Political Randomness

[El Guapo]

A House Democrat has introduced legislation to enhance the Constitution’s presidential removal procedures in response to concerns about President Trump’s behavior.

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.) filed the bill during the House's two-week April recess to empower former presidents and vice presidents of both parties, in coordination with the sitting vice president, to determine if a president is fit for office.

link

Unless I'm missing something this seems pointless and dumb. To the extent that it would *require* the Vice President to consult with former presidents and vice presidents, it's clearly unconstitutional (since the 25th amendment which is, you know, part of the Constitution) clearly doesn't require that. To the extent that it would just encourage the VP to consult with them...well, he could do that now if he wants to.

[Rip]

Yeah, I'm sure this is all just a coincidence.

On April 6, Ivanka Trump's company won provisional approval from the Chinese government for three new trademarks, giving it monopoly rights to sell Ivanka brand jewelry, bags and spa services in the world's second-largest economy. That night, the first daughter and her husband, Jared Kushner, sat next to the president of China and his wife for a steak and Dover sole dinner at Mar-a-Lago.

Hardly, the people in China love Ivanka. If anything any advantage the US has in working with China is Ivanka not the other way around.

[Max Peck]

Yeah, I'm sure this is all just a coincidence.

On April 6, Ivanka Trump's company won provisional approval from the Chinese government for three new trademarks, giving it monopoly rights to sell Ivanka brand jewelry, bags and spa services in the world's second-largest economy. That night, the first daughter and her husband, Jared Kushner, sat next to the president of China and his wife for a steak and Dover sole dinner at Mar-a-Lago.

Hardly, the people in China love Ivanka. If anything any advantage the US has in working with China is Ivanka not the other way around.

And yet, Trump Org wasn't winning any trademarks in China until after Trump won the election. And once he started getting favorable decisions on trademarks in China, he did a complete 180 on his attitude towards China. Suddenly he has great respect for Xi and China isn't a currency manipulator at all.

But, yeah, it's got to be a coincidence, and Xi totally isn't playing Trump like an out-of-tune ukulele.

[Remus West]

Yeah, I'm sure this is all just a coincidence.

On April 6, Ivanka Trump's company won provisional approval from the Chinese government for three new trademarks, giving it monopoly rights to sell Ivanka brand jewelry, bags and spa services in the world's second-largest economy. That night, the first daughter and her husband, Jared Kushner, sat next to the president of China and his wife for a steak and Dover sole dinner at Mar-a-Lago.

Hardly, the people in China love Ivanka. If anything any advantage the US has in working with China is Ivanka not the other way around.

And yet, Trump Org wasn't winning any trademarks in China until after Trump won the election. And once he started getting favorable decisions on trademarks in China, he did a complete 180 on his attitude towards China. Suddenly he has great respect for Xi and China isn't a currency manipulator at all.

But, yeah, it's got to be a coincidence, and Xi totally isn't playing Trump like an out-of-tune ukulele.

He isn't. Playing him "like an out-of-tune ukulele" would imply that Trump is not getting the only thing he cares about in return. Trump is playing America like an out-of-tune ukulele with Xi's accompaniment.

[Paingod]

A House Democrat has introduced legislation to enhance the Constitution’s presidential removal procedures in response to concerns about President Trump’s behavior.

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.) filed the bill during the House's two-week April recess to empower former presidents and vice presidents of both parties, in coordination with the sitting vice president, to determine if a president is fit for office.

link

That makes me wonder what kind of attachment former Presidents have over the office once they leave. I mean, if I was Obama, I'd probably cry myself to sleep every night. I get ticked off when a cat knocks over a house of cards I'm working on, and that isn't an 8-year investment that made me look like I aged 20 years thanks to the stress of it.

In reality, though, I don't think we've heard a peep from him and that makes me wonder if he'd enjoy being summoned by Pence to discuss Trump's sanity.

[Remus West]

Enjoy? Doubt it. Answer the call? Undoubtedly. As would all the others.

[Max Peck]

Yeah, I'm sure this is all just a coincidence.

On April 6, Ivanka Trump's company won provisional approval from the Chinese government for three new trademarks, giving it monopoly rights to sell Ivanka brand jewelry, bags and spa services in the world's second-largest economy. That night, the first daughter and her husband, Jared Kushner, sat next to the president of China and his wife for a steak and Dover sole dinner at Mar-a-Lago.

