Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

[Isgrimnur]

Personal: -3.67%

[LordMortis]

Non retirement (3.89%) (I don;t see font color options on my post anymore so pretend that's red)

[Carpet_pissr]

This is the correction you're seeking.

Maybe now time to buy more AMZN. Or tomorrow.

[LawBeefaroni]

Still not as cash heavy as I'd like but it helped today. Kind of like an airbag in a car crash.

[Pyperkub]

This is the correction you're seeking.

Maybe now time to buy more AMZN. Or tomorrow.

Is it just me who sees $1k+/share and thinks it's not worth it, even if the money invested would be the same if it were 100 shares @ $10+/share? It's the same portion of the damn company, so it *shouldn't* make a difference, and yet it does.

I suspect that a side benefit is that it makes it *appear* to be a premium/elite stock...

Edit: FWIW, down another $11/share (00.79%) in after hours trading so far...

[Zaxxon]

OMG, VFINX is only up 0.6% in the last month! Run for the exits! Get out while you can! The sky is falling! Sell sell sell!

[Carpet_pissr]

This is the correction you're seeking.

Maybe now time to buy more AMZN. Or tomorrow.

Is it just me who sees $1k+/share and thinks it's not worth it, even if the money invested would be the same if it were 100 shares @ $10+/share? It's the same portion of the damn company, so it *shouldn't* make a difference, and yet it does.

I suspect that a side benefit is that it makes it *appear* to be a premium/elite stock...

Edit: FWIW, down another $11/share (00.79%) in after hours trading so far...

In reading about reasons for splitting a stock, that is one usually listed, FWIW. Such a high price per share might make some retail investors balk, if for no other reason than psychological.

[pr0ner]

This is the correction you're seeking.

Maybe now time to buy more AMZN. Or tomorrow.

Is it just me who sees $1k+/share and thinks it's not worth it, even if the money invested would be the same if it were 100 shares @ $10+/share? It's the same portion of the damn company, so it *shouldn't* make a difference, and yet it does.

I suspect that a side benefit is that it makes it *appear* to be a premium/elite stock...

Edit: FWIW, down another $11/share (00.79%) in after hours trading so far...

In reading about reasons for splitting a stock, that is one usually listed, FWIW. Such a high price per share might make some retail investors balk, if for no other reason than psychological.

I think that is a big reason why AAPL split.

[noxiousdog]

This is the correction you're seeking.

Maybe now time to buy more AMZN. Or tomorrow.

Is it just me who sees $1k+/share and thinks it's not worth it, even if the money invested would be the same if it were 100 shares @ $10+/share? It's the same portion of the damn company, so it *shouldn't* make a difference, and yet it does.

I suspect that a side benefit is that it makes it *appear* to be a premium/elite stock...

Edit: FWIW, down another $11/share (00.79%) in after hours trading so far...

It doesn't. See Berkshire.

[noxiousdog]

In reading about reasons for splitting a stock, that is one usually listed, FWIW. Such a high price per share might make some retail investors balk, if for no other reason than psychological.

Those kind of investors don't move the needle.

[Carpet_pissr]

About 15% retail investors for Amazon from what I can tell.

[pr0ner]

Guess who Sean Hannity blamed the past couple of days worth of stock market selloffs on?

Obama.

“Because the Obama economy was so weak all of these years, we had just artificially cheap money,” Hannity said, referring to a Fox News analysis he had seen on the cable network.

He explained that “cheap money” is from borrowing at “ridiculously low rates,” which he added must now end.

“The government has artificially, the Fed has artificially, kept the price of money down and the price of borrowing down, and now that’s going to come to an end.”

Then, he declared that the plunge ― which saw stocks erase all their 2018 gains ― is actually good.

“In many ways, it’s a sign of the strength of the economy more than anything else,” he said in comments posted online by Media Matters.

[LawBeefaroni]

XIV went from over $100 to around $4 yesterday. Hearing that liquidation is next. Short VIX? Really?


XIV Black swan.

[LordMortis]

My old man gets in and out and in and out of one of those roulette stocks. I wonder if he got caught holding the bag and if so if he made enough before doing so and also if so if he learned his lesson. His stock is somehow based on gold but he doesn't actually own any gold. He tried explaining it to me and it sounded like a gimmick and not an asset.

[Carpet_pissr]

Bought more GM, CVS and ESRX (General Motors, CVS Pharmacy and Express Scripts) this morning. The Berkshire/Amazon scare plus this tiny correction is a buying opportunity for the PBM stocks IMO.

Still have not bought more AMZN. Didn't drop enough (at all), whatever that means.

FWIW, after buying more GM this morning, and averaging out the gains, my GM shares are up 23%, and my long held Ford shares are down the exact same %. Not sure what to make of that, if anything. Get yer shit together, Ford?

