Paingod wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:20 pm
This weekend, after a couple glasses of wine, my wife asked me which I'd choose as a Democratic candidate. Michelle Obama or Joe Biden.
My radio told me this morning that Biden had refused to rule out running in 2020. It's a college station whose news items are never more than two sentences long, so it might mean nothing. (The same report told me Bill Gates is giving huge bucks to Alzheimers research because he might believe that we're on the brink of a cure.)
As much as I like Biden personally and respect him professionally, running an Old Guard from the Establishment might not be the Democrats' smartest move. It's too early to say whether the electorate will prefer another radical change or restoration of the safe center that they rejected last time around. I think Joe missed his opening.
Also, Biden turns 75 in November. If he runs for president in 2020, he'll be 77 for most of the campaign, and turn 78 shortly after the election. That would smash the record for oldest man becoming President (which is, sadly, Donald Trump), and that's a big ask of a 78-year old man.
The Washington Post today suggested Terry McAuliffe, the outgoing governor of Virginia, as a possible 2020 candidate.
Captain Caveman wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:57 am
And now there's news that Gloria Allred is holding a press conference later today with another Moore accuser.
Unfortunately, having Allred involved will just give more oxygen to the Moore defenders.
Getting Allred involved is a terrible idea all around.
Paingod wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:20 pm
This weekend, after a couple glasses of wine, my wife asked me which I'd choose as a Democratic candidate. Michelle Obama or Joe Biden.
I told her that I believed Joe might have a better chance at winning over idiots that voted for Trump in the last election based solely on Hillary being a woman and I wanted every edge I could get to displace and oust the current old rotten fruitbasket in the office.
My wife's response was to become extremely enraged with me, claiming I was showing my 'true colors' by not supporting women. I tried to explain that my choice is based on what I perceived as the nation's poor judgement and not my own bias for or against women, but she'd have none of it. She roared about how Democrats were cleaning house in elections now and how I needed to have faith that women could get the job done! I countered that I had faith in the last election, too, when everyone predicted Trump had a 10% chance of winning and that there was NO WAY he'd get elected. She countered with a rambling retort about how women can do the job just as well as men could, better even! Instead of fighting an enraged tipsy wife on a feminism bender, I bowed out and let her stew.
It was a bad night all around.
I'm pretty sure if I were asked this question, I would have answered Biden as well (my age related post above notwithstanding) since he has political experience and Michelle Obama doesn't really have any.
But the "it's a TRAP" .gif from earlier is appropriate. Knowing what you've told us about your wife, you clearly answered that question wrong, even if it was still the "correct" answer.
Paingod wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:20 pm
This weekend, after a couple glasses of wine, my wife asked me which I'd choose as a Democratic candidate. Michelle Obama or Joe Biden.
My radio told me this morning that Biden had refused to rule out running in 2020. It's a college station whose news items are never more than two sentences long, so it might mean nothing. (The same report told me Bill Gates is giving huge bucks to Alzheimers research because he might believe that we're on the brink of a cure.)
As much as I like Biden personally and respect him professionally, running an Old Guard from the Establishment might not be the Democrats' smartest move. It's too early to say whether the electorate will prefer another radical change or restoration of the safe center that they rejected last time around. I think Joe missed his opening.
From his comments it's pretty clear that Biden is at least leaning towards running. I'd say it's a 75%+ chance at this point.
Personally I love Biden, so I hope that he does run. I know that he's 'establishment', but he's also pretty good at the emoting / connecting with people stuff and can talk about economic inequality issues pretty powerfully, so I think he'd be in a pretty good position. Though I worry about his actuarially given his age, but that'll just put more pressure on his VP choice.
pr0ner wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:15 pm
The Washington Post today suggested Terry McAuliffe, the outgoing governor of Virginia, as a possible 2020 candidate.
I don't know much about McAuliffe's politics, and I'm reasonably confident that I would ultimately be fine with him as a candidate, but politically he seems like a terrible choice. Old guard and too tied to the Clintons - too many of the establishment negatives without the same benefits that Biden would bring. Unless he's a better candidate than I think he is, I suppose.
pr0ner wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:15 pm
The Washington Post today suggested Terry McAuliffe, the outgoing governor of Virginia, as a possible 2020 candidate.
I don't know much about McAuliffe's politics, and I'm reasonably confident that I would ultimately be fine with him as a candidate, but politically he seems like a terrible choice. Old guard and too tied to the Clintons - too many of the establishment negatives without the same benefits that Biden would bring. Unless he's a better candidate than I think he is, I suppose.
My first thought about McAuliffe running for governor in VA is that he was too tied to the Clintons to win here, and yet he did win.
I have a feeling that, as you've said, his Clinton ties would be a bigger issue nationally than they ever were on a state level.
pr0ner wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:15 pm
The Washington Post today suggested Terry McAuliffe, the outgoing governor of Virginia, as a possible 2020 candidate.
I don't know much about McAuliffe's politics, and I'm reasonably confident that I would ultimately be fine with him as a candidate, but politically he seems like a terrible choice. Old guard and too tied to the Clintons - too many of the establishment negatives without the same benefits that Biden would bring. Unless he's a better candidate than I think he is, I suppose.
My first thought about McAuliffe running for governor in VA is that he was too tied to the Clintons to win here, and yet he did win.
I have a feeling that, as you've said, his Clinton ties would be a bigger issue nationally than they ever were on a state level.
Yeah if nothing else I assume that the Sanders wing of the party would revolt against McAuliffe to an extent that wouldn't be worth whatever benefits / upsides that he brings.
What do you think of him? How was he as a governor? The only policy specifics that I know of him are his felon voter reenfranchisement efforts, which I do like.
pr0ner wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:15 pm
The Washington Post today suggested Terry McAuliffe, the outgoing governor of Virginia, as a possible 2020 candidate.
I don't know much about McAuliffe's politics, and I'm reasonably confident that I would ultimately be fine with him as a candidate, but politically he seems like a terrible choice. Old guard and too tied to the Clintons - too many of the establishment negatives without the same benefits that Biden would bring. Unless he's a better candidate than I think he is, I suppose.
My first thought about McAuliffe running for governor in VA is that he was too tied to the Clintons to win here, and yet he did win.
I have a feeling that, as you've said, his Clinton ties would be a bigger issue nationally than they ever were on a state level.
Yeah if nothing else I assume that the Sanders wing of the party would revolt against McAuliffe to an extent that wouldn't be worth whatever benefits / upsides that he brings.
What do you think of him? How was he as a governor? The only policy specifics that I know of him are his felon voter reenfranchisement efforts, which I do like.
I didn't vote for him in 2013 (I voted for the Libertarian candidate), but I've had very few issues with what McAuliffe has done as governor. The biggest (and this is probably recency bias) is what irritates a lot of Northern Virginians, and that's perpetual kicking the can down the road in terms of WMATA funding.
Everything else he's done has been perfectly reasonable. Virginia has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation, there don't seem to be any real budget struggles, and even his pandering of the Redskins by taking potshots at Maryland has been funny.
Captain Caveman wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:28 pm
Mitch McConnell just stated that he believes the women accusing Moore, and that Moore should "step aside".
Did not see that coming.
McConnell (and most GOP senators) wanted nothing to do with Moore even before the allegations came out. It's not super surprising that he would now try to use these allegations to get someone else on the ballot (if that's possible).
Captain Caveman wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:28 pm
Mitch McConnell just stated that he believes the women accusing Moore, and that Moore should "step aside".
Did not see that coming.
McConnell (and most GOP senators) wanted nothing to do with Moore even before the allegations came out. It's not super surprising that he would now try to use these allegations to get someone else on the ballot (if that's possible).
Not possible
Seems like they're looking into the possibility of a write-in candidate? I can't imagine that a write-in would have any chance, though.
Captain Caveman wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:28 pm
Mitch McConnell just stated that he believes the women accusing Moore, and that Moore should "step aside".
Did not see that coming.
McConnell (and most GOP senators) wanted nothing to do with Moore even before the allegations came out. It's not super surprising that he would now try to use these allegations to get someone else on the ballot (if that's possible).
Not possible
Seems like they're looking into the possibility of a write-in candidate? I can't imagine that a write-in would have any chance, though.
It's potentially viable for them to coalesce around Strange as a write-in *if* Moore bows out of the race (though there's no indication of that as of yet from Moore). If Moore doesn't bow out...seems like the surest way to a Jones victory.
Captain Caveman wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:28 pm
Mitch McConnell just stated that he believes the women accusing Moore, and that Moore should "step aside".
Did not see that coming.
McConnell (and most GOP senators) wanted nothing to do with Moore even before the allegations came out. It's not super surprising that he would now try to use these allegations to get someone else on the ballot (if that's possible).
Not possible
Seems like they're looking into the possibility of a write-in candidate? I can't imagine that a write-in would have any chance, though.
It's potentially viable for them to coalesce around Strange as a write-in *if* Moore bows out of the race (though there's no indication of that as of yet from Moore). If Moore doesn't bow out...seems like the surest way to a Jones victory.
Someone from Alabama should start a twitter campaign to write in Strange. Does Russia have a territory named Alabama we could contact to get that done?
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
Captain Caveman wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:28 pm
Mitch McConnell just stated that he believes the women accusing Moore, and that Moore should "step aside".
Did not see that coming.
McConnell (and most GOP senators) wanted nothing to do with Moore even before the allegations came out. It's not super surprising that he would now try to use these allegations to get someone else on the ballot (if that's possible).
Not possible
Seems like they're looking into the possibility of a write-in candidate? I can't imagine that a write-in would have any chance, though.
It's potentially viable for them to coalesce around Strange as a write-in *if* Moore bows out of the race (though there's no indication of that as of yet from Moore). If Moore doesn't bow out...seems like the surest way to a Jones victory.
Someone from Alabama should start a twitter campaign to write in Strange. Does Russia have a territory named Alabama we could contact to get that done?
The democrats really need to get a foreign patron to counter-balance Russia. Maybe China is interested?
Isn't this seat up again in 2020? Seems like McConnell would be okay with a Dem winning now since he'd likely lose in 2020 if they nominated any sane Republican. But if Moore wins, he could be a shit-stirrer and an unpredictable element for a long, long time. Also by distancing himself now, McConnell tries to keep some space between the GOP and this particular brand of nuttiness (the line between which is getting blurrier all the time).
Captain Caveman wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:28 pm
Mitch McConnell just stated that he believes the women accusing Moore, and that Moore should "step aside".
Did not see that coming.
McConnell (and most GOP senators) wanted nothing to do with Moore even before the allegations came out. It's not super surprising that he would now try to use these allegations to get someone else on the ballot (if that's possible).
Not possible
Seems like they're looking into the possibility of a write-in candidate? I can't imagine that a write-in would have any chance, though.
It's potentially viable for them to coalesce around Strange as a write-in *if* Moore bows out of the race (though there's no indication of that as of yet from Moore). If Moore doesn't bow out...seems like the surest way to a Jones victory.
Even if Moore bows out, his name is on the ballot as the GOP candidate. There will be plenty of low-info voters who don't get the message that they're supposed to forget Moore and write-in Strange. They'll just remember liking Moore and be happy to vote for him.
Captain Caveman wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:55 pm
Isn't this seat up again in 2020? Seems like McConnell would be okay with a Dem winning now since he'd likely lose in 2020 if they nominated any sane Republican. But if Moore wins, he could be a shit-stirrer and an unpredictable element for a long, long time. Also by distancing himself now, McConnell tries to keep some space between the GOP and this particular brand of nuttiness (the line between which is getting blurrier all the time).
No, Moore losing would be a disaster for McConnell. It could easily kill the GOP's tax reform bill, assuming that they don't get it done before Jones took the seat - it would reduce their margin to 1 GOP senator, and keeping defections on the bill to 2 is going to be hard enough for him as it is. Moore losing would also *dramatically* raise the odds that the democrats take the Senate in 2019, because the democrats are probably going to win the NV and AZ seats. Not that it would be easy for democrats to keep all their competitive senate seats, but with the national environment what it is it's at least doable. And once the Republicans lose one chamber of Congress, their agenda hopes are pretty much dead.
Captain Caveman wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:55 pm
Isn't this seat up again in 2020? Seems like McConnell would be okay with a Dem winning now since he'd likely lose in 2020 if they nominated any sane Republican. But if Moore wins, he could be a shit-stirrer and an unpredictable element for a long, long time. Also by distancing himself now, McConnell tries to keep some space between the GOP and this particular brand of nuttiness (the line between which is getting blurrier all the time).
No, Moore losing would be a disaster for McConnell. It could easily kill the GOP's tax reform bill, assuming that they don't get it done before Jones took the seat - it would reduce their margin to 1 GOP senator, and keeping defections on the bill to 2 is going to be hard enough for him as it is. Moore losing would also *dramatically* raise the odds that the democrats take the Senate in 2019, because the democrats are probably going to win the NV and AZ seats. Not that it would be easy for democrats to keep all their competitive senate seats, but with the national environment what it is it's at least doable. And once the Republicans lose one chamber of Congress, their agenda hopes are pretty much dead.
Yet, disaster of not, McConnell has disowned Moore and called for his withdrawal from the race. McConnell is thinking long term, strategicallyhere. Moore might be great running in Alabama but he's a disaster for the national party in the white middle to upper class neighborhoods that Gillespie lost in Virginia. Moore and his brand of backwards politics would be toxic to this group, and this is the group that the Republicans can't afford to alienate any more than they have already. The political attacks ads write themselves.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
Menendez jury deadlocked - I guess a hung jury. Not sure if DOJ will go for it again, but even if so, it means that Menendez will almost definitely last until Christie leaves office, and quite possibly will serve out his term.
Okay, the woman's testimony today is pretty devastating. It goes beyond groping to attempted rape, and her recounting of the episode when she was 15 just shows how much harm the incident did to her. It takes on a whole new emotional resonance when you see someone talk about it.
All that, and she brought receipts with the yearbook entry. I'd be surprised of Moore lasts much longer... there are likely many more women like this.
Captain Caveman wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:03 pm
Okay, the woman's testimony today is pretty devastating. It goes beyond groping to attempted rape, and her recounting of the episode when she was 15 just shows how much harm the incident did to her. It takes on a whole new emotional resonance when you see someone talk about it.
All that, and she brought receipts with the yearbook entry. I'd be surprised of Moore lasts much longer... there are likely many more women like this.
The feeling of dejavu here could not be stronger. This is EXACTLY how I felt when the shit went down with Trump and the "grab them by the pussy" comments on tape. I thought, that's it. He's done. No way he could come back from this. In a decent society with a rational electorate, there is no way this guy could possibly get elected.
We all know how that turned out.
If anyone can provide a convincing reason why Moore's run for Senate will turn out differently, I'm all ears.
Just 'cause you feel it, doesn't mean it's there -- Radiohead
Do you believe me? Do you trust me? Do you like me? 😳
These are CHILDREN. He's a pedophile. If the GOP wants to go all in defending a child molester, they are more deranged than I could ever imagine and deserve the reputation they're cultivating and the consequences their party will face.
Last edited by Captain Caveman on Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Captain Caveman wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:03 pm
Okay, the woman's testimony today is pretty devastating. It goes beyond groping to attempted rape, and her recounting of the episode when she was 15 just shows how much harm the incident did to her. It takes on a whole new emotional resonance when you see someone talk about it.
All that, and she brought receipts with the yearbook entry. I'd be surprised of Moore lasts much longer... there are likely many more women like this.
Ye of little faith... :/
Wait until a male accuses him of inappropriate behaviour. Actually, not even sure that'll be enough.
New Roy Moore accuser Beverly Young Nelson says in tears that when she was 16, Moore groped her in his car parked near a dumpster behind the restaurant where she worked. "I thought that he was going to rape me..."
Ms. Nelson's printed statement includes a picture of Moore's note in her yearbook...
They rallied around Clinton exactly like Republicans rallied around Trump, and Alabama Republicans are rallying around Moore. There needs to be some soul searching on the left here also.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
tjg_marantz wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:24 pm
New Roy Moore accuser Beverly Young Nelson says in tears that when she was 16, Moore groped her in his car parked near a dumpster behind the restaurant where she worked. "I thought that he was going to rape me..."
Ms. Nelson's printed statement includes a picture of Moore's note in her yearbook...
Kayla Moore, wife of Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore, shared a letter on Facebook indicating support from more than 50 Alabama pastors...
..."For decades, Roy Moore has been an immovable rock in the culture wars - a bold defender of the "little guy," a just judge to those who came before his court, a warrior for the unborn child, defender of the sanctity of marriage, and a champion for religious liberty. Judge Moore has stood in the gap for us, taken the brunt of the attack, and has done so with a rare, unconquerable resolve."
In other words, support the culture wars, and all your sins are washed away, and children be damned.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Captain Caveman wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:11 pm
These are CHILDREN. He's a pedophile. If the GOP wants to go all in defending a child molester, they are more deranged than I could ever imagine and deserve the reputation they're cultivating and the consequences their party will face.
They rallied around Clinton exactly like Republicans rallied around Trump, and Alabama Republicans are rallying around Moore. There needs to be some soul searching on the left here also.
That article makes some really good points. I hadn't been thinking about how much daylight there is between the old allegations against Clinton and those currently taking down men accused of sexual misconduct left and right. Upon reflection, the clear answer is, not much.
Just 'cause you feel it, doesn't mean it's there -- Radiohead
Do you believe me? Do you trust me? Do you like me? 😳
They rallied around Clinton exactly like Republicans rallied around Trump, and Alabama Republicans are rallying around Moore. There needs to be some soul searching on the left here also.
That article makes some really good points. I hadn't been thinking about how much daylight there is between the old allegations against Clinton and those currently taking down men accused of sexual misconduct left and right. Upon reflection, the clear answer is, not much.
And the sexual harassment accusations of Jones and Willey … well, they’re complicated. Jones’s claims are serious if true, but have been largely shown to be false. Basically, Jones alleged that Bill Clinton had a "distinguishing mark" on his penis that both doctors and Monica Lewinsky said he did not have. That casts doubt on whether the incident happened as she alleged it did. Willey’s accusation is less clearly fallacious, but several factors cast serious doubt on it, and it’s overall much less credible than Broaddrick’s.
However, I do grant that the courts tend to be very difficult on these questions. Still, I think Starr would have done his best to crucify Clinton on these, and couldn't.
My biggest issue with Moore, is that he runs as a "family-values" Republican, while he clearly believes that shouldn't apply to him (and it's the only reason he gets the votes) which seems to be a theme here.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
This is all about the civil war in the GOP. Morality and Democrats are side issues. If Moore wins this seat, the handwriting is on the wall for McConnell's establishment.
Never thought I'd find myself cheering on establishment Republicans. Things can always get worse.
Seems like this could go pretty well for the GOP. Moore is elected and seated, then they vote to expel him. I assume that would lead to a special election which they'd be sure to win.
