Samurai Versus Ninja (ww) Night 2: RMC dead

[Unagi]

So, it strikes me that maybe the best use of the PI is to actually prove 3 villagers (in other words, Don't include yourself and simply try and pick 3 people you really think are GOOD) and then if we lynch the PI and learn he is good, we have 3 proven/trusted players from his scan - which is pretty damn good.

Conversely; having 1 wolf (I suppose hitting 2 is damn good, so, keeping that in mind) - having just 1 wolf in his 'net', and also needing to feel good acting on the unproven/trusted PI's info - seems like a net negative / wolf-move.

Make sense?
Not right?

That would be my suggestion, try to get 3 good guys, not including RMC, in your net. If we get a wolf then we have to spend some effort weeding them out and possibly taking some innocent lives along the way.

We can prove RMC when he dies and he will die. It's the only way to be sure.

Yup I will die, most likely tonight, so your thoughts on my scan are most likely wasted.

What are the odds that we have a protector? You're the obvious one to protect, so it seems likely that you'll be alive tomorrow morning.

How, Holman - do you hold this opinion one day... and then hold the opinion that you hold now today....

[Unagi]

If he's good, great we have 2 proven, if he's bad great we got one of the 2 baddies. Win/win all around

\
Good team can't win this game killing good guys.

And Vorret, It's been shown that RMC's scans are 'more or less' worthless in any "100% proof" way that everyone here has bought into Needing to make sure of things?

"We must test RMC", itself, is a fallacy.

What are the odds that we Actually hit one of our specials on Day 1?
You've played enough to know the answer to that.

[Holman]

So, it strikes me that maybe the best use of the PI is to actually prove 3 villagers (in other words, Don't include yourself and simply try and pick 3 people you really think are GOOD) and then if we lynch the PI and learn he is good, we have 3 proven/trusted players from his scan - which is pretty damn good.

Conversely; having 1 wolf (I suppose hitting 2 is damn good, so, keeping that in mind) - having just 1 wolf in his 'net', and also needing to feel good acting on the unproven/trusted PI's info - seems like a net negative / wolf-move.

Make sense?
Not right?

That would be my suggestion, try to get 3 good guys, not including RMC, in your net. If we get a wolf then we have to spend some effort weeding them out and possibly taking some innocent lives along the way.

We can prove RMC when he dies and he will die. It's the only way to be sure.

Yup I will die, most likely tonight, so your thoughts on my scan are most likely wasted.

What are the odds that we have a protector? You're the obvious one to protect, so it seems likely that you'll be alive tomorrow morning.

How, Holman - do you hold this opinion one day... and then hold the opinion that you hold now today....

I counted up the roles. My earlier post said that if we DID have a protector then RMC would be the obvious one to protect. That's all.

[Unagi]

So how do you not hold the thought that the wolves figured the same thing? That's odd.

[Holman]

I'm only one man.

[Unagi]

So you claim.

[Unagi]

[Scoop20906]

Day 2 Vote Count

RMC(4) - Moliere, Holman, Vorret, bb2112

No Votes Cast
RMC
El Guapo
Unagi

Majority of 4 votes.

Voting is closed!

[Scoop20906]

Votes were counted and RMC is lynched. The results were clear.

RMC IS THE DEVIL!!!

[Scoop20906]

ANDDDDD RMC was also a samurai.



It is Night 2

Night Specials, please send me your orders by Saturday, May 7, 2015 at 9:00 pm EDT.

[Holman]

Well I'm genuinely surprised about that.

[Unagi]

[Unagi]

Well I'm genuinely surprised about that.

You assumed the deadline would be given in EST ?

[Holman]

Well I'm genuinely surprised about that.

You assumed the deadline would be given in EST ?

I assumed he was a minor demon. But THE DEVIL??? Never.

[Unagi]

Ok, so let's think this through...
Seems like the wolves would kill RMC, unless they are either gamblers or they are highly confident that the village would kill RMC....

...I should reread the thread and see what I find.

Take your time.

[Scoop20906]

Well I'm genuinely surprised about that.

You assumed the deadline would be given in EST ?

I assumed he was a minor demon. But THE DEVIL??? Never.

Oh no. RMC is the DEVIL!!!!

[RMC]

Well I'm genuinely surprised about that.

You assumed the deadline would be given in EST ?

I assumed he was a minor demon. But THE DEVIL??? Never.

Oh no. RMC is the DEVIL!!!!

