tesla motors

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Fri Apr 01, 2016 9:54 am

LordMortis wrote:
Zaxxon wrote:It's before any incentives. Those reserving today may or may not have any incentives to receive.
That and the limited options for me to put money down were the biggest turn offs for me. How come you couldn't make downpayment by internet and see what your number in line was?

You can do it online now. I'm sure they wanted the press of people lining up. Not like this has ever happened before for a vehicle.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Fri Apr 01, 2016 10:17 am

Zaxxon wrote:
LordMortis wrote:
Zaxxon wrote:It's before any incentives. Those reserving today may or may not have any incentives to receive.
That and the limited options for me to put money down were the biggest turn offs for me. How come you couldn't make downpayment by internet and see what your number in line was?
You can do it online now. I'm sure they wanted the press of people lining up.

It worked on me since internet reservations were delayed by a day, and I figured wasting a day is worth a potential $7,500 rebate. Plus I remember trying to sign up for Ultima Online...

telcta · Post by **telcta** » Fri Apr 01, 2016 12:09 pm

I'm in. I reserved online this morning. Outside of not having the reservation payment to invest, there's no downside to getting a place in line. I don't mind a long wait. I have some logistical issues to figure out how to power that thing in my garage, but even up to the point where my car is ready to be built, I can still cancel my reservation.

I'm curious to see how the Federal Tax credit will shake out during production and that Conn. would still have funds available for their EV rebate.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Fri Apr 01, 2016 12:16 pm

180k reservations and counting. Looks like Tesla expects an average transaction price of $42k with options. Good to see that as I've seen some articles speculating that the 'one you want' will be $50k.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Fri Apr 01, 2016 1:42 pm

Zaxxon wrote:180k reservations and counting. Looks like Tesla expects an average transaction price of $42k with options. Good to see that as I've seen some articles speculating that the 'one you want' will be $50k.

Since the supercharger comes standard, the only option I am interested in at this point is the 300 mile radius.

I am planning to get a Powerwall, but may do that prior to release to increase my solar storage.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Fri Apr 01, 2016 1:56 pm

I will likely spring for AWD, Autopilot convenience features and possibly (but not likely) a larger battery depending on price/range add/peppiness increase.

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:08 pm

I am so enamored with the Model 3, gorgeous car and true make America great again engineering. Elon Musk isn't the industrialist we deserve, but he sure as hell is the one we need.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Sat Apr 02, 2016 6:37 pm

250k as of this morning.

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Sat Apr 02, 2016 8:05 pm

Zaxxon wrote:250k as of this morning.

How much will his retirement spaceship cost?

If Trump becomes president, I hope this car isn't counting on parts from Japan or Korea...

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Wed May 11, 2016 10:13 am

I actually saw a Tesla on the interstate over the weekend, far from civilization on what could only be described as a transit between two distant cities. So it can be done! But...

Spoiler:

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Wed May 11, 2016 11:13 am

Zaxxon wrote:180k reservations and counting. Looks like Tesla expects an average transaction price of $42k with options. Good to see that as I've seen some articles speculating that the 'one you want' will be $50k.

$42K? Wow. Amazing how they have gotten the prices down. That's quite a bit less than I paid for our minivan!

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Wed May 11, 2016 11:24 am

Carpet_pissr wrote:
Zaxxon wrote:180k reservations and counting. Looks like Tesla expects an average transaction price of $42k with options. Good to see that as I've seen some articles speculating that the 'one you want' will be $50k.
$42K? Wow. Amazing how they have gotten the prices down. That's quite a bit less than I paid for our minivan!

Must be a pretty well equipped minivan. It's significantly more than I paid for my wanna-be-lux sports sedan. Of course I am still driving it because it simply can't be replaced for the same price now.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Wed May 11, 2016 11:59 am

A couple of friends of mine test drove a $130K Model S last week. It was a life changing experience for them. Driving on NJ highways with AutoPilot engaged and their test of the Ludicrous Mode has made them doubt their Model 3 reservations. Now they are trying to figure out how to swing a Model S P90D.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jun 22, 2016 6:39 am

Pyper mentioned it in OIC: Tesla has made a bid for Solar City. About a 25% premium. SCTY up about 20%, TSLA down around 12%.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Wed Jun 22, 2016 7:08 am

This is one of those things I felt Musk would try to do at some point, but man I do not like the timing. Couldn't have waited till after Model 3 is out?

