Political Randomness

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:42 pm

Moliere wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:23 pm https://twitter.com/JeffFlake/status/938160754490052609

Jeff Flake writing a $100 check to Doug Jones saying "Country over Party".

Yeah, that was like 2 - 3 pages ago in this thread.

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:54 pm

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:52 pm

So my take away message from this is that if you have an (R) next to you name, you can do anything at all - as long as you vocally oppose abortion. I wonder if members of the GOP believed it for decades, but no one wanted to actually test it. Now that they know it works for Roy Moore, they can admit to stealing, forgery, murder (not a fetus), dating 14 year old girls (not boys, that's gay) - it's all good.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:57 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:03 pm Yeah, this isn't the same as discussing surrogacy:

Rep. Trent Franks of Arizona, who asked staffers if they would bear his child as a surrogate, says he will resign

While Franks’s statement left the circumstances of the “discussion” murky, three Republicans familiar with the allegations said that he had asked the staffers, who worked for him at the time but have since left his office, if they would serve as surrogate mothers for his child. A spokesman for Franks did not respond to a request for comment on that claim.

The abrupt decision follows new reports that Frank allegedly repeatedly pressed a former aide to carry his child, offering her $5 million to act as a surrogate.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12 ... child.html

$5M!

Shit dude, I'll carry your brat for that.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:58 pm

I wouldn't pay you $5 to carry a bag of sand.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:07 pm

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:11 pm

Rip wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:18 pm
The woman who showed her high school yearbook bearing Roy Moore’s signature as evidence that he knew her on Friday admitted that she wrote notes on the page herself while still insisting that his John Hancock was legit.
https://nypost.com/2017/12/08/roy-moore ... ook-entry/

Have you actually looked at the image?

The date and place note are clearly in another handwriting. I have assumed all along that the date and place were her note. I think anyone looking at the image would do the same.

Are people really saying the whole thing is a forgery because those two notes are not Moore's? Do they know how yearbooks work?

geezer · Post by **geezer** » Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:14 pm

Skinypupy wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:18 pm Nothing to see here. Just GOP Rep Steve King (IA) going full-on white nationalist on Twitter this morning.

Diversity is not our strength. Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, “Mixing cultures will not lead to a higher quality of life but a lower one.”
At least they used to try and hide it.

What. The. Fuck.

Fitzy · Post by **Fitzy** » Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:15 pm

If I was an Alabama voter, the key takeaway of the note would be that he wrote "Merry Christmas" and not "Happy Holidays".

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:31 pm

Non-Pedophile Reasons Why You Can Hate Roy Moore

He taught a class discouraging women from running for office.
He's referred to people as "reds and yellows".
He thinks the accusations of pedophilia are pushed by homosexuals and socialists.
Accepted money from a Neo-nazi group.
Said gay marriage was worse than slavery.
Wouldn't rule out death penalty for gays.
Wants to rescind free trade agreements.
He's anti-immigrant.
Believes Barack Obama wasn't born in America.
Believes 9/11 is God's punishment for legalizing sodomy and abortion.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:52 pm

The new Superfund Sites Targeted for Immediate, Intense Action list is out.

I'm pretty sure that the reason New Jersey isn't on the top of the list is that it's sorted by region, and NJ is Region 2. But racking up ~15% of the 21 sites on the list is still impressive.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:56 pm

Moliere wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:31 pm Non-Pedophile Reasons Why You Can Hate Roy Moore

He taught a class discouraging women from running for office.
He's referred to people as "reds and yellows".
He thinks the accusations of pedophilia are pushed by homosexuals and socialists.
Accepted money from a Neo-nazi group.
Said gay marriage was worse than slavery.
Wouldn't rule out death penalty for gays.
Wants to rescind free trade agreements.
He's anti-immigrant.
Believes Barack Obama wasn't born in America.
Believes 9/11 is God's punishment for legalizing sodomy and abortion.

