The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

[Rip]

Nor do I, but I am enjoying all the Trump haters gleefully patting each other on the back thinking this spells the end of Trump.

At worst he tosses Kush under the bus, which to most of the hardcore Trump camp would be a good thing. He has been derailing the agenda since day one.

[El Guapo]

Based on what's public in the plea, it is premature, BUT:

(1) As the article says the conversations themselves might have been illegal (Logan Act violations), since it was a private citizen undermining the foreign policy of a sitting President;
(2) Per ABC News (and as noted in the Bloomberg article), Flynn is apparently prepared to testify that Trump told him to make contact with the Russians during the campaign;
(3) In light of everything else that's come to light thus far about the Trump campaign coordinating with Russia, that Trump / Kushner directed Flynn to call Russia to ask them to delay a response to the U.S. sanctions *which were in retaliation for Russia meddling in the presidential campaign*, and Russia did so...is not a great look; and
(4) That Trump and his people have continuously lied about all this (saying that they had no idea that Flynn spoke with Kislyak about sanctions, when they obviously did know), suggests that the explanations for all this are not super innocent.

Yeah, but the Logan Act has never been successfully prosecuted and I doubt anyone would try to hang their hat on that. I certainly want to hang a potential indictment of a president on that. And again, there is absolutely no evidence of campaign collusion. None whatsoever. I believe that if there was, something would have leaked out somewhere along the way. Stuff like that just doesn't stay hidden in the current environment.

And I see ton of people above acting like this is the evidence/testimony that's going to hang Trump. I just don't see it.

Are you joking? There is a TON of evidence of campaign collusion. It hasn't been *proven* conclusively yet, sure, but it's silly to say that there's no evidence.

[Octavious]

Kushner is derailing the agenda? For serious? It's not the guy who can't go five minutes without tweeting like a hormone raging teenager? Nooooo... And yes everyone keep on believing the nothing burger theory until the piss tape comes out.

[Octavious]

Based on what's public in the plea, it is premature, BUT:

(1) As the article says the conversations themselves might have been illegal (Logan Act violations), since it was a private citizen undermining the foreign policy of a sitting President;
(2) Per ABC News (and as noted in the Bloomberg article), Flynn is apparently prepared to testify that Trump told him to make contact with the Russians during the campaign;
(3) In light of everything else that's come to light thus far about the Trump campaign coordinating with Russia, that Trump / Kushner directed Flynn to call Russia to ask them to delay a response to the U.S. sanctions *which were in retaliation for Russia meddling in the presidential campaign*, and Russia did so...is not a great look; and
(4) That Trump and his people have continuously lied about all this (saying that they had no idea that Flynn spoke with Kislyak about sanctions, when they obviously did know), suggests that the explanations for all this are not super innocent.

Yeah, but the Logan Act has never been successfully prosecuted and I doubt anyone would try to hang their hat on that. I certainly want to hang a potential indictment of a president on that. And again, there is absolutely no evidence of campaign collusion. None whatsoever. I believe that if there was, something would have leaked out somewhere along the way. Stuff like that just doesn't stay hidden in the current environment.

And I see ton of people above acting like this is the evidence/testimony that's going to hang Trump. I just don't see it.

Are you joking? There is a TON of evidence of campaign collusion. It hasn't been *proven* conclusively yet, sure, but it's silly to say that there's no evidence.

Trump said there isn't. Lets just let it drop and move on to the real issue. HILLARY!!!!

[malchior]

And yet Fox News has a headline about Clinton. LOL. And the White House is considering this a win. MAGA

You laugh but I see the riots from Fox News viewers if everything we suspect is true and Trump goes down for it because they won't have clue one that it was even happening to their orange idol and won't accept it in the least. One way or another our nation is very likely not to survive with even the little pieces we have left holding us together. Millions on both sides consuming only the "news" the reinforces their own views while demonizing the other side while we approach challenge the magnitude of "did the sitting President commit treason during his campaign". There is nothing good to come of this for a very very long time. If ever. The civil war removed slavery - eventually - but it did not really remove its stain. I need to find something good that could come from this other than removal of the malignant force that is Trump because there are way too many other malignant forces still around that are just like him and will appeal to the same tribal notions. I admit that I am terrified for our nation either way.

I honestly wonder if our country is going to splinter. As a people we are at the point where the tribes can't even agree on basic governing principles. I'm at the point where, like Octavious, I wake up angry every single day. I don't know if I have anything in common with Republican voters and that includes people in my extended family.