Though getting SCTY for less than half its ATH is a possible steal, I guess. We shall see.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jun 22, 2016 3:52 pm

Zaxxon wrote:This is one of those things I felt Musk would try to do at some point, but man I do not like the timing. Couldn't have waited till after Model 3 is out?

Though getting SCTY for less than half its ATH is a possible steal, I guess. We shall see.

Well, it's certainly good for Musk. He's Solar City's chairman and it's largest shareholder. The deal means he'll get well over over half a billion dollars for his shares. I think TSLA shareholders are rightly a bit annoyed. But Solar City's former CFO (resigned at the end of 2015) is of the Tesla board so...

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jun 22, 2016 4:06 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:Well, it's certainly good for Musk. He's Solar City's chairman and it's largest shareholder. The deal means he'll get well over over half a billion dollars for his shares. I think TSLA shareholders are rightly a bit annoyed. But Solar City's former CFO (resigned at the end of 2015) is of the Tesla board so...

Isn't that how all the capitalists do it? Even if you don't learn about Robber Baron's directly, that's what we learned in Rail Road Tycoon, right?

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Wed Jun 22, 2016 4:22 pm

Uh, the drop TSLA far outweighs the jump in SCTY for him. He owns far more TSLA. Longer term it may well turn out well for him. Not today, though.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Wed Jun 22, 2016 4:31 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:Well, it's certainly good for Musk. He's Solar City's chairman and it's largest shareholder. The deal means he'll get well over over half a billion dollars for his shares.

My maths tell me that he lost about $620M in paper wealth today. I believe he owns 19% of TSLA and 22% of SCTY. But there are a helluva lot more shares of TSLA out there.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Thu Jun 30, 2016 7:07 pm

U.S. opens investigation into Tesla after fatal crash in Autopilot mode

The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said on Thursday it is opening a preliminary investigation into 25,000 Tesla Motors (TSLA.O) Model S cars after a driver of one of the vehicles was killed using the Autopilot mode.

The agency said the crash came in a 2015 Model S operating with automated driving systems engaged, and "calls for an examination of the design and performance of any driving aids in use at the time of the crash." The investigation is the first step before the agency could seek to order a recall if it finds the vehicles were unsafe.

NHTSA said in a statement the driver of the 2015 Model S was killed while operating in Autopilot mode in a crash on May 7 in Williston, Florida. NHTSA said preliminary reports indicate the vehicle crash occurred when a tractor-trailer made a left turn in front of the Tesla at an intersection.

Tesla said in a blog post that this is the first known fatality in just over 130 million miles where Autopilot was activated.

Tesla said "neither Autopilot nor the driver noticed the white side of the tractor trailer against a brightly lit sky, so the brake was not applied."

The company said "the high ride height of the trailer combined with its positioning across the road and the extremely rare circumstances of the impact caused the Model S to pass under the trailer, with the bottom of the trailer impacting the windshield of the Model S."

Tesla said that "Autopilot is getting better all the time, but it is not perfect and still requires the driver to remain alert. Nonetheless, when used in conjunction with driver oversight, the data is unequivocal that Autopilot reduces driver workload and results in a statistically significant improvement in safety when compared to purely manual driving."

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:45 pm

Zaxxon wrote:Uh, the drop TSLA far outweighs the jump in SCTY for him. He owns far more TSLA. Longer term it may well turn out well for him. Not today, though.

RunningMn9 wrote:
LawBeefaroni wrote:Well, it's certainly good for Musk. He's Solar City's chairman and it's largest shareholder. The deal means he'll get well over over half a billion dollars for his shares.
My maths tell me that he lost about $620M in paper wealth today. I believe he owns 19% of TSLA and 22% of SCTY. But there are a helluva lot more shares of TSLA out there.

Missed this last week.

98M (68M float) SCTY shares, 148M (104M float) TSLA shares. But number of shares doesn't matter. Market cap does and TSLA is about 13x bigger than SCTY. He has 31M shares of TSLA and 22M shaes of SCTY. That's around $6.5B in TSLA and $500M of SCTY in today's prices. Give or take a few hundred million from last week.

