The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

[El Guapo]

1) FBI Director Chris Wray clarified a timeline on the Rob Porter allegations that suggests the WH has known about them for eleven months. (Sarah Sanders tried pushing the line that the administration heard about the allegations the same day we did.)

It's always sort of amusing that so many Trump administration justifications are also incriminating on their own terms. Like, the Porter allegations are a matter of public record. So if the White House truly did not know about them until the same day that they blew up in the media, then there were some major fuck-ups in the background check process and/or the communication of the results of the background checks up to the White House.

[LordMortis]

I don't think there are any Russians
And there ain't no Yanks
Just corporate criminals
Playin' with tanks

Nyah yah yah yah
yah yah yah

[Smoove_B]

It's good to see that some people are starting to think that maybe there's a good chance President Trump is being blackmailed.

Indeed, sex is not the only kind of secret Trump harbors. He endured months of criticism first from Republican candidates, then Democrats, and all along from the media, for refusing to disclose his tax returns. Trump clearly feels protective of his financial information. Some of that information is in the hands of his business partners, many of whom are associated with Russia or are unsavory in some other way. All in all, the odds are disconcertingly high that Russia, or somebody, has blackmail leverage over the president of the United States.

[malchior]

Are there no laws against shit like that? He seems to be a real shitheaded moron. Should be some law against stupid people doing stupid things in a Gov job. Course then we'd have no gov at all.

I think you should rethink that attitude. "EVERYONE in government is stupid!" isn't true, and it stokes the kind of reaction that gives us Trump.

True. A lot of the bureaucracy isn't stupid even if there are some issues with the civil service. However the "political" leadership class in this administration are incredibly incompetent. And they are calling the shots. The Obama administration had some outliers of incompetence too but on the whole his administration was very competent.

[malchior]

It's breaking that Mueller named and indicted 13 Russian nationals and 3 Russian entities for Russian hacking in the election. So much for the nothingburger.

[Isgrimnur]

Indictment on Scribd

CNBC

The indictment says that the defendants by early to mid-2016 were "supporting the presidential campaign of then-candidate Donald J. Trump ... and disparaging Hillary Clinton."

The indictment said "the organization," known as the Internet Research Agency LLC, "sought, in part, to conduct what it called 'information warfare against the United States of America' through fictitious U.S. personas on social media platforms and other Internet-based media."

"By in or around May 2014, the organization's strategy included interfering with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, with the stated goal of "spread[ing] distrust towards the candidates and the political system in general," the indictment said.

An announcement from Mueller's office said that the government accuses all the defendants of conspiracy to defraud the United States.

Three defendants are charged with conspiracy to commit wire fraud and bank fraud.

Five defendants are charged with aggravated identity theft.

[El Guapo]

Well! Seems like it's going to be marginally harder for Republicans to rotely assert that there's nothing to uncover. Although I'm sure that they're still going to try.

[El Guapo]

Also, there are lots of reports that Gates - Manafort's second in command- is close to a plea deal with Mueller.

Those two guys on Trump's team with legal pads better kick it up a notch.

[LordMortis]

I just went through that and holy shit. Trumps response is obvious. "NO COLLUSION" because there is no mention of collusion. This all about independent Russian action. Very sophisticated and very well funded Russian action.

So Trump will be right, NO COLLUSION (proven) but holy shit that man and all of his Russian ties, who does nothing but suck Putin's dick while looking for approval for his technique, should be no where near confidential/secret government information.

[malchior]

As to No Collusion...that door is definitely not closed with this phrase at the beginning of the Indictment:

...Defendents knowingly and intentionally conspired with each other (and with persons known and unknown to the Grand Jury) to defraud the United States...

[Skinypupy]

Well! Seems like it's going to be marginally harder for Republicans to rotely assert that there's nothing to uncover. Although I'm sure that they're still going to try.

The early responses on social media seem to be some combination of:

- "See, it was all Russia. Americans had nothing to do with it"
- "People simply expressing opinions on which candidate they favor isn't illegal."
- (my personal favorite) "The indictment specifically mentions that these people actively worked on influencing others not to support Clinton. This proves that it's a liberal witchhunt!"

[Enough]

Also, there are lots of reports that Gates - Manafort's second in command- is close to a plea deal with Mueller.

Those two guys on Trump's team with legal pads better kick it up a notch.

I want to see Manafort pay as much (or maybe even more) as I do Trump, no deals for him.