Moore was removed from the Alabama Supreme Court *twice* for violating the Constitution: first when he refused an order to remove his 10 Commandments megalith and then when he urged Alabama judges to ignore the legalization of gay marriage

Freyland · Post by **Freyland** » Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:08 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:58 pm I wouldn't pay you $5 to carry a bag of sand.

Well, if you do make the offer, remember that the immediate GOP preference is playground sand.

Combustible Lemur · Post by **Combustible Lemur** » Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:26 pm

Smoove_B wrote:So my take away message from this is that if you have an (R) next to you name, you can do anything at all - as long as you vocally oppose abortion. I wonder if members of the GOP believed it for decades, but no one wanted to actually test it. Now that they know it works for Roy Moore, they can admit to stealing, forgery, murder (not a fetus), dating 14 year old girls (not boys, that's gay) - it's all good.

Always. The last 60 years has been about removing the veneer of that polished great society. Between home tv, internet, and 24 hr news a giant microscope and equal megaphone has been turned on society. I don't know that we've changed, we just see each other's nasty bits. It makes it more possible to call out shenanigans but it also allows deviants to find power in numbers.

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Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:18 pm

What's kind of interesting is that politicians' dirty little secrets (treason excluded) are probably no worse than they have always been, but now exposure carries greater risks. Media coverage and saturation means that private sins are harder to hide.

Presidents with secret mistresses probably outnumber those without, especially when you include the ones (e.g. Bush Sr., Eisenhower) known to have had them before their terms in office.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:20 pm

Don't forget Judges.

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way ... harassment

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:41 pm

or, Deuteronomy...

If a man is found sleeping with another man's wife, both the man who slept with her and the woman must die. You must purge the evil from Israel.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:05 am

Good news: they don't live in Israel.

PLW · Post by **PLW** » Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:36 am

The wife and I went out to a musical last night (School of Rock). In a scene, the teacher is running through all the students and telling their parents about how awesome they each are. It was a sweet scene, but definitely not the sort of thing were you clap. He gets to the "bossy" one, and says "[Becky] is going to be President." Suddenly, the theater erupted in applause. Like, 500 people in Greenville, SC randomly started cheering at the thought of replacing the president with a random 10 year-old-girl. It was surreal.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Sat Dec 09, 2017 4:01 pm

Ha! I really hope that’s why they were clapping. Seems odd considering you were in BobJonesville.

geezer · Post by **geezer** » Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:54 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Dec 09, 2017 4:01 pm Ha! I really hope that’s why they were clapping. Seems odd considering you were in BobJonesville.

Even in BobJonesville, musical theatre probably doesn’t attract many deplorables

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:56 pm

The link between the two events is *facepalm*.

American skiing star Lindsey Vonn has withdrawn from her Sunday events at the World Cup in Switzerland after suffering a back injury during a super-G race on Saturday.

The injury occurred two days after she criticized President Donald Trump in an interview about the upcoming Winter Olympics in South Korea.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:12 pm

They're just letting all the Fox news viewers that were praying to Jesus for something bad to happen to Lindsey Vonn, that it really worked.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:42 pm

link

Moore graduated West Point and eventually went to Vietnam as an MP Captain. He was so strict and rigid that his own men (also MP's) talked of wanting to frag him.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:14 pm

Holman wrote:
link

Moore graduated West Point and eventually went to Vietnam as an MP Captain. He was so strict and rigid that his own men (also MP's) talked of wanting to frag him.

So basically he's Douglas C. Niedermayer

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:32 pm

I bet Kristin Beck could kick Moore's ass so bad.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:09 am

https://twitter.com/foxnewspoll/status/ ... 3802477569

Ummm, sure. Not sure how Fox News became the most consistently pro-Jones polling outfit in this race, but here we are. Pretty sure Fox News runs a reputable poll though, at least from what I recall. I guess it's *possible* that there could be a lot of pro-Jones late movement what with all of Moore's baggage...but seems unlikely.

We'll see tomorrow, I guess.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:27 am

Does Trump start calling Fox News "FAKE NEWS" after that poll?

Hmm.