[El Guapo]

Ok, so let's think this through...
Seems like the wolves would kill RMC, unless they are either gamblers or they are highly confident that the village would kill RMC....

...I should reread the thread and see what I find.

Take your time.

Right? I log in this evening to do a re-read and the deed is done. Well, saves me some time this evening, anyway.

[bb2112]

That is why I'm coming out now. Wolves have to make a choice. If I wait until tomorrow, then we lose any edge we may have if RMC is good. And if he is evil, woohoo. One down, one to go.

Fixed it.

Why on EARTH do we believe that YOU are a special, just because you declared that you were?
(seriously, did I miss something?)

When/if you are not killed tonight... what do we make of ya then?
You: Pushing the kill on RMC through, while claiming special...
Declaring that a GOOD Lynch on RMC makes El G and Unagi 'proven', when El G showed how many ways we could have been scanned by a good RMC and given him a false read.

Ok, as YOU stated earlier we have to make certain guesses as to what is what. We will never be able to rely on this rule set to give us any solid information. I had been going back and forth on whether RMC was telling the truth or not. In the end I didn't believe him and so I voted for him. I gave my reasons. Based on your comments you seemed to have believed in him but you have no business to do that either. Even now after he is dead he could have been the Minion trying to sow confusion or the Cursed hoping the wolves killed him at night. So even now that he is a proven villager, we still don't know for sure what his role is. You assumed he was telling the truth from the beginning and I have to assume that is because you claim to be good and RMC supported your claim. I, and others, don't know that. So to try to put some logic to this game, instead of just ignoring everything and lynching willy nilly, I am going with a slightly different assumption than you.

If RMC turned out to be a villager, then I am going to assume he was telling the truth. If not, then we were probably going to kill a wolf. That's it. Can I still be wrong, yes. Can you still be wrong in your assumption, yes. But at this point we need to cling to something and for lack of anything better I am going with probabilities.

[bb2112]

That is why I'm coming out now. Wolves have to make a choice. If I wait until tomorrow, then we lose any edge we may have if RMC is good. And if he is evil, woohoo. One down, one to go.

Fixed it.

Why on EARTH do we believe that YOU are a special, just because you declared that you were?
(seriously, did I miss something?)

When/if you are not killed tonight... what do we make of ya then?
You: Pushing the kill on RMC through, while claiming special...
Declaring that a GOOD Lynch on RMC makes El G and Unagi 'proven', when El G showed how many ways we could have been scanned by a good RMC and given him a false read.

Seriously, so how is this helping? Whether you believe me or not can be questioned tomorrow if we are still both around, why do you think now is the time? Who are you trying to help here?

[Unagi]

Sorry. Just sorta seems like RMC makes a claim of special and everyone needs to know which one. It's of critical importance. Then you come out and do this little weenie special claim and want me to just relax.

Got it.

And it's all to protect the crowned Proven players : Unagi and El Guapo.
So that we MAY live tomorrow, over your martyrdom, cause the wolves may fear you now.

Got it.

It was important to test RMC, because that gave the game 2 trusted players.


Got it.

[bb2112]

Sorry. Just sorta seems like RMC makes a claim of special and everyone needs to know which one. It's of critical importance. Then you come out and do this little weenie special claim and want me to just relax.

Got it.

And it's all to protect the crowned Proven players : Unagi and El Guapo.
So that we MAY live tomorrow, over your martyrdom, cause the wolves may fear you now.

Got it.

It was important to test RMC, because that gave the game 2 trusted players.


Got it.

I don't think you do.

[Unagi]

I think that tomorrow, the good Samurai should probably focus on Moliere:


In all of my re-reads, he comes across as an almost non-playing player, but what he has done has been pretty "on-plot" to what I see as the wolves stream in all of this game.

What's nice is, there really isn't all that much to go through. If one didn't know better, one would think he has only a passing interest in the game.

He starts with a tag on his partner, to make sure they don't avoid eachother...

RIP R.W.
And now for a little vengeance.
 bb2112 
 

Replies to bb2112's mentioning of him, as anyone should/would...

Moliere #2 (2 reasons, Triggercut principle and he is smart enough to cause this confusion but killing one of the Detroit crew to start the day off with shenanigans)

Game started Sunday at 6:30pm, by 9:00am Monday (this must be record time) - Moliere puts the screws on RMC to see if maybe he is a special...

 RMC 
 
n-1

no problem.

Okay. I am a special, take your votes off me, please.

ok
withdraw  RMC 
 

scolds El Guapo

Sooo...RMC, which special are you?

