Max Peck wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:43 pm
That paper just explains how to calculate the efficiency gap, but doesn't explain how it's intended to be used.
No, I meant I read the scientific paper they wrote referred to in the above. Well, a couple of sections of it I read in depth, while I skimmed the rest, just like in school.
And while I get what they're doing, I still think geography makes for a better standard. Still, if they can do both in an attempt to show egregious gerrymandering (both show that it's geographically absurd and leads to lopsided results where many people's votes don't count) then so much the better.
My take is that the efficiency gap isn't intended to be used by itself, but rather as a quantitative metric alongside other evidence of gerrymandering.
Yes. As I mentioned the proposed legal test proposed by the Wisconsin plaintiffs is essentially, as I understand it:
(1) Evidence of intent;
(2) Efficiency gap / quantitative analysis;
(3) Absence of other explanations for the partisan breakdown of the map.
The FBI’s top lawyer, James Baker, is being reassigned — one of the first moves by new director Christopher A. Wray to assemble his own team of senior advisers as he tries to fend off accusations of politicization within the bureau.
Baker told colleagues he will be taking on other duties at the FBI, according to people familiar with the matter. In recent months, Baker had been caught up in a strange interagency dispute that led to a leak probe and attracted the attention of senior lawmakers, but people familiar with the matter said the probe had recently ended with a decision not to charge anyone. The leak issue had not played a part in Baker’s reassignment, these people said.
Baker, one of the most trusted, longest-serving national security officials in the government, has served as the head of the FBI’s Office of General Counsel for several years, playing a key role in the agency’s handling of major cases and policy debates, including the FBI’s unsuccessful battle with Apple over the growing use of encryption in cellphones.
Baker informed colleagues in an email Wednesday that his duties were changing at the FBI, according to people familiar with the matter. Two said he is being “reassigned’’ by Wray, but they cautioned that the change does not take effect immediately and such a move is a normal part of a new director taking charge at the bureau — not a reflection of the political controversies buffeting the FBI.
In recent days, conservatives have intensified their calls for a housecleaning of some kind at the senior levels of the FBI. Since Wray became director in August, Baker has told colleagues he expected the new boss would eventually pick someone new for his position.
He was very close to former FBI director James B. Comey, who asked Baker to be his general counsel. They were colleagues at the Justice Department and when they were out of government at Bridgewater Associates, an investment management firm.
"What? What?What?" -- The 14th Doctor
It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
The FBI’s top lawyer, James Baker, is being reassigned — one of the first moves by new director Christopher A. Wray to assemble his own team of senior advisers as he tries to fend off accusations of politicization within the bureau.
Baker told colleagues he will be taking on other duties at the FBI, according to people familiar with the matter. In recent months, Baker had been caught up in a strange interagency dispute that led to a leak probe and attracted the attention of senior lawmakers, but people familiar with the matter said the probe had recently ended with a decision not to charge anyone. The leak issue had not played a part in Baker’s reassignment, these people said.
Baker, one of the most trusted, longest-serving national security officials in the government, has served as the head of the FBI’s Office of General Counsel for several years, playing a key role in the agency’s handling of major cases and policy debates, including the FBI’s unsuccessful battle with Apple over the growing use of encryption in cellphones.
Baker informed colleagues in an email Wednesday that his duties were changing at the FBI, according to people familiar with the matter. Two said he is being “reassigned’’ by Wray, but they cautioned that the change does not take effect immediately and such a move is a normal part of a new director taking charge at the bureau — not a reflection of the political controversies buffeting the FBI.
In recent days, conservatives have intensified their calls for a housecleaning of some kind at the senior levels of the FBI. Since Wray became director in August, Baker has told colleagues he expected the new boss would eventually pick someone new for his position.
He was very close to former FBI director James B. Comey, who asked Baker to be his general counsel. They were colleagues at the Justice Department and when they were out of government at Bridgewater Associates, an investment management firm.
Fwiw, an expert in the field I was just listening to suggested under normal circumstances it would raise zero eyebrows. Due to the completely overt campaign of Trump allies to discredit and Sabotage the FBI however, even if it was legit it has the stink of Russia investigation all over it.
On a whirlwind tour around the globe, Trump’s former aide and alter ego reveals what really went down in the White House, his unfettered thoughts on Javanka, his complicated relationship with his erstwhile boss—and his own political ambitions.
It's an interesting read.
"What? What?What?" -- The 14th Doctor
It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
Bannon could conceivably beat Trump in the primaries, especially as Trump continues to compromise more and more with entrenched Washington norms in order to get anything whatsoever done.
Bannon might be able to beat Trump, but I'm not so sure he'd be able to win the primaries. In the 2016 primaries, Trump won with a plurality due to the ridiculous number of contenders. If the moderate/sane conservative wing of the GOP were to challenge him and consolidate support around a single candidate from the get-go they could prevail, especially if the radical wingnut vote were to be split between Trump and Bannon.
That assumes, of course, that a moderate and/or sane wing of the GOP exists in 2020. And that there will be free and fair elections.
