The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

[Captain Caveman]

Trump’s first twitter response is a low-energy joke. Trump telling jokes? You know he’s out of sorts.

[Zaxxon]

I hate to keep saying it, but nothing is going to happen.

I wish I could strongly disagree. Unfortunately, I think you're right, barring a major blue wave in November.

[stessier]

I hate to keep saying it, but nothing is going to happen.

I wish I could strongly disagree. Unfortunately, I think you're right, barring a major blue wave in November.

I don't think there are enough seat in play, are there? An impeachment conviction in the Senate requires a 2/3 majority. So even if the House flips and they manage to impeach, it's still dead in the Senate.

[Zaxxon]

I hate to keep saying it, but nothing is going to happen.

I wish I could strongly disagree. Unfortunately, I think you're right, barring a major blue wave in November.

I don't think there are enough seat in play, are there? An impeachment conviction in the Senate requires a 2/3 majority. So even if the House flips and they manage to impeach, it's still dead in the Senate.

I don't necessarily mean enough to actually impeach. If it gets close, perhaps some more Rs grow a spine.

I know, I know. Wishful thinking.

[Defiant]

He made the extraordinary admission that he paid a pornographic actress “at the direction of the candidate,” referring to Mr. Trump

Waiting to hear from Trump supporters that Cohen is really referring to candidate Clinton.

[Octavious]

Trump supporters won't even know about it. It's not even on the front page of Fox News anymore. Not big enough news.

[Skinypupy]

I hate to keep saying it, but nothing is going to happen.

I wish I could strongly disagree. Unfortunately, I think you're right, barring a major blue wave in November.

I don't think there are enough seat in play, are there? An impeachment conviction in the Senate requires a 2/3 majority. So even if the House flips and they manage to impeach, it's still dead in the Senate.

I don't necessarily mean enough to actually impeach. If it gets close, perhaps some more Rs grow a spine.

I know, I know. Wishful thinking.

While I'd agree that impeachment is basically a non-starter, this is my hope as well. But yeah...wishful thinking.

The best scenario is a House flip in November to potentially mitigate some of the flailing the administration is currently engaged in.

[Captain Caveman]

I hate to keep saying it, but nothing is going to happen.

Interesting thread here by Chris Hayes on this widely shared belief. It seems likely that the sentiment is probably true but that the pervasiveness of the sentiment in large part enables it to be true.



Click the tweet to read the rest of the thread.

[Captain Caveman]

Ha ha ha ha.

[Zaxxon]

I hate to keep saying it, but nothing is going to happen.

Interesting thread here by Chris Hayes on this widely shared belief. It seems likely that the sentiment is probably true but that the pervasiveness of the sentiment in large part enables it to be true.



Click the tweet to read the rest of the thread.

Yeah, I imagine that it's very much self-fulfilling. Of course yesterday's events should be different. But there have been so many dozens of things that have happened since the election (hell, leading up to the election) that should have been disqualifying events for this administration, and here we are.

So we're in a bit of a catch-22. If only a small handful of R congresscritters were not terrible, horrible, not-good, very awful people...

[Skinypupy]

Ha ha ha ha.

From the comments in that thread:

"A large number of icebergs never came into contact with the Titanic."

[Skinypupy]

Pardon incoming!

I feel very badly for Paul Manafort and his wonderful family. “Justice” took a 12 year old tax case, among other things, applied tremendous pressure on him and, unlike Michael Cohen, he refused to “break” - make up stories in order to get a “deal.” Such respect for a brave man!

[Smoove_B]

Trump supporters won't even know about it. It's not even on the front page of Fox News anymore. Not big enough news.

I was looking at news sites in our state last night and I had to stop because of the people commenting. The focus? They couldn't believe Manafort was being punished by the law but that Hillary and Bill Clinton were still free. I honestly don't know how these people function in society.

[Carpet_pissr]

Anyone like seeing Rick Santorum squirm on live TV about this mess? Also, this interview may break the record for "number of times the word "smarmy" is used in a single TV exchange". And used incorrectly, to boot IMO.

https://youtu.be/Frqsfl6GZ5U

[Blackhawk]

We can only hope that there are a few Rs with consciences who will, eventually, see Trump cross a line that overcomes their self-interest.

