Star Wars - Revenge of the Sith - Game Over

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:17 pm

Good morning!

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:45 pm

El Guapo

He's overdue for an evil role. I think. I don't know.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:00 pm

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:37 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:51 am RMC

Due to his long history of devilry.

Hey! You are a new one to pick on me!
But I resemble that remark.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:48 pm

I gotta ask: what's the deal with day starts in recent games?

Day 1 voting always feels so random. I feel like I'm supposed to watch for slip-ups that will reveal who's a Wolf, but the experienced players aren't going to make any of those, and the newer players (which I guess is still Punisher) will be forgiven because of their newness.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:27 pm

That’s some real good fan fiction, bb2112.

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Punisher · Post by **Punisher** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:51 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:48 pm I gotta ask: what's the deal with day starts in recent games?

Day 1 voting always feels so random. I feel like I'm supposed to watch for slip-ups that will reveal who's a Wolf, but the experienced players aren't going to make any of those, and the newer players (which I guess is still Punisher) will be forgiven because of their newness.

Well, if we start at night we go into the first day with no real info anyway which means it still feels random. (Unless a seer come out with a great scan, which I dont think happens unless they are close to getting lynched. We dont really get any other info by starting at night)

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:14 pm

Absolutely, I agree.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:20 pm

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:21 pm

Chaosraven wrote:

Enough Alts already, Moliere.

Punisher · Post by **Punisher** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:38 pm

Scoop20906 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:21 pm
Chaosraven wrote:
Enough Alts already, Moliere.

One day this game will be nothing but his alts...

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:26 pm

Punisher wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:38 pm
Scoop20906 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:21 pm
Chaosraven wrote:
Enough Alts already, Moliere.
One day this game will be nothing but his alts...

One day?

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:34 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:26 pm
Punisher wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:38 pm
Scoop20906 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:21 pm
Chaosraven wrote:
Enough Alts already, Moliere.
One day this game will be nothing but his alts...
One day?

I'm still me...I think, or am I?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:42 am

Lassr wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:34 am
El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:26 pm
Punisher wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:38 pm
Scoop20906 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:21 pm
Chaosraven wrote:
Enough Alts already, Moliere.
One day this game will be nothing but his alts...
One day?
I'm still me...I think, or am I?

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:23 am

Attack of the clones?

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:42 am

RMC

he made a post without voting for Remus. Very strange behavior.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:46 am

I think it's Moliere and Scoop.

Moliere

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:03 am

Lassr wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:42 am RMC

he made a post without voting for Remus. Very strange behavior.

Oh dear god, you saw through my plot to frame Remus, by not voting for him with my first post.

With that said. Remus West

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:24 am

Unagi

If he isn't the Alpha then whichever of you is probably chose him to avoid being chased by him.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:40 am

Punisher wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:51 pm
Holman wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:48 pm I gotta ask: what's the deal with day starts in recent games?

Day 1 voting always feels so random. I feel like I'm supposed to watch for slip-ups that will reveal who's a Wolf, but the experienced players aren't going to make any of those, and the newer players (which I guess is still Punisher) will be forgiven because of their newness.
Well, if we start at night we go into the first day with no real info anyway which means it still feels random. (Unless a seer come out with a great scan, which I dont think happens unless they are close to getting lynched. We dont really get any other info by starting at night)

well a night start gives the seer a scan so when we eventually reveal him on day one he has info to disperse. Plus you have the night kill which could provide some info.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:52 am

I kinda like a night start even if it's a bit "gimmicky" since someone dies without any input at all. But it sure changes the dynamic of the first day.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:12 am

I like a night start since (unless the wolves get stupid lucky and kill the seer) there's at least some data available to someone during the first vote.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:52 am

punisher

Yup!

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:01 pm

Hmm I are we killing by seniority ? I wouldn't go first if we do that !

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:02 pm

Wait... SHIT.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:05 pm

Remus West wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:24 am Unagi

If he isn't the Alpha then whichever of you is probably chose him to avoid being chased by him.