"What? What?What?" -- The 14th Doctor
It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
Good point. The wingnuts would probably split between Trump loyalists and Bannon purists. I doubt that the establishment could put aside its differences to unite behind a moderate, so you'd be looking once again at a field too divided to conquer.
Max Peck wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:30 pm
That assumes, of course, that a moderate and/or sane wing of the GOP exists in 2020. And that there will be free and fair elections.
Sadly, very true. November will be our last chance to prevent Republicans' permanent consolidation of power, and I have great confidence in Democrats' ability to throw away their advantage (as well as the electorate's inability to muster enough fucks to give).
--------------------------------------------
I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake. http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
When in doubt, skewer it out...I don't know.
Skinypupy wrote: Mon Dec 25, 2017 9:18 pm
I fully agree. His bootlicking this year has gone beyond pathetic.
Sadly, every paper in the country could post a similar article, and it wouldn't change a thing.
EDIT: Hatch apparently gave the article the same scrutiny he gave the tax bill. He retweeted it, calling it "an honor" to receive the award from the Trib.
I'm kind of hoping that Hatch winds up running for reelection. If he doesn't Romney's going to run and presumably crush everyone, which would likely be a huge improvement over Hatch. But I'm not sure I fully trust Romney to be sufficiently anti-Trump when in office, and he'd be a vote for McConnell as majority leader, which enables Trump almost no matter what else Romney does.
Whereas Hatch, being pretty unpopular in Utah at this point, running for reelection opens up a lot of potential Doug Jones style possibilities for the Senate race.
I think Trump must have sent Moore his "what to do when I lose the election" plan.
I can't imagine, even at my most inebriated, hearing a bouncer offering me an hour with a stripper for only $1,400 and thinking That sounds like a reasonable idea.-Two Sheds
Everything seems to indicate they are going to ignore Moore and certify Jones as the winner as Moore has absolutely no evidence to back his claims, but we'll see.
Yeah, state officials have (thankfully) indicated that they're going to go ahead and certify. Moore has to get a preliminary injunction to have any shot. Of course, convincing a federal judge to enjoin a Senate election in the absence of, you know, evidence, is no small thing, though I guess they could get lucky on the judge.
Not sure how much judge shopping they can do, though. I think you'd have to file this in Alabama federal court, and the district court system would assign the judge. Potentially you could squeeze it into one of the district courts (Northern, Middle, or Southern district) based upon where you're saying the conduct happened, so I guess if one district is known to have crazier / more conservative district judges you'd pick that, but you wouldn't get to pick the individual judge.
This would have been Trump's playbook if he had lost too. As an article awhile back pointed out, if someone wanted to rig this election, they would have needed to bus in or otherwise manufacture 40,000 votes to ensure winning by 20,000 votes. Try to imagine the logistics of bussing in a city worth of fake voters and getting them voter id.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Pyperkub wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:56 pm
This would have been Trump's playbook if he had lost too. As an article awhile back pointed out, if someone wanted to rig this election, they would have needed to bus in or otherwise manufacture 40,000 votes to ensure winning by 20,000 votes. Try to imagine the logistics of bussing in a city worth of fake voters and getting them voter id.
Even that wouldn't be enough unless you somehow knew the election would be close enough (in Alabama!) for just 20,000 votes to swing it.
Holman wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:45 am
He's literally claiming that the election should be voided because turnout in black areas was higher than usual.
...with the unspoken "despite our best efforts to suppress it."
Speaking with CNN's Dana Bash on Thursday, Moore campaign spokeswoman Janet Porter issued the warning to Gov. Kay Ivey (R) and Secretary of State John Merrill, who are set to meet this afternoon to certify Jones.
...
“Here's the thing that Gov. Ivey needs to know: She's up for reelection too and there are 650,000 people who are watching this very closely, what they do right now,” Porter said.
“If they certify what has been proven by three independent experts that say this is fraudulent enough to overturn this entire election, they are going to be accountable at the voting booth.”
Porter went on to note that if illegal voters “can steal the election from Roy Moore,” they could “steal” an election from Ivey or Merrill in the future, as she sought to underscore the importance of investigating the campaign's allegations.
...
Porter also defended the campaign against questions about one of the election experts that it cited in the court brief, Richard Charnin.
Charnin has claimed there is a “less than one in 15 billion” chance that voter fraud played no role in the Alabama outcome.
Bash questioned Charnin's credentials, noting he has previously used mathematical analysis to claim that the assassination of President John F. Kennedy was a conspiracy.
“Maybe he got a parking ticket yesterday — that is irrelevant to the case,” Porter replied.
And he has his own Wordpress blog. Surely Wordpress wouldn't just let someone use their platform to go on the Internet and tell lies!
A judge has denied Roy Moore's request to halt certification of Doug Jones' win in the Alabama U.S. Senate race.
...
Montgomery County Circuit Judge Johnny Hardwick issued an order denying Moore's request to halt the certification at 12:26 p.m. Thursday. "The court is of the opinion that it does not have jurisdiction pursuant to Section 17-16-44, Code of Alabama 1975; as amended. It is therefore, ORDERED, ADJUDGED and DECREED that the Motion for Temporary Restraining Order be and is hereby denied. It is further ordered that this matter is hereby dismissed," he stated.