An interesting question. If he tells us then we can see if there is a counter claim. Or he tells us and the ninjas know who to target. Or you're a ninja fishing for info.  El Guapo 
 

scolds Vorret

I'm ok with letting him live, wolves will get him tonight anyway if he really is a special.
If not, well, we get him tomorrow, no harms done.

Didn't you just tell the ninjas not to bother killing RMC tonight because the village will lynch him tomorrow?

keeps a little heat on RMC's claim

Give me names to check..

I like the idea of checking RMC. He comes across as suspicious.

jumps on what he calls a 'train', that was just my lone vote on Newcastle.

wish you were that picky about finding them ninja's  moliere 
 
because...well its always fun seeing if we can get moliere lynched before me.

Since no one else wants to vote for ElG I will jump on the  Newcastle 
 
train because I like to mix my metaphors.

replies to Newcastle...

Moliere....why must we always be at each other....and its not a train yet... More like a slow moving snail parade

Hey, I tried turning a new leaf by voting RMC and ElG first.

of course.

Simple villager...do as ye must.... You win this time moliere

Spoiler:

Of course, I am only a simple villager too so the net result would have been the same.

here Moliere bolsters Vorret's doubt.

I kinda agree with El Guano, why is RMC still alive since he has scan abilities.
We know he can spoof quite well.
If he's a baddie, there's probably one wolf in the 3 he scanned (obviously not Lassr).
If he's good we'll the situation isn't too bad.
Still him being alive really confuses me.

A perfect strategy for spoofing the role: include your night kill as one of the confirmed Samurai scans while also including your fellow ninja. Did someone figure out the math for hitting 3 Samurai on the scans?

promotes the "we can trust RMCs scans if we lynch him" fallacy, and RMC's fate is sealed, it would seem.

I vote we lynch RMC. If he's good then we can trust his scans. If he's a ninja then his scans are suspect.  RMC 
 

The Voting....

The lead-up to RMC's first "N-1" vote the other day went like this:
Lassr, bb2112, Vorret, Moliere

Pretty sure that's a stagger of: Good, evil, Good, evil.

The lynch of Newcastle went like this:
Moliere is sitting at 3 votes...
I place a vote on Newcastle, Moliere immediately follows suite.
Moliere(3) - El Guapo, newcastle, Vorret (I believe all good players?)
newcastle(2) - Unagi, Moliere
Vorret(1) - bb2112

Holman, the ringer in this story, comes in and puts Newcastle at 3.

bb2112 comes in here and seems to like the thought of getting 1 of them to N-1.... Alas, he doesn't pick Moliere. (never mind that he had listed Moliere after RMC earlier).
Newcastle says he is a Safe kill, so El G ends the day:
newcastle(5) - Unagi, Moliere, Holman, bb2112, El Guapo
Moliere(2) - newcastle, Vorret

The ultimate lynch of RMC went like this:
Friday, 11:00 am Moliere suggests we start voting for RMC.
Holman at noon, followed by Vorret like 10 minutes after.
Two hours after Moliere's vote, bb2112 comes in and puts the final vote on RMC.
RMC(4) - Moliere, Holman, Vorret, bb2112
No Votes Cast: RMC, El Guapo, Unagi


If I am still alive in the morning, I plan to argue that we should lynch Moliere.
If I am not, I wanted to give the good Samurai my read above. Holman would be where I would have rather have spent that RMC test/miss, but I don't think there is time now.

[Unagi]

Whether you believe me or not can be questioned tomorrow if we are still both around, why do you think now is the time? Who are you trying to help here?

I'm trying to help the good samurai, and the reason I was thinking "now is the time" for you and I to have this conversation, was/is kinda a YOLO reason.... I don't think we will both be around tomorrow to discuss it.
I mean, right?

[bb2112]

I will explain tomorrow or I will be dead and no explanations necessary. I am sure if you get killed tonight instead of me that others will ask. Nobody is going to let me off on the way I made my claim. Trust me, (or not) but I do have a plan. That is why I did things the way I did. I am now trying to get in the heads of the wolves. If I die I would rather people take a leap and trust you and El G, if I don't then something even better will happen for the village but I will have to survive for me to pull it off. All will become clearer tomorrow.

[Vorret]

That's some epic level analysis Unagi. It does put alot of things in perspective, sadly I have a feeling it'll be your doom

[Holman]

If I am still alive in the morning, I plan to argue that we should lynch Moliere.
If I am not, I wanted to give the good Samurai my read above. Holman would be where I would have rather have spent that RMC test/miss, but I don't think there is time now.