[LordMortis]

- (my personal favorite) "The indictment specifically mentions that these people actively worked on influencing others not to support Clinton. This proves that it's a liberal witchhunt!"

dafuq?

[Rip]

And after the election of Trump as president in November 2016, the defendants used fake personas to organize and coordinate political rallies in support of Trump, while also doing the same to create rallies "protesting the results" of the election, the indictment said.

On one day, Nov. 12, 2016, the defendants organized a rally in New York to "show your support for President-elect Donald Trump" while at the same time organizing a "Trump is NOT my president rally" that also was held in New York.

Rosenstein said there is no allegation in the indictment that any American was a knowing participant in the scheme, nor is there any allegation that the scheme affected the outcome of the election.

"By in or around May 2014, the organization's strategy included interfering with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, with the stated goal of "spread[ing] distrust towards the candidates and the political system in general," the indictment said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/16/russian ... probe.html

Nothing really surprising.

[Unagi]

I think you mean "Nothingreallysurprising Burger"

[LordMortis]

And after the election of Trump as president in November 2016, the defendants used fake personas to organize and coordinate political rallies in support of Trump, while also doing the same to create rallies "protesting the results" of the election, the indictment said.

On one day, Nov. 12, 2016, the defendants organized a rally in New York to "show your support for President-elect Donald Trump" while at the same time organizing a "Trump is NOT my president rally" that also was held in New York.

Rosenstein said there is no allegation in the indictment that any American was a knowing participant in the scheme, nor is there any allegation that the scheme affected the outcome of the election.

"By in or around May 2014, the organization's strategy included interfering with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, with the stated goal of "spread[ing] distrust towards the candidates and the political system in general," the indictment said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/16/russian ... probe.html

Nothing really surprising.

[El Guapo]

Also, there are lots of reports that Gates - Manafort's second in command- is close to a plea deal with Mueller.

Those two guys on Trump's team with legal pads better kick it up a notch.

I want to see Manafort pay as much (or maybe even more) as I do Trump, no deals for him.

There is probably a lot of overlap (though not 100%) between what Gates knows and what Manafort knows - that's part of the suspicion of why Mueller arrested them together - so I imagine that the price of a plea deal for Manafort is going up.

[El Guapo]

And after the election of Trump as president in November 2016, the defendants used fake personas to organize and coordinate political rallies in support of Trump, while also doing the same to create rallies "protesting the results" of the election, the indictment said.

On one day, Nov. 12, 2016, the defendants organized a rally in New York to "show your support for President-elect Donald Trump" while at the same time organizing a "Trump is NOT my president rally" that also was held in New York.

Rosenstein said there is no allegation in the indictment that any American was a knowing participant in the scheme, nor is there any allegation that the scheme affected the outcome of the election.

"By in or around May 2014, the organization's strategy included interfering with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, with the stated goal of "spread[ing] distrust towards the candidates and the political system in general," the indictment said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/16/russian ... probe.html

Nothing really surprising.

That picture is perfect.

[Kurth]

The early responses on social media seem to be some combination of:

- "See, it was all Russia. Americans had nothing to do with it"
- "People simply expressing opinions on which candidate they favor isn't illegal."
- (my personal favorite) "The indictment specifically mentions that these people actively worked on influencing others not to support Clinton. This proves that it's a liberal witchhunt!"

I actually struggle with this one on some level. What is the criminal act?

- Is it that they were using false identities? That's practically assumed on the Internet and throughout social media. News flash: I'm not really Kurth, and I bet you're not really Skinypupy!
- Is it that they were spreading false information? Again, isn't that pretty much an everyday occurrence?
- Is it that they are foreign nationals? Hard to see how that could be an element to a criminal offense.

I'm going to try to find some time this afternoon to read through the indictment. But I have a tough time with the notion that propagation of "fake news" by foreign nationals (or citizens, for that matter) with the intent to influence the election is a criminal offense.

Also, is this anything more than symbolic? It's not like Russia is going to send the 13 Russian nationals over here to stand trial or that the 3 Russian entities will make an appearance. I suppose, if convicted, we could bar them from reentry into the U.S., but I doubt that's going to keep them up at night or really dis-incentivize this kind of thing going forward. What other sentence/penalty are the indicted parties really likely to face?

I'd be much, much more interested in learning that Trump and his cronies were working with these individuals/entities. That seems to me to clearly cross many, many lines and actually be something our justice system could address. Severely.

