Defiant wrote:Kraken wrote:
Democrats can't win without independents (nor can Republicans, of course)
Indeed, "President" Romney won the independent vote in 2012, 50%-45%
Party affiliations
Gallup's most recent numbers say:
27% Republicans
32% Democrats
40% Independents
44% R including leaners
49% D including leaners
So each party needs independents, but Republicans need more of them. Independent "leaners" apparently split 50/50 since the 5-point D lead is intact when they're counted. If just 7% are actually up for grabs, then the Rs would need to win almost all of them to overcome the D's 5-point advantage (that is, if the national popular vote meant anything; you'd need to look at affiliations in the tossup states to translate this into predictions).
In April, 538 asked why Sanders does better with independents. In May, they said
Sanders voters could be key to Clinton's success -- as we are in fact seeing. "If Clinton wins over those voters, she’ll gain a few percentage points on Trump in national and swing state polls, and the race will potentially look more like it did in March and April, with Clinton having a fairly comfortable lead over Trump. If not, the general election could come down to the wire."
Well, it's apparently coming down to the wire. Most of the Bernie Bros did get on the Clinton train, but a significant number have not (yet). Those are the people who are either fed up with the establishment or who detest Clinton on a personal level, and they're the ones who are going to make or break her.
If Bernie were the nominee, would we be having the same conversation about converting Clinton supporters to him? I suspect not, because Clinton's base is loyally partisan. But that's purely hypothetical.