Political Randomness

PLW · Post by **PLW** » Wed Jun 21, 2017 12:11 am

I canvassed for Parnell today. It was nice to see him do so well. Less than 3000 votes in the end. It's easy to second guess.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:07 am

When you replace your nephew with your son, that's actually the literal opposite of nepotism.

Saudi Arabia's king has appointed his son Mohammed bin Salman as crown prince - replacing his nephew, Mohammed bin Nayef, as first in line to the throne.

King Salman's decree also means Prince Mohammed bin Salman, 31, will become deputy prime minister while continuing as defence minister.

Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, 57, has been removed from his role as head of domestic security, state media say.

He has pledged allegiance to the new crown prince, news agency SPA reports.

Saudi Arabia has typically been ruled by kings in their 70s or 80s.

Prince Mohammed bin Salman's rapid ascent is seen by the younger generation as a sign that things are changing.

Before his latest promotion, he was responsible for leading Saudi Arabia's war in Yemen, overseeing the kingdom's energy policy and economic reform.

He must have already ruffled a lot of feathers in a royal family that was used to being presided over by a succession of elderly men, the BBC's Middle East editor Jeremy Bowen reports.

His father King Salman is 81 and reportedly not in the best of health, our correspondent adds.

Prince Mohammed bin Salman could end up leading Saudi Arabia for decades.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:51 am

PLW wrote:I canvassed for Parnell today. It was nice to see him do so well. Less than 3000 votes in the end. It's easy to second guess.

Thanks for doing that. On the second guessing thing, I really liked this Robert E. Lee quote I came across recently:

“We made a great mistake, Mr. Hill, in the beginning of our struggle, and I fear, in spite of all we can do, it will prove to be a fatal mistake,” he said to me, after General Bragg ceased to command the Army of Tennessee, an event Lee deplored.

“What mistake is that, general?”

“Why, sir, in the beginning we appointed all our worst generals to command the armies, and all our best generals to edit the newspapers. As you know, I have planned some campaigns and quite a number of battles. I have given the work all the care and thought I could, and sometimes, when my plans were completed, as far as I could see, they seemed to be perfect. But when I have fought them through, I have discovered defects and occasionally wondered I did not see some of the defects in advance. When it was all over, I found by reading a newspaper that these best editor generals saw all the defects plainly from the start. Unfortunately, they did not communicate their knowledge to me until it was too late.” Then, after a pause, he added, with a beautiful, grave expression I can never forget: “I have no ambition but to serve the Confederacy, and do all I can to win our independence. I an willing to serve in any capacity to which the authorities may assign me. I have done the best I could in the field, and have not succeeded as I could wish. I am willing to yield my place to these best generals, and I will do my best for the cause in editing a newspaper.”

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:36 am

Was reading a nice Twitter thread today about how the special election results were actually a really positive sign for Dems. These are districts that Democrats lost by huge margins and they narrowed that gap by something like 15% and 18%. Apply those kind of surges to more moderate districts, and you have Dems easily sweeping in 2018.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:40 am

YellowKing wrote:Was reading a nice Twitter thread today about how the special election results were actually a really positive sign for Dems. These are districts that Democrats lost by huge margins and they narrowed that gap by something like 15% and 18%. Apply those kind of surges to more moderate districts, and you have Dems easily sweeping in 2018.

Pretty much.

Partly it's the feeling of constantly losing, although the obvious reason why the democrats have lost the special elections is because they're in super republican districts (which is, you know, why Trump picked the Republicans that prompted the special election, because they were in those districts).

I'm actually less bummed out about Ossoff losing than I would have predicted.

PLW · Post by **PLW** » Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:43 am

El Guapo wrote:
PLW wrote:I canvassed for Parnell today. It was nice to see him do so well. Less than 3000 votes in the end. It's easy to second guess.
Thanks for doing that. On the second guessing thing, I really liked this Robert E. Lee quote I came across recently:

It was fun. It reminded me of going around in elementary school and getting pledges for the St. Jude's Math-a-Thon.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:50 am

El Guapo wrote:
YellowKing wrote:Was reading a nice Twitter thread today about how the special election results were actually a really positive sign for Dems. These are districts that Democrats lost by huge margins and they narrowed that gap by something like 15% and 18%. Apply those kind of surges to more moderate districts, and you have Dems easily sweeping in 2018.
Pretty much.

Partly it's the feeling of constantly losing, although the obvious reason why the democrats have lost the special elections is because they're in super republican districts (which is, you know, why Trump picked the Republicans that prompted the special election, because they were in those districts).

I'm actually less bummed out about Ossoff losing than I would have predicted.