I don't see how lynching me would have "tested" anything. How does that work?

[Unagi]

If I am still alive in the morning, I plan to argue that we should lynch Moliere.
If I am not, I wanted to give the good Samurai my read above. Holman would be where I would have rather have spent that RMC test/miss, but I don't think there is time now.

I don't see how lynching me would have "tested" anything. How does that work?

Sorry, I don't think you are understanding what I am getting at. It has nothing to do with 'testing the RMC claim', if that is what you are getting at.

I'm speaking at the higher level of 'Number of Guesses/Misses' any given game sorta has baked into it's design. With all the random roles in this game, it's almost meaningless, but still technically exists, we just can't hope to know it.

But, "all of you" wanted and needed to use one of them on RMC. I would have rather used 'that one' on you, and that's just because I had more or less decided (personally, I realize) that RMC was likely who he said he was.

So, 'lynching you' would have tested my personal question of "is he a wolf?"

However, I have a higher feeling on bb2112 and Moliere at this point, and we are far enough along now in the game where I can't 'ponder about 3', I think I need to 'focus on 2'.
This becomes evident to anyone on the last day, where one needs to pick 1.

I think we have enough time to weather "tests" on those two... and if they are not right - then it's game over.
I think we cannot weather any more misses.

[Unagi]

If I die I would rather people take a leap and trust you and El G, if I don't then something even better will happen for the village but I will have to survive for me to pull it off. All will become clearer tomorrow.

Well. I may not be long for this world, so I really wanted to see if you made any sense. I look forward to being wrong on this, but I don't know who you think you are.

Apprentice Seer: not likely
Beholder: not likely
Bogeyman: not our friend
Bodyguard: would suck to lose you, but you wouldn't have protected us by declaring
Diseased: be cool if they ate you, but you would play this way better
Hunter: WAY too convoluted to fit your description
Insomniac: not sure what this would be used for 'tonight'
Lycan: not our friend
Martyr: not applicable, from what I understand?
Mayor: Perhaps, but a very odd way to use that power here.
Old Hag: Perhaps, but not really sure how this would fit your above plan either.
Old Man: Doesn't fit anything I can imagine you describing with your above plan either.
P.I.: You killed this special.
Priest: Just like body guard, I don't think this player does his job well announcing he is special.
Prince: Dangerous for the village, as you just push us into a night in this stage of the game. (not our friend)
Seer: not likely (certainly not something I'm going to just accept)
Spellcaster: Possible, but not how I'd think you would play this at all.
Tough Guy: Possible, but I doubt you would play this role this way.
Troublemaker: Very odd if you cooked this into your plan above.
The Amulet of Protection: n/a
Witch: why would you wait?
Sorcerer: n/a
Minion: not our friend
Wolf Cub: not our friend
Dream Wolf: not our friend
Cursed: not our friend
Doppelgänger: n/a
Drunk: n/a
Hoodlum: not our friend
Tanner: not our friend
Sasquatch: not our friend
Nostradamus: not our friend

[Unagi]

and another thing...

This is key:
You declared special before the RMC results were known.... in the very post you killed RMC in.

That's very weird.

Then, after RMC is dead... you float this:

Trust me, (or not) but I do have a plan. That is why I did things the way I did. I am now trying to get in the heads of the wolves. If I die I would rather people take a leap and trust you and El G, if I don't then something even better will happen for the village but I will have to survive for me to pull it off. All will become clearer tomorrow.

You have a plan.
I assume that plan was 'in place' when you declared you were a special.
You have a plan that should survive the logic of both "If RMC is good" and "If RMC is bad", yet you state that the point of coming out when you did... well... here, to Vorret in your own words:
- - - - "That is why I'm coming out now. Wolves have to make a choice. If I wait until tomorrow, then we lose any edge we may have if RMC is good. "
So timing was CRITICAL here for the edge of having both El G and Unagi alive with you over the night... for wolf choices....

- - - - "And if he (RMC) is evil, woohoo. One down, one to go."
This is you basically saying "and if RMC is evil then: woo hoo, doesn't matter that I came out as a special, as there is no reason I need to keep my special role secret really, cause we killed 1, woooooot wooot!"

But you now seem to paint yourself as a special who has something great for the village that requires you to not be killed over night.
And it's even better than Unagi and El Guapo living through the night...

