Political Randomness

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:18 am

Im not sure who said what but the one guy said theres a special place in hell for child molesters and some Moore supporter spokesman said theres a special place in hell for those who dont side with Trump. You reckon they'll now see that siding with Trump is a bad thing? I think the GoP has shit its bed and doesn't even realize they are doing it. Ruined their party they have.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:28 am

Daehawk wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:02 am Ok now that Jones won what exactly do the Dems gain by this win over Moore?

Well, in short, they gain a Senate seat through 2020 (once Jones is seated, which should happen late December / early January). Though I wonder if by paying for a recount they could delay Jones's seating, even if the prospects of denying him a win are slim.

The main practical consequences of that additional Senate seat are:

(1) In 2018 the GOP margin is super thin. They'll only be able to lose one GOP senator on any legislation / confirmation. Plus any GOP freakout over this loss, and the looming 2018 elections, probably raises the odds of defections at least somewhat.

(2) Perhaps more importantly, this DRAMATICALLY raises the odds that the democrats retake the Senate majority in 2018. Before this they needed a pickup of three seats to do that. They're ahead in the polls in the Senate races in Nevada and Arizona, and *should* win both (especially since 2018 should be a wildly pro-democratic year). But the plausible third seat was always ??? - they basically would have needed to win in Texas (against Ted Cruz) or in Tennessee (an open seat, but a pretty red state). Now they have the hardest victory (the win in a super red state) already banked. Nevada and Arizona are eminently doable. The remaining piece after that is holding on in the 10 democratic re-election races in states Trump won. That won't be easy either, BUT with incumbency advantages and a pro-democratic year, it's reasonably plausible.

dbt1949 · Post by **dbt1949** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:34 am

I saw where this Moore character lost his bid for the Senate. Barely.
For weeks now the liberal news media has been putting him down and you've got to think....nobody can be voting for this loser. But the truth his Trump supporters don't care what the liberal news media thinks. I'm not sure they think at all from the comments from my stepson and his wife.
I don't know how they conduct their popularity polls for Trump and show it so low but they've got to be wrong.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:44 am

Wow:

https://mobile.twitter.com/kerpen/statu ... 4109744128

Jones finishes at 93.5% of Hillary Clinton's raw vote total.
Moore at 49.8% of Trump's

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:46 am

The other crazy thing is that the exit polls, which apparently also asked whether voters support Trump, came back at Trump +1. In a state that Trump won by 28 points about a year ago.

tjg_marantz · Post by **tjg_marantz** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:52 am

https://twitter.com/TonyEquality/status ... 95872?s=09

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:01 am

Holman wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:35 pm This is a reminder that not every Alabamian is a Deplorable.

And that goes for everywhere else too.

Thanks, I needed to be reminded.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:03 am

pr0ner wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:35 pm Alabama actually did it.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:16 am

Pussy Grabber will tweet voter fraud in 3, 2, 1...

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:30 am

Thank you El Guapo. That was a clear explanation of it.

I hear Trump will now tryo to ram that tax bill through as fast as he can before Jones takes his seat. Was wondering why.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:31 am

gilraen wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:23 am
Max Peck wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:19 am
El Guapo wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:16 am I assume that someone else wrote that tweet for him.
Yup. Aside from the general tone, the grammatically correct complex sentence structure with proper capitalization and punctuation is an obvious tell.
So...we should be expecting a 5AM shittweetstorm?

Yup, he needs a little time for the media's gloating to sink in. Rage storm incoming!

Highly unlikely that Jones or any other Dem can hold this seat next time around, but a point has been made and a delicate majority just got more delicate.

Moore might try to play the sore loser recount card, but I think the GOP is relieved. He would have cost them more than one seat in the long run.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:04 am

Meh, they lost because they failed to run a very good candidate.

Hopefully learn and move on.

Hopefully they can regroup and have someone who can win ready for 2020.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:12 am

Charles Manson already died.

gbasden · Post by **gbasden** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:18 am

Rip wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:33 pm
geezer wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:29 pm

The right of women to hold elected office? The right to not have the state impose an official religion on an individual? Jones doesn't need to be at the forefront of individual liberty - he just needs to not be a regressive theocratic redneck asshole to put him miles ahead of Roy Moore..
Yea, because those are issues the congress will be deciding.