[noxiousdog]

About 15% retail investors for Amazon from what I can tell.

I assume you're talking about institutional ownership? That wouldn't include anything someone like Soros or Buffett is doing with their private accounts.

[malchior]

XIV went from over $100 to around $4 yesterday. Hearing that liquidation is next. Short VIX? Really?


XIV Black swan.

That is an idiotic product for idiots. At least he recognized it. The links at the bottom explain it - his inputs are shit data.

[LordMortis]

FWIW, after buying more GM this morning, and averaging out the gains, my GM shares are up 23%, and my long held Ford shares are down the exact same %. Not sure what to make of that, if anything. Get yer shit together, Ford?

Volatility for the win? The Loss? At this very moment if you bought F at open you'd be up over 3% and rising in just, what, 45 minutes.

[LordMortis]

Over 10% in about a week. Now December and January's gains are no longer there. If SPY dips below 260, it will be tempting to pull some of my future car money and gamble on timing...

...

Edit and below 260 we go but I'm not playing the game of trying to arrange a deposit with ten minutes before the bell.

[LordMortis]

Previous Close 267.67
Price Open 268.01

257.63USDPrice decrease10.04 (3.75%)

Yowchee.

[Pyperkub]

Over 10% in about a week. Now December and January's gains are no longer there. If SPY dips below 260, it will be tempting to pull some of my future car money and gamble on timing...

...

Edit and below 260 we go but I'm not playing the game of trying to arrange a deposit with ten minutes before the bell.

Note that all of this is prior to any actual interest rate increases in 2018. Next meeting of the Fed is March 20/21. May be worth waiting until after that meeting (at least), given that they have planned 3 interest rate hikes this year (I'm pretty sure they are only announced at those pressers, but maybe someone more dialed in can confirm).

From the article, the budget deal is including a lot more deficit financing, and that will impact the rates:

Fed Chair Janet Yellen noted that while tax cuts are likely to boost demand in the economy, she also expects a lower corporate rate and tax incentives for investment to boost supply and, potentially, productivity, curbing their inflationary impact.

Yellen did raise a longer-term concern about tax cuts adding to U.S. public debt, "taking what is already a significant problem and making it worse." She added that Congress may have less "fiscal space" for stimulus to help lift the economy out of future recessions.

[pr0ner]

I wonder if Hannity will blame it on Obama again.

[malchior]

What a week so far. It is leaving me to wonder if something bigger isn't going on. We'll see eventually after it stabilizes but right now it looks like a lot of people got caught off-sides. This doesn't feel like portfolio reallocation or pure algo trading solely at this point. I'm almost on board with the VIX/hedge fund theory that some are kicking around in finance world.

[Carpet_pissr]

It’s a correction. People always get caught off sides when these occur.

[LordMortis]

Dipping another percentage point today driving us back to September.

[Carpet_pissr]

BUY BUY BUY

[LordMortis]

If I had the money, I would. And if it constitutes to go down, I'd buy more. The market is definitely a level I'd feel comfortable with, even it continues to slide.

[Zaxxon]

BUY BUY BUY

Yep.

[Pyperkub]

What a week so far. It is leaving me to wonder if something bigger isn't going on. We'll see eventually after it stabilizes but right now it looks like a lot of people got caught off-sides. This doesn't feel like portfolio reallocation or pure algo trading solely at this point. I'm almost on board with the VIX/hedge fund theory that some are kicking around in finance world.

I had to look up VIX (Volatility Index):

We have all heard the VIX or volatility index referred to as the Fear Index or Fear Gauge. Rising VIX was meant to signal fear in the markets. That is how most investors have historically thought about VIX and traded it (directly or through Exchange Traded Products).

But is this the "VIX/Hedge Fund theory you speak of?

Ever since Simon Potter's 2012 arrival as head of The NYFed's trading desk, the manipulation of VIX (and thus its reflexive levered tail wagging the algo-driven dog of the indices) has been front-and-center day-after-day in the so-called US equity 'market'. Since the introduction of VIX ETFs there has been an almost inexhaustible supply of conspiracy theory coincidental evidence of a mysteriously well-capitalized market participant always willing to step on the neck of any volatility-spike, thus protecting poor market participants from any prospective plunge

The thing about that article is that it doesn't go back far enough in the graph:



To me, that looks like an economy which was recovering from a huge recession/depression event moving into a Bull Market.

[malchior]

The VIX theory kicking around is in a nutshell that a lot of hedge fund managers got caught offsides in these idiotic VIX ETNs because they built a portfolio position that was hedged against "the fear index". Which is fucking stupid. The result would be forced selling to cover losses. At least that is some of it. It makes some sense but is so idiotic it is hard to believe. But then again 2008 happened and these guys are always pushing the envelope for an edge.

