceans are conencted how is it possible that some get 2" and others 9"?

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:54 pm

I feel like reading the article would answer that question.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:23 pm

RunningMn9 wrote:I feel like reading the article would answer that question.

You will be lucky if he even reads your reply.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:27 pm

Unagi wrote:
RunningMn9 wrote:I feel like reading the article would answer that question.
You will be lucky if he even reads your reply.

I'll give him a hint - non-uniform thermal expansion and the fact that the oceans aren't a still pond.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:28 pm

Blame it on the interns.

Hard to find good staffers these days, let alone ones that will take the 5th to protect you.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 11:50 am

Rip wrote:Blame it on the interns.

Hard to find good staffers these days, let alone ones that will take the 5th to protect you.

Wrong thread I think. ..

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Thu Sep 10, 2015 4:47 pm

http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/09/10/ ... -year-low/

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Mon Sep 14, 2015 5:25 pm

Gov. Jerry Brown lays the smackdown on Ben Carson's ignorance:

Dear Dr. Carson,

I hope you've enjoyed your visit to the Golden State. It's come to my attention that while you were here you said the following regarding climate science:

"I know there are a lot of people who say 'overwhelming science,' but then when you ask them to show the overwhelming evidence, they never show it…There is no overwhelming science that the things that are going on are man-caused and not naturally caused. Gimmie a break."

Please find enclosed a flash drive with the complete United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "Synthesis Report," the concluding installment of the Fifth Assessment Report, published earlier this year. This report assessed over 30,000 scientific papers and was written by more than 800 scientists, representing 80 countries around the world, who definitively concluded that: "…human influence on the climate system is clear and growing, with impacts observed across all continents and oceans."

This is just one of the thousands of reports authored by the world's top scientists on the subject, including a study published just last month by Columbia University, University of Idaho and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies scientists that found climate change has intensified California's drought. These aren't just words. The consequences are real.

Please use your considerable intelligence to review this material. Climate change is much bigger than partisan politics.

Sincerely,

Jerry Brown

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:23 pm

Nice.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Mon Sep 14, 2015 8:32 pm

But that's just like, your opinion, man.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:12 pm

We'll sue!

A coalition of 24 states and a coal mining company filed lawsuits Friday to challenge the most significant piece of President Obama’s environmental agenda, his signature climate change rule for power plants.

The litigants accuse the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of going far beyond the authority Congress granted to it by ordering a significant transformation of states’ electricity generation, moving away from fossil fuels like coal and toward lower-carbon sources like wind and solar power.

They are asking the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit to overturn the rule. They also want the court to immediately stop its implementation while it works its way through the courts.

West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R), who is leading the legal fight against the plan, called it “the single most onerous and illegal regulations that we’ve seen coming out of D.C. in a long time.”
...
The climate rule, dubbed the Clean Power Plan, seeks a 32 percent cut in the power sector’s carbon emissions by 2030, compared with 2005 levels. Each state has been assigned a specific emissions goal based on its unique circumstances, with flexibility in how the goals are met.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Tue Oct 27, 2015 10:15 am

Bikini islanders seek US refuge as sea levels threaten homes

About 1,000 Bikini islanders have applied to relocate to the United States as rising seas threaten their adopted home. The residents were moved from their Pacific atoll as result of atomic bomb tests in the 1940s. But their new home, on another of the Marshall Islands, is struggling against huge tides and increasing storms. The islanders have now asked Washington to change the terms of a trust fund to allow them settle in the US. In 1946 several hundred islanders were moved from Bikini Atoll by the US government, which wanted to test atomic weapons on the remote atoll. Some 23 nuclear tests were conducted including the huge Bravo hydrogen bomb, the largest weapon detonated at that time by the US.

The islanders moved to a nearby island in the Marshall chain called Kili in 1948. Under an agreement with the US, a resettlement trust fund was eventually established to help the Bikini residents. This would pay for construction of homes within the Marshall Islands. But now the islanders say that their homes are being swamped by the increased ingress of sea water during king tides. There was widespread flooding in 2011 and again this year. Salt is also creeping up from beneath Kili, threatening agriculture and water supplies. In the early part of this year the island's runway was entirely flooded, cutting off the residents.

"The people of Bikini came back to us and asked us to take this proposal to the US, to request the resettlement trust fund be used to settle people in the US not just the Marshall Islands," said Tony de Brum, Foreign Minister of the Marshall Islands. "We have not seen the final text of the legislation but the request that went in was on the basis of Kili being uninhabitable because of climate change."

The US Department of the Interior is supporting the islanders and is now proposing legislation in Congress that would change the terms of the resettlement trust.