Trump's Cabinet selection

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sat Jan 21, 2017 5:17 pm

wait, never mind, it's random

If Trump is exposed and removed from office then Putin can replace him with another random player

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:33 am

Is the replacement Trump truely random? That is are all players - even those already on team evil - possible new Trumps?

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Sun Jan 22, 2017 1:01 pm

Remus West wrote:Is the replacement Trump truely random? That is are all players - even those already on team evil - possible new Trumps?

No. It's meant to be a choice by Putin who he wants to replace Trump. Sorry, the reference to "random" is a little misleading. It's random because Putin doesn't know any of the other player roles.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Jan 22, 2017 3:25 pm

Ah.

So he could hit Conway this way.

Is there any protection from it?

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Sun Jan 22, 2017 3:59 pm

Chaosraven wrote:Is there any protection from it?

No

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sun Jan 22, 2017 6:04 pm

Catching up

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sun Jan 22, 2017 7:55 pm

Interesting logic puzzle, given the apparent simplicity of the rules.

Questions:

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sun Jan 22, 2017 8:27 pm

Lagom Lite wrote:

Happy new year!

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sun Jan 22, 2017 9:27 pm

Moliere wrote:
Remus West wrote:Is the replacement Trump truely random? That is are all players - even those already on team evil - possible new Trumps?
No. It's meant to be a choice by Putin who he wants to replace Trump. Sorry, the reference to "random" is a little misleading. It's random because Putin doesn't know any of the other player roles.

1. Can Putin select himself as Trump's replacement?
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
2. Do we have to kill Trump, Conway, and Putin in order to win, or just Trump and Conway?
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

Moliere wrote:
El Guapo wrote:So do we know that Scraper was not a wolf?
Correct.

3. Do we know that Scraper was not one of {Anderson, Jill, Litvinenko}? IOW, do we know he was vanilla?
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
4. What did you mean by this, Remus?

Remus West wrote:So, since we failed to put the Seer on our first target of the day we are moving on to target number two?

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
5. This was good reasoning, as several noted. What to make of that fact? Pondering.

PLW wrote:I accuse scoop20906

My reasoning:

1. At one point Newcastle was at N-1 with both of the kills (bb, Isi) on the list, along with me. So that's 3 people I'm sure were villagers. I conclude that either Newcastle is a wolf or one of the other two voters (Remus and scoop) was, because if he were a villager and so were the other two, then a wolf would be willing to push it over the edge. Thus there is a wolf among: Newcastle, Remus, scoop

2. Looking at the voters for the actual bad lynch, we find only one of those three, scoop, so that's whom I'm accusing.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sun Jan 22, 2017 9:35 pm

The key question, among several, is whether, in a game without postmortem forensics, a RusskieRemus or a RusskieScoop would have the яйца to claim a role that might be contested.

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:58 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:1. Can Putin select himself as Trump's replacement?

No

Grundbegriff wrote:2. Do we have to kill Trump, Conway, and Putin in order to win, or just Trump and Conway?

Trump and Putin both have to die for the good guys to win.

Grundbegriff wrote:
Moliere wrote:
El Guapo wrote:So do we know that Scraper was not a wolf?
Correct.
3. Do we know that Scraper was not one of {Anderson, Jill, Litvinenko}? IOW, do we know he was vanilla?

Alexander is only made public if Putin scans him or replaces Trump with him. Anderson and Jill are never made public.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Jan 23, 2017 9:29 am

Grund, the quote you posted from me asking what I meant was from day 1 when Newcastle was on the edge and made no claim. I was commenting regarding folks backing away from lynching him and focusing on a second target that day as I considered him a solid day 1 lynch at that point and was wondering about those who wanted to look elsewhere given the regularity with which we out our Seers in these games. It had little to do with concern over actually being outed (as I wasn't being targeted) but rather wondering about the motivation of those who pursued other avenues rather than lynching Newcastle.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Jan 23, 2017 1:33 pm

Moliere wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:2. Do we have to kill Trump, Conway, and Putin in order to win, or just Trump and Conway?
Trump and Putin both have to die for the good guys to win.

So we don't have to kill Conway? That changes the math

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Jan 23, 2017 1:39 pm

Remus West wrote:Grund, the quote you posted from me asking what I meant was from day 1 when Newcastle was on the edge and made no claim. I was commenting regarding folks backing away from lynching him and focusing on a second target that day as I considered him a solid day 1 lynch at that point and was wondering about those who wanted to look elsewhere given the regularity with which we out our Seers in these games. It had little to do with concern over actually being outed (as I wasn't being targeted) but rather wondering about the motivation of those who pursued other avenues rather than lynching Newcastle.