[Isgrimnur]

[Skinypupy]

I'd be much, much more interested in learning that Trump and his cronies were working with these individuals/entities. That seems to me to clearly cross many, many lines and actually be something our justice system could address. Severely.

That's seems to be the key question here. If not, then I'm with you in that this isn't much more than a symbolic gesture.

If so...then it's a whole different story.

[LordMortis]

The early responses on social media seem to be some combination of:

- "See, it was all Russia. Americans had nothing to do with it"
- "People simply expressing opinions on which candidate they favor isn't illegal."
- (my personal favorite) "The indictment specifically mentions that these people actively worked on influencing others not to support Clinton. This proves that it's a liberal witchhunt!"

I actually struggle with this one on some level. What is the criminal act?

- Is it that they were using false identities? That's practically assumed on the Internet and throughout social media. News flash: I'm not really Kurth, and I bet you're not really Skinypupy!
- Is it that they were spreading false information? Again, isn't that pretty much an everyday occurrence?
- Is it that they are foreign nationals? Hard to see how that could be an element to a criminal offense.

I'm going to try to find some time this afternoon to read through the indictment. But I have a tough time with the notion that propagation of "fake news" by foreign nationals (or citizens, for that matter) with the intent to influence the election is a criminal offense.

Also, is this anything more than symbolic? It's not like Russia is going to send the 13 Russian nationals over here to stand trial or that the 3 Russian entities will make an appearance. I suppose, if convicted, we could bar them from reentry into the U.S., but I doubt that's going to keep them up at night or really dis-incentivize this kind of thing going forward. What other sentence/penalty are the indicted parties really likely to face?

I'd be much, much more interested in learning that Trump and his cronies were working with these individuals/entities. That seems to me to clearly cross many, many lines and actually be something our justice system could address. Severely.

The crimes of conspiracy aside, which is the premise. There are a lot of details about identity theft and credit fraud and entering the US illegally running rampant through the indictment to support the conspiracy to undermine the election via foreign influence.

[LordMortis]

I'd be much, much more interested in learning that Trump and his cronies were working with these individuals/entities. That seems to me to clearly cross many, many lines and actually be something our justice system could address. Severely.

That's seems to be the key question here. If not, then I'm with you in that this isn't much more than a symbolic gesture.

If so...then it's a whole different story.

Nothing in the indictment that I could tell implicates any knowing COLLUSION from Trump or his cronies.

[El Guapo]

The early responses on social media seem to be some combination of:

- "See, it was all Russia. Americans had nothing to do with it"
- "People simply expressing opinions on which candidate they favor isn't illegal."
- (my personal favorite) "The indictment specifically mentions that these people actively worked on influencing others not to support Clinton. This proves that it's a liberal witchhunt!"

I actually struggle with this one on some level. What is the criminal act?

- Is it that they were using false identities? That's practically assumed on the Internet and throughout social media. News flash: I'm not really Kurth, and I bet you're not really Skinypupy!
- Is it that they were spreading false information? Again, isn't that pretty much an everyday occurrence?
- Is it that they are foreign nationals? Hard to see how that could be an element to a criminal offense.

I'm going to try to find some time this afternoon to read through the indictment. But I have a tough time with the notion that propagation of "fake news" by foreign nationals (or citizens, for that matter) with the intent to influence the election is a criminal offense.

Also, is this anything more than symbolic? It's not like Russia is going to send the 13 Russian nationals over here to stand trial or that the 3 Russian entities will make an appearance. I suppose, if convicted, we could bar them from reentry into the U.S., but I doubt that's going to keep them up at night or really dis-incentivize this kind of thing going forward. What other sentence/penalty are the indicted parties really likely to face?

I'd be much, much more interested in learning that Trump and his cronies were working with these individuals/entities. That seems to me to clearly cross many, many lines and actually be something our justice system could address. Severely.

From skimming the identity the core violations are these:

(1) Fraud - lying about your identity and other details in order to circumvent U.S. elections laws, and lying to banks and other financial institutions;
(2) Identity theft (aggravated identity theft, for what that's worth)

There's some stuff in there about destruction of evidence too, though I'm not sure whether that's separately charged. I printed out the indictment and am going to read through it on my way home.

As for the practical impact, they're not likely to be arrested anytime soon. But being wanted by the United States is no small thing - obviously they can't travel to the U.S., and also they can't really risk traveling to most other countries, as a lot of them would be inclined to arrest them and send them to the United States. Also any assets that can be tied to these individuals are at risk of forfeiture.