We can't count on it, we can't expect it, but we can hope.

[Smoove_B]

If you can stomach the 13 minutes, it's amazing to watch Sean Hannity and Brett Baier try to provide the "news". You might want to hold on to your desk as the spin gets intense.

[Sepiche]

Nothing to see, just the President of the United States praising omertà.

Indeed.

[Captain Caveman]

Mr. Fed writing in the NY Times today. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/22/opin ... eller.html

For now, Mr. Trump’s status as president likely immunizes him from indictment and prosecution. But he’s not immune from impeachment, nor is he immune from being implicated as an unindicted co-conspirator in a raft of other indictments. Especially if Democrats manage the blue wave of their dreams in the midterms, the once-cocky fixer Michael Cohen, now humbled, could find himself a star witness at hearings on impeachment of our 45th president. And that’s why you always pay your lawyer.

[LawBeefaroni]

Nothing to see, just the President of the United States praising omertà.

Indeed.

Indeed indeed.


My very first thought when I saw the Trump tweet:

[Trent Steel]

Nothing to see, just the President of the United States praising omertà.

Indeed.

Indeed indeed.


My very first thought when I saw the Trump tweet:

[YellowKing]

I don't know where this pervasive sense of surrender is coming from.

You don't think the GOP will throw Trump under the bus as soon as it's politically expedient to do so?

Trump may have shaken up politics, but he didn't rewrite the rules. If the media stays on top of this (as they will), and as more and more revelations come out (as they will), the public tide will shift (moreso than it already has) and the GOP will have no recourse but to either go down with the ship or cut bait and run.

There is no way in hell Trump comes out of this unscathed, short of the GOP actively deciding to be complicit in his crimes and destroying their electability for years to come.

[tjg_marantz]

[Defiant]

I don't know where this pervasive sense of surrender is coming from.

You don't think the GOP will throw Trump under the bus as soon as it's politically expedient to do so?

Trump may have shaken up politics, but he didn't rewrite the rules. If the media stays on top of this (as they will), and as more and more revelations come out (as they will), the public tide will shift (moreso than it already has) and the GOP will have no recourse but to either go down with the ship or cut bait and run.

The thing is that I don't think a shift in the public tide will get the GOP to reverse course (well, maybe some of the moderate Republicans that rely on independent voters might), but rather I think it probably needs to be a shift in the Republican voters - and as yet, we haven't seen any sign that they have shifted to any significant degree (of course, it doesn't help that those who have shifted no longer call themselves Republicans)

[GreenGoo]

'xactly.

We've seen that Drumpf's base just does not care. Drumpf says witch hunt and they believe him/ignore reality.

It has nothing to do with GOP loyalty and everything to do with getting those who voted for him to turn on him. But they voted for him BECAUSE they knew he was a scumbag. Telling them he's a scumbag doesn't change anything. They knew he was a scumbag during the election.

He's their scumbag. If self interest doesn't move these people, you think financial crimes will? Everybody does it. It's how you get elected. He just outplayed the Dems at their own game and now the deep state has sour grapes.

Let me ask you this YK. Did any of this news impact your personal circle of Drumpf supporters? Even a little?

[em2nought]

Mr. Fed writing in the NY Times today. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/22/opin ... eller.html

Especially if Democrats manage the blue wave of their dreams in the midterms

I guess you folks don't see the multiple #WalkAway videos getting posted daily that I do. Maybe those are Russian bots? LMAO

[Carpet_pissr]

If you can stomach the 13 minutes, it's amazing to watch Sean Hannity and Brett Baier try to provide the "news". You might want to hold on to your desk as the spin gets intense.

Damn you, Smoove, I watched about 10 minutes before I became a little nauseous.

Hey dumbass, your 13 minute diatribe can be countered VERY easily, with a 2 second Google search:

"In appointing Mueller, however, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein gave him broad authority not only to investigate "any links and/or coordination between the Russian government and individuals associated" with Trump's campaign, but also to examine "any matters that arose or may arise directly from the investigation."

[Sepiche]

Hey dumbass, your 13 minute diatribe can be countered VERY easily, with a 2 second Google search:

"In appointing Mueller, however, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein gave him broad authority not only to investigate "any links and/or coordination between the Russian government and individuals associated" with Trump's campaign, but also to examine "any matters that arose or may arise directly from the investigation."