Thanks. I get that you were registering surprise at how readily the Newcastle haywain collapsed. I'm just confused about your language: "...failed to put the Seer on our first target....". What does that mean?

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:28 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Remus West wrote:Grund, the quote you posted from me asking what I meant was from day 1 when Newcastle was on the edge and made no claim. I was commenting regarding folks backing away from lynching him and focusing on a second target that day as I considered him a solid day 1 lynch at that point and was wondering about those who wanted to look elsewhere given the regularity with which we out our Seers in these games. It had little to do with concern over actually being outed (as I wasn't being targeted) but rather wondering about the motivation of those who pursued other avenues rather than lynching Newcastle.
Thanks. I get that you were registering surprise at how readily the Newcastle haywain collapsed. I'm just confused about your language: "...failed to put the Seer on our first target....". What does that mean?

It was snark directed at those leaving the Newcastle vote to run a new target up the flag pole - I was suggesting that those players were looking to out a special rather than actually accomplish a lynch.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Mon Jan 23, 2017 6:24 pm

Remus West wrote:Grund, the quote you posted from me asking what I meant was from day 1 when Newcastle was on the edge and made no claim. I was commenting regarding folks backing away from lynching him and focusing on a second target that day as I considered him a solid day 1 lynch at that point and was wondering about those who wanted to look elsewhere given the regularity with which we out our Seers in these games. It had little to do with concern over actually being outed (as I wasn't being targeted) but rather wondering about the motivation of those who pursued other avenues rather than lynching Newcastle.

Alternative Facts

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon Jan 23, 2017 8:27 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Moliere wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:2. Do we have to kill Trump, Conway, and Putin in order to win, or just Trump and Conway?
Trump and Putin both have to die for the good guys to win.
So we don't have to kill Conway? That changes the math

hmmm. Conway counts toward the bad guy totals but does not have to be killed?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jan 23, 2017 8:29 pm

Lassr wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Moliere wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:2. Do we have to kill Trump, Conway, and Putin in order to win, or just Trump and Conway?
Trump and Putin both have to die for the good guys to win.
So we don't have to kill Conway? That changes the math
hmmm. Conway counts toward the bad guy totals but does not have to be killed?

I'm pretty sure that Conway has to be killed, and Moliere just accidentally omitted Conway from the list of people who have to die. Pretty sure Grund knows that too, hence the smiley face at the end of his comment.

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Mon Jan 23, 2017 8:36 pm

El Guapo wrote:I'm pretty sure that Conway has to be killed, and Moliere just accidentally omitted Conway from the list of people who have to die. Pretty sure Grund knows that too, hence the smiley face at the end of his comment.

I said that because it is technically Trump picking his Cabinet members. If he's killed and Putin is killed with no replacement available then the game is over. It's an example of a quick victory. Another is if Putin picks Alexander as Trump's replacement.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jan 23, 2017 8:39 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:(0) El Guapo:
(0) Grundbegriff:
(0) Chaosraven - Claimed Nobody
===========
(0) Lassr --> Neither Trump nor Conway, according to Remus
(0) PLW --> Neither Trump nor Conway, according to Remus
===========
(0) Scoop20906 --> Claimed Anderson Cooper
(0) Remus West --> Claimed Jill Stein

By that claim, Trump and Conway are among the Top Three.
Putin (if Alive) is among the Top Five.
4 good, 3 evil. As Remus says, if we lynch Trump or Conway, we get 4 good 2 evil, then Putin converts and we get 3 good 3 evil and game over (unless, I suppose, Litivenko is still alive and hits on Putin that night).

So it probably doesn't make sense to limit the discussion to the "Top 3", since Lassr or PLW could also be Putin, who we need to hit. I wonder if it could make sense for Litivenko (if still alive) to come forward. Probably not, right? I guess the only scenario is if Litivenko scanned three of the top 5, then we could reduce hitting Putin to a 50% chance.

That's assuming that everyone is tellinge the truth about their rolls.

Actually looking at this again we could theoretically be at 5 good, 2 evil, because it's possible that Trump has already night-killed Putin inadvertently. Odds are against that, but it's a non-trivial chance.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jan 23, 2017 8:39 pm

Moliere wrote:
El Guapo wrote:I'm pretty sure that Conway has to be killed, and Moliere just accidentally omitted Conway from the list of people who have to die. Pretty sure Grund knows that too, hence the smiley face at the end of his comment.
I said that because it is technically Trump picking his Cabinet members. If he's killed and Putin is killed with no replacement available then the game is over. It's an example of a quick victory. Another is if Putin picks Alexander as Trump's replacement.