Hardly, the people in China love Ivanka. If anything any advantage the US has in working with China is Ivanka not the other way around.

And yet, Trump Org wasn't winning any trademarks in China until after Trump won the election. And once he started getting favorable decisions on trademarks in China, he did a complete 180 on his attitude towards China. Suddenly he has great respect for Xi and China isn't a currency manipulator at all.

But, yeah, it's got to be a coincidence, and Xi totally isn't playing Trump like an out-of-tune ukulele.

He isn't. Playing him "like an out-of-tune ukulele" would imply that Trump is not getting the only thing he cares about in return. Trump is playing America like an out-of-tune ukulele with Xi's accompaniment.

Giving Trump what he wants (personal business concessions and an outward show of respect) is exactly what I mean by "playing" him (it's my metaphor, and I'll decide what it means, thank-you-very-much ). From what I can see, Trump lacks the self-awareness even to realize that he's being manipulated into altering American foreign policy (to the extent that it even exists under this administration) in China's favour.

This is exactly what your Emoluments Clause is supposed to guard against. And Trump is going to get away with it because the rubes are too dim to understand it and the GOP pols are too craven to stand up to him. (I say this as an open challenge to the Universe to once again prove me wrong. ).

[Remus West]

That's just it though. I fully believe it is not playing Trump. He knows what he is doing. He just doesn't care as long as he gets his personal concessions the world can go to hell (America first because that is his creed :insert barfing Emoji here:).

I look at it as Trump saying "give me X and I'll do Y" you look at it as Xi saying "we will give you X if you do Y". Same situation. I think my interpretation just highlights how depraved Trump is and how uncaring he is about what "getting his" does to the world.

[Max Peck]

That's just it though. I fully believe it is not playing Trump. He knows what he is doing. He just doesn't care as long as he gets his personal concessions the world can go to hell (America first because that is his creed :insert barfing Emoji here:).

I look at it as Trump saying "give me X and I'll do Y" you look at it as Xi saying "we will give you X if you do Y". Same situation. I think my interpretation just highlights how depraved Trump is and how uncaring he is about what "getting his" does to the world.

That's fine, I just wanted to clarify what I meant when I used the term. If you want to give Trump more credit for actually knowing what he's doing than I do, then fill yer boots me son.

[Paingod]

That's just it though. I fully believe it is not playing Trump. He knows what he is doing. He just doesn't care as long as he gets his...

I'd agree. This would be the margin between negligent homicide and depraved indifference murder. Trump knows but gives no shits. He only knows, though, because he's getting his benefits. He'd bumble and fumble and stammer if he was still running the negligent President line over personal gain. China wafted that ketchup-covered steak under his nose and got his undivided attention for 10 minutes.

[stessier]

That makes me wonder what kind of attachment former Presidents have over the office once they leave. I mean, if I was Obama, I'd probably cry myself to sleep every night. I get ticked off when a cat knocks over a house of cards I'm working on, and that isn't an 8-year investment that made me look like I aged 20 years thanks to the stress of it.

In reality, though, I don't think we've heard a peep from him and that makes me wonder if he'd enjoy being summoned by Pence to discuss Trump's sanity.

Common practice is the out-going president doesn't comment on the current administration. Which means unless Trump dies in office, we're going to be seeing tweets pointing out how the country is tanking the day he leaves office.

[Rip]

Yeah, I'm sure this is all just a coincidence.

On April 6, Ivanka Trump's company won provisional approval from the Chinese government for three new trademarks, giving it monopoly rights to sell Ivanka brand jewelry, bags and spa services in the world's second-largest economy. That night, the first daughter and her husband, Jared Kushner, sat next to the president of China and his wife for a steak and Dover sole dinner at Mar-a-Lago.

Hardly, the people in China love Ivanka. If anything any advantage the US has in working with China is Ivanka not the other way around.

And yet, Trump Org wasn't winning any trademarks in China until after Trump won the election. And once he started getting favorable decisions on trademarks in China, he did a complete 180 on his attitude towards China. Suddenly he has great respect for Xi and China isn't a currency manipulator at all.

But, yeah, it's got to be a coincidence, and Xi totally isn't playing Trump like an out-of-tune ukulele.

Trump Org != Ivanka. They don't like Donald but they love Ivanka. Perhaps we should have elected her POTUS?