“If they certify what has been proven by three independent experts that say this is fraudulent enough to overturn this entire election, they are going to be accountable at the voting booth.”
There's something else that's just about ready to be certifi(able) here, and it ain't the election.
As a glutton for punishment I bothered to read the analysis that Richard Charnin completed and the complaint itself. There are some interesting and one hilariously irrelevant bit in there. I'll start with the irrelevant bit - they attached an affadavit to the complaint that states that Moore took a polygraph and successfully refuted the allegations that came up during the campaign. First off bullshit. Secondly how it is germane to a motion about electoral fraud. I suspect his lawyer knows it is worthless but he has to keep the client happy who is likely trying so, so hard not to be seen as the lowlife pond scum he is.
That said Charnin's analysis is posted publicly on his blog as a spreadsheet. It is a tabulated list of registered voters, voters by party affiliation and race, and votes cast, etc. From that he did used the CORREL function in Google Sheets which is a Pearson Correlation. It indicates if there is a linear correlation between sets of data. The sheet has a few minor and immaterial calculation errors but it shows a few interesting correlations. Mostly around various segment turnouts. Is it interesting? Sure and might be worth pursuing as a political scientist but there isn't a clear fraud angle in just that.
So how does those correlations tie to fraud? Hard to tell - he has a 'Prob' tab with an analysis that is not well documented. From reading the complaint it boils down seemingly to unexpected high turnout in key Dem counties versus unexpected low turnout in some Rep precincts. Also in the mix is difference from exit and pre-election polling. Not a strong case at all. Absent something more than that I'd brush it off to THEY RAN A CHILD MOLESTER and leave it at that. Not too scientific on my part but it isn't like this analysis wasn't much more than lying through stats either.
Skinypupy wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:44 pm
Moore is working for Jeebus. I thought everyone knew that!
I mean, I think this is it. Moore seems to think that he's working pursuant to God's will. God wouldn't possibly have the electorate reject him in a fair election, therefore there must have been fraud.
Speaking with CNN's Dana Bash on Thursday, Moore campaign spokeswoman Janet Porter issued the warning to Gov. Kay Ivey (R) and Secretary of State John Merrill, who are set to meet this afternoon to certify Jones.
...
“Here's the thing that Gov. Ivey needs to know: She's up for reelection too and there are 650,000 people who are watching this very closely, what they do right now,” Porter said.
“If they certify what has been proven by three independent experts that say this is fraudulent enough to overturn this entire election, they are going to be accountable at the voting booth.”
Porter went on to note that if illegal voters “can steal the election from Roy Moore,” they could “steal” an election from Ivey or Merrill in the future, as she sought to underscore the importance of investigating the campaign's allegations.
...
Porter also defended the campaign against questions about one of the election experts that it cited in the court brief, Richard Charnin.
Charnin has claimed there is a “less than one in 15 billion” chance that voter fraud played no role in the Alabama outcome.
Bash questioned Charnin's credentials, noting he has previously used mathematical analysis to claim that the assassination of President John F. Kennedy was a conspiracy.
“Maybe he got a parking ticket yesterday — that is irrelevant to the case,” Porter replied.
And he has his own Wordpress blog. Surely Wordpress wouldn't just let someone use their platform to go on the Internet and tell lies!
OH NOES! A Republican candidate who could not get a majority of the vote in Alabama is threatening me with his voting coalition! Ivey must be terrified.
Romanian hackers took over two-thirds of Washington, D.C.’s outdoor surveillance cameras just before President Trump’s inauguration, according to a federal criminal complaint unsealed Thursday.
The January attack affected 123 of the D.C. police department’s 187 outdoor surveillance cameras, leaving them unable to record for several days. Two Romanians, who law enforcement officials describe as part of a bigger extortionist hacking group, are being charged in D.C. federal court with fraud and computer crimes.
...
Alexandru Isvanca, 25, and Eveline Cismaru, 28, were arrested in Romania earlier this month, along with three other Romanian hackers who will face prosecution in Europe. The U.S. charges, filed under seal on Dec. 11, were first reported by CNN.
Prosecutors plan to seek extradition for Isvanca and Cismaru soon, according to court filings. They both face up to 20 years in prison if convicted.
On Jan. 12, D.C. police noticed that several surveillance cameras were not functioning properly. Secret Service Agent Brian Kaiser was given access to the computers that operate the cameras, according to the court filing, and saw that they had been taken over by non-police users. Those people were sending spam messages infected with ransomware to a long list of email addresses.
The city resolved the problem by taking the devices offline, removing all software and restarting the system at each site, a process that took about two days, according to police. From Jan. 12 to Jan. 15, none of the cameras were able to record video. No ransom was paid.
The article also has some delightful details about the extracurricular activities of Moore's experts. You're going to find this shocking, but one of them is not a big fan of the Jews.
Synopsis: Gentrification was brought about by proactive policing and pushed those filthy, crime-ridden curs (black people) out and solved crime. Except those curs still live in the city - just elsewhere - not committing crimes. Also somehow the Dear Leader helped to stop crime (seriously she makes this claim).
Tech Warning: Only read if you want to punch your monitor.
