The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

[Pyperkub]

Per Mr Fed, Cohen is in a world of hurt:

So apparently Michael Cohen's team told @MichaelAvenatti -- no doubt as part of a meet and confer process -- that Cohen will take the Fifth in the Stormy Daniels case and they are going to move for a stay or proceedings (not yet filed). /1

/2 This is a Big Deal. As I suggested earlier this week, the search -- and clear implication that Cohen is at least a subject and probably a target now -- hideously complicated his position in the Daniels case....

Thread goes on.

[malchior]

Was he leading a cuffed Trump out?

Nah, was a routine meeting about congressional document requests.

Was this sarcastic? Can't tell. To those playing at home - this was a potentially ominous meeting. Trump's collaborator in Russia investigation obstruction Nunes has been waging a battle to get documents from the DOJ/FBI about the origin of the Russia investigation. So Rosenstein and Boente are pulled extemporaneously to the WH to talk about 'document requests'. Of which Trump is a subject of the investigation. We know it wasn't scheduled because Rosenstein was scheduled to make remarks elsewhere. I can't help but feel like some memos about remarks made at that meeting are being recorded as we speak.

[Holman]

Uh-oh. WaPo: Trump’s allies worry that federal investigators may have seized recordings made by his attorney.

President Trump’s personal attorney Michael D. Cohen sometimes taped conversations with associates, according to three people familiar with his practice, and allies of the president are worried that the recordings were seized by federal investigators in a raid of Cohen’s office and residences this week.

Cohen, who served for a decade as a lawyer at the Trump Organization and is a close confidant of Trump, was known to store the conversations using digital files and then replay them for colleagues, according to people who have interacted with him.

“We heard he had some proclivity to make tapes,” said one Trump adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the ongoing investigation. “Now we are wondering, who did he tape? Did he store those someplace where they were actually seized? . . . Did they find his recordings?”

It is unknown whether Cohen taped conversations between himself and Trump. But two people familiar with Cohen’s practices said he recorded both business and political conversations. One associate said Trump knew of Cohen’s practice because the attorney would often play him recordings Cohen had made of his conversations with other top Trump advisers.

“It was his standard practice to do it,” this person said.

Nixons gonna Nix.

[YellowKing]

Why are they worried? I thought Trump hasn't done anything wrong and this is all a witch hunt.

[Sepiche]

I would be more convinced than ever that we're all living in a simulation if this president is also brought down by secret recordings and hubris.

[Remus West]

I would be more convinced than ever that we're all living in a simulation if this president is also brought down by secret recordings and hubris.

As bad as Nixon was he doesn't scratch the surface of what Trump has done. Trump has (even if only by taking advantage of the inclinations already there) subverted an entire political party and made them his lap dogs. Nixon's republican party turned on him when the evidence began to show through. If the republican party had as much back bone now as it had then Trump would have been impeached May 10th 2017.

[Defiant]

Nixon's republican party turned on him when the evidence began to show through. If the republican party had as much back bone now as it had then Trump would have been impeached May 10th 2017.

My understanding is that it was after his approval rate had tumbled substantially below where Trump's has been by that point. (plus, the Democrats had the majority in congress, so they were able to impeach him without any Republican support).

[msteelers]

I would be more convinced than ever that we're all living in a simulation if this president is also brought down by secret recordings and hubris.

As bad as Nixon was he doesn't scratch the surface of what Trump has done. Trump has (even if only by taking advantage of the inclinations already there) subverted an entire political party and made them his lap dogs. Nixon's republican party turned on him when the evidence began to show through. If the republican party had as much back bone now as it had then Trump would have been impeached May 10th 2017.

I don't think this is quite accurate. From 538.

Even as Nixon aides resigned and the Watergate controversy grew around the president in 1973, many congressional Republicans were arguing that the investigations of the president were overly aggressive. Two future GOP presidents, George H.W. Bush (then chairman of the Republican National Committee) and Reagan (then governor of California), called Nixon and assured him that he could get through the scandal. Things escalated in October 1973 when Nixon ordered the firing of the special prosecutor investigating his administration, leading both the attorney general and deputy attorney general to resign, in what is now known as the “Saturday Night Massacre.”