The real problem is deeper IMO. We don't agree on *facts*. There are groups so biased that you can't get them to agree on true things. That is truly dangerous because there is no dialogue possible then. There is room to disagree on governing philosophy. We did it for a long time with only one--albeit huge--crackup. Until people decide that there is an objective truth we are going to have ever worsening problems.

[El Guapo]

Timeline (as of Nov. 6th).

[Isgrimnur]

Until people decide that there is an objective truth we are going to have ever worsening problems.

This has never been a thing.

[YellowKing]

Nor do I, but I am enjoying all the Trump haters gleefully patting each other on the back thinking this spells the end of Trump.

Whether it's the actual end as in impeachment/removal or not, it's ample proof of his lying douchebaggery, and that the cries of "nothingburger" from his supporters is unfounded. That's satisfaction enough for me.

P.S. I don't remember seeing it reported here, or maybe overlooked it, but The Daily podcast (fake news NY Times) was talking today about three occasions where Trump has recently asked or commented directly to those involved in the investigation about getting it wrapped up quickly. Feeling the heat, Cheeto?

[GreenGoo]

Nor do I, but I am enjoying all the Trump haters gleefully patting each other on the back thinking this spells the end of Trump.

At worst he tosses Kush under the bus, which to most of the hardcore Trump camp would be a good thing. He has been derailing the agenda since day one.

As a long time Drumpf hater, I would be absolutely gleeful at that.

First, he's not a sitting president, so he's less likely to walk.

Second, a long prison term AND having Drumpf betray him would create significant motivation to flip. And Kushner knows where a helluva lot more skeletons are than Flynn does.

In a case, Flynn making a deal is a huge step in the Drumpf investigation. You can sneer all you want. Your opinion means very little and you'll need to keep your rationalisation skills honed if you're going to continue to attempt to downplay each step in the investigation.

As for Grif, these developments have me hopeful. I refuse to become optimistic until we're much farther down the rabbit hole.

Drumpf sacrificing Kushner would be a great step in the right direction. Hopefully Rip got this one right for once.

[El Guapo]

https://twitter.com/Olivianuzzi/status/ ... 0312768512

Note that I can't imagine Flynn taking this deal if Mueller didn't have evidence of crimes that are violations of state / local law, given Trump's willingness to pardon.

[LordMortis]

Nor do I, but I am enjoying all the Trump haters gleefully patting each other on the back thinking this spells the end of Trump.

At worst he tosses Kush under the bus, which to most of the hardcore Trump camp would be a good thing. He has been derailing the agenda since day one.

As a top of the heap Trump hater, I'm not sure anything will spell the end of Trump.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tJPj_0 ... e=youtu.be

[Trent Steel]

Timeline (as of Nov. 6th).

Clearly an amazing truckload of nothing-burgers.

[GreenGoo]

I'm good with rioting. Have at it. Hopefully they're smart enough to have accommodations and food available ahead of time.

That there hasn't been rioting already from the other side has been surprising.

[Trent Steel]

Nor do I, but I am enjoying all the Trump haters gleefully patting each other on the back thinking this spells the end of Trump.

At worst he tosses Kush under the bus, which to most of the hardcore Trump camp would be a good thing. He has been derailing the agenda since day one.

As a top of the heap Trump hater, I'm not sure anything will spell the end of Trump.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tJPj_0 ... e=youtu.be

Well, I agree with him on his last point.

[Kraken]

Based on what's public in the plea, it is premature, BUT:

(1) As the article says the conversations themselves might have been illegal (Logan Act violations), since it was a private citizen undermining the foreign policy of a sitting President;
(2) Per ABC News (and as noted in the Bloomberg article), Flynn is apparently prepared to testify that Trump told him to make contact with the Russians during the campaign;
(3) In light of everything else that's come to light thus far about the Trump campaign coordinating with Russia, that Trump / Kushner directed Flynn to call Russia to ask them to delay a response to the U.S. sanctions *which were in retaliation for Russia meddling in the presidential campaign*, and Russia did so...is not a great look; and
(4) That Trump and his people have continuously lied about all this (saying that they had no idea that Flynn spoke with Kislyak about sanctions, when they obviously did know), suggests that the explanations for all this are not super innocent.

Yeah, but the Logan Act has never been successfully prosecuted and I doubt anyone would try to hang their hat on that. I certainly want to hang a potential indictment of a president on that. And again, there is absolutely no evidence of campaign collusion. None whatsoever. I believe that if there was, something would have leaked out somewhere along the way. Stuff like that just doesn't stay hidden in the current environment.