[El Guapo]

Seems to me that the DNC should offer Nick Saban ~ $200 million under the table to run for the 2018 Alabama Senate seat as a democrat. Even if they get caught....I don't think that would stop everyone in Alabama from voting for Saban.

[Remus West]

Seems to me that the DNC should offer Nick Saban ~ $200 million under the table to run for the 2018 Alabama Senate seat as a democrat. Even if they get caught....I don't think that would stop everyone in Alabama from voting for Saban.

Hell, the DNC would probably have huge donations for that project from most other NCAA football coaches/schools.

[Pyperkub]

http://www.avclub.com/article/alex-jone ... -at-253829

Alex Jones: It's just a joke to make a few bucks, now give me my kids.

I have no idea who his wife is, but I'd feel deeply for any children raised by him.

Or, uh, maybe not:

6. Jones may have completely sabotaged his own attorney’s case by posting a video insisting that he wasn’t merely a “performance artist.” Earlier this week, Jones cut a video in which he insisted that he really believed all of the crazy conspiracies he’s spouted over the years, thus undercutting his own lawyer’s plan to claim Jones isn’t really crazy, but only plays a crazy person for entertainment purposes.

This was also a particularly dubious tactic on Jones’ part because he may have made the video while he was already under gag order — which would get him into even more trouble than he’s in already.

[Max Peck]

Yeah, I'm sure this is all just a coincidence.

On April 6, Ivanka Trump's company won provisional approval from the Chinese government for three new trademarks, giving it monopoly rights to sell Ivanka brand jewelry, bags and spa services in the world's second-largest economy. That night, the first daughter and her husband, Jared Kushner, sat next to the president of China and his wife for a steak and Dover sole dinner at Mar-a-Lago.

Hardly, the people in China love Ivanka. If anything any advantage the US has in working with China is Ivanka not the other way around.

And yet, Trump Org wasn't winning any trademarks in China until after Trump won the election. And once he started getting favorable decisions on trademarks in China, he did a complete 180 on his attitude towards China. Suddenly he has great respect for Xi and China isn't a currency manipulator at all.

But, yeah, it's got to be a coincidence, and Xi totally isn't playing Trump like an out-of-tune ukulele.

Trump Org != Ivanka. They don't like Donald but they love Ivanka. Perhaps we should have elected her POTUS?

You know who else loves Ivanka (in a totally not creepy way at all)? Pleasing those that please The Donald will take you a long way.

Or are you just switching to reflexively defending China instead of Russia this week?

[Max Peck]

http://www.avclub.com/article/alex-jone ... -at-253829

Alex Jones: It's just a joke to make a few bucks, now give me my kids.

I have no idea who his wife is, but I'd feel deeply for any children raised by him.

Or, uh, maybe not:

6. Jones may have completely sabotaged his own attorney’s case by posting a video insisting that he wasn’t merely a “performance artist.” Earlier this week, Jones cut a video in which he insisted that he really believed all of the crazy conspiracies he’s spouted over the years, thus undercutting his own lawyer’s plan to claim Jones isn’t really crazy, but only plays a crazy person for entertainment purposes.

This was also a particularly dubious tactic on Jones’ part because he may have made the video while he was already under gag order — which would get him into even more trouble than he’s in already.

Meh, that's exactly what Andy Kaufman would've done if he were in the same circumstances.

[Pyperkub]

Uh, no:

Department of Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly issued a stark warning Tuesday, calling the risk of a terror attack on the United States "as threatening today" as it was on 9/11.

As we now know, the risk on 9/11 was 100%, so no, it's definitely not as high.

[malchior]

Not only that obvious truth but the idea that 16 years of open warfare in the middle east and a complete re-shuffling of our national security organizations is not awesome. Sure he should argue that the threat is still there but that it is as threatening as 20 years ago would be a stark failure of policy. I don't think that kind of bluster is doing us any favors.

[Zarathud]

Reckless indifference to the truth.

[Kraken]

Gotta make us want that 10% increase to the military.

[Alefroth]

Hardly, the people in China love Ivanka.

They don't like Donald but they love Ivanka.

What's your basis for these claims?

[El Guapo]

Hardly, the people in China love Ivanka.

They don't like Donald but they love Ivanka.

What's your basis for these claims?

Pffff. Rip's beyond "sources" and "evidence."