But Nixon retained party loyalists in Congress even after that dramatic move to stop those investigating him. The House Judiciary Committee held a series of votes about recommending Nixon’s impeachment in July 1974. All 21 committee Democrats, and six committee Republicans, voted for the first article of impeachment, which essentially accused Nixon of obstructing the investigation of the Watergate break-in. The other 11 Republicans voted against that article. There were three articles of impeachment against Nixon. Nineteen Democrats voted for all three articles of impeachment. Just one Republican did. A majority of the Republicans on the committee, 10 of the 17, voted against all three articles.

Nixon resigned before the full House voted on impeachment, partly because Republican officials finally began abandoning him. But Nixon didn’t step down until Aug. 8, 1974, more than two years after the Watergate break-in.

I didn't realize that it took 10 months to go from the Saturday Night Massacre to congressional Republicans forcing Nixon to resign.

[msteelers]

Nixon's republican party turned on him when the evidence began to show through. If the republican party had as much back bone now as it had then Trump would have been impeached May 10th 2017.

My understanding is that it was after his approval rate had tumbled substantially below where Trump's has been by that point. (plus, the Democrats had the majority in congress, so they were able to impeach him without any Republican support).

Here's Nixon's approval rating over time.

Interesting that in January 1973 he was at 67% approval. By the time of the Saturday Night Massacre it was down to 30%. It finished at 24% when he resigned. The first big drop came after G. Gordon Liddy and James McCord are convicted for their role in Watergate. Then it drops again right around the time that Nixon refuses to hand over his tapes and cooperate with the investigation.

[YellowKing]

I didn't realize that it took 10 months to go from the Saturday Night Massacre to congressional Republicans forcing Nixon to resign.

That's the depressing piece about all this. Even if Trump gets nailed to the wall by Mueller in the next couple of months, the gears of justice will likely grind so slowly that he won't be out until late 2019 at the earliest. And Trump doesn't strike me as the type that will give up as "easily" as Nixon did.

[LawBeefaroni]

I didn't realize that it took 10 months to go from the Saturday Night Massacre to congressional Republicans forcing Nixon to resign.

That's the depressing piece about all this. Even if Trump gets nailed to the wall by Mueller in the next couple of months, the gears of justice will likely grind so slowly that he won't be out until late 2019 at the earliest. And Trump doesn't strike me as the type that will give up as "easily" as Nixon did.

On the plus side, that means he won't have the somewhat respectful send off that Nixon had. The last images of the Trump White House won't be him boarding Marine One with his family and a salute, it will be Trump leaving alone out a back gate on a tricycle holding a lollypop. Or something like that.

[msteelers]

That's ridiculous.

Nobody believes Trump can ride a bike and hold a lollipop at the same time.

[Remus West]

Looks like I need to brush up on my watergate history so I can shame the radio here the way I have been shamed. I hang my head and leave now to educate myself.

That's ridiculous.

Nobody believes Trump can ride a bike and hold a lollipop at the same time.

Riding? I picture him sitting on it and scooting his feet to make it move.

[Remus West]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... l-ratings/

Interesting link (I think I initially saw it here but didn't bother to go look) on Trump's approval ratings. He has been above 50% disapproval since day 56. Day 6 saw his highest approval rating at 47.8%.

Over half the nation has disapproved of the clown from the start but he is still being shielded. Nixon was very popular when he was being shielded. Sort of speaks to the trust the current Republicans have in their gerrymandering (and the polarization of the nation as far as coastal regions versus interior).

[El Guapo]

I think there's a ~ 60% chance that Trump fires Rosenstein this afternoon or evening.

[Smoove_B]

Over half the nation has disapproved of the clown from the start but he is still being shielded.

Don't undervalue the importance of stiggin it. I'm betting that ~33% of poll respondents only cares about a relatively small grouping of topics. And as long as President Trump continues stiggin it to the "left wing crybabies", they don't care about Syrians, global trade, what the EU thinks about us or environmental regulations. Stiggin it above all else - that's what's important.

[Smoove_B]

I think there's a ~ 60% chance that Trump fires Rosenstein this afternoon or evening.

On a Friday when temps are soaring into the 70s? He'll do it Sunday when he's trapped inside because it's cold and rainy.

[Remus West]

Over half the nation has disapproved of the clown from the start but he is still being shielded.

Don't undervalue the importance of stiggin it. I'm betting that ~33% of poll respondents only cares about a relatively small grouping of topics. And as long as President Trump continues stiggin it to the "left wing crybabies", they don't care about Syrians, global trade, what the EU thinks about us or environmental regulations. Stiggin it above all else - that's what's important.

I would think those people are in the approval group rather than the disapproval.

[Smoove_B]

Sorry, I think I was reading between the lines and assuming you were still surprised that we're not at 75%+ disapproval ratings. Yes, 50%+ currently disapproves, but the days where I believe he'll ever go below 35% have passed. The fact that he's sitting around 40% is beyond shameful.

[msteelers]

I think there's a ~ 60% chance that Trump fires Rosenstein this afternoon or evening.

Please no. I've got Disney plans this weekend.

[Remus West]

Sorry, I think I was reading between the lines and assuming you were still surprised that we're not at 75%+ disapproval ratings. Yes, 50%+ currently disapproves, but the days where I believe he'll ever go below 35% have passed. The fact that he's sitting around 40% is beyond shameful.

Saddened but no longer surprised. Hell, I know people that support him mostly because they have their heads in the sand and haven't really listened to or read anything he has been doing. They just approve because he is who they voted for to avoid "crooked Hillary". Some of them are even people I used to respect. Which is just further saddening.

[NickAragua]

I think there's a ~ 60% chance that Trump fires Rosenstein this afternoon or evening.

Please no. I've got Disney plans this weekend.

Yeah, really. I don't want to be in the middle of Texas when the civil war starts. Can he wait a couple of weeks?

[Blackhawk]

The polls I was looking at earlier show a consistent 80-90% approval from Republicans with a constant single-digit approval from Democrats. It's the first number that's keeping him afloat, and it's staying there because his only supporters at this point are the 'deny reality' supporters that can't see past their blinders.

For them, disapproving of him at this point means 1) admitting they've been wrong all along, and 2) turning against their own party, family, and friends. Either they lack the introspection to pull that off, or they know, but they're hiding from their own cognitive dissonance.

[malchior]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... l-ratings/

Interesting link (I think I initially saw it here but didn't bother to go look) on Trump's approval ratings. He has been above 50% disapproval since day 56. Day 6 saw his highest approval rating at 47.8%.

Over half the nation has disapproved of the clown from the start but he is still being shielded. Nixon was very popular when he was being shielded. Sort of speaks to the trust the current Republicans have in their gerrymandering (and the polarization of the nation as far as coastal regions versus interior).

It is also why the country is ripping apart at the seams. Trump is the ends ... not the cause.

[Holman]

Sorry, I think I was reading between the lines and assuming you were still surprised that we're not at 75%+ disapproval ratings. Yes, 50%+ currently disapproves, but the days where I believe he'll ever go below 35% have passed. The fact that he's sitting around 40% is beyond shameful.

Saddened but no longer surprised. Hell, I know people that support him mostly because they have their heads in the sand and haven't really listened to or read anything he has been doing. They just approve because he is who they voted for to avoid "crooked Hillary". Some of them are even people I used to respect. Which is just further saddening.

It's worth remembering that a pretty significant chunk of Americans seek no news at all other than the weather report. Add to that the number who've closed themselves off into a Fox-only bubble, and it all looks more explicable.

[Carpet_pissr]

For them, disapproving of him at this point means 1) admitting they've been wrong all along, and 2) turning against their own party, family, and friends. Either they lack the introspection to pull that off, or they know, but they're hiding from their own cognitive dissonance.

As I've stated before, I think 1) above is the real issue.

[noxiousdog]

The polls I was looking at earlier show a consistent 80-90% approval from Republicans with a constant single-digit approval from Democrats. It's the first number that's keeping him afloat, and it's staying there because his only supporters at this point are the 'deny reality' supporters that can't see past their blinders.

For them, disapproving of him at this point means 1) admitting they've been wrong all along, and 2) turning against their own party, family, and friends. Either they lack the introspection to pull that off, or they know, but they're hiding from their own cognitive dissonance.

I know it's anecdotal, but I don't believe that number. My family is decidedly Republican and they do not approve of him at all. It's similar with work folks.

[LordMortis]

I know it's anecdotal, but I don't believe that number. My family is decidedly Republican and they do not approve of him at all. It's similar with work folks.

My family would never register as republican but they would largely self identify in a republican way. They don't approve of him, but they accept him. OtOH, that acceptance is waning and as I mentioned over Easter, things like the alt-right has gone from topics they'd selectively not be able to hear to something they want to go away, like the the rest of us. While not the GOP's base and never rabid Trump supporters, it's an aspect of his support this is slowly turning on him and have already turned on the GOP led Congress (though they still find a sure fire way to make sure the Democrats and giving away what's been earned are the forefront of their Congressional displeasure)

[El Guapo]

The polls I was looking at earlier show a consistent 80-90% approval from Republicans with a constant single-digit approval from Democrats. It's the first number that's keeping him afloat, and it's staying there because his only supporters at this point are the 'deny reality' supporters that can't see past their blinders.

For them, disapproving of him at this point means 1) admitting they've been wrong all along, and 2) turning against their own party, family, and friends. Either they lack the introspection to pull that off, or they know, but they're hiding from their own cognitive dissonance.

I know it's anecdotal, but I don't believe that number. My family is decidedly Republican and they do not approve of him at all. It's similar with work folks.

I know - I'm also pretty sure that Clinton is president, because I don't know anyone who voted for Trump.

[Blackhawk]

I know it's anecdotal, but I don't believe that number. My family is decidedly Republican and they do not approve of him at all. It's similar with work folks.

I don't have time to link search right now, but it was all Gallup data.

[Sepiche]

I've felt the same way with some of the polling numbers out there.

I think one factor that leads to a disconnect between polls and the anger we see at Drumpf comes down to who's being polled. Lots of those polls are only talking to registered voters, and the others are targeting likely voters, and it's up to the pollster to determine who constitutes a "likely" voter.

And lets also focus in on one thing that gets lost in a lot of the talk about the last election... there are lots of factors that pushed Drumpf over the top, but the bottom line is lots of moderate and left leaning voters stayed home for various reasons... they didn't like Clinton, they thought she would win, they were Burnie supporters, etc.

Those people, by and large, are VERY energized now and are just waiting to voice their anger at Drumpf at the polls. If you add those people who may or may not be considered likely voters with the people who have never voted, are energized against Drumpf, and wouldn't be counted in even likely voter polls by many methodologies, I think there's a good case to be made that Drumpf's favorability is overstated by at least a few points, and a his un-favorability is being understated.

Now, granted that may all be wishful thinking, but I feel like I would start slipping into despair if 40% of the country TRUELY supported what Drumpf is doing.

[El Guapo]

I've felt the same way with some of the polling numbers out there.

I think one factor that leads to a disconnect between polls and the anger we see at Drumpf comes down to who's being polled. Lots of those polls are only talking to registered voters, and the others are targeting likely voters, and it's up to the pollster to determine who constitutes a "likely" voter.

And lets also focus in on one thing that gets lost in a lot of the talk about the last election... there are lots of factors that pushed Drumpf over the top, but the bottom line is lots of moderate and left leaning voters stayed home for various reasons... they didn't like Clinton, they thought she would win, they were Burnie supporters, etc.

Those people, by and large, are VERY energized now and are just waiting to voice their anger at Drumpf at the polls. If you add those people who may or may not be considered likely voters with the people who have never voted, are energized against Drumpf, and wouldn't be counted in even likely voter polls by many methodologies, I think there's a good case to be made that Drumpf's favorability is overstated by at least a few points, and a his un-favorability is being understated.

Now, granted that may all be wishful thinking, but I feel like I would start slipping into despair if 40% of the country TRUELY supported what Drumpf is doing.

I trust the polling better than our own intuitive sense based on people we know, or what we think people must believe. People believe all sorts of crazy shit. So I really have no doubt that somewhere around 40% of the country supports Trump. I will say that I think much / most of that is not especially *informed* support, but is along the lines of "Trump is fighting terrorism and standing up to international corporations, and I don't like either of those things". I think if his supporters actually learned (and believed) what Trump's actually doing, that support percentage would drop precipitously.

[Carpet_pissr]

How many here would take a call from a pollster (assuming you didn't know the incoming call #), take the 7 minutes to answer the poll?

The way I use the phone these days, a pollster would never get to talk to me. I WOULD be interested in answering some questions and vent some anger, but again, would never happen to me or probably most people I know. Can we make any assumptions about people who both answer calls from unknown callers in 2018 AND would take the time to go through a poll?

[Sepiche]

I trust the polling better than our own intuitive sense based on people we know, or what we think people must believe. People believe all sorts of crazy shit. So I really have no doubt that somewhere around 40% of the country supports Trump. I will say that I think much / most of that is not especially *informed* support, but is along the lines of "Trump is fighting terrorism and standing up to international corporations, and I don't like either of those things". I think if his supporters actually learned (and believed) what Trump's actually doing, that support percentage would drop precipitously.

I trust the polls are giving an accurate representation of the groups they are trying to poll, my suspicion is that likely and registered voter models aren't an accurate reflection of the country as a whole at the moment.

[El Guapo]

How many here would take a call from a pollster (assuming you didn't know the incoming call #), take the 7 minutes to answer the poll?

The way I use the phone these days, a pollster would never get to talk to me. I WOULD be interested in answering some questions and vent some anger, but again, would never happen to me or probably most people I know. Can we make any assumptions about people who both answer calls from unknown callers in 2018 AND would take the time to go through a poll?

Those are absolutely issues, but they're something that pollsters have methods of accounting for. And at the end of the day, at least on election outcomes, polling averages are actually pretty reliable (though rarely 100% on the nose).

[El Guapo]

I trust the polling better than our own intuitive sense based on people we know, or what we think people must believe. People believe all sorts of crazy shit. So I really have no doubt that somewhere around 40% of the country supports Trump. I will say that I think much / most of that is not especially *informed* support, but is along the lines of "Trump is fighting terrorism and standing up to international corporations, and I don't like either of those things". I think if his supporters actually learned (and believed) what Trump's actually doing, that support percentage would drop precipitously.

I trust the polls are giving an accurate representation of the groups they are trying to poll, my suspicion is that likely and registered voter models aren't an accurate reflection of the country as a whole at the moment.

I agree that the democratic base is likely to turn out in higher numbers than the republican base in the 2018 mid-terms. That's not to question Trump's favorability polling, though, just that the "unfavorable voters" are likely to show up more than the favorable voters.

[Enough]

Apparently Fox Business is reporting that Trump fired Rosenstein? Did they report a bit early, fake news, or?

[El Guapo]

Apparently Fox Business is reporting that Trump fired Rosenstein? Did they report a bit early, fake news, or?

Still, there's rumors swirling. I'm raising my Rosenstein firing odds to 80%.

[Captain Caveman]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 9718895616

Very stable genius.

[Enough]

Apparently Fox Business is reporting that Trump fired Rosenstein? Did they report a bit early, fake news, or?

Still, there's rumors swirling. I'm raising my Rosenstein firing odds to 80%.

Ah, so it's more of a "We report, so he decides right" kind of thing again?