Nah.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:30 am

There are a couple more Alabama polls coming today, for what it's worth. Almost certainly not the case that Jones is really ahead by 10. But could be noise indicating late pro-Jones movement.

On the downside, if Jones really does win by 10 in Alabama, then it's probably a herald of the end times.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:50 am

Why is my first reaction to that to assume FOX is only trying to make certain that Republicans turn out to vote due to worry their pedophile er guy will lose?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:56 am

Remus West wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:50 am Why is my first reaction to that to assume FOX is only trying to make certain that Republicans turn out to vote due to worry their pedophile er guy will lose?

FWIW Fox News Polls is a separate entity from Fox News generally, and has a pretty solid reputation. It's possible that that's the case, but it's not likely.

Most likely explanation is that it's an outlier.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:14 pm

El Guapo wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:56 am
Remus West wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:50 am Why is my first reaction to that to assume FOX is only trying to make certain that Republicans turn out to vote due to worry their pedophile er guy will lose?
FWIW Fox News Polls is a separate entity from Fox News generally, and has a pretty solid reputation. It's possible that that's the case, but it's not likely.

Most likely explanation is that it's an outlier.

Same parent company?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:19 pm

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/sta ... 7925230592

That's 538's main polling guy. I don't know the org structure, but as I understand it it's nonpartisan and independent from the rest of the Fox News structure in practice, and has a good track record. It's *possible* that there's some skullduggery and tomfoolery going on now, but it's got a history and a track record, so there's really nothing to indicate anything untoward right now.

It is a "live interview" poll, and my understanding is that those have generally produced better results for Jones in the race overall. Which could reflect either people not being willing to tell live people that they're voting for Moore, or it could be that other polling types are missing people that live interviews are capturing.

Or just noise.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:31 pm

Remus West wrote:Why is my first reaction to that to assume FOX is only trying to make certain that Republicans turn out to vote due to worry their pedophile er guy will lose?

Because that’s almost certainly what FOX is trying to do.

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Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:16 pm

There was another poll that just got released that had Moore with a +9 lead. It did have a larger Margin of error, but I think the main cause of different results is the likely voter model of the various polling firms. It's hard enough to figure out what the turnout will be like in a special election. But in an election like *this*?

Still, Alabama being deep red, I would still think the most likely result is a Moore win.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:30 pm

A subtle but potentially noteworthy finding is Alabama voters who were interviewed on cellphones are +30 for Jones, while the race is roughly even among all others. The fact that traditional, high-quality probability samples, like the Fox News Poll, include both landline and cellphone numbers may be why these polls show Jones doing relatively well compared to automated or blended polls.

link

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:57 pm

El Guapo wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:19 pmpeople not being willing to tell live people that they're voting for Moore

Ummm, yeah. We don't have to go very far back in time to see a pretty good example of this behavior playing out.

Too cowardly to admit that they are voting for a piece of shit. Totally get it. Totally disgusted by it (both the vote and the cowardice), but totally get it.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:04 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:57 pm
El Guapo wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:19 pmpeople not being willing to tell live people that they're voting for Moore
Ummm, yeah. We don't have to go very far back in time to see a pretty good example of this behavior playing out.

Too cowardly to admit that they are voting for a piece of shit. Totally get it. Totally disgusted by it (both the vote and the cowardice), but totally get it.

Assuming that you're referring to the 2016 presidential election, there's no real evidence of that. The outcome was consistent with the polling average, which was around Clinton + 2-4%. The final outcome was Clinton +2.5%ish. It's just that Trump squeaked by via the electoral college. But there's no evidence of a "shy Trump voter" that I'm aware of.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:20 pm

New Poll. Who's ahead? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:36 pm

USNews

Joyce Simmons, the GOP national committeewoman from Nebraska, emailed the 168-member governing body Monday to inform them that she had tendered her resignation. She writes: "I strongly disagree with the recent RNC financial support directed to the Alabama Republican Party for use in the Roy Moore race."

Simmons adds that she wishes she could have continued her service "to the national Republican Party that I used to know well.'