The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

[Alefroth]

And idiots who minimize the significance of an adversarial government meddling in our elections.

[Smoove_B]

That's not how I took her comments. I didn't watch the video

Watch the video. After being told they were Russians, she straight up denies it. I want to believe she was thinking the news reporter was accusing her of knowingly collaborating with Russians (he wasn't) so she was being defensive. Instead she comes off as someone denying reality (which she could also be doing). Then when pressed:

“I don’t care if they were involved or not,” she told a CNN reporter when confronted about her involvement in Russia-backed events organized by the Being Patriotic Facebook page. “That’s the least important thing.”

[YellowKing]

blame idiots that think a few stupid troll ads got Trump elected.

Whether or not Russian influence actually pushed him over the edge or not is irrelevant (and unprovable). However, that doesn't mean we should just ignore a foreign power trying to sway our elections. Well unless you're the President and are being blackmailed by them, that is.

[Moliere]

The Backfire Effect

The Misconception: When your beliefs are challenged with facts, you alter your opinions and incorporate the new information into your thinking.

The Truth: When your deepest convictions are challenged by contradictory evidence, your beliefs get stronger.

Works great for religion too.

[Sepiche]

The Backfire Effect

The Misconception: When your beliefs are challenged with facts, you alter your opinions and incorporate the new information into your thinking.

The Truth: When your deepest convictions are challenged by contradictory evidence, your beliefs get stronger.

Works great for religion too.

Actually, the latest research suggests the Backfire Effect has been overstated in previous studies:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=2819073

Across all experiments, we found no corrections capable of triggering backfire, despite testing precisely the kinds of polarized issues where backfire should be expected. Evidence of factual backfire is far more tenuous than prior research suggests. By and large, citizens heed factual information, even when such information challenges their ideological commitments.

Good analysis of the study here.

Further there is evidence that to some extent people not only ignore facts, they may think that facts are not important. They may conclude that the specific fact they are being presented is not relevant to their ideological belief. Or they may believe that facts in general are not important.

What that generally means is that they dismiss facts as being biased and subjective. You have your facts, but I have my facts, and everyone is entitled to their opinion – meaning they get to choose which facts to believe.

Of course all of this is exacerbated by the echochamber effect. People overwhelmingly seek out sources of information that are in line with their ideology.

I think it is very important to recognize that the backfire effect is a small or perhaps even nonexistent phenomenon. The problem with belief in the backfire effect is that it portrays people as hopelessly biased, and suggests that attempts at educating people or changing their mind is fruitless. It suggests that the problem of incorrect beliefs is an unfixable inherent problem with human psychology.

Certainly there are psychological effects strongly at play when it comes to how people form their beliefs, but immunity to facts is not necessarily one of them. Rather, it seems that culture and behavior play a large role, and those are modifiable variables.

This will not be the final study in this area to be sure, but it indicates that the Backfire Effect as currently understood is probably not widespread.

[Kurth]

Another sad aspect of this whole mess is that I think the Russian efforts are only going to push us further into tribalism.

When confronted with viewpoints I find particularly absurd (usually from the MAGA folks), one of my first reactions now is to question whether or not they're even a real person or just a Russian troll-bot.

Could anything be more de-humanizing?

We're quickly headed to a place where the only "real" opinions are those that align more or less with our own perspective.

[Carpet_pissr]

We're quickly headed to a place where the only "real" opinions are those that align more or less with our own perspective.

I think we're already there.

[Isgrimnur]

The Hill

A judge on Thursday rejected a motion from former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort to modify the terms of his bail agreement.

U.S. District Court Judge Amy Berman Jackson wrote in court documents that Manafort's proposal to pledge his property in Alexandria, Va., as part of his $10 million bond was "unsatisfactory" as the property is already pledged as collateral for a loan on one of Manafort's other properties.

Berman also ruled that Manafort must prove he is current with his mortgage payments on another property located on New York's Fifth Avenue in order for it to be pledged as part of his bond.

