Political Randomness

[Max Peck]

At least he's not claiming was drunk.

(yet)

That'll be right before he resorts to the "I now choose to live as a gay man" gambit.

[Pyperkub]

I love that Moore's first line of defense is running to Breitbart.

That's the new fault line, though. Bannon pushed Moore when McConnell was pushing Strange.

Moore is blaming the Librul Media, but there are rumblings on the far right about how quickly some Republicans are lining up to condemn him. The Bannon alt-right smells an Establishment hatchet job (although it's hard to see what McConnell gets out of giving the seat to a Democrat).

This is what the GOP civil war in 2018 will look like.

Totally agree someone organizes this. Suddenly multiple accusers come out of the woodwork 40 years after the fact? Not at all saying it didn't happen because I know nothing, but why now? This is not his first moment in the spotlight.

Neither Corfman nor any of the other women sought out The Post. While reporting a story in Alabama about supporters of Moore’s Senate campaign, a Post reporter heard that Moore allegedly had sought relationships with teenage girls. Over the ensuing three weeks, two Post reporters contacted and interviewed the four women. All were initially reluctant to speak publicly but chose to do so after multiple interviews, saying they thought it was important for people to know about their interactions with Moore. The women say they don’t know one another.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investig ... story.html

Yeah, they interviewed like 30 people and got corroborating statements.. If you actually read the article, it's really solid reporting and the hatchet job line doesn't fly at all.

[tjg_marantz]

I love that Moore's first line of defense is running to Breitbart.

That's the new fault line, though. Bannon pushed Moore when McConnell was pushing Strange.

Moore is blaming the Librul Media, but there are rumblings on the far right about how quickly some Republicans are lining up to condemn him. The Bannon alt-right smells an Establishment hatchet job (although it's hard to see what McConnell gets out of giving the seat to a Democrat).

This is what the GOP civil war in 2018 will look like.

Totally agree someone organizes this. Suddenly multiple accusers come out of the woodwork 40 years after the fact? Not at all saying it didn't happen because I know nothing, but why now? This is not his first moment in the spotlight.

Neither Corfman nor any of the other women sought out The Post. While reporting a story in Alabama about supporters of Moore’s Senate campaign, a Post reporter heard that Moore allegedly had sought relationships with teenage girls. Over the ensuing three weeks, two Post reporters contacted and interviewed the four women. All were initially reluctant to speak publicly but chose to do so after multiple interviews, saying they thought it was important for people to know about their interactions with Moore. The women say they don’t know one another.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investig ... story.html

Yeah, they interviewed like 30 people and got corroborating statements.. If you actually read the article, it's really solid reporting and the hatchet job line doesn't fly at all.

You expect too much from people, even a couple on here.

[Pyperkub]

I love that Moore's first line of defense is running to Breitbart.

That's the new fault line, though. Bannon pushed Moore when McConnell was pushing Strange.

Moore is blaming the Librul Media, but there are rumblings on the far right about how quickly some Republicans are lining up to condemn him. The Bannon alt-right smells an Establishment hatchet job (although it's hard to see what McConnell gets out of giving the seat to a Democrat).

This is what the GOP civil war in 2018 will look like.

Totally agree someone organizes this. Suddenly multiple accusers come out of the woodwork 40 years after the fact? Not at all saying it didn't happen because I know nothing, but why now? This is not his first moment in the spotlight.

Neither Corfman nor any of the other women sought out The Post. While reporting a story in Alabama about supporters of Moore’s Senate campaign, a Post reporter heard that Moore allegedly had sought relationships with teenage girls. Over the ensuing three weeks, two Post reporters contacted and interviewed the four women. All were initially reluctant to speak publicly but chose to do so after multiple interviews, saying they thought it was important for people to know about their interactions with Moore. The women say they don’t know one another.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investig ... story.html

Yeah, they interviewed like 30 people and got corroborating statements.. If you actually read the article, it's really solid reporting and the hatchet job line doesn't fly at all.

You expect too much from people, even a couple on here.

I can nudge them to open their eyes, and per the Philadelphia Story, the time to give to on someone is never.

[GreenGoo]

You expect too much from people, even a couple on here.

Is there something on your mind? This is at least the second time you've made driveby aspersions.

[tjg_marantz]

You expect too much from people, even a couple on here.

Is there something on your mind? This is at least the second time you've made driveby aspersions.

People can disagree on a lot things and that's cool. When it's party over country/decency for something so simple as this, it's disgusting.