Same. I expected him to lose. The first vote had him almost exactly where he ended up last night percentage wise. He needed to win without a runoff. Ossoff winning was more or less a small percentage chance thing. It also was turned into a battle which almost certainly changed the dynamic of the whole thing. The only real solid takeaway is that if Trump is still President, is still this unpopular, and the economy is essentially the same there will be a very high chance for a House flip. The mid-term is like 2000 Trump days away though so any relief is still far, far away.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jun 21, 2017 12:06 pm

malchior wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
YellowKing wrote:Was reading a nice Twitter thread today about how the special election results were actually a really positive sign for Dems. These are districts that Democrats lost by huge margins and they narrowed that gap by something like 15% and 18%. Apply those kind of surges to more moderate districts, and you have Dems easily sweeping in 2018.
Pretty much.

Partly it's the feeling of constantly losing, although the obvious reason why the democrats have lost the special elections is because they're in super republican districts (which is, you know, why Trump picked the Republicans that prompted the special election, because they were in those districts).

I'm actually less bummed out about Ossoff losing than I would have predicted.
Same. I expected him to lose. The first vote had him almost exactly where he ended up last night percentage wise. He needed to win without a runoff. Ossoff winning was more or less a small percentage chance thing. It also was turned into a battle which almost certainly changed the dynamic of the whole thing. The only real solid takeaway is that if Trump is still President, is still this unpopular, and the economy is essentially the same there will be a very high chance for a House flip. The mid-term is like 2000 Trump days away though so any relief is still far, far away.

Well, it depends. Heading into the first round voting I thought he had maybe like a 40% chance to win overall. At the start of this week he was a slight favorite based upon polling (which over the past month-ish averaged out to a slight Ossoff lead), albeit with some late polls showing movement towards Handel. So yesterday I figured it was a coin flip.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Jun 21, 2017 12:24 pm

I figured we were playing within the margin of error so had to fall back away from the polls. My analysis was it is a reasonably die-hard Republican district (Advantage R). Both sides were pouring in money (Push). She was a reasonably mainstream candidate and he was an unknown quantity (Advantage R). I'd argue a pitched battle favors the District's political lean due to rally to the flag effect (Advantage R). Trump is President (Advantage D). Voter suppression effects were probably limited in this particular district but the demographics didn't really favor the Ds (Push). The world is falling apart and the Republicans seem to be the cause and beneficiaries of that (mostly joking but still Advantage R). Overall big advantage R. That is admittedly a Trump-like feelings analysis but isn't too far off from how I gut check things generally. I tend to beat the coin toss so it works for me.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:40 pm

Trump isn't the only one under investigation.

Bernie Sanders was in the midst of an interview with a local TV reporter early last month when the senator fielded an unexpected question about an uncomfortable matter.

“There’s an implication, and from at least one individual, an explicit argument that when they called for an investigation into Burlington College that you used your influence to secure a loan from People’s United—”

The senator cut him off.

Sanders is used to fielding softball questions from an adoring local press, but his inquisitor, Kyle Midura of Burlington TV station WCAX, had a rare opportunity to put him on the spot. Investigative reporters had been breaking stories about a federal investigation into allegations that the senator’s wife, Jane Sanders, had committed fraud in obtaining bank loans for the now defunct Burlington College, and that Sanders’s Senate office had weighed in.

Sanders had never responded to questions about the case, but he took the bait this time. Briefly.

“Well, as you know,” he said, “it would be improp— this implication came from Donald Trump’s campaign manager in Vermont. Let me leave it at that, because it would be improper at this point for me to say anything more.”

Midura leaned in. “You’ve previously said it was nonsense.”

“Yes,” Sanders responded, “it is nonsense. But now that there is a process going on, which was initiated by Trump’s campaign manager, somebody who does this all of the time, has gone after a number of Democrats and progressives in this state. It would be improper at this point for me to add any more to that.”

End of conversation. But not the end of the investigation or the potential for damage to the senator from a small New England state who has rocketed to the top of the world of progressive politics nationwide.

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Fri Jun 23, 2017 1:22 am

Max Peck wrote:Trump isn't the only one under investigation.

Don't try and distract us from hating Trump. Everyone knows Bernie can do no wrong and Trump is the devil.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Fri Jun 23, 2017 7:40 am

Johnny Depp gets weird at Glastonbury...

Actor Johnny Depp appeared to threaten US President Donald Trump during a speech at the Glastonbury Festival.

"Can you bring Trump here?" he asked the audience, as he introduced a screening of his film The Libertine.

After receiving jeers from the crowd, he added: "You misunderstand completely. When was the last time an actor assassinated a president?"