Hmmm, this is actually a good point, although I still don't want to throw away Unagi on a day 1 vote.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:11 pm

The theory that wolves are "afraid of me" is not found to be an actual thing.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Wed Jan 31, 2018 2:06 pm

Unagi wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:11 pm The theory that wolves are "afraid of me" is not found to be an actual thing.

That's true, I fear you and I'm no wolf.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:47 am

Scoop

just because he's quiet which is un-Scoop-Like.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:10 am

This unscoop like behavior seems sinister... Or maybe he is beging Regal...Like an Emperor... !!!!

Therefore he is a Duck!!!

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:31 am

Are there Sith ducks?

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:38 am

Vorret wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:31 am Are there Sith ducks?

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:59 am

Well I'm convinced.

Scoop

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:02 pm

Vorret wrote:Well I'm convinced.

Scoop

No way am I a senior!!

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Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:09 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:05 pm
Remus West wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:24 am Unagi

If he isn't the Alpha then whichever of you is probably chose him to avoid being chased by him.
Hmmm, this is actually a good point, although I still don't want to throw away Unagi on a day 1 vote.

So you agree that Unagi would be a likely choice for the Count but find it better to lynch elsewhere. I see.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:38 pm

Remus West wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:09 pm
El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:05 pm
Remus West wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:24 am Unagi

If he isn't the Alpha then whichever of you is probably chose him to avoid being chased by him.
Hmmm, this is actually a good point, although I still don't want to throw away Unagi on a day 1 vote.
So you agree that Unagi would be a likely choice for the Count but find it better to lynch elsewhere. I see.

I am always reluctant to lynch Unagi early (when there is little information) because he's so good at wolf hunting, so I don't want to throw that away unless and until there's firm suspicion of wolfiness.

I agree with your point that the odds of Unagi being a wolf are probably higher than the odds would be if the wolves were assigned purely by RNG.

However, it's still pretty speculative - without knowing *who* is picking (who the alpha is), going by who an unknown person might be inclined to pick, I'm not sure the "who would get picked?" is *all that* probative. Like last game the Alpha picked by RNG, right? So I'm not sure the value of that is enough to support lynching Unagi on day 1.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:24 pm

I wasn't talking about "who was Alpha" though. I was simply speculating that Unagi would be a popular Count pick - regardless of who Alpha is - due to his ability to find wolves. Lets say that half the players, if picked as Alpha would pick Unagi as Count and the other half would pick Count by RNG.

Just from the first assumption that half the people would choose him he has better than 50/50 odds of being bad (6/11 in fact). Add in the chance to get randomly chosen and the odds he is bad go up.

All of which discounts people intentionally bucking the trend and not picking him simply because he would be likely to be picked etc. Still, it remains that of all the players he has the highest odds of being a bad guy.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:31 pm

Kill the Alts!!!

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El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:36 pm

Remus West wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:24 pm I wasn't talking about "who was Alpha" though. I was simply speculating that Unagi would be a popular Count pick - regardless of who Alpha is - due to his ability to find wolves. Lets say that half the players, if picked as Alpha would pick Unagi as Count and the other half would pick Count by RNG.

Just from the first assumption that half the people would choose him he has better than 50/50 odds of being bad (6/11 in fact). Add in the chance to get randomly chosen and the odds he is bad go up.

All of which discounts people intentionally bucking the trend and not picking him simply because he would be likely to be picked etc. Still, it remains that of all the players he has the highest odds of being a bad guy.

I just figure that the partner-picking methodology would vary a lot between different alphas. Like, some might do RNG, some might pick someone who is a great wolf-hunter, some might pick someone who is less likely to be lynched, some might pick someone with a specific in-thread wolf dynamic in mind, someone might pick a partner for the LOLs. And there's the whole "game of wits with a Sicilian with death on the line" factor thrown in, where you want to pick someone who you think everyone else thinks won't be picked.

All that is to say, Unagi probably has an elevated chance of being picked (though I'm not sure I would agree that it's the *highest* chance). But then I also assign players as being of different value to the village (if good), and Unagi has one of the highest values.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:37 pm

Scoop20906 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:31 pm Kill the Alts!!!

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