Not to mention Manafort's Russia related trial hasn't started yet.

[Holman]

I really don't expect half of senate Republicans to grow a spine and impeach Trump.

But here's the limited sunrise scenario:

Dem control of the House gives them committee control with the power to subpoena documents and testimony. This significantly hinders Trump's agenda. Meanwhile, watching the GOP *not* support impeachment while subpoenaed proof of corruption piles up could seal the fate of the whole party in 2020.

[Paingod]

ButteryMALES!

It all ties into a grand conspiracy...

[Carpet_pissr]

Great little piece in The Atlantic that explains something I have been mulling for a couple weeks now, culminating in the "LOCK HER UP!" chanting, hours after yesterday's court proceedings. And DRAIN THE SWAMP. I had almost posted something to the effect of "this makes no damn sense. I'm starting to suspect the swamp means different things to different people."

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... on/568147/

[GreenGoo]

I guess you folks don't see the multiple #WalkAway videos getting posted daily that I do. Maybe those are Russian bots? LMAO

Your lack of irony is amazballs.

[LawBeefaroni]

Great little piece in The Atlantic that explains something I have been mulling for a couple weeks now, culminating in the "LOCK HER UP!" chanting, hours after yesterday's court proceedings. And DRAIN THE SWAMP. I had almost posted something to the effect of "this makes no damn sense. I'm starting to suspect the swamp means different things to different people."

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... on/568147/

Tl;dr, "swamp" means "brown people" to Trump supporters.

[Daehawk]

Saw where he and the other gop have started using the dead girl's photo in pushing for the wall again. Didn't even give the family time to grieve before he starts using her image as a political statement.

[Archinerd]

Benghazi, Emails, Chappaquiddick!

[Captain Caveman]

Saw where he and the other gop have started using the dead girl's photo in pushing for the wall again. Didn't even give the family time to grieve before he starts using her image as a political statement.

Seems like they may have jumped the gun...



Even if he was illegal, it's just so ugly and transparently racist to highlight a single crime as somehow indicative of a wider criminality among undocumented immigrants. There are dozens of murders a day in this country and this is the one that matters to them.

[YellowKing]

Let me ask you this YK. Did any of this news impact your personal circle of Drumpf supporters? Even a little?

I haven't discussed it with any of them, but I imagine not. But again, they don't matter. Hardcore Trump supporters would never vote for a Democrat anyway.

The GOP doesn't have the numbers to appeal solely to their base. They have to pull in swing voters and independents, and nothing right now is helping their case. It's even worse than that, because the scandal will also reduce morale among their base making them less likely to show up to the polls.

There's a big difference between a Trump voter and a Trump supporter. I know a lot of Trump voters who regret ever having pulled the level for him. They are the ones that are going to make a difference in November.

[GreenGoo]

I admire your optimism. I hope you are correct. Wait, I'm certain you are correct, for a certain number of them.

[noxiousdog]

The reality is Trump's base is mostly irrelevant. All we need is the people that sit at home to vote instead. Every time more information comes out, it's more likely it's going to motivate someone to vote.

[YellowKing]

Another way to look at it (and why my outlook is pretty upbeat):

Trump already lost the popular vote in 2016.

Now subtract the people that only voted for him because they didn't like Hillary.

Add in the people who didn't show up because "Hillary had it in the bag."

Throw in those Jill Stein voters.

You start to see how razor thin Trump's victory actually was. The GOP doesn't have the numbers. And yes, gerrymandering has an effect but it's not insurmountable. Otherwise we'd have no hope of a Blue Wave, and all these special elections where Dems have won or made double-digit gains in red districts would not be possible.

[GreenGoo]

The reality is Trump's base is mostly irrelevant. All we need is the people that sit at home to vote instead. Every time more information comes out, it's more likely it's going to motivate someone to vote.

Don't disagree.

At the same time, I'm mildly surprised there aren't riots at this point. Your country is being lead by a transparent 2 bit con-artist. And while media outrage is at a constant pitch, enough people seem to be mostly ok with that.

If we ignore everything else, just the idea that he is enriching himself at the american peoples' expense should be enough to have people in arms. Well, imo of course.