And I see ton of people above acting like this is the evidence/testimony that's going to hang Trump. I just don't see it.

Are you joking? There is a TON of evidence of campaign collusion. It hasn't been *proven* conclusively yet, sure, but it's silly to say that there's no evidence.

The main question now is what Trump knew and when he knew it. Today's development indicates that Mueller is getting closer to answering that. There are probably still some new dots to connect, but Mueller has a sharp pencil and plenty of patience.

We are also a step closer to wondering what, if anything, will happen if/when Trump's culpability is proven. "Proof" is a slippery thing these days. Trump's 30% will never believe any evidence, and those of us who are inclined to believe it have already seen enough. Somewhere between those extremes are the 435 souls whose opinions matter. They've mostly stopped caring what the public thinks, so they are Mueller's sole audience.

[Defiant]

(4) That Trump and his people have continuously lied about all this [..], suggests that it is a day of the week ending in y.

Fixed that for you.

[Rip]

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/08 ... gton-elite

They have always been the piece of the puzzle that didn't fit and isn't well liked internally.

With Jared out of the way Ivanka could take on her gifted role of Princess and they can all just act like her husband was killed in a war or something.

[malchior]

Buzzfeed should win a prize for that headline!

Edit: Here is the referenced piece if interested

https://twitter.com/juliareinstein/stat ... 3332305921

[Octavious]

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/08 ... gton-elite

They have always been the piece of the puzzle that didn't fit and isn't well liked internally.

With Jared out of the way Ivanka could take on her gifted role of Princess and they can all just act like her husband was killed in a war or something.

I'm starting to wonder if you know how these investigations work.

[ImLawBoy]

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/08 ... gton-elite

They have always been the piece of the puzzle that didn't fit and isn't well liked internally.

With Jared out of the way Ivanka could take on her gifted role of Princess and they can all just act like her husband was killed in a war or something.

You're certainly right that there's something about Jared that doesn't fit in with the agenda of Trump's alt-right circles . . . .

[Skinypupy]

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/08 ... gton-elite

They have always been the piece of the puzzle that didn't fit and isn't well liked internally.

With Jared out of the way Ivanka could take on her gifted role of Princess and they can all just act like her husband was killed in a war or something.

You're certainly right that there's something about Jared that doesn't fit in with the agenda of Trump's alt-right circles . . . .

Yeah, I was gonna ask if Rip thought Kush was actively derailing just Trump's "Fuck the Brown People" agenda, or if he was getting in the way of the broader "Fuck the Poor" agenda as well.

[Holman]

Trump can downgrade Kushner's political role, but he can't throw him under the bus. Jared is family.

(And by "family," I mean "knows where the bodies are buried.")

[Rip]

In recent conversations, I’ve heard people close to President Trump wonder aloud whether it was Kushner’s team that leaked the Don junior e-mails to the Times in the first place. The implication would be that Kushner was willing to sacrifice his brother-in-law in order to distance himself from the uncomfortable reality of the meeting. There is no evidence for this. But it illustrates the tension among Donald Trump’s advisers. The pressure of the Russia investigation has created rifts among members of the Trump family and their lawyers.

Inside the Trump White House, where advisers are regularly subjected to ritualistic debasement or worse at the president’s hands, Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump are the two people who up till now have managed to float above the fray. They have become a feared duo inside the West Wing, as much for an apparent vindictive streak as for their favored status with the man Washington operatives now call “the principal.” No one except for the president is surrounded by a larger battery of legal and public-relations representation. They appear to be driven in equal parts by family loyalty and brand preservation. Ivanka, like her father, relies on her name and image to propel her fortune. Kushner, while less comfortable in the spotlight, has a stable of advisers and staff who report to him as the czar of a shadow government known as the White House Office of American Innovation.

For Kushner and Ivanka, the solution has been to fight back: against New York friends who disapprove of them, against West Wing foes, and even against the president himself. Increasingly you hear chatter in Washington that Jared and Ivanka won’t last, not because they are at risk of being pushed out, but because they will save themselves from a damaged White House. One well-connected strategist in New York told me that the two were eyeing a move at the end of the school year in 2018. A person close to the couple said they weren’t planning that far ahead. “When they decide it’s more important to protect their own and their children’s reputations than it is to defend their indefensible father’s, that’s a sign the end is near,” one influential Republican donor told me.