Ah, gotcha.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:09 pm

El Guapo wrote:I'm pretty sure that Conway has to be killed, and Moliere just accidentally omitted Conway from the list of people who have to die. Pretty sure Grund knows that too, hence the smiley face at the end of his comment.

Yes, I was just teasing Mo.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:10 pm

Moliere wrote:
El Guapo wrote:I'm pretty sure that Conway has to be killed, and Moliere just accidentally omitted Conway from the list of people who have to die. Pretty sure Grund knows that too, hence the smiley face at the end of his comment.
I said that because it is technically Trump picking his Cabinet members. If he's killed and Putin is killed with no replacement available then the game is over. It's an example of a quick victory. Another is if Putin picks Alexander as Trump's replacement.

Wait-- so you weren't kidding? Just killing Trump and Putin is enough?

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:35 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:The key question, among several, is whether, in a game without postmortem forensics, a RusskieRemus or a RusskieScoop would have the яйца to claim a role that might be contested.

Having weighed this, I'm inclined to think it more likely that they're playing straight. By now, I would hope anyone in a position to contest one (or both) of them would have stepped forward to do so.

Which means...

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:45 pm

Chaosraven wrote:(0) El Guapo:
(0) Grundbegriff:
(0) Chaosraven:
===========
(0) Lassr:
(0) PLW:
===========
(0) Scoop20906:
(0) Remus West:

By that claim, Trump and Conway are among the Top Three.
Putin (if Alive) is among the Top Five.

...that this (above) is most likely correct. El Guapo notes that Putin may well be dead; looks like Chaosraven was sensitive to that possibility, too. And both chose to mention it, though with expert subtlety.

I understand that others will have to assess me (as usual); but (given the odds that Scoop and Remus are playing it straight) for me, it's a matter of figuring out which of these two is Trump and which Conway. Chaosraven has been talking a blue streak, and El Guapo has been eerily silent. I don't see "being in character" as relevant here since TrumpRL and ConwayRL are both bloviators. But if Trump is the selector and Conway is just fluff, which one would they put forward and which would hang back? And would they take our calculation of that sort of thing into account and whip out the iocane?

This doesn't strike me as rationally decidable. My intuition tilts toward El Guapo as hidden Trump and Chaosraven as the mouthpiece, which is pretty much where I started the day.

Code: Select all

Day kills: Scraper, Isgrimnur, Newcastle
Night kills: RMC, bb2112, Archinerd*
Alive: Chaosraven, El Guapo, Grundbegriff, Lassr*, PLW*, __Remus, __sCoop

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 12:12 am

so 3v3 still ends it for the good guys but conway cannot choose cabinet members so she does not have to die as long as we do not have a scenario where it ends 1v1 with conway alive. But if the game is over once we hit Trump and Putin we will not end up with a 1v1 situation with Conway.

So we still need to hit today.

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 12:15 am

Grundbegriff wrote:
Moliere wrote:
El Guapo wrote:I'm pretty sure that Conway has to be killed, and Moliere just accidentally omitted Conway from the list of people who have to die. Pretty sure Grund knows that too, hence the smiley face at the end of his comment.
I said that because it is technically Trump picking his Cabinet members. If he's killed and Putin is killed with no replacement available then the game is over. It's an example of a quick victory. Another is if Putin picks Alexander as Trump's replacement.
Wait-- so you weren't kidding? Just killing Trump and Putin is enough?

As you stated: Kellyanne Conway is just fluff.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 12:26 am

Moliere wrote: As you stated: Kellyanne Conway is just fluff.

luckily she is not a fluffer. She probably wouldn't be very good at that either...

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 3:03 pm

I think I am willing to vote El Guapo. Come on people let's do something...

PLW · Post by **PLW** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 3:51 pm

Lassr wrote:I think I am willing to vote El Guapo. Come on people let's do something...

To me, El Guapo is the least suspicious of the three that are above the line. He was the first vote on both lynches, but didn't even vote on either of the N-1 near lynches, even though we know (now) that they would have been good lynches for team evil.

For similar reasons, chaosraven is less suspicious to me, he was on both lynches but on neither of the N-1 lynches.