I mean, maybe you are that special... the special that has something for the village tomorrow, but then why risk your neck Before you even knew the outcome of the RMC vote.
Why not instead keep quiet and just let the two 'semi-trusted' act as night-protection for you, while you breeze in tomorrow with your "something even better will happen for the village"....
Or, at the very least, why not wait for the RMC lynch results and then decide if you are willing to risk your neck by declaring your special status (which is arguably done now so that you can join at least 1 other Truly Good (Totally Ignore El Guapo's post), and force the wolfs into super wishy washy wolf choices tonight)'.

Or maybe you are a villager that felt he was in a great position and a great game to toss in a fake special claim to 'draw cover' for 2 people you didn't know at the time were anything other than RMC's partners in crime. Cause that's what would have been randomly helpful no matter the results of RMC's lynch. (sarcasm, just so I'm clear)

Or maybe you are an evil-special-villager and we can't fathom why you are doing anything.

Or maybe it's all just a tired wolf in a crazy work day.

Gotta be one of those four possibilities.


This also stood out to me too... your non-rush to get RMC removed here:

9:00pm, night before...

I am not necessarily ready to lynch him today either. We need a hit in the next two days and we have some time to discuss it.

We closed that night with me establishing that we have perhaps no real misses left if we treat a Zerker poorly, and El Guapo took it further showing how we could be up against enough to mean we have no more misses At All.

Next morning starts, and you take this stance:
10:25 am... it's all cool man...

Today has been crazy busy at work. I will go back and do a reread tonight or tomorrow.

less than three hours later in a crazy busy day at work for you... but I mean... RMC is sitting there at N-1... how can you resist?

I keep going back to I am not sure if RMC is playing us again. I am leaning toward yes, and this is why:
<reasons>
Now I'm going to do something <that is entirely incongruous with the fact that I am currently "leaning yes" with RMC being a liar, and have something great to deliver if I can only live through the night>. Hey wolves, I'm a special. Come eat me! At least one of Unagi or El G is good. And if RMC turns out good and I get eaten, then we have 2 provens going into tomorrow.
 RMC 
 

and now you're all like:
'Just chill... It is night... I have a plan... '

[Newcastle]

[Unagi]

I feel like an old girlfriend to you bb2112. I keep talking, but you aren't picken up... do I need to hobble over there and get some answers ?

[Holman]

It's Saturday night. You should be able to find *somebody* for a date.

[Scoop20906]

Day 3

Day arrives. One is dead. His name is Unagi.



=======



During the night, bb2112 was visited by the Old Hag and contracted a very nasty disease. Ashamed of this dishonor he has left town never to be seen again.

Dead:
Remus West
newcastle
Lassr
RMC
Unagi

Left town:
bb2112

Living:
Moliere
Holman
El Guapo
Vorret

The day will end when majority of 3 voted has been reached or the hard deadline is reached on Friday, May 13 at 5:00 pm EDT.

[Holman]

Old Hag V.D.?? What are the symptoms?

[Holman]

Unagi was hitting bb2112 pretty hard, and clearly Unagi was a villager. But a case of Old Hag Crabs means we don't get confirmation of bb2112's role. There could still be multiple ninjas among us.

[Moliere]

Unagi was hitting bb2112 pretty hard, and clearly Unagi was a villager. But a case of Old Hag Crabs means we don't get confirmation of bb2112's role. There could still be multiple ninjas among us.

With only 4 living? Wouldn't that make a 2-2 finish likely? If one of the villagers votes for the other villager then the remaining ninjas jump in and finish the game, right?

[Holman]

Unagi was hitting bb2112 pretty hard, and clearly Unagi was a villager. But a case of Old Hag Crabs means we don't get confirmation of bb2112's role. There could still be multiple ninjas among us.

With only 4 living? Wouldn't that make a 2-2 finish likely? If one of the villagers votes for the other villager then the remaining ninjas jump in and finish the game, right?

Right. But now that I think about it, if were at two ninjas and two samurai, the ninjas could both vote on the same target immediately. In fact they could reveal themselves and it wouldn't matter: with a tie vote there's no lynch, so we would go into the night without one.

So, yes, bb2112 must have been evil. And of course Unagi has been proven good.

[Holman]

Unagi's final action was to carefully lay out the case against Moliere. Since this game has been a muddle of confusion, I think I've got nothing better to go on.

 Moliere 
 

[Holman]

Am I the only one here?

Did I win??