Kushner and Ivanka will leave the White House at some point. When they do, it will be a welcome development for those who view the pair not merely as Trump’s protectors, as they see themselves to be, but rather as one of his greatest weaknesses. As a former West Wing staffer from a previous administration told me, speaking about Jared and Ivanka, “There’s nothing more obstructive and distracting and unhelpful than to have a bunch of stupid apolitical family members calling all the shots.” The arrival of Kelly as White House chief of staff has introduced an official layer between the couple and the president. People close to Kushner and Ivanka say they welcome his promise of discipline. He has also been useful: Kelly assisted in the ouster of chief strategist Stephen Bannon, leader of the nativist faction in the White House and a longtime Kushner foe. But Kelly’s discipline also challenges the family-business nature of the Trump administration, which favors Kushner and Ivanka above all others.

It's all right there.

[Grifman]

Are you joking? There is a TON of evidence of campaign collusion. It hasn't been *proven* conclusively yet, sure, but it's silly to say that there's no evidence.

Ok, let me restate. There is no hard evidence of collusion. There is a lot of circumstantial evidence but so far there is no smoking gun. There's no emails showing collusion and so far no testimony from any principals that we are aware of that states so. Your first link says:

but the bottom line is: We do not yet have hard evidence of actual collusion between the Trump operation and Russia.

That's what is is going to take to convince people. It's going to take something like that to get an impeachment effort that Republicans might support (and even then I might wonder?). Nothing I've seen so far tells me that the Trump team was organized enough to even carry off a campaign of collusion with Russia. In fact, so far they look like the Keystone Cops of election efforts. His campaign was run any better than his presidency is being run.

[tjg_marantz]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/936719935056875520

[Holman]

Are you joking? There is a TON of evidence of campaign collusion. It hasn't been *proven* conclusively yet, sure, but it's silly to say that there's no evidence.

Ok, let me restate. There is no hard evidence of collusion. There is a lot of circumstantial evidence but so far there is no smoking gun. There's no emails showing collusion and so far no testimony from any principals that we are aware of that states so. Your first link says:

but the bottom line is: We do not yet have hard evidence of actual collusion between the Trump operation and Russia.

That's what is is going to take to convince people. It's going to take something like that to get an impeachment effort that Republicans might support (and even then I might wonder?). Nothing I've seen so far tells me that the Trump team was organized enough to even carry off a campaign of collusion with Russia. In fact, so far they look like the Keystone Cops of election efforts. His campaign was run any better than his presidency is being run.

Why would *we* have hard evidence of collusion? Mueller appears to run a leak-proof ship, and he has nothing to gain by tipping his hand.

From the outside, this looks like an investigation that knows what it's doing and keeps drawing in more information. We can read the tea leaves when he hires new prosecutors ("Ooh, look, now he's got the top person on Russian money-laundering!"), but that's all we're going to get until there are further results.

Media interest in this investigation is high because of its importance to the health of the Republic, but this is the very opposite of a case being tried in the media.

As for the Keystone Cops aspect, how is that an argument *against* collusion? The Russians were the competent ones, and Trump is the fool they needed. Remember, Moscow is not in this to Make American Great Again.

[malchior]

Until people decide that there is an objective truth we are going to have ever worsening problems.

This has never been a thing.

I don't mean universal truth. I meant things things like basic facts are accepted as true. We can disagree on the outcome of the fact but the fact is a fact. Right now the facts aren't even agreed on. I'm also not talking about the predictions from the facts. Examples: Climate data is all cooked. The media is lying about the things Trump says that can be verified by just played the video of Trump saying it, etc. Basic facts are in dispute. If you can't agree on those things how the hell can you agree to complicated things?

[malchior]

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/08 ... gton-elite

They have always been the piece of the puzzle that didn't fit and isn't well liked internally.

With Jared out of the way Ivanka could take on her gifted role of Princess and they can all just act like her husband was killed in a war or something.

You're certainly right that there's something about Jared that doesn't fit in with the agenda of Trump's alt-right circles . . . .

[Rip]

Funny, but if that were true just imagine how upset they will be when Trump moves the embassy in Israel in a few weeks....

There is a big hole in the Trump and his Nazis talking point, which is the unequivocal support of Israel.

Kind of funny seeing people on the left call Trump a Nazi and then embrace obvious anti-semites.

[malchior]

Fine I think we can all agree he is just racist against people who *look* non-white.

[Rip]

Fine I think we can all agree he is just racist against people who *look* non-white.

Well we can agree he wants to be aggressive against non-citizens who are not in the USA via legal means and that he wants greatly increase the vetting of those admitted legally. Deciding to call doing that racist is where most of us part.

[Holman]

Israel is a special case: on the one hand they are Jews, on the other their hard-liners are rabidly Islamophobic. They're also the special pet of Christianist Evangelicals, who regard them theologically with simultaneous awe and contempt.