But the thing is, if you can leverage one to make money in the other, why not? TSLA is the long haul and SCTY is the cash in. Musk doesn't think short term. Nor should he with that kind of money. It's a long game and the SCTY buy is a win for him.

Paper wealth is just that, paper. Guys like Musk keep losses on paper.

In other TSLA news, the kiddo got picked up in a P90D for summer camp last week. She loved the jump seats. They scare the shit out of me. Just glad I wasn't home to see her rolling away in the back of that thing.

FWIW, when I test drove my new car, I hated the auto parking and blind spot indicators and adaptive cruise control. I opted out of what I could and turned off the rest. A lifetime of alert, defensive driving has worked out well for me. The last thing I want is for other drivers, and myself for that matter, to pay less attention while on the road. Until we remove the driver completely, I don't think we should be giving them excuses to do other stuff. I don't think the autopilot was to blame here but I wonder if the driver was paying less attention because it was engaged. A semi crossing the road, or more importantly, about to cross the road, is something a driver should be aware of.

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Fri Jul 01, 2016 7:36 am

...the impact caused the Model S to pass under the trailer, with the bottom of the trailer impacting the windshield of the Model S."

Which makes me wonder - do the cars have catastrophic damage detection, which disengages Autopilot and stops the car, or did the car just correct course and keep on going with a deceased driver? That'd be a hellish police chase.

MonkeyFinger · Post by **MonkeyFinger** » Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:03 am

From a WaPo article, it kept on going with the driver deceased - thru two fences then hit a power pole. Yeesh. Autopilot 2.0 perhaps.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:12 am

Yikes. That graphic does not look good. It should be noted that by definition the driver is at fault here (looks like both drivers, actually--the truck driver for turning when he wasn't clear to do so, and the Tesla driver for not supervising autopilot).

In any event, hopefully Tesla can make some improvements to the software based on this data.

RIP, driver.

Not that this matters, but from what I've read it sounds like he was a pretty devoted EV enthusiast/evangelist.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:18 am

LawBeefaroni wrote:Market cap does

Isn't "Market Cap" == "Number of Shares Outstanding" * "Market Price"?

In other words, what matters is the number of shares that you have, multiplied by the change in price. Which is your resulting change in market cap. Or in even other words, it sounds like you are saying the same thing to me.

And I agree with you on Musk's long term view of things, I was just commenting that at the moment, his decision had a very dramatic negative effect on his personal net worth.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:30 am

RunningMn9 wrote:And I agree with you on Musk's long term view of things, I was just commenting that at the moment, his decision had a very dramatic negative effect on his personal net worth.

Same boat here. In the long run he stands to make a killing if his views on the 10-25-year outlook are correct (which I believe they are). In the short term, it cost him money (paper money, sure.) That said, it's in no way a sure bet that this works out well for Tesla/SolarCity/Musk. SolarCity is in some serious pain right now, and Tesla has other balls to juggle (such as 400k pre-orders for Model 3 which are only 13 months away from targeted first shipments, and a huge increase from prior production ramp plans, and their perpetually 'just 1-2 quarters away from free cash flow positive' water-treading). I hope it works out, as the new Tesla would be in a fairly unique position to own the generation, use, and storage of the future grid to an extent far beyond any current competitors. But it's not clear to me that it's a sure-fire win.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Jul 01, 2016 10:15 am

Without some actual speed numbers, how far the car traveled tells us nothing about whether the autopilot was involved or not. It could very well have ended up at that location through Newton's First Law.

I'm sure the black box investigation will tell us more.

rshetts2 · Post by **rshetts2** » Fri Jul 01, 2016 10:42 am

It is really hard to determine if there was any fault on the auto pilot's part in this accident. Much more information is needed but then thats exactly why an investigation is called for. There a pretty good chance that without auto on, this accident would have still occurred. An aware and in control driver may have been able to avoid that accident but without other information that's impossible to determine All we really know is that the semi not yielding to oncoming traffic while making his left turn, which is a clear traffic violation, is the primary cause. If the semi had not made that turn, the accident would not have happened. Of course a lack of attention by the drive using auto drive would be a contributing factor but it seems that the main liability here lies with the semi.