[El Guapo]

I'm probably a little too invested in the GA-6 special election results this evening. The ultimate meaning of the results will be unclear no matter how it goes, and on top of that the outcome (given current polls) seems pretty set - Ossoff will come in 1st, have a handy margin over the next Republican, but will very likely fall short of the majority needed to avoid a run-off. The likely result of that run-off won't be clear until there's at least a few weeks to a month of campaigning between Ossoff and the #2 finisher.

We'll see how it goes, anyway.

[Pyperkub]

Gotta make us want that 10% increase to the military.

at the expense of everything else (but the wall).

[Holman]

I'm probably a little too invested in the GA-6 special election results this evening. The ultimate meaning of the results will be unclear no matter how it goes, and on top of that the outcome (given current polls) seems pretty set - Ossoff will come in 1st, have a handy margin over the next Republican, but will very likely fall short of the majority needed to avoid a run-off. The likely result of that run-off won't be clear until there's at least a few weeks to a month of campaigning between Ossoff and the #2 finisher.

We'll see how it goes, anyway.

I'm as invested as can be. I lived in that district during some of my growing up, and I know tons of people there.

They're going to let us down.

[Defiant]

The leader of California separatist group Yes California announced in a 1,600-word statement on Monday that he "intends to make Russia" his "new home" and is therefore withdrawing his petition for a "Calexit" referendum.

Louis Marinelli, who has spearheaded the Calexit campaign since 2015, set up a makeshift embassy in Moscow in December in partnership with far-right Russian nationalists who enjoy Kremlin support while promoting secessionist movements in Europe.

Marinelli, who campaigned for Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders but said he ultimately voted for President Donald Trump, described Yes California as a progressive initiative aimed at establishing a "liberal republic" independent of the United States. But his decision to align Yes California so publicly with Russia alienated him from the other, albeit smaller, California separatist movement known as the California Nationalist Party.

link

[Rip]

Hardly, the people in China love Ivanka.

They don't like Donald but they love Ivanka.

What's your basis for these claims?

It isn't exactly a secret.

http://www.insideedition.com/headlines/ ... d-in-china

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/05/worl ... .html?_r=0

[Holman]

Seems like a rock-solid basis for international relations and economic policy.

[Rip]

Seems like a rock-solid basis for international relations and economic policy.

I know I'm rock-solid.

[El Guapo]

Current GA-6 projections are as expected - Ossoff (D) and Handel (R) in a run-off. Question is what is Ossoff's final % of the vote.

[Defiant]

Apparently, the Republican in second place is largely doing well because of name recognition (certainly makes sense in a contest with so many candidates).

[El Guapo]

Apparently, the Republican in second place is largely doing well because of name recognition (certainly makes sense in a contest with so many candidates).

My understanding is that she's pretty well accomplished / regarded in state GOP circles (and that her second place finish was expected, although the distance between her and other GOP candidates in polls wasn't insurmountable).

[PLW]

It all turns on Fulton County.

[Alefroth]

Hardly, the people in China love Ivanka.

They don't like Donald but they love Ivanka.

What's your basis for these claims?

It isn't exactly a secret.

http://www.insideedition.com/headlines/ ... d-in-china

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/05/worl ... .html?_r=0

Some of the contributions to her popularity in the communist country are her and her family's interest in China.

[El Guapo]

It all turns on Fulton County.

Awesome.

[Holman]

Final results appear to be 48.1% for Ossoff and 19.8% for Handel, the leading Republican in this ruby-red district.

Trump has already tweeted that it was a "BIG Republican win."

[PLW]

This was the most likely result Ali along, but im still a little disappointed.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

[El Guapo]

This was the most likely result Ali along, but im still a little disappointed.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

I get you, but if anything Ossoff outperformed the pre-election polls. Generally Ossoff was getting around 45% - 46% in polling, and wound up with a little over 48%. I had dreams of mass democratic turnout pushing Ossoff above 50%, but that was always more of a prayer than a realistic hope. So the result is about as good as democrats could have expected given the polling (and the district).

We'll see how the runoff goes. Pre-election head-to-head polling between Ossoff and Handel suggested that Ossoff would start with a very very narrow lead (less than 1%). We'll see how the race changes going into the runoff, but right now it looks like a coin flip.

[El Guapo]

Updating the special election trend line: