The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

[Remus West]

One might think you're suggesting the Orange Mancheeto has a guilty conscience.

That would require a minimal level of humanity, though.

Guilty conscience? Nope. Concern? Possibly. I really hope Flynn has flipped and his testimony can end this national nightmare but I doubt it. I doubt the later not the former.

[msteelers]

Of course, it's possible that he's getting such an easy go of it because the info he has is blockbuster good, but I'm not sure how we have any way of knowing that at this point.

That's another thing that gets me. Let's pretend that Flynn gave Mueller enough to drag Trump out of the Oval in handcuffs... Trump's supporters aren't going to take that lying down. There would be riots.

[El Guapo]

The other big wildcard here is when and if Mueller has sufficient evidence on Trump of crimes, what does he do? There are debates over whether the president *can* be indicted while in office (including a related argument I've heard, which is that the President can be indicted while in office but can't be *tried / convicted* while in office). So Mueller could:

(1) Indict Trump and argue that the President can be indicted, tried, and convicted while in office (you imagine this question would go to the Supreme Court fairly quickly);
(2) Indict Trump, say he can't be tried while in office, but leave it for Congress to start impeachment proceedings (or not);
(3) Indict others involved in the crimes, and name Trump as an "unindicted co-conspirator" (I believe this was done in Watergate). This could prompt consideration of impeachment, without ruling out #1
(4) Issue some sort of report to Congress detailing the crimes to prompt impeachment (or not) - this is what Ken Starr did, although he had a different legal role than Mueller.

And who knows what Mueller's team has been digging up for legal precedent on these questions.

[Hamlet3145]

If Flynn is pleading guilty for one count of lying to the FBI, he absolutely flipped.

[El Guapo]

Should we be getting our hopes up already? What are the chances that he is only charged with lying to the FBI because that's all that Mueller can prove at this point?

Doubtful. The dude was just caught planning a freaking kidnapping while national security advisor. He's been on the payroll of some shady motherfuckers. He was in contact with Russians making deals to lessen sanctions. The guy was central to a lot, and the fact that he's only getting charged with lying means that he's singing.

But that's the thing that gets me. The National Security Advisor planning a kidnapping while in office is a huge friggin deal. Would Mueller let that go entirely just to flip on somebody higher up the chain?

I share your doubts here. I'd feel a lot better if Flynn were cutting a plea deal AND being charged with something a little more substantive.

Of course, it's possible that he's getting such an easy go of it because the info he has is blockbuster good, but I'm not sure how we have any way of knowing that at this point.

He hasn't actually pled guilty yet, right? Once we have the plea we should know a lot more.

[malchior]

Plea hearing is right now (10:30 AM). As soon as they publish we'll know more. I don't have an issue that the charge is 'minor'. Mueller could be dangling bigger charges. I imagine we'll see what the agreement looks like about terms of cooperation soon enough.

[Holman]

Should we be getting our hopes up already? What are the chances that he is only charged with lying to the FBI because that's all that Mueller can prove at this point?

Doubtful. The dude was just caught planning a freaking kidnapping while national security advisor. He's been on the payroll of some shady motherfuckers. He was in contact with Russians making deals to lessen sanctions. The guy was central to a lot, and the fact that he's only getting charged with lying means that he's singing.

But that's the thing that gets me. The National Security Advisor planning a kidnapping while in office is a huge friggin deal. Would Mueller let that go entirely just to flip on somebody higher up the chain?

Does Flynn's guilty plea to today's charge preclude further charges down the line?

If necessary, can't the kidnapping indictment simply come later?

[Smoove_B]

What's funny is that there are likely investigators hitting F5 on the Trump Twitter page right now, waiting to capture the next incriminating thing he shares.

[malchior]

Should we be getting our hopes up already? What are the chances that he is only charged with lying to the FBI because that's all that Mueller can prove at this point?

Doubtful. The dude was just caught planning a freaking kidnapping while national security advisor. He's been on the payroll of some shady motherfuckers. He was in contact with Russians making deals to lessen sanctions. The guy was central to a lot, and the fact that he's only getting charged with lying means that he's singing.

But that's the thing that gets me. The National Security Advisor planning a kidnapping while in office is a huge friggin deal. Would Mueller let that go entirely just to flip on somebody higher up the chain?

Does Flynn's guilty plea to today's charge preclude further charges down the line?

If necessary, can't the kidnapping indictment simply come later?

This has been something I've been thinking about - who has authority to offer immunity. Is it Mueller himself or does he have to go to Rosenstein?

[El Guapo]

Should we be getting our hopes up already? What are the chances that he is only charged with lying to the FBI because that's all that Mueller can prove at this point?

Doubtful. The dude was just caught planning a freaking kidnapping while national security advisor. He's been on the payroll of some shady motherfuckers. He was in contact with Russians making deals to lessen sanctions. The guy was central to a lot, and the fact that he's only getting charged with lying means that he's singing.

But that's the thing that gets me. The National Security Advisor planning a kidnapping while in office is a huge friggin deal. Would Mueller let that go entirely just to flip on somebody higher up the chain?

Does Flynn's guilty plea to today's charge preclude further charges down the line?

If necessary, can't the kidnapping indictment simply come later?

In theory, I believe. However, I am sure that Flynn's cooperation agreement is conditioned on their not being further charges. And I doubt that Flynn would ever have considered a plea agreement that included the kidnapping charge, given the prison term that would likely result in.

[El Guapo]

https://twitter.com/CurtisHouck/status/ ... 7236235266

[Ralph-Wiggum]

[Octavious]

And yet Fox News has a headline about Clinton. LOL. And the White House is considering this a win. MAGA

[pr0ner]

[msteelers]

And yet Fox News has a headline about Clinton. LOL. And the White House is considering this a win. MAGA

Whoever is filling in for Brian Kilmeade this morning on the radio is ALL IN on Clinton. He briefly mentioned Flynn, said it’s a big nothing-burger, and said Mueller is wasting his time when he should be investigating the Clintons, the “Bonnie and Clyde” of our era.

[malchior]

Wow - this is pure insanity. Everything we have suspected is mostly validated now. At least with respect to Trump lying about talking to Russia. Meanwhile, the Republicans are rushing through a half-baked giveaways to the donors. This is the country we live in right now. Rule by sociopaths. If this doesn't wake up the populace then we are doomed.

[El Guapo]

https://twitter.com/jameshohmann/status ... 2214530048

I wonder if Flynn has tape recordings or written documents. It's a hell of a deal.

[El Guapo]

Side note: earlier this week Manafort reached a bail deal with Mueller, securing his release from house arrest with four properties worth ~$11 million (and some other terms, including his wife turning over her passport).

Probably has no real bearing on whether Manafort will ultimately cooperate (of course, the terms for him probably got less generous today), but just thought I would note that.

[malchior]

Fox News has Dershowitz on billed as a "lifelong Democrat" saying that Mueller is way outside his lane because this was all just normal diplomatic contact. Hey Alan - then why did Flynn lie about it? Propaganda on parade!

[Paingod]

This is the country we live in right now. Rule by sociopaths. If this doesn't wake up the populace then we are doomed.

I'm absolutely certain each of our polarized factions is completely riveted by the actions of the opposite faction. They're glued to their phones so tightly that they'll walk into light posts. They'll howl in rage about the injustice, on both sides. They'll rant. They'll rave. They'll have eye fatigue from staring at their phones late into the night. They'll need prescriptions for anti-depressants.

Will they vote? Probably not. There's no app for that.

[El Guapo]

https://twitter.com/Popehat/status/936636724117102592

[Remus West]

And yet Fox News has a headline about Clinton. LOL. And the White House is considering this a win. MAGA

You laugh but I see the riots from Fox News viewers if everything we suspect is true and Trump goes down for it because they won't have clue one that it was even happening to their orange idol and won't accept it in the least. One way or another our nation is very likely not to survive with even the little pieces we have left holding us together. Millions on both sides consuming only the "news" the reinforces their own views while demonizing the other side while we approach challenge the magnitude of "did the sitting President commit treason during his campaign". There is nothing good to come of this for a very very long time. If ever. The civil war removed slavery - eventually - but it did not really remove its stain. I need to find something good that could come from this other than removal of the malignant force that is Trump because there are way too many other malignant forces still around that are just like him and will appeal to the same tribal notions. I admit that I am terrified for our nation either way.

[Octavious]

I laugh because I"m trying to not cry. Remember when we all complained about how crappy 2016 was? I seriously wake up angry almost every single day.

[malchior]

The "Hey guys - He only worked here a 'couple of weeks' defense" is pretty strong.

https://twitter.com/AshleyRParker/statu ... 7854430208

[funnygirl]

And yet Fox News has a headline about Clinton. LOL. And the White House is considering this a win. MAGA

You laugh but I see the riots from Fox News viewers if everything we suspect is true and Trump goes down for it because they won't have clue one that it was even happening to their orange idol and won't accept it in the least. One way or another our nation is very likely not to survive with even the little pieces we have left holding us together. Millions on both sides consuming only the "news" the reinforces their own views while demonizing the other side while we approach challenge the magnitude of "did the sitting President commit treason during his campaign". There is nothing good to come of this for a very very long time. If ever. The civil war removed slavery - eventually - but it did not really remove its stain. I need to find something good that could come from this other than removal of the malignant force that is Trump because there are way too many other malignant forces still around that are just like him and will appeal to the same tribal notions. I admit that I am terrified for our nation either way.

Yes, this.

[Zaxxon]

I can't wait for the Popehat Lawsplainer on this one...

[malchior]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status ... 3293271040

[pr0ner]

Comey throwing some shade at Trump:

https://twitter.com/Comey/status/936641449294286848

[Captain Caveman]

Wait, is that a pee tape reference?

[Enough]

Wait, is that a pee tape reference?

Thread winner!

[gbasden]

And yet Fox News has a headline about Clinton. LOL. And the White House is considering this a win. MAGA

You laugh but I see the riots from Fox News viewers if everything we suspect is true and Trump goes down for it because they won't have clue one that it was even happening to their orange idol and won't accept it in the least. One way or another our nation is very likely not to survive with even the little pieces we have left holding us together. Millions on both sides consuming only the "news" the reinforces their own views while demonizing the other side while we approach challenge the magnitude of "did the sitting President commit treason during his campaign". There is nothing good to come of this for a very very long time. If ever. The civil war removed slavery - eventually - but it did not really remove its stain. I need to find something good that could come from this other than removal of the malignant force that is Trump because there are way too many other malignant forces still around that are just like him and will appeal to the same tribal notions. I admit that I am terrified for our nation either way.

I honestly wonder if our country is going to splinter. As a people we are at the point where the tribes can't even agree on basic governing principles. I'm at the point where, like Octavious, I wake up angry every single day. I don't know if I have anything in common with Republican voters and that includes people in my extended family.

[Lassr]

And yet Fox News has a headline about Clinton. LOL. And the White House is considering this a win. MAGA

You laugh but I see the riots from Fox News viewers if everything we suspect is true and Trump goes down for it because they won't have clue one that it was even happening to their orange idol and won't accept it in the least. One way or another our nation is very likely not to survive with even the little pieces we have left holding us together. Millions on both sides consuming only the "news" the reinforces their own views while demonizing the other side while we approach challenge the magnitude of "did the sitting President commit treason during his campaign". There is nothing good to come of this for a very very long time. If ever. The civil war removed slavery - eventually - but it did not really remove its stain. I need to find something good that could come from this other than removal of the malignant force that is Trump because there are way too many other malignant forces still around that are just like him and will appeal to the same tribal notions. I admit that I am terrified for our nation either way.

I honestly wonder if our country is going to splinter. As a people we are at the point where the tribes can't even agree on basic governing principles. I'm at the point where, like Octavious, I wake up angry every single day. I don't know if I have anything in common with Republican voters and that includes people in my extended family.

Same here. I can forgive the ones that voted for Trump and admit they fucked up but the ones that think he is doing a good job...I do not want to even associate with you anymore.

[Octavious]

My father is DIEHARD Fox News fan and believes anything they write. I don't talk about anything around him that isn't sports related. And yes I honestly am starting to literally hate anyone that thinks he's a good thing. After watching Christie for the last 8 years I've had my god damn fill of assholes with bloating egos yelling at people. I can honestly say when Obama was in office I never once felt that the country was in danger. Now I wonder if we'll survive to the next day.

[YellowKing]

I take solace in the fact that the Trump crowd are NOT a majority. Trump won this election by the skin of his teeth thanks to an opponent nobody liked, Russian interference, celebrity appeal, and a mindset of "we need to shake things up." It was a perfect storm.

It seems *very* unlikely to me that the nation as a whole will come out of this thinking, "That was awesome, let's do it again!" His poll numbers have been in the toilet ever since he took office. His initiatives on tax reform and healthcare reform are deeply unpopular. And it's only going to get worse for him and his cronies.

30% can't rule the country forever. They finally got their time in the sun and they're completely fucking it up. No independent voter in their right mind is going to look back at the Trump presidency in 2020 and go, "yeah, those Republicans really had their shit together."

Maybe I'm being naive, because I didn't think the country would never in a million years elect a pussy-grabbing lying Russian puppet but here we are.

[LordMortis]

The thing is we've been around 250 years through the peaceful transition of power. Right now we have a one group who doesn't see how we last three more years at this pace and the other group making veiled threats if the president is threatened with removal. We have politically inspired violence and murder happening regularly.

I used to wake up angry now I wake up frightened. In the last couple of days I keep coming back to SHS on DJT's reposting of propanda video This legitimately terrifies me more than Putin puppetry. It haunts me.

"I'm not talking about the nature of the video. I think you're focusing on the wrong thing. The threat is real, and that's what the President is talking about."

[Grifman]

So what am I missing here? Yes, Flynn talked to the Russians and lied about it, but there's nothing here about collusion with Russia on the election. And I'm not aware that him talking to the Russians after the election but before Trump took office was illegal. Was it? I realize that the Trump admin probably would not want knowledge of him talking to Russians about making nice to them to be public, but I'm not seeing what everyone is getting all excited about here. Am I missing something?

More here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... act-russia

Celebration seems premature at this point.

[El Guapo]

So what am I missing here? Yes, Flynn talked to the Russians and lied about it, but there's nothing here about collusion with Russia on the election. And I'm not aware that him talking to the Russians after the election but before Trump took office was illegal. Was it? I realize that the Trump admin probably would not want knowledge of him talking to Russians about making nice to them to be public, but I'm not seeing what everyone is getting all excited about here. Am I missing something?

More here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... act-russia

Celebration seems premature at this point.

Based on what's public in the plea, it is premature, BUT:

(1) As the article says the conversations themselves might have been illegal (Logan Act violations), since it was a private citizen undermining the foreign policy of a sitting President;
(2) Per ABC News (and as noted in the Bloomberg article), Flynn is apparently prepared to testify that Trump told him to make contact with the Russians during the campaign;
(3) In light of everything else that's come to light thus far about the Trump campaign coordinating with Russia, that Trump / Kushner directed Flynn to call Russia to ask them to delay a response to the U.S. sanctions *which were in retaliation for Russia meddling in the presidential campaign*, and Russia did so...is not a great look; and
(4) That Trump and his people have continuously lied about all this (saying that they had no idea that Flynn spoke with Kislyak about sanctions, when they obviously did know), suggests that the explanations for all this are not super innocent.

[Holman]

I think in the end there will be plenty of charges in lots of areas for everyone, but the bare minimum for collusion is that the Trump campaign offered to help the Russians (sanctions, Crimea, etc) after it was known that the Russians had hacked Clinton or the Dems.

Circumstantially, the evidence pile is huge: the Russians did hack, they offered to help, and the Trump campaign planned to give Russia what they wanted. All that time, there was secret contact (lied about) after secret contact (lied about).

That much is all known. What Mueller needs is proofs and details to line it all up and show clear connections for prosecution.

Flynn's alleged crimes are enormous. They would be a lifetime score for any investigator. That Mueller appears to be overlooking them in order to have Flynn's cooperation says that Flynn has given Mueller even more.

Hence the celebration.

[Grifman]

Based on what's public in the plea, it is premature, BUT:

(1) As the article says the conversations themselves might have been illegal (Logan Act violations), since it was a private citizen undermining the foreign policy of a sitting President;
(2) Per ABC News (and as noted in the Bloomberg article), Flynn is apparently prepared to testify that Trump told him to make contact with the Russians during the campaign;
(3) In light of everything else that's come to light thus far about the Trump campaign coordinating with Russia, that Trump / Kushner directed Flynn to call Russia to ask them to delay a response to the U.S. sanctions *which were in retaliation for Russia meddling in the presidential campaign*, and Russia did so...is not a great look; and
(4) That Trump and his people have continuously lied about all this (saying that they had no idea that Flynn spoke with Kislyak about sanctions, when they obviously did know), suggests that the explanations for all this are not super innocent.

Yeah, but the Logan Act has never been successfully prosecuted and I doubt anyone would try to hang their hat on that. I certainly want to hang a potential indictment of a president on that. And again, there is absolutely no evidence of campaign collusion. None whatsoever. I believe that if there was, something would have leaked out somewhere along the way. Stuff like that just doesn't stay hidden in the current environment.

And I see ton of people above acting like this is the evidence/testimony that's going to hang Trump. I just don't see it.

[Isgrimnur]

Popehat, exactly six years ago

Here's how it works. The feds identify some fact that they can prove. It need not be inherently incriminating; it might be whether you were at a particular meeting, or whether you talked to someone about the existence of the investigation. They determine that they have irrefutable proof of this fact. Then, when they interview you, they ask you a question about the fact, hoping that you will lie. Often they employ professional questioning tactics to make it more likely you will lie — for instance, by phrasing the question or employing a tone of voice to make the fact sound sinister. You — having already been foolhardy enough to talk to them without a lawyer — obligingly lie about this fact. Then, even though there was never any question about the fact, even though your lie did not deter the federal government for a microsecond, they have you nailed for a false statement to a government agent in violation of 18 USC 1001. To be a crime under Section 1001, a statement must be material — but the federal courts have generally supported the government's position that the question is not whether a false statement actually did influence the government, but whether it was the sort of false statement that could have influenced the government.

Hence, the government's chickenshit false statement trap works — even though the government agents set it up from the start. Now, however weak or strong their evidence is of the issue they are investigating, they've got you on a Section 1001 charge — a federal felony. In effect, they are manufacturing felonies in the course of investigations.