"I want to clarify," he added, "I'm not an actor. I lie for a living [but] it's been a while. Maybe it's about time."

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Jun 23, 2017 1:39 pm

Truth.

tjg_marantz · Post by **tjg_marantz** » Fri Jun 23, 2017 6:17 pm

The latest episode of Friends Like These is something else. Check out the podcast. Interviews with people in line at a Trump rally. Not gotcha crap you usually see.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:16 am

Grover has a lesson for the kiddies.

My favorite: "Who built the road to the guitar store?"

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:39 pm

Another group gets removed from the gay pride parade:

Gay Pride Marchers Carrying Star of David Flags Kicked Out of Chicago Parade

Gay Jews need not apply.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:42 pm

Edit: What Moliere posted.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:01 pm

Holman wrote:Grover has a lesson for the kiddies.

My favorite: "Who built the road to the guitar store?"

It's funny how that's his takeaway. Alternative:

How Democrats are born: rich man refuses to share trivial amount of money that could materially improve someone else's life.

Also Grover Norquist often tells the story of how he became a Republican because his father would buy him ice cream and then eat a large portion of it and tell him that it was a "tax". So apparently the Norquist line perpetuates their family conservatism through arbitrary parental cruelty.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:01 pm

Moliere wrote:Another group gets removed from the gay pride parade:

Gay Pride Marchers Carrying Star of David Flags Kicked Out of Chicago Parade

Gay Jews need not apply.

And I know gerrymandering is preaching the to choir here buty

http://time.com/4830145/supreme-court-g ... wisconsin/

Aside from being a loyal democrat, I can empathize.

I think I may need to start and encourage every one I know to vote in the republican primaries regardless of who they are going to vote for in the general, even if that means registering as a republican. The party needs to be dismantled.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:06 pm

Moliere wrote:Another group gets removed from the gay pride parade:

Gay Pride Marchers Carrying Star of David Flags Kicked Out of Chicago Parade

Gay Jews need not apply.

Yeah this is outrageous. They view displaying a Star of David as unacceptable and don't even realize how anti-Semitic that is.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:10 pm

LordMortis wrote:
Moliere wrote:Another group gets removed from the gay pride parade:

Gay Pride Marchers Carrying Star of David Flags Kicked Out of Chicago Parade

Gay Jews need not apply.

And I know gerrymandering is preaching the to choir here buty

http://time.com/4830145/supreme-court-g ... wisconsin/

Aside from being a loyal democrat, I can empathize.

I think I may need to start and encourage every one I know to vote in the republican primaries regardless of who they are going to vote for in the general, even if that means registering as a republican. The party needs to be dismantled.

At some point I wonder whether you could bring a suit based on the constitutional clause guaranteeing each state a republican form of government. Though I'm not sure who the defendant would be.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:18 pm

Holman wrote:Grover has a lesson for the kiddies.

My favorite: "Who built the road to the guitar store?"

Not to mention the police, fire department, parks, trash collection, streetlights, snow removal, and a basket of other services (that vary by jurisdiction) that we take for granted, but would miss if they weren't there. Not a bad deal for the $1.50 cut they took on her guitar. As Oliver Wendell Holmes wrote, "Taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society." Why do Republicans hate civilization?

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:24 pm

Yeah, my dad has been in construction for 50+ years now - currently working on the East Side Access tunnel. From an early age he impressed upon me that as important as doctors, accountants and business people might be, without construction workers creating buildings and roads, it doesn't matter. It isn't arrogance, but perspective.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:26 pm

Seeing him get taken to the woodshed in that thread is comedy gold.

Zarathud · Post by **Zarathud** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:30 pm

Intolerant lesbians? I may faint...

Really, not a surprise.

Especially if you know the event. The Chicago Pride Parade isn't militant enough for this group. I was once yelled at for being too "aggressive" at the Chicago Pride Parade in the 90s, so I get the overall sentiment (even if I disagree with them on the Star on the Pride flag). Chicago leftists enjoy in-fighting as much as "fighting the man."

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:34 pm

Skinypupy wrote:Seeing him get taken to the woodshed in that thread is comedy gold.

It's just great how he (apparently) thinks that story makes him look funny / clever, when really it shows him to either be mean or inept (or both).

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:55 pm

Zarathud wrote: I was once yelled at for being too "aggressive" at the Chicago Pride Parade in the 90s,

No means no, man.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:58 pm

Zarathud wrote:Chicago leftists enjoy in-fighting as much as "fighting the man."

Fucking People's Front of Judea!