Loving Israel is complicated on the Right, but plenty of white supremacists manage this cognitive dissonance just fine by seeing Israel as a model for the kind of racial state they want to establish here.

So, yeah. You can support Israel and still be a racist shitlord.

[Enough]

Fine I think we can all agree he is just racist against people who *look* non-white.

Well we can agree he wants to be aggressive against non-citizens who are not in the USA via legal means and that he wants greatly increase the vetting of those admitted legally. Deciding to call doing that racist is where most of us part.

Yeah, retweeting racists is "elevating the conversation" lol.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[Skinypupy]

A very long, detailed, and fascinating Twitter thread from Seth Abramson about the implications here. Definitely worth the time to read through. Starts here.

[Skinypupy]

Fine I think we can all agree he is just racist against people who *look* non-white.

Well we can agree he wants to be aggressive against non-citizens who are not in the USA via legal means and that he wants greatly increase the vetting of those admitted legally. Deciding to call doing that racist is where most of us part.

Yeah, retweeting racists is "elevating the conversation" lol.

He's literally re-distributing al-Qaida propaganda.

[hepcat]

Funny, but if that were true just imagine how upset they will be when Trump moves the embassy in Israel in a few weeks....

There is a big hole in the Trump and his Nazis talking point, which is the unequivocal support of Israel.

Kind of funny seeing people on the left call Trump a Nazi and then embrace obvious anti-semites.

It’s more amusing to watch the acrobatics needed to justify or excuse the numerous examples of racism by the Mangerine simply because you hate the left.

At some point you’re going to admit you screwed up. And we’ll forgive you.

[YellowKing]

Even if I gave Trump every benefit of the doubt that he was not, in fact, racist, the mere fact that he is so tone deaf he doesn't even comprehend when something might *look* racist shows that he's unfit for the office.

I'm guessing any one of us, in our day to day jobs, would be sitting in HR having a long talk if we'd done even a fraction of the stuff Trump's said/done in public.

[El Guapo]

Are you joking? There is a TON of evidence of campaign collusion. It hasn't been *proven* conclusively yet, sure, but it's silly to say that there's no evidence.

Ok, let me restate. There is no hard evidence of collusion. There is a lot of circumstantial evidence but so far there is no smoking gun. There's no emails showing collusion and so far no testimony from any principals that we are aware of that states so. Your first link says:

but the bottom line is: We do not yet have hard evidence of actual collusion between the Trump operation and Russia.

That's what is is going to take to convince people. It's going to take something like that to get an impeachment effort that Republicans might support (and even then I might wonder?). Nothing I've seen so far tells me that the Trump team was organized enough to even carry off a campaign of collusion with Russia. In fact, so far they look like the Keystone Cops of election efforts. His campaign was run any better than his presidency is being run.

I dunno, even "circumstantial evidence" is underselling what we know somewhat. I mean, we have e-mails wherein a Kremlin connected lawyer literally e-mails Donald Trump Jr. promising dirt on Clinton as part of a "Russian government effort" to help Trump, and Trump Jr. writes back "If it's way you say I love it", and then Trump's campaign manager (Manafort) and Kushner attend the meeting (which was in Trump Tower on I believe a day that Trump was also there) along with Trump Jr. You have Papadapolous, who Trump described in a campaign interview as one of his top five foreign policy advisers, having meetings with Russian government agents that were condoned by senior campaign people. You have Wikileaks, which had a key role in the hack and which has been pretty overtly pro-Russian, having direct DM contact with Trump Jr. Now, with likely more to come, you have the incoming National Security Adviser, under the direction of the Trump transition team, getting Russia to back off on sanctions designed to punish election interference at the request of Trump transition people.

Now, we don't have hard proof that *Trump himself* was involved in any of this. But it seems unlikely in the extreme that he was unaware of much or most of this. And with Flynn having gotten what from all appearances looks like an extrarodinarily lenient deal conditioned on cooperation, it seems highly likely that there is much, much more to come.

[Holman]

And of course the foundation for this, all of it, is the fact that Trump had been involved in money-laundering for Russian oligarchs for a decade or even more.

That's how Moscow knew this scheme for destabilizing our institutions would work: they had a willing, clueless, and compromised asset from the beginning, and miraculously he was just the kind of reckless relentless celebrity narcissist against which American culture has no defense.

[malchior]

And honestly we were self-destructing anyway. Our institutions---especially Congress--are corrupt and completely bought if tonight is any guide.