I do agree that until vehicles are completely driver free, these "auto drive' systems pose a risk. But then cell phones pose the same risk and at a much higher rate.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Fri Jul 01, 2016 10:55 am

Isgrimnur wrote:Without some actual speed numbers, how far the car traveled tells us nothing about whether the autopilot was involved or not. It could very well have ended up at that location through Newton's First Law.

I'm sure the black box investigation will tell us more.

I thought that Tesla has already come out and said that the autopilot was "involved". The sensors did not see the tractor trailer, and thus could not take action.

Although - I cannot imagine a scenario where I would trust autopilot on a non-highway where I am dealing with traffic lights and/or intersections. That seems insane to me.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Jul 01, 2016 11:02 am

US-27 is a highway.

Here would be the driver's location and view at the time of the accident. I would have been running in autopilot as well, running a straight highway with nothing on the road as far as the eye can see.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Fri Jul 01, 2016 11:04 am

That's not a highway to me. I mean, it's a highway to me. But I when I say "highway", I mean an interstate highway with on-ramps and off-ramps. With no possibility of oncoming traffic turning into my lane unexpectedly.

If I'm on a road where other drivers can make a left turn across my lane, I'm not running auto pilot.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Jul 01, 2016 1:00 pm

Distracted driving?

A driver was so enamored of his Tesla Model S sedan that he nicknamed the car “Tessy,” praised the safety benefits of its “Autopilot” system and was watching a Harry Potter video when he became the first person to die in a wreck involving a car in self-driving mode.
...
Frank Baressi, 62, the driver of the truck and owner of Okemah Express, said the Tesla driver was “playing Harry Potter on the TV screen” at the time of the crash and driving so quickly that “he went so fast through my trailer I didn’t see him.”
...
The movie “was still playing when he died,” Baressi told The Associated Press in an interview from his home in Palm Harbor, Florida, saying the careening car “snapped a telephone pole a quarter mile down the road.” He acknowledged he didn’t see the movie, only heard it.

Tesla Motors said it is not possible to watch videos on the Model S touch screen. There was no reference to the movie in initial police reports.
...
Autopilot makes frequent checks, making sure the driver’s hands are on the wheel, and it gives visual and audible alerts if hands aren’t detected, and it gradually slows the car until a driver responds, the statement said.

I don't care if he was watching porn. You still turned in front of him. He had the right of way.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Fri Jul 01, 2016 1:10 pm

Yeah, what an ass. Regardless of who's at fault, the dude died after hitting your truck. Show some restraint.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Mon Jul 11, 2016 8:47 am

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 9:41 pm

Master Plan, Part Deux.

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Thu Jul 21, 2016 7:27 am

I really don't know how I feel about my car making money while I'm at work. I can't imagine a world where I'd want to get in my car to discover that someone's left food to rot on the floor, cigarettes burns on the dashboard, and greasy stains on the seats.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Jul 21, 2016 7:56 am

When true self-driving is approved by regulators, it will mean that you will be able to summon your Tesla from pretty much anywhere. Once it picks you up, you will be able to sleep, read or do anything else enroute to your destination.

I was thinking about this part the other day. I regularly travel, so if I could get a self-driving car I could just drive myself to the airport and then program it to drive back home. No Uber, no waiting for the train, no $30 / day parking.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Thu Jul 21, 2016 8:30 am

Heck, I mostly just use my car to get to work. If I could then send it home for the day so my wife could use it and just summon it back when I was ready to go home - that would be pretty sweet.

morlac · Post by **morlac** » Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:22 am

Paingod wrote:I really don't know how I feel about my car making money while I'm at work. I can't imagine a world where I'd want to get in my car to discover that someone's left food to rot on the floor, cigarettes burns on the dashboard, and greasy stains on the seats.

I'd be even more concerned about Dirty Mike and the Boys.

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:37 am

I wonder how much rides in summoned fleet cars will cost. Right now, I pay about $300 per month on each of two car payments, about $100 insurance on each, and about $150 in gas total and, since both cars are new, call it $50 for maintenance for an even $1000. If summoned cars can beat that price point, I wouldn't need to own a car at all.