Political Randomness

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:43 pm

One thing that I'm interested in is that Richard Shelby, the other Alabama Senator, has been consistently and vocally opposed to Moore. He's said that he is (has already?) casting a write-in vote for a GOP candidate other than Moore, and said in a TV appearance yesterday that Alabama can "do better" than Moore. Shelby appears to be pretty popular in Alabama, so I wonder if he could materially swing things.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:44 pm

Newsweek

The America First Project published a video Sunday that showed Millie March—who rose to fame at the age of 11 during the 2016 election due to her support for Donald Trump—interviewing Moore as part of his campaign for election in Alabama.

In the interview, Moore tells March he believes illegal immigration to the U.S. could be stopped “in a relatively short time” using America’s military before President Trump builds a wall on the border.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:54 pm

I just had a fun client meeting at a major financial institution today. I'm working with a group developing a long-term cyber strategy for them. In an interview today the chief audit executive in charge of internal audit just told our group that they believe their biggest risk is now political risk. What does that mean? He said in eloquent ways that tax rates influence their strategy quite a bit. More so, they don't know that tax policy, or the compliance/regulatory environment won't whipsaw in a different direction in 4 to 8 years if a Dem ends up back in the White House. They also are worried by their potential exposure to Brexit or EU wackiness. It is crazy times.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:17 pm

malchior wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:54 pm I just had a fun client meeting at a major financial institution today. I'm working with a group developing a long-term cyber strategy for them. In an interview today the chief audit executive in charge of internal audit just told our group that they believe their biggest risk is now political risk. What does that mean? He said in eloquent ways that tax rates influence their strategy quite a bit. More so, they don't know that tax policy, or the compliance/regulatory environment won't whipsaw in a different direction in 4 to 8 years if a Dem ends up back in the White House. They also are worried by their potential exposure to Brexit or EU wackiness. It is crazy times.

It makes sense. The current tax bills are written, both as a procedural and a political matter, such that they are disproportionately likely to be repealed. At least the upper income parts (which is the bulk of it).

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:56 pm

I'll lay down my marker: Roy Moore will win this. Tomorrow the last vestiges of the party of Lincoln will be swept away.

I do think a Doug Jones win is *possible*, though, and that's pretty astonishing.

If he pulls it off, it will be because Jones (despite being a lukewarm candidate of the sort never expected to have any chance) has managed a pretty good endgame GOTV push. A win will mean he pulled in pretty much every Republican who still has a conscience.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:48 pm

I predict Moore wins but that as has become their loss insurance it will be claimed by the left that losing is winning.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:01 pm

Nate Silver on the Alabama polls.

A lot of discussion on the live vs. automated polls (and also online polls). One interesting note is that automated polls are by law prohibited from calling cell phones, and cell phone voters (per the polls) support Jones by an overwhelming margin - Jones +30. So that would be a big part of explaining the difference of Jones +10 in Fox (live polling) vs. Moore +9 (automated polling). Though as Silver says there are cases to be made for both methods, and the ultimate question is how the various polls ultimately translate into who shows up at the ballot box on election day.

FWIW Silver gives Jones a roughly 30% chance of winning.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:06 pm

Rip wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:48 pm I predict Moore wins but that as has become their loss insurance it will be claimed by the left that losing is winning.

I also believe that Moore will win by a few points (4 - 6) and then then Trump will claim it as a great victory even though any other GOP candidate would win the state by 25.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:44 pm

Moore by 7 or 8 points, confirming Holman’s point, that the Party of Lincoln is gone.

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Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:50 pm

I count republican wins these days more less a win for them as a lose for the American citizen.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:00 pm

I think Alabama will validate my low opinion of it by electing the pedophile on the strength of the pussy-grabber's endorsement.

I'll be tickled if they surprise me.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:23 pm

Rip wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:48 pm I predict Moore wins but that as has become their loss insurance it will be claimed by the left that losing is winning.

In the event of a Jones win, I predict that Trump will blame it on illegal voting by thousands of Syrian refugees flown in from Massachusetts on Deep State aircraft, and that millions of Deplorables will believe him.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:34 pm

Holman wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:23 pmIn the event of a Jones win, I predict that Trump will blame it on illegal voting by thousands of Syrian refugees flown in from Massachusetts on Deep State aircraft, and that millions of Deplorables will believe him.