If you somehow think you were targeted, you're not.

[GreenGoo]

No, I didn't think it was about me although I certainly considered the possibility, but if you have a problem with someone, either deal with them or let it be. I think it's the airy passive aggressive complaints that started to rub me the wrong way.

Let's say I'm just feeling irritable tonight and forget I said anything.

[Freyland]

No, I didn't think it was about me although I certainly considered the possibility, but if you have a problem with someone, either deal with them or let it be. I think it's the airy passive aggressive complaints that started to rub me the wrong way.

Let's say I'm just feeling irritable tonight and forget I said anything.

No, you're not alone Goo. I have sparred a little with him on the topic of victims, and almost commented after his first p-a statement. I'm just now seeing the second, and you have already been on top of it.

Isn't it easier to list who you're firing at, than have to list all the ones you aren't?

[malchior]

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status ... 08162?s=17

[Smoove_B]

It really is amazing. This time last year members of the GOP were super-concerned that transgendered people were going to molest children in bathrooms. This year? Men in their 30s can absolutely date 14 year old girls. What's the problem?

[tjg_marantz]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/81220218-157.html

The good old days

[Kraken]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/81220218-157.html

The good old days

You know who else wore a tan suit?

Spoiler:

[Skinypupy]

I'll just leave this here.

29% of polled Alabamans say they're more likely to vote Moore after the child molestation allegations

Well, that's...something.

[Scoop20906]

I can only assume some of those people must think the allegations are false and he is being targeted.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Smoove_B]

Well, that's...something.

I didn't read the poll yet (isn't it too early?), but is it in any way related to this opinion piece in the LA Times:

We need to talk about the segment of American culture that probably doesn’t think the allegations against Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore are particularly damning, the segment that will blanch at only two accusations in the Washington Post expose: He pursued a 14-year-old-girl without first getting her parents’ permission, and he initiated sexual contact outside of marriage. That segment is evangelicalism. In that world, which Moore travels in and I grew up in, 14-year-old girls courting adult men isn’t uncommon.

I use the phrase “14-year-old girls courting adult men,” rather than “adult men courting 14-year-old girls,” for a reason: Evangelicals routinely frame these relationships in those terms. That’s how I was introduced to these relationships as a home-schooled teenager in the 1990s, and it’s the language that my friends and I would use to discuss girls we knew who were in parent-sanctioned relationships with older men.

[Holman]

The charitable interpretation is that that they believe the allegations are a blatant lie / Satanic attack against a Godly conservative. I'm surprised the number isn't higher.

[Holman]

Well, that's...something.

I didn't read the poll yet (isn't it too early?), but is it in any way related to this opinion piece in the LA Times:

We need to talk about the segment of American culture that probably doesn’t think the allegations against Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore are particularly damning, the segment that will blanch at only two accusations in the Washington Post expose: He pursued a 14-year-old-girl without first getting her parents’ permission, and he initiated sexual contact outside of marriage. That segment is evangelicalism. In that world, which Moore travels in and I grew up in, 14-year-old girls courting adult men isn’t uncommon.

I use the phrase “14-year-old girls courting adult men,” rather than “adult men courting 14-year-old girls,” for a reason: Evangelicals routinely frame these relationships in those terms. That’s how I was introduced to these relationships as a home-schooled teenager in the 1990s, and it’s the language that my friends and I would use to discuss girls we knew who were in parent-sanctioned relationships with older men.

I read that piece, and the home-schooling world it describes is much smaller than 29% of Alabama Christians. 32-14 would have been weird in any Southern Baptist circles I've heard of. Moore doesn't seem to have been part of any insular set but rather the kind of mainstream Evangelical church that successful professionals attended.

It's telling that Moore always made sure to meet his underage date around the corner from her mother's house. He couldn't go to the door to pick her up.

[Moliere]

Advertisers Ditch Sean Hannity Over His Coverage Of Roy Moore’s Alleged Pursuit of Teens

At least five companies have announced they will not advertise during Sean Hannity’s TV and radio shows following the host’s coverage of Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore, who is accused of sexual misconduct with a 14-year-old.

Eloquii, a plus-size clothing retailer, was the first company to publicly distance themselves from the right-wing personality, followed by 23 and me, Nature’s Bounty, Keurig and Realtor.com.

[Holman]

link

Keurig: we're not going to advertise on Hannity because we don't like what he's doing

#BoycottKeurig crowd: we're boycotting you because it's wrong not to do business with someone because you don't like what they're doing

Genius.