December

A federal judge has released former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort from house arrest on $10 million bail.

Manafort will be allowed to live at his home in Florida and will be under curfew and GPS monitoring.

He'll be able to travel to Washington for court appearances and to meet with his legal team, but he otherwise must stay in two counties in Florida.

Manafort can't go near any airports, train stations or bus stations unless he gets approval for travel from the judge in advance. Manafort already surrendered his passports when he was arrested, and now his wife Kathleen will surrender hers, according to the judge's order.
...
To back his bail, Manafort offers four homes as collateral, including the one in Florida, plus his apartment in Alexandria, Virginia, and two properties in New York. His wife will secure his bail by placing $5 million an account, and his daughter Andrea Manafort Shand will place $2 million in another account.

Manafort struggled for the last seven weeks to secure a change to his bail conditions, which his lawyers said "severely impacted his ability to earn a living," according to an earlier filing.

The special counsel's office sought proof that his real estate properties were worth the $11 million-plus he said they were. The prosecutors also attempted to kill a proposed change to his bail last week after they discovered he had worked on an op-ed for a Ukrainian English-language newspaper that praised his political efforts in Ukraine.

[Unagi]

in the case of a flight risk, what is the point of letting someone pledge their valuable homes as bail.... I mean - if they are going to leave the country and skip bail - wouldn't the property be the easiest asset to just seize anyhow?

[Isgrimnur]

It prevents them from liquidating it or transferring it to fund their flight. Of course, if you can somehow convince them to take something that was already going to be seized by the bank, then it's just bonus. Isn't that how wealth creation works?

[GreenGoo]

It's probably the difference between a lawsuit and court battle after seizing the property versus having documentation that says Manafort willingly gave up the property.

Or maybe it's just less red tape. No idea.

[Isgrimnur]

Bloomberg

Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and a former associate were indicted for a second time on new charges including failure to report income to tax authorities, in a move that could increase the pressure on them to cooperate with the investigation by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
...
In the superseding indictment filed on Thursday in federal court in Washington, they face new charges of tax evasion and bank fraud.

Prosecutors say that more than $75 million flowed through offshore accounts controlled by Manafort. Manafort, with Gates’s help, laundered more than $30 million in income that he had concealed from the U.S. Treasury Department and Justice Department, they said. Gates collected about $3 million in income that he, too, concealed, they said.
...
The pressure on Manafort heightened further in a court filing unsealed on Feb. 16. Prosecutors said in the document that he engaged in a “series of bank frauds and bank fraud conspiracies” not charged in his indictment. Those frauds relate to a mortgage on a Virginia property that Manafort seeks to pledge to secure his $10 million bail, according to the filing.

Manafort “provided the bank with doctored profit and loss statements” from his company for 2015 and 2016, while “overstating its income by millions of dollars,” prosecutors said.

Gates, meanwhile, brought in a new defense team after three lawyers sought to quit on Feb. 1, without publicly citing their reasons.

[Pyperkub]

"Could" increase the pressure? I doubt there's any question about that...

[hepcat]

Fingers crossed that one of those two has the director's cut of the Pee Tape.

[Zarathud]

Failure to file on foreign accounts, plus tax? Owch. That's going to hurt.

BTW, this will be the easiest way to indict Trump -- undisclosed money in offshore accounts where they're not paying US taxes.

[malchior]

Manafort and Gates are fucked. Absolutely fucked. Why they aren't dealing is anyone's guess at this point (actually I'll take a guess later in this post). The indictment lists things that Mueller must have evidence to support. Hands down. For instance, here is my favorite so far reading the indictment.

They were securing a loan by lying about their income. So Manafort couldn't figure out how to convert PDF to DOC. Manafort emailed Gates an original P&L for one company in PDF. Gates converts it to Word. Emails it back. Manafort falsifies it. Emails it back to Gates. Gates turns it back into PDF and sends it to Manafort. Manafort sends it to the lender. ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME. Gates' lawyer must have been like plea guilty...it is your only hope. I can only imagine Gates is thinking that Russians are literally going to murder him unless he goes down. It is the only thing that makes sense at this point. So he fired the lawyer who must have said something along the lines of, 'I 100% do not recommend taking this to trial. You are beyond fucked you knuckle head.'

(As some flavor text here - I've conducted many electronic investigations over the years - and I've never ever, ever seen a paper trail so blatant in my life. It is not even feasible to me because there are several easy ways to do that without creating a before/during/after image that details exactly what you did like this chain of events does. It is stupefying.)

[Chaz]

So either these are the stupidest criminals ever, or they made it stupidly obvious in hopes that this was found, prosecuted, and they stop investigating?

I'd put my money on stupidest criminals ever who never expected to win the election, so wouldn't be subjected to scrutiny.

[Daehawk]

I know little of whats going on and understand less but I must say I am enjoying the investigation quiet a bit.

[Grifman]

"Could" increase the pressure? I doubt there's any question about that...

Manfort's 70. Conviction on these charges would have him end his life prison. If he's got something to offer, now's the time to pony up.

[Jeff V]

Fingers crossed that one of those two has the director's cut of the Pee Tape.

You're going to die happy if this ever gets released, aren't you?

[Remus West]

Fingers crossed that one of those two has the director's cut of the Pee Tape.

You're going to die happy if this ever gets released, aren't you?

At this point there is probably a pee tape out there with a Trump-impersonator that would get him there.

[Isgrimnur]

Fingers crossed that one of those two has the director's cut of the Pee Tape.

You're going to die happy if this ever gets released, aren't you?

At this point there is probably a pee tape out there with a Trump-impersonator that would get him there.

You don't want to search for 'deepfakes'. Especially not on any work machine.

[Blackhawk]

Fingers crossed that one of those two has the director's cut of the Pee Tape.

You're going to die happy if this ever gets released, aren't you?

At this point there is probably a pee tape out there with a Trump-impersonator that would get him there.

You do realize, don't you, that you just invoked Rule 34?

[El Guapo]

Gates' lawyer must have been like plea guilty...it is your only hope.

He did.

[El Guapo]

So Mueller now has multiple cooperating witnesses at high levels and at key points in the relevant conduct. There can't be that much that he doesn't know at this point. Manafort can probably shed a little more light on things if and when he cracks, but other than that...kind of seems like the Trump interview (and dealing with that) is the last major hurdle.

[LordMortis]

I keep seeing Hannover Fist every time I read about these. Stay strong Manfort!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHgMsvpFm08

[Holman]

So Mueller now has multiple cooperating witnesses at high levels and at key points in the relevant conduct. There can't be that much that he doesn't know at this point. Manafort can probably shed a little more light on things if and when he cracks, but other than that...kind of seems like the Trump interview (and dealing with that) is the last major hurdle.

Is it known whether Mueller has interviewed Kushner or Don Jr.?

Obviously the Trump Tower meeting is of major interest to the investigation, but I don't recall hearing that the participants (other than Manafort) have been brought in.

[Max Peck]

So Mueller now has multiple cooperating witnesses at high levels and at key points in the relevant conduct. There can't be that much that he doesn't know at this point. Manafort can probably shed a little more light on things if and when he cracks, but other than that...kind of seems like the Trump interview (and dealing with that) is the last major hurdle.

Is it known whether Mueller has interviewed Kushner or Don Jr.?

Obviously the Trump Tower meeting is of major interest to the investigation, but I don't recall hearing that the participants (other than Manafort) have been brought in.

Mueller's team interviewed Kushner back in November. I've seen reporting indicating that Mueller wants to interview Don Jr, but nothing indicating that it has happened yet.

[El Guapo]

So Mueller now has multiple cooperating witnesses at high levels and at key points in the relevant conduct. There can't be that much that he doesn't know at this point. Manafort can probably shed a little more light on things if and when he cracks, but other than that...kind of seems like the Trump interview (and dealing with that) is the last major hurdle.

Is it known whether Mueller has interviewed Kushner or Don Jr.?

Obviously the Trump Tower meeting is of major interest to the investigation, but I don't recall hearing that the participants (other than Manafort) have been brought in.

Everyone who we know has spoken with Mueller (as of Feb. 1st).

Kushner has spoken with Mueller, though it looks like Trump Jr. hasn't yet (though Trump Jr. appears to have testified before a Senate committee).

[Enough]

ABC obtained a letter from Gates that pretty much definitively indicates dude is a cooperating witness,

In the letter obtained by ABC News, Gates writes to family and friends “despite my initial desire to vigorously defend myself, I have had a change of heart,” Gates explained. “The reality of how long this legal process will likely take, the cost, and the circus-like atmosphere of an anticipated trial are too much. I will better serve my family moving forward by exiting this process.”

[El Guapo]

ABC obtained a letter from Gates that pretty much definitively indicates dude is a cooperating witness,

In the letter obtained by ABC News, Gates writes to family and friends “despite my initial desire to vigorously defend myself, I have had a change of heart,” Gates explained. “The reality of how long this legal process will likely take, the cost, and the circus-like atmosphere of an anticipated trial, along with the high probability that I will otherwise spend a decade or two in federal pound-you-in-the-ass prison, are too much. I will better serve my family, and my own interest in not spending a very long time in jail, moving forward by exiting this process.”

Mortoned.

[Paingod]

I thought federal prisons were resorts that kept your family out for you so you can get some peace and quiet.

State prisons, on the other hand...

[El Guapo]

Also interesting about Gates pleading guilty (and Flynn before him) is it suggests to me that neither is comfortable relying on Trump pardoning them. Presumably some mix of Mueller leveraging Schneiderman, worry about the political costs of such pardons, and/or just a desire to not go through the criminal trial process, suggests that they're finding cooperating to be more appealing. Which is interesting.

[Enough]

I thought federal prisons were resorts that kept your family out for you so you can get some peace and quiet.

State prisons, on the other hand...

I mean it is scenic around here.

[Isgrimnur]

Business Insider: White Collar Prisons

[pr0ner]

ABC obtained a letter from Gates that pretty much definitively indicates dude is a cooperating witness,

In the letter obtained by ABC News, Gates writes to family and friends “despite my initial desire to vigorously defend myself, I have had a change of heart,” Gates explained. “The reality of how long this legal process will likely take, the cost, and the circus-like atmosphere of an anticipated trial are too much. I will better serve my family moving forward by exiting this process.”

Via @Popehat:



Basically he needs to be pleading guilty because he's actually guilty and not looking to avoid the costs of a trial or waffling if he wants any breaks at sentencing.

[malchior]

In the letter obtained by ABC News, Gates writes to family and friends “despite my initial desire to vigorously defend myself, I have had a change of heart,” Gates explained. “The reality of how long this legal process will likely take, the cost, and the circus-like atmosphere of an anticipated trial are too much. I will better serve my family moving forward by exiting this process.”

I was going to quote this too - Mueller has emails in his hand showing the exact details of a conspiracy to commit bank fraud. Not pleading guilty would have been idiotic (unless it gets him the polonium).

[El Guapo]

Gates is pleading guilty to lying to the FBI *on February 1st*. After he first pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI last year.



February 1st is also the date that his previous attorneys filed to withdraw. So....probably not a coincidence there.

[Isgrimnur]

Where's our sun-chicken smilie?

[Holman]

link

Some time ago, Republicans on our committee released a declassified memo that omitted and distorted key facts in order to mislead the public and impugn the integrity of the FBI.

We can now tell you what they left out:

The text of the Democratic response to the Nunes memo is linked in the tweet.

Most of the Nunes memo was focused on presenting Carter Page as the innocent victim of surveillance overreach. This document (which I have only skimmed so far) appears to present the case that the FBI considered Page not only a security risk but an actual asset of Russian intelligence.