Grund, by contrast, just seems to be hanging back and letting the villagers do all the dirty work. After all, why intervene when we have such bad aim. So,

Grundbegriff

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 4:03 pm

PLW wrote:
Lassr wrote:I think I am willing to vote El Guapo. Come on people let's do something...
To me, El Guapo is the least suspicious of the three that are above the line. He was the first vote on both lynches, but didn't even vote on either of the N-1 near lynches, even though we know (now) that they would have been good lynches for team evil.

For similar reasons, chaosraven is less suspicious to me, he was on both lynches but on neither of the N-1 lynches.

Grund, by contrast, just seems to be hanging back and letting the villagers do all the dirty work. After all, why intervene when we have such bad aim. So,

Grundbegriff

the other one has to be Chaos or El Guapo if one is Grund. I am quite unsure at this point.

PLW · Post by **PLW** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 4:07 pm

Sure.. and if I had to name 2 it would be Grund and CR.

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 4:21 pm

Votes received
(0) El Guapo:
(1) Grundbegriff: PLW
(0) Scoop20906:
(0) Remus West:
(0) Lassr:
(0) PLW:
(0) Chaosraven: Lassr

Four votes are needed among the seven remaining players.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 7:56 pm

Don't look at me. I'm just another citizen.

Chaosraven

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jan 25, 2017 12:38 am

Moliere wrote:Votes received
(0) El Guapo:
(0) Grundbegriff:
(1) Scoop20906: Lassr
(5) Newcastle: PLW, Remus West (claimed Jill), Scoop20906 (claimed Anderson), Isgrimnur (now deceased), bb2112 (now deceased)
(1) Remus West: Chaosraven
(0) Lassr: bb2112
(0) bb2112:
(1) Archinerd: Newcastle (now deceased)
(1) PLW: El Guapo, Archinerd (now deceased)
(0) Chaosraven: Remus West
(1) Isgrimnur: El Guapo, bb2112

Eleven players remaining = 6 needed for a lynch.

Situation with Newcastle at n-2 on day 1.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jan 25, 2017 12:39 am

Archinerd wrote:
Newcastle wrote: I mean who's gonna post if i'm not around?
I agree, we should lynch someone who is quieter. Keeping Newcastle around may be dangerous but it might give us some info to use down the line.

We should have listened to you. A lot of the day 1 posters are now dead.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jan 25, 2017 12:44 am

Remus West wrote:So, since we failed to put the Seer on our first target of the day we are moving on to target number two?

I think this post makes Remus look good - trying to keep us from thrashing around too much on day 1 and outing a special. I guess it could also be trying to out Newcastle if he thought Newcastle was special but...I lean towards the former reading.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jan 25, 2017 12:49 am

Lassr wrote:Been so long I forgot who the first target was; so as a refresher, RMC and BB2112 have been the chosen targets.

I voted Chaosraven. RMC loves to vote for Remus and thought maybe Chaos set up Remus with an RMC kill. Weak but not much to go on.

Some mild analysis from Lassr.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jan 25, 2017 12:59 am

PLW wrote:I accuse scoop20906

My reasoning:

1. At one point Newcastle was at N-1 with both of the kills (bb, Isi) on the list, along with me. So that's 3 people I'm sure were villagers. I conclude that either Newcastle is a wolf or one of the other two voters (Remus and scoop) was, because if he were a villager and so were the other two, then a wolf would be willing to push it over the edge. Thus there is a wolf among: Newcastle, Remus, scoop

2. Looking at the voters for the actual bad lynch, we find only one of those three, scoop, so that's whom I'm accusing.

Then there's this. Reasonable analysis as I and others have said. Although at this point Newcastle is dead and the other two listed are claimed specials. So, either PLW was mistaken or one of [PLW, Remus, Scoop] is a wolf.

Though thinking about this some more, it's not obvious that a wolf would want to push Newcastle over the top at this point - Scooping someone before they state their role would be likely to draw unwanted attention to the wolf at issue.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jan 25, 2017 1:09 am

Votes received
(0) El Guapo:
(0) Grundbegriff: Newcastle
(4) Scoop20906: Archinerd (now dead), Remus West (claimed Jill), PLW (claimed scanned by RW), Lassr (claimed scanned by RW)
(0) Newcastle:
(1) Remus West: Archinerd, Scoop20906, Grundbegriff
(0) Lassr:
(0) Archinerd:
(2) PLW: Newcastle (now dead), Scoop20906 (claimed Anderson)
(1) Chaosraven: Lassr

n-1 situation for Scoop (shortly before he claimed Anderson).