Well, it's going to be a bit harder to claim that now.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:41 pm

Smoove_B wrote:
Holman wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:23 pmIn the event of a Jones win, I predict that Trump will blame it on illegal voting by thousands of Syrian refugees flown in from Massachusetts on Deep State aircraft, and that millions of Deplorables will believe him.
Well, it's going to be a bit harder to claim that now.

Why oh why wouldn’t this be common practice? Why does it require the court to enforce this?

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Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:22 pm

Nothing surprises me anymore.

Except maybe that. That surprised me.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:20 pm

That was... really weirdly chilling.

I can't get over seeing all these right-wing extremists supporting Putin for the sake of white supremacy. I understand how it adds up in theory, but my Cold War youth still tells me it shouldn't work like that.

Every one of these shitbags is worse than Hanoi Jane, and at least she apologized.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:24 pm

Yet they have so many American supporting them with so much apathy from the other side that they stay in power and all you see is people clapping for them on tv.

And how the hell does same sex marriage hurt anyone?????

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:32 pm

Roy's spokesperson...a real dumbass.

Anderson Cooper ripping her a new one.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:50 pm

According to an opinion piece from the fake news, the race might already be over:

In Alabama, an estimated 118,000 registered voters do not have a photo ID they can use to vote. Black and Latino voters are nearly twice as likely as white voters to lack such documentation.

In other words, Alabama’s law is nothing but a naked attempt to suppress the voting rights of people of color.

And:

The photo ID law isn’t the only obstacle in front of Alabama voters. My organization is also challenging the state’s felon disfranchisement law, which affects an estimated 250,000 people here — 15 percent of Alabama’s black voting age population, but fewer than five percent of whites.

The law bars people with felonies of “moral turpitude” from voting.

I guess it's a good thing dating 14 year old girls isn't a felony of "moral turpitude" that could possibly be applicable here.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:24 am

Scoop20906 wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:41 pm
Smoove_B wrote:
Holman wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:23 pmIn the event of a Jones win, I predict that Trump will blame it on illegal voting by thousands of Syrian refugees flown in from Massachusetts on Deep State aircraft, and that millions of Deplorables will believe him.
Well, it's going to be a bit harder to claim that now.
Why oh why wouldn’t this be common practice? Why does it require the court to enforce this?

I don't have a link, but I just read that the AL Supreme Court has overturned this ruling at the government's request.

That is, the state asked not to preserve the ballots and the Court said OK.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:59 am

Holman wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:24 am
Scoop20906 wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:41 pm
Smoove_B wrote:
Holman wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:23 pmIn the event of a Jones win, I predict that Trump will blame it on illegal voting by thousands of Syrian refugees flown in from Massachusetts on Deep State aircraft, and that millions of Deplorables will believe him.
Well, it's going to be a bit harder to claim that now.
Why oh why wouldn’t this be common practice? Why does it require the court to enforce this?
I don't have a link, but I just read that the AL Supreme Court has overturned this ruling at the government's request.

That is, the state asked not to preserve the ballots and the Court said OK.

What is their stated reason for this, and how in the world is it not mandatory that the supervisors of election in each county keep a record of the ballots cast?

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:07 am

I'm just shocked anyone in Alabama knows the word "turpitude."

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:14 am

YellowKing wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:07 am I'm just shocked anyone in Alabama knows the word "turpitude."

That's that pine stuff that's used as when painting, right?

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:23 am

YellowKing wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:07 am I'm just shocked anyone in Alabama knows the word "turpitude."

Come on, now. Save that for the Deplorables.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:22 pm

YellowKing wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:07 am I'm just shocked anyone in Alabama knows the word "turpitude."

What are you trying to say? The only reason I have an inkling of what Moral Turpitude is, is because I've seen Porky's.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:38 pm

My final guess is Moore +4 as the outcome. But with polls being all over the place, I don't think there's any outcome that would really surprise me.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:42 pm

I'm torn between wanting Moore to lose because I don't support child predators in public office, and wanting Moore to win as another nail in the coffin of the Republican party.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:47 pm

YellowKing wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:42 pm I'm torn between wanting Moore to lose because I don't support child predators in public office, and wanting Moore to win as another nail in the coffin of the Republican party.