But yes, the real action is to come - the indictments of U.S. based individuals, "known and unknown" to the grand jury, who assisted the scheme.

[El Guapo]

I'd be much, much more interested in learning that Trump and his cronies were working with these individuals/entities. That seems to me to clearly cross many, many lines and actually be something our justice system could address. Severely.

That's seems to be the key question here. If not, then I'm with you in that this isn't much more than a symbolic gesture.

If so...then it's a whole different story.

Nothing in the indictment that I could tell implicates any knowing COLLUSION from Trump or his cronies.

It's one piece of the puzzle. This basically establishes (assuming that the allegations are true) a scheme by Russian nationals to influence the 2016 presidential election in favor of Donald Trump. It also establishes that there are other individuals "known and unknown to the Grand Jury" who assisted the scheme. The evidence of collusion by the Trump campaign with this scheme is things like the June 2016 Trump Tower meeting (including the e-mails beforehand to Donald Jr. offering Russian government assistance to the Trump campaign), all the stuff in the Papadapolous plea deal, and the 100,000 other suspicious pro-Russia ties and acts by people high up in the Trump world. And everything that Flynn and Gates are telling Mueller.

[Rip]

I'd be much, much more interested in learning that Trump and his cronies were working with these individuals/entities. That seems to me to clearly cross many, many lines and actually be something our justice system could address. Severely.

That's seems to be the key question here. If not, then I'm with you in that this isn't much more than a symbolic gesture.

If so...then it's a whole different story.

Seems unlikely. These guys(and girls) went through great pains to hide the fact the were Russians. You would need not only contact but proof the American knew they were Russian. Lots of contacts identified in the indictment and not a single one was made aware they were Russian. I mean why would they after setting up a VPN for the sole purpose of appearing as Americans. Outing themselves as Russian to someone would have no upside.

[LordMortis]

I mean why would they after setting up a VPN for the sole purpose of appearing as Americans. Outing themselves as Russian to someone would have no upside.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_ ... ussia.html

The researchers quickly dismissed their initial fear that the logs represented a malware attack. The communication wasn’t the work of bots. The irregular pattern of server lookups actually resembled the pattern of human conversation—conversations that began during office hours in New York and continued during office hours in Moscow. It dawned on the researchers that this wasn’t an attack, but a sustained relationship between a server registered to the Trump Organization and two servers registered to an entity called Alfa Bank.

[Rip]

I mean why would they after setting up a VPN for the sole purpose of appearing as Americans. Outing themselves as Russian to someone would have no upside.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_ ... ussia.html

The researchers quickly dismissed their initial fear that the logs represented a malware attack. The communication wasn’t the work of bots. The irregular pattern of server lookups actually resembled the pattern of human conversation—conversations that began during office hours in New York and continued during office hours in Moscow. It dawned on the researchers that this wasn’t an attack, but a sustained relationship between a server registered to the Trump Organization and two servers registered to an entity called Alfa Bank.

Not the same people. But even so you would still have to show that the US person was aware they were communicating with a Russian concerning "electioneering". Very few people would be aware of the locations of servers they were communicating through or have any way of verifying the identity/nationality of whomever they are communicating with. If the US person were duped, which in all the cases in the indictment was true, then the US person has committed no crime.

[Jeff V]

If the US person were duped, which in all the cases in the indictment was true, then the US person has committed no crime.

That's gonna be your defense strategy, huh?

[Rip]

If the US person were duped, which in all the cases in the indictment was true, then the US person has committed no crime.

That's gonna be your defense strategy, huh?

Not mine, I'm not a political activist. All of the people who were duped thus far were identified as political activists.

I don't electioneer for Americans or foreigners and I don't donate to political causes.

[Alefroth]

I'd be much, much more interested in learning that Trump and his cronies were working with these individuals/entities. That seems to me to clearly cross many, many lines and actually be something our justice system could address. Severely.

That's seems to be the key question here. If not, then I'm with you in that this isn't much more than a symbolic gesture.

If so...then it's a whole different story.

Nothing in the indictment that I could tell implicates any knowing COLLUSION from Trump or his cronies.

If it's there, it won't come out before a Trump indictment.

[GreenGoo]

Er, that's circumstantial evidence that communication between money laundering russian bank and the Drumpf org took place during the election.