[PLW]

That poll was 53% people who are 65 or older. I suppose that mirrors the voting pop, but not the pop in general.

[El Guapo]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/sta ... 7058283520

Emerging polling average seems to be around Moore +2 / +3. Which is still a reasonable Moore lead, and which would probably (if the election were held todayish) probably equate to a 70%ish chance of a Moore victory (it is, after all, only slightly below where Northam's polling average was in the days leading up to the VA election). But a Jones victory is finally plausible-ish, especially if Moore's situation continues to deteriorate - e.g. he keeps slipping as additional polls come out this week, additional Moore accusers come forward, and/or Moore does something else completely crazy and objectionable (to Alabama voters).

One downside now for democrats is that whereas before the Moore scandal broke, a Moore victory of only like 3 points or something in Alabama would have terrified the national GOP, a narrow victory now would be seen as solely attributable to the unique circumstances of Roy Moore as a candidate.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

I'm not sure that I have that much faith in the polling of this race in Alabama; this seems like an echo of what happened in the presidential race last year. My guess is that people are more likely to rebuke Moore in polls than they are once they are actually voting. I would be genuinely shocked if Moore ends up losing, no matter what else may come out about him.

[El Guapo]

I'm not sure that I have that much faith in the polling of this race in Alabama; this seems like an echo of what happened in the presidential race last year. My guess is that people are more likely to rebuke Moore in polls than they are once they are actually voting. I would be genuinely shocked if Moore ends up losing, no matter what else may come out about him.

FWIW the polling in the presidential race last year was fine - the final average was something like Clinton +2 to +4, and Clinton ultimately 'won' the vote by a little over 2 percentage points. To the extent that there was real polling error, it was a failure to detect late and sharp movement against Clinton in WI / PA / MI (#ThanksComey), but by definition it's hard to catch last minute deciders in polls. And to the extent that there's polling error, that can cut either way.

I do agree that Moore is probably still going to win (unless there's more dramatic events before the election). But whereas I would've been shocked by a Jones victory a few weeks ago, now I would just be somewhat surprised.

538 lays out Jones's path to victory in the race. In brief:

So the path for Jones is probably:
1.Holding down Moore’s margin in rural counties (where many whites without a college degree live), or at least hoping that turnout in these counties is depressed.
2.Winning by an overwhelming margin in the majority-black counties.
3.Winning big in the urban areas around Birmingham, Huntsville, Mobile and Montgomery.

[El Guapo]

I wonder what MSD is thinking about this right now.

[Captain Caveman]

So I was in Birmingham last week. I was being driven around by a local after the news had broken on Thursday. I said something to the effect of, "I wonder if this is just the tip of the iceberg and more stories will come out". Her response? "There have been rumors about him for a long time. And not just with girls...".

So that's just total and complete rumor-mongering but I thought I'd share.

Oh, and Birmingham had about a 10 to 1 Jones to Moore yard sign ratio. But of course Birmingham is nothing like the rest of the state.

[Holman]

When I visited my parents (affluent coastal community, overwhelmingly white) before the primary, I was surprised to see many signs supporting Strange and almost none for Moore. I have to believe that at least some of the educated Republicans repelled by Moore in the summer will find it even harder to hold their noses and vote for him after these revelations.

If there is more news soon, I expect the Alabama Guvnah and Legislatuhs to move the election into next year for a do-over.

Oh, and Birmingham had about a 10 to 1 Jones to Moore yard sign ratio. But of course Birmingham is nothing like the rest of the state.

Birmingham is Alabama's Atlanta.

[Captain Caveman]

And now there's news that Gloria Allred is holding a press conference later today with another Moore accuser.

Unfortunately, having Allred involved will just give more oxygen to the Moore defenders.

[El Guapo]

When I visited my parents (affluent coastal community, overwhelmingly white) before the primary, I was surprised to see many signs supporting Strange and almost none for Moore. I have to believe that at least some of the educated Republicans repelled by Moore in the summer will find it even harder to hold their noses and vote for him after these revelations.

If there is more news soon, I expect the Alabama Guvnah and Legislatuhs to move the election into next year for a do-over.

Oh, and Birmingham had about a 10 to 1 Jones to Moore yard sign ratio. But of course Birmingham is nothing like the rest of the state.

Birmingham is Alabama's Atlanta.