Both outcomes are bad for the Republican Party, so I'm not especially torn. The GOP needs to lose power before they will learn any real lessons.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:49 pm

YellowKing wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:42 pm I'm torn between wanting Moore to lose because I don't support child predators in public office, and wanting Moore to win as another nail in the coffin of the Republican party.

I see him as a symptom. There is no torn. I want what's best for the US and that is for the collapse of the republican party before they get their stranglehold on what it means to be legal and before the party of Trump takes us past the point of no return.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:51 pm

El Guapo wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:47 pm
YellowKing wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:42 pm I'm torn between wanting Moore to lose because I don't support child predators in public office, and wanting Moore to win as another nail in the coffin of the Republican party.
Both outcomes are bad for the Republican Party, so I'm not especially torn. The GOP needs to lose power before they will learn any real lessons.

It's a devil's bargain. The sooner it happens, the less damage they can do. The longer it takes, the more likely is that they never rise again.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:56 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:51 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:47 pm
YellowKing wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:42 pm I'm torn between wanting Moore to lose because I don't support child predators in public office, and wanting Moore to win as another nail in the coffin of the Republican party.
Both outcomes are bad for the Republican Party, so I'm not especially torn. The GOP needs to lose power before they will learn any real lessons.
It's a devil's bargain. The sooner it happens, the less damage they can do. The longer it takes, the more likely is that they never rise again.

I'm more worried that the longer it takes, the less likely it is that they'll ever have to give up power.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:43 pm

El Guapo wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:56 pm
Isgrimnur wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:51 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:47 pm
YellowKing wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:42 pm I'm torn between wanting Moore to lose because I don't support child predators in public office, and wanting Moore to win as another nail in the coffin of the Republican party.
Both outcomes are bad for the Republican Party, so I'm not especially torn. The GOP needs to lose power before they will learn any real lessons.
It's a devil's bargain. The sooner it happens, the less damage they can do. The longer it takes, the more likely is that they never rise again.
I'm more worried that the longer it takes, the less likely it is that they'll ever have to give up power.

This. The voter suppression is a horrible thing.

Captain Caveman · Post by **Captain Caveman** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:14 pm

Remus West wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:43 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:56 pm
Isgrimnur wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:51 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:47 pm
YellowKing wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:42 pm I'm torn between wanting Moore to lose because I don't support child predators in public office, and wanting Moore to win as another nail in the coffin of the Republican party.
Both outcomes are bad for the Republican Party, so I'm not especially torn. The GOP needs to lose power before they will learn any real lessons.
It's a devil's bargain. The sooner it happens, the less damage they can do. The longer it takes, the more likely is that they never rise again.
I'm more worried that the longer it takes, the less likely it is that they'll ever have to give up power.
This. The voter suppression is a horrible thing.

I worry today will be a test run.

In final-hour order, court rules that Alabama can destroy digital voting records after all

That sounds... sketchy. Also:

https://twitter.com/pemalevy/status/940213538106302464

And testimony of the voting experience this morning by one African American voter:

https://twitter.com/iAnnalise/status/940608135814934529

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:24 pm

https://twitter.com/ACLUAlabama/status/ ... 4978210816

This appears to be of some comfort.

Captain Caveman · Post by **Captain Caveman** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:30 pm

Okay, but what's the rationale for erasing the digital records? Without them you might not be able to confirm that they correctly tabulated the paper ballots. The paper ballots themselves are not counted... they're fed into the machine for tabulation.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:39 pm

"Your hair is darker"??? Is that code for, "Your skin is dark"?

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:29 pm

Watching Moore try and ride that horse to the polls is pure hilarity. Dude is clearly all hat and no cattle.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:42 pm

Moore's cowboy schtick is just macho cosplay.

link

The replies are fun.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:45 pm

No wonder he admires Putin. This could be straight out of Russian propaganda aside from the fact that Putin is a pro at this type of showmanship and this is ridiculously amateur hour at best.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:46 pm

I know absolutely nothing about horses or riding them, and even I can tell he has almost no control over his body while riding. He's tilting to one side, he's popping off the saddle without absorbing the motion with his legs, and it looks like he's falling forward onto the horse's neck when the video ends.