[noxiousdog]

BUY BUY BUY

Yep.

Careful

Rosenberg noted how the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 16 basis points during the drop.

"I cannot tell you how rare a market condition this is – that yields are rising into this risk pullback," he wrote in a note to clients Friday.

Rosenberg cited how bonds rallied during the financial crisis in 2008 when the market fell and during other big corrections.

"But not this time. This rare occurrence of bond yields rising even as stock markets decline was a feature in 1987 and 1994," he added. "What these periods had in common was Fed tightening concerns, jitters over economic overheating and an ever-flatter yield curve. One of these years had a huge correction and one had massive volatility and rolling corrections. Pick your poison."

This correction is well overdue. The S&P 500 PE was 25.45 at the end of 2017. The median is 15.

Or maybe this time it's different.

[Pyperkub]

This correction is well overdue. The S&P 500 PE was 25.45 at the end of 2017. The median is 15.

Or maybe this time it's different.

Hard to tell as the corporate tax cut hasn't fully kicked in yet - the increased bottom lines from that would definitely warrant a spike in P/E of Public companies in good shape, but I'm not sure when/if it will normalize, especially with the interest rate hikes on the way. I think at least a year, maybe two to really see that impact on P/E.

[Carpet_pissr]

BUY BUY BUY

Yep.

Careful

Rosenberg noted how the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 16 basis points during the drop.

"I cannot tell you how rare a market condition this is – that yields are rising into this risk pullback," he wrote in a note to clients Friday.

Rosenberg cited how bonds rallied during the financial crisis in 2008 when the market fell and during other big corrections.

"But not this time. This rare occurrence of bond yields rising even as stock markets decline was a feature in 1987 and 1994," he added. "What these periods had in common was Fed tightening concerns, jitters over economic overheating and an ever-flatter yield curve. One of these years had a huge correction and one had massive volatility and rolling corrections. Pick your poison."

Uhhh, the yield in those two years he references was between 8 and a whopping 12, extreme highs even looking at a 30+ year period. It was barely above 2 just a few weeks ago.

[noxiousdog]

This correction is well overdue. The S&P 500 PE was 25.45 at the end of 2017. The median is 15.

Or maybe this time it's different.

Hard to tell as the corporate tax cut hasn't fully kicked in yet - the increased bottom lines from that would definitely warrant a spike in P/E of Public companies in good shape, but I'm not sure when/if it will normalize, especially with the interest rate hikes on the way. I think at least a year, maybe two to really see that impact on P/E.

It doesn't. It would be a spike in earnings, not PE.

Goldman Sachs says it will have about an 8% increase in earnings. And it's already baked in.

[Carpet_pissr]

Curse, I think I missed my chance to buy more AMZN on that recent dip. It was strong through the correction because of the recent earnings release, but probably not as strong as it would have been sans correction. Now it's making up for that (maybe).

Ah well. Hopefully there will be another opportunity soon, and maybe the correction is not over.

New positions bought mid-correction:
DUK (Duke Energy)
MCHP (Microchip Technology)

Added to existing positions:
ESRX
GM
CVS

Back to less than 5% cash now, after my little buying spree.

[Isgrimnur]

USA Today

U.S. stocks finished higher for a fourth straight session and climbed back into positive territory for the year as traders shrugged off the latest sign that inflation is firming.

Wednesday's rally, which materialized despite a report that showed consumer prices in January rose faster than expected, continues a rebound following last week's massive market plunge that had knocked the Dow down more than 10% from its high and caused market fear to spike. Signs of stability have eased fears that the market was on the verge of a major decline.
...
At the close of trading, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 253 points, or 1.0%, at 24,893.49. The Dow is still 6.5% below its Jan. 26 record high but up 0.7% for the year.
...
The stock market's rise Wednesday coincided with a big drop in Wall Street's "fear gauge," known as the VIX. The VIX, a gauge of future market volatility in the next 30 days, fell by more than 20% Wednesday to a level below 20. That's nearly half of where it was on Feb. 5 when it more than doubled in a single day and closed at 37.32, a record spike that exacerbated turbulence in the stock market.
...
For now, stock investors are focusing on market positives, such as a strong U.S. economy, a solid labor market and growth in most economies around the world, says Ripley.

[Moliere]

[LawBeefaroni]

Bought in AMZN on 9/6/2017. Looking at that chart, I should really sell.

[noxiousdog]

Bought in AMZN on 9/6/2017. Looking at that chart, I should really sell.

You really make sell decisions without looking at earnings?

[Carpet_pissr]

Yeah, as much as it goes against human nature, I try hard not to buy or sell based on share price (relative to itself). Not sure I would go so far as to say that the "52 week high/low" numbers are traps, but pretty close (as it pertains to psychological effect of buying/selling stock).