Although winning Birmingham by an overwhelming margin is party of Jones's route to victory.

What are the procedures around moving the election? I have been thinking lately that late changes in how an election is conducted are one remaining untapped source of partisan shenanigans. Like, is there anything stopping the legislature from moving the election literally the day before the vote (say), if polling at that point showed Moore consistently behind?

[Captain Caveman]

Delaying the election is shady as fuck. How can this be an option whenever a party fears their candidate is in trouble? No way they'd be considering this if Jones was the one accused. It's just totally anti-democratic....

[Pyperkub]

I wonder what MSD is thinking about this right now.

I expect he's on the "liberal media is out to get him" train.

[El Guapo]

Delaying the election is shady as fuck. How can this be an option whenever a party fears their candidate is in trouble? No way they'd be considering this if Jones was the one accused. It's just totally anti-democratic....

Oh, it would absolutely be shady as fuck. I do expect it to happen eventually in a situation like this, though (even if it doesn't happen in this election).

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Delaying the election is shady as fuck. How can this be an option whenever a party fears their candidate is in trouble? No way they'd be considering this if Jones was the one accused. It's just totally anti-democratic....

Oh, it would absolutely be shady as fuck. I do expect it to happen eventually in a situation like this, though (even if it doesn't happen in this election).

I surprised it hasn't already happened in NC; their legislature had zero qualms about doing anything to keep power.

I'm not sure about Alabama, but aren't election dates often spelled out in the state constitution? If so, that at least makes it harder to change.

[Paingod]

This weekend, after a couple glasses of wine, my wife asked me which I'd choose as a Democratic candidate. Michelle Obama or Joe Biden.

I told her that I believed Joe might have a better chance at winning over idiots that voted for Trump in the last election based solely on Hillary being a woman and I wanted every edge I could get to displace and oust the current old rotten fruitbasket in the office.

My wife's response was to become extremely enraged with me, claiming I was showing my 'true colors' by not supporting women. I tried to explain that my choice is based on what I perceived as the nation's poor judgement and not my own bias for or against women, but she'd have none of it. She roared about how Democrats were cleaning house in elections now and how I needed to have faith that women could get the job done! I countered that I had faith in the last election, too, when everyone predicted Trump had a 10% chance of winning and that there was NO WAY he'd get elected. She countered with a rambling retort about how women can do the job just as well as men could, better even! Instead of fighting an enraged tipsy wife on a feminism bender, I bowed out and let her stew.

It was a bad night all around.

[Smoove_B]

This weekend, after a couple glasses of wine, my wife asked me which I'd choose as a Democratic candidate. Michelle Obama or Joe Biden.

[Captain Caveman]

Mitch McConnell just stated that he believes the women accusing Moore, and that Moore should "step aside".

Did not see that coming.

[Smoove_B]

I guessing McConnell is thinking about the long-con and the bigger picture for the GOP if Moore is elected. The fact that he'd take this bold stance so publicly probably means he's experiencing true fear.

[insert Starship Troopers picture]

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Mitch McConnell just stated that he believes the women accusing Moore, and that Moore should "step aside".

Did not see that coming.

McConnell (and most GOP senators) wanted nothing to do with Moore even before the allegations came out. It's not super surprising that he would now try to use these allegations to get someone else on the ballot (if that's possible).

[malchior]

He is afraid of the civil war but can't do anything about it. He is just trying to salvage what he can. Sort of too late since the horse is well out of the barn and is out in the pasture harassing all the mares.

[Moliere]

I guessing McConnell is thinking about the long-con and the bigger picture for the GOP if Moore is elected. The fact that he'd take this bold stance so publicly probably means he's experiencing true fear.

[El Guapo]

Mitch McConnell just stated that he believes the women accusing Moore, and that Moore should "step aside".

Did not see that coming.

May be prompted by Moore sliding in recent polls (I imagine that McConnell also has access to his own polling, which may be saying the same thing). Of course, I imagine that McConnell's approval rating in Alabama is pretty bad - possible that this is kind of a win-win for McConnell: by condemning Moore he limits damage to the national GOP, while not really hurting Moore's chance in Alabama.

Also possible that doing this gives the Alabama governor more justification for postponing the election, if that's what they ultimately want to do - basically pressure Moore to step aside, then once that happens say "it's too late to replace him on the ballots, but the people of Alabama deserve a real choice which they are now denied with Moore bowing out, therefore we need to postpone the election in order to give people two real candidates".