By that logic, support for gun rights is equally unimportant. The last 5 years have proved that no action will ever be taken on gun control.

tgb · Post by **tgb** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:31 am

It's a miracle Jones won, given the talent in the Moore campaign. Surpahs, surprahs, surprahs

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:44 am

Rip wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:04 am Meh, they lost because they failed to run a very good candidate.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:53 am

Rip wrote:Meh, they lost because they failed to run a very good candidate.

Hopefully learn and move on.

Hopefully they can regroup and have someone who can win ready for 2020.

If this is what sane Republicans (the ones that say Meh after losing a seat held by them for about 25 years) know then why didn’t Trump know and understand this?

Side note: do you republicans believe Trump will learn and move on?

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:58 am

The Republican Party didn’t have to support Moore (they had already cut financial ties with him) yet Trump forced them to and now they own it yet again thanks to Trump. I find it inherently frustrating to watch the Republican Party devolve under Trump and the response is ‘Meh’. I know they deserve it but America as a whole deserves better from a major party.

Trent Steel · Post by **Trent Steel** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:18 am

Daehawk wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:38 am Moore is crazy......

Roy Moore unwilling to concede: "It's not over".

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:22 am

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 08609?s=17

What a douche. He really is a textbook narcissist.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:31 am

"The deck was stacked against him."

It's hard out there for a pedophile.

tgb · Post by **tgb** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:46 am

Holman wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:31 am "The deck was stacked against him."

It's hard out there for a pedophile.

The system is rigged against them. Voter fraud!

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:14 am

Can’t delete posts in Tapatalk anymore!?

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:16 am

Rip wrote:For a group that thinks they win no matter what happens you guys sure do seem to be overly interested in this single race......

Donald Dumpster Fire wrote:https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 08609?s=17

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:43 am

Max Peck wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:44 am
Rip wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:04 am Meh, they lost because they failed to run a very good candidate.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:45 am

Lol. If only you and Trump practiced your own advice, Rip.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:55 am

GreenGoo wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:01 am
Holman wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:35 pm This is a reminder that not every Alabamian is a Deplorable.

And that goes for everywhere else too.
Thanks, I needed to be reminded.

Yep, Not all of us. I voted Jones. I'm in the one blue county in North Alabama. I was surprised Moore took so many other counties in North Alabama though since you have a lot of highly educated people around here.

If you could see the local news reporting at the campaign headquarters you can see the problem right now in Alabama. The Jones HQ showed a well diverse group of people from different races and ages...all celebrating.
The Moore HQ showed all old white people with some younger whites looking somber, crying and praying.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:07 am

Praying or preying?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:28 am

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status ... 3123731456

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:30 am

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:34 am

El Guapo wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:28 am https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status ... 3123731456

That map is insane. Almost every other district was tied at just below 50%. Pretty clearly engineered.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:35 am

Rip wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:07 amPraying or preying?

Ha!

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:36 am

Can we return to this exchange for just a minute and marvel at how crazy it is?

https://twitter.com/TheLeadCNN/status/9 ... 1742419969

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:36 am

malchior wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:34 am
El Guapo wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:28 am https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status ... 3123731456
That map is insane. Almost every other district was tied at just below 50%. Pretty clearly engineered.

Yep, gerrymandering is bad here.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:38 am

Vorret wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:30 amCDs?

Congressional Districts.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:52 am

Wow, that gerrymandering is insane. Our system is certainly busted.

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:01 am

In some non-Alabama news: The Volokh Conspiracy is no longer stuck behind Washington Post's paywall.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:26 am

Look at them. Look at them turn on one another.

I'm half expecting Mitch McConnell to pull some B.S. maneuver where he refuses to seat Jones until an obscure (and questionable) Senate rule is observed.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:29 am

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:43 am

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:26 am Look at them. Look at them turn on one another.

I'm half expecting Mitch McConnell to pull some B.S. maneuver where he refuses to seat Jones until an obscure (and questionable) Senate rule is observed.

In 2008 / 2009 Franken was kept from taking his Senate seat for more than six months by recounts (though the vote in that race was far closer than Jones v. Moore). If Moore pays for a recount, I'm curious how long he / the GOP can keep Jones from taking the seat.

I think McConnell's mainly going to be concerned with getting the tax bill done before Jones shows up. Since the Alabama Secretary of State evidently won't certify the vote until Dec. 26th, McConnell has enough time (as long as he can keep Collins, Flake, and/or McCain on board).