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:01 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Zarathud wrote:Chicago leftists enjoy in-fighting as much as "fighting the man."
Fucking People's Front of Judea!

Damn, that movie was genius from beginning to end.
"What have the Romans ever done for us?!"

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:07 pm

Moliere wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
Zarathud wrote:Chicago leftists enjoy in-fighting as much as "fighting the man."
Fucking People's Front of Judea!

Damn, that movie was genius from beginning to end.
"What have the Romans ever done for us?!"

Tell Grover Norquist!

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:20 pm

Zarathud wrote: I was once yelled at for being too "aggressive" at the Chicago Pride Parade in the 90s

Pictures Zarathud walking the parade as a dominatrix...

Zarathud · Post by **Zarathud** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:57 pm

I was svelte and 1/2 my size back then, but leather and latex were never my style.

Apparently being dressed like Alex P Keaton but pumping your first in the air meant something different than at a football game. How was a country boy to know?

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:45 pm

I've heard that crowd isn't big on fisting....

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jun 27, 2017 8:40 am

Good news, special election junkies. Since Jason Chaffetz is leaving the House in a few days, we'll get another special election this fall.

I'm looking forward to all the angsty hot takes after the democrats once again fail to take an extremely conservative district.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Jun 27, 2017 8:54 am

El Guapo wrote:Good news, special election junkies. Since Jason Chaffetz is leaving the House in a few days, we'll get another special election this fall.

I'm looking forward to all the angsty hot takes after the democrats once again fail to take an extremely conservative district.

Too bad Evan McMullin isn't eligible to run in that district, or it could be an amazing intra-conservative referendum on Trump. Utah would be perfect for that.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jun 27, 2017 8:57 am

Holman wrote:
El Guapo wrote:Good news, special election junkies. Since Jason Chaffetz is leaving the House in a few days, we'll get another special election this fall.

I'm looking forward to all the angsty hot takes after the democrats once again fail to take an extremely conservative district.
Too bad Evan McMullin isn't eligible to run in that district, or it could be an amazing intra-conservative referendum on Trump. Utah would be perfect for that.

I'd rather McMullin run for Senate in 2018 anyway.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Jun 27, 2017 9:21 am

El Guapo wrote:
Holman wrote:
El Guapo wrote:Good news, special election junkies. Since Jason Chaffetz is leaving the House in a few days, we'll get another special election this fall.

I'm looking forward to all the angsty hot takes after the democrats once again fail to take an extremely conservative district.
Too bad Evan McMullin isn't eligible to run in that district, or it could be an amazing intra-conservative referendum on Trump. Utah would be perfect for that.
I'd rather McMullin run for Senate in 2018 anyway.

That primary might very well turn out to be Romney vs McMullin.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jun 27, 2017 9:34 am

Holman wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
Holman wrote:
El Guapo wrote:Good news, special election junkies. Since Jason Chaffetz is leaving the House in a few days, we'll get another special election this fall.

I'm looking forward to all the angsty hot takes after the democrats once again fail to take an extremely conservative district.
Too bad Evan McMullin isn't eligible to run in that district, or it could be an amazing intra-conservative referendum on Trump. Utah would be perfect for that.
I'd rather McMullin run for Senate in 2018 anyway.
That primary might very well turn out to be Romney vs McMullin.

I assume that Romney would crush McMullin. Though it would be good if McMullin ran anyway, as he might be able to pull anti-Trump commitments out of Romney (for what those are worth).

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Tue Jun 27, 2017 9:56 am

El Guapo wrote:
Holman wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
Holman wrote:
El Guapo wrote:Good news, special election junkies. Since Jason Chaffetz is leaving the House in a few days, we'll get another special election this fall.

I'm looking forward to all the angsty hot takes after the democrats once again fail to take an extremely conservative district.
Too bad Evan McMullin isn't eligible to run in that district, or it could be an amazing intra-conservative referendum on Trump. Utah would be perfect for that.
I'd rather McMullin run for Senate in 2018 anyway.
That primary might very well turn out to be Romney vs McMullin.
I assume that Romney would crush McMullin. Though it would be good if McMullin ran anyway, as he might be able to pull anti-Trump commitments out of Romney (for what those are worth).

Hmm, let's see, a Romney commitment? As a former constituent from MA, I'd say the former governor's commitments aren't worth crap! Everything that guy said he was about when he ran for MA governor went up in smoke as soon as he started his presidential campaign.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:30 pm

I was proud of my self-control today. Sat across the aisle from Jason Chaffetz on his final flight back from DC as a congressman, and I didn't lob any f-bombs or insults his way.

Although I may have said "good riddance" a little too loud as we were getting off the plane...