Also suspicious that the connection went away when made public only to reappear (how dumb are these people?) In another part of the Drumpf org.

It's clear to me that Meuller is establishing facts one at a time, so that each can be vetted and attacked and finally spun and accepted. Once the reps accept something as true but meaningless, Meuller will tie them all together with a nice big indictment bow. One fact will support another and with the reps on record that each fact is true individually, it will be much more difficult to repute the conclusions based on the facts as a whole.


Whether it works or not is another question.

Still waiting patiently for the end game.

[Skinypupy]

I'd be much, much more interested in learning that Trump and his cronies were working with these individuals/entities. That seems to me to clearly cross many, many lines and actually be something our justice system could address. Severely.

That's seems to be the key question here. If not, then I'm with you in that this isn't much more than a symbolic gesture.

If so...then it's a whole different story.

Nothing in the indictment that I could tell implicates any knowing COLLUSION from Trump or his cronies.

If it's there, it won't come out before a Trump indictment.

My guess is that this is intended to kick over a rock to see what might scatter from underneath.

If there are those in the campaign who are connected to/paid for/actively recruited the activities of these Russians, you can bet they just got really nervous. If not, then there's no real risk in indicting them as a symbolic gesture.

[Smoove_B]

Well, as others have stated, if the FBI has demonstrated that there was clearly intent and action on the part of Russian actors to influence the election in such a way as to propel Donald Trump into power, the first hurdle has been cleared. Now it's just a matter of demonstrating how much help they had.

We already discussed (months and months ago) that the Russians likely didn't care exactly who was elected; they were more interested in meddling in the process as it shakes the core of democracy in what was the greatest nation on Earth. However, given all the other smoke it sure doesn't seem like Trump was "only pawn in the game of life". I guess we'll need to wait and see what Mueller shares next.

[YellowKing]

I don't think Mueller is the kind of guy who deals in "symbolic gestures."

[hepcat]

Trump's ego will not let this stand. Commence the Tweetifying!

[Fitzy]

Seems unlikely. These guys(and girls) went through great pains to hide the fact the were Russians. You would need not only contact but proof the American knew they were Russian. Lots of contacts identified in the indictment and not a single one was made aware they were Russian. I mean why would they after setting up a VPN for the sole purpose of appearing as Americans. Outing themselves as Russian to someone would have no upside.

These aren't kids playing a prank who were indicted: Yevgeny Prigozhin

Why would a billionaire have bothered to finance the attacks? And one close to Putin at that.

[LordMortis]

Trump's ego will not let this stand. Commence the Tweetifying!

That's what I'm waiting for. With the exception of his sheep, there is no good PR for this. If he's suddenly silent, he looks like evil. If he's NO COLLUSION, he looks evil. All we need for Unagi to post  Trump 
 

[YellowKing]

I don't care whether you believe there was actual collusion or not, the mere fact that Trump vehemently denies Russian meddling even after intelligence community proof and indictments should send GIANT red flags. What US President, who had no shady ties with Russia, would need to come out so strongly against that? Why wouldn't you just say, "Yes, there was meddling, we will take proper steps to ensure this doesn't happen again" and move on?

Also, I dreamed last night that Trump resigned. I don't believe in psychic phenomena, but this is one case where I REALLY hope that was prophecy.

[Fitzy]

I don't care whether you believe there was actual collusion or not, the mere fact that Trump vehemently denies Russian meddling even after intelligence community proof and indictments should send GIANT red flags. What US President, who had no shady ties with Russia, would need to come out so strongly against that? Why wouldn't you just say, "Yes, there was meddling, we will take proper steps to ensure this doesn't happen again" and move on?

Also, I dreamed last night that Trump resigned. I don't believe in psychic phenomena, but this is one case where I REALLY hope that was prophecy.

I have no idea if collusion took place or not, but I believe I can answer your questions.

Trump is a Narcissist. He has to believe that he and he alone won the election. He can give tiny bits of credit to people he chose, but even there the greatest amount goes to him. Now along comes people saying he wouldn't have even won without the Russians help. His narcissism will not let him acknowledge that. He will do and say anything, it's even possible he believes it all at this point, because he is simply that great.

This opinion is a combination of years of close proximity to a narcissist and talking with experts on assholes narcissists. I could be wrong, but it does fit.

Also, I'd like to retire, could you dream me winning the lottery, I'll toss in $10 million to you. You might need to dream me buying a ticket too though.